Month: November 2024

Authored by J.G.Martinez via The Organic Prepper blog,

A total economic and social collapse is a catastrophic event characterized by the widespread dysfunction of critical systems, including government, economy, infrastructure, and basic services. While such a scenario is extreme, recognizing early warning signs can be crucial.

I have been monitoring the Cuba scenario.

To me, that is the definition of a failed State holding to the remains of a collapsed country ruled by thugs terrified of a popular armed uprising.

As our economy was destroyed by design, to control the population and crush the opposition among other goals, I believe I can describe the indications better than someone who never watched this happening.

In my research, a few events arose, as expected. Nevertheless, there were a couple of not-so-evident things that I’m going to point out.

By now, most of you reading this are very much aware of the loom and doom that destroyed the Venezuelan economy, and even these days, we feel panic every time the exchange rate with the USD changes.

For this past month (Oct. 2024), it went up 13%.

Enough to shake many people and make others begin thinking again about migrating.

Meanwhile, we have a single-digit “growing”, and a 50% inflation…in USDs. (This year!)

It is awesome to see how, despite oil production increasing at a snail’s pace, inflation seems to be looming again. It has been up almost 15% since 2022.

Here are some key indicators:

Economic Indicators

• Hyperinflation: Uncontrolled inflation that rapidly erodes the value of currency. Shortly after the bus driver got into the Palace we started to see how our currency started this infamous process. This was so severe that it wiped off most of the wealth and living standards. We haven’t been able to recover it ever since 2015 when it started. This is so self-explanatory that there is not too much need for further discussion.

• Commodity Shortages: Severe shortages of essential goods like food, water, and fuel. At the present moment, supermarkets are overflowing with all kinds of products. Of course, getting the money to buy them is the hard part. Most of them come from Brazil, for the sake of money laundering schemes related to gold, and the fees charged by the concession of the narcotics trafficking routes control to the “producers”. But can’t prove it though.

• Mass Unemployment: it occurs when a significant portion of a nation’s workforce is unable to find suitable employment. Here, “suitable” refers to jobs that align with an individual’s existing skills and experience. Unemployment in large amounts, is often viewed as a symptom of a deeper malaise within a society. It can serve as a powerful indicator of a nation’s economic health and can signal the onset of more severe societal problems. Mass unemployment is a financial issue at its core. When a large number of people are out of work, it has a ripple effect throughout the economy. Consumer spending decreases as people have less disposable income. Businesses are forced to lay off more workers because of the decline in demand, in a downward spiral.

• Recession/Depression: This can lead to a recession or even a depression, depending on the severity and duration of the unemployment. The effect of mass unemployment deteriorates the nation’s tax base. With fewer people working and paying taxes, governments have less revenue to fund essential services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. This can lead to a decline in the quality of life for citizens and further erode the nation’s competitiveness. The social consequences of mass unemployment are equally profound. High unemployment rates are often associated with increased crime rates, societal unrest, and political instability.

• Uptick in property crime: When people are searching for work without success, they may turn to desperate measures to support themselves and their families. I have seen this happening. This means an increase in property crime, drug use, and other serious antisocial behaviors. We have experienced first-hand how mass unemployment is eroding the social cohesion. It is not as if we had faith in the ruling gang to begin with, but re-engineering of our social fabric executed by Cuban agents made it much worse. This led to a breakdown of social trust and made it difficult for communities to come together to solve problems. Mass unemployment can have a significant impact on a nation’s political landscape, and Venezuela is (sadly) one of the most relevant examples in modern History. Discontent with the handling of the economy can lead to political instability and even regime change (as it is already happening, happily!). Populist politicians often exploit the economic anxieties of unemployed workers to gain power, promising easy solutions to complex problems.

• Unsustainable Debt: A national debt that exceeds a country’s capacity to repay. An enormous external debt has exacerbated Venezuela’s economic crisis. This situation brings along a payload of negative consequences that have made our circumstances even worse. Let’s define this: debt is considered unsustainable when a country is incapable of paying back the interest or principal on its loans. This situation is known to generate a crisis involving both economic and societal aspects. The government is then forced to allocate a large portion of its resources to debt service, rather than investing in areas such as health, education, and infrastructure.

Traditionally, our country has experienced a weakness in the public sector regarding these three areas mentioned above. The trend then goes downhill with time, as the real responsible for the crisis are those controlling all the aspects of the public financial system, including the monetary policy. There are no experts that want to be involved in that mess, by the way; most of the “official” public “servants” with middle rank and choice makers don’t have neither the skills nor the will to do something to improve the situation. Their only goal is to perform as financial operators to help them in the cover-ups. The 100% control of the price of the USD is what makes our Central Bank a joke.

• Financial Market Collapse: The collapse of stock markets and a general loss of confidence in financial institutions. Mind you, in the most recent post-apo movie that sparkled our interest in one of the streaming sites, one of the main characters could read something was happening…in the charts of the stock exchanges of the world. I have read some good fiction, and it’s quite interesting to see how some of the characters are related to the financial world and can read the writings and make some predictions.

Social Indicators

• Increased Violence: crime, civil unrest, and social conflict are (obviously) among the most visible.

As a side note, why wait for this to happen? Any sane prepper should know that leaving early to avoid a potentially harmful situation is the way to go. You don’t have a place to Bug Out? Can you Bug in safely for a while until things clear up? Can you Bug out at all? Include here the State-sponsored actions to “pacify” the country and you will see how advanced the collapse is. Another failed State that we should be looking at is Cuba. The collapse is total there. Over one million people left in 2023 only. 

Add this book to your library to keep all the Organic Prepper articles on dangerous times in your library.

• Mass Migration: A large-scale exodus of people seeking better living conditions. I consider this as the most painful indicator. Being part of these statistics, I can say I share encountered feelings regarding this. This is not only the most painful but the most visible. If things were livable, people wouldn’t flee away.

• Family Breakdown: A rise in family disintegration and social issues like poverty, mental health issues like depression, and substance abuse. Another catastrophic effect of all the circumstances mentioned above.

• Infrastructure Collapse: Failures in essential services such as electricity, water, and sanitation.

• Erosion of Trust: A widespread loss of confidence in government, businesses, and other institutions. This should have disappeared in Venezuela like back in the early 60s. The influence of the red Caribbean gang dates from that era, indeed.

Political Indicators

• Political Instability: Weak governance, frequent regime changes, and internal conflict.

• Corruption: Widespread corruption at all levels of government.

• Human Rights Abuses: Restrictions on freedom of speech, political persecution, and state-sponsored violence.

Environmental Indicators

• Environmental Degradation: Severe pollution, deforestation, and biodiversity loss.

• Resource Depletion: Scarcity of essential resources like water and energy.

• Natural Disasters: Increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters.

It’s crucial to note that these indicators often interact and can exacerbate one another.

A total collapse is typically a gradual process, marked by a series of interconnected events. It won´t be like your typical Hollywood collapse, where the family is someday having dinner or hanging out in a mall and the next fighting for survival with a horde of…whatever your favorite monster is.

While it may seem like a distant possibility, understanding the warning signs can help mitigate risks and prepare for potential challenges.

This is not intended to be a political article; on the contrary.

I found it amazing to learn that a war does not have to be necessarily declared; it can unfold without such formalities.

If it’s like this, then I’m afraid we should be pretty much aware of the facts, and the actions of everyone involved in such plays; and pay much less attention to the biased mainstream media nonsense.

A remarkable education success story in Western Maryland plays out in the heart of Trump’s coal country—where “Trump Digs Coal” signs lined the roads during this past election cycle. It’s a heartwarming story of how community, family, traditionalism, and conservative values come together and foster the proper learning environment that allows children at one of Maryland’s poorest elementary schools to achieve massive education outperformance compared with hundreds of other schools in the state. 

Investigative journalist Chris Papst of Fox45 News’ Project Baltimore visited Crellin Elementary School, Maryland’s westernmost school, just about a mile from West Virginia. It’s a Title 1 school, meaning it has a massive concentration of impoverished students. Of the more than 1,400 public schools in the entire state, 464 are considered Title 1.

A public school w/ bee hives, an amphitheater built from coal, hemlock forest, apple orchard, greenhouse, vegetable garden, goats, sheep, chickens, wetlands & a trout stream.

It’s Maryland’s only high-poverty 5-Star school.@FOXBaltimore @GCPSHappeningshttps://t.co/Fat6gYWOlM

— Chris Papst (@chrispapst) November 7, 2024

Of those 464 schools, Crellin is the only one earning a five-star educational excellence rating from the Maryland State Department of Education. 

Even though the children come from some of the poorest households in the state and possibly the nation, the educational miracle at Crellin is very simple: community. 

“We took the walls down to the school and open it up to the community. So, the community is part of our school,” Principal Dana McCauley told Papst. 

Papst’s report continues:

Principal Dana McCauley knows her school, Crellin Elementary, in Garrett County is unique. She knows Crellin is Maryland’s westernmost school, just about a mile from West Virginia. She also knows it’s likely the only one in the state where elementary students walk chickens at recess.

“The kids have a stake in the school?” Asked Project Baltimore’s Chris Papst.

“Oh yes. Yeah. So, they’re responsible for there’s many chores that need done around here. Many chores,” explained McCauley.

“The kids do chores?” Replied Papst.

“They do chores. Yes,” replied McCauley. “There’s all the barn work that needs done. The stalls have to be cleaned, the animals need fed and watered every day. The eggs need collected.”

So, how does this translate to educational success? McCauley says the students feel like the school is “their place” and “they’re invested in it”.

…

So, how did that happen? The story begins 23 years ago.

McCauley has been leading Crellin Elementary since 2001. Not just as its principal, but also as a teacher. And it was in that role that, 23 years ago, she made a life-changing discovery.

“I remember my first year here sitting in class watching some of the kids. And then going outside with them, going down to the stream and watching some of our squirrel-iest kids in the classroom thrive. I thought, there’s got to be something to this,” McCauley told Project Baltimore.

Soon after, McCauley learned Crellin sits on the polluted land of an abandoned coal mine where acid mine draining has colored the rocks orange. At first, to McCulley, that seemed like a big problem. But it was within the rocks that she had an idea.

“It’s good to not know what you don’t know. That makes sense? So, you’re not afraid of the obstacles because you’re not even aware of what they might be,” explained McCauley.

On a whim, McCauley gathered community support and petitioned Garrett County, which awarded the school ownership of a six-acre site of the mine to clean up. That was the moment Crellin’s unique story began.

“We took the walls down to the school and open it up to the community. So, the community is part of our school,” said McCauley.

Over the next few years, the students, staff, parents and neighbors worked to restore the land. Now, there’s thriving wetlands, a hemlock forest and trout stream, which is all made possible by a limestone retention pond the school built to naturally filter and clean the acid mine drainage.

Once the school had fully cleaned the six-acres, McCauley expanded her vision. Maryland does not have sanctioned agricultural programs for elementary schools. So, in 2013, McCauley started her own. Today, Crellin has an apple orchard, greenhouse, vegetable garden and multiple barns with goats, sheep and – of course – chickens.

Parents, according to McCauley, built the hen house. And now it is maintained by the school community, which includes the students.

You see, where the students work is also where they learn. A classroom amphitheater is built from a giant pile of coal covered in dirt. Class is held in the greenhouse all winter long.

Crellin Elementary is a public school. But McCauley says no public education dollars were used for any of the school’s agricultural or coal mine reclamation projects. Over 23 years, McCauley has applied for dozens of local, state and federal agricultural and reclamation grants. She won most of them, collecting hundreds of thousands of dollars for the school and its many projects.

“It’s a lot of work,” McCauley told Project Baltimore.

Work that over two decades has culminated in Crellin’s five-star rating which makes this school one of one in Maryland.

“Is what you’re doing here. Could it be done at any school?” Questioned Papst.

“I think it’d be different. Because this is unique to our community,” explained McCauley. “Because it’s not about the stream. It’s not about the stream. It’s about those who help make that all possible. That’s what it’s all about.”

The education miracle in the mountains of Maryland, at one of the state’s poorest elementary schools, shows that massive budgets aren’t necessary to improve test scores. Instead, community, family, tradition, hard work, and conservative values create an environment that money can’t always buy, uplifting these children spiritually and setting them up for success.

Must Watch: 

On the opposite side of the state, in the liberal hell-hole of Baltimore City, education budgets for the city are nearly $2bln annually, yet test scores are some of the worst in the nation. Papst has led an investigation into a massive grade-switching scandal in the school system.

The educational miracle happening at Crellin should be examined by the folks on Trump’s transition team, some of whom will be lining the education department. Apparently, success can be achieved with local communities—not necessarily by throwing endless amounts of taxpayer funds at school systems hoping for test scores to rise.

Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The EPoch Times,

U.S. authorities thwarted an Iranian plot to assassinate President-elect Donald Trump, new documents reveal.

The Justice Department unsealed criminal charges on Nov. 8 against three men who it is alleged were involved in a murder-for-iran network orchestrated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which the United States designates as a terrorist organization.

“The Justice Department has charged an asset of the Iranian regime who was tasked by the regime to direct a network of criminal associates to further Iran’s assassination plots against its targets, including President-elect Donald Trump,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in an associated statement.

“We will not stand for the Iranian regime’s attempts to endanger the American people and America’s national security.”

The Justice Department said that authorities arrested Carlisle Rivera and Jonathon Loadholt in New York, and that a third man, Farhad Shakeri, remained at large and was believed to be in Iran.

Shakeri immigrated to the United States as a child and was deported in or about 2008 after serving 14 years in prison for a robbery conviction.

The criminal complaint filed in federal court in Manhattan alleges that an unnamed official in the IRGC instructed a Shakeri in September to put together a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump.

Shakeri was unable to create a plan by then, the complaint said, and the official told him Iran would pause its plan until after the presidential election because the official believed Trump would lose and it would be easier to assassinate him then.

Shakeri then went to work building a network of accomplices, offering $100,000 to locate and kill Trump and other individuals of U.S. and Israeli origin, according to the complaint.

“We have also charged and arrested two individuals who we allege were recruited as part of that network to silence and kill, on U.S. soil, an American journalist who has been a prominent critic of the regime,” Garland said.

The plot, with the charges unsealed just days after Trump’s defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election, reflects what federal officials have described as ongoing efforts by Iran to target U.S. government officials, including Trump, on U.S. soil. The Justice Department’s statement said that these efforts include assault, kidnapping, and murder, both to repress and silence dissidents critical of the Iranian regime and to take vengeance for the January 2020 death of then-IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a Trump-ordered U.S. drone strike in Baghdad.

“The charges announced today expose Iran’s continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in an associated statement.

“The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — a designated foreign terrorist organization—has been conspiring with criminals and hitmen to target and gun down Americans on U.S. soil and that simply won’t be tolerated.”

Money market funds saw a very small net outflow (-$2.2BN) last week, leaving them still just shy of the record high…

Source: Bloomberg

On the bank side of the savings world, total deposits (SA) rose $17.5BN to its highest since Sept 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, total deposits jumped a huge $148BN (reversing the prior week’s $133BN deposit decline)…

Source: Bloomberg

Rather oddly, excluding foreign deposits, domestic US banks saw a $22BN net deposit outflow last week on an SA basis during the week-ending 10/30 (but a $113BN inflow on an NSA basis)…

Source: Bloomberg

On an NSA basis, Large banks saw $86BN inflows and Small banks $27BN inflows. However, on an SA basis, large banks saw $21BN outflows and small banks $1.5BN outflows.

Interestingly, loan volumes shrank at small banks but surged for large banks…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, bank deposits at the Fed rose last week (and so did US equity market capitalization to a new record high)…

Source: Bloomberg

Will this ever recouple?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Aborted

“Let folks cast their votes for Trump if that’s their choice. But mark my words, we won’t be certifying the election. He might win, but we’ll ensure he doesn’t step foot in the Oval Office.”

– Jamie Raskin (D-MD)

At last, it appears that the Party of Chaos got its fondest wish: it aborted itself in the 2024 election. “Joe Biden” was the coat-hanger it used: this miserable, grifting, now-senile hack politician who will be remembered only for driving his country to the verge of ruin. And for what? All in an effort to cover-up a long train of crimes and abuses against the American people perpetrated by a permanent bureaucracy gone rogue that was the party’s partner-in-crime. And now it’s over. 

The childishness of the Left — AOC whining about “fascism” — is under-appreciated. Note how the party’s most august mouthpiece, The New York Times, pretends to soul-search in the aftermath of the election debacle.

“Many Democrats were considering how to navigate a dark future, with the party unable to stop Mr. Trump from carrying out a right-wing transformation of American government. Others turned inward, searching for why the nation rejected them. They spoke about misinformation and the struggle to communicate the party’s vision in a diminished news environment inundated with right-wing propaganda”

– The New York Times

The New York Times diminished itself. It drove itself crazy with narratives — just as a crazy person with disordered thoughts can’t discern what’s real and what’s not. What they need is a serious mental health check. The time for incessant lying, hoaxing, and performative hysteria is over. On Thursday, in a three-minute speech, the President-elect set out a clear list of measures to reconstruct a national consensus based on reality. It includes firing a lot of people in the agencies, dis-embedding all the inspector-generals from the departments they oversee, establishing a “truth and reconciliation commission” to declassify and publish documents “related to alleged deep state activities, including spying, censorship, and corruption,” and finding out who exactly at the CIA / FBI / DHS / and other places has been leaking fables and falsehoods to the news media. In other words, clear away a shit-ton of untruth that burdens the consciousness of country.

Though the statement omitted to say so directly, it’s very likely that a number of public officials will find themselves before grand juries in the years ahead. If you haven’t figured it out already, you’ll learn that the term “misinformation” was just the gas in the gaslight used to confound the country about what has really been at stake — which is your personal liberty in what is supposed to be a free country. The Democratic Party and the Deep State blob really did try to steal that from you.

As they stole the 2020 election — which is probably one of the things to be revealed in the process. Look at this bar graph. Note how many millions more votes were cast in the 2020 elections than in the two previous and now in the 2024 contest. How did that happen? Where did that surplus supply come from? The Covid-19 scam provided the cover for a profligate mail-in ballot operation. They deluged the country with paper. Mark Zuckerberg provided $450-million through his cut-out charities to hire thousands of party activists to harvest and fill-out fraudulent ballots, and stuff them in drop-boxes by the hundredweight, with special attention to the crucial precincts in swing states — and that’s what landed the basement-cringing candidate, “Joe Biden,” in the White House.

It was that simple, and that much in-your-face, and for four years the official organs of the news swatted the truth away claiming they were “false, baseless, conspiracy theories” — and half the country was credulous enough to believe that. Or mentally ill, not able to tell fantasy from reality, especially in the newsrooms. Even more shamefully, this half of the country was led by the better-educated, credentialed, managerial class of citizens, who, amazingly, managed to turn intelligence into a new kind of personal liability. (The simplest explanation for that astounding failure is that people who consider themselves “experts” eagerly believe other experts and credentialed authorities, making them easiest to dupe. That’s why the faculty lounges are full of Jacobins.)

The winning side in this contest didn’t vote against Kamala Harris so much as they voted against the Democratic Party, the Party of Chaos, of BLM riots, of drag queens in the school library, of men in the women’s swim lane (and locker room), of forced vaccinations (your bodily autonomy, sister?), of locking up grandmothers who walked through the Capitol rotunda, of state-driven censorship, of malicious political prosecutions, of ruinous proxy war, of flooding the country with criminal alien mutts, of Mao Zedong style erasing of history, of FISA court surveillance, and, finally, of the same sort of self-loathing for the nation that a three hundred pound sophomore with a nose ring and sleeve tattoos feels for herself.

Indeed, the page is turning, but the story has suddenly changed. It remains to be seen whether the Democratic Party blows up altogether now in what’s shaping up to be a time of harsh recrimination, or whether its front-line activists, Marc Elias, Norm Eisen, Mary McCord, Lisa Monaco and Company skulk in the background hatching new schemes to try to drive the republic insane. They’ll have to work fast because the law might be coming after them in January. But they surely know that.

Between now and then, prepare to put your shoulder to the wheel. It’s not just the US government that begs for reform, but many of the secular operations of daily life in America, especially of an economic scene dominated by freakishly gigantic monopolies that have impoverished so many local communities, destroyed livelihoods and whole ways of life, and made slaves of citizens. That story has hardly begun to be told.

The S&P 500 topped 6,000 for the first time ever this week (and its 50th record high of the year) as all the US majors exploded higher the election. Small Caps had their best week since the COVID lockdowns (and liquidity surge) in April 2020…

Market volumes remain extremely elevated, on track for the third consecutive session above 15B shares and the seasonals are still with the trend…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman issued a Franchise Flow Alert:

thru yesterday, aggregate LO demand has been a massive +$12B, after having sold -$10B last week into year-end for 22% of MFs and ahead of the election. 

Today that number is coming down a bit as the entire franchise tilts for sale, but the Mutual Fund squeeze remains the most violent flow dynamic in the market (and, when coupled with Corporate demand – remember Nov/Dec is the busiest 2 months for this cohort – this should be a tailwind for stocks).

Energy and Financials outperformed this week (deregulation)…

Source: Bloomberg

…but overall it was the “Trump Trade” that exploded higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Election-sensitive baskets moved dramatically this week…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA tore back above $1 trillion market cap this week and NVDA continued to push to new record territory, now considerably larger than AAPL…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps were helped by financials but the ‘most shorted’ stocks basket seeing a massive squeeze helped a lot…

Source: Bloomberg

Vix was clubbed like a baby seal as all those hedges were lifted as stocks ripped higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Both stock and bond vol was eviscerated this week (after the election and FOMC)…

Source: Bloomberg

It was a massive week for bonds though (even as vol fell) with Treasury yields spiking and dumping to end with a very much flatter yield curve. Only the short-end of the curve is higher on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

2s10s tumbled back towards inversion once again…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rose for its sixth straight week to its highest weekly close in 5 months…

Source: Bloomberg

What the dollar gained, gold lost this week (worst week since May)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged to its second best week of the year, smashing through record highs, topping $77,000 after Trump was elected…

Source: Bloomberg

BTC ETF inflows exploded higher this week…

Source: Bloomberg

This week also saw Ethereum surge to its best relative performance against BTC since May as DeFi boom hopes are reignited…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices ended the week unchanged, back up at pre-plunge levels from last week’s Iran-Israel non-attacks…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, while pundits panicked, global markets rallied in relief of not four more years of Bidenomics…

Source: Bloomberg

USA sovereign risk has collapsed since Trump’s Red Sweep – not exactly the signal of the stagflationary hellscape that ’51 noble prize winning economists’ predicted.

The once-lucrative European auto market is an utter disaster after numerous brands, including Volkswagen, Mercedes, Aston Martin, BMW, and Stellantis, have warned about a downturn and EV programs hemorrhaging cash while China eats their lunch with cheap EVs. 

Providing more insight into the downturn, Autoblog’s Stephen Fogel penned a note with commentary on each auto brand and his thoughts on whether they will survive the ‘EV Apocaplyse.’ 

“The path to electrification is a very difficult one, for both legacy automakers and EV startups. The recent plateauing of EV demand has put additional pressure on manufacturers that have gone all in on EVs. For those that haven’t, it may be too late,” Fogel said. 

He noted, “Projecting into the future, companies that don’t yet have EVs consumers want to buy are unlikely to make it.” 

Here’s the list: 

• Tesla, the most successful EV startup, has the benefit of a decade-plus head start, which they have used to leapfrog their legacy competition, unburdened by the traditional way of doing things. With an international production base, advanced software-based electronic architecture, and direct-to-consumer sales, Tesla has blazed its own trail and generated the production volume needed to succeed.

• Ford: While the Mustang Mach-e is a credible product, F-150 Lightning production will soon be shut down until next year. Its three-row SUV has been postponed and Ford’s “skunkworks” low-cost EV has not yet been revealed. It doesn’t look good for Ford.

• Lincoln: There are zero Lincoln EVs at this point.

• Chrysler: With a single hybrid minivan and nothing else in the lineup, Chrysler’s going nowhere fast.

• Dodge: How many Charger EVs will be sold to those who love the ICE versions, at $61K and up? Are there any other Dodge EVs coming?

• Ram: The Ram 1500 REV may solve truck owners’ range and towing issues, but at an estimated $58,000-$85,000, will it be embraced by the average truck buyer?

• Alfa Romeo & Fiat: They couldn’t make it here as ICE brands, how will EVs help?

• Maserati: Sales are way down and the boss just got fired. Maser’s got big problems that EVs won’t solve (yes, there is the Folgore).

• Toyota: Regardless of its leadership in hybrids, the company has yet to produce a desirable EV. Can they get their act together in time?

• Lexus: Where’s this brand’s luxury EV leadership? A rebadged Busy Forks doesn’t count.

• Nissan: They blew their lead after the Leaf came out, and the Ariya is far from compelling.

• Infiniti: No EVs. Sales are down significantly the past three quarters. Who’s even shopping them?

• Mazda: The MX-30 was a compliance car. Where is the Mazda EV that’s as good as their ICE vehicles?

• Subaru: It will take more than a so-so Toyota-based EV to appeal to Subaru’s fans.

• Jaguar: Their plan to become an EV-only, low-production, high-end brand is extremely risky.

• Land Rover: Nothing yet. Will parent Tata put up the cash to fund LR’s EV transition?

• Mercedes-Benz: Benz’ EV sales recently dropped 30%, thanks to Chinese competition and high production costs in Germany. The current approach isn’t working.

• Volkswagen: VW has yet to build any desirable, reasonably-priced EVs, which may ultimately be developed in China after their German plants close down. Not looking good.

• Audi: As goes VW, so goes Audi. Just announced closing of its EV plant in Belgium.

• Porsche: They are going all in with EV Macan, Boxster, and Cayman. Will enthusiasts bite? Will Chinese Hyper-EVs undercut them on price?

• Vinfast: Could any EV brand have had a worse start in the US market?

• Rivian: Hoping to reach 57,000 R1 sales this year. If they run out of cash before they get their smaller, higher-volume vehicles out, they’re finished.

• Lucid: Has yet to break the 10,000 vehicles per year mark. If the Saudis tire of pumping money in, and volumes remain low, they won’t last long.

• Polestar: Delivered a total of 32,300 cars worldwide in the first three quarters of 2024. Why are they separate from Volvo and how does this help?

In the US, President-elect Donald Trump’s historic victory over Vice President Kamala Harris will likely result in a new policy shift that will reduce or eliminate vehicle emissions standards under the Environmental Protection Agency.

The administration change could give legacy automakers focusing on petrol-powered vehicles a much longer operating time instead of pushing companies like Ford and GM into ‘all-electric futures’ by the mid-2030s. 

Tesla’s Elon Musk noted in July: “Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla. Also, remove subsidies from all industries!”

Does Tesla come out as the winner?

 

 

 

 

 

Authored by Ivan Pentchoukov and Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

President-elect Donald Trump will reclaim the presidency next year with a wide-ranging agenda for America and a significant electoral mandate to implement his plans.

Having already won 295 Electoral College votes by the afternoon of Nov. 6, Trump was on track to capture the national popular vote and sweep all seven battleground states.

The president-elect was ahead by nearly 4.7 million votes in the national vote as of 11:16 p.m. on Nov. 6 – a 3.3 percentage point margin. He is on track to best his own national totals from 2016 and 2020, having made significant gains in broad swaths of the country, notably in safe blue states, including New Jersey, Illinois, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump’s Democratic opponent, conceded the election in a speech in Washington on the afternoon of Nov. 6. A spokesman for the Trump campaign said Harris called Trump to congratulate him earlier in the day and that “both leaders agreed on the importance of unifying the country.”

Trump’s commanding performance was buttressed by that of the Republican Party, which recaptured the U.S. Senate and was well on its way to winning the House of Representatives. As of 10:39 p.m. on Nov. 6, Decision Desk HQ projected that the GOP had a 90 percent chance to retain control of the lower chamber.

“This was a movement like nobody has ever seen before, and frankly, this was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time,” Trump said in his victory speech.

Should Republicans win both the House and Senate, Trump will face a different Congress from the one he did in his first term that started in 2017. Now, his allies are in charge of the House Republican caucus, and all but a few of his biggest intra-party detractors have been ousted in closely-watched primary contests. In the Senate, the long-time leader of the Republicans, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), is stepping down and setting the stage for a leadership contest all but sure to be decided by Trump’s endorsement.

With allies in both chambers, the president-elect is less likely to run into the legislative roadblocks that characterized his first term in office.

The Senate, in particular, will be key to confirming Trump’s headline Cabinet picks, which would have seemed impossible eight years ago—particularly Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who Trump wants to task with tackling federal food and health agencies.

As the Trump transition team prepares to take the White House, Americans can expect major changes in how the government handles the economy, foreign affairs, illegal immigration, tax policy, and health care.

Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine before Inauguration Day and to launch a massive operation to deport illegal immigrants. As president, he will have the power to achieve both without the help of Congress. The same goes for rolling back the tailpipe emissions rule, which Republicans call a de-facto electric vehicle mandate.

“We’re going to help our country heal. We have a country that needs help, and it needs help very badly,” Trump said.

“We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country.”

The president-elect will have to work with Congress to deliver on some of his other promises, including ending taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income, as well as expanding the child tax credit. Other provisions in his tax plan include reducing corporate taxes to 15 percent from 21 percent, maintaining lower individual taxes and permanently expanding the $2,000 child tax credit.

On the campaign trail, Trump has floated the idea of ending taxation altogether and funding the government through tariffs on foreign goods. He has singled out China for 60 percent import tariffs and, a day before the general election, said he would threaten Mexico with a 25 percent tariff to get the southern neighbor’s help in stemming the flow of illegal immigrants.

To tackle inflation, Trump would boost domestic energy production by increasing oil drilling on public lands and offering tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. He said he would double down on the deregulation agenda he embraced in the first term, with a requirement to cut 10 current regulations for each new one.

The U.S. Capitol building in Washington on Sept. 9, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Trump plans to bring on billionaire Elon Musk to head a new Department of Government Efficiency, which Musk has said will be key to getting inflation under control.

In addition to Musk and Kennedy, Trump’s picks for his Cabinet are likely to include some of the Republicans who challenged him in the primary election, such as North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) and Kennedy’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, are also likely at the front of the line for posts. Gabbard aligned with Trump’s opposition to so-called forever wars abroad. Shanahan is an attorney with experience in Silicon Valley.

The president-elect’s picks will be closely watched because many of the people he selected during his first term ended up turning against him, especially in the aftermath of the contested 2020 election.

Trump challenged the outcome of the 2020 race in seven battleground states and refused to bow out of the race until Jan. 6, 2021, when a crowd of his supporters clashed with police on Capitol grounds and breached the building while Congress certified the results of the election.

After Trump left the White House on Jan. 20, 2021, the Democrats used the events of Jan. 6 to impeach Trump in the House of Representatives, making him the first president to face two impeachments. The Senate exonerated Trump in both cases.

A Trump supporter waves a giant flag outside the White House on Nov. 6, 2024. Former President Donald Trump on Nov. 6 won a sweeping victory in the 2024 presidential election. Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

The impeachment was only the first in a series of unprecedented events that ultimately led to Trump’s comeback four years later. Trump was banned from several social media platforms, had his residence raided by federal agents, faced several indictments on the state and federal levels, posed for a mugshot taken at a Georgia jail, survived two assassination attempts, and went up against two Democratic Party nominees in a single election.

In the face of the challenges, he ran a successful campaign, took control of the Republican National Committee, beat GOP fundraising records, and made gains with parts of the electorate long-aligned with the Democrats, including Hispanics and young men.

“God spared my life for a reason,” Trump said during his victory speech on election night, referring to the assassination attempts on his life.

Trump’s 2024 campaign leaned into interviews with internet influencers, including Joe Rogan, the Nelk Boys, and Logan Paul. The strategy appears to have paid off in attracting young men. Exit polls by Edison Research show Trump gaining 6 percentage points with the group compared to 2020.

One campaign staple remained unchanged from Trump’s first run for the White House: the rallies. The president-elect held 119 of these signature events during the 2022–2024 campaign season. As he did in 2016 and 2020, he held the final rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Trump rallies have evolved over the years to include elements of entertainment and visual aids. Some of the final rallies of the 2024 campaign, including a jam-packed rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City, included live opera performances.

In Trump’s speeches, social media messages, and campaign ads, he focused on the three crises facing the Biden–Harris administration: inflation, the border crisis, and, more recently, the wars in Ukraine and Israel. The current administration has managed to get inflation under control, but illegal border crossings have remained stubbornly high and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East appear to be spiraling out of control.

Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine during the transition period between November and January. He has repeatedly said his top priority on the first day in office would be to seal the southern border with Mexico.

Path to Nomination

To win the 2024 Republican nomination, Trump defeated more than a dozen contenders without participating in any of the four Republican presidential debates.

Several contenders jumped into the race early in 2023 after Trump declared his candidacy in November 2022. By the fall of 2023, the field of candidates began to shrink. Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, withdrew from the race in October 2023. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) dropped out the following month.

Trump comfortably won the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, nearly 30 percentage points ahead of his nearest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Ohio biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out immediately after the caucuses. DeSantis quit the race several days later.

Trump’s former ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, hung on until March before dropping out.

Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the PPL Center in Allentown, Pa., on Oct. 29, 2024. Arjun Singh/The Epoch Times

From Trump Tower to the White House

Now 78 years old and making his third presidential run, Trump started his rise to fame and fortune in his native New York. After leaving the White House in 2021, he now lives in Florida at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach.

Following in the footsteps of his father, Fred Trump, he built an international real estate empire. Donald Trump became a household name during the 2000s while starring in the reality TV series “The Apprentice.” During the show, he coined his famous phrase “You’re fired!” while axing a contestant at the end of each show. Trump also has authored several books, including 1987’s “The Art of the Deal.”

Before he became the standard-bearer for a revamped version of the Republican Party, Trump had changed his political affiliation several times.

In 2004, he told CNN, “In many cases, I probably identify more as Democrat.”

He said it seemed to him that the economy was healthier under Democrats. Trump switched to the Republican Party in 2011, records show.

In 2014, Trump took steps toward running as governor of New York but decided against it. The following year, he pursued politics in earnest, ending years of speculation about a Trump presidential run.

On June 16, 2015, he and his wife, Melania Trump, rode down an escalator at Trump Tower in Manhattan to announce his candidacy.

That day, he debuted his “Make America Great Again” slogan, echoing the “Let’s Make America Great Again” phrase that Republican Ronald Reagan used during his successful 1980 presidential campaign.

In 2016, Trump became the unlikely victor of the presidential election, making him the first U.S. president with no prior experience in public office or as a military commander.

Security in front of Trump Tower in New York City on Sept. 26, 2024. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Throughout the campaign season, polls showed Trump trailing Democrat Hillary Clinton, a longtime politician and wife of former President Bill Clinton. That pattern continued in 2020 and 2024, with Trump consistently outperforming polls.

During his presidency, Trump fought a barrage of political attacks that began immediately after he took the oath of office in 2017.

He became the third U.S. president to be impeached, and he stands alone as the sole president to be impeached twice. The Senate acquitted him both times.

During the first two years of his term, the president and dozens of people close to him were ensnared in the so-called Russian-collusion inquiry headed by special counsel Robert Mueller. The special counsel concluded the investigation with a report that did not document any evidence of collusion.

In the final year of his presidency, Trump grappled with the COVID-19 pandemic and a summer of race riots as he campaigned for reelection. His Democratic opponent was Joe Biden, a longtime senator who served as vice president under President Barack Obama.

A Trump White House statement said his presidential accomplishments included a strong economy with low interest rates, “massive deregulation” to spur business growth, and taking “historic action to promote peace in the Middle East.” He was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in the Middle East.

Trump was born in New York City on June 14, 1946; his parents, Fred Trump and Mary Trump, née MacLeod, had five children. Trump himself has five children through three marriages, and 10 grandchildren.

He received his education at the New York Military Academy, a private boarding school, followed by Fordham University and the Wharton School of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in economics.

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

A Texas federal judge on Thursday struck down a Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) rule that allows illegal immigrant spouses of U.S. citizens to apply for residency.

The ruling sets aside a “parole in place” process announced in August that would have meant the illegal immigrant spouses of U.S. citizens could apply for legal status and temporarily remain in the United States. If approved, they could then pursue a green card and, eventually, U.S. citizenship, if they met certain eligibility criteria.

The criteria included having lived in the United States continuously for at least 10 years, having no disqualifying criminal history, and being married to a U.S. citizen by June 17.

In August, the DHS said that the government was trying to keep families together by granting parole in place on a case-by-case basis to eligible illegal immigrants, which they said would be a public benefit of promoting unity and stability of families.

Shortly after the rule was announced, 16 states, led by Texas, filed a lawsuit arguing that the program would encourage illegal immigration and increase financial burdens on states through health care and law enforcement costs.

On Aug. 26, U.S. District Judge J. Campbell Barker, who was appointed by President-elect Donald Trump during his first presidential term, halted the rule pending the outcome of the case.

In his Thursday final decision, Barker wrote that the DHS lacks authority to grant parole in place to illegal immigrants or “to deem parole ‘in place’ as used there to be parole ‘into the United States.’”

His judgment invalidated the agency’s action, published on Aug. 20 in the Federal Register, opening applications for this pathway.

Barker’s final judgment effectively ends the parole program, stating that DHS’s authority does not extend to the interpretation of “parole” outlined by the policy.

Although the judgment denies other relief sought by the plaintiffs, it leaves the door open for further legal challenges on similar grounds. Additionally, the court ordered the federal government to bear court costs associated with the suit.

President Joe Biden announced the Keeping Families Together initiative in June, shortly after he took a different executive action to significantly restrict asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. This initiative uses a federal law known as the Immigration and Nationality Act, which allows federal officials to grant parole to illegal immigrants already in the United States.

DHS officials sought to use this authority to protect certain illegal immigrants who are married to U.S. citizens. The department also said that the policy would increase the economic prosperity of U.S. communities, strengthen diplomatic relationships with partner countries in the region, and reduce the strain on limited U.S. government resources.

It was estimated that about 500,000 of the 765,000 illegal immigrants who are in the United States and married to U.S. citizens were eligible for the extension of the parole authority.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has issued a formal congratulations to Donald Trump for his victory in the US presidential election, following some rare positive remarks also made by Russia’s Vladmir Putin.

Lukashenko signaled his support and openness to seeking the end of the Ukraine war by favorable negotiated settlement. “If he [ends the war], we’ll petition for the Nobel Prize. He’ll be rewarded for doing a good deed,” Lukashenko was quoted as saying in state-run Belta.

Among the more interesting statements was Lukashenko’s observation that “America was ready to elect a Black president, but America is not ready to elect a woman.”

But of Trump, the Belarusian strongman described, “They shot him, they pressured him, they wanted to put him in jail, but he bulldozed through.”

The backdrop to the remarks wherein Lukashenko hailed Trump was certainly interesting:

Speaking at a woodchopping event, Lukashenko called Trump a “powerhouse” who managed to return to the White House after what he described as a “kind of an unsuccessful” first term between 2017 and 2021.

This was very similar to Putin’s assessment the same day (Thursday), wherein the Russian President said that Trump acted “like a man” following the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania last summer.

“His behavior at the time of the attempt on his life made an impression on me,” Putin said at the Valdai Club in the Black Sea city of Sochi. “He turned out to be a courageous man. And it’s not just about the raised hand and the call to fight for his and their common ideals… He behaved, in my opinion, in a very correct way, courageously, like a man.”

So now it appears that Putin and Lukashenko agree that Trump represents the best hope that Washington could get more reasonable in its approach to the proxy war in Ukraine.

While Belarus has not directly entered the conflict, it has allowed Russian troops and assets to be stationed within its borders, and has facilitated the launch of drones against Ukraine from its territory. Russian tactical nukes are also widely reported to be stationed there.

The Belarusian leader still emphasized in the Thursday remarks that achieving peace “is not a unilateral process” and would likely require the cooperation of other international partners.

Meanwhile, Trump this week signaled there could be a potential phone call between and Putin soon. The Russian leader surprisingly said Thursday, “It wouldn’t be beneath me to call him myself.” And Trump in turn told NBC news, “I think we’ll speak.”

This type of positive dialogue while the Ukraine war rages was unthinkable under the Biden-Harris administration, and for that reason the Kremlin was very closely watching the US election.