Month: November 2024

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,

Reactions from world leaders have begun to pour in, congratulating Donald Trump on winning the presidency again.

Decision Desk HQ has projected that Trump will return to the White House, being the first president to win nonconsecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in 1892.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was the first world leader to congratulate him.

“Dear Donald and Melania Trump, Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!” Netanyahu posted on social media.

“Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

This comes as Israel has been fighting Hamas and Hezbollah since the former launched an attack on the Jewish state on Oct. 7, 2023 – the deadliest single-day anti-Semitic attack since the Holocaust.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also congratulated Trump, who has called for a resolution between Ukraine and Russia amid the latter’s invasion of the former.

“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together,” he posted on X.

He continued, “We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership. We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a social media post,

“I warmly congratulate Donald J. Trump. The EU and the US are more than just allies. We are bound by a true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens. So let’s work together on a strong transatlantic agenda that keeps delivering for them.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who belongs to the left-wing Labour Party, congratulated Trump on a “historic election victory.” He posted on X:

“As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defense of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise. From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte congratulated Trump.

“I just congratulated @realDonaldTrump on his election as President of the United States. His leadership will again be key to keeping our Alliance strong. I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through NATO,” he posted on X.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent his best wishes to Trump, saying,

“Heartiest congratulations my friend [Donald Trump] on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.”

His post was accompanied by four images of himself and Trump during the latter’s last stint in the White House.

President Emmanuel Macron of France also took to X with messages in French and English saying:

“Congratulations, [President Donald Trump]. Ready to work together as we did for four years. With your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.”

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a longtime ally of Trump, said on X that:

the election result was “the biggest comeback in US political history.” He congratulated Trump “on his enormous win,” and said it is a “much-needed victory for the World!”

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said:

“On behalf of myself and the Italian government, my most sincere congratulations to the President-elect of the United States, Donald Trump. Italy and the United States are ‘sister’ nations, linked by an unshakeable alliance, common values, and a historic friendship. It is a strategic bond, which I am sure we will now strengthen even further.”

Polish President Andrzej Duda also took to X to congratulate Trump.

“You made it happen!” he said.

His post was accompanied by a trio of clapping emojis, as well as the Polish and U.S. flags on either side of a handshake image.

Dutch politician Geert Wilders, leader of the largest party in the Netherlands but not the nation’s prime minister due to a coalition agreement among parties to form the government, posted an all-caps message on X:

“Congratulations President Trump! Congratulations America! Never stop, always keep fighting and win elections!”

His post also featured a flurry of emojis, including three star-spangled banners flanked on each side by a trio of flexed biceps.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs posted on X that

he “look[s] forward to working with you to strengthen bilateral relations and transatlantic partnership. Europe needs strong US and US needs strong Europe. Latvia is and will be a strong and reliable partner of the US.”

…and we’ll just memory-hole everything most of these people said about Trump in the lead up.

Trump won in 2016, he also won in 2020 (but it was stolen from him thanks to 20 million “vapor” votes which magically failed to make a re-appearance in 2024), and he just won again in a landslide, not just the electoral but the popular vote as well… and boy are markets rocking!

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has unleashed a shockwave in global markets as traders prepared for unprecedented policy and economic changes under the new administration. Trump’s political comeback sparked a surge in risk assets, sending 30-year Treasury yields and the dollar to their biggest gains since 2020…

… Dow futures soared more than 1,300 points…

…. S&P 500 futures climbed 2.3%…

… and Bitcoin spiked to a record.

Tesla co-founded by Trump’s biggest backer Elon Musk, surged 15% in premarket trading.

From London to Tokyo, investors around the globe grappled with the far-reaching effects of a Trump presidency, which according to Bloomberg “is expected to bring steep tariffs on imported products, worsen trade tensions with China and increase pressure on Europe to ramp up defense spending.” Apparently it is also sending risk assets soaring. The Mexican peso – viewed as the anti-Trump trade due to his threats to flood Mexico’s economy with tariffs – fell the most in three months and the euro led losses among Group-of-10 currencies.

“We’ve been talking about this Trump trade for a while. The fairly aggressive market reaction shows that investors didn’t know what to put on, and now they know,” Marvin Loh, senior macro strategist at State Street Global Markets, told Bloomberg TV. “A lot of us will be asking is which ones potentially have either a lot more to move or really does not yet reflect the type of administration.”

For those who missed it, here is a recap of what happened in the year’s biggest event:

• Presidency & Senate: Trump is projected to have secured the Presidency and the Senate. On the Presidency, the main updates came relatively early doors from the North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia swing states which all went in favor of Trump. As it stands, Trump has 277 electoral votes with Harris on 224 (270 required), with the count continuing. For the Senate, Rep. gained two seats pushing them to 51 (50 required) vs 42 for the Dems, as it stands.
• House: The House remains too close to call. Major updates which were expected from California in the last few hours haven’t been sufficient to skew the too-close-to-call races in the state. As it stands, Republicans are projected to have gained two seats taking their tally to 200 (218 required) while the Democrats are on 188, having lost two. While the race can’t yet be called, Decision Desk assigns a ~58% probability of a Rep. senate; note, this is down from a 65% peak just after Pennsylvania was called in the Presidential race. Given how close the race is, it could be days or possibly weeks until we have an answer on the House.

This is how all major asset classes reacted:

• US equity futures boosted by the Trump presidency; ES +1.8%, NQ +1.7%, DJIA +2.0%, RTY +4.3%. Additionally, Trump sensitive names (i.e. TSLA & DJT) are posting significant gains.
• European futures sent lower by almost 1% initially, given the potential trade/growth ramifications; however, this move tempered significantly into the European session with benchmarks now firmer by c. 1%. Action which is potentially driven by enthusiasm elsewhere and perhaps also influenced by a particularly busy morning of earnings.
• APAC trade saw the Hang Seng close lower by just over 2%, while the Nikkei 225 closed higher by 2.2% (benefitting from JPY action).
• For Fixed, USTs under marked pressure with the curve steepening though we await details on the House to see if this narrative flips into flattening; USTs at a contract low. Probability of a 25bps cut on Thursday’s FOMC remains essentially fully priced.
• EGBs diverge from this and are bid, with yields lower across the European curve as markets price increasing odds of frontloading action from monetary authorities; US-Ger. 10yr yield spread above 200bps (c. 195bps on Tue.). Focus also on the House, as that will influence the degree of widening.
• FX sees the DXY bid, largest jump since March 2020. EUR lags given the trade risk and potential for monetary frontloading, AUD & NZD hit on China-exposure. JPY pressured given the potential for tighter Fed policy.
• Commodities has Crude weighed on by the USD and also “drill baby, drill” language coming to mind in terms of potential Trump-driven supply increases from the US. Gold softer and base metals particularly dented, awaiting updates on China stimulus which could be much higher under a Trump US presidency.
• Crypto saw BTC hit a record high, though has faded from this slightly and seemingly tracking the House odds to a degree.

Equities also reflected expectations that Trump would loosen financial regulation, embrace crypto and support fossil fuel producers. JPMorgan and Bank of America shares advanced in early trading. Tilray, a cannabis company, sank 10% after Florida voters rejected a ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana. Elsewhere in the premarket:

• Prison operators rose, with Trump seen as having a harder stance on the immigration issue. GEO Group (GEO) +22%, CoreCivic (CXW) +18%
• Crypto related stocks gain with Bitcoin, which is viewed by many as a so-called Trump trade because Trump embraced digital assets during his campaign after a major push by the industry. Marathon Digital (MARA) +9%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +10%
• In the auto sector, Tesla (TSLA) soars 11% as investors wager the carmaker run by Elon Musk will be a major beneficiary of Trump’s return to the White House. Meanwhile, Ford (F) +2% and GM (GM) +2%. Other stocks in the electric vehicle sector were falling, given Trump’s pledge to entirely reverse Biden’s EV policy
• Rivian Automotive (RIVN) -3%
• US health insurers focused on the Medicare market jumped on expectation that the second Trump administration will pay higher rates to companies that provide private versions of the US health program for seniors. UnitedHealth (UNH) +7%, Humana (HUM) +9%

Some other notable premarket movers:

• Bigbear.ai (BBAI) slides 6% after the AI software company reported revenue for the 3Q that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Coupang (CPNG) drops 6% after the e-commerce company reported third-quarter net sales that fell short of estimates. Morgan Stanley noted a step-up in technology spending, which it said was not expected by the market.
• Exact Sciences (EXAS) tumbles 22% as the colon cancer test maker cut guidance.
• Qualys (QLYS) jumps 20% after the information-security company’s 3Qearnings beat estimates and it raised its outlook for the year.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunges 15% after the company’s 2Q sales forecast fell short of expectations. The troubled server maker it said it couldn’t predict when it would file official financial statements for the previous fiscal year.

Goldman’s trading desk said a Republican sweep may push the S&P 500 up by 3%, while moves would be half as much in the event of a divided government. A Morgan Stanley note said risk-taking appetite may dip in the event of a Republican sweep as fiscal concerns fuel yields, but if bond markets take it in their stride the likes of growth-sensitive cyclical stocks would rise.

We will have much more to say on the kneejerk reactions, but here are some more hot takes from Wall Street:

• Anastasia Amoroso at iCapital: We have a new investment regime most likely for the next four years or at least the next two years until the next midterm election. This means you can commit to some of those trades. The reason why small caps are rallying is because they are more sensitive to the republican majority and that is helping sentiment, domestic orientation and potential for lower tax.
• Justin Onuekwusi at St. James’s Place: There is potential for higher short-term volatility in bond markets in the aftermath of the election. We think this is particularly likely around US Treasuries as sentiment adjusts to the result. Possible higher inflation may also cause yields for long-term bonds to rise higher than short-term bonds. This is sometimes seen as a signal for the start of a strong economic period but can also indicate a time of higher interest rates.
• Charlotte Daughtrey at Federated Hermes: Trump’s “proposed tariffs may be reflationary. This may impact the pace of rate cuts or perhaps push them back into a rate hiking cycle, something they are keen to avoid.”
• Mohit Kumar at Jefferies: We see a continuation of the US equities rally. Our view has been that a number of investors are sitting on the sidelines and waiting for election uncertainty to be out of the way. Assuming a clean election result, with Trump policies largely considered positive for the market, a growth picture that is doing fine and a Fed that is ready to cut rates, we see further upside in US equities. We also expect US equities to continue to outperform Europe and global indexes.
• Samy Chaar at Lombard Odier: The race for the House of Representatives will determine whether campaign pledges can be fully implemented. The question of tariffs is key for global trade and the Fed’s easing prospects.
• James Demmert at Main Street Research: Investors should look past the election and focus on the fundamentals of what drives markets. The economy and earnings continue to be better than expected, most stocks are reasonably priced and the Fed is in an accommodative mode and is expected to cut interest rates again this week. There is an excellent backdrop for stocks right now.

In Europe, stock gains have faded slightly as investors contemplate the risk of increased potential trade protectionism by a Trump administration. The Stoxx 600 is up 1.2% with health care and travel shares leading gains, while utilities and automobile sectors were the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Securitas gains as much as 11%, to highest since May 2019, after the Stockholm-listed security services firm delivered results ahead of expectations in the third quarter
• Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 8.9%, the most in roughly 8 months, after the Danish drugmaker reported Wegovy sales for the third quarter that beat estimates
• Zealand Pharma shares gain as much as 7.6%, after the Danish biotech company said moderate doses of its experimental weight-loss drug helped patients pare pounds with less nausea than some other next-generation contenders
• Wise shares jump as much as 8.2%, after the money transfer platform operator reported underlying profit for the first half that was well ahead of expectations thanks to a better gross margin and lower operating costs
• Credit Agricole falls as much as 5.7%, the most since August, with analysts describing the French lender’s 3Q print as “slightly underwhelming,” with a miss on revenues, weighed down by lagging momentum in the insurance arm
• EDP Renovaveis shares fall as much as 8.4% to €11.58 and trade 7.6% lower as of 8:14 a.m. in Lisbon after the renewable energy co. reported a 53% drop in nine-month net income
• Siemens Healthineers shares jump as much as 8.9%, the most since February 2023, after the German medical technology company reported fourth-quarter results that Stifel said were “much better than feared”
• BBVA shares dropped 5.6% in Madrid trading as Donald Trump closed in on a US election victory, with Barclays analysts earlier flagging that such an outcome would impact the bank’s Mexican business
• BMW shares fall as much as 7% after the German carmaker’s profit margin dropped to a four-year low due to a costly recall and weak China demand. Analysts highlight an “un-BMW” miss on free cash flow
• Commerzbank AG shares declined as much as 2.6% as higher-than-expected provisions and what analysts see as downside risk to 2025 net interest income overshadowed better-than-expected profit in the third quarter

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 1.4%, with the greenback logging its largest gain against the euro in G-10 space. The Mexican peso is one of the biggest losers overall with a 2.6% drop.

In rates, treasuries lost out, with US 10-year yields jumping 17 bps to 4.44% and the 2s10s curve steepening. Traders also pared Fed interest-rate cut bets while amping up their bets of European rate reductions, pricing in a faster pace of easing by the ECB and BOE to the benefit of bunds and gilts.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1.3% to $71 a barrel. Spot gold drops $24 to around $2,720/oz. Bitcoin soared 7% to a record high.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include German factory orders for September, and the final services and composite PMIs for October in the Euro Area. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Escriva, Vujcic and Villeroy.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 2.2% to 5,940.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 1.5% to 517.16
• MXAP down 0.2% to 187.54
• MXAPJ down 0.7% to 597.31
• Nikkei up 2.6% to 39,480.67
• Topix up 1.9% to 2,715.92
• Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 20,538.38
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,383.81
• Sensex up 1.1% to 80,384.52
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 8,199.55
• Kospi down 0.5% to 2,563.51
• German 10Y yield down 4.6 bps at 2.38%
• Euro down 1.5% to $1.0761
• Brent Futures down 1.9% to $74.06/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.8% to $2,721.04
• US Dollar Index up 1.37% to 104.84

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump won the presidential election after securing key swing states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The GOP flipped Senate seats in Ohio and West Virginia to take control of the chamber. Trump said America has given him an “unprecedented” mandate. BBG
• BOJ minutes suggest central bank officials saw the economy making further progress, laying the groundwork for additional policy tightening. Reuters
• Some Asian monetary authorities are already moving to guard their currencies as US election-related volatility fuels a surge in the dollar. So far, there have been signals from China, India and Indonesia. BBG
• China’s central bank chief pledged to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance and to double down on countercyclical adjustments to support the country’s economic growth. BBG
• Germany’s factory orders for Sept came in ahead of expectations at +4.2% M/M (vs. the Street +1.5%). WSJ
• US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would take total holdings to the highest in almost three months if confirmed by the EIA today. Fuel supplies declined. BBG
• Novo Nordisk stock rose after Wegovy sales beat expectations last quarter, a potential relief for investors after Lilly’s disappointing obesity drug sales last week. BBG
• The Mexican peso led a slide in emerging market currencies. Ukraine’s dollar-denominated sovereign bonds jumped on expectations that the war with Russia will end quickly, as Trump has previously vowed. BBG
• Tesla soared premarket as investors wagered it’ll benefit from Elon Musk’s all-in bet on Trump. JPMorgan, BofA, Wells Fargo and Citi shares all gained more than 6%. Trump Media leapt. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the risk on performance on Wall St as participants digested the US Presidential Election results where Trump is leading so far, and betting markets boosted their pricing of the former President returning to the White House. ASX 200 was lifted with outperformance in tech, consumer discretionary and financials leading the gains seen in all sectors. Nikkei 225 surged above the 39,000 level with the momentum propelled by a weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged with the Hong Kong benchmark the worst hit as tech was pressured amid the increased tariff threat for Chinese companies, while the mainland traded indecisively as prospects of looming fiscal stimulus offset the tariff threat.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Premier Li said in a meeting with Malaysia’s PM that the sides should push forward flagship railway and industrial development projects, while he added that both should look into emerging areas and new areas for potential cooperation, according to Xinhua.
• BoJ September meeting minutes stated that members shared the view BoJ will continue to raise interest rates if its economic and price forecasts are met, while members agreed that the BoJ must scrutinize market developments and the overseas economic outlook for the time being as markets remain unstable and many members said BoJ must scrutinise not just market moves but the factors behind their volatility such as US and overseas economic developments. Furthermore, a few members said the BoJ can afford to spend time scrutinising the impact of overseas and market developments on Japan’s economy and prices, while one member said the BoJ should hold off on raising rates until global and market uncertainties diminish and a member also said it is undesirable to change the policy rate level now as financial and economic uncertainties are high, although one member said there could be times when raising rates would be appropriate even when markets are unstable.
• Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said it’s important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Intend to watch closely on FX moves, including speculative moves, with a higher sense of urgency. Will do utmost in managing economic and fiscal policy while working closely with the BoJ.
• UMC (UMC, 2303 TW) October (TWD): Net Sales 21.3bln (prev. 19.19bln), +11.36% Y/Y.
• China’s Foreign Ministry say China will continue to work with the US on the basis of ‘mutual respect’. China’s policy towards the US is consistent.
• Chinese President Xi has urged Chinese officials again to meet annual economic target, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+1.7%) opened on a strong footing and continue to edge higher, with Presidential Candidate Trump poised to win the election. Indices have dipped off best levels in recent trade. Note, European futures were lower by as much as 1% pre-open, before picking up given the US enthusiasm. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only Utilities and Autos trading in the red; latter sensitive to potential tarriff updates. Healthcare tops the pack, buoyed by gains in Novo Nordisk, post-earnings. US Equity Futures (ES 2.1%, NQ +1.7%, RTY +5.5%) are entirely in the green, with the “Trump Trade” very much in full swing, with the Republican nominee on the cusp of a historic victory. As a result, the economy-linked RTY is the clear outperformer today. US pre-market movers include; Tesla (+12.9%), Trump Media (+38.5%), Exxon (+2.9%), Morgan Stanley (+5.9%), JD.Com (-4.1%)

Top European News

• UK think tank NIESR forecasts the BoE cutting rates this week and to deliver three more cuts in 2025, while it sees the Bank Rate at 3.25% in 2026.

FX

• Hefty gains for the Dollar index which has seen its largest jump since March 2020 on the Trump trade as the former president is set for another four years in office. Eyes remain on the Congress configuration as the Senate has been called for Republicans whilst the House remains closed and could take days to be called. DXY surged from a 103.35 intraday low to a 105.31 peak this morning; the index has pulled back to current levels of 104.90.
• Sizeable downside for EUR as a function of broader USD strength coupled with the potential ramifications of Trump’s trade agenda on EZ growth. Elsewhere, revisions higher to Final EZ PMI Services and Composite metrics were unsurprisingly overshadowed by the US election. EUR/USD slipped from a 1.0937 intraday high to a low of 1.0704 before coming off worst levels.
• GBP is softer but among the mid-table G10 performers with price action solely driven by the USD strength, with traders now looking ahead to tomorrow’s BoE whereby a 25bps to the Bank Rate is widely expected; attention for that remains on forward guidance, given the net-hawkish budget implications.
• JPY is among the G10 underperformers as the Japanese currency is hit by a surge in US yields, whilst desks also argue the JPY could act as a proxy to Asian FX about to be hit by another trade war. USD/JPY surged from a 151.31 low to a 154.38 intraday peak before stabilising around 154.00.
• Antipodeans are lower intraday but among the “better” G10 performers after suffering during APAC hours. The high-beta statuses cushion losses against the backdrop of a solid “risk-on” session thus far, with surges seen across equities. Antipodeans also look ahead to the Chinese fiscal announcement which was expected to be contingent on the next US President.
• CNH is among the EM FX losers as Trump 2.0 is almost certainly likely to spark trade frictions with China. That being said, Chinese markets eagerly await the touted fiscal stimulus package from the NPC Standing Committee.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0993 vs exp. 7.1011 (prev. 7.1016).
• China’s major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars in the offshore FX market to prevent rapid yuan depreciation, according to Reuters sources.
• Citi has added a short-position on the MXN vs the ZAR, following the US election result.

Fixed Income

• USTs are pressured, with Trump set to return as President with control of the Senate and a projected ~60% chance of having House control as well; though, the House remains far too close to call and as it stands, we may not have an answer for several days or even weeks. The Trump Trade is in full swing for bonds with USTs at a contract low of 109-07, vs a 110-21+ initial high print for the session. However, if this narrative moves to a Trump ex-Congress (i.e. Rep. Senate but a Dem. House) government, then we may see a fading of the steepening in favour of flattening.
• Bunds are bolstered by the Trump victory. The narrative for EGBs is one of a lower yield environment given the potential headwind to Europe from an America-first and tariff-heavy US administration and expected frontloading of monetary stimulus to offset growth headwinds. Bunds off a 132.22 peak to a current 131.82, with the UST-Bund 10yr yield spread having widened to in excess of 200bps vs the 194bps peak on Tuesday. There was little impact following today’s 15- and 30-yr auctions.
• Gilts were initially somewhat unreactive to the election, seemingly caught between the bullish lead from EGBs and bearish one from USTs as the arguments for those moves don’t neatly apply to the UK, which remains focused on its own fiscal issues/implications ahead of Thursday’s BoE.
• Germany sells EUR 0.409bln vs exp. 0.5bln 2.50% 2046 Bund & EUR 0.805bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.60% 2041 Bund Auction

Commodities

• A soft session for the crude complex thus far as Trump looks set to win the US presidential race, with a stronger Dollar pressuring the complex alongside Trump’s drilling policies raising the prospect of higher US supply. Brent’Jan currently holds around USD 74.40/bbl.
• Precious metals trade lower across the board with the complex hit by the broader Dollar strength on the Trump trade. XAU/USD fell from USD 2,749.78/oz to a current low of USD 2,701.42/oz.
• Hefty losses across most industrial metals given the prospects of trade wars under Trump 2.0. That being said, the sectors will still be eyeing the NPC Standing Committee’s announcement for fiscal stimulus. 3M LME copper trades towards the bottom of a USD 9,513.00-9,708.00/oz.
• NHC shows that Rafael is now a Hurricane; earlier guidance was for it to intensify into one shortly.
• China will step up efforts to support domestic exploration of Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel resources and bolster national resource security under the plan.

Geopolitics

• “IDF Spokesperson: Warnings were activated in a number of areas in northern and central Israel following launches crossing from Lebanon”, according to N12.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deputy commander said Tehran does not rule out a US-Israel pre-emptive strike to prevent Iranian retaliation against Israel, via ISNA; said Iran and “resistance front are ready for confrontation”.
• US official said the surprising decision by Israeli PM Netanyahu to fire Defense Minister Gallant is concerning, especially in the middle of two wars and as Israel prepares to defend against a potential attack from Iran, while the official said they have real questions about the reasons for Gallant’s firing and about what is driving the decision, according to Kann’s Stein.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.1%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s been a big night with Mr Trump looking set to become just the second President to serve non-consecutive terms in history, and the first for well over a hundred years, after Grover Cleveland in the late-19th century. So a likely remarkable political comeback after an approval rating in the low 30 percent range when he left office in January 2021.

As we type, the New York Times needle, which is a well respected forecasting gauge has Trump with a 92% chance of victory. Polymarket.com is pricing it at 97%. Of the battleground states, only North Carolina and Georgia have so far been called by the media in favour of Trump with the other 5 with a probability of 64-80% going to Trump. The potential tipping point state of Pennsylvania has a 79% probability.

In terms of Congress, the House will be the key to whether there is a “red sweep”. Here we may not have more clarity until later in the day or even later in the week. The seats have all gone as expected so far which suggests it could be very close. The perception is that the popular vote may be the best proxy for this and here the NYT needle’s estimate suggests Trump is likely to win by 1pp, albeit with a 3pp margin for error on either side. If Trump does win the popular vote it will be the first time in his three election runs. Polymarket has swung a lot in the last hour but the House going Republican is at 64% as I finish typing at 5:45 am.
So it seems the biggest market debate will now be between a Trump red sweep and a Trump divided government where the House stays with the Democrats.

As a reminder, control of the House will be important for policy expectations and markets. While our strategists have seen a Trump victory as positive for the dollar (see here), not least given significant presidential authority on trade policy, congressional control will be important in many areas, especially fiscal policy. Our economists have previously viewed a Republican sweep as having the most upside in terms of fiscal easing (see here), with potential corresponding upside for the Fed terminal rate. Our strategists also saw a red sweep scenario as having the clearest upside for Treasury yields.

The market reaction so far is probably going as you would expect given the results. The 10yr Treasury yield is up +12bps to 4.39%, the dollar index is +1.26% higher, with the euro falling -1.27% against the greenback. That comes after the dollar index fell -0.45% yesterday, starting the week with its worst two-day run (-0.82%) since August. Other Trump trades benefiting include Bitcoin rising +7.26%. S&P (+1.02%) and Nasdaq +(0.84%) futures are both up as I type. Red sweep trades are off their highs with the direction of the House being in a little doubt. One thing to consider is that if there is a split Congress, you could argue that tariff policy becomes the priority assuming Trump wins, as he won’t be able to get his tax policy through without negotiations.

European equity futures are -0.59% lower and European bond futures are a lot flatter than US bonds as markets wake up to the implications of Trump’s likely tariff policies. If the results continue to move in this direction, then the prospects of the ECB being forced to move faster will increase. Nothing happens in isolation though, and there is risk of an early German election given events over the last few days which our economists have discussed here. This could have some implications for fiscal policy. Elsewhere China’s NPC standing committee may announce more clarity on fiscal policy when the meeting ends on Friday. It’s possible they have been waiting for the results of the US election to calibrate things. So lots of moving parts.

In Asia, the Nikkei is outperforming with a gain of +1.87%, and the S&P/ASX 200 is also up by +0.85%. Conversely, the Hang Seng Tech Index is down by -3.03%, followed by the Hang Seng, which has dropped -2.61% and the KOSPI (-0.93%). Mainland Chinese stocks are fairly flat.

Yesterday might feel like ancient history now, but before we knew the direction of likely election result, markets saw a strong risk-on move thanks to an upside surprise in the ISM services index for October. It rose to its highest level since July 2022, coming in at 56.0 (vs. 53.8 expected), and the details were also very positive. For instance, the employment component was back at an expansionary 53.0, marking its highest level since August 2023. And even though there was a modest downtick in new orders to 57.4, it was still the second-strongest print since February 2023.

That release continued the run of positive data surprises from the US recently, and it led investors to pare back their expectations for rate cuts over the months ahead. The rate priced in for the Fed’s December 2025 meeting was up +3.7bps yesterday to 3.66%, taking pricing back to roughly where it was before the summer market turmoil. However, the rise in rates proved fleeting on the long-end of the curve. 10yr Treasury yields ended the day -1.3bps lower at 4.27%, despite trading +8bps intra-day early on, with the reversal helped by a decent 10yr auction. Obviously all this has changed this morning.

Speaking of bonds selling off, yesterday saw UK gilts continue to underperform amidst weak demand at a 10yr auction. That follows last week’s announcement of noticeably higher borrowing in the budget, and it meant the spread of 10yr gilt yields over bunds widened by another +4.0bps to 211bps. That’s the biggest gap since Liz Truss was still PM back in October 2022, having risen by nearly 50bps since mid-September. In absolute terms, the 10yr gilt yield was up +7.2bps to a one-year high of 4.53%. Elsewhere in Europe, the selloff also saw yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps) hit a three-month high of 2.42%.

US equities showed no signs of pre-election jitters, as the S&P 500 (+1.23%) posted its strongest gain since September to close less than 1.5pp from its record high. That was supported by the upbeat data, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 stood at 2.38% after yesterday’s releases. So there’s little sign that the strong growth of late is easing, which has continued to boost risk assets. The megacap tech stocks led the way, with the Magnificent 7 up +1.76%, with Nvidia (+2.84%) overtaking Apple (+0.64%) as the world’s most valuable company. The tech advance was supported by software platform provider Palantir Technologies (+23.47%) after it reported strong AI-related demand. But the gains were broad-based with all 24 industry groups within the S&P 500 higher on the day and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.88%) outperforming. European markets were fairly subdued, and the STOXX 600 was only up +0.06%.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include German factory orders for September, and the final services and composite PMIs for October in the Euro Area. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Escriva, Vujcic and Villeroy.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, lists some of the American population’s most common nutrient deficiencies along with the symptoms to spot them, and the sources of food they can be found in.

Data is sourced from the Micronutrient Information Center at Oregon State University, accessed October, 2024. They studied how much of the population falls below the estimated average requirement (EAR) for each nutrient.

The EAR is a threshold of dietary intake that meets the needs of half the healthy people in a specific age and gender group. The data in this chart is for adults aged 18 and older.

Symptoms of Common Vitamin Deficiencies

Per the data, most Americans do not get enough calcium or Vitamin D from their diet. However, Vitamin D is particularly difficult to meet through diet alone, as the primary source is sunlight.

Experts recommend at least 15 minutes in the sun per day, though people with darker skin tones may need more.

Deficiency results in aches and pains in the muscles and bones, fatigue, and even depression. Prolonged low levels can lead to osteoporosis—where bones become brittle and fragile, and break easily, also a symptom of low calcium levels.

While Vitamin D occurs naturally in mushrooms, beef, fish, and egg yolks, it’s also added to milk, cereals, and certain foods like breakfast bars to help boost levels.

Meanwhile, it’s estimated that around 50% of the population doesn’t meet their Vitamin A dietary requirement. A lack of it lead to vision loss, skin issues, delayed wound healing, and infertility.

In general, American diets are energy-rich and nutrient-poor, because of a heavy reliance on processed foods and carbohydrates. Dieticians recommend more nutrient-dense foods (fruits, vegetables, certain meats, eggs, dairy, and whole grains) to meet all requirements.

How else are these diets impacting the population? Check out The Countries with the Highest Obesity Rates, where America ranks 15th on the list.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

This is easy to explain with charts and ideas…

An Imagined Paradox

The Brookings Institute measured the macro conditions and wonders why sentiment is so poor.

Please consider The Paradox Between the Macroeconomy and Household Sentiment

Despite recent concerns over a slowdown, the U.S. economy is performing well according to most objective metrics. The top-line unemployment rate was 4.1% as of September 2024, well below its 21st-century average of 5.7%. GDP growth has been substantial, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth of 3.0% over the past four quarters. Wages have outpaced inflation by 0.9% and the stock market has risen by 23% over a similar period. Investment, a key driver of the business cycle, fell very little as a share of GDP following the pandemic, outperforming the recoveries from every recession since 1980.

Judged over a longer time horizon, U.S. economic performance is similarly impressive, especially given the wrenching shock from the COVID-19 shutdowns of 2020 and 2021. Between Q1 2020 and Q2 2024, gains in housing equity and the stock market led to a remarkable $50 trillion expansion in household wealth—$28 trillion in inflation-adjusted terms. Despite the 2021–2023 inflation surge, wages have outpaced price increases since Q4 2019, with real median weekly earnings up 0.3%—with the highest gains for lower-wage workers. Indeed, despite COVID-19, real U.S. GDP is now $130 billion higher than the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected it would be in its pre-COVID-19 forecast.

Actual sentiment versus predicted sentiment

Before the pandemic, variation in sentiment could be largely explained using standard macroeconomic variables. In particular, a model that predicted sentiment using the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, aggregate consumption, and the performance of the stock market can explain 77.4% of the variation in sentiment over 2005–2019 (see Figure 2). However, over the last few years, this relationship has broken down, with a wide gap emerging between observed sentiment and predicted sentiment based on the state of the economy.

In simple terms, the puzzle we are examining is as follows: At most points in time over the past four decades, if consumers lived under an identical macroeconomy as they have now, their feelings about the economy would have been largely positive. But now this is no longer true; consumer attitudes about the economy are instead near all-time lows.

In sum, several trends suggest that consumer sentiment is not wholly driven by rational and accurate perceptions.

Real spending on international travel and the volume of travelers going through Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints have rebounded back to their pre-pandemic levels. Real spending on air transportation has skyrocketed more than 40% above its pre-pandemic level.

CEO confidence itself remains above its pre-pandemic level. By this metric, businesses have been optimistic about the growth of the U.S. economy.

Possible explanations

If economic conditions are strong, and people are behaving in a way that reveals some optimism about the economic environment, why is sentiment so weak? Analysts have advanced an array of possible explanations. One possible explanation, offered by Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, is that peoples’ views about the general state of the world and country spill over into their views about the economy. Ip refers to this as “referred pain,” and notes that events like “intensifying political and cultural conflict and intolerance, the pandemic, the border, mass shootings, crime, war in Ukraine, and now the war in the Middle East” may be negatively affecting views of the economy, even if national aggregates tell a brighter story.

Such an explanation is certainly possible, although difficult to test since the non-economic factors that may be causing referred pain are difficult to identify. Moreover, several of the factors identified by Ip are actually improving over the period of interest. For example, in the first half of 2024 most violent crimes occurred at or below pre-pandemic levels, with less frequency than in the preceding 4 years, and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 means our nation is not at war for the first time in two decades.

Another plausible explanation, advanced by economist Jason Furman at a Brookings Institution event in January 2024, is that the pace of cumulative wage gains in the post-pandemic era is markedly slower than the years immediately preceding the pandemic (i.e., 2014–2019). Indeed, relatively slower real wage gains could plausibly be a factor behind the sentiment puzzle. However, several caveats are warranted. One, discrepancies in cumulative real wage gains are highly sensitive to the measure of wages, the inflation deflator, and the periods of comparisons. Three, if cumulative real wages drove sentiment, it is not clear why older households—with sharply lower rates of employment—would have reported a concomitant drop in sentiment.

Another proposed explanation for the disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals is that people are receiving more negative news about the economy despite the underlying fundamentals.

Ivory Tower Thinking

Wow what an amazing consortium of ivory tower thinking.

For starters, crime is high. Please note The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s failure to compile and report accurate, complete national crime data.

In 2023, the FBI initially reported an estimated 1.7 percent decrease in violent crime in 2022 but later quietly revised the report to show a 4.5 percent increase––a staggering 6.2 percent change.

The Biden-Harris Administration championed the purported decrease, but there was no decrease. The FBI failed to include in its initial count “an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults,” resulting in not a decrease but an increase in violent crime of 4.5 percent in 2022. The FBI quietly revised the report to reflect this increase in violent crime but did not publicize it.

And CEO confidence is up. What a hoot. It’s shocking, shocking I say, that people are not thrilled about the number of billionaires the US has created to balance out those worried about being evicted.

Brookings also blamed politics. On this theory, Republicans are upset at Biden more than they should be, despite the fact that Biden is heavily despised by those not living in an ivory tower.

Let’s leave the ivory tower for a moment and live in the real world.

A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions

On August 22, 2024 I gave A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions

Those negative revisions are a direct result of the BLS Birth-Death model gone haywire.

Job Openings Drying Up

Job openings and quits are for September and not impacted by Hurricanes

November 1, 2024: Nonfarm Payrolls Rise a Mere 12,000 with Government Jobs Up 40,000

Job openings and quits, not impacted by hurricanes, put an additional spotlight on the poor October jobs report.

Nonfarm Payrolls Rise a Mere 12,000

Blame hurricanes if you like, but the impact is debatable. Only Hurricane Milton was in the reference period.

Data from the BLS, chart by Mish

November 1, 2024: Nonfarm Payrolls Rise a Mere 12,000 with Government Jobs Up 40,000

Job Stats vs One Year Ago

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,173,000

• Employment: +216,000

• Full Time Employment: -1,000,600

Employment is up 216,000 in the past year? But how?

Change in Employment Excluding Government

Please consider Excluding Government, Year-Over-Year Employment Is Negative 9 Straight Months

I created the above chart by subtracting the year-over-year change in government employment from the year-over-year change in employment.

Non-Ag Employment Excluding Government

Non-agricultural employment excluding government peaked in August of 2023 at 138.026 million and is now 137.240 million, down 786,000 since the peak.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate hit a 50-year low in January and April of 2023 at 3.4 percent. It’s now 4.1 percent.

“The unemployment rate has bottomed this cycle and will generally head higher.”

I first made that comment many months ago. If there was any doubt, it’s now erased.

The Housing Boom Economists Expected in 2024, Was a Bust

On October 26, I commented The Housing Boom Economists Expected in 2024, Was a Bust

The widespread theory (not in this corner) was the Fed would cut rates, mortgage rates would tumble, and that would stimulate existing home sales. What Happened?

Record High Home Prices

On September 28, I reported Yet Another Record High for Case-Shiller Home Prices

The pre-pandemic Case-Shiller national index was 370.9. Now it’s 553.1.

Home prices are up 49 percent in less than five years. And thanks to Fed QE wizardry, people could have and did refinance their mortgage at 3.0 percent or even less.

Phoenix Leads the Nation in Evictions

It’s not just Phoenix, or Arizona. Evictions are soaring in Texas and Nevada as well.

On October 30, I noted Phoenix Leads the Nation in Evictions, It’s a Yes-No Question

The question is: Did you pay the rent? It doesn’t matter why.

The Fed has destroyed housing with its boom-bust interest rate and QE manipulations.

A $150,000 House in 1988 Now Costs $707,500

August 10, 2024: A $150,000 House in 1988 Now Costs $707,500 Thank You Fed

The above chart represents the mortgage payment of the same $150,000 house reflecting the changing price and interest rate over time.

Case-Shiller Home Prices

September 28, 2024: Yet Another Record High for Case-Shiller Home Prices

Mortgage Rates Hit 7.0 Percent Again

October 28, 2024: Mortgage Rates Hit 7.0 Percent Again, Where to from Here?

With record home prices and mortgage rates back above seven percent, who can afford to buy a home?

Fed Beige Book Shows Only 3 of 12 Regions Growing, 3 Declining

October 23, 2024: Fed Beige Book Shows Only 3 of 12 Regions Growing, 3 Declining

The Fed Beige book shows a mostly steady economy in 6 of 12 regional reports. “Steady” is in context of the the worst Beige Book in years.

The Immigrant Crime Spree is Real

October 21, 2024: The Immigrant Crime Spree is Real, Not Imaginary, Thank Harris and Biden

Four years of open borders and sanctuary policies have brought criminal drug networks, human trafficking, and an epidemic of sexual assault.

Living Paycheck to Paycheck

Bank of America has an interesting report on who’s living paycheck to paycheck (PTP). It’s not just the poor. Blame the Fed.

Please note 20 Percent of Households Making Over $150,000 Live Paycheck to Paycheck

And that’s by a strict definition that only includes rent, food, insurance and other necessities. Over 40 percent live paycheck to paycheck.

Dear Brookings, Here’s Your Paradox

• Negative 818,000 job revisions

• Job openings crash

• Full Time Employment: -1,000,600 from a year ago

• Total employment: only +216,000 from a year ago

• Excluding government, year-over-year employment is negative for the last 9 consecutive months

• Non-agricultural employment excluding government peaked in August of 2023 at 138.026 million and is now 137.240 million, down 786,000 since the peak.

• The unemployment rate is up 0.7 percent from the low at a pace that strongly suggests recession.

• Home prices are up 49 percent in less than five years to new record highs.

• A $150,000 house in 1988 now costs $707,500.

• The mortgage rate is back above 7 percent.

• The share of first-time buyers of existing homes is at a record low.

• The Fed’s Beige Book looks very recessionary

• The immigrant crime spree is real. The FBI lied about the crime rate dropping.

• Evictions are at record highs in many states and might be everywhere were it not for eviction moratoriums.

And the Brookings Institute cannot figure out why sentiment is in the gutter.

Then again, the stock market is at an all time high. And CEOs are traveling more. That’s quite the paradox.

It must be Trump.

A high-pressure system over North America has caused widespread dryness across the Lower 48, pushing a record percentage of the US population into drought conditions, damaging crop harvests and cattle pastures.

The latest data from the US Drought Monitor shows that 78% of the US population resides in areas plagued by “abnormal dryness and drought,” according to NASA Earth Observatory. 

Here’s more from the report: 

Drier- and warmer-than-normal weather dominated the country during much of October, caused by a strong ridge of high pressure that lingered high in the atmosphere for weeks. According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, 100 weather stations across the US recorded no rain in October, including the cities of Philadelphia, Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas, Las Vegas, and Sacramento. Over 70 weather stations recorded the driest October on record.

The map above shows conditions in the contiguous US on October 29, 2024, as reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor, a partnership of the US Department of Agriculture, NOAA, and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The map depicts drought intensity in progressive shades of yellow to red. It is based on an analysis of climate, soil, crop, and water condition measurements from more than 350 federal, state, and local observers around the country. NASA contributes several measurements and models that aid the drought monitoring effort.

Drought had expanded from covering just 12 percent of the country in June to 54 percent as of October 29. The rapid development created what NOAA describes as a “flash drought” in many parts of the country. Flash droughts are typically brought on by lower-than-normal rates of precipitation, accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, wind, or radiation.

In terms of agricultural markets, Bloomberg published a new note outlining how droughts in top farming belts in the US could impact winter wheat production… 

Wheat will be in the spotlight this week, with two key reports shedding light on the world’s supply of the key cereal crop. The US Department of Agriculture’s Monday crop progress report includes an update on conditions of US wheat, which is off to an historically bad start due to drought. Then on Friday, the agency will estimate global grain supply and demand amid concerns that top exporter Russia will ship less wheat. Wheat futures fell in Chicago on Monday.

While NASA conveniently blames adverse weather conditions on “human-caused climate change,” why has the corporate media remained silent on the impact of the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption on disrupting global weather patterns? 

Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

A series of new state regulations are set to make gas prices in California rise even higher in 2025, despite the state already having the highest gas prices in the nation.

As the Washington Examiner reports, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is set to vote on a series of new fuel standards regulations on November 8th.

These regulations, which will go into effect immediately if approved, will increase the average price of gas in the state by 47 cents, according to CARB’s own estimates.

However, a study from the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy released its own study suggesting that prices are more likely to increase by at least 65 cents.

Following backlash after the initial announcement of the new regulation, CARB appeared to backtrack and suggested it would revamp the new rules to minimize the price increase.

But instead, they simply re-announced the same regulations with the added caveat that, instead of being able to calculate the price increase for Californians, their study simply could not determine what the price increase would be.

“I don’t expect them to,” said CARB Executive Officer Steven Cliff.

He added that although “there will be additional impacts to costs to refiners,” he did not “think” that those costs would impact consumers as well.

The coming price increase is in addition to other regulations approved by Governor Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) as part of an anti-price gouging bill, which mandates all oil refineries in the state to build new storage facilities for reserve gasoline.

As a result of the higher costs of building new refineries, many companies have been forced to simply shut down various facilities. The net decline in oil refineries means that the state may have to turn to importing foreign oil instead.

In 2019, California had 11 gas refineries. Currently, it is down to just 8. As a result, imports of oil from overseas are expected to more than double, from 8% five years ago up to 17% in 2025.

Yesterday, the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) released a 53-page report on the pros of the United States establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve (SBR).

As Bitcoin Magazine’s Frank Corva details below, the authors of the report touched on four key benefits of holding bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset:

• Economic and monetary stability – bitcoin is a hedge against currency debasement and debt instability

• Geopolitical competition – the US could gain a strategic advantage over other countries that are contemplating starting a bitcoin reserve and can reinforce the US’ influence over global financial standards

• Energy and climate – Bitcoin mining can be leveraged to accelerate the movement toward renewable energy

• Financial inclusion and human rights – the US can promote both the concepts of individual freedom and financial inclusion for both US citizens and those abroad

While I agree that the US’ establishing an SBR would have these benefits, I also think it would send a certain message loud and clear: We embrace change in the United States.

We can tell the world that we’re aware of Bitcoin’s numerous positive attributes and that we want to use them to our advantage.

In doing so, we can shift the narrative around Bitcoin from something to be feared and controlled to something that should be embraced and utilized, and we can stand behind a tool that can be used to increase the financial buoyancy of both people and institutions around the globe instead of standing in its way.

Read the full report below:

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A left-wing advocacy group in Hamburg is openly teaching asylum seekers how to bypass the recently introduced payment card system, sparking political controversy and exposing a loophole in the system meant to control benefits distribution.

The Hamburg Refugee Council, which opposes the card, has launched a website explaining how asylum seekers can convert their card credit into cash through a voucher exchange system.

The payment card, introduced in November 2023 after an agreement between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the state prime ministers, was designed to reduce the administrative burden of handling cash benefits for asylum seekers and prevent misuse. The goal was to ensure that aid would be used for essential needs, such as food and hygiene products, rather than cash being spent elsewhere or sent home amid concerns the cash is being used to buy drugs, prostitutes, and other illicit purposes.

Hamburg was the first federal state to implement the card, issuing around 2,500 of them in the first half of 2024.

However, the Hamburg Refugee Council has actively opposed the payment card, launching the “No to payment card” initiative. The group advertises in English and Arabic on its website, offering detailed instructions on how to convert the benefits into cash.

Asylum seekers are advised to buy supermarket vouchers with their cards and exchange them for cash, or to participate in a “shopping tandem” scheme whereby they pay for a willing participant’s groceries with their card and receive cash.

The initiative claims to receive around 300 shopping vouchers monthly, converting them into €15,000 to €20,000 in cash, or roughly €50 per voucher.

According to the Hamburg Refugee Council, around 400 people, referred to as “solidarity shoppers,” participate in this workaround.

A similar scheme was reportedly launched earlier this year by the “Stay Open” alliance in Munich.

The group’s website calls for the legalization of all undocumented migrants and criticizes the mass classification of individuals as “illegal.”

“The introduction of the Hamburg SocialCard is a symbolic political act, which entails serious deterioration for those affected and is intended to continue to normalize hostility,” the website states.

The State Social Court of Hamburg recently upheld the legality of the payment card system, ruling that asylum seekers in reception centers do not require cash, as their basic needs are already covered. Nonetheless, the far-left campaign has vowed to continue until the policy is reversed.

The Greens threatened to pull out of the federal traffic-light coalition earlier this year over plans to expand the benefits card system across the country, warning it was discriminatory.

Read more here…

More than 70 percent of the products that wholesalers and retailers sell on Amazon are produced in China, according to a survey conducted by Jungle Scout and published by the ECDB.

The United States is the second largest producer of items sold on Amazon, accounting for 30 percent of all total goods sold through the e-commerce giant.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The retailers surveyed were able to list several countries in terms of source locations, which explains why the total share is above the 100 percent mark.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck notes, these figures illustrate the importance of China for Amazon’s business.

At the same time, Chinese companies such as the Pinduoduo Group are now trying to sell products from China directly to Western customers themselves.

This is with growing success, as the example of the e-commerce app Temu illustrates.

According to media reports, Amazon is now planning to launch its own low-cost offering.

A presentation seen by CNBC reveals the new store will offer a range of unbranded products with prices expected to be under $20.

Items cited include massage devices, fitness weights and cell phone cases. As with Temu, the products will be shipped directly from sellers in China.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

This is in response to Polish public opinion souring on the proxy war and the ruling liberal-globalist coalition consequently trying to exploit that in an attempt to raise the chances that their candidate replaces the outgoing conservative-nationalist president during next year’s election.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski proposed that Ukraine can order military equipment from his country on credit and then pay it back once the conflict ends in response to Zelensky complaining about Poland supposedly withholding some of its armaments such as the MiG-29 fighter jets. Sikorski also reminded Zelensky that Poland has done more for Ukraine than any other country in reference to President Andrzej Duda’s disclosure over the summer that it already gave 3.3% of its GPD to the cause.

Another important point that he made is that Poland is a “frontline country” against Russia and must therefore maintain its minimum national defense needs just in case the conflict spirals out of control. This echoed what Duda earlier said during his trip to South Korea about how:

“There is no scenario in which we hand over weapons that we have recently bought for billions of zlotys from the pockets of our taxpayers. These weapons must serve the security and defense of the Republic of Poland.”

That possibility had been discussed over the past few weeks amidst reports of North Korean troops fighting Ukraine, the rumors of which (whether true or not) were assessed here as a means for getting South Korea to send some of its enormous shell stockpile to Ukraine at this crucial moment in the conflict. Russia continues gaining ground, and its potential capture of Pokrovsk could prove to be a turning point for the reasons explained here. Even US intelligence and military officials fear the worst.

Poland’s refusal to give away any more of its military equipment for free, let alone that which it just obtained from South Korea, despite how urgent the situation has recently become isn’t surprising. Not only did it already max out everything that it can donate by this summer without endangering its minimum national defense needs, but it’s also wising up to the fact that it’s been exploited by Ukraine, which reportedly receives strings-attached military aid from everyone else but Poland.

There are also worsening political ties to consider after relations cooled over the past two months as the Volhynia Genocide dispute once again became a major issue. It’s beyond the scope of this analysis to elaborate on, but interested readers can learn more about it here, here, and here, with the takeaway being that Poland is disgusted that Ukraine refuses to exhume the victims’ remains. Sikorski and Zelensky also reportedly had a heated argument about this during the former’s visit to Kiev in mid-September.

That same report also claimed that Zelensky accused Poland of withholding military equipment from Ukraine during their argument, thus preceding what he explicitly complained about just last week. At the same time, Sikorski once again expressed support for Zelensky’s proposal that Poland intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine after the Helsinki Commission urged the US to approve this, but he also clarified that Poland won’t do so without support from NATO, which is presently lacking.

Considering this caveat and the US’ reluctance to approve direct NATO intervention in this conflict like that proposal requires, it’s likely that nothing will come of it unless hawkish American policymakers decide to “escalate to de-escalate” on more favorable terms out of desperation if the front collapses. Seeing as how there hasn’t been any serious indication of their interest in this thus far at least, it’s possible that Sikorski might be flirting with this doomed proposal to “save face” before Ukraine.

The return of the Volhynia Genocide dispute to the forefront of their political relations and Poland’s new policy of only transferring military equipment to Ukraine on credit instead of giving it away for free like before has harmed their ties so fantasizing about intercepting Russian missiles could just be a distraction. It’s a cost-free means of trying to manage their worsening ties, both in the political sphere as well as in the realm of public perceptions inside Ukraine, but some in the latter might see through this ruse.

In any case, what’s most important is that Poland is finally demanding something from Ukraine in return for all that it’s already done for it pro bono, namely the exhumation of the Volhynia Genocide victims’ remains and promises to pay for future arms imports at a later date. This new approach didn’t come about naturally but as a result to Polish society getting fed up with the proxy war as proven by a recent survey from a publicly financed research institution that was analyzed here.   

The only reason why Poland is wising up is because of next year’s presidential election that the ruling liberal-globalist coalition wants to win. Outgoing President Duda is a (very imperfect) conservative-nationalist who’s served to check returning Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ideologically driven domestic agenda. It’s therefore imperative for the ruling coalition to replace him one of their own, which could end up being Sikorski as he himself recently hinted in response to speculation about his candidacy.

This insight adds a new dimension to him championing Polish national interests in the Volhynia Genocide dispute and proposing a military loan to Ukraine instead of continuing to give everything away for free like before. It seems that he’s courting conservative-nationalist support for his possible candidacy via these means while also flirting with the scenario of intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine (which is likely a ruse as was earlier written) in order to retain the support of his party’s liberal-globalist base.

What matters most is that the first two parts of his potential candidacy’s foreign policy platform have respectively worsened ties with Ukraine and its military situation. Remembering that these approaches are the result of Polish society’s changing perceptions towards Ukraine ahead of next year’s presidential election, it can therefore be said that public opinion there is leading to tangible changes in the regional political and military situations, thus showing the power that Poles wield when they come together.