Month: November 2024

Shares of Globalstar jumped in premarket trading in New York after the company disclosed in a filing that it will expand its partnership with Apple to support Emergency SOS via satellite for new iPhones. 

Globalstar, a global satellite service firm headquartered in Covington, Louisiana, wrote in an 8k filing that its services with Apple over an Emergency SOS will expand, including a new satellite constellation, increased ground infrastructure, and a global licensing deal. 

Bloomberg highlighted the structure of the deal:

• The extended mobile satellite services network will be owned by a unit Globalstar SPE

• Apple will make an infrastructure prepayment of up to $1.1 billion and an amount necessary for Globalstar to retire its outstanding 13.00% Senior Notes due 2029

• Apple agreed to buy 400,000 Class B Units in the Globalstar SPE vehicle, representing a 20% equity interest, for $400 million

Globalstar forecasted its total annual revenue “to be more than double 2024 annualized levels with an improved EBITDA margin” after the launch of expanded satellite services with Apple. 

In markets, Globalstar shares soared 45% in premarket trading in New York. As of Thursday’s close, shares are down 46% on the year. 

Emergency SOS via satellite was a groundbreaking safety feature for newer iPhones launched by Apple in late 2022. It was delivered in partnership with Globalstar, and now, with Apple’s continued infrastructure investment, the service is being expanded.

Meanwhile… 

This is just the beginning.

My guess is that there will be as many Starlink direct to cell phone satellites as there are for our high bandwidth terminals.

As a rough rule of thumb, however, bandwidth will be ~1/10th as high for phones vs a dedicated Starlink antenna (physics… https://t.co/BDrAB7hqxR

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 30, 2024

. . .

Podcaster Joe Rogan on Oct. 31 released a roughly three-and-a-half-hour interview with Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), former President Donald Trump’s running mate.

During the interview, Rogan and Vance touched on a variety of topics related both to politics and Vance’s personal life.

Courtesy of The Epoch Times’ Joseph Lord and Jacob Burg, here are the biggest takeaways from the podcast.

How Trump Chose Him

Near the start of the interview, Vance discussed how he was selected to be Trump’s running mate—and how it’s changed his and his family’s life.

Vance said he didn’t learn that Trump had picked him until July 15, the first day of the Republican National Convention. That day, he said he missed Trump’s first effort to call him as he was playing with his children.

A few minutes later, he realized that he had missed the call and called Trump back.

“Hey, sir, what’s going on?” Vance recalled saying.

He said Trump replied: “JD, you’ve just missed a very important phone call. I’m gonna have to pick someone else.”

Vance said he began to panic, only for Trump to say: “No, I’m just kidding. Obviously, I want you to be my vice president.”

Vance said the call wasn’t a total surprise; by that point, he believed he had about a 60 percent chance of being picked for the No. 2 job.

Though Vance has been a U.S. Senator since 2023, he said he was able to remain somewhat anonymous most of the time—people often had no idea who he was.

“It’s definitely weird just not being anonymous at all anymore,” Vance said.

He noted the many changes that have occurred for his family since he became a candidate: his child’s schoolmates have started a game called “boss man” where they pretend to be Secret Service agents; Vance can’t drive his family around anymore; and he receives both praise and condemnation from people in public.

“There are a lot of benefits to it. There’s a lot of downsides to it,” Vance said. “It’s what I asked for. I don’t have to think too much about it or complain too much about it. I just try to accept it.”

Vance Skeptical of Money in Politics

Vance described how the Republican Party was changing under Trump—particularly in relation to its attitude toward corporations and money in politics.

Vance and Rogan discussed a variety of controversial social issues—transgenderism, environmentalism, Big Tech, and the pharmaceutical industry—that Vance said are all influenced by money.

Vance has often outlined a unique position on economic issues that aligns more closely with populism than with 20th-century Republican positions. He’s expressed support for unions in principle; he’s often critical of corporate and elite institutions; he’s pushed for state policies to incentivize the creation of families.

Once, Vance said, Republicans were openly the party of corporations. Since Trump’s entry into the party in 2016, however, Vance said that Republicans are now more willing to ask “Is this corporation’s interest in the American people’s interest?”

When evaluating other social movements, Vance said that people need to apply more scrutiny to their potential hidden motives.

For instance, he noted that transgender drugs and operations are profitable to the pharmaceutical industry, as were COVID-19 vaccines—particularly because pharmaceutical companies are given broad immunity from liability for adverse reactions.

“We should just ask ourselves, ‘Who’s getting rich from this stuff?’ Maybe we should be skeptical of people getting rich from this stuff,” Vance said.

“The whole conduit of money into politics is fundamentally broken, we have to fix that.”

Vance Confirms Chinese Cellphone Hack

Reports citing anonymous sources last week suggested that hackers linked to the Chinese Communist Party may have targeted Trump and Vance, although the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) could only confirm the hackers’ origin, not the victims.

The senator confirmed on Thursday that his and Trump’s cellphones had likely been compromised.

The exchange followed a question from Rogan about the United States’s vulnerability to cyber attacks.

“We do have a real problem … my phone was allegedly hacked by Chinese hackers,” Vance said.

Rogan asked the senator if the hack exposed anything critical on his phone, but Vance said he would have to wait and find out, although he uses message encryption, which prevented the hackers from seeing his private messages.

Vance said he learned that his and Trump’s phones were hacked due to telecommunications infrastructure that was implemented following the Patriot Act.

“What I’ve been told is that that infrastructure was used by this Chinese hacker organization called Salt Typhoon, and that’s how they got into the Verizon network, and that’s how they got into the AT&T network,” Vance said.

Vance’s claims could not be independently verified by The Epoch Times.

The CISA declined to comment on the matter.

The Epoch Times also requested comment from the FBI and Justice Department and received no response by publication time.

Abortion

The two also discussed abortion. Vance said he and Trump want to make it a state issue—so California can make its own laws while Alabama can do the same. Trump recently said he would veto a national abortion ban if Congress sent one to his desk. Vice President Kamala Harris has accused Trump of lying and has used the 2022 Supreme Court Dobbs decision to mobilize women voters.

Rogan said he worries that some states with strict bans could put women in “very vulnerable positions” if they seek care across state lines, and face potential legal consequences when they return home. The host also said the “life begins at conception” position is rooted in religion, and is concerned about that dictating “whether or not a person can legally travel to another state.”

Vance said he is not aware of laws that could do that, but nonetheless disagrees with arresting women seeking abortions.

“I think I’m trying to be fair to both sides here [and] balance the interest in life against the interest in autonomy,” Vance said, adding that “pro-life” people need to be “pro-family” beyond just being “pro-birth.”

During a Pennsylvania rally on Oct. 30, Vance said that he had sat down with Rogan for four hours earlier the same day. He used the opportunity to criticize Vice President Kamala Harris for not taking part in more interviews.

Harris has also been in communication with Rogan about joining his program, though her campaign has made demands Rogan is currently unwilling to accommodate. Rogan has left the door open to a later interview.

In our nonfarm payrolls preview last night, we said that the October payrolls report may show the first negative print since 2020. Well, moments ago the BLS reported the highly anticipated number and… it was close: the monthly print was only 12K, a huge drop from the pre-revision 254K in October (revised naturally lower to 223K), and just 13K away from a negative print.

The print was so low it was only above the two lowest estimates (those of Bloomberg Econ for -10K and ABN Amr0 for a 0 print). That means it was a 3 sigma miss to estimates.

And of course, as has been the case for the entire Biden admin, previous months were revised sharply lower once again: August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, and September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower than previously reported. This means that even after the monster September revision when 818K jobs were removed, 7 of the past 9 months were again revised lower!

This means that once the November jobs are released, we can be virtually certain that October will be revised to negative.

But wait, there’s more because while the total payroll number was just barely positive, if one excludes the 40K government jobs, private payrolls was in fact negative to the tune of -28K, down from 223K pre-revision last month, and the first negative print since December 2020. In other words, we were right… when it comes to actual, non-parasite “government” jobs.

To be sure, as we noted yesterday, a big part of the drop was due to the one-time event discussed, including the Boeing strike and Hurricanes Helene and Milton. This is what the BLS said on the topic: “In October, the household survey was conducted largely according to standard procedures, and response rates were within normal ranges” however, “the initial establishment survey collection rate for October was well below average. However, collection rates were similar in storm-affected areas and unaffected areas. A larger influence on the October collection rate for establishment data was the timing and length of the collection period. This period, which can range from 10 to 16 days, lasted 10 days in October and was completed several days before the end of the month.”

More importantly, the BLS said that “it is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events. There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey.”

Ironically, while the BLS was unable to “quantify the net effect” from the hurricanes, it was able to calculate that the number of people not at work due to weather surged to the third highest in recent history, up 512K!

In other words, the BLS now has an excuse to blame the plunge on, it just doesn’t know how to quantify it. Translation: if Trump is president next month, expect the downtrend to continue with little to no mention of hurricane as the BLS prepares to admit the true state of the labor market; if however Kamala wins, the November jobs will magically rebound (even as downward revisions accelerate) and all shall be back to fake normal.

Oh, and of course, today’s catastrophic jobs print gives the Fed a full carte blanche to again cut 25bps next week, even if the plunge was all hurricanes…

The rest of the jobs report was not that exciting: the unemployment rate printed at 4.1%, unchanged from last month and in line with expectations. The number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (13.8 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (3.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

It’s worth noting that the unemployment rate actually rose almost 0.1% despite being reported as flat because in September it was 4.05% and in October it was 4.145%, and rose due to a surge in layoffs (+166K) as well as re-entrants (+108K). Additionally, as Southbay research notes, the average duration of unemployment rose from 22.6 weeks to 22.9 weeks

Wage growth came in slightly higher than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% in October, higher than the 0.3% expected, and up from the downward revised 0.3% in September (was 0.4%). On an annual basis, earnings rose 4.0%, in line with expectations, and above the downward revised 3.9% (was 4.0%).

Some more stats from the latest monthly report:

• Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers edged up to 1.8 million in October. The number of people on temporary layoff changed little at 846,000.
• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.6 million in October. This measure is up from 1.3 million a year earlier. In October, the long-term unemployed accounted for 22.9 percent of all unemployed people.
• Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.6 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.0 percent, changed little in October.
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 million in October.
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.7 million, was essentially unchanged in October. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.6 million, was little changed in October. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little at 379,000 in October.

Turning to the establishment survey, we find the following breakdown in jobs:

• Health care added 52,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 58,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment rose in ambulatory health care services (+36,000) and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).
• Employment in government continued its upward trend in October (+40,000), similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in state government (+18,000).
• Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help services declined by 49,000 in October. Temporary help services employment has decreased by 577,000 since reaching a peak in March 2022.
• Manufacturing employment decreased by 46,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 44,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing that was largely due to strike activity.
• Employment in construction changed little in October (+8,000). The industry had added an average of 20,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Over the month, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 14,000 jobs.

And visually:

Three things stick out here:

• First, manufacturing is a disaster, with the US losing manufacturing jobs for 3 months in a row, and 4 of the last 5. Can’t blame that on hurricanes.

• Second, the number of construction jobs is becoming absolutely ridiculous, especially when contrasted with the plunge in actual housing starts, completions and last but not least, actual job openings.

• Finally, delta between government jobs and private jobs was a whopping 12K, the biggest since covid. This means that more government jobs were added in October than all private jobs lost in the month! Just in case you needed to know how the Biden admin avoided a negative total headline print.

Futures are higher on the first day of the month and ahead of what may be a very poor jobs report, with MegaCap tech leading. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were 0.4% with the benchmark on track for its worst weekly performance in more than a year amid unease over the outlook for artificial intelligence and cloud computing following results from Microsoft and Meta;  Nasdaq futures gained 0.5%, as AMZN and INTC surged 5.8% and 5.7%, respectively, after strong earnings while AAPL is down -1% after its guidance disappointed; NVDA is rebounding and is up +2.0% this morning. Bond yields are flat, and the USD is fractionally higher. Commodities are mixed, with oil higher (WTI +2.9%) amid renewed tension in the Middle East, base metals lower, and precious metals modestly higher. The main event today is the jobs report, but we also get the Mfg ISM, US Mfg PMI, and Construction Spending.

In premarket trading, Amazon.com and Intel shares surged on optimistic earnings results, while Apple declined after reporting softer demand in China, a miss in wearables and services revenue and disappointed with its holiday quarter guidance. Oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron both rose after earnings beats. Boeing gained after the aircraft maker reached a tentative agreement to end a labor dispute. Here are all the notable movers this morning:

• Abbott Laboratories (ABT US) shares rise 5.1% after a St. Louis jury cleared the company, along with a unit of Reckitt Benckiser, over claims they hid risks their premature-infant formulas can cause a bowel disease that severely sickened a baby boy. It was the firms’ first trial win in litigation over the products.
• ADMA Biologics (ADMA) shares rise 14% after KPMG agreed to be the biotech’s auditor, according to a filing, which analysts said should remove an overhang on the stock.
• Apple (AAPL) shares fall 1.7% after the iPhone maker reported fourth-quarter results that were weaker than expected on notable metrics, including its Services business and revenue in the intensely competitive China market.
• Amazon.com (AMZN) shares rise 7.1% after the e-commerce and cloud computing company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a solid outlook. Analysts cited margins, AWS and the international retail business as highlights of the quarter.
• Atlassian (TEAM) shares soar 21% after the enterprise software developer forecast revenue for its fiscal second quarter ahead of expectations and also beat first-quarter adjusted earnings consensus. KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded the company to overweight, noting that it had cleared a high bar.
• Globalstar (GSAT) shares surge 56% after the company agreed to deliver expanded services to Apple over a new mobile satellite services network, including a new satellite constellation, more ground infrastructure and increased global licensing.
• Intel (INTC) shares gain 5.4% after the chipmaker reported third-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate, raising optimism about the company’s turnaround effort. Analysts were positive about the quarter, but said that expectations were low going into the results.
• PayPal (PYPL) shares dip 0.5% after Phillip Securities downgraded the payments technology company to accumulate from buy, citing recent stock performance.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares fall 3.3%, putting the stock on track to drop for a third consecutive day, since Ernst & Young resigned as the company’s auditor, citing concerns about governance and transparency.

Today’s payrolls report (full preview here) could show job growth weakening, after the core PCE yesterday posted its biggest monthly gain since April. That muddied the water ahead of next week’s Fed policy meeting, with swaps pricing in 20 basis points of easing, down from 24 at the start of the week. Investors are also bracing for next week’s US election, with the VIX rising to levels last seen during the August market upheaval.

The “highly anticipated employment report, a busy week of earnings that includes a handful of the Magnificent Seven names, rising yields and, of course, next week’s U.S. election are all contributing to building angst in the market, not to mention the FOMC meeting,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. “We may need to wait until after Election Day for volatility to normalize as the VIX futures curve points to potential elevated near-term turbulence for stocks.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index advanced 0.7%, snapping three straight days of declines after they posted the worst monthly  drop in a year on Thursday; it remains on track for its biggest weekly drop in two months. Gains for energy stocks helped prop  up the gauge, with Shell Plc, Total Energies SE and BP Plc adding more than 1%. Consumer products also gained, boosted by Reckitt after a baby formula trial win. Reckitt Benckiser soared 10% after a unit of the household goods company was cleared by a jury over claims it hid health risks of its premature-infant formula. Only the travel & leisure sector is declining. Here are some of the most notable movers:

• Reckitt shares gain as much as 12%, their steepest rise since March 2000, while Abbott Labs rises in US premarket trading after a St. Louis jury cleared the companies over claims they hid risks their premature-infant formulas can cause a bowel disease that severely sickened a baby boy.
• HelloFresh shares rally as much as 11% to the highest since March after JPMorgan raises recommendation to overweight from neutral, saying earnings estimates are bottoming out while the stock’s valuation has become attractive following the meal-kit provider’s strategy pivot to shore up its profitability.
• Universal Music shares rise as much as 5.6% after reporting a stronger-than-expected growth in revenue generated from music subscriptions.
• Scout24 shares rise as much as 4.1%, hitting a new record high. Analysts at Barclays increased their price target on the stock by 10% after the online property platform said annual revenue growth will be at the upper-end of its guidance range as it reported a beat on Thursday.
• Boohoo shares gain as much as 6.7% after the online fashion retailer appointed Dan Finley, chief executive officer of the firm’s Debenhams unit, as group CEO.
• Kalmar shares gain as much as 12% to reach a record high after the Finnish industrial crane firm reported blow-out earnings. DNB flagged beats on most key metrics.
• Meyer Burger shares sink as much as 25% to a record low after the Swiss solar panel maker reported a wider first-half loss.
• Fugro shares fall as much as 21% after the Dutch geological data firm’s third-quarter earnings missed estimates, with revenue coming under pressure amid “short-term market-driven challenges” in the Americas, as well as conflicts in the Middle East, according to a release.
• Fielmann shares fall as much as 11%, the steepest intraday drop in two years, after the German eyewear firm’s third-quarter results missed estimates.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, set to cap their fifth-straight week of losses, as a stream of earnings reports failed to lift sentiment ahead of next week’s US election and a key meeting of China’s legislative body. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8% Friday, on course for its longest weekly losing streak in more than two years. Japanese stocks fell the most since Sept. 30, after the yen strengthened against the dollar following Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments; benchmarks in Australia and South Korea also slipped. Tech megacaps including TSMC and SoftBank were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge. Equity benchmarks rose in Hong Kong after a private survey showed China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly picked up last month, a sign of stabilization on Beijing’s stimulus blitz. Traders are awaiting a session by the Standing Committee of National People’s Congress over Nov. 4-8, where further fiscal measures may be announced.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2%. The yen weakens 0.5%, extending declines after the DPP chief said the BOJ shouldn’t raise interest rates before March. The Swiss franc drops 0.5% after CPI surprised to the downside.

In rates, US Treasuries were steady after minor gains Thursday. But October was the worst month for Treasuries in two years after the heavy selling of the past few weeks that reflected a rethink on US interest rates given signs of resilience in the economy. Front-end yields are higher by 1bp-2bp inside Thursday’s ranges, which included the highest 2- and 5-year yields since July-August. 10-year yields around 4.29% are only slightly cheaper on the day amid similarly muted price action in bunds and gilts; 5s30s spread near 30bp is ~1bp tighter on the day, 13bp on the week UK bonds fell, extending losses this week after the Labour government’s pivotal budget and plans for additional bond sales unleashed a wave of selling. UK 10-year yields rise 2 bps to 4.47%.

In commodities, brent crude futures rose 2% to $74.30 after a report that Iran could be preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days. European stocks gain for the first time in four days, led by energy and personal care names. US equity futures also rise as Amazon and Intel shares rally in premarket post-earnings, offsetting a fall in shares of Apple. Spot gold is steady around $2,746/oz.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,753.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 507.91
• MXAP down 0.6% to 185.03
• MXAPJ up 0.2% to 591.43
• Nikkei down 2.6% to 38,053.67
• Topix down 1.9% to 2,644.26
• Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 20,506.43
• Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,272.01
• Sensex down 0.7% to 79,389.06
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 8,118.83
• Kospi down 0.5% to 2,542.36
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.41%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.0859
• Brent Futures up 2.7% to $74.76/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,754.19
• US Dollar Index up 0.13% to 104.11

Top Overnight News

• China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for Oct comes in ahead of expectations at 50.3 (up from 49.3 in Sept and higher than the Street’s 49.7 forecast). WSJ
• China has slashed its dependency on US food imports, putting it in a better position to withstand increased trade tensions w/Washington. RTRS  
• South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol is weighing directly providing arms to Ukraine, a potentially consequential shift in the conflict, in response to North Korea’s deployment of troops to the Russian front line. FT
• Blinken says Israel and Lebanon are making progress on how to implement a UN resolution that could be the foundation for ending the present war. RTRS  
• Donald Trump sued CBS, alleging it engaged in election interference by airing two different versions of an interview with Kamala Harris. He’s seeking $10 billion in damages. LeBron James endorsed Harris. BBG
• Apple shares fell premarket after a tepid sales forecast added to lingering concerns about the China market. Amazon reported strong results in cloud and e-commerce. Intel sparked optimism over its turnaround after its revenue outlook slightly beat. Shares jumped. BBG
• We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 95k in October, below consensus of +105k and the three-month average of +186k. Alternative measures of employment growth were mixed, and strikes and the recent hurricanes likely weighed on payrolls growth this month. GIR
• The oil and gas industry has achieved the biggest labor productivity gains of any US sector over the past decade. Crude output has risen to a record 13.3 million barrels a day, 48% more than Saudi Arabia — all with less than a third of the rigs and far fewer workers than 10 years ago. BBG
• Boeing and union leaders representing 33,000 striking workers reached a tentative deal that includes a 38% wage increase over four years and a $12,000 signing bonus, though doesn’t reinstate defined-benefit pension plans. Workers will vote on the proposal Monday. Shares rose premarket. BBG
• China’s residential property sales rose in October, the first year-on-year increase of 2024, as the government’s latest stimulus blitz brought back buyers. The value of new-home sales from the 100 biggest real estate companies rose 7.1% from a year earlier to 435.5 billion yuan ($61.2 billion), reversing from a 37.7% slump in September, according to preliminary data from China Real Estate Information Corp. Sales surged 73% from a month earlier. BBG

Earnings

• Apple Inc (AAPL) Q4 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.64 (exp. 1.58), Revenue 94.93bln (exp. 94.58bln), Products revenue 69.96bln (exp. 69.15bln), iPhone revenue 46.22bln (exp. 45.04bln), Mac revenue: 7.74bln (exp. 7.74bln), iPad revenue: 6.95bln (exp. 7.07bln), Wearables, home, and accessories revenue: 9.04bln (exp. 9.17bln), Service revenue: 24.97bln (exp. 25.27bln), Greater China revenue fell 0.3% Y/Y to 15.03bln (exp. 15.8bln), Co. expects Q1 rev. growth at low to mid-single digits.. -1.1% pre-market
• Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q3 2024 (USD): EPS 1.43 (exp. 1.14), Revenue 158.9bln (exp. 157.2bln). +6.2% pre-market
• Intel Corp (INTC) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.46 (exp. -0.02), Revenue 13.3bln (exp. 13.02bln). +6.1% pre-market
• Chevron Corp (CVX) Q3 2024 (USD): adj. EPS 2.51 (exp. 2.43), revenue 48.9bln (exp. 48.99bln). +2.8% pre-market

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the tech-heavy losses stateside and heightened geopolitical concerns, while Chinese markets outperformed after further encouraging manufacturing PMI data.  ASX 200 declined with nearly all industries subdued aside from the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open after recent currency strength and the hawkish tone from BoJ Governor Ueda. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned after the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI followed suit to yesterday’s official release with a surprise return to expansion territory, while the attention was also on recent earnings reports.

Top Asian News

• China National People’s Congress Standing Committee proposed a law amendment for further refining government debt supervision, while it added the provision state council and above county-level governments should report on debt management progress.
• IMF expects Asia’s economy to expand by 4.6% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025 but noted risks to Asia’s economic outlook are tilted to the downside and that an acute risk for Asia is an escalation in tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs between major trading partners. Furthermore, it stated that persistent downward price pressures from China can hurt countries with similar export structures and provoke trade tensions, as well as noted that China’s property sector problems have not been addressed comprehensively, leading to plummeting consumer confidence.
• Japan’s Opposition, DPP Chief Tamaki says “the BoJ should not raise interest rates for at least half a year”.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.6%) are entirely in the green, with sentiment lifted following strong results from Amazon/Intel which have ultimately been able to outmuscle pre-market losses in Apple. European sectors hold a positive bias. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, lifted by Reckitt after it received a favourable litigation decision. Energy follows close behind, with oil prices firmer amid heightened geopolitical tensions – as such, Travel & Leisure lags. US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.4%, RTY +0.1%) are modestly firmer, and with sentiment on a stronger footing after good results from Amazon and Intel; traders await US NFP/ISM Manufacturing later in the session.

Top European News

• Moody’s says the UK budget creates challenges as it warns of a muted UK growth, according to the FT.
• S&P says UK fiscal position is constrained following budget announcements; new budget decisions, however, do not have an immediate impact on headline budgetary forecasts for the UK

FX

• USD is broadly firmer vs. peers with DXY back above the 104 mark. Today’s main data highlight is of course the US NFP report whereby expectations are for a cooling in the headline rate to 113k amid weather and strike activity distortions; the unemployment rate is not expected to be impacted. For now, DXY is tucked within yesterday’s 103.82-104.21 range.
• EUR is softer vs. the USD after a recent run of gains that have been underpinned by firmer growth and inflation metrics from the Eurozone. EUR/USD has been as low as 1.0858 but is holding above Thursday’s low at 1.0843.
• After two sessions of losses vs. the USD in the wake of Wednesday’s UK budget, Cable is attempting to stabilise and has managed to make its way back onto a 1.29 handle after drifting as low as 1.2843 Thursday.
• After strengthening vs. the USD in the wake of the BoJ policy announcement and subsequent hawkish Ueda press conference yesterday, JPY has returned to its recent trend of losses vs. the USD. USD/JPY has been as high as 152.83.
• Antipodeans are both marginally softer vs. the USD in quiet newsflow for both countries.
• CHF is the laggard across the majors following soft Swiss inflation data. The release has stoked fears that Switzerland could enter into deflation next year and therefore expectations of a 50bps cut by the SNB have heightened (currently priced at 28%).
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1135 vs exp. 7.1122 (prev. 7.1250).

Fixed Income

• USTs are a handful of ticks lower, 110-09+ base matches the week’s opening level and is 6+ ticks clear of Thursday’s WTD base. Focus entirely on Payrolls, forecast range of -10k to +200k, with ISM Manufacturing thereafter.
• Bunds are softer as the week’s bearish action continues but thus far we remain clear of the WTD 131.15 trough by around 30 ticks but still in the red for the week as a whole by over a full point.
• Gilts opened lower by 21 ticks, stabilised briefly before slipping to a 93.45 trough, a low which is just above yesterday’s 93.18 contract low. As such, while the UK’s 10yr yield is elevated it remains shy of 4.5% and Thursday’s 4.52% YTD high.
• UK Treasury official says the scenario currently is very different from the Truss-budget.

Commodities

• Crude is on a firmer footing as recent rhetoric brings back risk-premium into the weekend. Focus on an Axios piece that Iran is reportedly preparing a major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days. Brent’Jan 25 currently near session highs of USD 74.94/bbl.
• Spot gold is firmer, though action is minimal with the metal contained into NFP & ISM Manufacturing. Holding just above the USD 2750/oz mark and yet to make any real headway into recovering towards the USD 2790/oz ATH from early-doors yesterday.
• Base metals are firmer, owing to the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI making a surprising return to expansionary territory. 3M LME Copper above the USD 9.6k mark, though the move has paused for breath with the docket now light until the US data deluge.

Geopolitics

• Lebanese Prime Minister Mikati says “the continuation of Israeli attacks is an indication of Tel Aviv’s rejection of all efforts to cease fire”, via Asharq News
• Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei instructed the Supreme National Security Council on Monday to prepare for attacking Israel, according to NYT citing three Iranian officials familiar with the war planning. Khamenei was said to have made the decision after he reviewed a detailed report from senior military commanders on the extent of damage to Iran’s missile production capabilities and air defence systems around Tehran, critical energy infrastructure and a main port in the south.
• Israel conducted strikes on Beirut suburbs for the first time in days, while a Lebanese news agency reported that dozens of buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut were flattened by Israeli raids, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it attacked with marches a vital target in the south of the occupied territories several times since dawn today, according to Al Jazeera.
• US Defence Secretary Austin spoke to Israeli Defence Minister Gallant and reaffirmed the US remains fully prepared to defend US personnel and partners across the region against threats from Iran, according to the Pentagon.
• US State Department issued a response to Israel’s cabinet decision on extending indemnification for correspondent banking between Israel and West Bank in which it stated the short-term extension creates another looming crisis by November 30th and called for Israel to swiftly extend indemnification for essential banking relationships for at least a year.
• North Korea’s Standing Committee Chairman Choe says we need to strengthen nuclear weapons and improve readiness for a retaliatory nuclear strike.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Oct. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 100,000, prior 254,000
  • Oct. Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -30,000, prior -7,000
  • Oct. Change in Private Payrolls, est. 70,000, prior 223,000
• 08:30: Oct. Unemployment Rate, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1%
  • Oct. Underemployment Rate, prior 7.7%
  • Oct. Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.7%, prior 62.7%
• 08:30: Oct. Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.2, prior 34.2
  • Oct. Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%
  • Oct. Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 47.8, prior 47.8
• 10:00: Sept. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.1%
• 10:00: Oct. ISM Manufacturing, est. 47.6, prior 47.2
  • Oct. ISM Employment, est. 45.0, prior 43.9
  • Oct. ISM New Orders, est. 47.0, prior 46.1
  • Oct. ISM Prices Paid, est. 50.0, prior 48.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets finished October on a rough note yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-1.86%) posting its biggest decline in nearly two months, whilst UK assets lost significant ground thanks to investor concerns about Wednesday’s Budget. We’ll have more to say in our monthly performance review out shortly, but the declines mean that Bloomberg’s global bond aggregate has just experienced its worst month since September 2022, back when inflation was still raging and the Fed was hiking by 75bps each meeting. And for equities it’s been a lacklustre month as well, with the S&P 500 losing ground for the first time in six months.

In terms of the last 24 hours, there were several factors driving the losses, but an important one was disappointment at the big tech earnings after the previous day’s close. That meant the Magnificent 7 (-3.55%) slumped back, with Microsoft (-6.05%) experiencing its biggest daily decline in two years after they announced a weaker forecast for cloud revenue growth. But even though tech stocks led the declines in the S&P 500 (-1.86%), the losses were pretty broad, and the equal-weighted version of the index (-1.10%) also saw its weakest day since early September. Those moves were echoed in Europe too, where the STOXX 600 (-1.20%) fell to its lowest level since mid-August.

After the close, we did hear from Apple and Amazon who delivered a mixed set of results. Apple’s shares fell by close to 2% in post-market trading as it signalled slower sales growth “in the low-to-middle single digits” for the coming quarter, versus analysts’ projections for a 7% increase. By contrast, Amazon gained nearly 6% after delivering a strong profit beat. So with six of the Mag-7 reporting so far, we’ve seen an equal split of positive (Tesla, Alphabet and Amazon) and negative (Microsoft, Apple and Meta) reactions. That’s helped US equity futures to stabilise again this morning, with those on the S&P 500 pointing to a +0.24% gain.

The other big sell-off yesterday happened in the UK, as markets reacted negatively to the extra borrowing announced in the previous day’s budget. Specifically, the spread of 10yr gilt yields over bunds widened by +9.4bps to 206bps, which is their biggest gap since October 2022, back when Liz Truss was still Prime Minister. Moreover, in absolute terms, the 10yr gilt yield was up +9.5bps to 4.44%, which is its highest level since November 2023, and at the height of the sell-off they’d been up as much as +18bps intraday to 4.53%. So it was only thanks to the late recovery that things weren’t even worse. The effects were clear across other asset classes too, and sterling was the worst-performing G10 currency yesterday, weakening by -0.49% against the US Dollar to $1.2899. And with the extra borrowing announcements, investors also dialled back their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England, so by the close they were pricing in 80bps of rate cuts by the June 2025 meeting, down from 86bps on Wednesday.

Bonds also struggled in the rest of Europe, albeit to a much lesser extent than in the UK. This followed an upside surprise in the Euro Area inflation print, which raised doubts as to how quickly the ECB would be able to cut rates in the months ahead. It showed headline inflation was back at the ECB’s target of +2.0% in October (vs. +1.9% expected), while core CPI remained at +2.7% (vs. +2.6% expected). So it contributed to a sell-off in front-end yields as investors priced out the chance of rate cuts, with the 2yr German yield up +2.2bps. Further out the curve, yields were much steadier however, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.1bps) basically unchanged at 2.39%.

Over in the US, there’s still plenty of focus on Tuesday’s election, and yesterday saw markets react to the perception that a Republican sweep scenario was marginally less likely relative to the day before, with the prospects ticking down on prediction markets. At the margins, that was helpful for US Treasuries, given it would be more difficult to enact expansive fiscal plans under divided government, and the 10yr Treasury yield came down -1.6bps to 4.28%. Moreover, it was clear that several Trump trades were unwinding a bit, with Trump Media & Technology Group (-11.72%) falling for a second day, whilst Bitcoin fell -3.98%. Forecasting models remain very tight, with FiveThirtyEight’s model placing a 53% likelihood on a Trump victory.

Investor attention will remain on the US today given the US jobs report for October, which is the last one ahead of the Fed’s decision next week. As a reminder, the last jobs report was much stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls at +254k in September, alongside positive revisions to the previous couple of months. This time around though, our US economists are forecasting a weaker +100k print, which partly reflects a 44k drag from striking workers, as well as a negative impact from Hurricane Milton, which struck Florida during the October survey period. They also expect the unemployment rate to tick up a tenth to 4.2%. Click here for their full preview and how to register for their subsequent webinar.

Ahead of that, we did get some decent data on the US labour market yesterday, with the weekly initial jobless claims down to 216k in the week ending October 26 (vs. 230k expected), which is their lowest level since May. We also had the latest PCE inflation report for September, which the measure that the Fed officially target. That showed core PCE was up to a 5-month high of +0.25%, and the year-on-year rate remained at +2.7% (vs. +2.6% expected). But headline PCE was down to just +2.1% on a year-on-year basis, which is the lowest rate since February 2021. In the meantime, the Employment Cost Index for Q3 came in at +0.8% over the quarter, the weakest since Q2 2021.

In geopolitical news, oil prices rose after Axios reported that Israeli intelligence suggested Iran was planning a retaliatory strike against Israel using its proxies in Iraq. Brent crude rose +0.84% yesterday and is trading another +1.34% higher this morning at $74.14/bbl. Meanwhile, gold (-1.57%) saw its biggest retreat since July yesterday, slipping back from its record high on Wednesday.

Overnight in Asia, the sell-off has generally continued for risk assets, with the Nikkei (-2.43%) currently on course for its biggest decline in a month. Indices across other countries have also lost ground, with the KOSPI down -0.27%, and the S&P/ASX 200 down -0.51%. However, markets in mainland China and Hong Kong have outperformed, which comes as the Caixin China manufacturing PMI has moved back into expansionary territory in October with a 50.3 reading (vs. 49.7 expected). So against that backdrop, the Shanghai Comp (+0.33%), the CSI 300 (+0.65%) and the Hang Seng (+1.00%) have all posted solid gains this morning.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the October jobs report, along with the ISM manufacturing. Otherwise, earnings releases include Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

After rejecting two previous labor contract deals from Boeing, the planemaker’s union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, reached a tentative agreement overnight, urging 33,000 striking union members to vote on the new and improved contract this Monday.

“Your Union is endorsing and recommending the latest IAM/Boeing Contract Proposal. It is time for our Members to lock in these gains and confidently declare victory,” IAM District 751 wrote on X.

Boeing and IAM negotiators found common ground, agreeing on a 38% wage increase over a new four-year labor contract, which includes a $12,000 signing bonus.

IAM District 751 stated, “In every negotiation and strike, there is a point where we have extracted everything that we can in bargaining and by withholding our labor,” adding, “We are at that point now and risk a regressive or lesser offer in the future.”

The union highlighted two major changes in the contract:

• A 38% General Wage Increase (GWI) over four years, broken down as 13%, 9%, 9%, and 7%, compounding to 43.65% over the life of the agreement.

• A $12,000 Ratification bonus, combining the previous $7,000 ratification bonus and a $5,000 lump sum into the 401(k). Members can now choose how this amount is received—in their paycheck, as a contribution to their 401(k), or a combination of both.

Here are the highlights of the new labor deal:

In short, IAM District 751 has emphasized to its members that they’ve reached the end of the negotiation process—this deal is as good as it’s going to get.

Boeing shares rose a little more than 2% in premarket trading in New York. As of Thursday’s close, they are down 43% for the year.

The nearly two-month labor action has taken a financial toll on Boeing, with production lines of its commercial jets shuttered on the West Coast. On Monday, the company announced a $21 billion capital raise to offset the cash drain and strengthen its balance sheet to protect its prized investment-grade credit rating.

Authored by Jim Lee via RealClearPennsylvania,

Currently, both the national climate and the polling seems to point to a Trump victory in November. For instance, according to polling averages , only 28% of Americans say the country is going in the right direction, compared to 61% who say it’s on the wrong track. Why is this important? Because wrong track voters are more apt to vote for the party out of power – i.e., the Trump campaign – than the party “in power.”

Second, President Joe Biden’s average approval rating is still at a dismal 41% nationally, with a higher 56% of Americans saying they disapprove of his job performance. Why is this important?  Because if Americans are unhappy with the president’s job performance, they theoretically should be less likely to vote for another four years of his administration with a vote for the Harris campaign. And remember, when Kamala Harris was asked on a national network television program just recently if she would have done anything different than Biden, she couldn’t answer. In other words, she seems to have unwittingly conceded that she represents another four years of a Biden presidency. 

Another reason the political climate seems to favor Republicans at the current time has to do with how Americans are self-identifying in polls. According to national polling, in October 2016, the country self-identified as Democrat by a 3-point margin over Republicans. In October 2020, the country self-identified as Democrat by a higher 6-point margin. But in September of this year, just last month, new polling showed Republicans with a 1-point lead over Democrats on party self-identification. This could prove important because it seems to suggest that more Americans are aligned with the GOP brand than the Democrats – another good sign for the Trump campaign.

Moreover, the current polling has shifted in Trump’s favor both nationally and in critical battleground states. For instance, the RCP average of national polls now shows Trump with a 48.4 to 48.3% lead – just one tenth of a percent difference, but still leaning Trump. This is a big deal because the national popular vote has favored Harris for months, but now has shifted in Trump’s favor.  This could be a sign of which way the political winds are blowing. Plus, polling averages currently show that Trump leads in all seven battleground states, including Pennsylvania (.6 percent lead), Michigan (.2 points), Wisconsin (.2 points), Arizona (1.5 points), North Carolina (.8 points), Georgia (2.2 points) and Nevada (.7 points). These are RCP averages as of October 26.

In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is significant when you consider that on that day in 2020, Biden led in the RCP averages in Pennsylvania by 4.8%; Biden of course went on to eek out a narrow margin over Trump by only 1.2%.  Back in 2016 at this time, Hillary Clinton led in the RCP averages by 4.3 points, only to lose to Trump by a razor-thin, 48.58 to 47.85 margin on Election Day (or 44,292 votes).

So, are we on the cusp of a landslide (Electoral College) victory for Trump? No one knows for sure, but it could happen. In Pennsylvania, our latest poll shows a 46% to 45.8% statistical tie between Trump and Harris (Harris leading by .2 percentage points). This poll was conducted October 18-22 with a sample size of 500 likely voters. But there is plenty of good news for Trump in this poll. 

For instance, Trump looks poised to overperform his 2020 numbers with Republicans.  In the current survey, Trump is winning Republicans by an 89.4% to 3.7% margin over Harris. Why is this important?  In 2020, Trump lost 8% of the GOP vote to Biden – a huge setback in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans. More importantly, Trump is doing better with Independents in the current survey, currently leading them 43.9% to 36.4%. In 2020, Biden carried Independents by a 52:44 margin according to CNN exit polls. If Trump wins Independents in Pennsylvania, which constitute about 16% of the electorate and are technically the fastest growing cohort of the voter registration rolls, he will likely win the Keystone State.

And the political issues currently favor a Trump victory in terms of what is influencing people’s vote choices. For instance, in our Pennsylvania survey, 45% say inflation and the economy is the top issue that will influence peoples’ votes for a candidate, while immigration is second (at 32%). No other issue polls higher. Inflation/economy voters are breaking for Trump by a 57.4% to 35.4% margin. Immigration voters favor Trump by a whopping 72.7% to 17.4% margin. So, if voters go to the polls thinking about inflation, the economy and illegal immigration, Trump is likely to win. Lower ranking issues like protecting democracy, reproductive rights, and healthcare access all favor the Harris narrative.

Yet despite all these factors pointing in Trump’s direction, our polling still shows a statistical tie, so Harris can’t be counted out. In the poll, there are some red flags for Trump. For instance, voters who say they already cast early ballots favor Harris by a 53.9% to 37.1% margin. This means Harris has the edge in early returns with absentee and mail in ballots. Plus, Trump doesn’t seem to be getting much traction with Hispanic/Latino voters, which make up about 8% of the state’s electorate and are a fast-growing cohort in suburban areas like Lancaster, Reading, Allentown and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton media markets. In the current survey, Harris leads Trump with Latino voters 76.7% to 20.0%. This suggests an underperformance for Trump when you consider that Trump got 27% of the Latino vote in 2020 according to exit polls. In addition, in a separate poll we recently conducted in the hotly contested 10th congressional district election (between GOP incumbent U.S. Rep. Scott Perry and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson), Harris actually leads Trump by a 46:41 margin – a reversal from a 4-point Trump victory in this same district in 2020. So, Trump seems be underperforming in some Mid-state counties, which are a must win area for him when you consider that our polling shows Trump will lose the vote-rich Philadelphia suburban collar counties, plus the state’s two major urban centers of Allegheny and Philadelphia counties. Let’s not forget that in 2020, Biden carried the Keystone State but only by winning 13 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties – a highly surgical approach to victory.

So, the current survey seems to suggest a very close race on Election Day in a very pivotal battleground state. Turnout could be the deciding factor in determining the outcome. This is because Pennsylvania is almost a 50:50 state in voter registration since the GOP has narrowed the voter registration edge to fewer than a 300,000 vote-difference, or a current 44% Democrat to 40% GOP margin; independents and other third-party voters make up the remaining 16%.  Exit polls in 2020 showed a +1 percent margin for GOP versus Democrats in party self-Identification. In the current poll, Trump is winning Republicans 89.4% to 3.7% over Harris, while Harris is winning Democrats 90.8% to 3.2% over Trump. So, both candidates seem to be doing equally well in their respective bases of support. This means it’s hard to tell if the “never Trump” campaign narrative is getting real traction or is simply a red herring.  This means whichever candidate gets more of their voters to the polls will likely be the victor. Other states will see similar trend lines since states like Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin are also states where Republicans and Democrats are relatively equal in voter registration. Turnout will play a critical role in this election, and the party that gets their vote out could have the edge on Election Day.

Following an uptick in IPO activity in 2023, with Instacart, Klaviyo and Birkenstock among the larger names making their stock market debut last year, the U.S. IPO market continued its gradual recovery in 2024 so far.

As Statista’s Felix Richter details below, three quarters into the year, the market has already eclipsed last year’s total in terms of capital raised, as the number of completed offerings is just six shy of last year’s total.

Reddit’s highly anticipated IPO in March was one of the banner deals of the year and served as proof of a slightly more favorable environment compared to the past two years.

The company’s shares are currently trading at $81, up more than 100 percent from its IPO price of $34.

According to Dealogic data analyzed by EY, companies raised $27.3 billion in 121 initial public offerings in the U.S. so far this year, compared to $19.4 billion in 101 IPOs during the same period of 2023.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Going forward, EY expects IPO activity to possibly cool in Q4 as the U.S. presidential election and geopolitical concerns create an environment of uncertainty that companies and underwriting banks will try to avoid.

That cautious approach could create a backlog of IPOs for 2025, which could see a return to more normal IPO activity if the Fed continues on its path of gradually loosening monetary conditions.

Authored by Mary Man via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Billionaire John Paulson said he would work with Elon Musk to cut federal spending, particularly by reducing green energy subsidies, if appointed Treasury Secretary under Trump’s administration.

Paulson shared these comments during a Tuesday interview with The Wall Street Journal. “All of these tax subsidies for solar, for wind, inefficient, uneconomic energy sources. Eliminate that. That brings down spending,” he told the media outlet.

He specifically mentioned targeting green energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act, which he referred to as the “Green New Deal.”

A staunch Trump ally and major donor to his 2016, 2020, and 2024 campaigns, Paulson is also a trustee of the conservative Manhattan Institute, chaired by fellow Wall Street executive Paul Singer. Trump has named Paulson a possible Treasury Secretary if he wins the 2024 election.

Paulson’s stance mirrors Musk’s, who claimed he could slash at least $2 trillion from the federal budget.

“Your money is being wasted,” Musk said at a Trump rally on Oct. 27 at New York’s Madison Square Garden. “We’re going to get the government off your back and out of your pocketbook.”

The $2 trillion target amounts to nearly a third of current spending, with the federal government spending $6.75 trillion in fiscal year 2024, according to the Treasury Department.

Trump mentioned that he asked Musk to lead the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) aimed at auditing U.S. federal agencies. Musk replied on X, saying, “I can’t wait. There is a lot of waste and needless regulation in government that needs to go.”

Neither Trump nor Musk has provided details on the specific programs they would cut.

Musk, like Paulson, is a prominent Trump supporter, campaigning with him, donating nearly $120 million to a pro-Trump super PAC, and pledging $1 million to voters who support free speech and gun rights. On Monday, Philadelphia’s district attorney asked a state judge to block Musk’s $1 million giveaway, calling it an “illegal lottery scheme.”

The Treasury Secretary manages federal finances and tax laws, often engaging with Wall Street, business leaders, and foreign dignitaries.

Paulson is among several candidates being considered for the role, alongside Scott Bessent, founder of Key Square Group and a Trump ally on Wall Street, former trade ambassador Robert Lighthizer, and former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton.

Paulson said that if nominated, he would not anticipate pushback from the Senate.

“I have good relationships with senators on both sides of the aisle. The review process is a rigorous process. That’s a hurdle that would have to be crossed before we get to the Senate. I think once we cross that review process, I wouldn’t expect opposition.” he told The Wall Street Journal.

The economy stands as the top issue for voters in the 2024 presidential election. A Gallup poll found it is the only topic over 50 percent of registered voters rated as “extremely important” in shaping their decision.

With less than one week until Election Day, polls report a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in seven key battleground states, with Trump holding a slight national lead, according to RealClearPolitics.

From NTD News

Dividend stocks have historically shown growth, even during periods of recession.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti showcases the top 15 ‘Dividend Kings’ in 2024, as identified by FinanceCharts, based on data available as of October 2024.

What Makes a Company a Dividend King?

A key benefit of investing in dividend-paying companies is that dividends typically grow steadily, with well-established firms often increasing payouts annually.

Dividend Kings are companies that have increased their dividends annually for more than 50 years.

Dividend Royalty

Altria Group offers the highest dividend yield at 8.18%. Formerly known as Philip Morris, the American corporation is one of the world’s largest producers and marketers of tobacco, cigarettes, and medical products for treating smoking-related illnesses.

Altria is followed by Universal, another tobacco company. The leading global supplier of leaf tobacco offers a dividend yield of 6.5%.

Northwest Natural Holding ranks third in our list. The company provides natural gas service to approximately two million people in Oregon and Southwest Washington.

Genuine Parts and Northwest Natural have the longest dividend-raising streaks on our list, both at 68 years.

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

To learn more about personal finances, check out this graphic on the cost of the American dream in 2024.

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Nearly half (48 percent) of Generation Z voters and 23 percent of U.S. voters overall have lied about their voting preferences this year to people close to them, according to a recent Axios Vibes survey conducted by The Harris Poll.

The poll, which surveyed 1,858 registered voters online between Oct. 22 and 24, found that 58 percent of overall voters say their preferences are a private matter, with 33 percent saying they aren’t close to certain family members due to different political beliefs. For Gen Z voters—aged between 18 and 27—that number is 44 percent, and for Millennials (aged 28–43), that number is 47 percent.

The survey found that those who came of age during the Trump era are seemingly more sensitive to perceived social pressure and judgment from friends or family.

“There’s a new privacy emerging here, where it’s far more convenient to either lie or not talk about it,” said John Gerzema, CEO of The Harris Poll. “The new social etiquette is to be like Switzerland: Why do you want that heat?”

Among Generation X voters, those born between 1965 and 1980, 17 percent said they had lied to someone close about who they were voting for this year, while 6 percent of those born before 1965 said the same. Another 22 percent of overall voters said they would potentially lie about their voting preferences this year.

Across the political spectrum, 27 percent of Democrats, 24 percent of Republicans, and 20 percent of independent voters said they’ve lied about who they are voting for.

The survey did not ask respondents why they had lied or to whom they had lied.

Gerzema said the toxicity of political polarization has pushed many Americans into self-censoring or lying about voter preferences to maintain social, familial, and workplace relationships. Those raised on smartphones tend to be more averse to social or workplace confrontations over politics and may lie about who they’re voting for to avoid an awkward altercation, Gerzema said.

The Axios Vibes survey also found that 30 percent of men had said they lied about who they voted for compared to 17 percent of women, suggesting that some could be silent supporters of either Trump or Harris amid social pressure to vote for either candidate.

The survey found 40 percent of voters said they’re waiting until election day to vote, in case there is a change in the final week, with 8 percent saying it would be a “gut decision” at the voting booth.

The economy remains the key concern among voters when choosing a candidate, according to a Gallup poll released on Oct. 9. It shows that 52 percent of voters, surveyed in the last two weeks of September, said that the economy was “extremely important” when determining their choice for president, while another 38 percent saw it as “very important.”