Novo Nordisk Crashes Most On Record After CagriSema GLP-1 Results Disappoint

Novo Nordisk’s top-line efficacy results for its experimental obesity drug, CagriSema, were just released, missing the pharma’s estimate of 25% weight loss over 68 weeks, coming in at just 22.7%. This sent shares of Novo in Europe crashing the most on record. 

The results: 

When evaluating the effects of treatment if all people adhered to treatment1, people treated with CagriSema achieved a superior weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks compared to a reduction of 11.8% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg, 16.1% with semaglutide 2.4 mg and 2.3% with placebo alone. In addition, 40.4% of patients who received CagriSema reached a weight loss of 25% or more after 68 weeks, compared to 6.0% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg, 16.2% with semaglutide 2.4 mg, and 0.9% with placebo.

Novo previously forecasted the experimental obesity drug would help patients achieve at least 25% weight loss. 

Meanwhile, Goldman’s James Quigley was most bullish on the street, with an estimated 27-28% weight loss. 

To start the week, we penned a note telling readers about Novo’s “final big market cap event of the year” ahead of top-line efficacy results … 

“Final Big Market Cap Event Of Year”: All Eyes On Novo’s CagriSema GLP-1 Results https://t.co/ALZzX5pXoN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 17, 2024

The dismal results led Novo shares to crash as much as 29% in Europe—the most on record.

This wiped out around $120 billion in market capitalization. 

Results also sparked volatility with other weight-loss drug developers in Europe and the US (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

• Shares of smaller weight-loss drug developers also drop in Europe: Zealand Pharma -21%, Gubra -23%

• Medical packaging companies also fall: Gerresheimer -14%, Bachem -6.5%

• In US premarket trading, shares of obesity-drug rivals gain: Eli Lilly +12%, Viking Therapeutics +12% 

Novo bulls received their Christmas gift early: coal.