Chicago PMI Plummets Near COVID Lows As Small Biz/CEO Confidence Soars

MNI’s Chicago PMI survey plunged back near COVID lockdown lows in December, falling to a very contraction-y 36.9 (below the lowest analyst estimate of 40)…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was uniformly ugly…

• Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

• New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

This tumble in survey sentiment fits with the overall slump in ‘soft’ data since Trump was elected…

Source: Bloomberg

…which is odd given the small business and CEO – large business – confidence has exploded higher since his election)…

Source: Bloomberg

Does make one wonder just who the local Fed surveys are asking?

Source: Bloomberg

Partisan PMIs?