Month: December 2024

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan took to the Sunday news shows where he boasted that the White House is surging as many weapons as possible to Ukraine in the final days of the Biden administration.

He explained to ABC News that with just 50 days left in Biden’s term, the White House is busy trying to “get Ukraine all the tools we possibly can to strengthen their position on the battlefield.”

“President Biden directed me to oversee a massive surge in the military equipment that we are delivering to Ukraine so that we have spent every dollar that Congress has appropriated to us by the time that President Biden leaves office,” he said.

Biden and his top officials have long pledged to support Ukraine with arms and funding “for as long as it takes” to defeat Russia.

But Sullivan and other defense officials have of late begun to acknowledge the inevitability of the Zelensky government having to enter negotiations with Moscow. For the time being, Sullivan said Washington aims to “give Ukraine as many tools as possible so that they could go into that negotiation and feel they could achieve the outcome that they would like to see.”

Still, Sullivan sought to reiterate in the ABC appearance that the “key thing” behind potential negotiations to end the war is that Ukraine’s destiny should “not be imposed by outside powers, including the United States.”

Concerning a recent NY Times report that suggested some US officials want to see nuclear weapons given to Ukraine, Sullivan dismissed this as a possibility:

Still, Sullivan debunked a report suggesting that the administration is open to returning nuclear weapons to Ukraine.

“That is not under consideration. No. What we are doing is surging various conventional capacities to Ukraine so that they can effectively defend themselves and take the fight to the Russians, not nuclear capability,” he told Karl.

As for dealing with the incoming Trump administration, Sullivan confirmed there is contact on handing “off the baton” – though Trump has vowed to immediately negotiate an end to the war. 

“I’ve encouraged the Ukrainian team to engage the incoming team as well as to engage all of our allies and partners, because, again, on Jan. 21, the war in Ukraine doesn’t just go away,” Sullivan said.

Mike Waltz, the incoming National Security Advisor, says he has met with Jake Sullivan, the current National Security Advisor, and declares the Trump and Biden administrations are “hand in glove” and “one team” — after a week in which Biden introduced huge escalations in Ukraine pic.twitter.com/4oQRQnqVCT

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) November 24, 2024

He added: “Obviously, the new team will have its own policy, its own approach, and I can’t speak to that, but what I can do is make sure that we put Ukraine in the best possible position when we hand off the baton.”

But the Biden administration’s policy has really only been a recipe for uncontrollable escalation. A ‘massive surge’ of new military equipment assures a prolonging of the war, even as it’s become clear that Ukraine’s real problem is manpower, and as Russian gains are evident in the east.

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

A small group of major oil-producing countries, including the leaders of the OPEC+ alliance – Saudi Arabia and Russia – have blocked a United Nations-backed summit from agreeing on a binding treaty to put limits on the production and use of plastics.

To address plastics pollution, the UN convened a summit in Busan, South Korea, where delegates have been discussing the idea of a plastics treaty since November 25.

The UN has said that the talks would be “essential” to deal with plastics pollution, but these talks and the summit adjourned without a deal being reached.

Countries negotiating a legally binding instrument on plastic pollution concluded their fifth session in the small hours of Monday in Busan, with plans to reconvene in 2025, the UN said, adding that “Despite intense discussions, delegates recognised the need for more time to address divergent views and refine the treaty’s framework.”

Oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have balked at the idea to curb plastics.

“There should be no problem with producing plastics,” Abdulrahman Al Gwaiz, the delegate from Saudi Arabia, said during the meeting’s final plenary session.

“The problem is the pollution, not the plastics themselves,” Bloomberg quoted Abdulrahman Al Gwaiz as saying.

Russia, for its part, argued at the summit that efforts to limit plastic production were motivated by economic reasons.

Petrochemicals, from which plastics are made, are expected to drive global oil demand growth in the coming years and decades, even if demand for road transportation fuels wanes.

That’s why it is no surprise that the biggest petrostates depending on oil revenues, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, aren’t keen on agreeing on limits to plastics production.

Moreover, lobbyists from chemicals and fossil fuel companies were heavily represented at the talks in Busan, according to an analysis by the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL).

As many as 220 fossil fuel and chemical industry lobbyists had registered to participate in the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5) to advance a global plastics treaty. That was the largest single delegation at INC-5, outnumbering even the host Republic of Korea’s 140 representatives, CIEL said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday spoke by phone with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian in talks that focused on the crisis in Syria, at a moment that Turkey-backed jihadists have threatened the central Syrian city of Hama after their shock capture of Aleppo.

“Attention was focused on the escalating situation in the Syrian Arab Republic. The major aggression of terrorist groups and gangs is views as aimed at undermining the sovereignty, political, social and economic stability of the Syrian state,” a Kremlin statement said.

Both Russia and Iran pledged “unconditional support” for Damascus according to Russian state media, but there was also mention of the need to engage Turkey within the framework of the Astana agreement.

“We of course continue to support Bashar al-Assad and we continue contacts at the appropriate levels, we are analyzing the situation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a press briefing. 

President Pezeshkian on the same day held phone talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad, who just within the last days had visited Moscow, at the moment Aleppo was being attacked.

The attack out of Idlib began on November 27 and within a few short days the major northern Syrian city, and long-time industrial hub of the country, came under the control of Al Qaeda splinter group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions. 

An Al Jazeera corresponding reporting from the Syrian-Turkish border has said the HTS advance has slowed after its initial momentum against the Syrian Army.

“Syrian and Russian jets have intensified air attacks in Idlib city and positions in Aleppo as the government of President Bashar al-Assad tries to slow the advance of opposition fighters,” the report says.

“The raids on Monday followed big gains by the opposition over the past few days that has greatly shifted the front line in Syria’s long-running war.” According to more:

“The advances by the Syrian opposition continue on the battlefront, but not as fast as before. The acceleration is down as the diplomatic efforts to discuss the crisis have risen within the last two days,” Koseoglu said.

However, opposition fighters are still on the outskirts of Hama, south of Aleppo. Elsewhere, they have seized most of the city of Tel Rifaat, where Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are calling for a humanitarian corridor to allow Kurds to safely evacuate.

⚡️Syrian warplanes bombed Al Nusra headquarters and operations rooms in Idlib a short while ago. pic.twitter.com/aN26J57oQl

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) December 2, 2024

In areas of northern Aleppo, Kurds reportedly been engaging the Sunni insurgents in firefights. Dozens of Iran-backed Iraqi militia units have been coming from across the border into eastern Syria, ready to support Syrian national forces.

The HTS terrorists and their political backers say they want nothing less than political transition in Syria, or essentially regime change. This has long been the goal of the anti-Assad drive for well over a decade, also generally supported by NATO intelligence services and the Gulf states.

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Pardon?

US stocks rose in shortened trading on Friday, with both the Dow and the S&P500 closing at fresh record highs. Consequently, November marked the best month of the year for the S&P500 as the index finished 5.73% higher, beating February’s 5.17% rise into the silver medal position.

European stocks also rose with the CAC40 up 0.78% and the German DAX up 1.03%. Confidence in Europe was buoyed slightly by a commitment from Marine Le Pen that she wouldn’t bring down Michel Barnier’s government before the weekend over deep disagreements on Barnier’s budget. Despite the stay of execution, the two sides appear to have irreconcilable views over social spending, and its hard to see a situation where Le Pen’s National Rally allows Barnier’s more neoliberal administration to survive into the new year.

Yields on 10-year OATs fell by ~5bps on Friday and French bonds underperformed German Bunds as November CPI data showed a quicker pace of disinflation in France. Nevertheless, the political instability has taken a toll on French borrowing costs as illustrated by outperformance of Greek 10-year bonds on the day and the parity between Greek and French yields (!). Bloomberg reports that some French corporates are now experiencing lower borrowing costs than the national government.

Meanwhile, over in Germany the far-right AfD published a draft policy platform outlining plans to campaign on policies to leave the EU, the Paris Climate Accord and the Euro if the party is successful in forming government at the early election expected in February. The draft policy platform also includes proposals to roll back economic sanctions on Russia and recommission the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, but still needs to be voted on by AfD members in mid-January. The draft platform marks a break from the manifesto published ahead of EU parliament elections in June, which did not include a firm commitment to take Germany out of the EU.

USDJPY sank below the key 150 level on Friday as Tokyo CPI came in hotter than expected on both the headline and ex-fresh food measure. Even the ex-fresh food and energy measure was up 1-tick on the October reading, prompting a slight lift in futures implied probability of a rate hike at the BOJ’s policy meeting on December 19th. The OIS strip currently has a hike of 16.5bps priced in for the December meeting.

On the geopolitics front the swift dismantling of Hezbollah by Israel, and Russia’s preoccupation with its war on Ukraine appears to have come at great cost for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Rebel forces recaptured the country’s second largest city of Aleppo as regime troops were left somewhat stranded by Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah allies and were consequently overwhelmed by the Turkish-backed rebels.

In a situation similar to Yemen, civil war has been raging in Syria for 13 years without attracting a great deal of mainstream interest in Western media. In the case of Yemen, that all changed once the civil war impacted upon freight transits through the Suez Canal, while in Syria the ongoing competition for spheres of influence by Great Powers (Russia, USA, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Israel etc) provides a useful microcosm of the new global paradigm, but only if one cares to look.

Speaking of new paradigms, Australia’s governing Labor Party struck a deal with the left-wing Greens last week to push through proposed reforms of the RBA. The reforms will create a dual board structure at the central bank, splitting responsibility for monetary policy decisions off from the operational and governance oversight of the bank. Australia’s centre-right opposition parties dealt themselves out of negotiations with the government over the reforms due to fears that the government would use the restructure to “sack (fire) and stack” the monetary policy board with political appointments who might be inclined to cut interest rates ahead of the Federal election due by May next year.

The Greens have been vocal critics of the RBA’s tightening of monetary policy and had previously said that they would only support the government’s RBA reforms if the Treasurer invoked never-before-used powers that allow him to override monetary policy decisions. Treasurer Jim Chalmers had planned to abolish that power and another provision that grants the RBA power to direct bank lending activities. Both of those powers might be useful in a world of increased geopolitical competition where free trade is taking a back seat to state aims and industrial policy is becoming de rigeur again.

Finally, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Joe Biden has pardoned his son, Hunter Biden, for federal gun and tax charges despite earlier vows not to intervene. President Biden said that it was clear that Hunter had been “treated differently” by the Justice Department. While this news itself is not immediately market sensitive, Biden’s suggestion that Justice Department prosecutions have not been blind to political considerations in the case of Hunter Biden perhaps risks legitimising President Trump’s claims of unfair prosecution directed against him, and further erosion of confidence in the USA’s institutions of government.

That could certainly have long-term implications for borrowing costs, transmission of monetary policy and a host of other variables.

US airlines are trading slightly higher in the early cash session after new Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint data revealed that Sunday marked the “busiest day ever” at airports nationwide.

Traffic from Reagan National Airport is backed way up onto Rt. 1 as we are in one of the busiest periods of the busiest air travel day for Thanksgiving. I took my own reporter advice & dropped someone off at Crystal City Metro- riding one stop was his only way to make his flight. pic.twitter.com/fRwuXFVabq

— Tom Roussey (@tomroussey7news) December 1, 2024

TSA checkpoint data indicated that officers screened 3,087,393 passengers across airports, a 33% jump from the same day one year ago. 

This morning I’m at @Reagan_Airport for the last busy day of traveling as Thanksgiving weekend comes to an end. So far, no canceled or delayed flights, but the TSA line is getting steadily longer, so give yourself plenty of time to get to your gate! @wusa9 pic.twitter.com/LhA8j7YJjR

— Brianna Hamblin (@BriReports) December 2, 2024

This marks a new daily record.

More details from TSA were shared on X.

BREAKING NEWS: Yesterday, December 1st was the busiest day ever for TSA – our officers screened 3.087M individuals at airports nationwide. If you’re still traveling home from the Thanksgiving holiday, please arrive at the airport early. Contact @AskTSA with any travel questions. pic.twitter.com/lhzGYb2Gw6

— TSA (@TSA) December 2, 2024

In markets, the S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index edged slightly higher on the news. While the index has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, it has risen 57% year-to-date.

AAA projected that nearly 80 million Americans would travel more than 50 miles, either by road or air, ahead of last week’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Beyond soaring air travel demand, consumers also flocked to movie theaters in record numbers.

Is America truly back after the post-Covid funk?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Putin doesn’t hate the dollar and actually wants Russia to once again be able to use it with its partners for reasons of convenience, but it was the US that forced his country to de-dollarize and pioneer alternative financial instruments out of necessity.

Trump threatened over the weekend to impose 100% tariffs on those BRICS members that either help create a new BRICS currency or back any replacements to the dollar. This was in response to reports over the past year of Russia’s BRICS chairmanship about this group’s alleged plans. Influential members of the Alt-Media Community fueled this speculation with their wishful thinking claims, but the last BRICS Summit didn’t achieve anything of tangible significance, which was explained here.

Neither BRICS’ most passionate enthusiasts nor its most zealous critics alike can admit that no new currency is on the horizon and none of its members’ currencies will replace the dollar. While it’s true that they’re using national currencies more frequently, this was only due to the need to work around the US’ unilateral sanctions on Russia that were imposed after its special operation. Russia is still an energy and agricultural superpower so its partners couldn’t comply with them without hurting their interests too.

Putin also declared during early September’s Eastern Economic Forum that “we are not conducting a policy of de-dollarisation. We did not renounce settlements in dollars; they denied us such settlements, and we were simply forced to look for other options; this is it…Why are they acting this way? They probably expected everything to crumble here. This is why they made it impossible for us to use the US dollar.” He then added the following a month later during a meeting with BRICS journalists:

“[The US] ruined relations with Russia, constantly impose sanctions and this, eventually, negatively affects the US and the US dollar. The whole world started contemplating whether US dollars should be used since the United States, for political reasons, restricts the use of the US dollar as a universal international payment unit. Everyone started considering this, and the volume of US dollar use is slowly, in small increments dropping both in settlements and currency reserves.”

Putin elaborated even more on this subject at a press conference after that summit:

“I believe this is a terrible mistake by the US financial authorities, because the strength of the US today is built on the dollar. And yet, they are cutting off the very foundation of their own power. It seemed to me that the dollar is like a sacred cow, something that should never be disturbed. But no, they have taken it into their own hands and essentially cut off its horns, stopped taking care of it, and instead are exploiting it recklessly…We are not engaged in a battle, our proposals are not set against the dollar.”

As can be seen, Putin doesn’t hate the dollar and actually wants Russia to once again be able to use it with its partners for reasons of convenience, but it was the US that forced his country to de-dollarize and pioneer alternative financial instruments out of necessity. This is a far cry from how he’s misportrayed by friends and foes alike, each in pursuit of diametrically opposed ideological agendas, the false impression of which was responsible for Trump’s threats against BRICS after he fell for their claims.

The reality is that while de-dollarization trends exist and have sped up since the US’ unprecedented sanctions against Russia nearly three years ago, they’re nowhere near challenging the dollar’s dominance, and a lot of what’s already been achieved can realistically be reversed or decelerated. All that Trump has to do is lift these selfsame sanctions, though he’s unlikely to do so unilaterally, let alone all at once. He’ll want to receive something from Russia first, but Russia might not be able to provide it.

Therein lies the dilemma that Trump’s found himself in. Incipient de-dollarization trends pose a latent threat to one of the pillars upon which the US’ unipolar hegemony is maintained. It won’t materialize anytime soon, but downplaying or ignoring it could prove disastrous in the long term. At the same time, while the solution of lifting the sanctions is simple enough, it’s politically unfeasible in the current context given domestic and international pressures.

From Trump’s perspective, while the dollar would greatly benefit from this, his personal reputation and his country’s international one could be greatly harmed by the perception of them conceding to Putin’s demand for lifting the sanctions without anything in return. Likewise, the concessions that Trump might demand of him for this could be politically unfeasible for Putin, who isn’t going to pull his troops out of the entirety of the territory that Ukraine claims as its own. A compromise must therefore be reached.

One possibility is that the US lets American investor Stephen P. Lynch purchase the bankrupt Nord Stream project if it soon goes to auction in a Swiss bankruptcy proceeding, the scenario of which was recently analyzed here, which could set into motion the lifting of some US sanctions on Russia. If the US no longer threatens secondary sanctions against those that use the dollar to purchase Russian energy and returns Russia to SWIFT, then China and India would likely revert back to the status quo ante bellum.

They’re the ones that are driving global de-dollarization trends via their massive import of discounted Russian oil, which has been paid for with national currencies that are transferred outside of SWIFT, so incentivizing them to return to “business as usual” would advance American interests. Other sanctions would remain in place and only be lifted in phases per compliance with whatever ceasefire, armistice, or peace deal is ultimately agreed upon, while Russia probably will never see its seized assets again.

It’ll therefore be impossible to ever restore all the trust around the world that was lost in the dollar, thus meaning that the strategic imperative driving de-dollarization trends will remain, but Trump can still decelerate these trends through the proposed means if he has the political will. Gradually lifting some of the sanctions, first on Germany’s Russian energy imports via what might be the US-owned Nord Stream project and then on everyone’s import of Russian energy (using dollars and SWIFT), would go a long way.

If he does nothing, however, then he’ll have to face the growing challenge posed by de-dollarization trends. No BRICS currency is about to be unveiled nor will any members’ currency replace the dollar anytime soon, but the increased use of national currencies and non-SWIFT platforms for conducting trade between countries of the Global Majority will eventually create problems for the dollar. It’s therefore better for the US to rein in this trend, which it can do by lifting the main sanctions on Russia.

While Services surveys are soaring, Manufacturing continues to stagnate (below 50) despite a serial improvement in US Macro ‘hard’ data.

However, November saw a post-Trump resurgence in confidence with S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7 (highest since June) and ISM’s Manufacturing PMI jumped from 46.5 to 48.4…

Source: Bloomberg

While both of the surveys rose notably, they do both remain in contraction (sub-50).

One more silver lining is that while new orders rose, prices actually fell (for now)…

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence noted optimism is on the rise:

“The mood among US manufacturers brightened in November, though any feel-good factor has yet to feed through to higher output on the factory floor.

“Optimism about the year ahead has improved to a level not beaten in two and a half years, buoyed by the lifting of uncertainty seen in the lead up to the election, as well as the prospect of stronger economic growth and greater protectionism against foreign competition under the new Trump administration in 2025.

But, it’s not all coming up roses:

“In contrast, current production levels fell for a fourth straight month in November, dropping at a rate not exceeded for nearly one and a half years. The gap between expected future output and actual current output is now the widest seen for a decade if the pandemic is excluded, underscoring the marked divergence between tough current conditions and the mounting expectation of better times to come.

“Demand conditions need to improve alongside the improvement in confidence to encourage producers to raise production. However, although export sales continue to fall sharply, we note that November’s fall in overall new orders was the smallest seen over the past five months, hinting that the downturn in domestic demand for goods is easing and could help revive the manufacturing sector as we head into 2025.

But, Manufacturers recorded a slower rise in input costs in November, and one that was only modest.

The pace of input price inflation eased for the third month running to the weakest for a year.

On the other hand, the pace of output price inflation quickened slightly and remained slightly above the pre-pandemic average.

“The promise of protectionism has meanwhile led to an increase in input buying by some US producers, as they seek to front-run price hikes on imports from threatened tariffs. One in four companies reporting higher input purchases in November attributed the rise to tariff threats, underlying US manufacturers’ concerns over the inflationary impact of tariffs.”

We shall see if that wave of inflation fears shows its ugly head…

As we start a new month, it is set to be a busier week after the lull of Thanksgiving, with a lot of focus on various important US employment data culminating in payrolls on Friday, a number that could influence the fairly tight December 18th Fed decision. As DB’s Jim Reid notes, the US ISM indices (today and Wednesday), some global PMIs, and the University of Michigan’s consumer survey (Friday) are also due with inflation expectations within the survey fascinating after last month saw the joint highest (3.2%) for the 5-10yr expectations series since 2011. From central banks, speakers include Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde (both Wednesday).

In terms of the US employment data, Deutsche Bank’s forecast for Friday’s payrolls is +215k (consensus +200k) with private payrolls at +185k (consensus +200k). Last month the data printed at +12k and -46k, respectively, with weather and strikes impacting the numbers. For private payrolls it was the first negative print since December 2020 during the winter Covid wave. The DB economist forecast assumes 75k of positive payback split equally between weather and returning strikers. DB and consensus expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%. Prior to this we have JOLTS (tomorrow), ADP (Wednesday) and the employment components of today manufacturing ISM and Wednesday’s services equivalent. JOLTS is always one month behind payrolls (e.g. October) so it will be influenced by the weather disruptions we had that month.

Over in Europe, a number of economic activity indicators are due for the main economies including factory orders (Thursday), industrial production and the trade balance for Germany (both Friday). Industrial production (Thursday) and the trade balance (Friday) are also due for France. Otherwise there will also be November CPI prints in Switzerland (Tuesday) and Sweden (Thursday).

In Asia, Japan’s wages and consumption activity are out on Friday. In Australia, Q3 GDP will be released on Wednesday. Briefly rounding off with geopolitics, South Africa took over the G20 presidency from Italy yesterday and the OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting (online) will be held on Thursday as supply remains in focus.

Also watch France today as the National Assembly starts to review social security within the budget bill. If Barnier uses article 49.3 to push through the bill without a vote, it is feasible a no-confidence motion could come as early as today if the premier doesn’t take into account the demands of the far-left and far-right. Le Pen in particular has been very hawkish over the weekend, suggesting that her extra budget demands need to be met today.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday December 2

• Data: US November ISM index, October construction spending, China November Caixin manufacturing PMI, UK November Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan November monetary base, Italy November manufacturing PMI, budget balance, new car registrations, October unemployment rate, Eurozone October unemployment rate, Canada November manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller and Williams speak

Tuesday December 3

• Data: US October JOLTS report, November total vehicle sales, France October budget balance, Switzerland November CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Kugler and Goolsbee speak, ECB’s Cipollone speaks
• Earnings: Salesforce, Marvell, Okta

Wednesday December 4

• Data: US November ADP report, ISM services, October factory orders, China November Caixin services PMI, UK November official reserves changes, Italy November services PMI, Eurozone October PPI, Canada Q3 labor productivity, November services PMI, Australia Q3 GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Beige book, Chair Powell and Musalem speak, ECB’s President Lagarde, Cipollone and Nagel speak
• Earnings: Synopsis, Dollar Tree, Foot Locker
• Other: OECD economic outlook

Thursday December 5

• Data: US October trade balance, initial jobless claims, UK November new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan October labor cash earnings, household spending, Germany November construction PMI, October factory orders, France October industrial production, Eurozone October retail sales, Canada October international merchandise trade, Sweden November CPI
• Central banks: BoJ’s Nakamura speaks, BoE’s Greene speaks
• Earnings: Dollar General, Kroger, HPE, Lululemon

Friday December 6

• Data: US November jobs report, December University of Michigan survey, October consumer credit, Japan October leading and coincident index, Germany October trade balance, industrial production, France October current account balance, trade balance, Italy October retail sales, Canada November jobs report
• Central banks: Fed’s Bowman, Goolsbee, Hammack and Daly speak

* * *

Focusing just on the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, the ISM services index on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including a speech on the economic outlook by Governor Waller on Monday.

Monday, December 2

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, November final (consensus 49.0, last 48.8)
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, November (GS 47.0, consensus 47.6, last 46.5): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index rebounded in November (+0.5pt to 47.0), reflecting convergence toward the level implied by other manufacturing surveys (GS manufacturing survey tracker at 49.1) and neutral seasonality.
• 03:15 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give the keynote speech at the American Institute for Economic Research Monetary Conference.
• 04:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks to the Queens Chamber of Commerce. Speech text and a Q&A are expected. On November 21, Williams said “Based on the cooling of the labor market in the past few years and the disinflationary progress we have made, it is pretty clear that monetary policy is restrictive today. That is why it was very appropriate to cut the federal-funds rate in our past two meetings. My guess is the fed-funds rate will be lower by the end of next year than it is today. It will depend on the data and the progress we make.”

Tuesday, December 3

• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, October (GS 7,600k, consensus 7,470k, last 7,443k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings rebounded slightly in October (+0.2mn to 7.6mn), reflecting convergence to the level suggested by online job postings.
• 03:45 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will give closing remarks at the Midwest Agriculture Conference. A livestream is expected. On November 15, Goolsbee said “I think the throughline is that as long as we continue making progress toward the 2% inflation goal, over the next 12-18 months, rates will be a lot lower than where they are now. That’s where we need to settle.” He went on to say “We’re not in a hurry to automatically get there. And I think if there’s disagreement over what’s the neutral rate, it does make sense at some point to start slowing how rapidly you’re getting there just to figure out, given the lags in monetary policy, are we at neutral? Are we getting close to neutral?”
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, November (GS 16.2mn, consensus 16.0mn, last 16.0mn)

Wednesday, December 4

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, November (GS +135k, consensus +158k, last +233k)
• 08:45 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will give a keynote address at the College of Central Bankers Symposium. Speech text and a Q&A are expected. On November 14, Musalem said “Further easing toward a neutral policy stance will be appropriate to support employment if inflation continues to converge toward 2%,” but cautioned that “recent information suggests that the risk of inflation ceasing to converge toward 2%, or moving higher, has risen, while the risk of an unwelcome deterioration in the labor market has remained unchanged or possibly fallen.”
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, November final (consensus 57.0, last 57.0)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, November (GS 55.0, consensus 55.5, last 56.0): We estimate that the ISM services index declined 1.0pt to 55.0 in November, reflecting sequential softening in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (-0.3pt to 55.0 in November) and payback for an outsized increase in the supplier deliveries component in the prior month.
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, October (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.5%): Factory orders ex-transportation, October (last +0.1%)
• 02:00 PM Beige Book, December meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the November FOMC meeting period noted that economic activity was roughly unchanged since September, although two districts reported modest growth. Hurricanes Helene and Milton were said to have impacted crops and “prompted pauses in business activity and tourism” in the Southeast. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to the evolution of labor demand and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.

Thursday, December 5

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, October (GS -$77.0bn, consensus -$74.9bn, last -$84.4bn)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 30 (GS 210k, consensus 215k, last 213k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 23 (consensus 1,904k, last 1,907k): We estimate that initial jobless claims edged slightly lower in the week ended November 30th. We would note that initial claims tend to be more volatile in November and December—likely reflecting difficulties with seasonally adjustment around the holidays—and that this week’s reference period coincides with Thanksgiving, which could contribute to additional volatility.

Friday, December 6

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, November (GS +235k, consensus +200k, last +12k); Private payroll employment, November (GS +205k, consensus +200k, last -28k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), November (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Average hourly earnings (YoY), November (GS +3.8%, consensus +3.9%, last +4.0%); Unemployment rate, November (GS 4.1%, consensus 4.1%, last 4.1%); Labor force participation rate, November (GS 62.7%, consensus 62.7%, last 62.6%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 235k in November. Big Data indicators indicated a sequentially stronger pace of job creation, and we estimate that the end of the hurricanes that weighed on October job growth will likely boost November job growth by 50k. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that workers returning from strikes, including those at Boeing, will boost November payroll growth by 37.5k on net. We assume above-trend (albeit moderating) contributions from the recent surge in immigration and catch-up hiring. On the negative side, we estimate that a later-than-usual Thanksgiving and Black Friday could weigh on retail hiring by roughly 15k. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, reflecting a rebound in the labor force participation rate and solid household employment growth. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), which would lower the year-over-year rate to 3.8%, reflecting a drag from the reversing impact of the hurricanes.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December preliminary (GS 72.2, consensus 73.3, last 71.8): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, December preliminary (GS 3.1%, last 3.2%)
• 10:30 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat as part of the Chicago Fed’s Annual Economic Outlook Symposium. A Q&A is expected.
• 12:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give a speech on the economic outlook. Speech text and a Q&A are expected.
• 01:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak in a moderated conversation at an event hosted by Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. A Q&A is expected.

Source: DB, Goldman

When the will of the public starts to work against the designs of the progressive establishment, they lie and they cheat, and they believe they are justified in this behavior because to cheat is a “lesser evil” compared to the rise of right wing movements.  Conservatives, in their minds, are the ultimate evil.

This is how we get fabricated scandals like Russiagate and the Steele Dossier; an accusation driven circus designed to prove Russian interference led to the surprise win by Donald Trump in the 2016 elections. 

It’s perhaps not surprising that the same cabal would use similar tactics in other key elections around the world as a means to thwart any voting majority that goes against them.  This seems to be the case in Romania where Calin Georgescu recently scored a surprise win in the first round of the presidential elections.  

The 62-year-old, referred to as an ‘obscure far-right populist’ by the establishment media, shook the country’s political landscape by clinching the most votes and advancing to the second round to face off against reformist Elena Lasconi of the progressive Save Romania Union party.  He also beat the incumbent Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party, leaving the ruling party for the first time in Romania’s 35-year post-communist history without a candidate in the runoff, set for Dec. 8. 

However, according to a report by Expert Forum, a Bucharest-based think tank, Georgescu’s TikTok account before last week’s vote saw an explosion of engagement, which it said appeared “sudden and artificial, similar to his polling results”.  Expert Forum is a leftist organization which works in collaboration with the European Commission, Council of Europe, World Bank and United Nations Development Programme, along with a multitude of NGOs.

Romanian officials have seized on the Expert Forum report, arguing that Georgescu “benefited from massive exposure due to preferential treatment” granted by TikTok.  They say Russian interference is behind Georgescu’s win.  In other words, they want the public to believe that an artificial TikTok following devised by the Kremlin somehow translated into a massive shift in votes against the political left in Romania. 

Georgescu is a NATO critic and has defended Vladimir Putin as “a man that loves his country”, though he holds that he is not pro-Russia.  A primary message of his campaign has been a push for peace in Ukraine and keeping Romania out of the war.

His positions include supporting Romanian farmers, reducing import dependence, and ramping up local energy and food production. He also wants to establish a “sovereign” distribution model based on participatory democracy in which “Truth, Freedom and Sovereignty are the axes of values” in Romania’s development.

Romania’s constitutional court will decide on Monday whether to annul the now controversial first round of the presidential election, held on Nov. 24. If it does, the court will almost certainly whip up public fears that the country’s widely distrusted establishment parties are trying to manipulate the electoral contest in their favor.

The decision could plunge Romania into one of its most intense crises since the fall of Communism

The prevailing narrative implicit in the interference accusations is that voters are stupid and easily influenced by social media trends that foreign governments can control.  Just as Democrats in the US wanted the public to believe that online “Russian disinformation” tricked voters into supporting Donald Trump, Romanian elites want to inject doubt into the Georgescu win. 

It’s not that the people are fed up with the corruption of the progressive status quo – Rather, the establishment argues that the populace doesn’t make their own decisions and they need protection from themselves.   

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

People responded to Ferrari bragging about its commitment to ‘diversity and inclusivity’ by pointing out that the luxury car manufacturer forces customers to pass a ‘social status’ background check just to be able to buy a Ferrari.

Awkward.

In the wake of the Jaguar farce, when the heritage brand launched a new commercial featuring androgynous models, thereby alienating their core customer base, Ferrari appears to have said, “Hold my beer!”

It started with a post on X in which Ferrari boasted of its, “Commitment to equality, equity, and inclusion by endorsing the new Diversity and Inclusion Charter alongside @F1 and the @fia.”

We proudly reaffirm our commitment to equality, equity, and inclusion by endorsing the new Diversity and Inclusion Charter alongside @F1 and the @fia.
Through encouraging education, breaking biases, and ensuring transparency, we’re creating a more inclusive industry. #Ferrari

— Ferrari (@Ferrari) November 26, 2024

“Through encouraging education, breaking biases, and ensuring transparency, we’re creating a more inclusive industry,” the brand smugly asserted, before getting ratioed into oblivion.

However, that “inclusivity” doesn’t appear to extend to its own potential customers.

As Nick Sortor points out, Ferrari conducts exhaustive background checks on anyone who wants to buy one of their higher end vehicles to “ensure they fit the mold of the brand and its desired image.”

Ferrari has now gone woke, and is preaching “inclusivity.”

And nothing says “inclusivity” like requiring background checks and “social status checks” for ENTIRE FAMILIES before they’re allowed to purchase your cars.

Spare us from your hypocrisy and virtue signaling, @Ferrari. pic.twitter.com/zgYHyPz5LU

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) November 27, 2024

“Family background, social status and additional affiliations,” are also scrutinized before Ferrari will even consider taking your cash.

That doesn’t sound very inclusive!

“Nothing says “inclusivity” like requiring background checks and “social status checks” for ENTIRE FAMILIES before they’re allowed to purchase your cars,” commented Sortor.

As we previously highlighted, Jaguar’s stock price plummeted after their woke rebrand.

Expect Ferrari, in the absence of some seriously rapid back-pedaling, to face the same fate.

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