Under Biden, Producer Prices Rose At Triple The Rate They Did Under Trump

For a change, we get to see producer prices first this month (before tomorrow’s CPI extravaganza). While central bankers are sure this resurgence is a blip – a transitory rebound on the way to 2% – analysts are far less convinced with expectations signaling a big jump in inflation in December data.

Analysts were right on direction but not on magnitude as headline PPI rose 0.2% MoM (+0.4% exp), pulling the YoY PPI up to +3.3% from +3.0% prior (but below the 3.5% exp) – the highest since Feb 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in PPI was driven by the biggest MoM jump in Energy costs since February (but was offset by a big swing in food prices, back to MoM deflation)…

Source: Bloomberg

Core PPI was unchanged MoM, leaving the YoY Core PPI flat at +3.5%…

Source: Bloomberg

With December’s data in the bag, we can take a look at the Biden administration’s disastrophe.

Under Biden, producer prices rose a triple the pace they did under Trump…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, as a nice parting gift for the Trump admin, Biden has launched the toughest sanctions yet on Russian crude imports, sending oil prices soaring and implying a notable jump in underlying inflation (after months of energy driving deflation)…

Source: Bloomberg

Can Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ policies counter this overseas supply threat?

Judging by Small (and Large) business confidence…

Source: Bloomberg

…they seem convinced the economy will be ok.