Month: January 2025

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• Norway’s oil and gas investment is expected to reach a record high in 2025, driven by new exploration activity and increased demand for Norwegian gas.

• While Norway is a leader in renewable energy, it continues to invest heavily in oil and gas production, raising concerns about its climate commitments.

• Norway aims to balance its oil and gas production with decarbonization efforts through electrification and investments in renewable energy projects both domestically and internationally.

After hitting record highs this year, Norway’s oil and gas investment is expected to grow even higher in 2025. Greater development activity on new projects and the cost of inflation have contributed heavily to the increase in Norway’s oil and gas investment in 2024. Norway’s oil and gas investment is expected to total around $22.9 billion this year, marking an all-time high, according to the country’s statistics office. The previous record was $20.4 billion in 2014 when oil prices were very high and companies were still spending heavily on new oil and gas projects. The increase in investment supported new exploration activity, pipeline transportation, and shutdown and removal. 

The Scandinavian oil superpower is expected to continue investing heavily in fossil fuels in the coming years. Oil and gas companies operating in Norway expect to invest an estimated $24.68 billion in 2025, the industry association Offshore Norge announced in December. The group surveyed 14 companies, including Equinor, Aker, Vår Energi, ConocoPhillips, and Shell, representing almost the entirety of the country’s oil and gas output. Companies plan to commence drilling on 45 exploration wells in Norwegian waters in 2025, an increase from 41 this year and the highest level since 2019. 

The increase in new exploration projects reflects the growth in demand for natural gas from Norway, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian oil. Norway is Western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, with an output of more than 4 million bpd, and the government aims to continue increasing production for several decades. 

In December, Vår Energi and Equinor announced they had made a new oil discovery at their Cerisa exploration well near an operational asset in the Barents Sea. The operators estimate the discovery holds between 1.3 and 4.8 million standard cubic meters of recoverable oil equivalent. This marked the fourth find in a row in the region. Alongside previous discoveries in Gjøa North and Ofelia/Kyrre, Cerisa could be tied into the Gjøa field using existing infrastructure in the area. This would provide combined estimated gross recoverable resources of up to 110 MMboe.

In addition to new exploration activities in Norway’s waters, Equinor also announced plans in December for a new 50/50 joint venture with Shell that will see the merging of their U.K. fossil fuel assets to create the largest independent oil and gas producer in the U.K. North Sea. The two companies announced in a joint statement that the new venture will help “sustain domestic oil and gas production and security of energy supply in the U.K.” The statement went on to say, “With the once prolific basin now maturing and production naturally declining, the combination of portfolios and expertise will allow continued economic recovery of this vital U.K. resource.”

Norway has justified its oil and gas expansion by investing in ‘low-carbon’ oil projects, which incorporate decarbonization techniques, as well as through its heavy investment in green energy projects. Norway is now the largest and lowest emissions supplier of oil and gas in Europe. This is largely thanks to the electrification of the country’s upstream operations, using Norway’s extensive hydropower. By 2026, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that over 60 percent of Norwegian production will be electrified.

New energy market intelligence research from Rystad’s Palzor Shenga and Elliot Busby suggests that the electrification of fossil fuel operations can significantly reduce upstream oil and gas emissions. The research shows that over 80 percent of emissions generated from upstream oil and gas production facilities can be cut by using electricity from renewable resources or natural gas that would otherwise be flared.

Shenga, the vice president of upstream research at Rystad, stated, “As the world confronts the pressing issue of climate change, the oil and gas industry is under increasing pressure to minimize its carbon footprint and align its practices with global sustainability objectives. Where it’s possible and economically viable, electrification has great potential to lower the industry’s emissions while maintaining production output.”

Norway has invested heavily in renewable energy in recent years. Its grid runs almost entirely on green energy sources, and it has also funded projects in other parts of the world. For example, in June Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund purchased a $418 million stake in the 573 MW U.K. wind farm Race Bank. The Norwegian Investment Fund for Developing Countries also announced an investment of $19.9 million in three wind farms with a total capacity of 420 MW in South Africa, to be built by EDF Renewables. 

Nonetheless, many question whether Norway should be seen as a climate hero or as a carbon villain. The International Energy Agency has repeatedly said that further fossil fuel exploration is not compatible with its scenarios for reaching net zero emissions by 2050, meaning that Norway’s oil and gas investment is at odds with its aims for a green transition, despite its decarbonization and carbon offset efforts. Yet it seems that Norway wants to have its cake and eat it by continuing to invest heavily in oil and gas while also providing significant funding for decarbonization and a green transition. 

Back on New Year’s Eve, when looking at the global tsunami of resentment and loathing at establishment politics and corrupt politicians that crushed incumbent political parties and politicians around the globe, we eyed the one person that was long overdue to be swept in the tidal wave. We are talking of course about Canada’s prime minister Justin Turdeau (sic)…

The global anti-incumbent wave has yet to claim its final victim https://t.co/nNi6C3gPRo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 31, 2024

… and we are delighted to announce that his time has now also come: citing a source, Reuters reports that Canadian Prime Minister and the world’s most iconic virtue signaling blackface, Justin Trudeau, is “increasingly likely to announce he intends to step down, though he has not made a final decision.”

The source spoke to Reuters after the Globe and Mail reported that Trudeau was expected to announce as early as Monday that he would quit as leader of Canada’s ruling Liberal Party after nine years in office.

Following the news, odds that Trudeau would be out before April surged to 97%

Trudeau’s departure would leave the party without a permanent head at a time when polls show the Liberals will be crushed by the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.

Sources told the Globe and Mail that they did not know definitely when Trudeau would announce his plans to leave but said they expect it would happen before a emergency meeting of Liberal legislators on Wednesday, and could come as soon as today.  An increasing number of Liberal parliamentarians, alarmed by a series of gloomy polls, have publicly urged Trudeau to quit.

It remains unclear whether Trudeau will leave immediately or stay on as prime minister until a new Liberal leader is selected, the Globe and Mail report added, although it is unclear how he hopes to continue after confirming defeat.

Trudeau, who was recently mocked by Trump who proposed that he become governor of the “51st state of Canada”, took over as Liberal leader in 2013 when the party was in deep trouble and had been reduced to third place in the House of Commons for the first time. If he does resign, it would prompt fresh calls for a quick election to put in place a stable government able to deal with the administration of President-elect Donald Trump for the next four years.

The prime minister has discussed with Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc whether he would be willing to step in as interim leader and prime minister, one source told the newspaper, adding that this would be unworkable if LeBlanc plans to run for the leadership.

Trudeau, 53, had been able to fend off Liberal legislators worried about the polls and the loss of safe seats in two special elections.But calls for him to step aside have grown since December, when Trudeau tried to demote Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, one of his closest cabinet allies, after she pushed back against his proposals for more spending.

Freeland quit instead and penned a letter accusing Trudeau of “political gimmicks” rather than focusing on what was best for the country.

“The country could face instability, notably from an economic threat in the potential of a 25% US tariff on Canadian imports from the incoming administration,” said a recent letter sent to the prime minister by Kody Blois, who leads a group of Liberal members from the four easternmost provinces. “Simply put, time is of the essence,” Blois said, adding that it’s “not tenable for you to remain as the leader.”

Trudeau propelled the Liberals to power in 2015 promising “sunny ways” and a progressive agenda that promoted the rights of women and a promise to fight climate change. But the everyday realities of governing gradually wore him down and like many Western leaders, the need to deal with the effects of the pandemic ate up much of his time.

Although Ottawa spent heavily to protect consumers and businesses, racking up record budget deficits, this provided little protection from public anger as prices soared.

A botched immigration policy led to hundreds of thousands of arrivals, straining an already overheated housing market.

The Canadian currency strengthened as much as 0.4% to C$1.4388 per dollar after the Globe report before paring those gains. The currency has been trading near its weakest level since March 2020 and has lost more than 7% against the greenback in the past year.

“Traders may be buying the loonie on the view that the worst is over for Canadian politics after all the recent uncertainty,” said Ken Cheung, a strategist at Mizuho Bank.

Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

There are plenty of theories of what brought down Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 on Christmas Day. The plane, which was traveling from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny in the Russian region of Chechnya, ran into trouble over Russia and made an emergency landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan, in which 38 of the 67 people on board were killed.

The black boxes from the aircraft are currently being analyzed at Brazil’s Center for Investigation and Prevention of Aeronautical Accidents, but what’s already clear is that some have already made up their minds that Russia is responsible. Media in the US and Europe were of course quick to point the finger. That’s unsurprising; they blame Moscow for every stubbed toe and spilt coffee.

What is surprising is that the president of Azerbaijan — whose country has maintained strong ties with Russia despite the with-us-or-against-us Western pressure in recent years — is on the same page as the Western media.

That marks a major shift. Regardless of whether the alleged downing of the plane was part of a new stage of provocative pressure against Moscow, an accident with Russian air defense missiles, or was some sharp-winged birds, it does appear to be doing real damage to the Azerbaijani-Russian relationship.

And that could have major implications for the South Caucasus where the pivot state of Azerbaijan is the most important transport and logistics hub in the region.

Let’s take a look at what the Azerbaijan president is saying about the incident and examine what it might mean for the region.

Aliyev’s Statements

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev was once described in a Wikileaks US diplomatic cable as an unpredictable hothead similar to Sonny Corleone, but he has been anything but in recent years. While calmly playing both sides, he’s managed to retake Nagorno-Karabakh (whatever one may think about the method), become a major gas supplier to the EU, and maintain strong ties with Moscow and workable relationships with other players in the region.

His comments about the plane crash therefore raise eyebrows.

Before the black boxes are analyzed, Aliyev is putting the blame on Russia, which he says accidentally shot down the plane, continued to use electronic warfare against it afterwards, and then tried to cover it up. He might end up being right, but these are still bold proclamations coming from the president who just recently stood by Azerbaijan’s alliance with Russia. Here are the relevant quotes from his Dec. 29 interview with Azerbaijan Television at Heydar Aliyev (Ilham’s father) International Airport:

The facts indicate that the Azerbaijani civilian plane was damaged from the outside over Russian territory, near the city of Grozny, and almost lost control. We also know that means of electronic warfare put our plane out of control. This was the first impact on the plane. At the same time, as a result of fire from the ground, the tail of the plane was also severely damaged…

The fact that the fuselage is riddled with holes indicates that the theory of the plane hitting a flock of birds, which was brought up by someone, is completely removed from the agenda. It is possible that when the plane was damaged, when it was hit, the pilot could have perceived it as a collision with birds. Because it would probably never have occurred to anyone that our plane might be fired at from the ground while flying over a country friendly to us. Unfortunately, however, some circles in Russia preferred to put forward this theory. Another regrettable and surprising moment for us was that official Russian agencies put forward theories about the explosion of a gas cylinder on board the plane. In other words, this clearly showed that the Russian side wanted to cover up the issue, which, of course, is unbecoming of anyone. Of course, our plane was hit by accident. Of course, there can be no talk of a deliberate act of terror here. Therefore, admitting guilt, apologizing in a timely manner to Azerbaijan, which is considered a friendly country, and informing the public about this – these were measures and steps that should have been taken. Unfortunately, for the first three days, we heard nothing from Russia except for some absurd theories…

Some believe that the plane was deliberately sent off course by ground handling services in Grozny because the plane was already out of control, and there was a high probability it would fall into the sea. If this had been the case, the cover-up attempts would have been successful, and the so-called bird theory would have been presented as the most likely version…we can clearly say today that the plane was shot down by Russia. This is a fact, and no-one can deny this fact. Again, we are not saying that this was done intentionally, but it was done.

Strong accusations. Notably Aliyev does not once mention Ukrainian drones, which were being launched against civilian infrastructure in the region at the time of the plane downing. That might help explain how Russia accidentally shot at the plane — if that’s indeed what happened. It’s unclear why Aliyev doesn’t mention the possibility that shrapnel from a Ukrainian drone could have caused the damage to the plane.

While Aliyev no doubt has public opinion to worry about after such an awful incident, is it not odd that even if his theory is 100 percent correct, he wouldn’t at least try to soften the blow against his ally Russia and present Ukraine as at least partially responsible? Instead Kiev is largely getting a free pass as public anger is directed at Moscow.

For what it’s worth, Aliyev’s theory of what happened is the same as US officials quoted in American media. Both could be right, although Western media no doubt have an interest in using the incident to drive a wedge between Baku and Moscow.

The question is whether Aliyev is on board with that potential outcome? Could he be looking to play an Erdogan role where he utilizes leverage over Moscow in a similar way that Ankara has?

Viewing Aliyev’s Comments Against Backdrop of Recent Events in South Caucasus 

Aliyev’s being so quick to forcefully blame Russia is a bit of a Sonny Corleone reaction, especially for someone who’s played his cards carefully in recent years. Could recent events in the Caucasus help explain his shift? Let’s examine the terrain:

Russian influence has come under increasing pressure there since the start of the Ukraine war.

Georgia looks to have fought off a color revolution attempt for now. Again it’s important to note the ruling party in Georgia is not anti-US or EU, it simply wants to maintain good ties with Russia and not be turned into another Ukraine.

In Armenia it’s another story. It continues to move out of Russian orbit politically if not economically. A US military officer is now the main adviser to Armenia’s defense ministry, the French are training Armenian units and signing weapons deals, and India has replaced Russia as Armenia’s top arms supplier. Yerevan is also seeking security guarantees from Brussels and Washington.

Moscow is observing the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process from the sidelines (it used to lead the talks), although it still seemingly exerts quite a bit of influence over Baku. The two sides are nearing the conclusion of bilateral negotiations on a peace agreement that could have major implications for connectivity at the Eurasian crossroads. Simultaneously, Türkiye and Armenia are working to normalize relations, a process that Ankara ties to Armenia’s talks with Baku.

The US has weaseled its way into these processes via Armenia and is looking to exploit the situation to weaken Iran and Russia.

There are hang ups to deals between Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Armenia, including Baku’s demand that Armenia remove an implicit claim on Nagorno-Karabakh in its constitution.

The most challenging issue in Armenian-Azerbaijani talks, however, is the establishment of transport links and specifically who will control them.

The Battle for Control Over Logistics Corridors in the South Caucasus

The so-called Zangezur Corridor – which would stretch parallel to Armenia’s border with Iran and link Azerbaijan to its Türkiye-bordered exclave of Nakhchivan — is the missing link in what would be the shortest land transport route between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. And key to many involved parties is not only the shorter distance but the fact that it’s one of the few routes that entirely bypasses Russia.

The corridor would also be a key intersection point of other burgeoning North–South and East–West routes.

The Middle Corridor, for example, which passes from China through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye extending to Europe could see major upgrades with the opening of Zangezur.

And so outside involvement and pressure steadily builds on Armenia and Azerbaijan .

The main issue holding up talks between the two is Point 9 of the trilateral statement signed between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia in 2020 following the Second Karabakh War, which reads:

All economic and transport links in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the safety of transport communication between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with a view to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Control over transport communication shall be exercised by the Border Guard Service bodies of the FSS of Russia.

Azerbaijan continues to insist upon this point, while Armenia no longer wants Russian border guards present, and instead argues for solutions like Russia monitoring the corridor from afar. How exactly that would be done isn’t yet clear.

The Armenian prime minister is making statements about entrusting Zangezur’s security to foreign private forces. These ideas are coming as Armenia removes Russian border guards.

On Wednesday at Armenia’s request, the Russians withdrew from the only official Armenian-Iranian crossing, which followed  the departure of Russian border guards from Yerevan’s Zvartnots Airport in July,. Since 1992 Armenia’s borders with Türkiye and Iran have been the responsibility of Russian troops.

Meanwhile, the number of EU guards on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border keeps expanding.

Both Azerbaijan and Russia are critical of the EU mission creep, and Baku continues to insist that Yerevan agree to the deployment of Russian border guards along the Zangezur Corridor.

Could that be changing?

Any agreement between Baku and Yerevan (and its Western backers) that excludes Russia would be a major power play from the Turkic axis and a perceived win for the US-Israel axis as it would sideline Russia and Iran.

How the latter two would respond remains to be seen, but what’s clear is how the Middle East conflicts and Ukraine war are bleeding into the Caucasus. It’s easy to see how it could become part of a deal that helps temporarily ease the tensions among the conquering parties of Syria by continuing to focus on areas on overlapping interests or get dragged in nonetheless.

Here’s a brief look at key players positions in this theater of The Great Game:

Iran

Pretty straightforward:

Regional peace, security and stability is not merely a preference, but a pillar of our national security.

Any threat from North, South, East, or West to territorial integrity of our neighbors or redrawing of boundaries is totally unacceptable and a red line for Iran.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) September 5, 2024

From Iran’s perspective the Zangezur Corridor is a nightmare. Neocon think tanks in Washington have long dreamed of using Azerbaijan to destabilize Iran — as they have for weakening Russian influence in the South Caucasus. Ethnic Azeri citizens who are estimated to make up 15 percent of the Iranian population.

Tehran’s concerns about Azerbaijan are further aggravated by Tel Aviv’s support to Azerbaijan (more on that below). Tehran also faces the following economic fallout from the Zangezur Corridor, according to Security & Defence Quarterly::

• Azerbaijan used to pay 15 percent of the 350 million cubic metres of gas sent to Nakhchivan through Iran as a transit fee. With the opening of the new corridor, Iran may lose this profit.

• An agreement on sale of gas was signed between Türkiye and Iran in 1996. Based on that agreement, Türkiye has been buying gas from Iran for years. While Türkiye pays Iran US$490 for a thousand cubic metres of gas, it can buy the same amount from Azerbaijan for US$335.

• If a gas pipeline is built from Azerbaijan to Türkiye through this corridor, Iran’s loss of gas revenue may be huge.

• The planned gas pipeline project from Turkmenistan through Iran to Türkiye then to Europe was frozen in 2017 because of financial disagreements. Turkmenistan can now deliver this gas to Europe via Azerbaijan.

• The importance of Iran’s pipeline to Armenia has also decreased.

The Strategic Council of Foreign Relations in Tehran, whose director is Iran’s former minister of foreign affairs Kamal Kharazi, condemned the construction of the Zangezur corridor, indicating that the corridor has been introduced as NATO’s “Turan corridor,” a project ostensibly supported by Israel and NATO, which aims to foment ethnic unrest in the areas of Iran inhabited by Turks. As per the aforementioned Council, NATO’s Turan corridor is supposed to directly bring NATO onto the northern border of Iran, the southern border of Russia, and western China and lay the groundwork for their disintegration.

Moscow and Tehran are reportedly set to sign their strategic partnership in the coming weeks, which will alter the calculus of all involved parties.

Türkiye

Türkiye has been the driving force behind many of the Caucasus cooperation projects in recent years, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, and the Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic Pipelines connecting Azerbaijan to Europe via Türkiye.

Erdogan and friends view the Zangezur Corridor as bigger than all that and a key piece in the country’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power. Here’s what Ankara envisions:

• A gas pipeline from Baku to Türkiye through the corridor.

• Increased leverage in negotiating gas prices with Iran.

• Resurrecting the Trans-Caspian pipeline and transporting that gas through Türkiye to Europe (A pipeline through a Nakhchivan corridor could help boost supplies to Europe to upwards of 31 bcm, although that would be years away, and ironically, due to its heavy investments in the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector, one of the bigger beneficiaries of any Brussels-Baku deals could be Russia. Azerbaijan is even importing more Russian gas itself in order to meet its obligations to Europe.

• A logistics corridor stretching to China.

• A railroad line from Türkiye to Nakhchivan could make Türkiye a regional transit hub in addition to an energy one.

The US-Israel-EU

The US wants to sideline Russia and Iran. The EU does what the US wants.

Therefore, the West (including Türkiye) tries to ensure the flow of resources of the South Caucasus and Central Asia to Europe bypassing Russia and Iran and reducing their influence, as well as that of Beijing. As always, the US permanent state is in lockstep with Israel, and it’s important to note that despite the surface friction between Ankara and Tel Aviv, in the South Caucasus their interests once again align.

Israel supports pan-Turkic ambitions through the Caucasus because Tel Aviv views Turkish influence as preferable to that of Iran — even if it potentially sets “Greater Türkiye” and “Greater Israel” up for a future clash.

Israel too continues to exert influence in Azerbaijan through its role as the country’s main weapon supplier, including air defense systems, all the latest in drones and surveillance tech, as well as cooperation in cybersecurity. Israel is also Azerbaijan’s leading oil importer, a trade which continues to be partially facilitated by Türkiye despite the country’s ban on trade with Israel — or what Erdogan calls a “Zionist terrorist organization.”

China

Beijing wants to expand its influence and open or expand more trade routes. China has signed strategic partnership agreements with Tbilisi and Baku and is pursuing major infrastructure projects, such as that port in Georgia, which causes so much heartburn in the US.

Russia

Russia wants to maintain a dominant role in the Caucasus, including in trade corridors, which become even more important due to Western isolation efforts. It was long in Moscow’s interests to have a simmering conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan as that allowed it to play peace broker and maintain a presence, but it is increasingly being pushed out of these processes.

It still has a military base in Armenia, as well as peacekeepers, and border control, although their numbers are declining at Armenia’s request, and the military base could be next.

Armenia

The corridor would be a boon for Armenia — as long as it doesn’t alienate Russia, which it largely depends on economically. From the Emirates Policy Center: 

Russia has also kept Armenia in its orbit through maintaining economic ties. The trade turnover between the two countries increased from $2.6 billion in 2021 to $7.3 billion in 2023. That has significantly ensured the growth of Armenia’s GDP by 12.6% in 2022 and by 8.3% in 2023. Armenia declares that it is not interested in breaking relations with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), affirming plans to actively participate in the organization despite the fact that  Armenia has frozen its membership in the CSTO and is reducing its activity in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Moreover, the EAEU-Iran free trade agreement boosts Armenia’s role as the only EAEU member bordering Iran. Close economic ties also give Russia leverage, as many Armenian producers depend on its market, allowing Moscow to impose restrictive measures if needed. Additionally, EAEU membership prevents Armenia from signing an Association Agreement with the EU, creating a long-term economic deterrent against turning to the West.

Despite the economic reliance on Russia, Armenia has largely been infiltrated by American interests and could likely be made to go along with a deal that fits with the US-Israel’s goals.

The key is Azerbaijan, which much like Türkiye effectively plays both sides. It enjoys ties with Russia primarily in energy and logistics while upping its natural gas deliveries to the EU. It has a strong weapons-for-energy relationship with Israel that it uses to help balance its relationship with Iran.

Aliyev’s reaction to the downing of flight J2-8243 could point to a willingness to take some more chances with Russia. Like Erdogan, Aliyev might reasonably believe that Russia needs it at this time and is not in position to take a strong stance or retaliate. Moscow must cooperate with Baku on trade connectivity due to the West’s attempts to isolate it, and that’s a reliance Azerbaijan might now be keen to exploit.

Washington has long tried to resurrect animosity between Baku and Moscow. The US ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mark Libby, who previously worked in Baghdad and as deputy chief of mission and chargé d’affaires at the US Mission to the EU among other posts, was hastily dispatched to the country in December of 2023. One of his first actions was to visit the Alley of Martyrs dedicated to those killed by the Soviet Army during Black January 1990 (these old USSR wounds are gifts that just keep giving for the US, e.g.,“The Holodomor Industry” in Ukraine).  Where that obvious ploy failed, the newer wound caused by Russia’s alleged downing of the flight could succeed.

In conclusion, it’s still too early to answer cui bono, but if actions accompany Aliyev’s accusations then we could be looking at another win for the US-Israel axis.

Seattle Public Schools is seeing an alarming rise in the number of its students experiencing homelessness. 

As of October, the district reported 2,235 students experiencing homelessness since the school year began, a nearly 20% increase from last year’s 30% rise, KUOW/NPR reported. 

Homelessness has reached record levels nationwide, according to a recent HUD report. In Washington state, over 41,000 students experienced homelessness during the 2023-24 school year, a nearly 15% increase.

Jenny Allen, a McKinney-Vento support worker in Seattle, said rising costs and limited affordable housing are straining families, while the district has seen a rise in immigrants and refugees, particularly from South America.

The KUOW/NPR report said that at Dunlap Elementary, Rogers Greene, an eight-year veteran supporting unhoused students, now assists a growing number of families fleeing conflicts in countries like Ukraine and Afghanistan.

“I can’t imagine. You’re just dropped somewhere and then figure it out — figure out the language, figure out how you’re going to live, where you’re going to live, how you’re going to eat. It’s survival. So it’s important for us to have those connections, relationships, and work through the language barrier,” he said. 

He continued: “They may not know of those services, those resources that they can access, so part of my job is to educate. But what I want to get to with families is a point of empowerment — like they’ve accessed a resource, they’ve used it successfully, they know of some organization where they’ve been helped, and they can share that with someone else or another family.”

Greene supports immigrant and refugee families facing language barriers and fear of seeking help, the report said. 

At Dunlap Elementary, he provides essentials like coats and backpacks, supervises lunches, and creates a safe space for students. Unhoused students face significant academic challenges, but Greene highlights their resilience, noting how many quickly adapt and thrive.

Authored by Michael Wing via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Joe Buffalo Child’s earliest boyhood memories are of cold, barren landscapes, wolves howling outside a warm tent, and emerald green northern lights—miraculous coloured curtains dancing between Earth and the stars. For Buffalo Child, raised in the traditional Dene lifestyle by his grandparents in the Northwest Territories, it was like a dream.

Lately, posts about those dancing aurora borealis are all over social media; prominent geomagnetic storms last fall—and now again this new year—caused the whole online buzz. But for Buffalo Child, who founded Yellowknife-based aurora-chasing tour company North Star Adventures, the hype doesn’t mean much.

In N.W.T., where he once snapped a shot of a “dragon aurora,” the spectral lights are omnipresent, he tells The Epoch Times.

When clients ask what it’s like living with the lights always on, he answers: “It is as common as you breathing air. What’s it like for you to breathe air?”

“As a young boy, it was always with us,” he said. “The aurora was always here with our people since time immemorial. So it’s nothing really new for us.”

Speaking of his Dene heritage, Buffalo Child’s voice has an element of awe. He’s all too eager to share his cherished culture with the visitors who arrive at his tour office seven days a week.

He tells them the Dene are indigenous Native Americans who share the same ancestry as the Navaho in the southern United States and speak the same language. The Navaho migrated south after crossing the land bridge some 30,000 years ago. The Dene stayed up north.

Dene spirituality is tightly wed to auroras; they believe their ancestors reside there.

As CEO of North Star Adventures, Buffalo Child, 60, hosts global travellers from as far away as South Korea and Taiwan (he hires Korean and Chinese interpreters to assist). Guests arrive like pilgrims eager to check off lifelong bucket lists.

The business is booming, but has seen better days. Rising from the ashes of near-ruin after the COVID lockdowns, they’re rebuilding. Now, Buffalo Child is always checking the weather and greeting new groups to take along on Arctic adventures. Drives through winter wonderlands are topped off climactically with northern lights that rarely disappoint.

Buffalo Child says he always wants to make his guests’ sojourn soulful and build a real connection.

He tells stories of the grandparents who raised him who’ve now passed on and whom he sees in the afterlife dancing in the auroras. They say they are happy and will meet again, he tells his guests.

“You can hear [our guests] weeping,” he said, adding that their trip is often “a lifelong dream.” “Our tour’s not just something like an attraction—it’s something more profound and more special.”

Auroras come from the east—or rather, seem to. Actually, the Earth’s rotation carries us through them as they stand impervious to geographic location, dancing hundreds of kilometres over the Earth’s magnetic polar regions.

Buffalo Child’s team, nevertheless, heads east to intercept them.

A former civil engineering student, Buffalo Child knows every last dirt road and turnoff in the area like the back of his hand. His savvy for scouting the most sublime spots is his edge over the competition.

The drive eastward often leads to Pontoon Lake where dark skies free of light pollution and shorelines clear of obstructions are ideal for viewing. It was here several months ago that Buffalo Child captured one of his most impressive shots as tour participants gazed skyward in perfect stillness, entranced by a ribbon of red and yellow lights across the shore.

“Watching the aurora and the stars—and the Aurora reflect off the water—it was an incredible experience,” he said.

Since Buffalo Child started North Star Adventures in 2007, the territory’s auroras have attracted stars like Carrie Fisher and placed Yellowknife under the spotlight. “Good Morning America” featured him last January and marvelled at the uncanny ability of digital censors in smartphones that can drink in and display colours the human eye is incapable of seeing.

Even in the pitch of night, Buffalo Child, together with host Ginger Zee, captured a silhouette all ablaze in gorgeous greens.

The auroras being lifelong fellow travellers, Buffalo Child says it’s impossible for him to choose a “favourite” sighting. But of the tens of thousands he’s captured on camera, he says the “dragon aurora” that appeared over a spiny ridge in 2019 was unforgettable.

“I was able to capture the body and the head, and you can see the eyes and the teeth of the dragon’s head. It’s incredible,” he said. “It’s kind of the whole body of the dragon coming down to Earth.”

Buffalo Child’s close proximity to auroras naturally led him to grasp the science behind the lights: Charged particles ejected from the sun are captured by the Earth’s magnetosphere, and those particles then gather to form “aurora ovals” over both the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions. These particles display various colours, their specific hue depending on their altitude.

When Buffalo Child hears people say auroras are best viewed when it’s cold outside, he disagrees.

“Our weather systems on Earth are zero to five kilometres above the surface of the earth,” he says. “[With auroras], you’re talking about 600 to 1,000 [kilometres], it’s got nothing to do with the weather.”

But scientific theories take a backseat to belief when he’s sharing memories with his clients en route to witness auroras. He returns to his childhood: “Life was beautiful with my grandparents,” he says. “Our world was the land and the Great Slave Lake.”

Looking up, he sees the grace of the lights that connect him with his grandparents and ancestors. “That’s what I look at when I see the aurora.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is grabbing as many free meals as he can on the way out the door – visiting South Korea, Japan, and France on what will most likely be his last diplomatic trip before the incoming Trump administration takes office in just over two weeks.

On Friday, the State Department announced that Blinken would begin a five-day trip to the three countries on Saturday, during which he aims to ‘reaffirm US alliances’ in the face of regional challenges.

In South Korea, Blinken and senior government officials will discuss “critical cooperation” in addressing global challenges, and other such word salads. According to the department, Blinken will focus on how the two countries “can strengthen key efforts to promote a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” and strengthen trilateral efforts with Japan.

As the Epoch Times notes further, Blinken’s visit will occur amid political turmoil in South Korea following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol over his short-lived martial law declaration last month. Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok has assumed the role of acting president, the second person to do so after Prime Minister Han Duck-soo was impeached.

The department stated that Blinken will hold talks with senior Japanese government officials during his visit to Tokyo to review “the tremendous progress the U.S.–Japan alliance has made over the past few years.”

During the talks, Blinken will underscore the importance of their alliance in addressing regional and global issues, while also discussing ways to build on the momentum of trilateral cooperation with South Korea.

Lastly, Blinken will travel to France to discuss with senior French officials challenges in Europe, particularly in Ukraine, as well as the rising tensions in the Middle East, according to the department.

The announcement was made a day after the State Department approved the potential sale of advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles and related equipment to Japan, which is valued at an estimated $3.64 billion.

The Biden administration has sought to bolster alliances with Japan and South Korea amid concerns over China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and North Korea’s missile threats.

The growing military ties between North Korea and Russia have also raised alarms as North Korea reportedly sent thousands of troops to fight alongside Russian troops in Ukraine.

Last week, the United States and Japan unveiled new guidelines for extended deterrence, citing an “increasingly severe strategic and nuclear threat environment” that reflects heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific, where China, Russia, and North Korea have taken steps to modernize their arsenals and project power.

Details of the new guidelines have not been disclosed. Both the United States and Japan said the document emphasizes enhancing strategic messaging to ensure adversaries clearly understand the alliance’s resolve and capabilities. The measures also include bolstering U.S. extended deterrence with Japan’s defense advancements, such as enhanced missile defense systems and readiness to respond to contingencies.

Tom Ozimek contributed to this report.

Authored by Lawrence Williams via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

American health insurance seems to frustrate everyone. Patients complain that it’s expensive and complicated. Providers say it buries them in paperwork and can negatively affect patient care.

Poll after poll indicates that most people simply don’t trust their health insurance provider or the health care system itself. Fully 70 percent of the country thinks American health care has major problems or is in a state of crisis. Consumer satisfaction is at a 24-year low.

Frustration with health insurers may have turned to rage in a young man accused of killing a UnitedHealthcare executive in New York City on Dec. 4. The alleged killer appears to have been driven by an idea soon echoed on social media, that the woeful tale of American health care is a story with a villain, and the villain is health insurers.

Yet identifying a villain here is no simple matter.

The American health payment system is a ramshackle structure comprising public and private insurance plans offered by a host of providers across multiple states. Over many decades, the system has been layered with more legislative patches than the roof on your grandfather’s barn.

Despite the good intentions of lawmakers, regulators, countless health care workers, and insurance companies, health insurance remains expensive and confusing for the 92 percent of Americans who have it and for the 8 percent who don’t.

Despite its problems, many experts believe the health payment system can be improved. Some want to level the ground and build a new system from scratch. Others advocate refinements to make health insurance less expensive and more transparent. Any solution will require cooperation among a host of key players, including insurance companies, health care providers, state governments, and that most unpredictable of all institutions, the United States Congress.

Here’s an overview of the symptoms affecting the health care payment industry, some root causes, and cures suggested by industry analysts.

But first, here are the primary ways people get health insurance in the United States.

The Payers

Employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) is the most common way Americans get health care coverage. This includes self-funded plans, in which the employer acts as the insurer, and commercial health insurance purchased by a company for its employees. More than 178 million people had ESI in 2023, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Self-purchased health insurance is obtained by individuals directly from an insurance company, sometimes with the aid of an insurance agent or through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace. The Marketplace offers premium discounts in the form of tax credits based on the buyer’s income. Nearly 34 million people bought their own health insurance in 2023. Of those, about 13.3 million used the Marketplace.

Medicare is a federal entitlement program that provides health insurance for Americans age 65 and above, people with a disability, and those having end-stage renal disease or ALS. Medicare covered about 63 million people in 2023.

Medicaid is a government program that provides health insurance and other benefits to low-income Americans. Medicaid is funded by both the federal government and the states. It is administered by the states within guidelines provided by the federal government. Coverage can vary from state to state. Medicaid covered about 63 million people in 2023.

Also in 2023, about 9 million people were covered by TRICARE, a program for U.S. servicemembers, their dependents, and retirees administered by the U.S. Department of Defense. Another 3 million people were covered by the Veterans Administration and related programs.

About 26 million people had no health insurance in 2023.

Symptoms

The most frequent complaint about health insurance is the cost. About half of Marketplace (55 percent) and ESI users (46 percent) gave their health insurance a negative rating based on its premiums in a 2023 survey by KFF. That’s roughly double the dissatisfaction rate for Medicare (27 percent) and Medicaid beneficiaries (10 percent).

The cost of ESI for a hypothetical family of four in 2024 was $32,066, according to the actuarial firm Milliman. Of that total, about 58 percent would typically be paid by the employer.

Cost is a major complaint for employers too, according to Orriel Richardson, an executive director at Morgan Health, a business unit of JPMorgan Chase aimed at improving health care.

“The growing refrain within small and mid-sized businesses is that providing health insurance for their employees is becoming unsustainable,” Richardson told The Epoch Times.

Another pain point with health insurance is the complexity of the plans. Consumers say this makes their coverage difficult to use and often seems unfair. Providers say the requirements are burdensome to them and make it more difficult to provide good health care.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans, 65 percent, said they don’t think health insurance providers are transparent about their coverage, according to a 2024 poll conducted by physician network MDVIP and Ipsos. Nearly the same number, 62 percent, find aspects of their health plan like co-insurance payments and deductibles hard to understand.

A 2023 KFF report showed that most people, 58 percent, had trouble using their insurance within the preceding year. Denied claims, provider network issues, and pre-authorization were commonly cited problems. About half of those who experienced problems were unable to find a satisfactory resolution.

Insurance companies generally do not publish their claim denial rates, though the data analysis firm Experian Health reported in 2024 based on provider surveys that claim denials are increasing. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said at least 10 percent of their claims were denied by the insurer. Some reported denial rates above 15 percent.

In 2021, just 0.2 percent of in-network denied claims were appealed by Marketplace enrollees, according to an analysis by KFF. The appeals were unsuccessful 59 percent of the time.

Providers are frustrated too. The administrative demands required by insurance companies are a particular pain point. Experian found that 65 percent of providers said meeting the insurers’ claim-submission requirements is harder now than before the pandemic.

More than 80 percent of nurses said the administrative demands imposed by insurance companies delay patient care, and about 75 percent said insurance policies reduce the quality of care according to a 2023 survey by the American Hospital Association. More than 80 percent of physicians said insurance policies hamper their ability to practice medicine.

Insurance companies are aware of the problems.

Andrew Witty, CEO of UnitedHealth Group, said as much in an op-ed in The New York Times just days after one of his executives was gunned down in New York.

“We know the health system does not work as well as it should, and we understand people’s frustrations with it. No one would design a system like the one we have. And no one did. It’s a patchwork built over decades,” Witty wrote on Dec. 13.

Causes

Witty touched on a root problem commonly mentioned by health insurance experts. The industry did not develop purely as a market response to a need as many other businesses did. It was patched together over a hundred years or so through a combination of business and government interventions.

“We are working with a healthcare system that was never truly designed for the purpose of making people healthier and having them live their optimal lives. It was always reactive to different things,” Richardson told attendees at a 2023 event sponsored by the Alliance for Health Policy.

ESI was started in the early 1900s by employers looking to ensure a reliable workforce. The Affordable Care Act now makes ESI mandatory for many employers. Medicare and Medicaid were created in 1965 to provide health coverage for uninsured Americans, though coverage has widened over time to provide access for more people.

The Employee Retirement and Income Security Act of 1974 was created to regulate employee pensions and includes a provision prohibiting states from regulating ESI plans, according to KFF. The Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act was added in 1986 to impose minimum standards for emergency care on hospitals accepting Medicare patients. COBRA, HIPAA, the Affordable Care Act, and the No Surprises Act also impose conditions on health insurance and medical services providers.

Read the rest here…

The United States is currently dealing with conflicts in multiple hot spots from Eastern Europe to Gaza to dealing with a collapsed Syrian state and continued standoff with Iran over its nuclear program.

But the Biden administration regrets nothing – so says Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a major end of term interview given to the NY Times and published this weekend. Among the more interesting pieces of new information from the interview is Blinken’s direct admission that Washington was covertly shipping heavy weapons to Ukraine even months before the Russian invasion of February 2022.

“We made sure that well before [Russia’s ‘special military operation’] happened, starting in September and then again in December, we quietly got a lot of weapons to Ukraine,” he said in the interview published Saturday. “Things like Stingers, Javelins.”

The Kremlin at the time cited such covert transfers, which were perhaps an ‘open secret’, as justification for the invasion based on ‘demilitarizing’ Ukraine and keeping NATO military infrastructure out. Moscow had issued many warnings over its ‘red lines’ in the weeks and months leading up to the war.

Below is the full section from the NY Times interview transcript where Blinken boasts of the pre-invasion transfers:

QUESTION:  You made two early strategic decisions on Ukraine.  The first – because of that fear of direct conflict – was to restrict Ukraine’s use of American weapons within Russia.  The second was to support Ukraine’s military offensive without a parallel diplomatic track to try and end the conflict.  How do you look back on those decisions now?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  So first, if you look at the trajectory of the conflict, because we saw it coming, we were able to make sure that not only were we prepared, and allies and partners were prepared, but that Ukraine was prepared.  We made sure that well before the Russian aggression happened, starting in September – the Russian aggression happened in February.  Starting in September and then again in December, we quietly got a lot of weapons to Ukraine to make sure that they had in hand what they needed to defended themselves – things like Stingers, Javelins that they could use that were instrumental in preventing Russia from taking Kyiv, from rolling over the country, erasing it from the map, and indeed pushing the Russians back.

Blinken claims elsewhere in the interview that the Biden White House kept diplomacy going the whole time, and tried to engage Moscow, but explains that this basically involved keeping the Western allies and backers of Kiev unified and on the same track.

Interestingly when asked about whether its time to end the war, Biden’s top diplomat basically dodged the question…

QUESTION:  Do you think it’s time to end the war, though?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  These are decisions for Ukrainians to make.  They have to decide where their future is and how they want to get there.  Where the line is drawn on the map, at this point, I don’t think is fundamentally going to change very much.  The real question is:  Can we make sure that Ukraine is a position to move forward strongly?

QUESTION:  You mean use – that the areas that Russia controls you feel —

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  In —

QUESTION:  — will have to be ceded?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  Ceded is not the question.  The question is – the line as a practical matter in the foreseeable future is unlikely to move very much.  Ukraine’s claim on that territory will always be there.  And the question is:  Will they find ways – with the support of others – to regain territory that’s been lost?

Blinken in the above essentially gives his view that no… it is not time to end the war, despite the majority of the war-weary publics in Europe and the US thinking the opposite. There’s some evidence that much or most of the common Ukrainian populace wants it to end as fast as possible as well.

Ultimately, with the world now on the brink of WW3, it’s clear this White House regrets nothing, which even the title of the interview piece strongly suggests: Antony Blinken Insists He and Biden Made the Right Calls. But we think history will not look kindly.

Authored by Julie Kelly via Declassified with Julie Kelly,

Four years after what the FBI describes as an act of domestic terror–the protest at the Capitol on January 6, 2021–federal authorities have not yet solved the most consequential crime of that day: the presence of two explosive devices within blocks of the U.S. Capitol.

A report issued today by Representatives Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky), chairmen of House subcommittees examining the events of January 6 and the work of the January 6 Select Committee, details how the FBI investigation into the so-called pipe bomber went cold by early 2021 despite dedicating significant resources into finding the suspect and initially identifying several “persons of interest.”

The FBI originally claimed an individual wearing a hoodie planted the devices near the headquarters of the Republican National Committee and outside the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee on January 5, 2021 between the hours of 7:30 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. The devices were not discovered until 17 hours later, coincidentally, around the same time the Joint Session of Congress convened at 1:00 p.m. on January 6 to debate the results of the 2020 presidential election. A woman doing her laundry found a pipe bomb in an alleyway near the RNC headquarters at around 12:40 p.m.; a plainclothes Capitol Police officer discovered a similar device outside the DNC headquarters at 1:05 p.m.

The latter situation posed an extreme danger to incoming Vice President Kamala Harris, who left the Capitol at 11:25 a.m. and inexplicably went to the DNC, where she remained until around 1:15 p.m. As I have reported, several officers including numerous Secret Service agents and a bomb-sniffing canine failed to detect the device sitting just steps away from the building’s entrance.

News of the devices prompted the evacuation of nearby buildings and set off the first wave of panic that afternoon. Some top law enforcement officials including former U.S. Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund believe the devices were a diversionary tactic. “[While] law enforcement has not identified the suspect responsible for planting both pipe bombs, the explosive devices played a critical role in how the events of that day unfolded. Whether intended to or not, both pipe bombs acted as diversions, forcing law enforcement to draw resources away from the Capitol,” the report states. The first exterior breach of Capitol grounds occurred at 12:53 p.m.

But no one has been arrested despite a $500,000 reward offered by the FBI. Further, the failure to locate the J6 pipe bomber doesn’t add up considering the extensive investigative tools still being used by the FBI to track down and arrest J6 protesters, a caseload now approaching 1,600 individuals.

Footdragging, Stonewalling, and Non-Interest by J6 Truth Seekers

Not only did the trail go cold, either intentionally or organically, the same political leaders and government officials who promised to expose the “truth” about the events of January 6 oddly are uninterested in the pipe bomb threat and not cooperating with Republicans in their separate attempts to find the bomber. The report discloses extensive stonewalling by federal and local agencies including the FBI, the ATF, the U.S. Secret Service, and the Metropolitan (DC) Police Department related to House Republicans’ requests for documents and interviews to help better understand the failed pipe bomb investigation.

“[The] FBI has failed to provide any responsive documents. On December 12, 2023, FBI Deputy Assistant Director Matthew Foder briefed the Committee on the status of the FBI’s pipe bomb investigation. Deputy Assistant Director Foder’s briefing failed to satisfy even the Committee’s most basic informational needs and dealt exclusively with information already in the public domain.”

The former head of the Washington FBI field office, Steven D’Antuono, who led the pipe bomb investigation for nearly two years, also appears to have misled Congress by claiming some of the cell phone files obtained by the FBI were “corrupted,” which impeded their investigation. But according to today’s report, “the major cell carriers confirmed that they did not provide corrupted data to the FBI and that the FBI never notified them of any issues with accessing the cellular data.”

Further, despite promises to fully investigate every aspect of January 6, the January 6 Select Committee ignored what represented the biggest threat to public safety and the safety of top elected officials including Harris and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

“A thorough review of almost three terabytes of data turned over by the Select Committee yielded shockingly few results regarding the pipe bombs— emphasizing how the Select Committee failed to thoroughly investigate the security and operational failures surrounding the events of January 6,” the report reveals. Rep. Bennie Thompson, chair of the now defunct committee, told Massie in 2023 that his committee did not look into the pipe bomb matter. The committee’s final 845-page report devoted less than three pages to the pipe bomb incidents and relegated it to the appendix.

Even after the devices were detected on Jan 6, security perimeters established around both locations insufficiently protected the public, commuters, and nearby Congressional buildings, the report confirms:

On January 6, 2021, the actions of federal law enforcement before, during, and after the discovery of the pipe bombs at the RNC and DNC constituted a series of egregious safety and security failures. First, federal law enforcement failed to conduct a thorough security sweep of the DNC, resulting in the delayed discovery of one of the pipe bombs. As a result of the USSS’s decision to not use critical explosive detection capabilities, the USSS failed to identify the device and allowed civilians and the Vice President-elect to pass within feet of the DNC pipe bomb. Second, after learning of the pipe bombs, federal law enforcement failed to properly secure and maintain perimeters around the pipe bombs, allowed commuter trains to transit within close proximity of the pipe bomb, and failed to prevent contamination of the crime scene. Lastly, federal law enforcement risked the safety and security of protectees during the evacuation from the Capitol. Despite repeated attempts to notify law enforcement stationed along the perimeter, numerous civilians, law enforcement officers, congressional leadership, and even trains passed by the pipe bombs, needlessly risking human life.

A motorcade carrying Pelosi drove past the device after it was detected but before it was detonated. “Prior to Speaker Pelosi’s motorcade driving by the DNC pipe bomb, federal law enforcement had allowed more than fifteen vehicles to drive past the DNC pipe bomb despite repeated calls over the radio for law enforcement units to stop all traffic passing by the explosive device. The breakdown in command and control around the DNC pipe bomb and the failure to correct the breaches of the security perimeter culminated in law enforcement risking the safety of congressional leadership.”

Plenty of Leads, No Answers

The subcommittees’ report describes a full throttle investigation into the pipe bombs early on.

In the immediate aftermath of January 6, the FBI’s case team worked aggressively to cultivate and pursue leads toward apprehending the pipe bomb suspect. As of January 2021, the FBI’s investigation consisted of over fifty investigators, including special agents, data analysts, Task Force officers, and support staff. Of those more than fifty investigators, thirty were special agents assigned to the case. The investigation also comprised of a range of investigative support teams such as the Cellular Analysis Survey Team, the Computer Analysis Response Team, and the Digital Imaging and Video Recovery Team. As a result, by April 2021, the FBI had collected over 105,000,000 data points in connection with the investigation.

In February 2021, the FBI identified 186 phone numbers of interest; 36 numbers were assigned to agents for interviews, 98 required additional investigative steps. Fifty-one were categorized as “not needing further action” because the phones “belong[ed] to law enforcement officers or persons on the exclusion list.”

By using another sophisticated investigative technique–tracking advertising data–the FBI case team, according to the report, “identified one [individual] whose movements matched the suspect’s movements as outlined by the video the FBI released tracking the suspect’s whereabouts.” But the result of that “significant lead…remains unclear,” the report states.

More Unanswered Questions

How is it possible the pipe bomber remains at large given the extensive resources first expended by the FBI and at their disposal to this day? Why did the J6 Select Committee avoid looking into the threat, particularly since it posed a mortal danger to both the incoming vice president and the Speaker of the House, who created the committee? Why did Kamala Harris never discuss her near-assassination attempt on the campaign trail? Why did D’Antuono mislead Congress about the condition of cell phone data? Why has the media stopped covering the pipe bombs?

The good news for now is that House Republicans are not backing down. The key to permanently unraveling the entire Jan 6 narrative is tied to the mystery pipe bomber—and once that missing puzzle piece is found, the public likely will find more shocking revelations.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Messy But Manageable

Last weekend we went with 2025 Will Be Messy. We discussed that subject and the implications on Bloomberg Radio/YouTube (30-minute mark) to kick off the year on Thursday. Unfortunately, Academy also had to publish a SITREP – Terrorist Attack in New Orleans.

We did get some volatility as stocks sold off into the New Year. While assets tried to bounce on the first day of trading, that momentum faded. However, at least stocks (and Bitcoin) performed well on Friday (which, technically, is the last official day of the Santa rally, which the Grinch did seem to hack).

What was noticeable about Friday was how well stocks did after the Speaker was picked on the first vote. While there were some delays as “cloakroom” deals were hammered out (which brought back memories of Hamilton’s “The Room Where it Happens”), the whole thing went relatively smoothly.

Markets were prepared for more of a “mess” (than what actually occurred), and rightfully did well as optimism that the positive things for the economy (and markets) will get done.

The expected deluge of corporate bond issuance got off to a fast start with 10 issuers coming to market on Thursday! (Academy was an underwriter on 5 of those deals).

There are a few important things to watch this coming week, which should move markets in a meaningful way.

Treasury Yields

We raised our near-term target on 10s to 4.75%. With the 10-year and 30-year auctions this week, that should put some pressure on Treasuries. With a very heavy corporate calendar, there should be rate hedging and buyers who prefer corporates to Treasuries (which will also tend to push yields higher). Finally, nothing about this administration (despite D.O.G.E.) points to it being fiscally conservative, so that too will weigh on bonds (yields drifted higher as the Speaker vote proceeded relatively smoothly).

In terms of “only” 1.5 cuts being priced in for 2025, that is starting to seem low, but we are not really prepared to argue against it too heavily one way or the other (basically our higher yield call at the longer end is primarily linked to further steepening of the yield curve).

Jobs versus Inflation

This is Jobs Week (nowhere near as entertaining as Shark Week). We get JOLTs, ADP, and NFP. Consensus is that the reports will be mediocre at best (160k estimate on NFP headline). If anything, the “whisper” number seems even lower. While that is completely in line with our take on the economy, there are two main reasons why we are not prepared to bet on the jobs data being weak enough to really move the needle for the Fed:

• The Household number (used for the Unemployment Rate) has been significantly lower than the Establishment number, so there is some reasonable probability that the data will catch up, keeping the unemployment rate well under control.
• We have argued that the seasonal adjustments, while “normalizing,” are still off due to including Covid and are not adapting rapidly enough to the importance of weather in the South versus the North. Just like last year, we believe that there is a bias in the seasonal adjustments that can create a “beat” in the jobs data.

While some have argued that the Fed may have acted politically at their last meeting, we are NOT in that camp (A Tough Powell Who Didn’t Take the Bait). We are far from convinced that the economy is robust or that the job’s data reflects reality (we think that it has consistently overstated the strength of the labor market – which the ongoing downward revisions seem to support). But the Fed is somewhat forced to work with the official data.

But the main reason why we were calling for the Fed to do what they did is concern about inflation.

We highlighted the almost comedic healthcare “deflation” stats in the CPI data! The Fed uses those numbers, but that is possibly the single biggest reason why no one in the real world (or at least the world where you need to have health insurance) is as happy about CPI coming closer to 2% as the economists would have you believe.

With respect to whatever is going to happen on the tariff front, companies have been purchasing goods ahead of the potential risk. We do think that the risk is now higher than the market believes, primarily because China did not buy the agricultural goods they promised to buy last time, and President Trump will not let that happen again on his watch. The logical reaction by companies and the underestimated risk of tough trade talks will add to inflation pressure.

Video games often include “Easter Eggs.” Little hidden things left by the developers for the gamers to find. Well, if President Biden wanted to leave an “Easter Egg” for President Trump, the temporary dock worker’s deal ending on January 15th seems like a potentially nasty one. There was a time when people were concerned about the impact that the strike would have on the economy and inflation. That has largely gone away, but with the use of automation being a contentious point, it could come back. With Musk (and some other members of the Trump team) being so clearly for automation, robotics, etc., this could get messy. Also, it did seem that the Steel Workers union was happy about the U.S. Steel deal getting shot down. While a completely different issue, I cannot help thinking that it should be viewed as at least a small warning from the unions and could impact things like the dock workers.

The inability to get inflation closer to 2% is likely to remain a theme (the Atlanta GDPNow estimate for PCE has been back above 3% for the last month).

We are looking for data and narratives that:

• Inflation is not only alive, but it is also possibly rising again.
• Jobs, while not robust, are not weak enough to compel the Fed to cut.

I fully expect that in the coming months, we will be calling for more rate cuts than the market has priced in, but it is premature to move in that direction.

Bottom Line

With Bitcoin as a useful signal, we expect “risk on” type days when it looks like the Trump administration will be able to accomplish a lot, and “risk off” days when it looks messier.

If we are correct on rates, then stocks will likely have trouble continuing the rally that actually started late into Thursday’s trading.

We are watching not just the inflows into option-linked ETF strategies, but also the dominance of leveraged long ETFs. We’ve seen reports that the leveraged long ETFs have 100 times the AUM of leveraged short ETFs. We haven’t verified this, though we’ve been harping on the single stock leveraged ETFs theme for a while. It is true that TQQQ (3x long QQQ) has $25 billion of AUM versus $2 billion in SQQQ (3x short QQQ). These leveraged ETFs contain significant drags for their holders (they have to buy more shares at the end of up days and sell shares at the end of down days) and have the potential to significantly amplify larger moves.

Between those categories of ETFs and the ongoing dominance of short-dated options (0-days-to expiration, etc.), we expect to get moves that are larger than they should be based on the data. Not a great market structure issue in a world where we expect messiness (if not chaos).

We will be following up with our take on how the geopolitical landscape is likely to influence markets, with a focus away from the “Big 3” (China, Russia/Ukraine, and the Middle East). Thanks again for all the support in 2024! We hope that 2025 is great for everyone and we are looking forward to working together in 2025!