Old Man Winter Points Crosshairs On US Mid-Atlantic

Old Man Winter Points Crosshairs On US Mid-Atlantic

The latest forecast model guidance shows a possible winter storm or wintery mix late Sunday night into Monday for the Mid-Atlantic region.

“Quick morning update to my snow potential map for the Jan 5-6 storm – this is still subject to some changes, but confidence is gradually increasing on the following corridor,” meteorologist Tomer Burg wrote on X. 

 Mike’s Weather Page wrote in a separate X post, “Things stay stable through the weekend for the SE. A Monday AM cold front line incoming here. Cold air behind for next week with the next round towards the following weekend. That’s the south and/or east snow maker question mark.”

“The Northeast Direct Snow Train will be making stops in DC, Baltimore, Philly and NY City on Monday,” WBAL TV (Baltimore-based) meteorologist Tony Pann wrote on X. 

More on the incoming storm from meteorologist Ryan Maue.

Bloomberg data shows that the average temperatures in the Lower 48 are set to trend under a 30-year mean for the next two weeks. What happened to global warming?

By the way…

Latest reporting on weather and energy markets:

Old Man Winter is inbound. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/02/2025 – 13:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/UpRkcFh Tyler Durden

Why A US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Is Critical To Fending Off China

Why A US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Is Critical To Fending Off China

Authored by Zac Townsend via CoinDesk.com,

Finance is increasingly a weapon of war. United States policymakers and our allies focus too narrowly on macroeconomic tools like sanctions and promoting the dollar as a reserve currency when the modern front is evolving. Today, the real battles are being waged on smartphones and in the global currency markets.

China is waging a multi-decade plan to displace the United States’ greatest asset: the dollar. The dollar is critical to the United States’ economic and geopolitical power as the global reserve currency. Without it, our influence would weaken, and our debt would become a bigger problem. This is precisely what the Chinese Communist Party and the Kremlin want.

China and Russia have shed billions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasury holdings while growing their stockpiles of gold. Our sanctions, designed to separate countries from the “Western” economic system, are no longer enough of a deterrent for those who can control financial activity within their borders and project their power outward.

Authoritarian adversaries — including China, Iran and Russia — are actively building parallel cross-border economic systems that will pull into their orbits not only neighboring countries but also our allies who trade heavily with them.

For example, over half of businesses in Japan accept Alipay, while more than one-third accept WeChat Pay. This distribution gives two Chinese firms unprecedented visibility into the individual market transactions of Japanese consumers and businesses. It could allow China to disrupt Japan’s economy should tensions escalate, such as in a potential conflict over Taiwan.

How the U.S. can respond

China sees financial technology and cryptocurrency as tools to extend its financial power and surveillance globally. The United States must respond in two ways: export our financial technology and systems worldwide and embrace bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset instead of stifling innovation.

Lawmakers and politicians on both sides of the aisle, most notably President-elect Donald Trump, recognize the power of holding bitcoin on the nation’s balance sheet as a hedge against inflation. This direction would also strengthen U.S. resilience against economic challenges posed by China’s financial strategies.

The Federal Reserve, like many central banks, holds a diverse portfolio of reserve assets. As of 2024, this includes approximately $35 billion in foreign currencies and $11 billion in gold stock. These holdings demonstrate America’s economic strength and provide liquidity during financial stress. However, in our rapidly digitizing world, the absence of a native digital asset in this portfolio is becoming increasingly conspicuous.

With its global reach and growing adoption, bitcoin is the ideal candidate to fill this gap. Often called “digital gold,” bitcoin is a scarce commodity. The U.S. is the largest nation-state holder of bitcoin, having seized 210,000 coins from illegal actors. This gives the U.S. a first-mover advantage and could secure our economic future.

Critics may argue that bitcoin’s volatility makes it unsuitable as a reserve asset. However, this volatility will likely decrease as adoption grows and the market matures. In 2021, El Salvador recognized bitcoin as legal tender and began purchasing it as a treasury reserve asset. They have seen a 100% increase in value and have no intention of selling.

A multi-front war

The U.S. must recognize we are already in a multi-front war with China. One of these fronts is financial services, and crypto is a weapon in our arsenal. Losing this battle means global financial services and individual financial activity would be dominated by adversarial states focused on control, surveillance and dominance — and a continued attack on our currency.

Trump understands this, telling Bloomberg in July, “If we don’t do it, China is going to pick [bitcoin] up.”

Projecting American financial power also requires the government to empower, enable and encourage our private economic sector to interact with contested economies throughout the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Expanding the use of our payment systems, banks and dollars — even where it’s controversial — is essential.

Right now, our adversaries are winning because we aren’t even playing. They are exporting their systems, institutions and surveillance tools worldwide. Meanwhile, we’ve done little as TikTok, a serious threat to our national security, captivates an entire generation of Americans. We must do the same with financial technology because no disruption would be greater to our enemies.

The U.S. should more explicitly weaponize financial technology and crypto. For example, we should endorse decentralized financial technology that enables citizens of hostile governments like Iran to use smartphones to access USD-based stablecoins and payment services, in order to begin separating their economic activity from their government’s control. At its core, power is about control — not just of police or national security but of resources and economies.

The world is at a financial crossroads. The question isn’t whether digital currencies will shape the future but how we will adapt to this new reality. The U.S. can shape this future by embracing bitcoin as a reserve asset. The time for bold action is now, and the benefits for global financial stability and innovation could be profound.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/02/2025 – 12:45

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“Another ESG Rat Jumps Ship”: Morgan Stanley Quits Net-Zero Banking Alliance Ahead Of Trump 2.0

“Another ESG Rat Jumps Ship”: Morgan Stanley Quits Net-Zero Banking Alliance Ahead Of Trump 2.0

The US could be in the very early stages of recovery after a decade of toxic ESG and Net Zero initiatives, widely criticized as one of the biggest financial and ideological blunders in a generation. Wall Street firms increasingly recognize that the “woke capitalism” era in corporate America will come to an abrupt end under Trump 2.0. 

Bloomberg reports that Morgan Stanley is the latest Wall Street firm to abandon the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), a group of banks worldwide that push woke climate initiatives. 

Morgan Stanley’s exit comes after Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs left NZBA early last month. 

“Another ESG rat jumps ship,” Steve Milloy, a lawyer who served under Trump 1.0, wrote on X.

According to Bloomberg, “NZBA coordinates its work with the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, which is backed by the United Nations. GFANZ said earlier this week it’s making changes that will “redouble its efforts to mobilize private capital” and support the energy transition.” 

On X, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas wrote, “Wall Street is quitting en masse the Net-Zero Banking Alliance.” 

Data from Preqin Pro shows ESG fundraising peaked in 2022 and has since plunged into the first half of 2024. Wall Street discovered that ESG and woke capitalism don’t translate into solid returns. The green bubble has popped.

In November, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and ten other states sued BlackRock, State Street Corporation, and Vanguard Group “for conspiring to artificially constrict the market for coal through anticompetitive trade practices.” 

Paxton wrote in a statement:

“Texas will not tolerate the illegal weaponization of the financial industry in service of a destructive, politicized ‘environmental’ agenda. BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street formed a cartel to rig the coal market, artificially reduce the energy supply, and raise prices. Their conspiracy has harmed American energy production and hurt consumers. This is a stunning violation of State and federal law.”

After billions of dollars were poured “straight into the dumpster” of risky climate investments, as one X user explained…

We have highlighted that nuclear is the only sustainable clean energy solution.

Everything else is just a scheme to siphon taxpayer dollars.

In other words, a giant political shift is underway. So, about BlackRock’s Larry Fink… 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/02/2025 – 12:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/5Ysr6Wv Tyler Durden

Republicans Have The Slimmest House Majority Since 1931, What It Means

Republicans Have The Slimmest House Majority Since 1931, What It Means

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

If Republicans cannot elect a Speaker, Senator Chuck Grassley could be the next President.

The Next Speaker

If no one quickly wins the gavel, certification of President-elect Trump’s victory could be delayed. Rules then would make Senator Chuck Grassley the president.

That is possible, but highly unlikely in practice, explained below.

However, at least one Republican is a confirmed no for Johnson. A second no would do Johnson in.

How Mike Johnson Could Lose the House Speaker Vote

The Wall Street Journal reports How Mike Johnson Could Lose the House Speaker Vote.

What happens on Jan. 3, and how does the speaker vote work?

Under the Constitution, newly elected and returning House members gather in the Capitol. First they have to elect a speaker, which requires a majority of those who vote for a particular person—abstaining or voting “present” doesn’t count in the calculations. The declared candidate for Republicans, who will hold a narrow majority in the new session, is incumbent Johnson. Democrats back Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.).

If no one receives a majority of votes cast for a named candidate, more ballots will be held until someone wins a majority. When Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) ran for speaker in January 2023, he wasn’t able to secure the gavel until the early hours of the morning on Jan. 7, after four grueling days of voting and 15 ballots.

One Republican—Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.)—has said he would oppose Johnson, and several others have said they are undecided. All it would take to cost Johnson the speakership is for one more House Republican to vote for a different person, assuming all Democrats oppose him. But it is unclear whether any other candidate could win a majority.

It took three weeks of failed votes for other candidates before House Republicans elected Johnson in the fall of 2023.

What happens if no speaker is quickly elected?

Without a speaker, members can’t be sworn in, and the House can’t organize itself. A law dating back to the first Congress in 1789 requires the election of the speaker to precede any other business, including the swearing in of new members, the formation of committees and the passage of any legislation. The failure to elect a speaker could also delay the certification of Trump’s Electoral College victory, which by law is scheduled for Jan. 6.

Who are the key players in the speaker vote on Jan. 3?

Trump: Trump endorsed Johnson for speaker, boosting his prospects. But the president-elect’s support isn’t a guarantee that Johnson can lock up the needed votes. Johnson has been calling skeptical Republican lawmakers, trying to tamp down their concerns about his leadership.

Massie: Massie said he respects Trump but wasn’t swayed by his endorsement of Johnson. As long as Massie is determined to vote for someone else for speaker, Johnson can afford to lose only one more vote. This math gives all other members of the Republican conference enormous leverage to make demands of Johnson in exchange for their votes.

Rep. Andy Harris (R., Md.): Harris, who chairs the conservative House Freedom Caucus, has said he is uncertain of how he will vote. Harris has concerns about government spending, and he wants Johnson to commit to structural changes, including an overhaul of the amendment process, and giving priority to internal GOP debate before bills are introduced on the floor. He told The Wall Street Journal that a “significant number” of House Freedom Caucus members are similarly unconvinced.

Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas): Roy is a prominent member of the House Freedom Caucus, who, like Massie, endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump in the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Roy helped lead opposition against a stopgap spending bill that Johnson negotiated with Democrats in December. He also opposed a slimmed-down version of the bill that included a debt-ceiling increase Trump wanted. He hasn’t said how he will vote for speaker.

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R., Ind.): Spartz has said she is undecided on whether to vote for Johnson. On Monday, she called for the next speaker to create temporary structures for the House to initiate government spending audits. Johnson said he recently spoke with her.

How could Trump’s certification on Jan. 6 as president be affected by a delay?

If no speaker is elected by Jan. 6, Congress likely won’t be able to ratify Trump’s election or the election of Vice President-elect JD Vance. If there is still no speaker, no functioning House, and no certification by Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, then the new GOP-controlled Senate’s president pro-tempore, 91-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa), would become president, according to the presidential line of succession.

There is no chance of Grassley becoming president. Republicans could easily elect a caretaker Speaker long enough ratify Trump.

However, I have to ask again, what precisely is the Republican mandate, if it only takes two willing to stand up to Trump to derail legislation.

One might wonder Why Does Trump Support Johnson for Speaker of the House?

Q1 of the Day: Why does Trump like Johnson?
Q1 Answer: Trump now believes Johnson will do whatever Trump says.

Team DOGE (Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy) are willing to go along with Johnson because Trump is. Otherwise, they would both be trashing Johnson.

Johnson vs McCarthy

In practice, Mike Johnson has proven to be much worse than Kevin McCarthy. I called that in advance.

Q2 of the Day: Seriously, is there no now one better than Johnson (who would take the job)?
Q2 Answer: What’s the definition of better?

If better means someone who will suck up to Trump no matter what Trump wants, then perhaps there is no one better.

Otherwise, pull a random Republican name out of the hat and you would likely be no worse off and perhaps much better off.

And so, here we are.

It is going to be very hard to pass legislation without support from some Democrats and that alone likely means bigger budget deficits.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/02/2025 – 12:05

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Apple Offers Rare iPhone Discounts In China Amid Intensifying Huawei Competition

Apple Offers Rare iPhone Discounts In China Amid Intensifying Huawei Competition

Apple struggled with selling iPhones in China in 2024 as rivals like Huawei and Xiaomi took away market share from the world’s most valuable company. As a result, Tim Cook has been pressured to offer “rare discounts” on iPhones in the world’s largest handset market. 

Reuters reports that discounts of up to 500 yuan ($68.50) are being offered in a four-day promotion for the flagship iPhone 16 Pro, running from Saturday through next Tuesday.

The four-day promotion, running from Jan. 4-7, applies to several iPhone models when purchased using specific payment methods, according to its website. The flagship iPhone 16 Pro with a starting price of 7,999 yuan and the iPhone 16 Pro Max with a starting price of 9,999 yuan will see the highest discount of 500 yuan. The iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus will receive a 400 yuan reduction. -RTRS

Apple’s sales in China have been under pressure with increasing domestic competition. For a brief moment, Apple fell out of the top five smartphone vendors in the world’s second-largest economy in the second quarter of 2024. It did recover in the third quarter, yet sales did decline year-on-year.

Meanwhile, Huawei’s sales surged as the Chinese tech firm introduced new ‘made-in-China‘ smartphones featuring a new operating system and domestically produced chips to power the devices. Strong patriotic fervor in the country has also led to consumers ditching iPhones for domestic ones.  

Apple’s earnings in the fourth quarter beat revenue estimates, but sales in China missed and dropped year over year. China weakness is certainly showing up in earnings, hence why Cook has been forced to offer “rare discounts” on iPhones. 

Reuters added:

The Apple promotion also includes discounts of 200 to 300 yuan on older iPhone models, as well as other categories of products such as MacBook laptops and iPad tablets. Customers must use designated payment methods including WeChat Pay or Alipay to qualify for the discounts.

Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, described Apple’s China unit as “a disappointment in ’24, full stop.” 

It’s not just China. The whole AI-powered iPhone supercycle theme was a total bust elsewhere.  

Cook’s troubles could multiply as Trump’s tariff war with China complicates matters for the world’s most valuable company. 

Goldman’s Allen Chang and Verena Jeng recently noted that an increasing number of Chinese handset brands are releasing AI smartphones for the mid-end market for as low as $168.

We asked: “How Will Apple Compete With $168 AI Smartphones From China?”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/02/2025 – 11:40

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Court Upholds $7.8 Million Verdict For Transit Workers Fired For Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine

Court Upholds $7.8 Million Verdict For Transit Workers Fired For Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge in California has rejected an effort by Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) to overturn a jury verdict that awarded $7.8 million to six former employees who were fired for refusing to comply with the agency’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate on religious grounds.

A woman receives a COVID-19 vaccine in Los Angeles on March 25, 2021. Lucy Nicholson/Reuters

In a Dec. 30 order, Judge William A. Alsup of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California acknowledged minor “imperfections” in the jury trial—including flawed instructions to the jurors—and determined they were not severe enough to invalidate the jury’s October decision requiring BART to pay each of the six former workers between $1.2 million and $1.5 million.

Alsup denied BART’s post-trial motions to overturn the verdict and seek a new trial, saying that the agency failed to demonstrate that accommodating the employees’ religious objections would have posed an undue hardship.

Simply put, on the instructions given and evidence received, a reasonable jury could have found that BART had not carried its burden of proving its affirmative defense,” Alsup wrote, referring to the fact that, in order to prevail in the case, BART had to prove that granting accommodations such as masking, testing, or remote work in lieu of vaccination would have imposed an undue burden on the agency.

BART’s defense relied heavily on expert testimony to argue that no alternative measures were as effective as vaccination against COVID-19, with the judge noting that the agency claimed it had presented “‘unrebutted’ scientific expert testimony” to that effect. However, Alsup noted that the jury was entitled to weigh the credibility of the experts, particularly given their financial ties to the agency.

“In light of the large sums paid to the experts by BART, our jury was entitled to find that they were ‘bought and paid for,’ were merely parroting the ‘company line,’ and were not credible in light of their bias, common sense, and other evidence,” the judge wrote. “An expert witness is like any other witness, and it is up to the jury to decide how much weight their testimony deserves.”

Alsup also highlighted inconsistencies in BART’s evidence. For instance, he pointed to one BART supervisor’s admission under cross-examination that pre-vaccine precautions such as masking and social distancing had been effective, contradicting the testimony of BART’s own experts. Additionally, BART failed to present clear documentation of the evidence it relied upon when implementing its vaccine mandate.

Curiously, BART presented zero evidence of the information actually relied upon by the BART board in adopting its mandatory vaccine requirement,” the judge wrote. “We saw no decision memorandum presented to the board. We saw no resolution adopted by the board reciting any evidence. We heard no testimony from anyone who presented scientific evidence to the BART board or who made the decision.”

Despite rejecting BART’s motions to overturn the verdict and seek a new trial, the judge acknowledged minor flaws in the trial. One issue involved a gap in the jury instructions, which failed to explicitly rule out unpaid leave as a legally acceptable accommodation. However, the judge noted that BART had ample opportunity to address this issue during the trial but failed to do so.

Another issue noted by the judge was when the plaintiffs’ counsel violated a pretrial order by referencing other employees’ denied religious exemptions. Alsup described the violation as intentional but noted that it occurred during the second phase of the trial, after the jury had already ruled on BART’s undue hardship defense. The judge concluded that the misconduct did not prejudice the verdict.

The judge regrets these flaws but they, even in combination, did not result in a miscarriage of justice,” Alsup wrote. “The trial was still fair enough to stand.”

Alsup’s ruling upholds the jury trial’s finding that BART had failed to prove that it would have suffered undue hardship by granting the vaccine exemptions, and that the six former employees met the burden of showing that there was a conflict between their religious beliefs and the vaccine mandate. This means that the jury’s award of $7,825,859 in damages to the six former employees stands.

BART spokesman James Allison told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that the agency had no comment on the verdict.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/02/2025 – 11:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/yqOHF8a Tyler Durden

WTI Holds Near 3-Month Highs As Cushing ‘Tank Bottoms’ Loom

WTI Holds Near 3-Month Highs As Cushing ‘Tank Bottoms’ Loom

Oil prices kicked off 2025 with strong gains as WTI pushed above $73 – its highest since October – as it broke above a key technical level after API reported a small crude draw last night. The prices gains came despite a weak China PMIs (which potentially prompots more hope for further stimulus), but was helped by a modest rise in US PMIs.

“President Xi Jinping’s statements promising more proactive policies to stimulate growth have raised expectations of increased energy demand. While recent data indicates marginal growth in the country’s manufacturing activity, sectors such as services and construction have started showing signs of recovery, suggesting a gradual strengthening of China’s economy,” said Antonio Di Giacomo, senior market analyst at XS.com, in a note.

This morning we get the final look at supply and inventory data from the DOE:

“A draw is likely because producer and storage operators generally try to empty their tanks by year-end for tax reasons,” said Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA.

API

  • Crude -1.4mm

  • Cushing +300k

  • Gasoline +2.2mm

  • Distillates +5.7mm

 

DOE

  • Crude -1.18mm

  • Cushing -142k

  • Gasoline +7.72mm — biggest build since year-end 2024

  • Distillates +6.41mm — biggest build since year-end 2024

The official data confirmed API’s with the sixth straight weekly crude drawdown (and another draw at the Cushing hub) but product stocks soared higher (as year-end tax-related issues likely affected them)…

Source: Bloomberg

Including the addition of a further 260k barrels to SPR, total US crude inventories declined for the sixth straight week…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks at the crucial Cushing hub slipped closer to ‘tank bottoms’ – lowest since Oct 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production dipped very modestly off record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI surged above its 100DMA to its highest since October ahead of the official inventory data

Source: Bloomberg

WTI posted the smallest annual price move in almost two decades last year, and investors are bracing for an oversupply this year, making it harder for OPEC+ to revive idled production. Still, the unpredictability of a second presidential term by Donald Trump is clouding the outlook.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/02/2025 – 11:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/6hfzDPI Tyler Durden

Biden To Award Liz Cheney, Bennie Thompson With Medals For J6 Witch Hunt

Biden To Award Liz Cheney, Bennie Thompson With Medals For J6 Witch Hunt

President Joe Biden will award two members of the January 6th Committee – Liz Cheney and Rep. Bennie Thompson (R-MS) with the second-highest civilian honor for their roles in the carefully controlled witch hunt.

According to the Associated Press, whoever is running the country decided that Cheney, Thompson, and 18 other individuals will receive the Presidential Citizens Medal on Thursday.

“President Biden believes these Americans are bonded by their common decency and commitment to serving others,” the White House said in a statement. “The country is better because of their dedication and sacrifice.”

That said, we all know it was a sham from the beginning

The J6 Committee was controversial and heavily partisan from the beginning. When it was first announced, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) gave then-Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) a chance to seat the conventional number of Republicans on the committee. However, she rejected two of his choices, Congressmen Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Jim Banks (R-Ind.), for being too conservative, which led to McCarthy refusing to name any Republicans to the committee.

Pelosi herself then chose just two Republicans for the committee, both of whom were known for being radically anti-Trump: Cheney and Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.). Both Cheney and Kinzinger became extremely unpopular as a result of their involvement, with Kinzinger choosing to retire ahead of the 2022 midterms, while Cheney was defeated by primary challenger Harriet Hageman in one of the biggest landslides against an incumbent in the history of the House of Representatives. –American Greatness

Meanwhile, as Julie Kelly noted last week, it appears that Cheney is preparing to fight any Trump-era federal and/or congressional probe into her ‘demonstrably corrupt role’ as vice chairman of the J6 committee.

Text messages obtained by Representative Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga), chair of a House subcommittee looking into the J6 committee, prove that Cheney colluded behind the scenes with star witness Cassidy Hutchinson, who dramatically changed her testimony after connecting with Cheney. The communications could represent witness tampering, subornation of perjury—every former White House official including the driver of the presidential vehicle on January 6 has refuted Hutchinson’s account of Trump’s behavior that day—and obstruction.

Based on the results of his ongoing inquiry, Loudermilk determined that “numerous federal laws were likely broken by Liz Cheney” and called for the FBI to investigate her.

Cheney immediately responded by playing the victim and, of course, by blaming Donald Trump. But the American people appear uninterested in Cheney’s excuses; a new Rasmussen poll shows strong public support, including three-quarters of Republicans, for an FBI investigation into the bitter and defeated nepobaby.

If Trump’s Department of Justice decides to proceed, Cheney undoubtedly will seek immunity protections in an attempt to keep records away from federal investigators; members of Congress are entitled to immunity under the Speech or Debate Clause of the Constitution, which shields lawmakers from criminal liability related to their legislative duties.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/02/2025 – 11:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/If2ulDj Tyler Durden

Hindenburg Research Latest In A Long Line Of Short Sellers Critical On Carvana

Hindenburg Research Latest In A Long Line Of Short Sellers Critical On Carvana

Shares of Carvana are on watch after short seller Hindenburg Research joins what can only be described as a long line of critics who have pointed out irregularities with the company’s accounting.

Calling the company a “father-son accounting grift for the ages”, the firm led by Nate Anderson says after “extensive document review and 49 interviews with industry experts, former Carvana employees, competitors and related parties of the company” they’re convinced the company’s turnaround is a “mirage”. 

“Our research uncovered $800 million in loan sales to a suspected undisclosed related party, along with details on how accounting manipulation and lax underwriting have fueled temporary reported income growth – all while insiders cash out billions in stock,” the firm wrote. 

“Even before considering the findings of our investigation, Carvana is exorbitantly valued, trading at an 845% higher sales multiple relative to online car peers CarMax and AutoNation, and a 754% premium on a forward earnings basis. The company has ~$4.8 billion in junk-rated debt. Carvana’s business already faces major headwinds. Used vehicle prices have declined 20.3% in the past 2 years, according to the Manheim Price Index. Subprime auto loan delinquencies are now higher than during the Global Financial Crisis, per Fitch,” the firm concluded.

The firm raised questions about Carvana’s partners, stating: “Carvana has relied on a purchase commitment agreement with Ally Financial, to which it sold $3.6 billion of vehicle loans in 2023, ~60% of its total originations. Carvana has told investors for at least 6 years that it is seeking to diversify outside of its relationship with Ally, but thus far has not announced new financing partners.”

“Over the last 2 years, Ally’s loan book has become increasingly concentrated, with Carvana loans rising from 5% of its consumer auto portfolio to 8.4%. In September 2024, Ally’s stock fell 20% after warning investors that ‘on the retail auto side, our credit challenges have intensified'”.

Hindenburg writes that: “Sales to Ally have scaled back year to date through September 2024. Carvana sold $2.15 billion of loans to Ally in the period (~$2.86 billion on an annualized basis), only 35% of total originations. This compares to $3.6 billion in loans or 60% of total originations in 2023.”

Anderson’s firm now raises questions about who is buying Carvana’s loans, stating: “With Ally pulling back, a new, unnamed buyer has quietly emerged exactly when Carvana needed it. In the past two quarters, Carvana sold $800 million in loans to an ‘unrelated third party.’ The mystery buyer made up 18.3% and 16.3% of total loan sales in Q2 and Q3 2024.”

“Lien filings reveal the buyer is likely a trust affiliated with Cerberus Capital, where Carvana Director Dan Quayle is Chairman of Global Investments, indicating the new buyer is an undisclosed related-party, contrary to the company’s claims.”

Hindenburg continues: “Previously, Carvana CEO Ernie Garcia III’s father, Ernest Garcia II, sold $3.6 billion in stock between August 2020 and August 2021. In the year after he stopped selling, Carvana’s stock plunged 99% and faced bankruptcy concerns shortly thereafter. Since 2023 we see the same trend: Carvana has touted a bright future and posted three consecutive quarters of modest positive net income, an aggregate of $245 million, despite stress in the used auto market.”

The report continues: “For every $1 in net income it reported, the company has added $139 in market cap – a $34 billion market cap increase. With Carvana shares up ~42x, father Ernest Garcia II has sold another $1.4 billion in Carvana stock. As insiders unload stock, the company’s solvency risks remain. Almost 26% of Carvana’s gross profit consisted of sales of customer auto loans to third parties, largely in the risky subprime and deep subprime space. Gain on loan sales represented 2.2x Carvana’s net income in the past 9 months.”

Anderson’s Hindenburg is best known for its scathing criticism of one of Asia’s richest men, Gautam Adani, who the short seller accused of running the “largest corporate con in history”. Since then, Adani, along with multiple associates, has been indicted in the U.S. on unrelated charges of bribery. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/02/2025 – 10:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/qC7S4X5 Tyler Durden

Georgia Judge Found Dead In Courthouse

Georgia Judge Found Dead In Courthouse

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A state court judge in Georgia was found dead in a county courtroom on Tuesday morning from a suspected self-inflicted gunshot wound, according to a local sheriff.

A judges gavel rests on top of a desk in a courtroom in Miami, Florida, on Feb. 3, 2009. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Judge Stephen Yekel, 74, of the Effingham County State Court was discovered by a sheriff’s deputy in the courthouse between 10:00 and 10:30 a.m. The court was not in session at the time of the incident.

Sheriff Jimmy McDuffie said initial evidence suggests Yekel likely took his own life the previous night.

There was a note sent to the governor’s office,” McDuffie said during a press briefing, though he said details about the note’s contents were still being investigated. A copy of the note has reportedly been circulating on social media, but authorities have not verified its authenticity.

Yekel, appointed by Gov. Brian Kemp in June 2022, served as a state court judge for nearly two years.

Yekel recently attempted to resign from his position after losing a re-election bid, but Kemp did not accept the resignation.

In his Dec. 6 resignation letter to Kemp, Yekel said he would resign on Dec. 30. In response, Kemp wrote on Dec. 12, “Your resignation is not effective unless and until I accept it … I must decline to do so.”

While we are unable to provide comment on an open investigation, Judge Yekel’s family and loved ones are in all our thoughts and prayers during this difficult time,” Kemp’s office told WSAV News 3.

McDuffie extended his condolences to the Yekel family, adding that the tragedy has deeply affected the local legal community.

“This is never good for anybody,” McDuffie said. “The family is distraught. It’s supposed to be a happy time of year, and now they’ve got this.”

The Effingham County Sheriff’s Office is leading the investigation into Yekel’s death, with assistance from the Georgia Bureau of Investigation (GBI) for the autopsy.

The Effingham County Board of Commissioners released a statement mourning Yekel’s death and announced resources for county staff affected by the tragedy.

“The Effingham County Board of Commissioners and staff are deeply saddened by the tragic death of Judge Steve Yekel at the Effingham County Courthouse today, and we offer our condolences to his family and loved ones,” the statement posted on Facebook reads.

A crisis response team has been made available at the Effingham County Administrative Complex, with additional support services offered to employees in the coming days.

The Epoch Times contacted Kemp’s office for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/02/2025 – 10:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/mI0RjTf Tyler Durden