The transgender shooter behind the 2023 Nashville elementary school attack that killed six people, including three children, had been planning it for years while struggling with mental health issues, according to a police report released Wednesday.
The nearly 50-page investigative case summary by Metro Nashville Police closes the agency’s probe into the shooting at the Christian, private Covenant School in March 2023.
Contrary to widespread media reports, the investigation said that no manifesto existed.
“In this case, a manifesto didn’t exist. Hale never left behind a single document explaining why she committed the attack, why she specifically targeted The Covenant, and what she hoped to gain, if anything, with the attack,” the Nashville police report states.
Instead, the shooter, Audrey Hale, left behind “a series of notebooks, art composition books, and media files created by Hale documenting her planning and preparation for the attack, the events in her life that motivated her to commit the attack, and her hopes regarding the outcome of the attack,” police determined.
Hale, who once attended Covenant, was killed by police.
Hale identified as a man at the time of the attack, but the police report uses female pronouns. The report doesn’t refer to Hale as transgender.
“She began to use the name ‘Aiden Williams’ in the years prior to her death and used male pronouns on her social media and networking accounts. Nothing has been found to suggest she initiated or was undergoing a transition at the time of her death, including medical documentation,” the report states.
“During her autopsy following her death, it was determined she was biologically female.”
Hale began receiving treatment at Vanderbilt University Medical Center on April 23, 2001, when the shooter was just six years old. She first fantasized about committing a mass shooting in November 2017, after watching documentaries about school shootings and “remembering her social struggles in middle school,” according to the Nashville police report.
By December 2018, Hale also began planning an attack at a different middle school where she had once been a student, the report says. Months later, her therapist became “concerned,” and recommended Hale take part in a psychological assessment at VUMC, according to the police report. That assessment occurred in June 2019.
“Based on records from the assessment, VUMC confirmed the mental health disorders Hale was already known to have and identified her depression and anxiety as the largest aggravating factors. They made no mention of psychosis and noted Hale denied having any plans to harm herself or others, nor the means to do so,” the Nashville police report states.
After her assessment, Hale participated in an eight-week “intensive outpatient program.”
“For a short period of time, the treatment seemed to work, as Hale’s writings tended to be more positive, and fewer mentions of depression and anxiety were present. She seemed more hopeful about life and the possibility of finding independence and success,” the police report states.
“But these feelings quickly faded, as the social and personal factors that drove her depression in the first place never left. Hale quickly sunk back into deep rage and despair.”
Hale continued to fantasize about school shootings for the next several years until she carried one out the morning of March 27, 2023. Hale’s shooting spree lasted about 20 minutes before police killed her.
Transgender Christian school shooter Audrey Hale began receiving treatment at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in 2001, when she was 6.
According to the Nashville police report released today, Hale first fantasized about committing a mass shooting in November 2017.
“Due to the audible fire alarm, the earplugs she was wearing throughout the attack, and the sound of her own gunfire, Hale never heard the police officers as they entered the lobby behind her. One officer then fired a 5.56mm caliber rifle at Hale, striking her and knocking her to the ground,” the Nashville police report states.
“As the officers approached Hale to take her into custody, they saw she still had possession of her firearms and her arms were moving. A second officer fired a 9mm caliber pistol at her. She was fatally wounded by the officers’ gunfire.”
The people killed in the shooting at Covenant were: Evelyn Dieckhaus, Hallie Scruggs, and William Kinney, all 9 years old; Cynthia Peak, 61; Katherine Koonce, 60; and Mike Hill, 61.
The Tennessee Star still has an ongoing lawsuit to compel MNPD and the FBI to release Hale’s full writings.
The Star reported Wednesday that it’s extended a settlement offer to FBI Director Kash Patel, who had called for Hale’s “manifesto” to be made public before he became director.
“FBI Director Kash Patel indicated that he would release Hale’s writings if made the agency’s director, and SNDM has extended a settlement offer that would see the lawsuit dropped in exchange for Patel dropping the agency’s opposition to their release around the time of his confirmation. The FBI has yet to respond to the offer,” the Star reported.
The evidence held by law enforcement on Hale includes more than 100 gigabytes of data, which includes over 900 pages of her writings.
President Trump’s late afternoon announcement on Wednesday—”Liberation Day“—unveiled a far more aggressive tariff policy than top Wall Street analysts had anticipated, prompting panic dumping in global equities and futures markets overnight.
Of particular concern is Trump’s stance toward China. The total effective tariff rate on Chinese imports surged to 54%, a dramatic increase of 34% from the previously imposed 20% in additional levies tied to fentanyl and earlier duties.
Trump’s Liberation Day has drawn swift condemnation from Beijing, which has described the escalating tariff war as “unilateral bullying.”
Nikkei Asia quoted China’s Ministry of Commerce, warning that it “firmly opposes” Trump’s tariffs and “will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests.”
The Commerce Ministry noted that the US “ignored” the benefits of a global trading system, adding, “The so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs,’ which are based on subjective and unilateral assessments by the United States, are not in line with the rules of international trade, seriously jeopardize the legitimate rights and interests of the parties concerned, and are typical of unilateral bullying.”
The ministry did not discuss specifics on the countermeasures. A ministry spokesperson told reporters that Beijing hopes to “resolve various issues through equal consultation.”
In other words, it’s just a matter of time before Beijing mounts a countermeasure against the US, whether that’s targeted tariffs, export controls, or other measures (such as targeting US Big Tech). Or as we’ve recently seen: Beijing Derailing Panama Port Deal.
Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, sang the same tune: China “firmly opposes” Trump’s trade war escalation, which “seriously undermines” the rules-based global trading system. He urged Washington to resolve trade differences through talks.
However, President Trump tried that with the Chinese Communist Party in his first term with the so-called “Phase One” agreement. Beijing committed to purchasing $200 billion of additional US exports. Yet, the phase one deal with the CCP was derailed by Covid disruptions.
The Trump administration’s goal with reciprocal tariffs against literally the entire world, including some cases of near triple-digit reciprocal tariffs that will lead to a historic emerging markets shock, is to reverse a half-century or more of de-industrialization policies in the US that have hollowed out the nation’s core and produced a national security threat as the world fractures into a bipolar state.
In financial markets, the People’s Bank of China set the daily reference rate for the yuan at 7.1889 per dollar, weakening the currency. This allows the yuan to depreciate and support export competitiveness. A move like this will only draw accusations of currency manipulation from Trump.
“We maintain our view that the PBOC will not allow a sharp [yuan] depreciation given capital outflow risks and the government’s objective to restore confidence in the Chinese economy,” HK Mizuho Securities analyst Ken Cheung wrote in a note earlier.
Goldman analysts Andrew Tilton and others told clients:
On April 2, President Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs on trading partners with exclusion of products that are subject to sectoral tariffs, resulting in what we estimate to be an increase of 26pp in the average effective US tariff rate on China, which would bring the total effective tariff rate on Chinese goods to 58%.
This is much higher than we and the market had expected. Similar to the experience when the previous two 10% tariff increases were imposed on China earlier this year, we think the Chinese government is likely to retaliate with some targeted tariffs on US products as well as non-tariff measures like export controls.
We expect policymakers to continue to resist significant CNY depreciation. We believe the government will step up easing measures to offset the additional growth drag from higher tariffs. We are not changing our 2025 full-year GDP growth forecast of 4.5% at this time due to better-than-expected Q1 data and increased policy easing expectations, as well as remaining uncertainties regarding whether some of the tariffs could be negotiated down in the coming months. That said, we acknowledge downside risk from slowing global growth after the large, across-the board US tariff increases.
S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Ming Tan warned that Trump’s tariffs could exacerbate China’s weak economy:
“The drag on China’s economy from higher tariffs will transmit to banks. We expect problem loans will rise over the next few years and could leap as high as 6.4% of total loans in a downside scenario.”
Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, had a big-picture view for clients: “The era of Asia’s export manufacturing-led development has come to an end, and the region will need to develop markets closer to home.”
In Warning To Turkey, Israel Strikes Several Bases Across Syria
Israel on Tuesday carried out several major airstrikes on Syria, including targeting the capital of Damascus, according to state agency SANA.
“An Israeli occupation airstrike targeted the vicinity of the building of the scientific research center in the Barzeh residential district of Damascus,” the outlet said. This area has been hit several times in recent years, as it conducted chemical weapons research under Assad.
Separate airstrikes rocked a military airport in Hamas, and reportedly the T4 airbase in Homs province, in central Syria (Syrian desert).
No causalities were initially reported, but some sources say they were particularly intense, with five airstrikes launched on the Hama air base in less than half an hour on Wednesday evening.
Regional war correspondent Elijah Magnier observers of the strikes:
After bombing Damascus, Israel also bombed Syria, Hama and the T4 airport, challenging Turkey, which was/is planning to establish a military air base at the same bombed airport.
Since Bashar al-Assad’s ouster on December 8, Israel has conducted literally hundreds of strikes on army bases, weapons storehouses, and alleged chemical weapons sites.
The timing of these fresh strikes is interesting especially given Turkey’s growing closeness to the new Jolani regime.
We earlier featured reporting which says Turkey is mulling the takeover of Syria’s T4 airbase, and could provide aircover to the new government, given it has no air protection to speak of. It appears Israel wants to ensure this doesn’t happen:
A source familiar with the matter told MEE that Turkey has begun moving to take control of the T4 air base, located near Palmyra in central Syria. “A Hisar-type air defense system will be deployed to T4 to provide air cover for the base,” the source said.
“Once the system is in place, the base will be reconstructed and expanded with necessary facilities. Ankara also plans to deploy surveillance and armed drones, including those with extended strike capabilities,” the same report said.
Israel sends a warning to Turkey by heavily striking bases across Syria, saying that Ankara shouldn’t try to prevent Israelis from flying over the airspace https://t.co/VlF5ewcsis
While Iran has long been Israel’s enemy number one in Syria, Turkey is increasingly being viewed from Tel Aviv as a dangerous regional rival, especially as it cozies up to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham/AQ militants in Syria. Israel now wants to ensure it has complete dominance over Syria’s skies for the foreseeable future.
California Representative Maxine Waters, ranking member of the US House Financial Services Committee, used her opening statement at a markup hearing to criticize President Donald Trump’s business and ethical entanglements with the crypto industry, including the launch of a stablecoin by a family-backed company.
Addressing lawmakers at an April 2 hearing, Waters said Trump had used his position as president to leverage “multiple crypto schemes” for profit, including a US dollar-pegged stablecoin launched by World Liberty Financial (WLFI) — the firm backed by his family.
The California lawmaker pointed to Trump’s memecoin launched in January, his plans to establish a national cryptocurrency stockpile, and “his own stablecoin,” referring to WLFI’s USD1 token launched in March.
Rep. Maxine Waters addressing the House Financial Services Committee on April 2. Source: GOP Financial Services
“With this stablecoin bill, this committee is setting an unacceptable and dangerous precedent, validating the president and his insiders’ efforts to write rules of the road that will enrich themselves at the expense of everyone else,” said Waters, adding:
“Trump likely wants the entire government to use stablecoins from payments made by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, to Social Security payments, to paying taxes. And which coin do you think Trump would replace the dollar with? His own, of course.”
Waters does not stand alone in her criticism of Trump’s crypto ventures, with many lawmakers and experts across the political spectrum suggesting potential conflicts of interest.
Committee Chair French Hill, who spoke on stablecoins before Waters, also reportedly said that the Trump family’s involvement in the industry makes legislation “more complicated.”
“If there is no effort to block the President of the United States of America from owning his stablecoin business […] I will never be able to agree on supporting this bill, and I would ask other members not to be enablers,” said Waters.
Representative Bryan Steil, who introduced the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy, or STABLE Act, did not immediately address Waters’ concerns about Trump’s stablecoin but referred to establishing safeguards for consumers.
Hill did not mention Trump in his opening statement but said there needed to be a “clear federal framework” for payment stablecoins.
Crypto legislation moving through Congress
The committee will consider amendments to the STABLE Act, as well as bills to combat illicit finance using emerging financial technologies and blocking the US government from issuing a central bank digital currency, or CBDC.
The markup hearing was a necessary step before the committee could vote on whether to advance the bills to the House of Representatives.
Some European central banking and supervisory officials are questioning whether they can still rely on the U.S. Federal Reserve to provide dollar funding in times of market stress, six people familiar with the matter said, casting some doubt over what has been a bedrock of financial stability.
But the European officials have held informal discussions about this possibility – which Reuters is reporting for the first time – because their trust in the United States government has been shaken by some of the Trump administration’s policies.
President Donald Trump has made a sharp break from long-standing U.S. policy in several areas, such as appearing to endorse Russia’s position on Ukraine, raising questions about U.S. commitment to European security and imposing tariffs on its allies.
In some European forums where participants assess potential risks to the financial system, these officials have discussed scenarios under which the U.S. government might pressure the Fed to suspend the dollar backstops, two of the sources said.
Some officials have been gaming out whether they can find alternatives to the U.S. central bank, the two sources said. In times of market stress, the Fed has provided the European Central Bank and other major counterparts with access to dollar funding.
The takeaway from these discussions: there is no good substitute to the Fed, said the six sources, who include senior ECB and European Union banking supervisory staff with first-hand knowledge of the conversations.
The sources all requested anonymity to speak candidly about the private deliberations.
The ECB and the Fed declined to comment for this article. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Remarkable Discussion
My answer is the same as what sources told Reuters.
“The sources consider it highly unlikely the Fed would not honour its funding backstops — and the U.S. central bank itself has given no signals to suggest that.”
However, that Europe sees any need for this discussion is remarkable in and of itself.
The Fed is still independent, at least for now. But it’s fair game to assume the US Treasury might pressure the Fed to do whatever the Hell Trump wants.
The recent removal of Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system has highlighted the importance of payments in supporting economies. But the weaponization of SWIFT has also left some commentators worrying about the loss of the U.S. dollar’s dominance, as it might drive banks and firms to other substitutes. This Economic Brief discusses the economics of SWIFT and explains why emigrating from the U.S. dollar may be more difficult than we thought.
The Richmond’s Fed’s assessment is self-serving. Yet, it appears accurate. Importantly the Fed even admits weaponization, the emphasis was mine.
The FDIC made a “systemic risk exception” for Silicon Valley Bank to protect depositor funds beyond its limit of $250,000 per bank account.
FDIC’s stated “insurance” is for US depositors only. But the exception to make all US depositors whole means foreign depositors bear 100% of responsibility for the collapse of SVB.
Since bond holders rate higher than unsecured depositors, and the FDIC had significant losses rated to SVB, foreign depositors may get zero cents on the dollar.
If you are a foreign depositor at any small or midsized bank, the FDIC is affirming that you better get your money out now.
What Does China Do With a Dollar That’s No Longer Risk Free?
Mish: Will China now hold more commodities and fewer dollars despite the pro-cyclical nature of it? More Euros or Yen over dollars? More gold?
Michael Pettis:
“Given that so much of China’s “reserves” are now indirect and held by state-owned banks (all the increase since 2017) it’s hard to say what the currency composition of China’s reserves are.
“Officially the US dollar is still by far the biggest component, but it is slowly declining.
“I expect that this will continue as far as the official reserves go but, as you know, the hard part of reducing the US dollar component of your reserves is figuring out what the alternative should be, and with such high and growing reserves (once you include the indirect reserves at the state-owned banks) that is a very difficult question to resolve.”
“Strategists Joana Freire and Stephen Jen calculated that the greenback accounted for about two-thirds of total global reserves in 2003, then 55% by 2021, and 47% last year.”
This question comes up every year, and every year my answer is the same.
No, Luke Gromen, China masks its US treasury holding.
Here’s the correct take.
Here’s another take.
Setser “The dollar’s share of reserves didn’t actually change at all in 2022.“
But if the IMF’s data on reserve holdings is adjusted for changes in US bond market valuation, I don’t get any real US dollar sales —
No currency got large reserve inflows in 22 in fact.
If Russia or China had a gold-backed BRIC, what would that even mean? Would you trust it? Buy it?
The BRIC is literally of zero threat to anyone.
Truth Social Post
“The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.”
“They can go find another “sucker!” There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.”
Let’s start with the obvious. First, Trump is bluffing. Second, he is clueless as to what the real problem is.
Global Consumers of Last Resort
The US is stuck with the reserve currency because we have the largest, most open capital markets in the world, the world’s largest bond market, and a far better business climate than the EU, China, or Japan.
BRICS Irony
Trump demands a weak dollar.
True competition to the dollar in the form of alternate reserve currencies would actually help.
One way to get a weaker dollar is for the US to run huge budget deficits and for the Fed to not follow through with interest rate hikes.
But that conflicts with Trump’s promise to balance the budget. And balancing the budget would strengthen the dollar.
Strengthening the dollar would help with inflation but Trump wants a weak dollar.
Trump wants “made in America” but the US is the highest cost producer or nearly everything non-agricultural. So good luck with exports.
Trump demands no competition to the dollar, but that is one thing propping up the dollar!
It’s all so damn convoluted that Europe is now concerned over dollar funding.
US dollar avoidance is not easy, as discussed, but Trump is greatly increasing the incentive for nations to try.
I suggest the EU needs to focus on building an alternative to SWIFT, as soon as possible. The EU half-heartily tried, but gave up.
Try again, better this time.
Swift avoidance would not end dollar reliance, but it would help the EU find ways to avoid US sanctions. And a sanction showdown with the EU is coming.
ICC Blasts Hungary For Ignoring Arrest Warrant As Orban Hosts Netanyahu
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has denounced Hungary’s decision to defy its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu after The Hague charged him with war crimes last year related to the Gaza war.
Netanyahu is set to begin a four-day visit to Hungary on Wednesday. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made it clear he will not enforce the arrest warrant upon issuing the invitation. This despite Hungary being a founding member of the ICC.
This marks only Netanyahu’s second international trip since the warrant was issued, and he’s had to avoid Europe altogether until now. The only other trip was to the United States, where he had received a standing ovation in Congress.
Last November, when Budapest first unveiled the formal state invitation, Orban dismissed the ICC’s arrest warrant as “shameful” and “absurd”.
It should be noted that Hungary had also long ago declared it would never arrest Russian president Vladimir Putin should he visit the country. The conservative populist Hungarian leader had further accused The Hague of “interfering in an ongoing conflict for political purposes” – in reference to Israel’s Gaza operations.
ICC court spokesman Fadi El Abdallah in a fresh statement said that it is not for parties to the ICC “to unilaterally determine the soundness of the Court’s legal decisions.”
“Any dispute concerning the judicial functions of the Court shall be settled by the decision of the Court,” he said, asserting that member nations have an obligation to carry out the rulings of the court.
The Associated Press has observed that “Members of Orbán’s government have suggested that Hungary, which became a signatory to the court in 2001, could withdraw.”
Amnesty International was also among the human rights groups blasting Hungary’s provocative invitation, with a spokesperson saying, “Hungary’s invitation shows contempt for international law and confirms that alleged war criminals wanted by the ICC are welcome on the streets of a European Union member state.”
More anger directed at Orban as he’s already unpopular among Western European leaders, and a longtime thorn in the side of EU counterparts…
It is outrageous that any European Union state would allow Netanyahu to visit without arresting him on his outstanding International Criminal Court warrant. Hungary is no exception even though Viktor Orban routinely flouts the rule of law. https://t.co/xLoxM5YeQM
Israel’s Gaza operations started again last month, and Gaza health authorities say that over 1,000 Palestinians have died since then. This brings the official number of deaths to over 50,000. However, Israel has disputed these figures, and has claimed that tens of thousands of the casualties are actually Hamas fighters.
Days ago Israel’s military once again ordered the evacuation of Rafah, and emerging reports say that in Gaza City food and water are becoming scarce. Netanyahu has vowed, despite an avalanche of international criticism, to pursue Hamas until the group is eradicated and can no longer attempt to assert its rule over Gaza.
Violent crime and sexual assault cases have increased in number even further in Germany, according to police statistics.
The number of “non-German” suspects has also risen by over 7 and a half percent, according to the figures seen by German newspaper Die Welt.
The statistics show that violent crime as a whole was up by 1.5 per cent in 2024, a new record high for the country.
1/ German federal crime stats for 2024 are out: Overall violent crime up 1.5% over 2023, which itself was a 15-year high. Homicide +.9% Violent sex offenses +9.3% Aggravated assault +2.4% Robbery -3.7% https://t.co/hYxhZ76xbj
The report states that the number of murder and manslaughter cases are up by almost 1 per cent in a year, while serious sexual crimes including rape and sexual assault leading to death have risen by a whopping 9.3 per cent in 2024.
3/ Overall crime dropped slightly, mostly owing to the German government’s decision to legalize cannabis (the number of cannabis offenses dropped 53%). Number of non-German suspects overall stable at just under 50%, 17.5% of criminal suspects are asylum-seekers.
As we have previously noted, the “non-German” suspects aspect is also misleading given that many of the “German” suspects of crimes are really foreigners who have obtained German citizenship, or they are Second or third generation migrants.
2023’s stats revealed that violent crime in Germany rocketed to a 15 year high, and 2024’s stats show that it continues to climb.
Over 41 percent of all crime suspects in Germany are foreigners, despite only representing 15 percent of the total population. Foreign migrants were also responsible for 58.5 percent of all violent crimes.
Meanwhile, the new German government coalition, which is likely to be the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) is looking to ban “lies,” according to a working paper that emerged from the group “culture and media” between the two parties.
What constitutes ‘lies’ you might ask. Well, Bild newspaper received a copy of the working paper, which outlines “disinformation and fake news” as threats to democracy.
Given that anything that goes against the leftist government narrative is deemed to be ‘disinformation’, you can see where this is headed.
Another part of the paper addresses “hate and agitation.” Again, you can see where that’s heading.
As we previously highlighted, District council member Marie-Thérèse Kaiser of the AfD Party was found guilty of ‘incitement’ by a district court after she posted a link to the government’s own statistics on crimes committed by migrants, specifically rape, and asked why they are so disproportionately high.
Opposition parties on the right, including AfD, have continually argued that the data shows the urgent need for a cap on immigration, and have argued that such ‘integration’ policies are a key component of the coalition government’s race to naturalize millions of foreigners, thereby masking the truth of who is behind the crime surge.
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Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have imposed a ban on US warplanes using their air fields or skies to attack Iran after US President Donald Trump over the weekend threatened to bomb the country.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait have all told the US they will not permit their airspaces or territories to be used as a launchpad against Iran, including for refuelling and rescue operations, a senior US official told Middle East Eye. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military planning. “They do not want to be drawn in,” the official said.
The Gulf states’ intransigence is a setback for the Trump administration, which has hoped to use massive air strikes on the Houthis in Yemen as a show of force to corral Tehran to the negotiating table on a nuclear deal. If Iran realizes the US’s oil-rich Arab allies are not on board with strikes, it could harden their negotiating position.
The Gulf states were more accommodating on the Houthi strikes, a former US official briefed on the matter told MEE without divulging which Gulf countries the US used as a launchpad for recent strikes.
The former official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the US felt confident it had enough Gulf support, including to launch important recovery flights, if any American aircraft were downed during those operations.
The Trump administration has been courting the Gulf states to come on board as it ramps up a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran. US defense and intelligence officials met with both their Emirati and Saudi counterparts in March in Washington DC, around the time of the first Houthi strikes.
In quick succession, the Trump administration approved long-stalled arms sales to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Doha received approval to purchase MQ-9 Reaper drones, and Riyadh secured weapon systems that convert unguided air to ground rockets to precision rockets.
Trump said on Monday that he plans to visit Saudi Arabia and potentially other Gulf states as early as May.
US turns to Diego Garcia base
The US has been moving warplanes and cargo to Jordan and Gulf states at the highest level since the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel morphed into a simmering regional conflict.
According to flight tracking data shared on X by open source analysts, the number of US military cargo flights to the region has surged by 50 percent compared to previous highs. In response to the Gulf states’ ban, the US has amassed B-2 bombers at Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, the official said.
This is not the first time American war planners leaned on Diego Garcia’s strategic position as an alternative to Gulf air bases. During the late 1990s, when the US was bombing Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Saudi Arabia imposed a freeze, the US used the Chagos Islands base as a launchpad.
Open-source satellite information provided by Planet Labs earlier this week showed three B-2 bombers on the US base. Other open-source accounts shared imagery suggesting at least five B-2 bombers were on the base.
The Chagos Islands base is within 5,300 kilometres of Iran, well within the B-2 refuelling range of approximately 11,000 kilometres. B-2s are capable of carrying 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bombs that would be needed to penetrate Iran’s nuclear sites deep underground, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Diego Garcia complicates Iran’s power of deterrence against the US.
Iran’s tit-for-tat warnings on Gulf
In October 2024, when Iran was girding for Israeli retaliation over its second direct missile attack on Israel, the Islamic Republic warned Gulf states it would bomb their oil facilities in response to an Israeli strike.
Those carefully constructed tit-for-tat warnings allowed Iran to ward off an Israeli strike on their energy facilities at the time. However, if the US uses Diego Garcia to attack Iran, it could avoid the Gulf states’ airspace altogether, or at the very least, give Gulf monarchs some plausible deniability about being involved in strikes. That gives Iran fewer options to deter American or Israeli strikes by threatening the Gulf.
Iran was believed to be behind the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities. But Iran and the Sunni Gulf monarchs have patched up ties since then. The Telegraph reported on Monday that Iranian military commanders were being urged to launch pre-emptive strikes on Diego Garcia.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation For Defence of Democracies think tank in Washington, said on X that while Tehran’s ballistic missiles’ range is publicly capped at 2,000 kilometres, it could hit the island by giving intermediate range ballistic missiles to the Houthis which it may be able to produce, launching Shahed drones from ships or using container-launched cruise missiles that Russia and China produce to attack from the Indian Ocean.
From Pacific to Middle East
Trump raised the specter of a new Middle East war in an interview on Saturday, threatening “bombing the likes of which they (Iran) have never seen before” if Iran doesn’t agree to a nuclear deal.
Trump is pursuing maximalist demands on Iran’s nuclear programme. National security advisor Mike Waltz said recently that the US wanted to see a “full dismantlement” of Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.
Iran, which insists its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, has rejected that. The Trump administration’s demands also put the US on a collision course with Russia, with which it is trying to reset relations. Russia built Iran’s first nuclear power plant at Bushehr, and its state-run atomic energy giant Rosatom says it is in talks to build more.
Regional diplomats and analysts are trying to decipher whether the US military build-up in the Middle East is designed to put teeth behind Trump’s threats or if the US is preparing for a strike. In addition to cargo flights, the US has ordered two aircraft carriers to the Middle East. Notably, the US has moved the carrier Carl Vinson out of the Pacific and to the Middle East, despite heightened tensions around Taiwan.
The US has at least 40,000 troops in the Middle East. The majority are located in the oil-rich Gulf states, where they are based at a string of strategic air and naval bases.
Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base is home to the US’s 378th Air Expeditionary Wing, which operates F-16 and F-35 jet fighters. The US operates MQ-9 Reaper drones and jet fighters out of the UAE’s Al Dhafra Air Base. Kuwait’s Ali al-Salem Air Base is home to the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing.
Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base hosts the regional headquarters for US Central Command. It has also hosted some Israeli military officials, MEE has previously reported, but it’s not clear if those officials are still in the country. The island kingdom of Bahrain is home to around 9,000 US troops that belong to the headquarters of the US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Fifth Fleet.
Trump warned last weekend that Zelensky will have “some problems – big, big problems” if he “tries to back out of the rare earth deal” amidst reports that the latest version of this agreement is very lopsided. It allegedly compels Ukraine to contribute half of its revenue from all resource projects and related infrastructure into a US-controlled investment fund, pay off all US aid from 2022 onward through these means, and give the US the right of first offer on new projects and a veto over resource sales to others.
These tougher terms can be considered punishment for Zelensky picking his infamous fight with Trump and Vance at the White House in late February, but the whole package is being sold to Ukraine as a “security guarantee” from the US. The argument goes that America won’t let Russia threaten these projects, which also include pipelines and ports, thus leading to it at the very least resuming 2023-levels of military-intelligence aid and maybe even directly escalating with Russia to get it into back down.
Ukraine kinda already has such Article 5-like guarantees from the US and other major NATO countries per the bilateral pacts that it clinched with them all throughout last year as explained here, but this proposed arrangement gives the US tangible stakes in deterring or immediately stopping hostilities. The trade-off though is that Ukraine must sacrifice part of its economic sovereignty, which is politically uncomfortable since Zelensky told his compatriots that they’re fighting to preserve its full sovereignty.
If Zelensky agrees to Trump’s lopsided resource deal, then the optics of any ceasefire, armistice, or peace treaty would pair with de facto global recognition of Russian control over the fifth of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory that Kiev still claims as its own to craft the perception of a joint asymmetrical partition. Not only might Zelensky’s political career end if Ukraine was then forced to hold truly free and fair elections, but his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes as this century’s top “freedom fighter” would also be shattered.
He doesn’t have any feasible alternative though since going behind Trump’s back to reach a comparatively better deal with the Brits and/or Europeans wouldn’t result in the “security guarantees” that he’s convinced himself that Ukraine needs in order to compromise with Russia. No one other than the US has any chance of militarily taking on Russia, let alone the political will, and not to mention solely over their investments in a war-torn third country whose resource wealth is reportedly questionable.
If Zelensky keeps dillydallying, then Trump might once again temporarily suspend military and intelligence aid to Ukraine as leverage while tacking on even more punitive terms as revenge. The conflict with Russia would also naturally continue, thus making it impossible for Ukraine to develop its resource industry and related infrastructure even if it reached a deal with someone else. The longer that the conflict lasts, the greater the likelihood that Russia will destroy more of those same assets too.
But if Zelensky accepts the latest deal on offer, then he’d obtain the “security guarantees” that he’s looking for, thus making him more likely to accept a ceasefire and then possibly leading to Trump putting further pressure on Putin to follow suit such as imposing strict secondary sanctions on Russian oil clients. Zelensky would sacrifice his political career, his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes, and part of his country’s economic sovereignty, but he’d avert a much worse scenario than if he rejected this deal.
There is nothing more dangerous than an incomplete picture of history. A hundred years from now, if the powers-that-be have their way, the few children still allowed to be born (due to carbon controls) will be regaled with school lessons about the “Dark Ages of Nationalism” – When humanity was divided into warring states and divided societies that refused to embrace multiculturalism “to the detriment of all”.
They will say that a “great movement” for globalism and wokeness arose and that the courageous revolutionaries fought evil conservative fascists using any means necessary. The political left will be painted as heroes fighting, not for freedom, but for equity and the “greater good”. Western culture, Christianity, meritocracy, moral objectivity, personal liberty and appeals to reason will be demonized as relics of the old world – Monstrous constructs that prevented civilization from attaining true “oneness”.
None of this will be true, of course. The majority of wars are triggered by globalist interests, not nationalists, and the political left is a gaggle of insane zealots hellbent on destroying the west. But, as they say, history is written by the victors.
Many conservatives and liberty advocates still don’t understand that we are in the middle of a 4th Generation conflict. It’s not a political or ideological disagreement, it’s a war; a guerrilla war in which the enemy hides behind civilian status and the legal apparatus.
They use our moral code and our constitutional provisions against us. They find loopholes in the governmental structure and exploit those weaknesses. They turn our society into a living suicide bomb, all while claiming they hold a position of ethical superiority. It has happened before…
If you get the chance I highly recommend readers check out the in-depth investigative analysis of professor and economist Antony Sutton; specifically his book ‘Wall Street And The Bolshevik Revolution’. In it he describes the historical timeline of how Trotsky and Lenin were funded and aided by the elites of the era. The key leaders of the Marxist takeover of Russia could not have done what they did without the help of American and European globalists.
The greater takeaway from Sutton’s revelation is not so much what happened in the past, but what is happening NOW and how it is similar.
The reality of a hidden hand behind the Bolshevik Revolution might sound rather familiar – Today’s DOGE audits have exposed massive bureaucratic manipulation schemes through agencies like USAID to instigate political and social change in America and in foreign nations. These schemes involve vast sums of taxpayer subsidies cycling through globalist controlled NGOs that then use the free cash to push multiculturalism, LGBT propaganda and color revolution.
The agenda to create a one world system and erase traditional western principles is ongoing, handed down from one generation of globalists to the next in a parasitic lineage. The people behind it are moral relativists and Luciferians (they worship themselves and desire to become godlike). They pursue their goals with the fervor of a religious cult. They believe in what they are doing utterly; with as much conviction as you or I hold in our fight for freedom and accountability.
In America the process is beginning to parallel the leftist movements that ended with Marxist terrorism in Europe and the eventual rise of fascism.
After WWI, leftists engaged in a hurricane of disruption tactics including industrial sabotage, mob intimidation, politically motivated worker strikes, terror attacks, bombings, assassinations, etc. Modern day academics try to paint these tactics as heroic, or at the very least they claim that the actions of Marxists had nothing to do with the European embrace of fascism. This is a lie.
It was, in fact, the constant psychological attacks, economic attacks and direct attacks by far-left groups that made fascism so appealing to common Europeans. Ernst Thalmann, the Stalin-backed leader of the far-left during the last days of Weimar Germany, came to the conclusion that the moderate left was a greater threat than the Nazis. The communists viewed centrist liberals as an impediment to their efforts, much like the woke leftist of today treat moderates as heretics instead of allies. They alienated everybody and made everyone want to work with the fascists.
Of course, Adolph Hitler and Benito Mussolini BOTH openly venerated Karl Marx and his socialist system of governance. Fascism was nothing more than a different flavor of leftist tyranny posing as a solution to leftist tyranny. But for Europeans tired after years of societal division and constant unrest, the fascist message of order was enticing.
Antony Sutton outlines this dichotomy and how globalists helped the Nazis rise to power in his book ‘Wall Street And The Rise Of The Third Reich’.
In other words, the globalists created a Marxist terror campaign across Europe and then used it to drive the public into the arms of another socialist empire in the form of The Third Reich.
In Germany, people supported fascism because they sought to drive out and eliminate the social rot created by Bolshevik relativism (very similar to the rot we see in America today). For instance, sexual degeneracy was rampant in Germany after WWI. The very first transgender clinic was founded in Berlin in 1919. The Marxists lobbied for the legalization of abortion in order to garner more female support.
The rise of the “sexual reformation” was initiated and the 1920s equivalent of the “Gay Pride” movement was born. Pedophiles began to creep out of the woodwork – The concept of underage prostitution and “rent boys” was a notable problem in Berlin.
Questions of personal liberty are fair to argue. But without moderation, psycho-sexual obsessions embraced on a large scale can trigger social collapse. The true intent of any sexual reformation is to normalize cultural and psychological outliers. Weimar Germany in the 1920s was very much like America in the 2020s in this way.
Then there was hyperinflation, economic hardship and vying political factions that drove fear into common Germans. The fascists offered a clear vision, they offered economic prosperity, they offered domestic peace, they offered an end to the morally bankrupt madness of the left, and the public jumped at the chance. It was not a good choice, but it was better to them than allowing a communist takeover.
The globalists have a tendency to attack a target population from two sides, using chaos they control, and then order they control. Marxism plays the role of chaos, and fascism plays the role of order.
Most of us are familiar with the idea of the Hegelian Dialectic. However, I would argue that the situation is much more complex today than it has ever been. There is only one true option; order is the obvious choice. Leftists and globalists must be removed from power.
But how do we avoid doing what the Germans did? How do we remove the leftist threat without diving headfirst into our own brand of totalitarianism? It might not be possible.
There’s the judicial overreach by activist judges to thwart any cuts to the bureaucracy, and the attempts to stop deportations of illegals. There’s steady online threats of assassination and calls for alliances with foreign adversaries and terror groups. Just be ready for bombings, shootings and the rampaging mobs because that’s all coming this summer, I have no doubt.
The risk of martial law being declared is very high if things go the way I suspect they will go, and a majority of the US public will applaud the idea. Donald Trump has taken measures to follow through on every one of his campaign promises so far and I believe that this has earned him the benefit of the doubt. However, if he did call for martial law under the circumstances I describe to expedite matters, conservatives would be falling into a classic government power trap.
Once that door is opened it will be hard to reverse matters, and there’s no guarantee that the right wing will be in control of the machine as it shifts from checks and balances into a streamlined top down autocracy. We almost fell off that cliff under the Biden Administration during covid and it’s a miracle the country is still in one piece.
The scary thing is, beyond the hypothetical risks involved, it’s difficult to argue that martial law is unreasonable. The leftists are making it very hard for us to want to fight for their liberty, and frankly most conservatives would not care if they were shipped off to an isolated island somewhere to cannibalize each other. If you examine how these activists rationalize their violence on social media, one can only conclude that they need to be locked up or booted out of the country. They’re not redeemable.
Their actions are designed to elicit a call of force from conservatives. Then the activists rush to to the global stage and scream “You see! The right wingers really are the fascists we said they were!” The mere act of applying law and order becomes “tyranny” by the definition of the progressives.
In the meantime, a lot of libertarians are still out there in the wilderness searching for a perfect solution in which no one’s rights are stepped on and all viewpoints are respected. I’ve accepted that this is not going to happen. There is no silver bullet, no magically pure society in which everyone leaves everyone else alone. In a war, someone’s rights are going out the window.
It’s a zero sum game for conservatives because the more we accommodate the political left and treat them like fellow citizens rather than an enemy insurgency, the more the US will degrade into chaos. If we respond to them as enemies, crushing them like the bugs they are, then we become the bad guys and potentially welcome in a level of government power that could hurt us all in the end.
My solution is an ugly one and it’s something that most conservative commentators don’t want to touch with a ten foot pole: Instead of relying on government power to stop the political left and the globalists, common Americans should organize and handle the problem independently. This removes the danger of government overreach and constitutional trespass.
The average American is not limited by the constitution, the government is. We don’t have to respect the legal rights of NGOs. We don’t have to give leeway to leftist rioters because we’re afraid of political optics. We don’t have to let globalists operate in the US with impunity and without fear. Keep in mind that the US was NOT founded as a libertine nation where anything goes.
The Founders believed in revolution against tyranny, not revolution against morality. They believed in freedom, as long as it’s freedom WITH responsibility. They believed in rules and order, not anarchy. There’s no way on Earth they would have tolerated leftist and globalist machinations. Neither should we.
When we do act, we have to make sure we don’t create a governmental Golem that ultimately turns on us.
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Overall violent crime up 1.5% over 2023, which itself was a 15-year high.
