End of Day FinancialJuice Market Wrap

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HEADLINES

• US Personal Income (MoM) Dec: 0.30% (est 0.40%; rev prev 0.10%)
• US Real Personal Spending (MoM) Dec: 0.30% (est 0.30%; rev prev 0.20%)
• US PCE Core (YoY) Dec: 1.70% (est 1.70%; rev prev 1.70%)
• EU Parl't Chief Brexit Negotiator Verhofstadt Calls Trump A Threat To EU
• W'ton AG To Lawsuit In Fed Court Against Pres Trump Over Immigration Order
• British PM May: Article 50 Vote Will Be A Simple Decision For MPs
• ECB's Nowotny: Removing QE Too Early Could Hurt Growth
• ECB Asks Several Banks How They Plan To Reduce Problematic Loans
• ECB's Nouy: Italy Has Done Too Little On Banks' Soured Loans
• ESM's Regling: European Bad Bank Likely To Need Public Support
• German CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) Jan P: 1.90% (est 2.00%; prev 1.70%)
• IMF: EU Should Provide Political Incentives To Comply With Budget Rules
• Japan's Abenomics Mastermind Calls For Aggressive Fiscal Policy
• WBA & Rite Aid Enter Into Amendment And Extension To Merger Agreement
• Deutsche Bank Poised To Settle Over Russian 'Mirror Trades'
• UniCredit Says To Miss ECB Capital Goal Ahead Of Cash Call

COMMENTARY

BoJ Rate Announcement Preview (Jan 2017)

The BoJ is not expected to change policy at the first meeting of 2017. Currently the bank conducts JPY 80trln bond purchases annually, targets the 10-year yield at 0.00% and the short-term policy rate is -0.10%. Conditions have seemed to turn in the BoJ’s favour in recent months, while the JPY is also depreciating which should boost inflation and exports.

Recent data releases support the BoJ's view that the economy is in the midst of a "moderate recovery trend." Manufacturing continued to pick up in December, with the Nikkei PMI improving to a 12-month high. Also, a solid pick-up in December consumer confidence-it rose to the highest in more than three years-suggests consumption remains on track to accelerate in 2017.

That effect has not materialised yet however, the most recent inflation figures showed both headline and underlying inflation weakened in December. This was attributed to the lingering effects of last year’s strengthening of the JPY lowering the price of goods. (Read More) 

A Guide to Why the Article 50 Bill Is a Headache for Theresa May

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was hoping to bypass Parliament on when and how to trigger divorce proceedings with the European Union. Then the Supreme Court set her straight. So this week lawmakers discuss for the first time a short bill giving her permission to invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty.

At stake is whether May will meet her self-imposed deadline for starting talks by March 31 and if she’ll have a free hand to negotiate as she wants.

If Parliament does reject the legislation, it could even resuscitate the specter of early elections. (BBG – Read More) 

Coming Up:

23:50 JN Industrial Production (Dec, P)

00:30 AU NAB Business Survey (Dec)

——– JN BoJ Decision

06:30 JN BoJ's Kuroda Holds Press Conference Following MonPol Decision

FILES & LINKS

DATA

• US Personal Income (MoM) Dec: 0.30% (est 0.40%; rev prev 0.10%) – CNBC
• US Personal Spending (MoM) Dec: 0.50% (est 0.50%; prev 0.20%) – CNBC
• US Real Personal Spending (MoM) Dec: 0.30% (est 0.30%; rev prev 0.20%) – CNBC
• US PCE Core (MoM) Dec: 0.10% (est 0.10%; prev 0.00%) – CNBC
• US PCE Core (YoY) Dec: 1.70% (est 1.70%; rev prev 1.70%) – CNBC
• US PCE Deflator (MoM) Dec: 0.20% (est 0.20%; rev prev 0.10%) – CNBC
• US PCE Deflator (YoY) Dec: 1.60% (est 1.70%; prev 1.40%) – CNBC
• US Pending Home Sales (MoM) Dec: 1.60% (est 1.00%; prev -2.50%) – RTRS
• US Pending Home Sales NSA (YoY) Dec: -2.00% (est -0.30%; prev 1.40%) – RTRS
• US Dallas Fed Mfg Activity Index (Jan): 22.1 (est 15.0 rev prev 17.7) – FL
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q117): 2.3%
• German CPI (YoY) Jan, P: 1.90% (est 2.00%; prev 1.70%) – BBG
• German CPI (MoM) Jan, P: -0.60% (est -0.50%; prev 0.70%) – BBG
• German CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) Jan, P: 1.90% (est 2.00%; prev 1.70%) – BBG
• German CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) Jan, P: -0.80% (est -0.70%; prev 1.00%) – BBG
• EuEurozone Consumer Confidence (Jan, F): -4.9 (est -4.9; prev -4.9) – MW
• Eurozone Economic Confidence (Jan): 107.9 (est 107.8; prev 107.8) – MW

GOVERNMENT & CENTRAL BANKS

• EU Parl't Chief Brexit Negotiator Verhofstadt Calls Trump A Threat To EU – Indy
• Washington AG Will File Lawsuit In Fed Court Against Pres Trump Over Immigration Order – ST
• US Treasury Announces Quarterly Borrowing Estimates
• ECB's Nowotny: Removing QE Too Early Could Hurt Growth – RTRS
• ECB Asks Several Banks Plans On How They Plan To Reduce Problematic Loans – RTRS
• ECB's Nouy: Italy Has Done Too Little On Banks' Soured Loans – RTRS
• British PM May: Article 50 Vote Will Be A Simple Decision For MPs – FXS
• EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Verhofstadt: Simply No Deal For UK Without EU Consent – FXS
• SNP Leader Sturgeon: Coming Weeks 'Really Critical' For UK On Brexit – BBC
• German FinMin Schaeuble Pushing For Grexit (Again) If The IMF Decides To Drop Out – Bild
• ESM's Regling: European Bad Bank Likely To Need Public Support – RTRS
• EU Watchdog Calls For EU Bad Bank To Tackle Soured Loans – DM
• IMF: EU Should Provide Political Incentives For Govts To Comply With EU Budget Rules – RTRS
• IMF: Spain Should Deepen Structural Reforms – RTRS
• Japan PM Abe: Hope Next BoJ Gov Holds Same Stance As Kuroda – RTRS
• Japan's Abenomics Mastermind Calls For Aggressive Fiscal Policy – FT

FX

• Trump Immigration Talk Hits Dollar – RTRS
• Mexico Peso Firms To Year High On US Trade Talk Optimism – RTRS

FIXED INCOME

• US Treasurys Mixed Amid Economic Data; Fed In Focus – CNBC
• ECB PSPP (EUR): +16.882B To 1.319T (prev +18.527B To 1.303T)
• ECB CSPP (EUR): +1.929B To 58.815B (prev +2.876B To 56.89B)
• ECB CBPP (EUR): +408M To 207.864B (prev +240M To 207.46B)
• ECB ABSPP (EUR): +529M To 23.512B (prev -8M To 22.983B)
• BoE 3-7 Year Maturity Gilt Buyback Offer-Cover Ratio 4.74 (prev 1.82)
• BoE Pumps GBP 5 Bln Into Firms & GBP 20 Bln Into Banks To Keep Interest Rates Down – Tele
• Microsoft To Issue Biggest Bond Of The Year In Debt Market Boom – FT

COMMODITIES & ENERGY

• Gold Marks First Gain In 5 Sessions As Dow Sinks Below 20,000 – MW
• LME Volumes Plunge As Liquidity Falls During Chinese New Year – FT
• Crude Oil Range-Bound Near $53 – LSE
• Iranian OilMin Zanganeh: Oil Producers Are 'Satisfied' With $55-60/Bbl Crude Price – BW
• Seplat CEO: Nigeria's Trans Forcados Crude Oil Pipeline Could Restart 'End-Q2' – RZ

EQUITIES

• Stocks Slide On Concerns Over Trump's Immigration Policies – CNBC
• WBA & Rite Aid Enter Into Amendment And Extension To Merger Agreement – YF
• European Commission Fires Warning At Facebook Over Fake News – FT
• Starbucks Vows To Hire 10,000 Refugees After Trump Travel Ban – Guardian
• Citigroup To Exit Mortgage Servicing Ops By End Of 2018 – FSM
• Snap Inc. To Choose NYSE For IPO – CAM
• Trump Admin Expected To Approve AT&T-Time Deal With Constraints – Fox
• Investors Press Arconic To Oust CEO Klaus Kleinfeld, Months After Alcoa Separation – WSJ
• Drug Makers Accused Of Fixing Prices On Insulin – NYT
• Fitch: US Bank Earnings Don't Match Optimism Yet
• Moody's: Sprint's Ratings Unchanged After Term Loan Increase
• Deutsche Bank Poised To Settle Over Russian 'Mirror Trades' – RTRS Sources
• UniCredit Says To Miss ECB Capital Goal Ahead Of Cash Call – RTRS
• Lufthansa CEO: In Talks With Etihad Over Possibilities For Deeper Cooperation – WAZ
• Fitch: Revenue Pressure Persists For UBS; Overall Sound Q416
• JX Holdings FY Pretax Profit Seen At Around JPY 300 Bln – Nikkei
• Mazda's Profit Seen Tanking 43% This Fiscal Year – Nikkei

EMERGING MARKETS

• Mexican FinMin Meade Pledges To Defend Free Flow Of USD Remittances From The US – RTRS
• Mexican Central Bank Head Views Peso Drop As Overreaction – HB
• Mexico Sees Signs Of US Change On Wall Payment – YF
• Russian GDP (2016): -0.6% – TASS
• Brazil FinMin Meirelles: 2016 Central Government Deficit Was Better Than Expected – RTRS