Tired of the Commons’ interminable bickering and Theresa May’s ineffectual leadership, Brussels warned last week that the UK will ‘likely’ leave Europe without a withdrawal deal on April 12 after the third ‘meaningful vote’ on May’s withdrawal agreement failed by a margin of 58 votes. Though that margin has shrunk considerably since the first two votes, it’s becoming increasingly clear that there’s no way May can pass the deal, even if she does manage to bring it back for a fourth vote ahead of the emergency Brexit summit that begins on April 10.
What’s worse, an ‘indicative vote’ on Brexit alternatives forced by backbencher MPs last week affirmed the Tory leadership’s suspicions that no alternative to May’s deal could garner a majority of support in the Commons, as none of the eight options on the ballot manged to secure a majority of votes (MPs were asked to vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on each listed option).
Per BBG
Though the indicative vote only further muddied the waters, the Commons is planning to hold another round on Monday, albeit with a slightly different slate of alternatives, as MPs reportedly rally around a ‘softer’ Brexit deal that would call for the UK to remain in the customs union after Brexit Day.
If this, too, fails, the likelihood that May will at least formally call for a general election, an option that she is loathe to consider, will rise. Though most Tories will likely insist that May step down before they support another general vote (last time around, when May called a general election in the summer of 2017, it ended up being perhaps the biggest political miscalculation of her tenure at No. 10).
Even if Monday’s second indicative vote does produce a majority of support for a modified Brexit arrangement, it’s doubtful that the EU would accept it so late in the game. May would likely need to ask for a lengthy Brexit extension – which she may or may not get.
In any event, the pound has rallied on Monday amid reports that at least 40 Tory MPs are preparing to support the customs union alternative, which is also expected to garner support from the opposition.
Debate begins at 3:30 pm (10:30 am ET), with voting expected to start around 8 pm (3 pm). Here are the options that Speaker Bercow is expected to select (text courtesy of CNN):
Motion A, Unilateral right of exit from backstop — This proposes that the UK shall leave the European Union on May 22 with the Withdrawal Agreement amended to allow the UK unilaterally to exit the Northern Ireland backstop.
Motion B, No deal in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement — This alternative calls for support from MPs for a no-deal Brexit if the House has not backed May’s Withdrawal Agreement.
Motion C, Customs Union — This motion calls on the Government to ensure that the Brexit plan includes a permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU.
Motion D, Common Market 2.0 – This proposal wants the Political Declaration – which covers the future relationship between the UK and the EU – to be renegotiated so that the UK joins the European Free Trade Association, through which is retains its membership of the European Economic Area, or Single Market. The UK would also seek to negotiate a “comprehensive customs arrangement” with the EU.
Motion E, Confirmatory public vote – Parliament would not be allowed to ratify any Brexit deal until it has been confirmed by a public poll.
Motion F, Public vote to prevent no deal — Calls for a second referendum on exiting the European Union, if a no-deal scenario appears likely.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Uhg7xq Tyler Durden