Tesla Plunges After Cowen Note Predicts Missed 2019 Delivery Targets

Tesla stock fell as much as 5% in trading on Monday, suffering its biggest drop in nearly a month after Cowen released a note suggesting that the company could miss its delivery target for the year. 

The note suggested that Tesla could deliver 356,000 vehicles for the year, which is slightly below the company’s target of 360,000 to 400,000, according to Bloomberg. 

Cowen’s note said: “Excluding the Netherlands and China, we expect Model 3 deliveries to be down compared to the prior quarter and year-ago period.”

Analyst Jeffrey Osborne’s estimate “highlights the demand saturation we are seeing across most mature markets as we shift from pent-up demand to steady flow demand.”

Cowen also raised its fourth quarter delivery estimate to 101,000 from 95,000 to reflect better expectations for the Netherlands and China. Osborne sees the company missing expectations for Model S/X and posting in-line numbers for Model 3. 

At the same time, Wedbush’s Dan Ives released a note that predicted “Tesla will find success in China with Giga 3 and potentially hit the key 100,000 delivery number quicker than the U.S./Europe trajectory and be a demand tailwind.”

But the market seemed to agree with Cowen on Monday at least, as Tesla stock was clipped 3.7% on the day, closing at $414.60. 

Starting to catch down to bonds’ reality?

Osborne believes there are many issues facing the company, including  “pricing and mix issues that we believe will affect margins and profitability in the fourth quarter”. He’s also skeptical about long-term demand in China, where we have noted an electric vehicle supply glut is likely in the midst of taking place. 

Cowen notes that the best selling EV in China this year “has sold less than 2,000 vehicles per week and the top 5 models (all local brands) combined for less than 6,000 vehicles per week.” These models cost about 25% to 75% less than what the China made Model 3 will cost. 

“While Tesla has built a very dedicated fan base that has been willing to excuse poor build quality, customer service, and service infrastructure, we continue to be skeptical around broader adoption,” Osborne concluded, slapping a price target of $210 on the stock.

Will Osborne be the trend setter for analysts now that Tesla stock has hit the stratosphere, or will the company continue to elude reality? As the year wraps up, it won’t be long before we know whether or not their prognostication holds water. Tick tock, Elon.