In France, The Center Is (Just About) Holding…

Whilst the polls, ahead of the French presidential election run-off on Sunday, have moved in President Macron’s favor – with a lead beyond the margin of error now – it’s clear there’s been a broad erosion of the traditional center in French politics, just as we’ve seen elsewhere.

In fact, as Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid noted Friday, in the first round just a couple of weeks ago, populist movements of both left and right won over 50% of the vote, including Marine Le Pen on 23%, the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon on 22%, and the far-right Éric Zemmour on 7%.

By contrast, the traditional centre-left and centre-right parties won less than 7% of the vote between them, having shared the presidency for decades up to Macron’s arrival.

This echoes the broader rise in voter volatility across Europe.

At the German federal election last September, it marked the first time since the war that the two biggest parties failed to win a majority of the vote between them.

And in Italy, the largest party in Parliament (the Five Star Movement) was only founded back in 2009.

So even though the result on Sunday looks set to be a mainstream one (if you believe the polls), don’t underestimate the huge changes under the surface in European politics over the last decade.

They still may have big ramifications for elections in the years ahead…

…and that’s before we even start talking about the 2024 US election!