Polarizing Politicians

By Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank

The death of media mogul and politician Silvio Berlusconi yesterday ends one of the most colourful and polarizing careers of the modern age. 

He was Italy’s PM in four governments. In September 2022 he was elected to the Senate following a previous six-year ban on holding public office due to a conviction for tax fraud.  He was also a former owner of AC Milan.  Despite this, he will be remembered by many as a womanizer and for the frequent scandals that accompanied him.  

Almost inevitably the comparisons between Trump and Berlusconi have been coming thick and fast. Both have had a strong reliance on TV to further their careers, both have marketed themselves as self-made businessmen and both have ridden several scandals.

The former US president has spent the night in Miami ahead of today’s court appearance where he faces charges of mishandling security files.

Despite the severity of the charges, Trump has rallied his supporters by accusing President Biden of weaponizing the legal system against his political opponent.  Polls indicate that Trump remains the front runner for the Republican nomination ahead of the 2024 US Presidential election. 

The UK has also had its own version of a polarizing politician in the form of former PM Johnson. 

Yesterday, UK PM Rishi Sunak was probably aiming for a few constructive headlines as he pushed London forward as a major tech hub. Unfortunately for him, the accusations from his predecessor that he was ‘talking rubbish’ made for a bigger splash.

Having resigned as an MP at the end of last week, it would have been uncharacteristic to expect that Johnson would have gone quietly.  The ex-PM quit after he was given the findings of an investigation into the ‘Partygate’ scandal (concerning the breaking of lockdown rules).  This was focused on whether Johnson has purposely misled parliament and may have recommended a lengthy suspension for him from the House of Commons. The news came the same day that Sunak approved Johnson’s honours list, as is the practise for former PMs. This included more than 40 appointments to the House of Lords and other rewards for some of his closest allies from the time of the Partygate scandal.  The House of Lords Appointments Commission blocked some of the peerages.

Yesterday Sunak claimed that Johnson had requested that he overrule the Commission and that he had refused on the basis that he “didn’t think it was right”.  Johnson reacted angrily and in doing so reminded the electorate of the squabbles and drama that had been so characteristic of his leadership. The Labour Party is expected to claim Johnson’s parliamentary seat in the by-election triggered by his resignation. Two more by-elections were triggered over the weekend by the resignation of a couple of the ex-PM’s allies.  The Tories are expected to retain at least one of these, though Sunak’s attempt to persuade the electorate that he has ‘taken back control’ has taken a hit.  Polls indicate that Labour is on course to win the UK general election which is expected before the end of next year.

On the issue of technology, Sunak claimed that he wanted “to make the UK not just the intellectual home, but the global AI safety regulation”. 

He had returned from a trip to Washington last week where he reportedly received the backing of President Biden to host an AI summit. 

In March, the UK government committed “around GBP1 bln of funding” for the next generation of supercomputing and AI research “to establish the UK as a science and technology superpower”.