National Economic Activity Unexpectedly Declined In December; Chicago Fed Index Shows

Against expectations of a small rise from 0.03 to 0.06, The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (which draws on 85 economic indicators) tumbled to -0.15 in December. 2023 ends with 8 of the 12 months in negative territory…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, 48 of the 85 inputs made a negative contribution with all major subcategories weaker MoM and only personal consumption barely above zero…

• Production and Income -0.06

• Employment -0.06

• Personal Consumption +0.01

• Sales & Orders -0.04

CFNAI’s Diffusion Index remains significantly weak…

This indicates below-trend-growth in the national economy and a sign of easing pressures on future inflation