US Home Prices Rose For 10th Straight Month In November, But Gains Slow Significantly

Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities rose for the 10th straight month in November (the latest data released by S&P Global Case-Shiller today), up 0.15% MoM (considerably slower than the 0.50% MoM expected and 0.63% prior).

That is the weakest MoM rise since Jan 2023.

Source: Bloomberg

That pushed the YoY price up to +5.40% (but well below the +5.8% exp)…

“November’s year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023, with our National Composite rising 5.1% and the 10-city index rising 6.2%,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P DJI.

Six cities registered a new all-time high price in November – Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York, and Cleveland.

Portland is the only city with prices dropping YoY – who could have seen that coming?

Is this really what Jay and his pals were expecting when they embarked on an unprecedented tightening of monetary policy?

But, judging by the resumption of the rise of mortgage rates since the Case-Shiller data was created, we would expect prices to also resume their decline in the short-term…

Are prices set to shrink again (as the lag on Case-Shiller data and human’s response to rates) before re-accelerating later this year?