Is The West Plotting A False Flag Provocation In Poland To Blame On Russia & Belarus

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Poland might very well be put up by its dual American-German patrons into carrying out a possible false flag provocation in order to generate popular support for the bloc’s rapid militarization plans aimed at building “Fortress Europe”.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said during a large meeting with the senior staff of his national security agencies on Tuesday that their Western counterparts are plotting a false flag provocation in Poland. According to his sources, it’ll be aimed against civilians there and be blamed on Russia and Belarus. This builds upon what KGB Chairman Ivan Tertel warned about in December, which in turn was an expansion of what Lukashenko himself raised awareness of in June.

The Belarusian leader warned about Belgorod-like terrorist incursions from Poland last summer, but then his aforementioned security chief hinted a few months back that this could be prompted by a false flag incident similar to the one that started World War II. On the subject of world wars, Lukashenko also said during his speech on Tuesday that “Now we are literally covered with an information wave of the so-called premonition of the third world war. There are grounds for concern.”

About 32,000 NATO troops have deployed in the vicinity of Russia and Belarus for the bloc’s “Steadfast Defender 2024” drills, the largest such ones since the end of the Old Cold War over three decades ago, while another 60,000 or so are training elsewhere in Europe right now. In this tense context, the possible false flag provocation in Poland that he warned about could set World War III into motion if cooler heads in the West don’t call it off or can’t de-escalate the crisis that would be sparked afterwards.

Whether in connection with that scenario or independently thereof, Lukashenko also detailed three plots that hostile intelligence services are cooking up with the Western-backed and foreign-based Belarusian opposition that largely resides in neighboring Poland. He already revealed last week that they’re planning territorial revisions in the event that Moscow is dealt a strategic defeat in Ukraine, which would restore Poland’s interwar borders and compensate Belarus with parts of western Russia.

According to him, the first scenario involves an attempted Color Revolution or other kind of coup during this weekend’s parliamentary elections, though he said that the West assesses the likelihood of repeating the dark days of summer 2020 to be very low.

That’s why he believes that they’ll focus on the second scenario of delegitimizing the state on the pretext of supposedly falsified parliamentary elections in order to prepare for a more robust destabilization attempt during next year’s presidential elections.

That’ll also fail too, Lukashenko predicted, so he’s instead bracing himself for the third scenario of continued soft power operations that have actually been ongoing since Belarus became independent. It’s relevant here to mention what he also said about how Poland is ramping up efforts to recruit high-ranking Belarusian officials, including through bribery, blackmail, and threats against their family. Another point that he made was to warn about the West’s Polish-centric geostrategic plans in the region.

In his words, “there are attempts to launch new regional initiatives abroad that will be controlled by the United States and the European Union. The plan is incredibly primitive. They should include ‘neutral’ Ukraine and Belarus in addition to Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia. In line with this plan, Belarus will be ‘cut off’ from Russia. Of course, Minsk is viewed as a satellite of Poland. Does this remind you of anything?”

Put differently, this is the weaponization of Poland’s “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI).

Warsaw’s previous conservative-nationalist government envisaged utilizing that integration platform to establish a sphere of influence that could then restore Poland’s long-lost Great Power status, after which they’d balance between Germany and Russia with the US’ support for divide-and-rule purposes. Now that Poland’s new government has subordinated itself to Germany in all respects, the 3SI will instead be exploited as an instrument of German hegemony for accelerating the construction of “Fortress Europe”.

The US supports the resumption of Germany’s superpower trajectory because it believes that this is the most effective way for containing Russia in Europe, which can then free up some of its forces that are there to redeploy to Asia for more muscularly containing China on the other side of the supercontinent. Although Germany and the rest of the EU are militarizing like never before, they’re still struggling to convince taxpayers that this should be more of a priority than investing in the socio-economic sphere.

Therein lies one of the ulterior reasons behind the possible false flag provocation in Poland that Lukashenko warned about because the subsequent escalation of NATO-Russian tensions could be exploited to convince Europeans that they need to “sacrifice their welfare for the greater good”. This risky gamble assumes that tensions will remain manageable and that no hot war will break out by miscalculation, thus making it extremely dangerous and explaining why it could still be called off.

In the event that something of the sort materializes exactly as Lukashenko spoke about, however, then observers shouldn’t be fooled by the predictable Mainstream Media narrative into thinking that Belarus and/or Russia were responsible. Rather, it would have been a US- and German-approved operation for scaring the continental populace into fully submitting to those two’s plans for accelerating the construction of “Fortress Europe” exactly as the new Berlin-backed Polish government already has done.

With these interconnected strategic-narrative dynamics in mind, Lukashenko’s warnings should be taken seriously because they make sense in this context. Poland might very well be put up by its dual patrons into carrying out a possible false flag attack against Belarus in order to generate popular support for the bloc’s rapid militarization plans.

If tensions prove unmanageable and spiral out of control afterwards, however, then World War III could break out by miscalculation in the worst-case scenario.