ADP Employment Report Sees Wage-Growth Re-Accelerating In Feb

Expectations were for a modest bounce in ADP’s Employment report data in February from +107k in January to +150k, but the data disappointed at +140k (from an upwardly revised +111k)…

Source: Bloomberg

“Job gains remain solid. Pay gains are trending lower but are still above inflation,” said Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist.

“In short, the labor market is dynamic, but doesn’t tip the scales in terms of a Fed rate decision this year.”

Job gains in Services once again dominated Goods-Producing firms, but both saw increases in February…

Source: Bloomberg

Mining and Information Services sectors saw job losses…

For job-changers, year-over-year pay gains were 7.6 percent, up from the prior month and the first increase since November 2022.

Pay gains for job-stayers continued to decelerate, reaching 5.1 percent, the smallest gain since August 2021.

Finally, we note that ADP has under-estimated BLS’s version of the truth for the last six months…and it’s getting worse.

Source: Bloomberg

So, with this kind of labor market, can The Fed maintain the illusion of rate-cuts at some point this year? What will Powell say today?