Trump-Endorsed Moreno Wins Bigly In Ohio GOP Senate Primary

In the latest proof of the power of a Donald Trump endorsement, Bernie Moreno handily won a bitter, three-way battle for the GOP’s Ohio Senate nomination on Tuesday. He now advances to the November election, in which the Bogota, Columbia-born businessman hopes to unseat Sen. Sherrod Brown. The primary outcome is pleasing to many Democrats, who think Moreno is the easier general-election opponent. 

“I want to thank President Trump, for all he did for me, for this campaign, for his unwavering support, for his love of this country,” said Moreno on Tuesday night, having won every county in the state. Trump made a surprise visit to Ohio over the weekend to give car-dealer and blockchain entrepreneur Moreno a final boost across the finish line — but it doesn’t look like he needed it. 

With 94% of the votes tallied, Moreno had 50.5% of the vote, compared to just 32.9% for Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan and 16.6% for Ohio Secretary of State Frank La Rose. Dolan was the establishment pick, wielding endorsements from former Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman. The son of the MLB Cleveland Guardians owner, Dolan also outspent Trump to no avail. 

Take note that Moreno handily outpaced his polling. The final Emerson College poll had Moreno winning, but taking only 38% of the vote — a whopping 12% below his actual performance. Aside from any potential failings of the pollsters, it appears the undecided vote broke overwhelmingly for Moreno. 

America-First candidate Bernie Moreno wins the GOP primary for U.S. Senate here in Ohio. Very proud of my home state for getting this one right. The real destination is defeating Sherrod Brown in November. We’ve got your back, @berniemoreno! 🇺🇸 https://t.co/7YxDCYTmA4

— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) March 20, 2024

Trump isn’t the only one who’s happy with the outcome. Many Democrats think Moreno presents the best general election match-up — to such an extent they poured millions into advertising intended to boost Moreno in the GOP primary. 

For example, the Democrat Duty and Country PAC spent more than $2.5 million to run an ad that cut two ways — highlighting Moreno attributes that would enthuse conservatives and repulse leftists. Beyond tightly linking him to Trump and quoting the former president’s endorsement, the ad called Moreno “too conservative,” and spotlit his positions against abortion and Obamacare. The ad concluded, “Donald Trump needs Moreno. Ohio doesn’t.” 

Crowd filling in overflow area for Trump rally for Senate candidate Bernie Moreno at Dayton, Ohio. Rep. Jim Jordan speaking. pic.twitter.com/YGAORxVg2y

— Kristinn Taylor (@KristinnFR) March 16, 2024

Seventy-one-year-old incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown is chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. In Sean Trende’s recent analysis of the 10 Senate seats the GOP is most likely to flip, Brown’s came in third: 

Brown is probably too liberal for the modern Buckeye State, and he’ll have to convince around one in 10 Trump voters to split their tickets. This is within tolerance – Susan Collins pulled this off in reverse in 2020 – but it is still rare. Brown only won by seven points against an underfunded opponent in 2018, but whoever the GOP candidate is will probably not have to worry about money. Trump endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno, much to the state GOP’s dismay, but this is a state that voted for a similarly untested, controversial candidate in 2022 over Brown’s political heir. Brown can win, but he’s in trouble.

Some observers anticipate that, for better or worse, Moreno will make his anti-abortion stance a central thrust of his campaign. That strikes us as dicey: In November, Ohio voters approved a constitutional amendment that established “an individual right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions, including but not limited to abortion.” The measure easily won by a 57% to 43% margin. 

Looking at the big picture, the Ohio race may not be essential to a GOP takeover: 

Watch: Steve Kornacki shows Joe Scarborough how Democrats are almost certain to lose the senate in November:

“Even if Sherrod Brown were to win Ohio, they’re still below 50” pic.twitter.com/457CYXVxwV

— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) March 19, 2024