Bullion, Bitcoin, & Banks Soar As ‘Trump Trade’ Dominates Data This Week

A dip in ‘soft’ data was overwhelmed by a resurgence in ‘hard’ data this week…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that ‘no landing’ narrative-builder pushed rate-cut expectations down for 2024 (but dovishly higher for 2025)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, under the surface of the markets is one narrative that even the MSM is struggling to battle with their lies!! The ‘Trump Trade’ is on like Donkey Kong...

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, it’s more than just a Trump victory, a “Red Sweep” is starting to emerge as a strong possibility…

Another low quality rally kept stocks propped into the weekend, according to Goldman trading desk with Small Caps leading the week strongly while Nasdaq ended unchanged…

The Small Caps gain was all short squeeze (and gamma squeeze)…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks were big winners this week while Energy stocks lagged huuuuge. Tech was unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX declined this week as various ‘event’ risk catalysts (and OpEx) fell off the books…

Source: Bloomberg

…but vol is set to rise into the election and FOMC…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a very chaotic (and holiday shortened) week, Treasury yields ended only marginally changed with the long-end modestly outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

With the 2Y Yield hitting 4.00% and back down while the 10Y yield dipped below 4.00% midweek, only to push back to the highs of the week this morning…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ripped above $2700 for a new record high this week…

Source: Bloomberg

…and Silver rallied for the fifth week in the last six, breaking above $33 to close at its highest since Dec 2012

Source: Bloomberg

…Silver is outperforming gold in recent weeks (which should come as no surprise to professional subscribers)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued its charge higher this week, back to near July highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The correlation between gold and the dollar is soaring to its highest since March 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin also ripped to its highest ‘close’ since June, nearing $70,000 this morning…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum continues to lag its big brother in crypto, erasing almost all of the DeFi boom outperformance…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices plunged significantly this week (with two big legs down) pushing WTI back below $70. This was the worst week for crude in over a year…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, all the prediction markets are bid for a Trump/Republican victory in November (but the ‘polls’ still favor Harris)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and of course, the MSM cry foul… somehow believing that this is ‘manipulated’ (as a reminder, in a market, there are buyers and sellers… why not ‘manipulate’ that ‘market’ back your way if you don’t agree with the price?)…

The UBS Republican vs Democrat Index just hit an all time high. Must be manipulated too? pic.twitter.com/sR5Yf4mmqo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 18, 2024

…but then again, we are probably the last people to claim that stocks are not rigged too…