October Surprise: ADP Employment Report Signals Six-Sigma Beat (A Week Before Elections)

With the election right around the corner, we simply can’t imagine a ‘bad’ employment print… and sure enough… ADP’s Employment Report shows the addition of 233k jobs in October (more than double the 111k addition expected) and September was revised higher…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest monthly addition since July 2023… and a six sigma beat of expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

Service-providing jobs surged at their fastest pace since July 2023 while goods-producing job growth slowed…

Source: Bloomberg

“Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October. As we round out the year, hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly resilient,” says Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers dipped to 4.6 percent, continuing a two-year slowdown. For job-changers, pay gains slowed to 6.2 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as a reminder, ADP has underestimated the official BLS data for 12 of the last 14 months…

Source: Bloomberg

This is not what The Fed doves wants to see…

Source: Bloomberg

…but will they cut under Trump?