As DB’s Jim Reid points out, it was definitely not the easiest start to the year with many global equity markets suffering from their worst January in a post-Lehman world.
The S&P 500 (-5.0%), the Dow (-5.4%), and the Nikkei (-8.0%) posted their worst January returns since 2009. Similarly for the Stoxx600 (-6.3%) and Hang Seng (-10.2%) it was also their worst since 2008. The ‘January effect’ was certainly missing in action this year although curiously it has been missing over the last 3 years. The last time we saw a positive January start to the year for the S&P 500 was in 2013 (for a further technical analysis what a poor January means see “As Goes January”… What Happens When Bullish Seasonals Fail).
In terms of the specifics, only 17 out of the 39 global asset benchmarks that DB tracks managed to avoid finishing the month in the red in January. Of the 17 that were up so far on a total return basis, 12 were fixed income indices (core rates or IG credit) although Gold (+5.3%) did deliver its best performance since January last year. Indeed Gilts (+3.8%), Bunds (+2.5%) and US Treasuries (+2.2%) were the main outperformers which have helped IG from a total returns perspective. IG excess returns were negative though on both sides of the Atlantic as spreads finished the month wider. Indeed HY benchmarks, which are less sensitive to rates, finished the month lower. January also marks the third and second consecutive monthly decline for US HY (-1.2%) and European HY (-1.4%), respectively.
The other end of the performance spectrum was mostly dominated by equities and oil. Chinese equities had bad start to the year with the A-share index nearly down 23%. This was followed by Stoxx600 Banks (-15%), FTSE MIB (-13%), Greek equities (-12%), and the Hang Seng (-10%). The worst performer could have been Oil if not for bounce last week. Brent for example would have been down 27% had it not recovered from its intra-month lows. It eventually settled at -6.6% for the month.
Here is the January performance in local currency terms:
And when rebased in dollar terms:
Source: DB
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1P0nwG9 Tyler Durden