Yellen Warns Of Excessive Risk-Taking In Testimony, Says Hike “Appropriate Soon”, No Mention Of Election

Before we get into Janet Yellen’s prepared remarks to be delivered at 10am before the Join Economic Committee, which is seen by the market as an opportunity by the Fed chair to signal whether the central bank is likely to raise interest rates at its Dec. 13-14 meeting, here is a framework of 5 key items to look for courtesy of the WSJ.

1.  December Signal

All ears will be listening for Ms. Yellen to affirm recent statements from her colleagues that the Fed remains on track for a December rate increase. Officials signaled after their last meeting that they were getting closer to lifting rates, and needed only a little more evidence that the economy was improving to convince them to move next month. She could point to a handful of indicators the Fed has received since its Nov. 1-2 meeting: employers continued to add jobs at a steady clip in October, annual wage gains accelerated at the fastest pace since June 2009 and consumer spending at retail stores advanced at a healthy pace this fall.

2. Election Fallout

Several Fed officials raised concerns before their November meeting about the possibility for market volatility following the presidential election. Many investors were stunned by Donald Trump’s victory, but stocks have rallied on hopes that the new administration’s policies will boost economic growth along with inflation and interest rates. Still, lawmakers will likely want Ms. Yellen’s view of the market’s reaction – including a rise in government bond yields.

3. Trump Effect

Ms. Yellen will likely be asked to weigh in on the potential economic effects of Mr. Trump’s proposed fiscal policies, including plans to boost infrastructure spending and slash taxes. While the Fed is often reluctant to comment on legislation, there is precedent for Fed chairmen signaling their approval for fiscal stimulus. Central-bank officials have made clear in recent years that they need Congress’s help to further boost economic growth. But some officials have warned that a surge in spending could force Fed officials to raise interest rates faster than they currently expect.

4. Fed Independence

The Fed could face significant political pressure next year under a Trump administration. Republican efforts to alter the Fed’s operations and subject it to greater congressional scrutiny have gained broader support in recent years, and Mr. Trump has made no secret of his disapproval of the Fed. Expect Ms. Yellen to make the case against those efforts, which she has said would erode the Fed’s independence and subject it to political interference that could ultimately harm the economy.

5. Inflation Firming

Republicans on Capitol Hill have complained for years that the Fed’s easy money policies could push inflation up to dangerous levels, but price increases have remained subdued. Recent signs of firming inflation could give GOP lawmakers a new opening to press Ms. Yellen on the Fed’s low-rate policies. Fed officials said in their November policy statement that inflation has “increased somewhat since earlier this year.” They also noted that some investors’ expectations of future inflation “have moved up but remain low.” Ms. Yellen could offer new insight Thursday into how officials view the risk of a sharp upturn in inflation.

With that out of the way, here are the highlights from Yellen’s speech courtesy of Bloomberg and MarketNews:

  • YELLEN SAYS RATE HIKE COULD BE APPROPRIATE `RELATIVELY SOON’
  • YELLEN SAYS KEEPING RATES ON HOLD COULD SPUR EXCESS RISK-TAKING
  • YELLEN: CURRENT MON POL STANCE IS ‘MODERATELY ACCOMMODATIVE’
  • YELLEN: DELAYING HIKES TOO LONG COULD MEAN TIGHTENING FASTER
  • YELLEN: SEES SCOPE FOR SOME FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN LABOR MKT
  • YELLEN: RISK OF FALLING BEHIND CURVE ‘APPEARS LIMITED’
  • YELLEN: CURRENT MON POL STANCE IS ‘MODERATELY ACCOMMODATIVE’
  • YELLEN: APPEARS TO BE SCOPE FOR SOME MORE LABOR-MARKET GAIN
  • YELLEN: FOMC MUST REMAIN FORWARD LOOKING IN SETTING POLICY
  • YELLEN: EXPECTS ECONOMIC GROWTH TO CONTINUE AT ‘MODERATE PACE’

Perhaps just as notably, there was no mention of the presidential election, despite watchers looking for further insight into what the Fed thinks of Trump.

More details from Reuters:

The Federal Reserve could raise U.S. interest rates “relatively soon” if economic data keeps pointing to an improving labor market and rising inflation, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday in a clear hint the U.S. central bank could hike next month.

 

Yellen said Fed policymakers at their meeting earlier in November judged that the case for a rate hike had strengthened.

 

“Such an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon,” Yellen said in prepared remarks that were her first public comments since the United States elected Republican Donald Trump to be the country’s next president.

 

Yellen, who was to deliver the remarks to lawmakers at 10 a.m. on Thursday, said the economy appeared on track to grow moderately, which would help bring about full employment and push inflation up and toward the Fed’s 2 percent target.

 

She said current interest rate policy is stimulating economic output but the economy still has “a bit more room to run.”

 

She said at this point she feels there is only a small risk the Fed is behind the curve on inflation, warranting only a gradual increase in the federal funds rate

* * *

Her full testimony to be delivered today at 10am is below (link).

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Confusion Reigns Ahead Of Trump’s Meeting With Japanese Prime Minister

Having previously met with Nigel Farage and gotten a congratulatory phone call from Vladimir Putin, together followed by a more cautious, “warning” greeting from China president Xi Jinping, today the Trump story advances with the President-elect meeting his first world leader post the election with Japan’s Abe passing through town.

On the surface, the diplomatic talking point are familiar: Abe said on Thursday that he wants to build a relationship of trust when he meets Trump, stressing that the two-way alliance is the core of Tokyo’s diplomacy and security. The U.S.-Japan alliance “is the cornerstone of Japan’s diplomacy and security. Only when there is trust does an alliance come alive,” Abe told reporters before leaving Tokyo, Kyodo news agency reported.

However, before any “cornerstones” are rededicated, there appears to be a problem: as Reuters reports, details about the meeting remain unclear, with Trump’s transition team not responding to requests for comment on the meeting. As of last night, Japanese officials said they had not finalized when or where in New York it would take place, who would be invited, or in some cases whom to call for answers. Perhaps Abe will make an appearance at the Trump Tower?

Trump has spurred worries in Tokyo and beyond with his comments on the possibility of Japan acquiring nuclear arms and demands that allies pay more for the upkeep of U.S. forces on their soil or face the possibility of their withdrawal.

“Prime Minister Abe will definitely talk about the importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance and that alliance is not only for Japan and the United States, but also for the entire Indo-Pacific region as well as world politics,” Abe adviser Katsuyuki Kawai told Reuters. Kawai said he had spoken to several Trump advisers and lawmakers since arriving in Washington on Monday and had been told “we don’t have to take each word that Mr. Trump said publicly literally”.

The Trump adviser said he expected Trump would reaffirm “the American commitment to being in the Pacific long-term.” The adviser said Japan’s financial support for U.S. troops in Japan might come up but was unlikely to be a focus.

An adviser to Trump, speaking anonymously because he was not authorized to speak to media, told Reuters earlier this week that Trump would seek to reassure Abe and other Asian allies rattled by his campaign rhetoric.

Even if the two leaders find a quiet corner in which to speak, it is unlikely that much progress will be made: before Trump makes key cabinet appointments, it will be hard to assess his policies on issues ranging from overseas deployments of U.S. troops, China’s maritime aggressiveness in Asia and North Korea’s nuclear threat.

Additionally, unlike Trump’s meeting with Farage, there are key difference between Abe, a political blue blood and veteran lawmaker, and Trump, a brash outsider with no diplomatic or government experience. Trump’s election also has dashed hopes for U.S. approval of a 12-nation trade pact, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a linchpin of Washington’s “pivot” to Asia and a pillar of Abe’s economic reforms. It has also shifted the political balance of power in Asia in China’s court, a transition which has alarmed the Abe cabinet.

However, there is a chance that the two may also find they have much in common, including pledges to restore their countries’ global stature and a desire to counter a rising China while improving relations with Russia.

But most curious will be whether Trump will allow the press to be present: the early “relations” between the president-Elect and the media which widely panned his presidential chances indicate substantial tension, and it is possible that relations between the two camps will only escalate in the coming days.

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Frontrunning: November 17

  • Dollar halts charge as bashed bonds steady (Reuters)
  • BOJ Fires Warning at Bond Market With Unlimited Buying Plan (BBG)
  • Trump Flouts Traditions Heading Into an Office Defined by Them (BBG)
  • Mr. Hedge Fund Goes to Washington, Looking for Ally in Trump (BBG)
  • Donald Trump’s Son-in-Law, Jared Kushner, Could Get Key White House Role (WSJ)
  • U.S. panel urges ban on China state firms buying U.S. companies (Reuters)
  • Why Bond Vigilantes Are Stirring in Age of Trump: QuickTake Q&A (BBG)
  • AT&T Deal to Test Business Climate Under Trump (WSJ)
  • Theranos Whistleblower Shook the Company—And His Family (WSJ)
  • Republicans Now Control Record Number of State Legislative Chambers (CNSNews)
  • Mexico central bank may deliver big rate hike after peso’s Trump tumble (Reuters)
  • The Strange Consequences of India’s Banknote Ban (BBG)
  • Yellen Will Talk Trump in Thursday’s Testimony (BBG)
  • Yellen Likely to Be Questioned on Impact of Election (WSJ)
  • The NSA’s Spy Hub in New York, Hidden in Plain Sight (Intercept)
  • Apple Wants Cutting-Edge iPhone Screens, But Most Suppliers Aren’t Ready  (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank could seek repayment of manager bonuses: sources (Reuters)
  • Brazil arrests former Rio governor in corruption probe: police (Reuters)
  • China’s interference in Hong Kong reaching alarming levels: U.S. congressional panel (Reuters)
  • Russia starts blocking LinkedIn website after court ruling (Reuters)
  • Philippines’ Duterte says may follow Russia’s withdrawal from ‘useless’ ICC (Reuters)
  • EU delays ChemChina/Syngenta merger decision to March 29 (Reuters)
  • Merkel expected to say on Sunday if she’ll run for office in 2017 (Reuters)
  • U.S. opens door to oil exports after year of pressure (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Donald Trump’s son-in-law, who became a close adviser in the presidential campaign, is likely to take a top White House job, people familiar with the presidential transition say. http://on.wsj.com/2f22ucL

– Tyler Shultz says he wanted to shield the reputation of former Secretary of State George Shultz, a Theranos director and his grandfather. His efforts opened a rift in the family. http://on.wsj.com/2fXhYiS

– President-elect Donald Trump is making overtures to Democrats as his transition efforts ramp up, meeting with New York Mayor Bill de Blasio and signaling support for a public-works building program similar to one his partisan opponents have long favored. http://on.wsj.com/2eHGKYn

– China’s currency dropped to the lowest level in eight years Wednesday, extending a rapid decline over the course of a few days and demonstrating what officials and analysts say is the government’s increasing tolerance of a cheaper yuan as it combats a lagging economy and growing asset bubbles. http://on.wsj.com/2fVnpjJ

– Businesses will watch to see if phone giant AT&T Inc can push its merger with Time Warner Inc through a still-undefined presidency. Cabinet appointments will help determine the outcome. http://on.wsj.com/2eGzOLe

– The Minnesota police officer who fatally shot a legally armed black motorist during a traffic stop in a Twin Cities suburb has been charged with second-degree manslaughter, Ramsey County Attorney John Choi said Wednesday. http://on.wsj.com/2ghkq8i

– Facebook Inc said it has uncovered several more flawed measurements related to how consumers interact with content, raising more questions about the metrics marketers lean on to decide whether to buy ads on the social media network. http://on.wsj.com/2ggxPxx

 

FT

Saudi Arabia is set to disclose how much crude lies beneath the desert kingdom’s sands as it prepares to sell shares in Saudi Aramco.

Japanese internet retailer Rakuten Inc signed a new four-year deal with Barcelona worth at least 220 million euros ($235.40 million), sealing one of the world’s largest football shirt sponsorships.

Rio Tinto Plc’s former head of energy and mineral division Alan Davies said he “has been left with no option but to take the strongest possible legal action in response” to his dismissal.

Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc warned there were challenging conditions ahead for its marine and industrial engine businesses. However, the company said it was on track to meet profit expectations for this year.

 

NYT

– Congressional Democrats, divided and struggling for a path from the electoral wilderness, are constructing an agenda to align with many proposals of President-elect Donald Trump that put him at odds with his own party. http://nyti.ms/2fyMHWX

– An emotional Hillary Clinton on Wednesday asked her supporters not to lose heart after a crushing election loss and to continue working for a better country. http://nyti.ms/2fyH0be

– President-elect Donald Trump said his transition was not in disarray, assailing news media reports about firings and infighting and insisting in an early-morning Twitter burst that everything was going “so smoothly”. http://nyti.ms/2fyMLpw

– Over the past few months, a laid-off Wal-Mart employee named Wang Shishu, has helped organize a national movement in China against the retail giant. http://nyti.ms/2fyOniO

– The federal authorities will announce a roughly $264 million settlement with the JP Morgan Chase and its Hong Kong subsidiary, according to people briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity. tp://nyti.ms/2fyG7zq

– Wall Street banks are still too big to fail, and the hundreds of thousands of pages of regulations created in the eight years since the crisis are not adequate protection against another financial shock, says Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. http://nyti.ms/2fyOZp1

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Bombardier Inc raised $1.4 billion in its first return to the bond market in 21 months, refinancing some debt and buying more time for its turnaround plan. https://tgam.ca/2fzkaQP

** The Bank of Canada says it won’t necessarily move in lockstep with the Federal Reserve if the U.S. central bank moves to hike its key interest rate next month, as widely expected. https://tgam.ca/2fzoJdT

** A committee of Performance Sports Group Ltd’s shareholders has filed a legal objection to a proposed auction of the insolvent company’s assets, arguing the bidding structure makes it too hard for anyone to compete with an offer tabled by a group led by Sagard Capital Partners LP. https://tgam.ca/2fzkUW1

** Finance Minister Bill Morneau says Canada is ready to discuss difficult trade issues with the new U.S. administration, including softwood lumber and livestock, and he is confident of finding a “win-win” solution. https://tgam.ca/2fzmWW6

NATIONAL POST

** The International Energy Agency’s latest World Energy Outlook expects Canadian output to grow to 6.1 million bpd by 2040 if governments stick to their Paris agreement pledges – but that is 1.5 million bpd lower than the IEA’s “Current Policies Scenario”, which assumes there are no new international policy measures to combat climate change. http://bit.ly/2fzlmDH

** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was foolish to signal his willingness to re-negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, former U.S. senator and Donald Trump insider Rick Santorum said on Wednesday. http://natpo.st/2fzeiHn

** Canada and Cuba are on a good footing to enhance an already-good relationship with a visit to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau this week, say experts, despite uncertainty around the policy of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump. http://natpo.st/2fzlfbg

 

Britain

The Times

* Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Warren East, whose company’s shares have fallen 27 percent since April last year, said to investors that after thousands of job cuts, including hundreds in senior management, he is focusing his attention on the company’s future strategy. http://bit.ly/2f22pWm

* UK’s Financial Conduct Authority said Wednesday that they would put safeguards in place before launching a new savings product, Lifetime Isas, for the under-40s just days after it was dubbed as ‘a mis-selling scandal waiting to happen.’ http://bit.ly/2f260UB

The Guardian

* Labour party parliamentarian Frank Field, also the chairman of the House of Commons work and pensions select committee, has asked HM Revenue & Customs for an immediate probe into tax avoidance scheme used by recruitment agencies that is depriving the taxpayer of “hundreds of millions” of pounds. http://bit.ly/2f2079Z

* Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc could face a settlement of more than $12 billion in a decade old mis-selling scandal in the United States, said the UK Financial Investments, which controls the taxpayer’s stake in RBS, to the Treasury Select Committee. http://bit.ly/2f1XTXX

The Telegraph

* Rio Tinto Plc has fired two executives amid an investigation over illegal payments of $10.5 million to a consultant related to an iron ore project in Guinea. http://bit.ly/2f1YKYT

* Brexit is unlikely to lead to a sudden decline in London’s status as one of the leading centres for the global capital markets, Barclays Plc Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley has predicted. http://bit.ly/2f21uVT

Sky News

* Ralf Speth, chief executive of Britain’s biggest car maker Jaguar Land Rover Ltd, has said that the company would have to “see the facts” before deciding whether to continue manufacturing in the United Kingdom. http://bit.ly/2f1WD78

* Royal Dutch Shell Plc announced closure of its Glasgow operation with the loss of 380 jobs as a new report from the International Energy Agency warns of a “boom/bust” cycle in the oil industry. http://bit.ly/2f1U1pT

The Independent

* The Treasury said that the Bank of England has been conferred formal powers to control lending in the fast-growing buy-to-let mortgage market. http://ind.pn/2f1W5hR

* The United Kingdom’s unemployment rate has come down to 4.8 percent in September, from 4.9 percent previously, the lowest since the summer of 2005, according to a report from the Office for National Statistics. http://ind.pn/2f1ZQUo

 

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Walmart Misses On Revenue, Comps; EPS Beats Thanks To Lower Tax Rate; Operating Income Slides

Retail giant Walmart reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.98, beating expectations of $0.96, despite a reported $0.03 hit to the bottom line due to currency impact; the company beat EPS due to a lower provision for income taxes, after it reduced its effective tax rate from 33.8% to 29.3%. Had WMT used its prior year effective tax rate, it would have missed EPS by 5 cents, reporting $0.91 instead.

More troubling was the drop in consolidated earnings of $3.034 billion which declined by 8.2% from $3.3 billion from a year ago. Operating income of $4.5 billion tumbled 12.2% from the $5.2 billion a year ago as a result of a 5.5% jump in SG&A, mostly in the form of higher wages. The company’s revenue rose 0.7% from a year ago to $118.2 billion, missing expectations of $118.8 billion, with comp store sales growth of 1.2% also missing estimates of a 1.3% increase. 

The good news: Wal-Mart raised low end of FY2017 EPS forecast, now sees adj. EPS $4.20-$4.35, saw $4.15-$4.35, est. $4.33; The new range includes 17c gain from sale of Yihaodian in China in 2Q, 3c negative impact from taxes on sale gain;

Walmart also sees 4Q Wal-Mart U.S. comp. sales up 1%-1.5%, est. up 1.4% (Consensus Metrix avg. of 22); It sees 4Q Sam’s Club comps. up 1%-1.5%, est. up 0.9%

The company reported Wal-Mart U.S. traffic up 0.7% y/y, with an average ticket up 0.5%, however that was not enough to offset the substantial jump in overhead.

Doug McMillon, President and CEO, WalMart Stores, made the following statement:

“We had a solid third quarter. Our ecommerce growth accelerated, operations in the U.S. continued to strengthen and international delivered another solid performance. We are pleased that we can see real progress stemming from our strategic choices and we appreciate the great work by our associates. Yet, we are not satisfied. We will continue to change and pick up speed to reach our longer term aspirations. We’re positioned well for this important fourth quarter and wish everyone a happy, peaceful and prosperous holiday season.”

Some more details from the press release:

  • Diluted EPS was $0.98. Currency negatively impacted EPS by approximately $0.03
  • Total revenue was $118.2 billion, an increase of 0.7%. On a constant currency basis1, total revenue was $120.3 billion, an increase of 2.5%.
  • Walmart U.S. comp sales increased 1.2%, driven by a traffic increase of 0.7%. Neighborhood Market comp sales increased approximately 5.2%.
  • Net sales at Walmart International were $28.4 billion, a decrease of 4.8%. Excluding currency impacts, net sales were $30.5 billion, an increase of 2.4%.
  • Globally, on a constant currency basis, e-commerce sales and GMV increased 20.6% and 16.8%, respectively, representing continued acceleration. Excluding Yihaodian, GMV increased 28.6%.
  • Consolidated operating income decreased 10.4%. As expected, investments in people and technology, as well as currency exchange rate fluctuations negatively impacted results. Excluding last year’s lease accounting benefit of $156 million, operating income decreased 7.9%. Year-to-date operating cash flow was $19.6 billion and free cash flow  was $12.2 billion, both approximately $5 billion higher than last year led by improved working capital management.
  • The company returned just under $3 billion to shareholders during the quarter through dividends of $1.5 billion and share repurchases of $1.4 billion.

The full summary results:

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Carl Icahn Says Stock Rally May Be Overdone, Calls Trump A “Consensus Builder”

Having turned decidedly bullish in the immediate aftermath of the Trump victory, his supporter Carl Icahn said the strong rally in U.S. stocks since last Wednesday’s “shocking” event might be overdone, however he added that investors can expect the president-elect to be a consensus builder who can help fix Washington and improve the economy. “When it runs up like this, I scale off a little bit,” Icahn said on Wednesday at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit, but added “that doesn’t mean that I am that negative or positive.”

Icahn, who has praised Trump’s two potential Treasury picks in either Jamie Dimon or Steven Munichin, aka JPM or Goldman, said on Wednesday he is confident that Trump can help undo the “stagnation” in the United States and its economy, which dominance of the Washington “establishment” has fostered. “We have a perception that the government is at war with business,” Icahn said. “The point I think about Donald is he’s a consensus builder, he’s a very smart guy.

As reported previously, Icahn confirmed that he left what became Trump’s victory party in the early morning on Nov. 9 to bet about $1 billion on U.S. equities. He called the knee-jerk overnight plunge in stocks, as it became clearer to investors that Trump might win, “crazy” and “unique,” and that it created a buying opportunity.

Icahn added that he expects Trump to fulfill his promise to reduce regulatory burdens on business, including Dodd-Frank financial reforms that “went too far.” Hope on Wall Street that Icahn will undo years of reform has sent financial stocks soaring in the past week, leading to the biggest inflow in financial ETFs on record. As Bloomberg reported, in the week following the election, the Financial Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund amassed $4.9 billion of inflows — a record, and more than it accumulated in the past three years.

However, Icahn cautioned that some financial regulation remained necessary, to stop Wall Street, which was “greatly to blame” for the 2008 global financial crisis, from causing another calamity.

The billionaire raider remained upbeat about some of his own investments, saying the insurer American International Group remained undervalued even after recent asset sales he urged. He also said Herbalife, “whose prospects he has debated for years with William Ackman, a hedge fund manager who calls the nutritional products company a Ponzi scheme”, remained undervalued after it agreed in July to restructure its business and pay $200 million to end a Federal Trade Commission probe.

Icahn, who has posted 28% annualized returns as an investor, says he regularly talks with legislators in Washington, who complain that the current system prevents them from getting things done. “It’s just a major problem,” said Icahn, who like Trump is from New York. “I was a poor kid from Queens and I made all this money. I love the country, it’s just a lot of the people I don’t like.”

As Reuters adds, Icahn likened the potential for Trump to succeed to President Lyndon Johnson’s success in getting civil rights laws passed in his early White House years.

“Donald is going to surround himself with some very good people,” Icahn said. “He’ll be a guy to do what you need to build consensus. He’ll do it like Lyndon Johnson did it. Who would have thought Lyndon Johnson could get the Civil Rights Act through?”

Finally Icahn expressed hope that critics of Trump will come around, recognizing the number of voters whose ballots reflected their dissatisfaction with business as usual in Washington.

“There are so many unhappy people around, and the reason they’re unhappy is the stagnation,” he said. “That’s why I think, even those that really don’t like Trump personally, should give him a shot.”

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BOJ “Fires Warning At Bond Market” Sending Global Yields, Dollar Lower; All Eyes On Yellen

Yesterday morning we noted why, in light of the ongoing global bond rout, all eyes would be on the BOJ, and specifically whether Kuroda would engage his “Yield control” operation to stabilize the steepness of the JGB yield curve and implicitly support global bond yields in what DB said would be “full blown helicopter money” where the “BoJ is flying the copter over the US and may be about to become the new US government’s best friend.” And sure enough that is precisely what Kuroda did last night after the Bank of Japan “fired a warning at the bond market” as Bloomberg described it, offering to buy an unlimited amount of debt at fixed yields for the first time, an operation meant to maintain the central bank’s yield-curve target and which stopped the bleeding not only across Japanese but also global bonds, in the process pushing the dollar lower.

The central bank announced two operations, one to buy two-year notes at minus 0.09 percent, and another for five-year debt at minus 0.04 percent. That came after two-year yields rose as high as minus 0.095 percent on Wednesday, up 18 basis points in five days. The BOJ introduced the tools after deciding in September it would control the yield curve. As Bloomberg notes, the so-called fixed-rate operation yielded no bids, a sign that the move was more of a demonstration exercise than an intended transaction in notes. Officials acted amid relative calm in the market, but in the wake of a global bond sell-off in the past week that had driven up yields across the globe — and in the process put pressure on Japanese government bonds as well. “It’s a surprise that the BOJ took action today,” said Souichi Takeyama, a rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s second-biggest lender. “Markets won’t test levels above these fixed rates as these will be seen as reflecting the BOJ’s upper limit.”

“The aim is to send a warning to markets about a significant surge in rates,” said Keiko Onogi, a fixed-income strategist at Daiwa Securities Co. in Tokyo. At the same time, “there are questions as to why the BOJ conducted this operation now, when the market had already stabilized after the surge in yields to yesterday,” she said.

“The BOJ will have welcomed the rise in Japanese stocks and decline in the yen following the Trump Shock, but they’ve shown they aren’t going to stand for a jump in JGB yields,” said Naoya Oshikubo, a rates strategist at Barclays Plc in Tokyo. “It’s the strength of that stance rather than the actual levels at which the BOJ offered to buy the debt that’s pulling down yields.”

The BOJ operation helped halt a five-day selloff in Japanese bonds, and government securities advanced from Australia to Germany, together with U.S. Treasuries. The euro strengthened for the first time in nine days as Bloomberg’s dollar index slipped from a nine-month high. Crude reversed declines as OPEC and Russia prepared to meet in Doha for more talks. European shares were little changed, and Asian equities rose with Japan’s Topix measure closing on the brink of a bull market.

In the US traders are walking to their desks, awaiting testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen before the Joint Economic Committee that will help shape the outlook for interest rates: focus will be on her comments about the December rate hike and the speed of future moves as financial conditions have materially tightened in recent days.

A December increase is now all but assured by the futures market which gives it a 94% probability, while prospects for further tightening triggered a global bonds rout and boosted the dollar since the start of last week.

“From the BOJ operation, it looks like it’s a firmer cap on yields than was previously being expected, so that’s supportive for fixed-income globally, ” said Peter Chatwell, head of rates strategy at Mizuho International Plc in London. “It means that the other markets can trade with a bit less of downside risk, or downside fear.”

Japan’s intervention eased the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which was down 0.2 percent. The yen rose 0.1 percent to 108.95 per dollar, but is still down more than 3 percent since Trump’s victory. The euro strengthened 0.3 percent against the dollar, halting an eight-day losing streak. The pound gained for the first time in four days as figures from the Office for National Statistics showed U.K. spending remained robust despite the Brexit vote.

Crude gained 0.4 percent to $45.76 a barrel in New York as Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC nations meet with Russia for informal talks without oil ministers from Iran and Iraq, the two countries that pose the biggest hurdle to an output deal. Russia will hold discussions with representatives from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Doha from Thursday, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.1 percent. While the gauge has remained calm in recent days, it has alternated between intraday gains and losses for eight straight sessions, the longest streak in two years. Its valuation of about 14 times estimated earnings is at its lowest since Brexit relative to a measure tracking global shares. S&P 500 futures were little changed after the gauge slipped 0.2 percent on Wednesday. It closed within 0.6 percent of the record reached in August, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3 percent from the all-time high it reached on Tuesday. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap shares closed at a peak.

Among stocks moving on corporate news:

  • Zurich Insurance Group AG gained 2.7 percent after saying it will increase its dividend and cut costs.
  • Royal Ahold Delhaize NV declined 3.1 percent as its quarterly profits missed analyst projections.
  • ABN Amro Group NV fell 3.1 percent after the Dutch state sold 65 million of its shares.
  • Cisco Systems Inc. lost 4.4 percent in early New York trading after projecting sales and profit pointing to a slowdown in corporate spending on technology hardware.

Treasury 10-year yields fell three basis points to 2.19 percent at 9:19 a.m. London time, retreating further from this year’s high of 2.3 percent, reached Monday, after the BOJ’s first offer to buy an unlimited amount of securities. Japanese bonds also rose after the operation, which was viewed by many as a response to the surge in global yields. 10Y German bund yields also dropped three basis points, to 0.24 percentThe U.S. government will sell TIPS on Thursday, and demand may be robust, with BlackRock Inc., Fidelity Investments and Pacific Investment Management Co. all having recommended the securities since the presidential vote on speculation that Trump’s policies will boost consumer prices.

* * *

Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk

  • European equities enter the North American crossover mostly lower as financial names pause for breath after recent election-inspired upside
  • Some tentative signs of USD moderation in the making, with USD moderation against the EUR and JPY seeing 1.0650 and 110.00 levels respectively held
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UK retail sales, EU & US CPI, ECB minutes, US weekly jobless data, housing starts & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index & a host of Fed speakers

Global Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2175
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.1% to 339
  • FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 6770
  • DAX down 0.3% to 10629
  • German 10Yr yield down 2bps to 0.28%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 2bps to 2.02%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.52%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.2% to 358.3
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% to 135
  • Nikkei 225 up less than 0.1% to 17863
  • Hang Seng down less than 0.1% to 22263
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3208
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5339
  • US 10-yr yield down 3bps to 2.2%
  • Dollar Index down 0.29% to 100.12
  • WTI Crude futures up 0.2% to $45.66
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $46.72
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,227
  • Silver spot up 0.3% to $17.04

Top Headline News

  • Apple Wants OLED in iPhones, But Most Suppliers Aren’t Ready Yet: Display makers seen struggling to meet iPhone output in 2017
  • Apple Is Said To Cut Fees Video Services Will Pay for App Store
  • Dimon Told Trump Team He Has No Interest in Treasury: Fortune
  • Gingrich Doesn’t Want Formal Role in Trump White House: Fox
  • Haley, McMaster Considered for Trump Cabinet: Post and Courier
  • Verizon’s Buy of Fiber Network From Icahn’s XO Wins Approval: FCC clears $1.8 billion deal, says it doesn’t harm competition
  • Ahold Delhaize Profit Misses Estimates on U.S. Deflation: Price pressure erodes sales at Food Lion supermarket chain
  • Gilead’s Myelofibrosis Drug Gets Mixed Results in Cancer Trials: Treatment for a rare bone marrow cancer succeeded in one trial and failed in another
  • Facebook Yields to IRS Demand for Records Over Asset Transfer: IRS demands for records related to co.’s transfer of global operations to Ireland in 2010
  • Sen. Cotton Plans to Offer $26b Emergency Defense Spending Bill

* * *

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks were slightly downbeat following a lacklustre lead from Wall St, where underperformance in energy and financials weighed on sentiment and saw DJIA close negative for the first time in 8 days. Nikkei 225 (Unch) was driven by JPY fluctuations, while ASX 200 (+0.2%) closed higher amid strength in defensive stocks with weak employment data also raising doubts that RBA may not be done with its easing cycle. Shanghai Comp (+0.1%) dampened amid ongoing trade concerns, while downside in the Hang Seng (-0.3%) was stemmed by consumer names and banks. 10yr JGBs gained with outperformance seen in the short-end after the BoJ announced to purchase an unlimited amount of bonds ranging from 1yr-5yr maturities at fixed rates which suggested an intent to cap yields if needed, although the BoJ found no takers and some gains were later pared following a weaker 20yr auction in which the b/c and average price fell from the prior month.
Japanese cabinet advisor Fujii stated he wants additional fiscal stimulus in 2017 and would like JPY 21trl added to the primary budget in the next fiscal year and in the following years thereafter.

Top Asian News

  • JPMorgan Said Set to Pay $200 Million in China Hires Settlement: Non-prosecution deal reflects bank’s cooperation with inquiry
  • Yuan Watchers Lower Forecasts as Trump Victory Raises Risks: Currency may weaken to 7 per dollar early next year
  • Philippines Posts Strongest Economic Growth in Asia at 7.1%: Nation seen as among fastest-expanding in the world until 2018
  • BOJ First Unlimited Bond Buys Get No Bids After Yields Retreated: BOJ announces first fixed-rate operation to buy JGBs
  • Ward Ferry to Shut 15-Year-Old Asia Hedge Fund as Co-CIO Leaves: Co. will focus on long-only funds after Nash-Webber leaves

In Europe, bourses opened lower following the lead from Wall Street, as DAX (-0.2%) and EUROSTOXX (-0.2%) have both seen underperformance in financial names after a retracement from recent election-inspired gains. The Telecoms sector is the outperformer following reports of a potential merger between T-Mobile and Sprint in the US. Bond markets have also received a bid inline with general risk sentiment. In Italy the latest polls put the no vote ahead and with the referendum too close to call and as more comments filter through to the markets we must keep a close eye on eye on Italian yields particularly the short end.

Top European News

  • VW Loses European Market Share as Scandal Effect Lingers: Carmaker’s October sales fell 1.8% vs. market’s 0.3% drop
  • ABN Amro’s Dutch State Owner Selling 7% as Part of Exit Plan: Stock up 18% in 12 months as most European lenders have fallen
  • Rio Tinto Fires Two Senior Executives Amid Payment Probe: fired two of its top executives over a payment connected to a giant iron ore project in Guinea in West Africa
  • NN Group Chief Wants Delta Lloyd to Open Up to Deal Talks: NN still sees ‘strong merit’ in a combination of the firms

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.2 percent. The yen rose 0.1 percent to 108.95 per dollar, but is still down more than 3 percent since Trump’s victory. The euro strengthened 0.3 percent against the dollar, halting an eight-day losing streak. The pound gained for the first time in four days as figures from the Office for National Statistics showed U.K. spending remained robust despite the Brexit vote. Malaysia’s ringgit fell for a seventh day, its longest stretch of losses in more than a year. Bank Negara Malaysia said Wednesday it will continue to restrict speculative activity in the currency market. The Vietnamese dong fell for a fourth day to a five-month low. “I’m just seeing this as overall dollar strength,” said Wu Mingze, a foreign-exchange trader in Singapore at INTL FCStone Inc., a Nasdaq-listed global payments-service provider. “Unfortunately speculators will treat Bank Negara’s statements as a sign of weakness if they do not actually do something.”

In commodities, crude gained 0.4 percent to $45.76 a barrel in New York as Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC nations meet with Russia for informal talks without oil ministers from Iran and Iraq, the two countries that pose the biggest hurdle to an output deal. Russia will hold discussions with representatives from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Doha from Thursday, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. There’s a high chance of an agreement and Russia is ready to support a decision, he said. Copper traded near a 17-month high in Shanghai. Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s top producer, agreed to cut processing fees for next year as mine supply is poised to be little changed and Chinese smelting capacity expands. Gold has stabilized after its U.S. election thrashing and is on course to end the week little changed, even as investors bail from bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Prices for immediate delivery climbed 0.4 percent to $1,229.84 an ounce.

On today’s economic calendar, the key data to watch will be the October inflation report with headline CPI expected to tick up (+0.4% mom expected; +0.3% previous). In terms of labour market data we will get the initial jobless claims numbers for last week (257k expected; 254k previous) and the continuing claims from the week before (2030k expected; 2041k previous). We will also see the Housing starts (1156k expected; 1047k previous) and the Building Permits numbers (1195k expected; 1225k previous) for October, and finally round out the day with the Philadelphia Fed PMI for November (7.8 expected; 9.7 previous). Away from data, we continue on a busy week for Fedspeak. As already noted above, Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee today – the first time we’ll hear from her following the US elections. We will also hear from Brainard in New York. The other event to note for today is the scheduled meeting between US President-elect Trump and Japanese PM Abe.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Oct., est. 1.156m (prior 1.047m)
  • 8:30am: CPI m/m, Oct., est. 0.4% (prior 0.3%)
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 12, est. 257k (prior 254k); Continuing Claims, Nov. 5, est. 2.030m (prior 2.041m)
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Nov., est. 7.8 (prior 9.7)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, Nov. (prior 45)
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 13 (prior 45.1)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change

* * *

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today the Trump story advances further with the President elect meeting his first world leader post the election with Japan’s Abe passing through town. We’ll also see Fed Chair Yellen testify before the Joint Economic Committee today – note that this is the first time we’ll hear from her following the election. We think her prepared remarks will be out at 8am EST. So potential for headlines from both events. It was also interesting that late last night Fox’s Maria Bartiromo suggested that the crucial US Treasury secretary role will be decided today (announced tomorrow) and is down to a choice between Jamie Dimon of JPM and Steve Mnuchin. The fact that Jamie Dimon is still in the race after his public comments downplaying his desire for the role would be a surprise to many but he would certainly be another appointment that Wall Street would appreciate. Indeed both potential candidates are Wall Street veterans. So one to watch over the next two days.

The most interesting news overnight is that the BoJ has announced its first operations to purchase an unlimited amount of bonds at a fixed rate following 10-year JGB yields turning positive earlier this week for the first time since the BoJ announced their desire to peg them near zero. They are carrying out two operations, one in 1-3 year maturities and another in the 3-5 year part of the curve. The operation received no bids but its the first sign that they are prepared to intervene. 10 year yields have edged back a fraction through zero as we type having traded as high as 0.035% yesterday.

As we discussed yesterday if the BoJ is serious about defending their targets in the face of rising global yields then we effectively have cross border helicopter money but with the helicopters dropping money printed in Japan over the US given Trump’s fiscal agenda. It’s an interesting backdrop to today’s meeting of the respective leaders. Trump might end up being very grateful for Japanese policy as it could help hold global yields down more than they would have been without it. Elsewhere Asian markets are relatively quiet with very little movement of note although I admit I might be too tired to spot anything significant even if there was.

A similar story was seen yesterday as markets continue to settle a little after a frenetic past week. The STOXX 600 (-0.20%) and S&P 500 (also -0.2%) both dipped though. US banks were the worst performing US sector yesterday (-2.1%), finally running out of steam following a strong post-election rally. The Dow (-0.32%) was also down for the first time since the beginning of last week.

Over in currency markets, the US dollar continued its post-election rally by gaining +0.3% and quickly erasing yesterday’s dip. Commodity markets were broadly down, with WTI and Brent falling by -0.7% and -1.0% respectively and copper down -0.6%. Gold was marginally lower on the day as it continued its string of losses (down -4.4% since the beginning of last week).

European credit markets were also down as iTraxx Main and Crossover both widened by +1bps on the day. Over in the US we saw CDX IG hold steady while CDX HY widened by +5bps on the day.
Turning to the other end of the risk spectrum, German 10Y yields dropped by -1bps on the day while US 10Y yields saw some big intraday swings that saw yields rise and fall by nearly +8bps and -2bps respectively before ending the day flat. The US curve also flattened somewhat as the US 2Y ticked up +1bp while the 30Y dropped by -4bps. Markets in general continue to price in a December Fed hike with near certainty, with the implied probability around 94% (unchanged from yesterday).

On the topic of rate hikes, one of the key questions surrounding Trump’s unexpected election victory last week was regarding the impact his policies may have on the Fed in the year ahead. DB’s GEP team focuses on one specific area of this issue – what appropriate Fed policy would look like given Trump’s policy mix. They find that a much faster pace of rate hikes are certainly implied under the new administration – even under a relatively conservative assessment the team finds that Yellen’s preferred Taylor rule would imply that the Fed should pursue one more rate hike next year than they currently expect. Under a more optimistic scenario (in which US growth rises to around 3% in 2017) the appropriate fed funds rate would be about 75bp higher than the Fed’s current expectations. However, the team notes that while a substantially faster pace of rate hikes in 2017 is a risk, this is not their base case: they believe inflation is likely to moderate early next year and the full growth benefits of Trump’s policies may not begin to be felt until the second half of the year. Hence, the Fed is likely to initially keep to their expectations for a gradual pace of rate increases, with the greater risk for faster rate hikes in late-2017 and 2018.

Another key topic of focus following Trump’s victory has been the potential for increased fiscal spending in the US – particularly infrastructure spending. While such a policy is largely expected to prove to be growth positive, there are also fears regarding how such unfunded spending may be possible without damaging the government’s fiscal position. However, a Bloomberg news story yesterday noted that the Trump administration is exploring ways of establishing an ‘infrastructure bank’ to fund such planned infrastructure investments. Depending on its structure, such an entity could potentially provide a way to accommodate increased spending and investment while managing the impact on the government balance sheet. Trump’s policy mix so far has had its share of unknowns (note the campaign team derided a similar policy from Clinton) and so this development might be worth following.

Another piece of political news out yesterday was that Emmanuel Macron officially confirmed his plan to run for French presidency as an independent. While Macron’s candidacy for next year’s election was expected, it does introduce further uncertainty into the race as it may further fragment the electorate. DB’s France economist Marc de-Muizon discussed Macron’s potential candidacy (among other political issues) in a report published last month and noted that his position was more difficult than his high popularity ratings suggested.

Taking a look now at some of the data out today, we saw the September and October employment report from the UK which was a bit of a mixed bag. The ILO unemployment rate for September came in marginally better than expected at 4.8% (vs. 4.9% expected; 4.9% previous). However there remain signs that the labour market may be cooling as the employment change numbers for September came in below expectations at 49k (vs. 91k expected; 106k previous) and jobless claims numbers for October ticked up to 9.8k (vs. 2.0k expected) with September being revised up to 5.6k as well (0.7k before revision). Average weekly earnings growth for September was unchanged and marginally below expectations at +2.3% (vs. +2.4% expected; +2.3% previous).

In the US data slightly disappointed. Wholesale prices for October were unexpectedly unchanged on the month (PPI +0.0% mom) and below expectations of a +0.3% increase. Industrial production was flat and below expectations in October (+0.2% expected), while the September number was revised down to -0.2% (vs. +0.1% before revision). Capacity utilization in October also ticked down and came in marginally below expectations at 75.3% (vs. 75.5% expected; 75.4% previous). The NAHB housing market index for November however did hold stable and come in as expected at 63.

Looking at the data calendar for the day ahead now, we kick off in France where we get the Q3 employment numbers, with the headline unemployment rate (9.9% expected; 9.9% previous) expected to remain unchanged. Thereafter we turn to the UK where we will see the October retail sales numbers (+0.4% mom expected; 0.0% previous). Thereafter we will see the final October CPI numbers for the Eurozone where no revisions are expected (+0.5% YoY expected).

Over in the US, the key data to watch will be the October inflation report with headline CPI expected to tick up (+0.4% mom expected; +0.3% previous). In terms of labour market data we will get the initial jobless claims numbers for last week (257k expected; 254k previous) and the continuing claims from the week before (2030k expected; 2041k previous). We will also see the Housing starts (1156k expected; 1047k previous) and the Building Permits numbers (1195k expected; 1225k previous) for October, and finally round out the day with the Philadelphia Fed PMI for November (7.8 expected; 9.7 previous).

Away from data, we continue on a busy week for Fedspeak. As already noted above, Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee today – the first time we’ll hear from her following the US elections. We will also hear from Brainard in New York. The other event to note for today is the scheduled meeting between US President-elect Trump and Japanese PM Abe.

via http://ift.tt/2glptp6 Tyler Durden

How Deep Will Trump’s Truths Go?

 

Via The Daily Bell

Donald Trump will often be mocked in the coming months as the anti-elitist, anti-establishment disruptor of politics who wants to lower taxes on the elite and who is not above hiring establishment figures such as Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus for his team. The mockery will mostly be misplaced simply because the terms “elite” and “establishment” are understood too broadly: Trump’s movement was only against certain forms of establishment elitism which have nothing to do with wealth, membership in a party hierarchy or even political experience.  -Bloomberg

In this editorial we learn that Trump voters were against America’s intelligentsia. These are the people who occupy the bureaucratic rungs in Washington and the tenured chairs in top universities.

These are the people as well that cluster in New York, Los Angeles and Washington. They move back and forth between corporations and “public service.”

These are the folks that set the tone for the cultural attacks that are ruining the United States. These people, as well, constitute the ranks of globalists.  Much of what they want for America is intended to destroy it.

More:

When Trump supporters think about the “elite” or the “establishment” what they really mean is America’s intelligentsia.

… Collectively, they — we — were seen as an entrenched, closed, arrogant group that sees fit to tell people what to say and think.

… This is the same understanding of “elite” and “establishment” that informed Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged”: The Trumpists share Rand’s exasperation with teachers, writers and bureaucrats and their fake recipes for social justice, as well as her admiration for the rough but creative doers, the titans of business.

Of course this is nonsense, and in fact these perceptions are exactly what’s wrong with Rand.

She saw the world as a place where “doers” were hemmed in and pulled down by their inferiors.

But today’s world is not like that. In fact, one can make a case that the industrial revolution – filled with doers – eradicated an independent peasantry whose lives were a good deal freer than ours today.

The problem with the modern world is simple. It is in the grip of a great conspiracy, the likes of which have probably never occurred on this scale in human history.

The conspiracy is apparently run by a few people who have inherited control central banking around the world and thus are worth trillions.

With this money they have created an almost seamless web of propaganda intended to frighten people and drive them into the arms of international government.

The goal is a single world order with one justice system, one central bank, one currency, one civil police force, etc.

This Bloomberg article is focused not on the top people in this conspiracy but on the “little people” who do the bidding of higher ups and have learned  how to survive in an internationalist environment and profit from it.

But in our view, these are probably NOT the people that Trump’s voters really voted against. Many of Trump’s voters, like Trump himself, understand that the problems go far beyond academics, bureaucrats and corrupt tycoons.

In fact, this Bloomberg article is a perfect example of a kind of elite propaganda. It is trying to convince us that we need to “listen” to the anger of Trump voters and then, we are instructed, the intelligentsia needs to react.

American intellectuals may violently disagree with the average Trump voter on most things. They may have access to facts that prove that voters wrong. But there’s no way they — we — can go on dismissing and ridiculing these people without dooming themselves to irrelevance and provoking further backlash.

This is in fact the fondest hope, no doubt, of those tasked with defending the REAL culprits from exposure and attack. Such individuals are the ones running the world’s largest corporations and leading the most powerful nation states.

And these individuals may be found in higher places still, plotting the propaganda that the rest of us imbibe. Also managing central bank strategies and even plotting our gradual progress toward a new world war.

The Bloomberg article ends by suggesting that a lot of the irritation of Trump voters is aimed at political correctness and that the US needs “an open conversation about what ails it, not … one that tiptoes around speech taboos about racism, misogyny and sexual discrimination.”

Once more – hooey. Our guess is that like Donald Trump himself, many of his voters – perhaps tens of millions are quite aware that the world’s problems extend far beyond political correctness and “intellectuals.”

Of course we’ll have to wait and see. But Trump called InfoWars to thank them for their support, and InfoWars, for all its controversy, has provided a good deal of reality about the way the world works.

If Trump intends to educate people about the real “conspiracy” – a banking conspiracy located, to begin with, in London’s City – then fairly powerful truths will need to be spoken.

It is quite likely these truths, once uttered, will find a sympathetic audience with many of Trump’s supporters. This isn’t what Bloomberg is hoping for, however. Bloomberg, as this editorial shows, wants a conversation focused on debunking political correctness and bringing America’s – and the West’s – intelligentsia to heel.

Conclusion: Will Trump’s victory provide us with larger truths, or will the conversation be bogged down and trivialized? This is an important question. We can see the answer Bloomberg hopes for. We hope for something more fundamental.

Editor’s Note: The Daily Bell is giving away a silver coin and a silver “white paper” to subscribers. If you enjoy DB’s articles and want to stay up-to-date for free, please subscribe here


More from The Daily Bell:
 

If Trump Wants to Fix the ‘Disaster’ of the Pentagon, He Should Clean Up Its Nuclear Lies

 

India Bans Cash, Now Gold?

Tesla’s Musk Investigated Over SolarCity by Congress

 

via http://ift.tt/2gjCoHp TDB

European Central Bank gold reserves held across 5 locations. ECB will not disclose Gold Bar List.

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

The European Central Bank (ECB), creator of the Euro, currently claims to hold 504.8 tonnes of gold reserves. These gold holdings are reflected on the ECB balance sheet and arose from transfers made to the ECB by Euro member national central banks, mainly in January 1999 at the birth of the Euro. As of the end of December 2015, these ECB gold reserves were valued on the ECB balance sheet at market prices and amounted to €15.79 billion. 

The ECB very recently confirmed to BullionStar that its gold reserves are stored across 5 international locations. However, the ECB also confirmed that it does not physically audit its gold, nor will it divulge a bar list / weight list of these gold bar holdings.

Questions and Answers

BullionStar recently put a number of questions to the European Central Bank about the ECB’s gold holdings. The ECB Communications Directorate replied to these questions with answers that appear to include a number of facts about the ECB gold reserves which have not previously been published. The questions put to the ECB and its responses are listed below (underlining added):

Question 1: “The 2015 ECB Annual Report states that as at 31 December 2015, the ECB held 16,229,522 ounces of fine gold equivalent to 504.8 tonnes of goldGiven that the ECB gold holdings arose from transfers by the respective member central banks, could you confirm the storage locations in which this ECB gold is currently held (for example at the Bank of England etc), and the percentage breakdown of amount stored per storage location.”

ECB Response: “The gold of the ECB is located in London, Paris, Lisbon, New York and Rome. The ECB does not disclose its distribution over these places. The gold of the ECB is stored there because it was already stored there before ownership was transferred to the ECB and moving it was seen and is seen as too costly.

Question 2: “Could you clarify as to how, if at all, this gold is audited, and whether it physical audited by the ECB or by a 3rd party?”

ECB Response: “The ECB has no physical audit of its gold bars. The gold bars that the ECB owns are individually identified and each year the ECB receives a detailed statement of these gold deposits. The central banks where the gold is stored are totally reliable.

Question 3: “Finally, can the ECB supply a full weight list of the gold bars that comprise the 504.8 tonnes of gold referred to above?”

ECB Response: “The ECB does not disclose this information.

 

London, New York, Paris, Rome, Lisbon

Given that some of the information shared by the ECB has arguably not been in the public record before, each of the 3 ECB answers above is worth further exploration.

In January 1999, when the Euro currency was created (Stage 3 of Economic and Monetary Union), each founding member national central bank (NCB) of the Euro transferred a quantity of foreign reserve assets to the ECB. Of these transfers, 85% was paid to the ECB in the form of US dollars and Japanese Yen, and 15% was paid to the ECB in the form of physical gold.

Initially in January 1999, central banks of 11 countries that joined the Euro made these transfers to the ECB, and subsequently the central banks of a further 8 countries that later joined the Euro also executed similar transfers to the ECB.

All of the foreign exchange and gold reserves that were transferred to and are owned by the ECB are managed in a decentralised manner by the national central banks that initiated the transfers. Essentially, each national central bank acts as an agent for the ECB and each NCB still manages that portion of reserves that it transferred to the ECB. This also applies to the transferred gold and means that the gold transferred to the ECB never physically moved anywhere, it just stayed where it had been when the transfers of ownership were made.

That is why, as the ECB response to Question 1 states: “The gold of the ECB is stored there because it was already stored there before ownership was transferred to the ECB”.

What is probably most interesting about the latest ECB statement is that it names 5 city locations over which the ECB’s gold is stored. The 5 gold storage locations stated by the ECB are London, New York, Paris, Rome and Lisbon. Since the gold transferred to the ECB in 1999 by the national central banks would have already been stored in central banks gold vaults, these 5 city locations undoubtedly refer to the gold vaults of:

  • the Bank of England
  • the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • the Banque de France
  • the Banca d’Italia
  • Banco de Portugal

The fact the ECB’s gold holdings are supposedly stored at these 5 locations can be explained as follows:

Table 1: Central bank FX and Gold transfers to the ECB, January 1999

Between 4th and 7th January 1999, 11 central banks transferred a total of €39.469 billion in reserve assets to the ECB (in the form of gold, cash and securities). Of this total, 15% was in the form of gold, amounting to 24 million ounces of gold (747 tonnes of gold) which was valued at that time at €246.368 per fine ounce of gold, or €5.92 billion. The 85% transferred in the form of currencies comprised 90% US Dollars and 10% Japanese Yen. See pages 152 and 153 of ECB annual report 1999 for more details.

The 11 central banks that made the transfers to the ECB in January 1999 were the central banks of Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, France, Luxembourg, Italy, Ireland, Austria, Finland, Spain and Portugal. See Table 1 for details of these gold transfers, and the amount of gold transferred to ECB ownership by each central bank.

The value of reserves transferred to the ECB by each national central bank were based on a percentage formula called a ‘capital key’ which also determined how much each central bank subscribed to the founding capital of the ECB. This capital key was based on equally weighting the percentage of population and GDP each Euro founding member economy represented, therefore central banks such as Deutsche Bundesbank, Banque de France, and Banca d’Italia comprised the largest transfers, as can be see in Table 1. It also meant that these 3 central banks transferred the largest amounts of gold to the ECB, with the Bundesbank for example transferring 232 tonnes of gold to the ECB.

The Bundesbank gold transfer to the ECB in January 1999 took place at the Bank of England. The Bundesbank actually confirmed in its own published gold holdings spreadsheet that this transfer took place at the Bank of England. See spreadsheet Column 5 (BoE tonnes), Rows 1998 and 1999, where the Bundesbank gold holdings fell by 332 tonnes between 1998 and 1999 from 1,521 tonnes to 1,189 tonnes and also see Column 20 where gold lending rose from 149 tonnes to 249 tonnes. Therefore, between 1998 and 1999, 232 tonnes of gold was transferred from the Bundesbank gold account at the bank of England to the ECB account at the Bank of England, and 100 tonnes was added to the Bundesbank’s gold loans.

Paris and Rome

The Banque de France currently stores the majority (over 90%) of its gold reserves in its own vaults in Paris, so it it realistic to assume that when the Banque de France transferred 159 tonnes of gold to the ECB in January 1999, it did so using gold stored in the Banque de France vaults in Paris. Likewise, it is realistic to assume that the Banca d’Italia, which currently stores half of its gold reserves at its own vaults in Rome, transferred 141 gold stored in its Rome vaults to the ECB in 1999. This would explain the Paris and Rome gold holdings of the ECB. While a few ex French colony central banks are known to have historically stored gold with the Banque de France in Paris, none of the founding members of the Euro (apart from the Bundesbank) are on the record as having stored gold in Paris, at least not for a long time. The Banca d’Italia is not known for storing gold on behalf of other national central banks.

Lisbon and New York

The Banco de Portugal currently holds its gold reserves in Lisbon and also at the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY), and with the BIS. The ECB gold stored in Lisbon, Portugal most likely refers to the 18.2 tonnes of gold transferred by the Banco de Portugal to the ECB in January 1999, because a) that makes most sense, and b) the Banco de Portugal is not known as a contemporary gold custodian for other central banks.

Of the other 7 central banks that transferred gold to the ECB in January 1999, the central banks of Austria, Belgium and Ireland store most of their gold at the Bank of England so are the most likely candidates to have made gold transfers to the ECB at the Bank of England. See BullionStar blog “Central bank gold at the Bank of England” for more details of where central banks are known to store gold.

The Netherlands and Finland currently store some of their gold reserves at the Bank of England and at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and probably also did so in 1998/99, so one or both of these banks could have made transfers to the ECB at the FRBNY. Another contender for transferring gold held at the FRBNY is the Spanish central bank since it historically was a holder of gold at the NYFED. It’s not clear where the central bank of Luxembourg held or holds gold but it’s not material since Luxembourg only transferred just over 1 tonne to the ECB in January 1999.

Greece and Later Euro members

Greece joined the Euro in January 2001 and upon joining it transferred 19.5 tonnes of gold to the ECB. Greece is known for storing some of its gold at the FRBNY and some at the Bank of England, so Greece too is a candidate for possibly transferring New York held gold to the ECB. In theory, the ECB’s New York held gold may not have even arisen from direct transfers from Euro member central banks but could be the result of a location swap. Without the national central banks or the ECB providing this information, we just don’t know for sure how the ECB’s New York gold holdings arose.

Another 7 countries joined the Euro after Greece. These countries were Slovenia on 1st January 2007, Malta and Cyprus 1st January 2008, Slovakia 1st January 2009, Estonia 1st January 2011, Latvia 1st January 2014, and Lithuania 1st January 2015. The majority of these central banks made gold transfers to the ECB at the Bank of England. In total these 7 central banks only transferred 9.4 tonnes of gold to the ECB, so their transfers are not really material to the ECB’s gold holdings.

ECB Gold Sales: 271.5 tonnes

More importantly, the ECB sold 271.5 tonnes of gold between Q1 2005 and Q1 2009. These sales comprised 47 tonnes announced on 31 March 2005, 57 tonnes announced 31 March 2006,  37 tonnes over April and May 2007 announced 1 June 2007, 23 tonnes of sales completed on 30 November 2006, 42 tonnes announced 30 November 2007, 30 tonnes of completed sales announced 30 June 2008, and 35.5 tonnes completed in Q1 2009.

These sales explain why the ECB currently only holds 504.8 tonnes of gold:

i.e. 766.9 t (including Greece) – 271.5 t sales + 9.4 t smaller member transfers = 504.8 t

The ECB does not provide, nor has ever provided, any information as to where the 271.5 tonnes of gold  involved in these 2005-2009 sales was stored when it was sold. The fact that the ECB still claims to hold gold in Paris, Rome and Lisbon, as well as London and New York, suggests that at least some of the gold transferred by the Banque de France, Banca d’Italia and Banco de Portugal in 1999 is still held by the ECB.

If the ECB had sold all the gold originally transferred to it by all central banks other than France, Italy, Portugal and Germany, this would only amount to 197 tonnes, so another 74 tonnes would have been needed to make up the shortfall, which would probably have come from the ECB holdings at the Bank of England since that is where most potential central bank and bullion bank buyers hold gold accounts and where most gold is traded on the international market.

Even taking into account Greece’s 19.4 tonne gold transfer to the ECB in January 2001, and excluding the French, Italian, German and Portuguese transfers in 1999, the ECB’s 271.5 tonnes of gold sales would still have burned through all the smaller transfers and left a shortfall. So the ECB gold sales may have come from gold sourced from all of its 5 storage loacations.

It’s also possible that one or more of the original 11 central banks transferred gold to the ECB that was stored at a location entirely distinct from the 5 currently named locations, for example gold stored at the Swiss National Bank. If that particular gold was then sold over the 2005-2009 period, it would not get picked up in the current locations. It’s also possible that some or all of the 271.5 tonnes of gold sold by the ECB over 2005-2009 had been loaned out, and that the ‘sales’ were just a book squaring exercise in ‘selling’ gold which the lenders failed to return, with the loan transactions being cash-settled.

No Physical Audit of ECB Gold

Given that the Euro is the 2nd largest reserve currency in the world and the 2nd most traded currency in the world, the ECB’s gold and how that gold is accounted for is certainly a topic of interest. Although the ECB’s gold doesn’t directly back the Euro, it backs the balance sheet of the central bank that manages and administers the Euro, i.e. the ECB.

The valuation of gold on the ECB’s annual balance sheet also adds to unrecognised gains on gold in the ECB’s revaluation account. Given gold’s substantial price appreciation between 1999 and 2015, the ECB’s unrecognised gains on gold amount to €11.9 billion as of 31 December 2015.

It is therefore shocking, but not entirely surprising, that the ECB doesn’t perform a physical audit of its gold bars and has never done so since initiating ownership of this gold in 1999. Shocking because this lack of physical audit goes against even the most basic accounting conventions and fails to independently prove that the gold is where its claimed to be, but not surprising because the world of central banking and gold arrogantly ignores and bulldozes through all generally accepted accounting conventions. Geographically, 2 of the locations where the ECB claims to store a percentage of its gold are not even in the Eurozone (London and New York), and infamously, the Bundesbank is taking 7 years to repatriate a large portion of its gold from New York, so the New York storage location of ECB gold holdings should immediately raise a red flag. Furthermore, the UK is moving (slowly) towards Brexit and away from the EU.

Recall the response above from the ECB:

The ECB has no physical audit of its gold bars. The gold bars that the ECB owns are individually identified and each year the ECB receives a detailed statement of these gold deposits. The central banks where the gold is stored are totally reliable.

Imagine a physical-gold backed Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) such as the SPDR Gold Trust or iShares Gold Trust coming out with such a statement. They would be run out of town. References to ‘totally reliable’ are all very fine, but ‘totally reliable’ wouldn’t stand up in court during an ownership claim case, and assurances of ‘totally reliable’ are not enough, especially in the gold storage and auditing businesses.

The ECB is essentially saying that these ‘statements’ of its gold deposits that it receives from its storage custodians are all that is needed to for an “audit” since the custodians are ‘totally reliable‘.

This auditing of pieces of paper (statements) by the ECB also sounds very similar to how the Banca d’Italia and the Deutsche Bundesbank conduct their gold auditing on externally held gold i.e. they also merely read pieces of paper. Banca d’Italia audits “annual certificates issued by the central banks that act as the depositories” (the FRBNY, the Bank of England, and the SNB/BIS).

The Bundesbank does likewise for its externally held gold (it audits bits of paper), and solely relies on statements from custodians that hold its gold abroad. The Bundesbank actually got into a lot of heat over this procedure in 2012 from the German Federal Court of Auditors who criticised the Bundesbank’s blasé attitude and lack of physical auditing, criticism which the Bundesbank’s executive director Andreas Dombret hilariously and unsuccessfully tried to bury in a speech to the FRBNY  in New York in November 2012 in which he called the controversy a “bizarre public discussion” and “a phantom debate on the safety of our gold reserves“, and ridiculously referred to the movies Die Hard with a Vengeance and Goldfinger, to wit:

“The days in which Hollywood Germans such as Gerd Fröbe, better known as Goldfinger, and East German terrorist Simon Gruber, masterminded gold heists in US vaults are long gone. Nobody can seriously imagine scenarios like these, which are reminiscent of a James Bond movie with Goldfinger playing the role of a US Fed accounting clerk.”

Where is the ECB Gold Bar Weight List?

Since, as the ECB states, it’s gold bars are “individually identified“, then gold bar weight lists of the ECB’s gold do indeed exist. This then begs the question, where are these weight lists, and why not release them if the ECB has nothing to hide?

Quickly, to define a weight list, a gold bar weight list is an itemised list of all the gold bars held within a holding which uniquely identifies each bar in the holding. In the wholesale gold market, such as the London Gold Market, the LBMA’s “Good Delivery Rules” address weight lists, and state that for each gold bar on a weight list, it must list the bar serial number, the refiner name, the gross weight of the bar, the gold purity of the bar and the fine weight of the bar. The LBMA also state that “year of manufacture is one of the required ‘marks’ on the bar”.

Recall from above that when the ECB was asked to provide a full weight list of its 504.8 tonnes of gold bars, it responded: The ECB does not disclose this information.

After receiving this response, BullionStar then asked in a followup question as to why the ECB doesn’t disclose a weight list of the gold bars. The ECB responded (underlining added):

“We would like to inform you that, while the total weight and value of the gold held by the European Central Bank (ECB) can be considered to be of interest to the public, the weight of each gold bar is a technicalitythat does not affect the economic characteristics of the ECB’s gold holdings. Therefore the latter does not warrant a publication.

It is a very simple task to publish such a weight list in an automated fashion. The large gold backed ETFs publish such weight lists online each and every day, which run in to the hundreds of pages. Publication of a weight list by the ECB would be a very simple process and would prove that the claimed bars are actually allocated and audited.
 

This ECB excuse is frankly foolish and pathetic and is yet another poorly crafted excuse in the litany of poorly crafted excuses issued by large gold holding central banks in Europe to justify not publishing gold bar weight lists. The Dutch central bank recently refused to issue a gold bar weight list since it said it would be too costly and administratively burdensome. The Austrian central bank in refusing to publish a weight list claimed as an excuse that it “does not have the required list online“. Last year in 2015, the German Bundesbank issued a half-baked useless list of its gold bar holdings which was without the industry standard required refiner brand and bar serial number details.  (For more details, see Koos Jansen BullionStar blogs “Dutch Central Bank Refuses To Publish Gold Bar List For Dubious Reasons“, and “Central Bank Austria Claims To Have Audited Gold at BOE. Refuses To Release Audit Reports & Gold Bar List“, and a Peter Boehringer guest post “Guest Post: 47 years after 1968, Bundesbank STILL fails to deliver a gold bar number list“).

The more evidence that is gathered about the refusal of central banks to issue industry standard gold bar weight lists, the more it becomes obvious that there is a coordinated understanding between central banks never to release this information into the public domain.

The most likely reason for this gold bar weight list secrecy is that knowledge of the contents of central bank gold bar weight lists could begin to provide some visibility into central bank gold operations such as gold lending, gold swaps, location swaps, undisclosed central bank gold sales, and importantly, foreign exchange and gold market interventions. This is because with weight list comparisons, gold bars from one central bank weight list could begin turning up in another central bank weight list or else turning up in the transparent gold holdings of vehicles such as gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds.

Conclusion

Instead of being fixated with the ECB’s continual disastrous and extended QE policy, perhaps some financial journalists could bring themselves to asking Mario Draghi some questions about the ECB gold reserves at the next ECB press briefing, questions such as the percentage split in storage distribution between the 5 ECB gold storage locations, why ECB gold is being held in New York, why is there no physical audit of the gold by the ECB, why does the ECB not publish a weight list of gold bar holdings, and do the ECB or its national central bank agents intervene into the gold market using ECB gold reserves.

The lackadaisical attitude of the ECB to its gold reserves by never physically auditing them is also a poor example to set for all 28 of the central bank members of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), and doesn’t bode well for any ESCB member central bank in being any less secretive than the ECB headquarters mothership.

If gold does re-emerge at the core of a revitalised international monetary system and takes on a currency backing role in the future, the haphazard and non-disclosed distribution of the ECB’s current gold reserves over 5 locations, the lack of physical gold audits, and the lack of public details of any of the ECB gold holdings won’t really inspire market confidence, and is proving to be even less transparent than similar metrics from that other secretive large gold holding bloc, i.e the USA.

 

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Trump’s Election May Strain The Euro To The Breaking Point

Submitted by Thorstein Polleit via The Mises Institute,

Many would not have discounted the notion that financial markets would take kindly to the announcement that Donald J. Trump won the election. But when the news broke on 9 November that he will indeed be the 45th president of the United States of America, prices on international stock exchanges climbed, the US dollar exchange rate soared, and interest rates went up.

All this suggests that international financial markets’ take on Trump’s presidency is much more cheerful than the gloomy outlook many would have predicted. Mr. Trump has made no bones about his thoughts on US foreign and economic policy, but it remains to be seen if and how he will put these thoughts into action.  

It seems Mr. Trump has no truck with the ranks of the globalists who, in their efforts to establish a new world order, have entangled the US in one ill-fated overseas adventure after another. Perhaps US foreign policy will change on his watch; it may well become far less aggressive. If Mr. Trump strikes a conciliatory tone in particular in his dealings with Russia, a more cooperative relationship could help deescalate conflicts in hotspots, say in the Middle and Far East. 

In terms of economic policy, Mr. Trump’s top priority appears to be boosting economic growth and creating jobs at home. How would his administration achieve this? Basically there are two options.

First: The new president may focus on the supply side, cutting taxes for firms and income earners, while curbing government spending.

 

Second: He may zero in on the demand side, encouraging more credit-financed spending on infrastructure and the like, while pursuing an overly easy monetary policy and taking up a protectionist stance on trade.

The first scenario would clearly be a regime changer. The US government machine, a juggernaut of swelling proportions, may not necessarily grind to a screeching halt, but its growth would be checked. This, of course, would be the boldest stateside political act in recent memory, and it would take some serious stamina to see it through.

But then Mr. Trump is a wealthy businessman with few allegiances to the party and little to fear from lobbyists. Perhaps he will capitalize on this independence and seize the opportunity to make a real difference. The situation is certainly auspicious enough with a Republican majority secured in Congress for the next two years.

The mere probability of the US economy improving under Trump’s presidency has financial markets bracing themselves for higher interest rates. It is now widely expected that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will act on its plan to edge up borrowing costs further in December. If this comes to pass, the US dollar may appreciate further against other currencies, in particular the euro.

One reason is that the yield gap between the US and the euro is set to widen, making the euro less attractive vis-à-vis the Greenback. On top of that, even if Mr. Trump’s administration does not buy wholesale into the neo-isolationist ideology he espoused during the election campaign, it won’t simply champion the cause of the globalists. As a result, the European integration project will be deprived of its most powerful intellectual and political advocate.

This should add to investor uncertainty as far as the euro’s future is concerned. The United Kingdom’s decision in June to do the “Brexit” has already dealt a heavy blow to peoples’ confidence in the European Union (EU) being an economically and politically desirable institution. The chances of the project stalling are now even greater, and the ties that bind the union together may even unravel.

All this raises the question as to the single currency’s raison d'être. Doubts about its viability will exacerbate the economic misery especially of weak euro member states. Investment in these countries will slow down, further suppressing production and employment. What is more, many euro zone banks engage in cross-border lending, and they will of course suffer if the euro’s very existence is called into question.

Investors are already reluctant to extend new capital to ailing euro banks in view of their low profitability and sizable liabilities with so many bad loans on their books. More than ever, the weal and woe of euro banks is in the hands of the European Central Bank (ECB). However, the unhealthy liaison between the ECB and governments and banks in the euro area could now take a really bad turn.

On 26 July 2012, ECB president Mario Draghi pledged that “the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” The ECB may now be forced to do exactly that: To buy ever greater amounts of debt against issuing ever greater amounts of money to prevent interest rates from rising and keep overstretched governments and ailing banks from defaulting on their obligations.

If it turns out to be a regime changer — by doing away with economic practices hitherto held dear by the current establishment, — Mr. Trump’s presidency could actually test the single currency to the breaking point. A really plausible scenario is that sooner or later the ECB, desperately trying to prevent the euro debt pyramid from collapsing, pursues a policy of high inflation before the euro eventually falls apart.

via http://ift.tt/2gkRUDo Tyler Durden

Giddy Russians Seek To Rename Street After Donald Trump To “Make Our City Great Again”

Residents in the small Russian town of Ryazan, apparently excited by the election of Donald Trump in the United States, have started a petition to have a street in their town renamed “Street of Donald Trump.”  The petition was started on “change.org,” and, among other things, advocates for the name change because “recently elected U.S. President Donald Trump is a big friend of Russia and is a supporter of traditional values.”

Per HeatStreet, the petition has already gathered enough support to be officially reviewed by authorities which means residents are well on their way to “making Ryazan great again.” 

The petition for a Trump Street has turned out to be quite popular. It’s gathered enough signatures to be officially reviewed by the authorities.

 

“With a street named after Donald Trump we can make Ryazan great again,” said one of the supporters of the petition.

 

“I’m signing because I was born in Ryazan and Trump is a great person and will change everything for the better,” said another.

Here is a loosely translated version of the petition from Google translate:

Russia

 

Despite the enthusiasm among many, some residents were slightly less supportive of the “Street of Donald Trump” idea and suggested that the town would end up “looking like idiots” if Trump imposed sanctions against Russia.

Some commenters, however,  expressed caution: “You should have waited to see Trump’s first moves. What if he will support the sanctions against Russia? You will look like idiots then.”

 

Despite the petition’s popularity, a city official thinks it’s unlikely the street will actually be renamed. “According to Ryazan city regulations,” the official said, “the street can be named after a famous person, Russian or foreign, only five years after the death of this person”.

Meanwhile, here in the U.S., a 15-year-old student at Richard Montgomery High School in Rockville, Maryland had to be rushed to the hospital after being beaten up by 4 other students for wearing a “Make America Great Again” hat.

Hundreds of students from Richard Montgomery High School were carrying signs reading, “Love Trumps Hate,” and chanting near the Rockville courthouse on Maryland Avenue in a protest that began at about 10 a.m. when a 15-year-old boy wearing one of the Trump campaign’s “Make American Great Again” hats was attacked by about four students.

 

The group surrounded the teen, punching him repeatedly, then threw him to the ground and kicked him repeatedly in the ribs.

 

“They jumped him and beat him up pretty bad,” Max Stucky, a bystander who witnessed the attack, told WTOP.

 

The teen, who wasn’t seriously hurt, was seen clutching the back of his head in pain. He was helped to his feet by medics and taken to a hospital in an ambulance.

And still no word from Obama and Clinton on this senseless violence…we’re still waiting…

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