Category: zerohedge

With less than 2 weeks left until the November 8 presidential election, and perhaps to celebrate Hillary Clinton’s birthday, Wikileaks continued its ongoing Podesta dump by unveiling another 1,508 emails in the latest Part 19 of its release, bringing the total emails released so far to exactly 33,042.

RELEASE: The Podesta Emails Part 19 #PodestaEmails #PodestaEmails19 #HillaryClinton https://t.co/wzxeh70oUm http://pic.twitter.com/Ohf1SRQlpA

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) October 26, 2016

As usual we will go parse through the disclosure and bring you some of the more notable ones

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In the latest revelation sure to reignite accusations of collusion between the Clinton campaign and the DOJ, among the recent batch of hacked emails released by Wikileaks, we learn that the day after Hillary Clinton testified in front of the House Select Committee on Benghazi last October, John Podesta, Hillary’s campaign chairman met for dinner with a small group of well-connected friends, including Peter Kadzik, who is currently a top official at the US Justice Department serving as Assistant Attorney General for Legislative Affairs.

Peter Kadzik, with lobbyist Tony Podesta, brother of John Podesta.

The post-Benghazi dinner was attended by Podesta, Kadzik, superlobbyist Vincent Roberti and other well-placed Beltway fixtures. The first mention of personal contact between Podesta and Kadzik in the Wikileaks dump is in an Oct. 23, 2015 email sent out by Vincent Roberti, a lobbyist who is close to Podesta and his superlobbyist brother, Tony Podesta. In it, Roberti refers to a dinner reservation at Posto, a Washington D.C. restaurant.  The dinner was set for 7:30 that evening, just one day after Clinton gave 11 hours of testimony to the Benghazi Committee.

Podesta and Kadzik met several months later for dinner at Podesta’s home, another email shows. Another email sent on May 5, 2015, Kadzik’s son asked Podesta for a job on the Clinton campaign.

As the Daily Caller notes, the dinner arrangement “is just the latest example of an apparent conflict of interest between the Clinton campaign and the federal agency charged with investigating the former secretary of state’s email practices.” As one former U.S. Attorney tells told the DC, the exchanges are another example of the Clinton campaign’s “cozy relationship” with the Obama Justice Department.

The hacked emails confirm that Podesta and Kadzik were in frequent contact. In one email from January, Kadzik and Podesta, who were classmates at Georgetown Law School in the 1970s, discussed plans to celebrate Podesta’s birthday. And in another sent last May, Kadzik’s son emailed Podesta asking for a job on the Clinton campaign.

“The political appointees in the Obama administration, especially in the Department of Justice, appear to be very partisan in nature and I don’t think had clean hands when it comes to the investigation of the private email server,” says Matthew Whitaker, the executive director of the Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust, a government watchdog group.

“It’s the kind of thing the American people are frustrated about is that the politically powerful have insider access and have these kind of relationships that ultimately appear to always break to the benefit of Hillary Clinton,” he added, comparing the Podesta-Kadzik meetings to the revelation that Attorney General Loretta Lynch met in private with Bill Clinton at the airport in Phoenix days before the FBI and DOJ investigating Hillary Clinton.

Kadzik’s role at the DOJ, where he started in 2013, is particularly notable Kadzik, as helped spearhead the effort to nominate Lynch, who was heavily criticized for her secret meeting with the former president.

A Long, Friendly History

Podesta and Kadzik have a long history, one which has surprisingly gone mostly unnoticed during the ongoing Clinton email scandal. As DC helps summarize, Kadzik represented Podesta during the Monica Lewinsky investigation. And in the waning days of the Bill Clinton administration, Kadzik lobbied Podesta on behalf of Marc Rich, the fugitive who Bill Clinton controversially pardoned on his last day in office.

That history is cited by Podesta in another email hacked from his Gmail account. In a Sept. 2008 email, which the Washington Free Beacon flagged last week, Podesta emailed an Obama campaign official to recommend Kadzik for a supportive role in the campaign. Podesta, who would later head up the Obama White House transition effort, wrote that Kadzik was a “fantastic lawyer” who “kept me out of jail.”

As the DC Chuck Ross notes, it is unclear to which case Podesta was referring and whether he was joking about prison. But Podesta was caught in a sticky situation in both the Lewinsky affair and the Rich pardon scandal. As deputy chief of staff to Clinton in 1996, Podesta asked then-United Nations ambassador Bill Richardson to hire the 23-year-old Lewinsky. In April 1996, the White House transferred Lewinsky from her job as a White House intern to the Pentagon in order to keep her and Bill Clinton separate. But the Clinton team also wanted to keep Lewinsky happy so that she would not spill the beans about her sexual relationship with Clinton.

Richardson later recounted in his autobiography that he offered Lewinsky the position but that she declined it.

Podesta made false statements to a grand jury impaneled by Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr for the investigation. But he defended the falsehoods, saying later that he was merely relaying false information from Clinton that he did not know was inaccurate at the time. “He did lie to me,” Podesta said about Clinton in a National Public Radio interview in 1998. Clinton was acquitted by the Senate in Feb. 1999 of perjury and obstruction of justice charges related to the Lewinsky probe. Kadzik, then a lawyer with the firm Dickstein Shapiro Morin & Oshinsky, represented Podesta through the fiasco.

Podesta had been promoted to Clinton’s chief of staff when he and Kadzik became embroiled in another scandal.

Kadzik was then representing Marc Rich, a billionaire financier who was wanted by the U.S. government for evading a $48 million tax bill. The fugitive, who was also implicated in illegal trading activity with nations that sponsored terrorism, had been living in Switzerland for 17 years when he sought the pardon. To help Rich, Kadzik lobbied Podesta heavily in the weeks before Clinton left office on Jan. 20, 2001. A House Oversight Committee report released in May 2002 stated that “Kadzik was recruited into Marc Rich’s lobbying campaign because he was a long-time friend of White House Chief of Staff John Podesta.”

The report noted that Kadzik contacted Podesta at least seven times regarding Rich’s pardon.

On top of the all-hands-on-deck lobbying effort, Rich’s ex-wife, Denise Rich, had doled out more than $1 million to the Clintons and other Democrats prior to the pardon. She gave $100,000 to Hillary Clinton’s New York Senate campaign and another $450,000 to the Clinton presidential library.

Kadzik’s current role

In his current role as head of the Office of Legislative Affairs, Kadzik handles inquiries from Congress on a variety of issues. In that role he was not in the direct chain of command on the Clinton investigation. The Justice Department and FBI have insisted that career investigators oversaw the investigation, which concluded in July with no charges filed against Clinton.

But Kadzik worked on other Clinton email issues in his dealings with Congress. Last November, he denied a request from Republican lawmakers to appoint a special counsel to lead the investigation.

In a Feb. 1, 2016 letter in response to Kadzik, Florida Rep. Ron DeSantis noted that Kadzik had explained “that special counsel may be appointed at the discretion of the Attorney General when an investigation or prosecution by the Department of Justice would create a potential conflict of interest.”

DeSantis, a Republican, suggested that Lynch’s appointment by Bill Clinton in 1999 as U.S. Attorney in New York may be considered a conflict of interest. He also asserted that Obama’s political appointees — a list which includes Kadzik — “are being asked to impartially execute their respective duties as Department of Justice officials that may involve an investigation into the activities of the forerunner for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.”

It is unknown if Kadzik responded to DeSantis’ questions.

Kadzik’s first involvement in the Clinton email brouhaha came in a Sept. 24, 2015 response letter to Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Chuck Grassley in which he declined to confirm or deny whether the DOJ was investigating Clinton. Last month, Politico reported that Kadzik angered Republican lawmakers when, in a classified briefing, he declined to say whether Clinton aides who received DOJ immunity were required to cooperate with congressional probes.

Kadzik also testified at a House Oversight Committee hearing last month on the issue of classifications and redactions in the FBI’s files of the Clinton email investigation.

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Wholesale Inventories were unchanged year-over-year for the first time since June 2010 (up 0.2% MoM).

 

However, below the surface things are worrisome with motor vehicle inventories up again MoM and up a shocking 9.0% YoY. Wholesale inventories-to-sales ratios are improving modestly but remain deep in recessionary territory.

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Submitted by Antonius Aquinas,

The US Presidential campaign has demonstrated once again that the mainstream mass media is still the dominant force and arbitrator of political events and if it is successful in pushing the Wicked Witch of Chappaqua past the finish line this November, it may have achieved its greatest triumph.  During the campaign’s stretch run, the mainstream media has used every form and variety of spin, distortion, half truth, calumny, and lies in its diabolical effort to make Killary Rotten Clinton President of the USSA.

The mass media – television, newspapers, movies, the Entertainment industry, book publishing, advertising, and now sports – is part of society’s opinion molding movers and shakers which form part of what Noble Prize winning economist F.A. Hayek called “intellectuals.”  This all important group are not simply nerdy academic professors with patches on their sleeves, but are those who have the ability to shape public opinion, as Hayek describes:

It is the intellectuals in this sense who decide what views and opinions are to reach us, which facts are important enough to be told us, and in what form and from what angle they are to be presented.  Whether we shall ever learn of the results of the work of the expert and the original thinker depends mainly on their decision. *

Since at least the 1960s, the dominant opinion-molding sector of the mass media has been the electronic media, which has far outpaced newsprint and academia in influence.  While its power may be on the wane in the Internet Age, it is still the most powerful and important tool in the political elites arsenal for imparting their agenda.

The electronic media, through its use of pictures and images, has been able to manipulate political outcomes and shape public policy discussions at almost every turn.  As every media realist has long understood, the mainstream media has long been controlled by the Left which has used this power to counter any opposition to its narrative.

The major media outlets are controlled by five corporate giants – Time Warner, Disney, Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., Bertelsmann of Germany, and Viacom – the largest purveyors of crony capitalism and cultural Marxism the world has ever witnessed.  No dissent is allowed to be heard on these outlets nor is there any hope of career advancement for journalists or writers if the Leftist paradigm is not trumpeted.

A free society does not exist because of a free press.  In fact, every society which has naively allowed a free press to exist, invariably finds that the press will seek to undermine it, especially its most innovative and successful individuals.  The reason, as Hayek so brilliantly explains, is that the press, and in this age the electronic media, is part of the intelligentsia which by its nature is envy ridden since it has little to offer the world in the production of actual goods and services.  Its members, therefore, are constantly denigrating their betters.

Such a mindset and sociological disposition will naturally lead members of the mass media to support politicians who will regulate, tax, and control the productive members of society.  This explains, in part, their vile and hysterical opposition to Donald Trump.  For Trump, unlike his crazed and corrupt opponent, has largely gained his wealth and position through his own intelligence, foresight, and hard work.

Offsetting media bias is a Herculean task and can only be done by one who is savvy and financially independent enough.  This is why Donald Trump has gotten as far has he has and has used his leverage to heroically call out the manipulations of the mainstream media.

It is surprising, therefore, that Trump agreed to the Presidential “debates” in a forum orchestrated by the media with “moderators” who would be gunning to undermine him at every turn.  Better to have chosen a neutral environment with an honest third party participant such as Brian Lamb of C-Span.  Agreeing to the same rigged debate format was a tactical mistake.

For anyone to seriously challenge the American Leviathan, it must be understood that the mainstream media is a part of that despotic structure and it too must be neutered.  Donald Trump has done more than any Presidential candidate to expose the treachery of the mainstream media, now others must take up the cause.

via http://ift.tt/2eQJb6H Tyler Durden

Earlier this month, Deutsche Bank stock was shaken following a Bloomberg report that Deutsche Bank’s hedge fund clients had withdrawn billions in margin cash from the bank’s prime brokerage unit, adding a shade of liquidity concerns to the bank’s ongoing capitalization woes. It now appears that DB has continued to hemmorhage cash with the FT reporting that the German lender’s exchange traded fund unit has seen billions in outflows as Germany’s biggest lender considers whether to sell parts of its asset management business.

Investors have pulled $8bn from Deutsche’s ETF arm so far this year. This is an unwelcome collapse after a strong performance in 2015 when the unit attracted positive inflows of $28bn, according to ETFGI, a London-based consultancy. DB’s clients have been heading for the exit after the bank was threatened with a $14bn claim by the DOJ.

“The noise around Deutsche Bank has clearly not helped its ETF business,” said a senior executive from a rival asset manager who did not wish to be named.

As the FT adds, Deutsche has put aside €5.5bn to cover potential litigation costs but the threat of a larger bill has forced it to consider selling a minority stake in its asset management arm, its best-performing division in recent years. However, efforts to raise fresh capital could be hindered by the outflows from the ETF unit, which is widely regarded as one of the crown jewels of Deutsche’s asset management operations.

To be sure, DB defended itself when a spokesman for the bank said the ETF outflows were “part of the broader industry-wide” trend away from currency-hedged ETFs. The outflows account for 10 per cent of Deutsche’s total ETF assets under management, and indeed the difficulties at Deutsche coincide with a period of upheaval across the European ETF industry. A cut-throat price war led by BlackRock and Vanguard, the world’s two largest fund managers, has forced rivals to abandon their strategic plans.

Still, the cash strapped bank may find it more complicated to unwind positions and provide the needed cash at a time when each of its moves is scrutinized under a microscope.

DB is not alone: Source, the London-based ETF provider, has been put up for sale fewer than three years after being acquired by Warburg Pincus, the private equity group. Commerzbank, Germany’s second-largest lender, has also confirmed it plans to spin off its ETF business into a separate unit.

Some industry observers believe Deutsche’s ETF business could make an attractive acquisition target for a rival looking to establish a foothold in the market. A former Deutsche employee said that efforts had been made in the past to find a buyer for the ETF unit, which has assets of $76.9bn and ranks as the fifth-largest ETF provider globally.

“We heard a lot of rumours that senior management put [the ETF business] up for sale several times but they were unable to get much traction for the price they were asking,” he said.

It wouldn’t be the first time Deutsche has tried to monetize some of its better performing assets. Following a review in 2011, the Frankfurt-based lender tried to sell large chunks of the asset management business but a potential deal with Guggenheim Partners, the US investment firm, fell apart in 2012. The bank subsequently merged the asset management division with the bank’s wealth unit, bringing the two together under the leadership of the scandal-plagued Michele Faissola whose involvmenet in a series of Monte Paschi deals has prompted the Italian government to launch an investigation into his “market manipulation” activities. As reported previously, the former investment banker is one of four executives to have led the asset management division in as many years. His involvement in the suicide of former Deutsche Banker William Broksmit was profiled here recently. Faissola’s departure from Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management last year led to another reversal: the separation of the asset and wealth management divisions just three years after they had been brought together.

via http://ift.tt/2eakJNr Tyler Durden

A couple of days ago we noted that protests in North Dakota, over the Dakota Access Pipeline, were growing increasingly hostile with police arresting over 125 people just last weekend alone.  Another startling discovery from the weekend was reports of police efforts to shoot down multiple media drones which some thought indicated an increasing hostility toward press seeking to cover the protests.   Certainly, Deia Schlosberg, a documentarian who was recently charged with three felonies for filming activists shutting off oil pipelines, would tend to agree. 

According to Schlosberg, she was charged with conspiracy to theft of property, conspiracy to theft of services and conspiracy to tampering with or damaging a public service, all of which carry a combined 45-year maximum sentence.  According to RT, the actions filmed by Schlosberg were part of a multi-state protest by “Climate Direct Action” which vandalized five pipeline valve stations in multiple states to protest the movement of tar-sands oil from Canada into the US, and to show solidarity with ongoing protests in North Dakota.  That said, Schlosberg claims she never participated in the illegal activities and filmed from public land.

“From the beginning, I was just dumbfounded by the charges,” Schlosberg told RT America’s Ed Schultz. “They seem to come from out of nowhere.”

 

She said she understood the “unprecedented nature of this action and knew that it wasn’t likely to be covered by mainstream media.”

 

“I was doing my job,” she added. “I was documenting a climate action.”

 

What precipitated her arrest is difficult to discern, she said.

 

“I was there. I was documenting and they didn’t know what my involvement was. I told them I was a filmmaker and that I was filming from public property, and they still put me in jail for 53 hours and (charged) me with three counts of conspiracy, which are all felonies.”

 

Below is an example of the actions taken by Michael Foster, who clearly should face criminal charges, which Schlosberg claims she filmed from public land.

 

Meanwhile, filmmakers were also arrested in Washington state for filming similar actions and were charged with felonies carrying sentences of up to 30 years and fines of up $46,000.

“I think North Dakota is in a state of emergency, and I think everything is elevated there, tensions are elevated,” Schlosberg said of her charges. “But, two other (documentary) filmmakers who were filming the same action that was happening in Washington State at a pipeline there also were charged with felonies.”

 

The filmmakers arrested in the Washington state action are Lindsey Goodwin-Grayzel and her photographer Carl Davis, who both face felony charges for robbery and trespassing for filming an activist as he broke into a Trans Mountain Pipeline facility in Skagit County. They each face a maximum penalty of 30 years in prison, a fine of $46,000, or both, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

Josh Fox, a documentarian known for his film, Gasland, said that Schlosberg’s treatment is part of an intimidation campaign in North Dakota adding that “it’s clear that this state is trying to repress journalism.”

“I never thought her gravest threat would be from our own government and from the police,” he said, adding that Schlosberg’s treatment is part of an intimidation campaign in North Dakota.

 

“It’s clear that this state is trying to repress journalism,” Fox told RT. “It’s doing something that is essentially immoral and we believe should be illegal. It is against the First Amendment to arrest reporters who are simply trying to bring the public a story that they need to hear because the mainstream media is not covering it. And, you know, I don’t think the mainstream media would be talking about fracking, or Standing Rock [protests over the DAPL], or any of these issues if it wasn’t for documentarians like the amazing Deia Schlosberg sitting next to me and a lot of other citizen journalists who are bringing these issues to the fore.”

While it’s difficult to support some left-wing activist trespassing on private property and effectively causing $100,000s of damage, it is quite concerning that press would be targeted for punishment merely for filming such activities.  Or, perhaps this is why the mainstream media has failed to cover Hillary’s many criminal activities?

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• Florida Once Again a Focus in 2016 Campaign (WSJ)
• Trump Has Slim Edge in Bloomberg Poll of Florida (BBG)
• NATO seeks troops to deter Russia on eastern flank (Reuters)
• Arbs Stay on Sidelines of AT&T-Time Warner Deal (WSJ)
• Holiday Forecast for Apple Crumbles (BBG)
• Saudi Arabia Faces Tough OPEC Equation With Mounting ‘Exemptions’ (BBG)
• Oil Companies Shift Exploration Tactics, Curb Spending (WSJ)
• The SEC’s Beef With Shadow Banks Could Hurt Some Businesses (BBG)
• Calais Jungle clearance resumes, tents and shelters ablaze (Reuters)
• African Terror Franchise Now Has Competition From Islamic State (WSJ)
• Empty Space Haunts 5th Avenue as Retailers Balk at Rent Hikes (BBG)
• Inside the battle to succeed supreme leader Khamenei (FT)
• Delta Creates a Class Higher Than First Class (BBG)
• Apple Pins Hopes on iPhone 7 as Profit, Revenue Decline (WSJ)
• China to carry out more military drills in South China Sea (Reuters)
• Philippines’ Duterte tells Japan his China visit was just economics, blasts U.S (Reuters)
• Tata Group in Turmoil After Chairman’s ‘Bizarre’ Ousting (BBG)
• Ousted Tata Chief Says Group Faces $18 Billion in Writedowns (BBG)
• Pope Francis the manager – surprising, secretive, shrewd (Reuters)
• Goldman Hopes You Won’t Notice How Many People It’s Laying Off (BBG)
• Clouds gather in rooftop solar’s biggest U.S. market (Reuters)
• Meet the Japanese Tech Billionaire Who Says He Can Do No Wrong (BBG)
• London House Prices Forecast to Plunge as Brexit Chokes Market (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Volkswagen AG received final approval of a $14.7 billion deal reached with consumers and government agencies that could get nearly half a million diesel vehicles off U.S. roads. http://on.wsj.com/2e86OaJ

– Facebook Inc COO Sheryl Sandberg said Facebook is a technology company that builds tools rather than a media company that makes its own stories. http://on.wsj.com/2eJ7HId

– AT&T Inc will launch a $35-a-month “mobile-centric” video service, CEO Randall Stephenson said, calling it an example of how prices won’t rise with the carrier’s $85.4 billion deal to buy Time Warner Inc. http://on.wsj.com/2eGmC6M

– General Motors Co is enlisting digital smarts from International Business Machines Corp’s Watson in an effort to leapfrog other tech companies inside the car. http://on.wsj.com/2f5kkRq

– Media mogul Sumner Redstone has sued two former companions, alleging they abused him, took more than $150 million and left him in debt. http://on.wsj.com/2eQsqJK

– National Intelligence director James Clapper said it appeared that a “nonstate actor” was behind a massive cyberattack last week that briefly blocked access to websites including Twitter Inc and Netflix Inc. http://on.wsj.com/2eDmqGP

– The UK said it would deploy tanks and drones alongside 800 troops in Eastern Europe, the first of several expected moves by NATO to help counter growing fears about Russia in the region. http://on.wsj.com/2dUjZ1h

 

FT

– Lockheed Martin said it expects a 7 percent rise in net sales next year. It was the biggest gainer on the S&P 500 and among industrials on Tuesday.

– Tension between Brussels and Italy over the country’s 2017 budget escalated on Tuesday after the European Commission imposed a 48-hour deadline on Rome to explain why it was breaking previous fiscal agreements.

– Ireland has now pitched to host the European banking Authority. The country, which suffered a bad banking crisis, is the latest in the rush to take over London-based EU institutions.

– The BBC’s next chief will be paid 10,000 pounds lesser than the predecessor, the UK government announced. The new chair will serve a fixed term of four years and will be extended only in “exceptional circumstances”.

 

NYT

– Three judges at Washington’s federal appeals court on Monday questioned the government’s analysis that led to MetLife’s designation as a “too big to fail” financial company, as the Justice Department appeals a lower court’s decision to strip the insurance giant of that label. http://nyti.ms/2dExRy9

– TD Ameritrade announced on Monday that it would acquire Scottrade Financial Services, a rival discount brokerage, for $4 billion, in a bid for scale at a time when small investors are losing their taste for stock trading. http://nyti.ms/2dEyI1X

– The New York Times has made another bet on so-called service journalism, with the acquisition of the product recommendation site the Wirecutter and its sibling, the Sweethome. The all-cash transaction, worth slightly more than $30 million, closed on Monday. http://nyti.ms/2dEzxI1

– In a surprise move on Monday, the German authorities withdrew approval for the takeover of Aixtron SE, a domestic semiconductor firm, by a Chinese bidder – a deal that was set to be an emblem of a new push by Chinese companies to acquire cutting-edge technology businesses and a sign of Berlin’s tolerance for such moves. http://nyti.ms/2dEwteW

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** The proportion of Metro Vancouver homes left vacant or not used as a primary residence has almost doubled since 2001, a time when the region’s residential real estate sector increasingly became a magnet for both local and foreign investors, according to a new study based on 30 years of census data. http://bit.ly/2eFsjQX

** Three divisions of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce have reached a settlement deal with the Ontario Securities Commission after revealing they overcharged fees to clients for up to 14 years. http://bit.ly/2eR8SVF

** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says financial donation limits in federal politics are too low for wealthy donors to buy influence with his cabinet ministers. http://bit.ly/2eEz2xp

NATIONAL POST

** Cord cutting took a bigger bite out of Canada’s broadcast industry last year as younger audiences increasingly listened to music and watched television over the Internet, according to the federal broadcast regulator. http://bit.ly/2eR7jqZ

** The use of short-term payday loans – where charges in some provinces can be equivalent to an annual percentage rate of 500 per cent – has doubled recently to include 4 percent of Canadian households, according to the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada.

The survey of 1,500 payday loan users showed that many Canadians are unaware of the high cost compared to alternative sources of funds. http://bit.ly/2dVFYF0

 

Britain

The Times

Heathrow is drawing up plans to build its new runway at least eight metres above Britain’s busiest motorway amid warnings of gridlocked roads and a 3.5 billion pounds bill for the taxpayer. http://bit.ly/2fdxfjE

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc could be on course to finally sell its Williams & Glyn business ahead of a deadline that could lead to Brussels imposing draconian penalties on the taxpayer-backed lender over its failure to offload the unit. http://bit.ly/2fdvS4r

The Guardian

Hancock Prospecting, controlled by Australia’s richest woman Gina Rinehart, signed a 245 million pound deal with Sirius Minerals Plc. http://bit.ly/2fdBI5y

A transatlantic British Airways flight from San Francisco to London made an emergency landing in Vancouver after crew members fell ill. All 25 staff, including the three pilots, were taken to hospital for medical checks after landing, a BA spokeswoman said, adding all personnel had been discharged. http://bit.ly/2fdzeUL

The Telegraph

Vodafone Group Plc is braced for a multi-million pound fine from the industry regulator after an 18-month double-probe into its suspected customer failings. http://bit.ly/2fdAffN

3i Group Plc has decided to sell its debt management business to Investcorp for 222 million pounds, leaving the firm to work on its private equity and infrastructure investments. http://bit.ly/2fdAjvW

Sky News

A U.S. court has approved Volkswagen AG’s $15 billion settlement package for almost half a million customers in America over the diesel emissions scandal. http://bit.ly/2fdzO51

Department store chain John Lewis has appointed Paula Nickolds as its first female managing director. http://bit.ly/2fdFagI

The Independent

Theresa May warned of the economic peril of leaving the EU during a meeting with investment bankers just weeks before the Brexit vote, in an audio recording leaked to the Guardian. http://ind.pn/2fdAnff

 

via http://ift.tt/2euGSJh Tyler Durden

Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert have interviewed Jan Skoyles to discuss how gold is the “Kardashian of Commodities” and “future-proofing your portfolio with gold”.

Topics covered are

• Double Down asks Jan Skoyles, of Goldcore.com, if there is enough gold in the world to hedge against a President Trump
• U.S. Election – Trump and Clinton most hated Presidential candidates in history
• Goldman Sachs says that gold is a ‘good hedge against politicians’
• Skoyles says that, in the West, gold is considered ‘the Kardashian of commodities,’ something not taken seriously as an investment — until the likes of Goldman Sachs says it might be so
• Dubai and Middle East is “environment where people automatically understand gold”
• Gold reaching new highs in Russian rubles and South African rand and close to new highs in pounds sterling
• UK media do not cover gold and gold price in sterling so people do not understand
• Keiser and Herbert point out how gold has value because people believe it has value
• BBC Newsnight studio has “religious moment” when people are drawn to gold bullion
• How gold will protect from bail-ins
• The importance of having outright legal owership and being able to take delivery of individual coins and bars

Listen to interview here

 

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold Holds Near Three-Week High as India Buys Ahead of Festival (Bloomberg)

Gold Prices Rise on Dimmer Economic Outlook (WSJ)

Gold extends gains, buoyed by Indian festival demand (Reuters)

Consumer confidence droops ahead of presidential election (MarketWatch)

Rare gold coin worth £250,000 found in boy’s ‘toy’ treasure chest (Telegraph)

How One Billionaire Became A Gold Bug (ZeroHedge)

China could be on verge of gold buying boom (Mining)

As yuan sinks, Goldman sees rising gold demand in China (Qata)

A long-term gold bull wants to see this happen before he buys more (MarketWatch)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

26 Oct: USD 1,273.90, GBP 1,043.45 & EUR 1,166.13 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 1,269.30, GBP 1,037.53 & EUR 1,165.85 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 1,267.00, GBP 1,034.89 & EUR 1,163.61 per ounce
21 Oct: USD 1,263.95, GBP 1,033.79 & EUR 1,160.69 per ounce
20 Oct: USD 1,269.20, GBP 1,034.65 & EUR 1,156.75 per ounce
19 Oct: USD 1,269.75, GBP 1,031.29 & EUR 1,154.97 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 1,261.65, GBP 1,031.15 & EUR 1,145.33 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

26 Oct: USD 17.66, GBP 14.46 & EUR 16.17 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 17.73, GBP 14.49 & EUR 16.30 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 17.64, GBP 14.41 & EUR 16.19 per ounce
21 Oct: USD 17.51, GBP 14.34 & EUR 16.08 per ounce
20 Oct: USD 17.60, GBP 14.35 & EUR 16.03 per ounce
19 Oct: USD 17.69, GBP 14.38 & EUR 16.11 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 17.65, GBP 14.37 & EUR 16.03 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Value of Gold – Unlike Paper Currency Gold Maintained Value Throughout Ages
– Fed Risks Lehman Crisis As US Recession Storm Gathers
– Silver Eagle Demand ‘Returned with a Vengeance’
– Cashless Society – War On Cash to Benefit Gold?
– “Higher Gold Prices” On Global Trade Slowdown – HSBC
– Euro “Will Collapse” As Is “House of Cards” Warns Architect of Euro
– Property Bubble In Ireland Developing Again
– “Gold Is A Great Hedge Against Politicians” – Goldman
– Sell Gold Now – Time To Liquidate Gold ETF, Pooled and Digital Gold
– Gold In GBP Up 43% YTD – “Massive Twin Deficits” To Impact UK Assets
– Ron Paul Says “Gold Going Up” Whether Trump Or Clinton Elected
– Gold Trading COT Report “Means Lower – Then Much Higher – Prices Coming”
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It is becoming increasingly clear that the US election will come down to a handful of “must win” battleground states, and with Hillary Clinton pulling away from Trump in recent polling, many had written off the republican candidate. However, momentum may be shifting Trump’s way after the latest poll from Bloomberg showed that Donald Trump has regained a slim advantage in one of the most important battleground states, Florida, as key independent voters narrowly broke his way.

The poll found that the Republican presidential nominee has 45% to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 43% among likely voters when third-party candidates are included, the poll found. In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump holds on to a fractional lead with 46% to Clinton’s 45%. Most notable is that among independents, Trump gets 43% to Clinton’s 41% in a head-to-head contest. When third-party candidates are included, Trump picks up 1 point with independents while Clinton drops to 37%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson taking 9 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein getting 5 percent.

The surprising poll result promptly sent the Mexian peso, considered a market indicator of Trump’s victory chances, lower when it was announced early this morning.

Cited by Bloomberg, pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey said that “this race may come down to the independent vote,” said . “Right now, they tilt for Trump. By a narrow margin, they opted for Obama over Romney in 2012.” President Barack Obama won independents in 2012 by 3 percentage points, and the overall state by less than a point, his narrowest victory that year.

Trump’s showing in this poll is stronger than in other recent surveys in the state. Clinton had an advantage of 3.1 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics Florida average on Tuesday.

Despite the turnaround in the state, it would not be sufficient on its own: Florida, one of two states Trump calls home, is rated by major election forecasters as a toss-up or leaning toward Clinton. If Trump won all the states Mitt Romney did in 2012, plus Florida’s 29 Electoral College votes, he’d still be 35 electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win the White House.

Bloomberg notes that this poll was conducted Friday through Monday, covering the first two days of Trump’s three-day campaign swing there. Both campaigns are focusing heavily on the state in terms of advertising and time. Clinton planned to be there Wednesday for the second day in a row and Obama will stump there on her behalf on Friday.

The survey included 953 registered voters who said they’d already cast ballots or plan to do so, including an oversample of 148 Hispanics to allow for a more statistically solid analysis of their views. The margin of error on responses from just Hispanics is plus or minus 6.7 percentage points.

Demographic details:

• Clinton gets 51 percent of the Sunshine State’s Hispanic vote and 49 percent of those under age 35 in the two-way contest, while Trump has 51 percent of seniors and 50 percent of those without college degrees. Other groups Clinton wins handily in the two-way contest include non-whites (+33 points), those in the Miami area (+30 points), and those with college degrees (+10 points).
• Demographics where Trump is recording some of his biggest advantages over Clinton also include rural residents (+31 points), those in the more conservative northwest Florida Panhandle (+14 points), and those without college degrees (+9 points).
• Half of Trump’s supporters say they’re either mostly skeptical or convinced that Florida ballots won’t be counted accurately, while 54 percent of Clinton supporters are completely convinced voting counting will be precise.

“This poll suggests Trump has more opportunity in Florida than some think is realistic given his poor standing with Hispanics,” Selzer said. “But he does well with groups that are key to winning there, including older, more reliable voters. Clinton depends on younger voters and a strong presence at the polls of black and non-Cuban Hispanics.”

One of the key recent variables is newsflow surrounding the price surge in Obamacare, coming at a critical time for Hillary Clinton, who according to national polls, enjoys a comfortable lead. However, as we previewed back in May, the official admission surrounding Obamacare’s price hikes, expected to lead to double-digit price increases in 2017, will likely play a deciding role in turning if not the core voter base, then some of the key independent voters.

We expect that Trump will continue hammering on the message of Obamacare, and specifically its repeal, as a key factor in turning opinion his way with promises of repealing the broadly unpopular tax. Sure enough, moments ago Trump suggested that Obamacare will be a core focus of his upcoming campaigning over the last two weeks of the presidential cycle.

REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMACARE!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2016

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After economic optimism based on “soft” surveys and stronger than expected earnings lifted stocks around the globe in the first two days of the week, it was the turn of earnings to push them down again. European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all fall as oil prices slumped and Apple Inc.’s results disappointed.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 ended the day with a -0.38% drop led by declines in the consumer discretionary sector. Following disappointing earnings reports there were double digit declines for Under Armour and Whirlpool in the sector, while General Motors also tumbled -4% as investors looked through better than expected Q3 numbers and decided that we may have seen the peak in auto sales. Other corporates to feel the pinch yesterday following earnings were 3M, where shares closed down nearly -3%, and also Caterpillar.

Meanwhile, the big earnings focus was Apple’s Q4 numbers. While revenues for the fourth quarter confirmed the first annual decline in revenue since 2001, the headline sales number was in line with the consensus while earnings were a fraction ahead. Shares were initially up 3% in extended trading with that news however once the details were sifted through, shares reversed and were actually down over -3%. Guidance on margins for the December quarter was a little lower than hoped, while some also pointed towards a disappointing decline in selling prices for its smartphones.

Analysts were generally not happy with the world’s largest company by market cap: “Apple’s forward expectations aren’t great and it’s susceptible to more of a pullback,” said James Audiss, Sydney-based senior wealth manager at Shaw and Partners Ltd., which oversees about $7.5 billion. “Apple does speak directly to the region as a lot of its supply chain is in Asia, and that will add to weakness,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist in Sydney at CMC Markets. Asian earnings have been generally positive so far, he said.

Putting earnings season to date in context, the S&P has have barely moved since Alcoa Inc. kicked off the reporting season two weeks ago as U.S. and European earnings failed to offer clear cause for optimism. While the big banks, namely Goldman, Citigroup and JPMorgan started off Q3 season strong and beat forecasts, disappointing results from Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Daimler and Caterpillar, among others, have muddied the outlook for global growth. That leaves earnings from companies including Amazon.com, Deutsche Bank and Volkswagen in focus this week. Exacerbating the uncertainty: skepticism about major oil producers’ ability to agree output reductions.

The good news, at least for now, is that concern over the outcomes of the U.S. presidential election and Federal Reserve policy has eased, reducing overall volatility. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s GFSI Market Risk Index, a measure of future price swings implied by options trading on global equities, interest rates, currencies and commodities, has fallen to the lowest since 2014. Hillary Clinton’s odds of victory in next month’s vote are close to the highest on record at 86.5 percent, according to forecaster FiveThirtyEight, and futures trading indicates a 73 percent chance of a U.S. interest-rate hike by December.

After yesterday’s blistering move in commodities, especially metals, higher, crude oil slid 1.3% to $49.29 a barrel in New York in early trading as the market focused on a warning by Russia which confirmed our warning from the weekend, namely that output cuts aren’t an option for Russia, according to Interfax. American supplies rose by 4.75 million barrels last week, industry data showed before Wednesday’s release of official figures.  Putting further pressure on oil is the ongoing collapse in Brent time-spreads, with the Z6-Z6 spread, shown below, now the widest since January.

“The recent drop in oil prices is partially responsible but also indices continue to struggle for momentum as they attempt to break above their recent highs,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

In FX, the big movers was the Australian dollar which strengthened 0.6 percent after consumer prices in Australia increased 1.3% from a year earlier, in the latest quarter exceeding the previous period’s 1 percent gain.

Asia stocks slipped amid the declines in oil prices following a larger than expected build in the latest API report, with Apple earnings, especially among AAPL suppliers, pressuring local markets. Energy companies led declines on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which slipped 0.2 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong slid 1.4 percent, led by an 11 percent drop in Great Wall Motor Co. after recommendation downgrades. South Korea’s Kospi index declined 1.1 percent after Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. tumbled 5.1 percent on mounting concern the shipbuilding industry faces more job cuts.  The ASX 200 (-1.5%) underperformed after strong Australian Q3 CPI figures beat expectations, reducing the likelihood of further RBA easing. The Nikkei 225 (+0.15%) traded flat for a bulk of the session.

The Stoxx 600 lost 0.9 percent at 10:38 a.m. in London. The equity gauge has failed to post a daily increase since Thursday as investor sentiment oscillates on mixed earnings. Energy producers slipped with oil Wednesday, while miners declined after reaching their highest prices since August of last year. 

Among European companies moving on corporate results, as summarized by Bloomberg:

• Lloyds fell 1.8 percent as Britain’s largest mortgage lender posted a slide in profit after taking a charge to compensate customers who were wrongly sold loan insurance.
• Vinci SA dropped 1.8 percent, dragging construction companies lower, as its revenue fell.
• Bayer AG retreated 2.4 percent as its prescription-drugs unit, which is at risk of being sidelined after the takeover of Monsanto Co., spurred better-than-forecast earnings.
• Heineken NV fell 2.3 percent as Exane BNP Paribas noted that, while its third-quarter volumes beat forecasts, the “whisper” consensus estimate was probably higher than the official one.
• Kering SA, the owner of Gucci, led retailers to the best performance of the Stoxx 600’s 19 industry groups, rallying 7.6 percent after posting its fastest sales growth since 2012.
• Logitech International SA jumped 12 percent as the Swiss electronics manufacturer beat earnings and revenue projections.
• Banco Santander SA rose 0.9 percent after posting better-than-expected third-quarter profit.

The U.S will auction $34 billion of five-year nominal notes and $15 billion of two-year floating-rate debt. The yield on U.S. Treasuries due in a decade was little changed at 1.76 percent. American sovereign debt is saddling investors with losses for the third month in a row as speculation mounts that inflation will quicken and the Fed will boost interest rates. “The cyclical low for inflation rates has almost certainty past,” said Peter Jolly, the global head of markets research at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney, who predicts headline consumer-price gains in the U.S. will rise above 3 percent early next year if oil prices remain at current levels. “That will help change market perceptions of inflation ahead, and put to rest deflation fears for now.” China’s 10-year government bonds fell for a third day amid concern policy makers are looking to increase scrutiny of wealth-management products, a move that would curb the flow of funds to the debt market.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

• European equities trade lower across the board in a continuation of softer energy prices and participants digesting large cap earnings — most notably Apple
• Limited movement in the major FX pairings this morning, with some much welcome calm returning to the GBP pairs as Cable reclaims 1.2200
• Looking ahead, highlights include US services PM! and New Home sales, DoE inventories and a host of earnings including GSK, Coca-Cola and Comcast

* * *

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2129
• Stoxx 600 down 0.8% to 340
• FTSE 100 down 1% to 6946
• DAX down 1% to 10649
• German 10Yr yield up 2bps to 0.05%
• Italian 10Yr yield up 4bps to 1.42%
• Spanish 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.11%
• S&P GSCI Index down 0.7% to 370.5
• MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.2% to 140
• Nikkei 225 up 0.2% to 17392
• Hang Seng down 1% to 23325
• Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3116
• S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 5360
• US 10-yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.76%
• Dollar Index down 0.27% to 98.45
• WTI Crude futures down 1.4% to $49.27
• Brent Futures down 1.3% to $50.12
• Gold spot up less than 0.1% to $1,274
• Silver spot down less than 0.1% to $17.76

Top Healdine News

• Deutsche Bank Said to Weigh Alternatives to Cash Bonuses: Options said to include giving shares in non-core unit or bank
• Lloyds Shares Fall on Capital Questions, Quarterly Profit Drop: Some analysts discount capital boost driven by accounting move
• Apple Holiday Forecast Disappoints Given Samsung’s Troubles: Investors expected a more optimistic forecast for iPhone sales
• Big Oil Braces for Profit Pain as Refining Safety Net Slips: Global oil-processing margins shrank 42% last quarter: BP data
• Chevron’s 28 Years of Dividend Growth on the Line Amid Rout: ‘No one wants to be the CEO who breaks the streak.’ – analyst
• IBM Teams Up With Slack to Build Smarter Data-Crunching Chatbots: The two companies will release a developer toolkit that includes Watson technologies and can integrate easily into Slack
• Turbines From Outer Space Lift Lockheed Into New Energy Frontier: Company looking to commercialize its lithium-ion batteries

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks slipped amid the declines in oil prices following a larger than expected build in the latest API report, while Apple earnings also added to the softer tone in which the tech giant missed on its revenue despite an EPS beat. ASX 200 (-1.5%) underperformed following weak sales growth from Wesfarmers (-5%), while losses in the index were exacerbated after Australian Q3 CPI figures beat expectations, subsequently reducing the likelihood of further RBA easing. Shanghai Comp (-0.5%) and Hang Seng (-1.0%) tracked lower with the latter hampered by a spate of mixed earnings, while Great Wall Motors shares crashed amid reports that Beijing are to restrict the number of vehicles on road. The Nikkei 225 (+0.15%) traded flat for a bulk of the session with Apple suppliers pressured in Asia after its revenue declined 9%. In credit markets, JGB’s traded in subdued fashion, up marginally by 5 ticks. Australian bonds weakened in the wake of the CPI figures, in which the 10-yr yield pulled off session lows, while the curve saw some notable flattening.

Top Asian News

• With Economy Stable, China Steps Up Quest to Rein in Credit Risk: PBOC said to trial monitoring some wealth management products
• Tata Surprise Raises Deleveraging Doubts for Bond Investors: Tata Group was focused on being fiscally prudent under Mistry
• Jailed Former CNPC Head Says He Wrongly Approved Oilfield Sales: Former Chairman Jiang serving 16-year sentence for corruption
• Galaxy Casino Beat Quarterly Profit Estimates on Tourist Visits: Profit jumps 28%, lifted by mass market as VIP revenue fell
• Hyundai Motor Profit Declines 29% as Strikes Cut Production: Stronger won against U.S. dollar eroded repatriated earnings
• A Wary Japan Quietly Opens Its Back Door for Foreign Workers: Number of foreign workers almost doubles over eight years

In Europe, equities have opened softer this morning, (EuroStoxx -0.5%) following on from their Asian counterparts amid the fall in oil prices overnight and the fallout from earnings releases on both sides of the pond. Auto names underperform due to news of usage caps from the fastest growing market China, although Renault are in the green (+1.6%) due to a stellar earnings report. In the financial sector, Lloyds reported a slight miss on expectations and, adding to their woes, PPI issues remain unresolved with a further GBP lbin in charges (-3.1 %). In fixed income markets Gifts are softer this morning and drag the asset class lower as markets digest BoE’s Carney’s comment from yesterday, with some analysts noting that the comments point to no additional QE measures in November if at all. Supply today in the US comes in the form of a US 5yr and 2yr FRN.

Top European News

• Paschi CEO Sees Slow Pace of Consolidation Among Italian Banks: Investors are looking for ‘long-term stability,’ CEO says
• Ericsson Names Wallenberg Insider as CEO to Revive Its Fortunes: Analyst: ‘Hard to see this as a fresh wind coming in’
• Bayer Confident It Can Resolve Monsanto Product Overlap: Bayer crop business is resilient in difficult environment, CEO Werner Baumann says in Bloomberg TV interview
• Dong Hired JPMorgan for Advice, Hasn’t Decided to Divest Oil&Gas: not considered long-term strategic commitment

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%, extending Tuesday’s retreat from a seven-month high. The euro strengthened 0.2 percent. The Australian dollar strengthened 0.6 percent versus the greenback, the best performance among major currencies. In the last quarter, consumer prices in Australia increased 1.3 percent from a year earlier, exceeding the previous period’s 1 percent gain. Australia’s two-year bond yield increased by two percentage points to a one-week high of 1.69 percent. The probability that the central bank will cut interest rates by mid-2017 dropped to 29 percent in the swaps market, from 37 percent on Tuesday.

In commodities, crude oil slid 1.3 percent to $49.29 a barrel in New York. Output cuts aren’t an option for Russia, the nation’s envoy to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said, according to Interfax. American supplies rose by 4.75 million barrels last week, industry data showed before Wednesday’s release of official figures. U.S. natural gas futures extended their decline to a seven-week low before Energy Information Administration data on Thursday that’s forecast to show fuel inventories probably grew last week. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also expected through most of the U.S. from Oct. 30-Nov. 4, reducing demand for heating. Aluminum in Shanghai jumped as much as 5.2 percent to its highest level since 2014, extending a rebound on speculation that transport bottlenecks may have created a shortage for some users in China. The metal rose 0.3 percent in London. French electricity for delivery next month soared to a record after Electricite de France SA and the nation’s nuclear safety authority said that investigations at a third of the country’s 58 atomic reactors would unveil new anomalies. EDF’s reactors supply almost three quarters of France’s power.

Looking now at the day ahead, the highlight will likely be the remaining October flash PMI’s (both services and composite prints due). Also important is the advance goods trade balance reading for September where a slight widening in the deficit is expected. This might be one of the few remaining releases which could influence forecasts for Friday’s GDP print. Also due out is the wholesale inventories reading for last month, and new home sales data. Expect earnings to also continue to be front and centre with 43 S&P 500 companies due to report. The highlights include Coca-Cola and Boeing prior to the open. In Europe results from GSK and Bayer are also due.

* * *

US Event Calendar

• 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Oct. 21 (prior 0.6%)
• 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, Sept., est. -$60.5b (prior -$58.4b, revised -$59.2b)
• 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, Oct. P, est. 52.5 (prior 52.3)
• 10:00am: New Home Sales, Sept., est. 600k (prior 609k)
• 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The S&P 500 ended the day with a -0.38% decline with the consumer discretionary sector in particular enduring a tough day. Following disappointing earnings reports there were double digit declines for Under Armour and Whirlpool in the sector, while General Motors also tumbled -4% as investors looked through better than expected Q3 numbers and decided that we may have seen the peak in auto sales. Other corporates to feel the pinch yesterday following earnings were 3M, where shares closed down nearly -3%, and also Caterpillar. The latter’s earnings are always an interesting read given that Caterpillar is bit of a bellwether for the industrial sector. While earnings bettered expectations for Q3, revenues slid more than expected while the outlook for the remainder of 2016 and 2017 was a bit more subdued than hoped. Indeed it was noted that 2017 sales are not expected to be significantly different than 2016 and that the balance of risks, particularly in the first half of the year, was tilted to the downside. While management pointed towards the improvement in commodity prices, it was also acknowledged that many trucks remain idle and there has been little evidence of a pickup in orders for new equipment.

It was a similar end for markets in Europe too. The Stoxx 600 closed -0.35% and erased an early gain of as much as +0.40% with earnings in the healthcare sector in particular weighing (Novartis and Roche). European Banks (-0.34%) also ended a run of five straight sessions of gains. A big chunk of the blame was on the Italian Banking sector after Banca Monte dei Paschi swung incredibly, from an early 20% gain, to a -15% decline by the close. The intraday high to low change was actually 39%.

Meanwhile, the big focus since markets closed last night has been on the Apple Q4 numbers. While revenues for the fourth quarter confirmed the first annual decline in revenue since 2001, the headline sales number was in line with the consensus while earnings were a fraction ahead. Shares were initially up 3% in extended trading with that news however once the details were sifted through, shares reversed and were actually down a little over -2%. Guidance on margins for the December quarter was a little lower than hoped, while some also pointed towards a disappointing decline in selling prices for its smartphones.
This morning in Asia major bourses have generally followed the lead from the US yesterday. The Hang Seng (-0.69%), Shanghai Comp (-0.37%), Kospi (-1.33%) and ASX (-1.76%) are all currently in the red, while US equity index futures are also trending lower following those Apple numbers. Only the Nikkei (+0.06%) is up as we go to print.

Also weighing on bourses this morning is the decline for Oil with WTI currently -1.22% at $49.30/bbl as we type and the lowest level this month. That comes following a -1.11% decline yesterday with the finger of blame being pointed at Russia after the nation’s envoy at OPEC said that production cuts aren’t ‘an option for us’. That mirrors similar comments we heard from Iraq earlier this week. The latest American Petroleum Institute inventory numbers haven’t helped either, with the data showing that crude inventories rose 4.8m barrels last week. The official EIA inventory numbers are due today.

Elsewhere, the big mover in FX markets is the Aussie Dollar which is up over half a percent after headline CPI (+0.7% qoq vs. +0.5% expected) rose more than expected in Q3. That has seemed to offset the concern about lingering soft core inflation with the average of the RBA measures coming in at just +0.3% qoq for the quarter. There has also been some data in China where the Westpac consumer sentiment reading for this month has increased 1.9pts to 117.1 and the highest since April.

Moving on. As has so often been the case in the last couple of months, Sterling was one of the other main stories in markets yesterday. At one stage in the early afternoon the Pound tumbled to an intraday low of $1.2083, or some -1.27% lower. However as BoE Governor Carney spoke the Pound recovered. His comments weren’t particularly groundbreaking but it was enough of a calming influence for the market. Speaking in front of the House of Lords, Carney said that there were limits to officials’ willingness to look beyond an overshoot of their inflation target and that officials’ were not ‘indifferent to the exchange rate’. The Pound recovered a decent amount of that fall to close ‘just’ -0.41% lower at $1.2188. It’s holding that level this morning as we type. Weakness in Sterling did however help the FTSE 100 (+0.45%) to outperform yesterday.

Staying with the macro, yesterday’s data in the US was a bit of a mixed bag but it was the underwhelming consumer confidence reading which caught the eye and ultimately contributed to that damper mood for risk. The headline 98.6 print for this month was down from 103.5 in September (which was revised down) and also lower than the market consensus of 101.5. The details showed that both the present conditions (120.6 from 127.9) and expectations (83.9 from 87.2) gauges fell, while the share of those who said jobs were plentiful also decreased to 24.3% from 27.6%.

Elsewhere, there was better news in the latest IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading which was up 4.6pts and more than expected to 51.3 (vs. 47.5 expected) this month. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index reading was up 4pts and in line with the market at -4. Finally the latest housing market data showed that house prices in the 20 largest US cities were up +0.24% mom and a bit more than expected in August according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. That puts the YoY rate at +5.13% from +4.98%. Meanwhile in Europe the highlight was the Germany IFO survey which revealed a 1pt increase in the headline business climate reading to 110.5 (vs. 109.6 expected). Sovereign bond markets were quiet again yesterday. 10y Bund yields edged up just shy of 1bp to 0.028% while 10y Treasury yields (+3bps to 1.766%) continue to remain stuck in this 1.70-1.80% range that they’ve been in for the best part of 3 weeks now.

Speaking of rates, ECB President Draghi had a few things to say on the subject yesterday. He argued that ‘the type of actions we need, if we want interest rates at higher levels, are those that can raise the natural rate’ and that ‘this requires a focus on policies that can address the root causes of excess saving over investment – in other words, fiscal and structural policies’.

Looking now at the day ahead. This morning in Europe we’re kicking off in Germany where the September import price index reading will be released, along with the latest consumer confidence print. France will also release its latest consumer confidence print a short time after. This afternoon in the US the highlight will likely be the remaining October flash PMI’s (both services and composite prints due). Also important is the advance goods trade balance reading for September where a slight widening in the deficit is expected. This might be one of the few remaining releases which could influence forecasts for Friday’s GDP print. Also due out is the wholesale inventories reading for last month, and new home sales data. Away from the data the only notable speaker on the cards today is the ECB’s Praet this evening. Expect earnings to also continue to be front and centre with 43 S&P 500 companies due to report. The highlights include Coca-Cola and Boeing prior to the open. In Europe results from GSK and Bayer are also due.

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