Trump Takes The Lead In Latest Bloomberg Poll As All Eyes Turn To Tonight’s Debate

Tonight's debate is anticipated to draw an audience of up to 100mm as viewers are "expecting the unexpected".  Anticipation for some sort of controversy at tonight's debate grew over the weekend after chatter arose on twitter that Bill's former mistress, Gennifer Flowers, may attend the debate as Trump's guest.  Viewers will also be focused on whether or not the debate moderator, Lester Holt, steps in to "fact check" Trump, a controversial policy that landed CNN's host, Candy Crowley, in hot water back in 2012 after she "fact checked" Mitt Romney even though her "facts" turned out to be inaccurate.

Meanwhile, the New York Times endorsed Hillary for President (shocking, we know) by offering up a scathing review of Trump called "Why Donald Trump Should Not Be President" which, among other things, describes Trump as a "man who dwells in bigotry, bluster and false promises."  Of course, the NYT attack piece on Trump called on all the typical democrat narratives against republicans noting that Trump's "campaign marked by bursts of false and outrageous allegations, personal insults, xenophobic nationalism, unapologetic sexism and positions that shift according to his audience and his whims."  Of course, the Times also chose to hammer Trump on his "brazen refusal to disclose his tax returns" and his "questionable" ties to Russia.  So, basically the same old stuff.

We guess the NYT has chosen to simply ignore the myriad of scandals, sorry plumes of smoke, surrounding their chosen candidate. 

In any event, here is where things stand in the latest polls at we head into tonight's debate.

The latest Bloomberg poll, out today, reveals a 2-point lead for Trump in a 4-way race.

Bloomberg Poll

 

Meanwhile, the Real Clear Politics average poll has Clinton up 2.3 points after a Trump surge, post Hillary's 9/11 "medical episode", brought them close to even.

RCP

 

Of course, we all know that the national polling data is fairly irrelevant with the election ultimately coming down to a couple of key swing states.  In Florida, Real Clear Politics has the race a dead heat.

RCP - Florida

 

Meanwhile, Trump has opened up a 1.8 point lead in Ohio.

RCP - Ohio

 

And Colorado is also up for grabs as Hillary is a holding on to a marginal 0.7 point lead.

RCP - Colorado

 

And we leave you with this interesting Bloomberg graphic that quickly sums up where each candidate stands based on demographics.

Bloomberg

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Will Deutsche Bank’s Collapse Be Worse Than Lehman Brothers?

Few analysts noted it, but the $USD actually staged its second strongest day of the year the Friday before last.

The only other day in which the $USD rallied more was on the day of BREXIT, a black swan event that featured EXTREME currency volatility.

This move tells us something BIG is afoot “behind the scenes” in the financial system

I believe that something is a banking crisis in the EU. The clear signal is coming from Deutsche Bank (DB).

DB is the proverbial “canary in the coalmine” for Europe. Perched atop the largest derivatives book in Europe, DB has ties to most major financial institutions in the region.

Which is why as soon as DB starts nose-diving, you know something big is up.

DB shares are down 16% since September 15th and nearly 20% from September 9th. Put another way, this bank has lost a FIFTH of its market cap in less than two weeks.

Bear in mind, Deutsche Bank is considerably larger than Lehman Brothers. It’s derivatives book is 20 times German GDP.

And the long-term chart is VERY disturbing.

We believe the global markets are on the verge of another Crisis.

2008 was Round 1. This next round, Round 2, will be even worse.

If you've yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.

We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

As we write this, there are less than 100 left.

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Will Deutsche Bank’s Collapse Be Worse Than Lehman Brothers?

Few analysts noted it, but the $USD actually staged its second strongest day of the year the Friday before last.

The only other day in which the $USD rallied more was on the day of BREXIT, a black swan event that featured EXTREME currency volatility.

This move tells us something BIG is afoot “behind the scenes” in the financial system

I believe that something is a banking crisis in the EU. The clear signal is coming from Deutsche Bank (DB).

DB is the proverbial “canary in the coalmine” for Europe. Perched atop the largest derivatives book in Europe, DB has ties to most major financial institutions in the region.

Which is why as soon as DB starts nose-diving, you know something big is up.

DB shares are down 16% since September 15th and nearly 20% from September 9th. Put another way, this bank has lost a FIFTH of its market cap in less than two weeks.

Bear in mind, Deutsche Bank is considerably larger than Lehman Brothers. It’s derivatives book is 20 times German GDP.

And the long-term chart is VERY disturbing.

We believe the global markets are on the verge of another Crisis.

2008 was Round 1. This next round, Round 2, will be even worse.

If you've yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.

We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

As we write this, there are less than 100 left.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://ift.tt/2cOFGxT

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://ift.tt/RQfggo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Elsewhere, the OPEC meeting in Algiers will also draw attention, though headlines on Friday suggesting a supply deal remained elusive dampened expectations. Looking at the longer-term picture, our commodity colleagues see hints that the oil price war is over.

  • Kicking things off this morning will be Germany where the September IFO survey is due to be released, while the UK will follow with the latest CBI reported sales data for this month. In the US the only data scheduled to be released are August new home sales and the September Dallas Fed manufacturing survey.
  • We start in Asia on Tuesday where Japan PPI and China industrial profits data are both scheduled to be released. The only data worth highlighting in Europe on Tuesday is the M3 money supply growth figure for the Euro area. In the US tomorrow we’ll firstly get the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index for July, followed by the remaining flash PMI’s (services and composite), consumer confidence in September and the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for this month.
  • Turning to Wednesday, during the Asia period we’ll get small business confidence in Japan and also the latest consumer sentiment reading in China. During the European session we’ll then get consumer confidence readings out of Germany, France and Italy. There’s important data in the US on Wednesday with the flash August durable and capital goods orders numbers.
  • We’ve got a reasonably busy calendar on Thursday to get through. In Japan we’ll get the August retail trade and sales data. During the European session we’ll get September CPI and unemployment data out of Germany, along with Euro area confidence indicators in September and also UK money and credit aggregates numbers for August. During the US session all eyes will be on the third revision to Q2 GDP (expected to be nudged up two-tenths to +1.3% qoq), while the August advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims and pending homing sales for August are also due.
  • We close the week in Japan with a bumper set of releases include the jobless rate, household spending, industrial production, housing starts and the August CPI print. China will also release the Caixin manufacturing PMI print. During the European session we’ll get CPI and PPI in France, the final Q2 GDP print for the UK and also CPI for the Euro area in September. In the US we end the week with the personal income and spending report for August, PCE core and deflator readings, Chicago PMI and finally the last revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

The complete breakdown of events is as follows:

If that wasn’t enough, DB’s Jim Reid points out that there’s plenty away from the data too.

  • ECB President Draghi is due to speak at EU parliament in Brussels today at 3pm BST while the Fed’s Tarullo and Kaplan are also due to speak. The first US Presidential election debate also takes place tonight while the OPEC meeting in Algeria is also obviously worth keeping an eye on given the informal sideline meeting of producers. The forum will run through to Wednesday. It’s also expected that Italy PM Renzi will set the date for the planned referendum on constitutional reform at some stage today.
  • Tomorrow the Fed Vice-Chair Fischer is due to speak.
  • On Wednesday there’s more Fedspeak with Bullard and Evans are also due to speak along with Fed Chair who is testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on the topic of bank supervision, although this is a platform not commonly associated with the Fed Chair expressing opinions on either the economic outlook or monetary policy.
  • On Thursday we hear from the Fed’s George and also the BoJ’s Kuroda during the Asia session – although we’re not sure if Kuroda will be speaking on monetary policy at all. The Fed’s Harker, Lockhart, Powell and Kashkari are also due to speak, as is Yellen again before a minority banking conference. With little in the way of key data since the FOMC it’s unlikely that this will be hugely market moving. The European Banking Summit also kicks off in Brussels on Thursday.
  • Finally on Friday during the Asia session we get the BoJ summary of opinions from last week’s meeting.

* * *

Looking at just the US, the key economic releases this week are new home sales on Monday, durable goods orders on Wednesday, and the PCE report on Friday. Hhere is the summary of key events alongside consensus expectations:

Goldman breaks down the key events expected in the US in the next week:

* * *

Monday, September 26

  • 09:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will deliver opening remarks at the Fourth Symposium on “Ending Too Big to Fail” in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Recently, President Kashkari said that he worries about hiking interest rates too quickly more than too slowly.
  • 11:45 AM Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo (FOMC voter) will give a speech titled, “Next Steps in the Evolution of Stress Testing” to the Yale School of Management Leaders Forum.
  • 10:00 AM New home sales, August (GS -8.0%, consensus -8.3%, last +12.4%): We expect new home sales to decline by 8.0% in August, following a strong 12.4% gain in July. New home sales are highly volatile on a month-to-month basis. Both single-family and multi-family housing starts weakened in August, and a decline in multi-family buildings permits offset modest increases in single-family units.
  • 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, September (consensus -3.0, last -6.2)
  • 01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) will take part in a moderated Q&A at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas Annual Convention in San Antonio, Texas. Media Q&A is expected. Last week, President Kaplan remarked that the Fed “can afford to be patient in raising rates.”

Tuesday, September 27

  • 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, July (GS -0.1%, consensus flat, last -0.1%): The Case-Shiller home price index appears to have been influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges recently. We expect a 0.1% decline in house prices in the July report based on the pattern seen last year. Over the past year, the 20-city index has increased by 5.1%.
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, September preliminary (consensus 51.2, last 51.0)
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, September (GS 99.0, consensus 98.8, last 101.1): We expect consumer confidence to edge down in September after the index rose to 101.1 from a revised 96.7 in August. The University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for September was unchanged, slightly below consensus expectations for a modest increase.
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, September (consensus -2, last -11)11:15 AM Fed Vice Chairman Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will discuss reasons to study economics at Howard University.

Wednesday, September 28

  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, August (GS +0.2%, consensus -1.4%, last +4.4%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, August (GS -0.7%, consensus -0.5%, last +1.3%); Core capital goods orders, August (GS -1.6%, consensus -0.1%, last +1.5%); Core capital goods shipments, August (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last -0.5%): We expect durable goods orders to rise 0.2% and core capital goods orders to decline -1.6% in August, following a stronger-than-expected report in July. August industrial production data came in a bit below consensus expectations, and regional manufacturing surveys were mostly weaker. We also expect core capital goods shipments to be flat. Over the last year, core capital goods orders declined by 4.9%, while core capital goods shipments declined by 7.1%.
  • 08:45 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Institutional Investor Conference in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
  • 10:00 AM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on supervision and regulation. At the September FOMC post-meeting press conference, Chair Yellen remarked that most of the FOMC participants judged that while the case for a rate hike had grown stronger, “the economy has a little more room to run than might have been previously thought.”
  • 10:10 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will make introductory remarks on community banking at a research conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors titled, “Community Banking in the 21st Century.”
  • 01:30 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will deliver the afternoon keynote address on community banking at a conference on “Community Banking in the 21st Century” in St. Louis. President Evans recently remarked that U.S. monetary policy appears to be less expansionary now and the Fed could “normalize policy much faster than currently envisioned and still keep the pace gradual.”
  • 04:35 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester will give a speech on the economic outlook and policy at the Greater Cleveland Partnership Third Quarter Middle-Market Forum. At the September FOMC meeting, President Mester was one of the three dissenters who preferred to increase the federal funds rate target range.
  • 07:15 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George will give a speech at a conference titled, “Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers.” At the September FOMC meeting, President George was one of the three dissenters who preferred to raise the federal funds rate target.

Thursday, September 29

  • 05:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Global Interdependence Center’s Central Banking Series in Dublin, Ireland.
  • 08:30 AM Advanced goods trade balance, August (GS -$61.1bn, consensus -$62.3bn, last -$58.8bn): U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Last month, the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators report showed a smaller-than-anticipated trade deficit, offset by soft wholesale and retail inventory accumulation. We expect the goods trade deficit to widen moderately in August.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 24 (GS 260k, consensus 260k, last 252k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 17 (last 2,113k): We expect initial jobless claims to move up to 260k after claims declined to 252k last week. The decline in claims primarily reflected a sharp drop in California.
  • 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q2 (consensus +1.3%, last +1.1%); Personal consumption, Q2 (consensus +1.8%, last +1.8%): Consensus expects Q2 GDP to be revised up to 1.3% from 1.1% in the third revision. Personal consumption is expected to remain unchanged.
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, August (consensus flat, last +0.1%): Consensus expects wholesale inventories to be flat in August.
  • 08:50 AM Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart will give a keynote presentation at the Future of Florida Forum in Orlando, Florida. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, August (consensus flat, last +1.3%): Consensus expects pending home sales to be flat in August. Last month, pending home sales rose 1.3% while prior months were revised downward. We have found pending home sales—based on contract signings rather than closings—to be a decent leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag.
  • 10:00 AM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will present on “Trends in Community Bank Performance over the Past 20 Years” at a conference on community banking in St. Louis.
  • 02:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will speak at a town hall in Rapid City, South Dakota. No media Q&A is expected.
  • 04:00 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will address a conference on Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers” hosted by the Kansas City Fed via video link.

Friday, September 30

  • 8:30 AM Personal income, August (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%): Personal spending, August (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); PCE price index, August (GS +0.14%, consensus +0.20%, last flat); Core PCE price index, August (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.20, last +0.10%); PCE price index (yoy), August (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.8%); Core PCE price index (yoy), August (GS +1.6%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.6%): We expect personal income to rise by 0.3% and personal spending to rise by 0.1% in the August report. We also expect core PCE prices to increase by 0.17% after core CPI rose by 0.25%, above consensus expectations. The core PCE price index likely rose by 1.6% over the past year.
  • 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, September (GS 52.0, consensus 52.3, last 51.5): We expect the Chicago PMI to edge up to 52.0 from 51.5, still above the breakeven level.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final), September (GS 90.0, consensus 90.0, last 89.8): The Michigan consumer sentiment gauge remained unchanged at 89.8 in the September preliminary estimate, and we expect the index to edge up to 90.0 in the final estimate. Overall, consumer sentiment has been range-bound since early 2015.

Source: BofA, DB, GS

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US Slams Russian “Barbarism” In Syria; Moscow Responds Peace “Almost Impossible Now”

Just three weeks after yet another “landmark” Syria peace deal was signed, the agreement is not only in tatters but the war drums are beating louder than ever before after the US slammed Russia’s action in Syria as “barbarism,” not counter-terrorism, while Moscow’s U.N. envoy said ending the war “is almost an impossible task now” as Syrian government forces, backed by Moscow, bombed the city of Aleppo.

As Reuters reported overnight, the UN Security Council met on Sunday at the request of the United States, Britain and France to discuss the escalation of fighting in Aleppo following the announcement on Thursday of an offensive by the Syrian army to retake the city. “What Russia is sponsoring and doing is not counter-terrorism, it is barbarism,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, told the 15-member council.

“Instead of pursuing peace, Russia and Assad make war. Instead of helping get life-saving aid to civilians, Russia and Assad are bombing the humanitarian convoys, hospitals and first responders who are trying desperately to keep people alive,” Power said.

As reported previously, the September 9 ceasefire deal between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov aimed at putting Syria’s peace process back on track effectively collapsed in what may be a record short period of time last Monday when an aid convoy was bombed. Russsia and the US have both accused each other of being the party responsible behind the bombinb.

“In Syria hundreds of armed groups are being armed, the territory of the country is being bombed indiscriminately and bringing a peace is almost an impossible task now because of this,” Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin told the council. Britain’s U.N. ambassador, Matthew Rycroft, said on Sunday the U.S. and Russian bid to bring peace to Syria “is very, very near the end of its life and yes the Security Council needs to be ready to fulfill our responsibilities.”

“The regime and Russia have instead plunged to new depths and unleashed a new hell on Aleppo,” Rycroft told the council. “Russia is partnering with the Syrian regime to carry out war crimes.”

However, any attempts to “rein in” Russia are doomed to fail as the country is one of five veto-powers on the council, along with the United States, France, Britain and China. Russia and China have protected Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government by blocking several attempts at council action.

Unfazed by the logistical impossibility of the UN to actually do anything, Power said that “It is time to say who is carrying out those air strikes and who is killing civilians. Russia holds a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council. This is a privilege and it is a responsibility. Yet in Syria and in Aleppo, Russia is abusing this historic privilege.”

As Syria’s U.N. Ambassador Bashar Ja’afari began addressing the council, Power, Rycroft and French U.N. Ambassador Francois Delattre walked out of the chamber, diplomats said. “Any political solution can only be successful by providing the requisite conditions through intensified efforts to fight terrorism,” Ja’afari told the council. “The real war on terrorism has never started yet. The advent of Syrian victory is imminent.”

* * *

Earlier today, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said the US and its Western partners are trying to steer the world’s attention away from their airstrikes on the Syrian Army by accusing Russia of attacking a UN humanitarian convoy outside the Aleppo. “I would like to emphasize that the Americans and their Western allies, for one thing, want to distract public attention from what had happened in Deir-az-Zor,” Lavrov told NTV on Monday following the urgent meeting of the UN Security Council.

“When the humanitarian convoy was hit [outside Aleppo], we demanded that an investigation be conducted. [US Secretary of State] John Kerry, a good partner of mine, behaved the way he never has done previously. He claimed that the investigation might take place, but they know who did it, namely the Syrian Army or Russia, and that it was Russia’s fault in any case,” he said quoted by RT.

Kerry appeared to be “pinned down by stark criticism from the American military apparatus,” Lavrov noted, which may indicate that the US military does not comply with its commander-in-chief’s orders.

“[President] Barack Obama always supported, as I was told, cooperation with Russia, and he confirmed it himself during the meeting with [President] Vladimir Putin in China. It seems to me that the military may not be obeying their supreme commander too much.”

Lavrov went on by saying that Washington is trying to continue finger-pointing at Russia and hold it accountable for what is happening in Syria. Such approach is counterproductive and leaves Moscow wary of the US-led coalition’s actions, the FM said, adding that there is no room for “100 percent trust.”

In turn, Moscow will push for a detailed investigation into the attack on the humanitarian convoy, the minister said. The US and the West are not coping with their obligations on combating the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), Lavrov said. “It is clear that the West, led by the US which runs the anti-IS coalition and, as they put it, Al-Nusra Front in Syria, do not cope with their obligation.”

* * *

Meanwhile, as the peace process has completely fallen apart, the bombing campaign of Aleppo has resumed. According to the WSJ, Syria and its Russian allies pressed an assault on Aleppo amid what the United Nations called the most intense bombing in years of warfare there, and residents said hundreds of civilians have been killed since a cease-fire fell apart last week. The surge in deaths came as a spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon over the weekend cited reports of “bunker buster bombs.” The bombs have left large craters in the rebel-held part of the divided city, Aleppo residents said, and caused shock waves felt blocks away from the point of impact.


A man walks on the rubble of damaged buildings after an airstrike on the

rebel  held al-Qaterji neighbourhood of Aleppo, Syria September 25, 2016

Rebels and opposition leaders blamed Russia, Syria’s key ally, for the bunker-buster bombs. The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. “The first time one struck, everyone thought there was an earthquake,” said Muhammad al-Zein, who helps oversee hospitals in the rebel-held part of Aleppo. “But the next day another one hit and we realized it was not an earthquake.”

President Bashar al-Assad has vowed to retake all of Aleppo and the offensive was the latest indication that he aims to win the war militarily despite repeated efforts by the U.S. and Russia to reach a lasting cease-fire and a diplomatic solution. Syrian state media reported that the army on Saturday seized control of an area north of Aleppo city called Handarat Camp. Within hours, rebels said they had retaken the territory.

With the Syrian war once again front and center, and this time the possibility of a Chinese intervention – on the side of the Assad regime all too real – the recent warning by a Syrian politican that World War III has started in Syria suddenly does not appear too far fetched.

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“Bodies On The Ground” – At Least 7 Injured In Houston, Police Warn Of Active Shooter Situation – Live Feed

An active shooter situation is underway at a supermarket strip mall in southwest Houston. ABC reports at least 7 injured after a black male with a revolver was shooting at vehicles.

Emergency vehicles are in the area of a strip center bordered by Weslayan, Bissonnet and Law Street. Traffic has been shut down on Weslayan in an attempt to protect drivers in the area.

 

This all began around 6:30am at the Randalls supermarket strip center on Weslayan. An apartment complex is nearby on Law Street, where there is a lot of police activity.

 

Our Eyewitness News crew reports firefighters and officers are running up and down the street as gunfire continues.

 

SkyEye has seen bodies on the ground. Don Armstrong says he has heard a multitude of gunshots since we arrived at the scene.

Live Feed:

* * *

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26 Incredible Facts About The Economy That Every American Should Know Before The Trump-Clinton Debate

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Are you ready for the most anticipated presidential debate in decades?  It is being projected that Monday’s debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton could potentially break the all-time record of 80 million viewers that watched Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter debate back in 1980.  Many Americans probably hope to see some personal fireworks between the two nominees, but the two candidates have both expressed a desire to focus on substantive issues.  There will likely be quite a few questions about the economy, and without a doubt this is an area where Trump and Clinton have some very sharp differences The mainstream media would have us believe that the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape, and if that was true that would seem to favor Clinton.  But is it actually true?  The following are 26 incredible facts about the economy that every American should know for the Trump-Clinton debate…

#1 When Barack Obama entered the White House, the U.S. government was 10.6 trillion dollars in debt.  Today, the U.S. government is 19.5 trillion dollars in debt, and Obama still has several months to go until the end of his second term.  That means that an average of more than 1.1 trillion dollars will be added to the national debt during his presidency.  We are stealing a tremendous amount of consumption from the future to make the economy look much, much better than it otherwise would be, and we are systematically destroying the future in the process.

#2 As Obama prepares to leave office, the rate at which we are adding to the national debt is actually increasing.  During the fiscal year that is just ending, the U.S. government has added another 1.36 trillion dollars to the national debt.

#3 It isn’t just the federal government that is on a massive debt binge.  Total U.S. corporate debt has nearly doubled since the end of 2007.

#4 Default rates on U.S. corporate debt are the highest that they have been since the last financial crisis.

#5 Corporate profits have fallen for five quarters in a row, and it is being projected that it will be six in a row once the final numbers for the third quarter come in.

#6 During the month of August, commercial bankruptcy filings were up 29 percent compared to the same period a year ago.

#7 The rate of new business formation in the United States dropped dramatically during the last recession and has hovered at that new lower level ever since.

#8 The Wall Street Journal says that this is the weakest “economic recovery” since 1949.

#9 Barack Obama is on track to be the only president in all of U.S. history to never have a single year when the U.S. economy grew by at least 3 percent.

#10 In August, the Cass Freight Index dipped to the lowest level that we have seen for that month since 2010.  What this means is that the total amount of stuff being shipped around the country by air, by rail and by truck is really dropping, and this is a clear sign that real economic activity is slowing down in a major way.

#11 Capital expenditure growth has turned negative, and history has shown that this is almost always followed by a new recession.

#12 The percentage of Americans with a full-time job has been sitting at about 48 percent since 2010.  You have to go back to 1983 to find a time when full-time employment in this country was so low.

#13 The labor force participation rate peaked back in 1997 and has been steadily falling ever since.

#14 The “inactivity rate” for men in their prime working years is actually higher today than it was during the last recession.

#15 The United States has lost more than five million manufacturing jobs since the year 2000 even though our population has become much larger over that time frame.

#16 If you can believe it, the total number of government employees now outnumbers the total number of manufacturing employees in the United States by almost 10 million.

#17 One study found that median incomes have fallen in more than 80 percent of the major metropolitan areas in this country since the year 2000.

#18 According to the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year.

#19 The rate of homeownership in the U.S. has fallen every single year while Barack Obama has been in the White House.

#20 Approximately one out of every five young adults are currently living with their parents.

#21 The auto loan debt bubble recently surpassed the one trillion dollar mark for the first time ever.

#22 Auto loan delinquencies are at the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.

#23 In 1971, 61 percent of all Americans were considered to be “middle class”, but now middle class Americans have actually become a minority in this nation.

#24 One recent survey discovered that 62 percent of all Americans have less than $1,000 in savings.

#25 According to the Federal Reserve, 47 percent of all Americans could not even pay an unexpected $400 emergency room bill without borrowing the money from somewhere or selling something.

#26 The number of New Yorkers sleeping in homeless shelters just set a brand new record high, and the number of families permanently living in homeless shelters is up a whopping 60 percent over the past five years.

Despite all of the facts that you just read, the truth is that there is one particular group of people that have been doing quite well during the Obama years.  I really like how Charles Hugh Smith made this point in one of his recent articles

The top 5% of households that dominate government, Corporate America, finance, the Deep State and the media have been doing extraordinarily well during the past eight years of stock market bubble (oops, I mean boom) and “recovery,” and so they report that the economy is doing splendidly because they’ve done splendidly.

By recklessly creating money out of thin air and pumping it into the financial markets, the Federal Reserve has greatly enriched the elite, but they have also dramatically increased the gap between the very wealthy and the rest of us.  Since he has been in the White House during this time, Barack Obama has gotten the credit for this temporary stock market bubble, and most of the elite love Obama anyway.

But in the process the stage has been set for the greatest economic and financial implosion in U.S. history, and the pain that is coming is going to affect every man, woman and child in this country.

During the debate, Trump and Clinton will talk a lot about tinkering with tax rates and regulations, but those measures are essentially going to be meaningless when compared to the massive economic tsunami that is coming.  The next president is going to inherit the biggest economic problems that this nation has ever faced, and it is going to take a miracle of Biblical proportions to turn the U.S. economy in the right direction.

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A Crashing Deutsche Bank Scrambles To Assure Markets That It Is “Fine”

With Deutsche Bank stock plunging to fresh all time lows in early trading after Merkel reportedly ruled out state aid the embattled German lender, the bank found itself in the unenviable position of once again having to defend its balance sheet to avoid further stock price declines, especially as doubts mounted if the German government response was due to a pre-emptive request for aid.  DB quickly tried to squash such speculation when a bank spokesman said that  “CEO John Cryan at no point asked the German Chancellor for the government to intervene in the U.S. Justice Department’s mortgages case.”

He added that Deutsche Bank will solve its problems without relying on help from Berlin, Germany’s flagship lender said on Monday.

The market remains unconvinced: shares in Germany’s biggest bank hit a record low of 10.62 euros on Monday…

… with its default risk once again spiking.

Naturally, DB had no option but to project confidence: “Deutsche Bank is determined to resolve its challenges on its own,” the spokesman said. “There is currently no question of a capital increase. We are meeting all regulatory requirements,” the spokesman added. Cryan and Merkel met in July to discuss Brexit repercussions but did not touch on the matter of potential help with U.S. legal proceedings, a person close to the matter said according to Reuters.

That said, the sellside suspects that a new capital raise appears inevitable. Analysts at Mediobanca said that a rights issue looked inevitable.  “John Cryan always said that a rights issue would only be triggered by a larger-than expected litigation charge and it appears increasingly likely that Deutsche Bank investors will be asked to post bail for Deutsche’s past crimes,” they said in note on Monday.

Meanwhile, the defense continued after Jorg Eigendorf, head of communications at Deutsche Bank told CNBC, that Deutsche bank liquidity position is very comfortable, adding that the credit portfolio is very strong, while the “liquidity position very comfortable, third quarter almost over and I can tell you that we are fine and very comfortable here.”

Touching on the stock price, Eigendorf said that the “share price is low but that is not what is worrying us and that is not what we are looking at. What is really important to us is our credit story which is very strong, it is fundamentally strong.”

If only the market agreed.

But perhaps the most sober – and realistic – assessment came from Andreas Utermann, Allianz Global Investors’ chief investment officer, who said on BBG TV that Germany would ultimately help out a struggling Deutsche Bank: “I don’t buy at all what’s coming out of Germany in terms of Germany not wanting to step in ultimately if Deutsche Bank was really in trouble.”

“Deutsche Bank is “too important for the German economy.” The bank’s tussle with the U.S. Department of Justice over a potential $14 billion legal settlement is “a political issue which will get resolved at a lower price,” he said in an interview with Francine Lacqua and Tom Keene on Monday.

The only question is just how will Germany, which has been so staunchly against an Italian bailout of its own insolvent banks, will i) pass such a deal with popular sentiment strongly against more bank bailouts and ii) what will a bailout look like: with €162 billion in debt and only €17 billion in equity, the government check would be substantial. And that, of course, excludes the €42 trillion in gross notional exposure which few if any have been willing to discuss in recent weeks.

via http://ift.tt/2cxQXWc Tyler Durden

A Crashing Deutsche Bank Scrambles To Assure Markets That It Is “Fine”

With Deutsche Bank stock plunging to fresh all time lows in early trading after Merkel reportedly ruled out state aid the embattled German lender, the bank found itself in the unenviable position of once again having to defend its balance sheet to avoid further stock price declines, especially as doubts mounted if the German government response was due to a pre-emptive request for aid.  DB quickly tried to squash such speculation when a bank spokesman said that  “CEO John Cryan at no point asked the German Chancellor for the government to intervene in the U.S. Justice Department’s mortgages case.”

He added that Deutsche Bank will solve its problems without relying on help from Berlin, Germany’s flagship lender said on Monday.

The market remains unconvinced: shares in Germany’s biggest bank hit a record low of 10.62 euros on Monday…

… with its default risk once again spiking.

Naturally, DB had no option but to project confidence: “Deutsche Bank is determined to resolve its challenges on its own,” the spokesman said. “There is currently no question of a capital increase. We are meeting all regulatory requirements,” the spokesman added. Cryan and Merkel met in July to discuss Brexit repercussions but did not touch on the matter of potential help with U.S. legal proceedings, a person close to the matter said according to Reuters.

That said, the sellside suspects that a new capital raise appears inevitable. Analysts at Mediobanca said that a rights issue looked inevitable.  “John Cryan always said that a rights issue would only be triggered by a larger-than expected litigation charge and it appears increasingly likely that Deutsche Bank investors will be asked to post bail for Deutsche’s past crimes,” they said in note on Monday.

Meanwhile, the defense continued after Jorg Eigendorf, head of communications at Deutsche Bank told CNBC, that Deutsche bank liquidity position is very comfortable, adding that the credit portfolio is very strong, while the “liquidity position very comfortable, third quarter almost over and I can tell you that we are fine and very comfortable here.”

Touching on the stock price, Eigendorf said that the “share price is low but that is not what is worrying us and that is not what we are looking at. What is really important to us is our credit story which is very strong, it is fundamentally strong.”

If only the market agreed.

But perhaps the most sober – and realistic – assessment came from Andreas Utermann, Allianz Global Investors’ chief investment officer, who said on BBG TV that Germany would ultimately help out a struggling Deutsche Bank: “I don’t buy at all what’s coming out of Germany in terms of Germany not wanting to step in ultimately if Deutsche Bank was really in trouble.”

“Deutsche Bank is “too important for the German economy.” The bank’s tussle with the U.S. Department of Justice over a potential $14 billion legal settlement is “a political issue which will get resolved at a lower price,” he said in an interview with Francine Lacqua and Tom Keene on Monday.

The only question is just how will Germany, which has been so staunchly against an Italian bailout of its own insolvent banks, will i) pass such a deal with popular sentiment strongly against more bank bailouts and ii) what will a bailout look like: with €162 billion in debt and only €17 billion in equity, the government check would be substantial. And that, of course, excludes the €42 trillion in gross notional exposure which few if any have been willing to discuss in recent weeks.

via http://ift.tt/2cxQXWc Tyler Durden

Frontrunning: September 26

  • Stocks Drop on Bank, Commodity Company Woes; Turkish Lira Falls (BBG)
  • Clinton and Trump to square off in highly anticipated debate showdown (Reuters)
  • Profit Slump for S&P 500 Heads for a Sixth Straight Quarter  (WSJ)
  • Oil rises as OPEC meets, volatility hits post-Doha high (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank Slumps to Fresh Record Low on Capital Concerns (BBG)
  • Police Videos Fail to Quiet Protests in Charlotte (WSJ)
  • What Wall Street’s Watching Ahead of the First Presidential Debate (BBG)
  • Billionaire Donors Led by Soros, Simons Favor Clinton Over Trump (BBG)
  • Trump, Clinton Assure Netanyahu on Future of U.S.-Israel Ties (BBG)
  • Air strikes pound rebel-held Aleppo districts (Reuters)
  • Corbyn Victory Leaves Little Resolved for U.K. Labour Party (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia Injects $5.3 Billion Into Banks to Ease Cruncha (BBG)
  • Brutal Upheavals Mount as S&P 500 Bull Market Nears 8th Year (BBG)
  • US wants to distract attention from coalition strike on Syria troops – Lavrov (RT)
  • Hundreds Killed in Aleppo in Fresh Fighting (WSJ)
  • Self-Driving Hype Doesn’t Reflect Reality (WSJ)
  • Iran’s supreme leader tells Ahmadinejad not to run again for president (Reuters)
  • Moody’s cuts Turkey’s credit rating to ‘junk’ after coup (Reuters)
  • Russia, Syria accused of ‘war crimes’ in Aleppo bombardment (France24)
  • Tudor Said to Close Singapore Trading Desk Amid Global Cuts (BBG)
  • FBI report expected to show violent crime rise in some U.S. cities (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– The Canadian auto workers’ union won approval for a new four-year contract with General Motors Co, clearing the way for $544 million in investments by GM. http://on.wsj.com/2cvr9Ft

– Hyundai Motor Co plants in South Korea faced the first complete strike by unionized workers in more than a decade on Monday, putting the automaker’s sales targets at risk. http://on.wsj.com/2cvtpwi

– Singapore’s BandLab Technologies Ltd has purchased a 49 percent stake in Rolling Stone, including the magazine and its digital assets. The investment does not include ownership in Rolling Stone’s corporate parent, Wenner Media LLC. http://on.wsj.com/2cvtAYq

– Golf legend Arnold Palmer died on Sunday at the age of 87. http://on.wsj.com/2cvt9gU

– Two women suspected of planning an attack in France were detained by police in the southern French city of Nice. http://on.wsj.com/2cvtoZ6

 

FT

The United States on Sunday called Russia’s action in Syria “barbarism,” not counter-terrorism, while Moscow’s U.N. envoy said ending the war “is almost an impossible task now” as Syrian government forces, backed by Moscow, bombed the city of Aleppo.

HSBC Holdings Plc has hired Russell Reynolds, a leading City of London recruitment firm, to check for gaps in its roster of up-and-coming executives and to search for candidates to fill them.

French state-owned bank Caisse des Depots (CDC) is planning to sell shares worth hundreds of millions of euros in some of the country’s largest companies, its Chief Executive Pierre-Rene Lemas said in an interview.

Leading bankers who have held talks with government ministers have told the Financial Times they believe Prime Minister Theresa May will end up taking Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union as political momentum behind a so-called “hard Brexit” grows.

 

NYT

– Rolling Stone, a magazine that for decades helped shaped music and popular culture but now finds itself facing significant legal and economic challenges, has brought in an outside investor for the first time in its nearly 50-year history. http://nyti.ms/2cOMwT8

– Arnold Palmer, 87, the champion golfer whose full-bore style of play, thrilling tournament victories and magnetic personality inspired an American golf boom, attracted a following known as Arnie’s Army and made him one of the most popular athletes in the world, died on Sunday, according to a spokesman for his business enterprises. http://nyti.ms/2dl2vNH

– A majority of British chief executives are considering moving their headquarters or some of their operations outside Britain as a result of the country’s decision to leave the European Union, according to a new survey by the accounting firm KPMG. http://nyti.ms/2da7yx3

– The veteran television personality Jane Pauley will replace Charles Osgood as the anchor of the highly rated CBS Corp show “Sunday Morning”. Osgood, who is retiring, announced the news on his last show on Sunday. http://nyti.ms/2dv6oyH

 

Britain

The Times

– Delancey, a company chaired by John Ritblat is suing China’s largest property developer Greenland Group’s UK division over claims that it has reneged on an agreement made as part of a high profile deal in London. http://bit.ly/2cwWZqe

– The European Commission is expected to respond to competition concerns by launching an inquiry this week into the 22 billion pounds ($28.54 billion) merger between the London Stock Exchange Group Plc and Deutsche Boerse AG . http://bit.ly/2cwWMmG

The Guardian

– BHS is poised to make a comeback as an online retailer just one month after the brand closed its last remaining high-street store. The business will be relaunched on Thursday, selling lighting and home furnishing products before adding clothing lines and kitchen and dining ranges over the coming weeks. http://bit.ly/2cwwYr7

– Britain’s biggest independent co-op has made the highest single payout to a worker for breaching low pay laws, 14,000 pounds, and is examining whether 200 others may have been paid below the minimum wage, the Guardian can reveal. http://bit.ly/2cwVQi5

The Telegraph

– Exetel, an Australian “challenger” broadband firm, has vowed to shake up Britain’s telecoms market when it launches in the UK this week with cheap fibre internet and data services aimed at small businesses. http://bit.ly/2cwX9hn

– UK’s decision to leave the EU will not dent growth at all this year, according to economic forecasts compiled by the Treasury, in a complete reversal of the gloomy short term forecasts made after the EU referendum. http://bit.ly/2cwXAbs

Sky News

– Zak Brown, chief executive of CSM Sport & Entertainment, is quitting the role at the end of the year amid suggestions that he could play a key role in the running of Formula One motor racing after it completes a 6.4 billion pounds takeover. http://bit.ly/2cwBqpJ

– Sebastian Grigg, a vice-chairman of Credit Suisse Group AG’s investment bank and one of its most senior European employees, resigned late last week to strike out on his own, Sky News understands. http://bit.ly/2cwuyZq

The Independent

– Jeremy Corbyn is preparing to tighten his stranglehold over Labour by appointing his own shadow cabinet and cementing his control over the party’s ruling executive. http://ind.pn/2cwZPv2

 

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