Why Some Pharmaceuticals Are So Expensive

Authored by Gilbert Berdine via The Mises Institute,

Enter “outrageous drug prices” into Google and you will receive plenty of examples. As reported here, Marathon Pharmaceuticals planned to charge $89,000 per year for its Emflaza brand of the corticosteroid deflazacort. Deflazacort was introduced in 1969 and is available outside the U.S. for less than $2 per tablet. US patients with muscular dystrophy have been obtaining the drug for around $1,500 per year from foreign sources.

This pricing behavior cannot occur in a free market. In a free or unhampered market, if Marathon tried to charge $89,000 for a year’s supply of deflazacort, they would realize zero sales. There are at least 169 generic manufacturers of at least 300 brands of deflazacort. One or more competitors of Marathon would gladly supply the drug for a lower price. In a situation with robust competition, the price will move toward the minimal cost of production plus transport over time. Marathon can make its pricing decision, and expect to realize sales, because a government agency gave Marathon monopoly privilege to sell deflazacort in the United States.  

The debate over whether drug patents are beneficial to society is outside the scope of this discussion. Proponents of monopoly privilege for pharmaceuticals must admit, however, that the monopoly privilege enables the outrageous prices. In the case of Emflaza, Marathon did not develop a new drug. Deflazacort has been in use since 1969. The FDA awarded monopoly privilege to Marathon Pharmaceuticals for acquiring old clinical trial data and performing some additional analyses.

Monopoly privilege enables pricing that extracts the last bit of disposable income from customers, but monopoly cannot, by itself, extract more from a customer than the customer can pay. The final policy element necessary for the outrageous price of $89,000 for a one year supply of Emflaza is public financing. By public financing I mean that the cost of the drug is not paid by the person receiving the benefit of the drug but by the public. Medicare and Medicaid are examples of public financing. Without public financing very few people could afford $89,000 per year, so Marathon Pharmaceuticals would charge less in order to maximize profit. With public financing, pharmaceutical companies stop making pricing decisions based on the economics of affordability and pursue rent seeking behaviors such as obtaining favorable pricing decisions by CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services).

To an economist, rents are incomes derived from political privilege rather than earned by voluntary trade. Rent seekers try to acquire political privilege rather than compete by innovation. Pharmaceutical companies are rent seekers when they apply for monopoly privilege to sell a drug, lobby government agencies to cover that drug under public financing, and then expand indications for treatment to maximize sales. Angus Deaton, Nobel Laureate in Economics, criticized rent seeking by the pharmaceutical companies. In an interview with The Atlantic, Deaton said, “My guess is that the FDA is acting pretty much in the interests of the pharmaceutical companies,” rather than serving the public interest.

Public financing of medications enables an extraction of wealth from the poor and middle class and transfers it to wealthy pharmaceutical corporations. Rather than making profits by offering valuable drugs at prices for which people will voluntarily pay, pharmaceutical companies extract unearned rents via government privilege. Unlike capitalism which generates wealth and makes everyone better off, rent seeking slows economic growth.  

This process of rent seeking is not confined to pricey drugs treating rare disorders; drug prices are set based on political choices across the spectrum.

berdine.PNG

Figure 1 Legend: Medicare Part D Total Drug Benefit. Part D benefit in billion U.S. dollars, nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), average hourly wage, and consumer price index (CPI) have been normalized to year 2006 and scaled to Part D Benefit in 2006 to clearly illustrate comparative growth rates in these variables.

From modest beginnings in 2004, the drug benefit of Medicare Part D has grown to $89.5 billion in 2015 or $2,141 per beneficiary per year. This benefit is money extracted from current and future taxpayers and paid to pharmaceutical companies. Note the rapid growth in spending from 2004 to 2006 when full outpatient drug coverage became available. Subsequent growth in spending reflects changes as new drugs become available and older drugs face competition from generics. An AARP analysis of the price of drugs widely used by senior citizens from 2005 to 2013 demonstrated that for each quarter since December 2005, a basket of 280 generic drugs was less expensive while a basket of 227 brand name drugs increased in price faster than growth in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Figure 1 illustrates that growth in Medicare Part D (even since 2006) is faster than either GDP or average hourly wages, so current trends cannot possibly be sustained. Growth is faster than the increase in CPI. Note the more rapid growth in Part D benefits since 2013. Total benefit grew from $69.3 billion in 2013 to $89.5 billion in 2015, more than 29% in two years. The Medicare trustees attributed this rapid growth to coverage for very expensive hepatitis C medications. AARP found a similar increase in the growth of brand name and specialty drug prices since 2013.

Before we can make health care affordable, we must confront why a previously affordable commodity has become unaffordable. On February 9, 2017, the FDA awarded monopoly privilege for US sales of deflazacort to Marathon Pharmaceuticals. Within a few days, Marathon Pharmaceuticals raised the price of deflazacort from $1,500 to $89,000 per year. This price increase was not an example of failure by free-market capitalism. Rather this price increase was an example of how anticompetitive government regulations break functioning markets in favor of rent seeking corporations.

via http://ift.tt/2fFSuvF Tyler Durden

Israeli Suicide-Drone Maker Accused Of Live Demo Targeting Armenian Troops

An Israeli defense contractor is facing allegations that it live tested a high tech suicide drone against Armenian troops in an active battle zone. Over the weekend multiple Israeli newspapers reported that a formal complaint filed with the Israeli Defense Export Controls Agency alleges that Aeronautics Defense Systems was asked by Azerbaijan to provide a live demonstration of the Orbiter 1k armed unmanned aircraft along the disputed border area of Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijan and Armenia have intermittently clashed since 1991.

According to reports, Aeronautics Defense Systems representatives were in Azerbaijan – a country which has recently purchased close to $5 billion worth of military hardware from Israel – in order to close a contract for the firm's latest advanced drone. The Orbiter 1k drone is capable of delivering 1-2 kilograms worth of explosives contained in its fuselage if flown directly into a target as the latest in a series of "suicide drones" produced and marketed by the Israeli firm. Azerbaijan government officials reportedly requested that the Israeli drone operators provide a live demo by deploying an armed Orbiter 1k against a military position of the Armenian army. When the drone operators refused, company management took over and deployed the aircraft. The Israeli daily Haaretz presents an account of the incident as follows:

The two Israeli operators of the craft refused to hit the Armenian position, and after remaining firm in their refusal even after threats directed against them, senior representatives of the company armed and operated the unmanned aircraft themselves. Ultimately the drones are said to have missed their targets, and no damage was caused, but according to the complaint, one of them struck at a distance of about 100 meters (330 feet) from the position.


Orbiter 1k drone sketch as shown on Aeronautics Defense Systems' website. Screen capture from aeronautics-sys.com

Aeronautics Defense Systems released a statement on Sunday which said the company "never carries out demonstrations [of the operations of the drone] on live targets, and that was true in this case as well" while the Defense Ministry refused to comment. The firm has deep ties with the Israeli military and boasts of clients in 50 countries worldwide. The former head of the Israel Air Force, Major General (ret.) Eitan Ben Eliyahu, is currently the company's board chairman. Part of the company's media statement seemed to confirm that one of its drones was used in combat while Aeronautics Defense Systems staff were in Azerbaijan. The statement admitted that:

The operational action was carried out by the purchaser alone and on its responsibility.

Last year Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the small Central Asian republic and acknowledged the years long close military cooperation between the two countries. Azerbaijan purchased Israel's 'Iron Dome' radar and missile defense system for an unspecified amount in late 2016.

So called "Kamikaze" drones are a new and scary technology in warfare. Multiple Israeli companies are developing and exporting the systems. 

The current scandal involving Aeronautics Defense Systems follows an April 2016 sighting of a similar Israeli-made drone over the disputed Armenia-Azerbaijan border region. In that incident a suicide drone called a 'Harop', made by another Israel based company, Israel Aerospace Industries, rammed an Armenian military bus, killing seven. The Washington Post reported at the time:

In this instance, the Harop apparently targeted a bus full of “Armenian volunteers,” killing seven, Artsrun Hovhannisyan, a spokesman for Armenia’s Defense Ministry, said in an interview with Ria Novosti, a Russian state-run media agency. Hovhannisyan also posted about the Harop on his Facebook page, according to local media reports, indicating that it was piloted by Azerbaijani forces.

The Washington Post report featured video of the 2016 drone attack posted by pro-Azeri groups – possibly the first time a suicide drone was deployed in combat – but the video has since been taken down, though still preserved on social media.

Armenia has over the past year publicized multiple images of downed drones of Israeli origin its military forces have recovered in the disputed Karabakh region while lodging complaints. Though Azerbaijan is a tiny Caucuses country with a relatively secular Muslim population, it is Israel's largest oil supplier. According to a statement on the website of the Azerbaijan Embassy in the U.S., Israel buys 40% of its oil from Azerbaijan. The conflict monitoring publication, War is Boring, described the geopolitical significance of the Israel-Azerbaijan relationship as follows:

Israel is another player, which sells drones and air-defense systems to Azerbaijan in exchange for Caspian oil and safe access for Israeli intelligence agents. And like Israel, the Azerbaijani government is wary of Iran. Then there’s the fact that Israel has positioned itself as a source for advanced drones on par with the best Western versions — but more affordable for poorer countries.

The latest revelation involving Aeronautics Defense Systems testing its most advanced drone in the skies of a remote Caucuses border conflict could put the Israel-Azerbaijan "oil for weapons" relationship in the international spotlight. No doubt, part of the reason why the advanced and still somewhat experimental suicide attack drones are showing up along the Azerbaijan border is because the remote area and obscure border conflict almost never receives international media attention or comment in Western press. Perhaps nothing short of news of state actors live testing suicide attack robots on human subjects will change that, though we won't wait around with bated breath.

via http://ift.tt/2uVudE4 Tyler Durden

Jim Kunstler Rages Against Everything: “One Really Has To Wonder How Long This Nonsense Goes On”

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

Cue the corn pone Nazis. Enter, stage left. Well, what did you expect?

With the various authorities in this culture incessantly applying “white privilege” noogies to the public’s skull, sooner or later they were sure to provoke a lizard-brain response from the more limbic-oriented low orders of honkeydom. Of course, you couldn’t stage-manage a more stupidly arrant provocative act in the State of Virginia, guaranteed to bring out the raging yahoos, than threatening to remove a statue of Robert E. Lee.

There’s a depressingly tragic overtone to this whole affair that suggests the arc of history itself is driving this story – a dark animus in the national soul struggling to resolve its contradictions. And the Charlottesville incident, which left a woman dead and many others badly injured from a car-ramming, has the flavor of a “first shot” in a new civil war.

The echo civil rights campaign of the moment — a strange brew of Black Lives Matter, “Antifa” (anti-fascist), latest-wave feminism, illegal immigrant sanctuary politics, and LGBTQQ agitation — emanates from the college campuses and creeps through the culture-at-large like a miasma, poisoning group against group, in an orgy of victimization claims of the sort that inevitably lead to violence.

This is how tribal and religious wars start in primitive societies.

There is also a funk of phoniness about this campaign that should alert the higher centers of judgment in the brain. The Michael Brown killing in Ferguson, MO, that kicked off the BLM movement was never a convincing case of injustice, but has been widely regarded as if it was, despite state and federal inquiries (under Obama’s DOJ), that concluded otherwise. The figment of “white privilege” is not responsible for the extraordinary black-on-black homicide rates in Chicago and Baltimore or the black teen flash mobs in malls around the country. What is suspiciously at the bottom of it all is the spectacular failure of the original civil rights campaign of the 1960s to alter the structures of poverty in black America, as well as the grinding guilt among white Democratic Progressives over the failures of their own well-intentioned policies — converted perversely into racial self-flagellation.

The latest iteration of feminism comes out of campuses that have been largely taken over by female Boomer pedagogues, especially the non-STEM departments, and is now fait accompli, so that the grievances still pouring out seem manufactured and hysterical. It also has a strong odor of simple misandry, and the whole package of ideology is wrapped in impenetrable grad school jargon designed to give it an intellectual sheen that is unearned and dishonest. The grim fact is that sooner or later even some intelligent men might notice this, and get pissed off about it.

The “Antifa” movement would be funny if it wasn’t itself prone to violence, since it espouses exactly the same kind of despotism against free thought that it pretends to fight against. It wants to shut down and stamp out debate in the public arena and trample over principles that make it uncomfortable, for instance, the First Amendment asserting the right to free speech. It makes a mockery of the battle cry for “diversity” (diversity only for Antifa-approved ideas). That so many current college students subscribe to the movement ought to make thoughtful people very uneasy about the politics of the coming generation. In their black battle garb and masks, they resemble the very fascist mobs of the 1930s that the name “Antifa” supposedly evokes as its enemy.

The illegal immigrant sanctuary movement is just plain insane, starting with the refusal by officials to even make a distinction between citizens and non-citizens. There is every reason to think that mayors of “sanctuary cities” and administrators on “sanctuary campuses” should be prosecuted under federal law. It has reached such a pitch in California, where state college deans are shepherding “undocumented” students into special programs, that they are sure to provoke the cutoff of funds and perhaps the destruction of their own institutions. The movement is the very essence of lawlessness and a disgrace to the supposedly thinking class.

The LGBTQQ movement, an offshoot of Feminism 3.0, seeks to erase biology itself as applied to human mammalian sexuality, at the same time that it wants to create new special social and political entitlements — based on various categories of sexual desire that they insist are biologically-driven, such as the urge of a man to equip himself via surgery to behave like a woman. The movement has now gone so far as to try to shame people who place themselves in the original biological categories (“cis-gender,” another grad school metaphysical jargon clot), and especially heterosexual men. Everybody else gets brownie points for being “cutting edge.” One really has to wonder how long this nonsense goes on before it provokes a reaction among the biology-literate.

If we’re entering a new civil war, don’t make the mistake of thinking that it is the product solely of extreme right-wing yahooism. These Nazi and KKK bozos are rising up because the thinking-enabled people of the center have been too cowardly to stand up against the rising tide of idiocy festering at both ends of the spectrum, and particularly on the Left with its direct wiring to the policy-making centers of American life, dictating how people must think and act, and what they should care about.

What we can’t really tell yet is whether these battles will remain joined and even escalate after the financial clusterfuck that the nation is sleepwalking into, or if the financial crisis will overwhelm them like a tsunami and leave all the stupid, tattered battle flags washed up on a lonely beach.

via http://ift.tt/2fF9Ngw Tyler Durden

JPMorgan Lists Four “Red Flags” Why It Is Starting To Sell Stocks

While most banks have in recent weeks expressed concerns about the recent, near record high levels in the S&P – which is now 67 points above Goldman’s year end price target of 2,400 – few have been willing to go out on a limb and announce they are short the market, and that the bull market is now over (unlike Gartman who on Friday staked his reputation that the “Bull market has come to an end” only to unleash another rally in the S&P in the next two days).

Overnight, JPM’s Misla Matejka has done just that, and in his latest equity strategy note writes that JPM “continues to see the risk-reward for equities as unattractive” for 4 main reasons: i) complacency seen in VIX and in HY spreads could unwind further, ii) EPS momentum is deteriorating, iii) valuations are “outright expensive”, and iv) liquidity will be turning.

If the JPM strategist had left it at that, it would have been notable as it would be one of the very few, unhedged bearish recos on Wall Street. He did not, however, and said that after the early periof of turbulence, markets will continue rising, effectively nullifying his warning because what’s the point of selling just to have to buy again a few weeks or months down the line, or as Matejka put it the “medium-term fundamental view remains that equities are in an upcycle and that the potential consolidation should be used as another good entry point.”

Hedging aside, here are the details of Matejka’s short-term bearish call, who writes that “we have been very bullish on equities in 1H, but think they will be consolidating during the second half of the year. Equities performed strongly in 1H and the key positive catalysts moved behind us. Now that SXXP is down 4% since May, where to from here? We believe a continued weakening in USD will keep helping EM & commodities (OW) and any rise in Bund yields will help Eurozone Banks (OW), but we think broader equity markets are likely to continue consolidating.”

Looking at the big picture, JPM sees the following “headwinds” as immediate red flags:

  • 1) The change in liquidity provision by the main central banks is likely to have an impact on equities, given very elevated P/E multiples currently. In 2H ’13, Fed tapering was ultimately positive for equities, after an initial correction, but then the starting P/E for MXWO was 30% cheaper than current. Also, CPI, PMIs and EPS were all up then, but that might not be the case this time around. Will central banks make a “policy mistake” by tightening liquidity into potential growth and inflation weakening? Within this, we think US bond yields remain stuck in a range, but the potential for Eurozone yields to move up is greater.

  • 2) Earnings delivery likely to weaken in 2H, post a strong Q1 and still adequate Q2. We were very bullish regarding the upturn in earnings, but the hurdle rate is much steeper in 2H and the base effects are turning less positive. The potentially weaker activity and pricing backdrop into year-end could be the headwind. Global PPI, which is typically strongly correlated to global EPS momentum, is likely to decelerate in 2H. After spending months in positive territory, we note SXXP EPS revisions are outright negative now, lead lower by Cyclicals. Stocks’ reaction to Q2 misses, and to the beats, was poorer than typical.

  • 3) Soft patch in global activity ahead? US growth momentum is mixed, with a rollover in manufacturing, credit, housing and car sales. US CESI is negative – the gap between CESI and SPX remains uncomfortably high. China new project starts are soft. The last time this happened, in summer ‘15, a phase of significant de-risking followed. A big stimulus package stabilised the activity then, but this time around, a new support programme might not be forthcoming. Shibor rate is up 200bp ytd. Eurozone has been very strong so far, but even that region could see some softness ahead. We note Eurozone PMIs are sequentially lower for two months in a row.

  • 4) Equity multiples are in outright expensive territory. There is some complacency in risk pricing, with HY spreads near record low, and VIX as well. Aug-Sep seasonals were typically weak

Enough for JPM’s bearish near-terms: now here is the longer-term bullish perspective: as part of the hedge, the JPM strategist asks if “the potential increase in volatility during the 2H something that might become more sinister than just the typical profit-taking given poorer seasonals, a valuation headwind from bond yields repricing, and a likely soft patch in global earnings and activity momentum?” And answers “We don’t think so.” Here’s why:

  1. Earnings base remains depressed in EM and in Eurozone. There is significant medium-term upside potential from here in both regions.
  2. Credit conditions are supportive, real rates are low and yield curves are generally steep.
  3. Equities are still under-owned, where the only buyers over the past 10 years have been the corporates, through buybacks. There are some signs that this is starting to change.
  4. Even though in absolute terms equities appear pricey, the relative value proposition between equities and fixed income still holds.
  5. USD behaviour might not add to the risk-off concerns. Typically, as one enters a de-risking phase, USD has tended to rally. This, in turn, has become a problem for EM, as the EM central banks need to hike interest rates in order to protect their currencies, which ultimately hurts EM growth. Also, a rallying USD is a headwind for commodity prices. We do not see USD strengthening this time around.

* * *

The cliff notes version of the above, of course, is “hedging one’s bets”: if stocks drop, JPM has 4 reasons why that should have happened. If they don’t, JPM has 5 reasons why they should continue higher. Perhaps the most important take home from all of the above is the following statement from JPM: “the only buyers over the past 10 years have been the corporates, through buybacks.” This is a concern, because as we showed earlier using a SocGen chart, the amount of corporate buybacks has declined by 20% Y/Y, the biggest drop since the financial crisis…

… leaving open the question “who will step in to buy”?

via http://ift.tt/2wIZU5B Tyler Durden

Turkey’s Drive To Restore Ottoman Era Influence

Via Disobedient Media

After nearly a century of being relegated to a smaller regional power acting alongside the Israeli-Saudi nexus, Turkey’s new leadership stands prepared to significantly increase its political power and prestige. Taking advantage of various conflicts around their borders, Turkey has embarked on a bit to expand their influence not just in the Middle East, but also on the borders of an increasingly volatile European Union. These actions, along with consolidation domestically and an increased focus on militarization mean that Turkey’s profile stands a good chance of rising over the next decade.

I. Expansion In The Middle East

Turkey has taken an active role in Syrian territories which were historically part of the Ottoman Eyalet (Province) of ?am by deploying military assets which they claim are part of their efforts to help bring an end to the Syrian Civil War. However, Turkey’s intervention came only after they used their control of Syria’s northern border to fracture rebel groups who might have opposed them. Wikileaks’ Berat’s Box release has revealed that organizations tied to government officials such as Powertrans were directly implicated in the facilitation of ISIS oil imports. Leaked German government documents published by public broadcaster Arbeitsgemeinschaft der öffentlich-rechtlichen Rundfunkanstalten der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (ARD) also show that Turkey supported a number of other jihadist groups in Syria in addition to Palestine’s Hamas and Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. This strategy of supporting various jihadist groups in Syria created a rebel coalition that was prone to infighting, unable to effectively mount concerted resistance to ISIS and created a need for Turkish assistance which began when troops entered Syria in August 2016. Russian new source Sputnik reported that since intervening, Turkey had established military bases in the Aktarin district north of Aleppo and the city of al-Bab which was previously held by ISIS.

With a firm presence in northern Syria, Turkey has now begun a diplomatic dance of name calling and accusations with the United States over disagreements about support for Kurdish YPG rebel groups operating in Syria. Turkey opposes arming the Kurdish YPG due to their close relationship with the Turkey Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê (PKK), a Turkish communist political party and rebel group which maintains military assets in northern Iraq. On July 19th, 2017, the Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency leaked the precise locations of a number of U.S. military bases in Syria in a move that understandably caused considerable anger to American officials. The revelation was likely in response to Turkish anger at President Donald Trump’s decision in May 2017 to arm the YPG. Erdogan has recently threatened to attack U.S. troop positions should they stand in the way of future operations against the YPG according to Turkish media.

Map published by Turkey’s Anadolu Agency showing locations of U.S. bases in northern Syria

Turkey has also sought out diplomatic confrontation with regional power Saudi Arabia in the Kingdom’s conflict with Qatar where it has deployed troops to the Gulf state. Disobedient Media has previously reported that the move is part of efforts by Turkey and Iran to position themselves as political opponents and replacements to Saudi Arabia, which has for many years acted as the Middle East’s dominant regional player alongside Israel in a power sharing dynamic referred to as the Israeli-Saudi nexus. With Saudi Arabia likely to experience an internal conflict between factions of the royal family, Turkey hopes to be able to marginalize the Kingdom and promote itself as a regional alternative.

II. Expansion In East/West Europe

Finally, Turkey has also sought confrontation with the European Union, using Greece as a flash point. Traditionally a territory of the Ottoman Empire, Greece has historically had a hostile relation with its Aegean neighbor. But relations have taken a particularly sour turn over the past year. In January 2017, Al Jazeera reported that Turkey had threatened to end its migration deal with Greece after a Greek court refused to return eight soldiers who had sought asylum in the aftermath of the failed 2016 coup d’état. The escalation came after a year of competition in the fishing industry, where Greek fisherman claimed the Turkish government had created conditions which unfairly benefitted Turkish fishing enterprises. Tensions reached a new height after reports in July 2017 that the Greek Coast Guard had fired on a Turkish freighter in the Aegean Sea which authorities claimed was carrying narcotics. Turkey has also threatened retaliation against Greece for engaging in oil exploration in Cyprus, which has been partitioned between the two countries since a military invasion in 1974.

Arab American news source Al-Monitor has noted that the escalation in the Aegean is less about historical differences than it is Turkey’s relationship with the European Union. This confrontation has lead to a breakdown in military cooperation between Turkey and European powers such as Germany. Unchecked, these disagreements could lead to a devolution in cooperation ending with Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO and and end to it’s bid to join the EU.

While Greece represents a major financial liability to the European Union, it is an excellent opportunity for Turkey to make a power play and distract European states from other issues. Disobedient Media has previously outlined the EU’s campaign to consolidate control over Greece by imposing harsh austerity measures after playing political and financial allies of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Despite the political control it now enjoys, Europe is stuck attempting to run a country which consistently requires financial support and struggles to maintain adequate military deterrents in the face of Turkish military spending.

The focus on Greece distracts from other problems such as alarming threats by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an to weaponize Turkish and Middle Eastern migrant populations against Europe. In March 2017, Erdo?an told European officials they would “pay the price” after the Netherlands and provinces in Germany blocked Turkish officials from engaging in political campaigns among Turkish migrants living abroad. The New York Times reported that Erdo?an alarmingly exhorted Turks to ethnically replace Europeans by outbreeding them. Sources estimate that there are between 5 to 10 million Turks living throughout the European Union, primarily in Germany. Politico has accused Erdo?an of using the European migrant crisis to further his own political agenda. In 2016, Erdo?an threatened to unleash millions of refugees and migrants into Europe after politicians moved to suspend talks to include Turkey in the European Union.

Voice of America has also noted that Turkey is currently engaged in a global drive to build 18 mosques internationally in locations such as Cuba, the United States, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, the Philippines, Palestine, the United Kingdom and Albania. In 1998, Erdo?an was jailed for four months after penning a poem where he referred to mosques as “our barracks.”

III. Domestic Consolidation Of Power And Militarization

After weathering the July 2016 coup against the Turkish government, Erdo?an used the incident to not only purge political opponents, but to sell Turks propaganda promising a new geopolitical vision. In October, just a few months after the coup, Foreign Policy noted that maps displayed on Turkish TV showed the country with its borders extended into the Aegean as well as into Syria and Northern Iraq. The message has resonated with Turkish citizens, who in April 2017 voted in a sweeping constitutional referendum which strengthened the office of the president, weakened Turkey’s legislature and allowed for more political appointees in the judiciary branch.

Map shown on Turkish TV with borders slightly expanded

Pro-peace organization PAX has detailed Turkey’s place as the sixth largest arms importer worldwide, seeking to be self sufficient by 2023. The Turkish military has evolved over the years as well, upgrading its existing stockpiles of equipment and integrating new types of platforms such as drones. Erdo?an also pledged in early July 2017 to commit towards the construction of Turkish aircraft carriers starting in 2021. Figures close to the Turkish leader have urged even more extreme defense measures. On March 16, 2017, The Express reported that a cleric close to Erdo?an’s AK Party urged Turkey to develop its own nuclear weapons. Both mainstream media sources and public figures have expressed concerns that other Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar may have already developed their own weapons of mass destruction.

With the dramatic shifts in the geopolitical balance of the Middle East and the European Union facing a number of issues stemming from unrest and terrorism stemming from the migrant crisis, ongoing conflict with Russia and growing disagreements with Eastern Europe, Turkey is well positioned to increase its stature in the region. Should Erdogan avoid further internal destabilization in the form of coups and unrest from neighboring countries, it is more than likely that Turkey will once again experience a glimmer of the prestige it once enjoyed under the Ottoman Empire.

via http://ift.tt/2uVtAKs William Craddick

Watch Live: President Trump Makes Impromptu Statement

With no background on what is to be discussed, The White House has quickly arrange for an impromptu statement from President Trump…

China trade wars, North Korea nuclear war, Venezualan threats, Merck CEO, or White Supremacists? What’s your guess?

  • TRUMP EXPECTED TO ADDRESS CHARLOTTESVILLE, DECRY RACISM: CNN

Live Feed:

via http://ift.tt/2hYFWR0 Tyler Durden

Stock Market Warning Siren Is Blaring

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

Are we blinded yet by the brilliance of corporate earnings?

“Adjusted” earnings growth is 10.2% year-over-year in the second quarter, according to FactSet, based on the 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results. The energy sector was a key driver, with 332% “adjusted” earnings growth from the oil-bust levels of a year ago.

The sectors with double-digit earnings growth: information technology (14.7%), utilities (10.8%), and financials (10.3%). The rest were single digit. Earnings in the consumer discretionary sector declined.

Revenues grew 5.1%, also led by the energy sector. At the beginning of Q2 last year, the WTI grade of crude oil traded at $35 a barrel. In Q2 this year, WTI ranged from $42 to $53 a barrel.

So the Wall-Street hype machine is cranking at maximum RPM to propagate the great news that earnings are soaring, and that this is the reason why stocks should also be soaring, and forget everything else. The hype machine carefully avoids showing the bigger picture which is dismal for earnings and ludicrous for stock valuations.

Aggregate earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 companies on a trailing 12-months basis rose for the second quarter in a row.

 

That’s the foundation of the Wall Street hype.

 

But here’s the thing with these EPS: they’re now back where they had been in… May 2014.

Yep. More than three years of earnings stagnation. No growth whatsoever, even for “adjusted” earnings. In fact, on a trailing 12-month basis, aggregate EPS of the S&P 500 companies are down about 5% from their peak in Q4 2014. And yet, over the same three-plus years of total earnings stagnation, the S&P 500 index has soared 34%.

This chart shows those “adjusted” earnings per share for the S&P 500 companies (black line) and the S&P 500 index (blue line). Chart via FactSet (click to enlarge). I marked August 2012 as the point five years ago, and May 2014:

And these are not earnings under the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). FactSet uses “adjusted” earnings for its analyses. These are the earnings with the bad stuff “adjusted” out of them by management to manipulate earnings into the most favorable light. Not all companies report “adjusted” earnings. Some only report GAAP earnings and live with the consequences. But others put adjusted earnings into the foreground, and that’s what Wall Street dishes up.

Since August 2012, the trailing 12-month “adjusted” earnings per share of the companies in the S&P 500 index rose just 12% in total. About the rate of inflation – nothing more. Over the same five years, the S&P 500 Index soared 72%.

And there’s another thing: these earnings per share are heavily influenced by the share count. Companies have been on a huge borrowing binge over these years, fueled by historically low interest rates, and a big part of that borrowed money wasn’t used to create new things, expand, invest, or invent, but to buy back their own shares. This type of financial engineering lowered the share count, and thus artificially increased earnings per share. Growth in EPS due to financial engineering is fake earnings growth.

This is the peculiar situation of today: On average, these companies have stagnating earnings per share propped up by “adjusting” these earnings and by financial engineering. The price-earnings multiple (P/E ratio) for stagnating companies should be low. In January 2012, the P/E ratio for the companies in the S&P 500 index was 14.9. And that was high. As of Friday, the aggregate P/E ratio is 24.3:

But look what happened. The P/E ratio peaked in March at 26.6. Since then, the S&P 500 has ticked up 3% and earnings have risen to this glorious level Wall Street has been hyping and the P/E ratio has come down a wee tiny bit…. back to where it had been in the fall of 2016.

In the five-year picture, earnings per share – however doctored they’d been – expanded just 12%. But share prices skyrocketed 73%. And thus the P/E ratio soared. These phases of “multiple expansion” are part of the stock market’s boom and bust cycle. They’re invariably followed by periods of multiple contraction.

Multiple contraction doesn’t stop at the average long-run P/E ratio but falls far below it, because that’s how the long-run average P/E ratio is formed: by periods far above the average (right now) and by periods far below the average. In the past, this type of multiple contraction from the top of the range to the lower end of the range – the process of “reversion to the mean” – offered some hair-raising rides for the stock market overall and for ludicrously overvalued stocks in particular, with many money-losing companies not making it to the next phase.

No one knows the date when this process kicks off in earnest, though everyone wants to know it so they can scurry out of the way beforehand. But when enough folks are trying to scurry out of the way, they’ll will precipitate the beginning of that process. That’s always how it happens.

The last big enthusiastic buyer, China, is leaving the party. Read…  This Hits the Wheezing Commercial Real Estate Bubble at Worst Possible Time

via http://ift.tt/2wJ3g8t Tyler Durden

Report: ‘Unite the Right’ Organizer Jason Kessler Was Occupy-Movement Obama Supporter 8 Mos Ago

‘Unite the Right’ organizer Jason Kessler was reportedly an Obama supporter involved in the Occupy movement as recently as November 2016, before establishing his white supremacist group “Unity & Security for America” in January, 2017.

Per the Southern Poverty Law Center:

Rumors abound on white nationalist forums that Kessler’s ideological pedigree before 2016 was less than pure and seem to point to involvement in the Occupy movement and past support for President Obama.

At one recent speech in favor of Charlottesville’s status as a sanctuary city,Kessler live-streamed himself as an attendee questioned him and apologized for an undisclosed spat during Kessler’s apparent involvement with Occupy. Kessler appeared visibly perturbed by the woman’s presence and reminders of their past association.

Kessler himself has placed his “red-pilling” around December of 2013 when a PR executive was publicly excoriated for a tasteless Twitter joke about AIDS in Africa.

Regarding the incident, Kessler stated “… so it was just a little race joke, nothing that big of a deal, she didn’t have that many followers, she probably didn’t think anybody was gonna see it,”

Regardless of Kessler’s past politics, the rightward shift in his views was first put on display in November, 2016 when his tirade against Wes Bellamy began.

Kessler was chased away from his own press conference on Sunday, given in the aftermath of the deadly riots the previous day.

 

Kessler was a CNN Assignment Editor?

Internet sleuths discovered a CNN report on Occupy Wall St. from five years ago submitted by “CNN Assignment Editor Jason Kessler.” Same guy?

Something’s rotten in many states… 

Nothing smells right about any of this. In fact, Lee Stranahan has connected the “Unite the Right” rally to an identical Neo-Nazi movement in Ukraine supported by John McCain and Hillary Clinton.

Stranahan Periscope Here

Hour long interview with Crowdsource the Truth here:

Developing…

 

via http://ift.tt/2w6JnKA ZeroPointNow

Dunford: “Military Options” For North Korea Ready If Sanctions Fail

After President Donald Trump warned on Friday that the US military is “locked and loaded” and presumably prepared for an all-out nuclear showdown with North Korea, administration officials engaged in that most artful of Trump-era maneuvers: softening the president’s rhetoric without appearing to undercut him.

Now that financial markets are taking the threat of nuclear war between the US and North Korea seriously – or were until this morning – the administration is trying to walk a fine line between reassuring investors that nuclear war isn’t imminent, while stressing that all military options remain on the table. Echoing comments made by CIA Director Mike Pompeo on the Sunday talk shows, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford emphasized during a meeting with South Korea's president that the US will only resort to military options once all "diplomatic and economic sanctions" have been exhausted, according to Reuters.

“U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford said on Monday U.S. military options being prepared against North Korea would be for when diplomatic and economic sanctions failed, South Korea's president's office said on Monday.

 

Dunford made the comments to South Korean President Moon Jae-in in a 50-minute meeting to discuss recent issues including North Korean provocation, office spokesman Park Su-hyun told a media briefing.”


Gen Dunford met President Moon during his tour of the region

A report in the New York Times expanded on the chairman's remarks, which were published by local media in Korean, but were translated by the US media.

“The United States military’s priority is to support our government’s efforts to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through diplomatic and economic pressure,” General Dunford was quote as saying in a Korean-language statement released by Mr. Moon’s office after the meeting. “We are preparing a military option in case such efforts fail.” 

Dunford added that he was supporting Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s effort to push the North toward talks, and a possible peaceful resolution, though “as a military leader” Dunford said it’s still his duty to make sure the president has “viable military options.” Though he also stressed that the North's nuclear program threatens "the entire global community," as the Hill reported.

'U.S. military spokesman Capt. Darryn James said Dunford "stressed that North Korea's ballistic missile and nuclear weapons program threaten the entire global community.'

 

'He conveyed America’s readiness to use the full range of military capabilities to defend our allies and the U.S. homeland,' James said.”

Dunford also said that the US intends to honor its commitment to protect South Korea, and that the relationship between the two countries “has not changed,” according to Bloomberg.

“General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to protect South Korea after a meeting with President Moon Jae-in, spokesman Park Su-hyun told reporters in Seoul on Monday. He added that the military option would only be used if diplomatic and economic pressure fail, Park said.

 

‘Dunford said the U.S.’s security commitment for South Korea’s defense has not changed,’ Park told reporters after Moon’s meeting with the general. ‘Dunford told Moon everyone hopes to resolve the current situation without going to war.’”

During his trip in Asia, the general intends to emphasize that Washington is expected to complete the deployment of the Thaad missile system in South Korea, despite China's repeated protests issue that bothers the Chinese. The visit to Beijing was planned long before the escalation in tensions with North Korea, according to the Times.

via http://ift.tt/2wJqL14 Tyler Durden

Junk Bonds Wave a Red Flag at Risk

The market should bounce this morning, but after that we’re heading down.

The technical damage from last week was severe with the bull market trendline that has supported stocks since early November being violated on the S&P 500.

GPC81417

Moreover, stocks finished down during August options expiration week in six of the last seven years. So there is also a negative historical pattern for this week.

However, something much worse than all of this is brewing in the financial system. The junk bond market has broken out of a rising wedge pattern that formed since the 2016 lows.

GPC814172

This is a VERY bad sign for risk in general as junk bonds lead stocks. Indeed, based on all of the above, we've got the makings of a SHARP move lower for the markets this week.

GPC814173

You've been warned.

For more insights that can help you see serious returns from your investments, join our FREE daily e-letter, Gains Pains & Capital.

Every weekday you'll receive our research reports before the market's open.

In the last 6 months we've called the massive sell-off in the $USD, the out-performance by Emerging Markets, and more.

And best of all, it's 100% totally FREE.

To join us, swing by: http://ift.tt/QHtIFM

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

via http://ift.tt/2wJnEWW Phoenix Capital Research