One Trader Explains Why The Bond Market Needs A PR Firm: “It’s All A Bunch Of Tripe”

"The bond market needs to hire a new public relations firm," says former fund manager Richard Breslow, reflecting on the panacea of negativity surrounding the weakness in global bond markets. His suggestion is simple – "get over it" – bond yields are going higher and you better get used to it, it's just needs to be seen for the 'positive' that it is…

Via Bloomberg,

Globally rising sovereign yields has been the story of the week. One central bank after another, here, there and everywhere, have brought the market up short (or long in this case) by overtly shifting to a more hawkish stance. But the way it’s being portrayed is all wrong.

 

I’ve been hearing descriptive words like, rout, tantrum, debacle. No shortage of mentions that prices are getting killed and speculation about who and which strategies will suffer soonest. Hand-wringing has become ubiquitous. Traders are demanding some schadenfreude to calm their nerves. This is all a bunch of tripe.

 

What they need is a much more seasoned hand to make sure the message gets out properly. Probably a pro from Hollywood rather than Wall Street. We should be hearing, “Hurrah, rates can now rise to reflect better times.” Forget prices are falling — too negative — extol the obverse: yields are going up! Make them your new buy on a dip. That this is going to be great for savers. Get an academic paper out there and hold a symposium on why, human nature being what it is, inflation expectations and wages will actually rise. “And we have newspaper people on the payroll, don’t we, Tom?”

 

I have news for you, too. Income inequality will never be cured with manufactured rates at crisis levels forever. The distortions to investment decisions is just too great. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said last night that, uncertainty surrounding U.S. government policy may be holding back economic growth given the negative impact on business investment. Hardly. Why bother investing when you can leverage up for nothing, buy back your stock and be an instant hero? 

 

Rates are going up. You’re likely to hear that again from the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report and next week’s testimonies.

 

The only pushback you’re going to get will come from their unfortunate desire that it happen gently. The only way to get investors to wake up and behave as if they truly do realize that we are transitioning to a new paradigm, with all the knock-on consequences for other markets, is to tolerate the occasional panic. “I told you so” isn’t always just a snotty retort.

We hope he's right…but worry that if bonds (which are the most levered aspect of the Risk-Parity strategy) continue to surge in yield, then the forced unwind of stocks at the margin will stall the hope in central bankers that this time is different.

via http://ift.tt/2tygILj Tyler Durden

The Flint Water Disaster Shows Why We Need Markets

Authored by Christopher Westley via The Mises Institute,

Many moons ago, I wrote a piece for mises.org introducing Westley’s Law, which was my theory for government growth based on its being held to lower expectations, relative to the market. It struck a nerve, of sorts. Many emailed me to say the idea required expansion into a book.

If I ever produce one, I’ll write up a section on the Flint water crisis, which is a classic case of the Law applied to the resource most central to man’s survival. For decades, Flint’s water consumers looked the other way while its politically-protected, socialist water utility overcharged and then flubbed delivery of water to Flint’s residents. (I am wary of calling them consumers because that term implies the ability to opt out.) 

This incompetence lead to a series of reforms that were actually deforms. Chief among them was the decision to make the Flint River the utility’s primary water source in 2014, involving the use of faulty piping. The result: contaminated water, elevated lead levels in the water supply, sickness, and death. 

The United States’ public broadcasting service aired a documentary about the crisis last month with the predictable conclusion that it wasn’t Flint’s socialist organization of its water system that was the problem, but that some bad, incompetent people led it. This is the go-to explanation for any government failure. It’s like arguing the Soviet Union failed simply because of its dearth of Public Administration graduate programs. 

Economists think differently, and in the case of Flint, note what can happen when producers are not motivated by profit, causing them to focus on factors other than consumer satisfaction. Since government provision of goods necessarily operates outside of the profit system, individuals operating in the public sector must be motivated by other factors, such as the maximization of power, benefits, and budgets. The real scandal in Flint was that its water system placed actual water consumers far down its list of priorities, which makes sense given that (i) its funding depended more on satisfying state and federal regulators and (ii) its culture rewarded job security and fat payrolls.

Yoda might say, “Hardly new ideas, these.” At least, not to Austrians. Mises noted in Human Action,

Bureaucratic conduct of affairs is conduct bound to comply with detailed rules and regulations fixed by the authority of a superior body. It is the only alternative to profit management. … Whenever the operation of a system is not directed by the profit motive, it must be directed by bureaucratic rules.

The rules then become ends in themselves. In contrast, Rothbard wrote (in his 1961 essay, “The Fallacy of the ‘Public Sector’”),

The productivity of the private sector does not stem from the fact that people are rushing around doing “something,” anything, with their resources; it consists in the fact that they are using these resources to satisfy the needs and desires of the consumers. Businessmen and other producers direct their energies, on the free market, to producing those products that will be most rewarded by the consumers, and the sale of these products may therefore roughly “measure” the importance that the consumers place upon them.

Such statements emphasize the vital importance of the private provision of things that matter, and the risks of relying on public provision. No one cares about shortcomings in the public provision of, say, state road maps or space travel, because hardly anyone uses them. But when it comes to mail delivery, defense, basic property protection, education, health care, and water, the persistent sense of crisis exists due to the obvious if unacknowledged lack of consumer sovereignty. 

Which is why the Flint water crisis matters, because it calls into question the public provision of anything. This is why the feds had to get involved, pump millions of dollars in coerced capital into the region, finance public broadcasting documentaries, and make it go away. Unfortunately for Flint water dependents, the institutional structure remains. 

The horror of it all is that the same structure exists at most of the water systems in the United States. Which brings me back to Westley’s Law.

It exists largely because those operating the structure are held to lower standards than what we observe in the market. Water boards and water provision become ends in themselves, with the implicit understanding that there are few alternatives to dissatisfied consumers.

Yet, one can easily imagine a competitive market for water that could replace the now dominant socialized system. Why don’t water firms compete for consumers while maintaining and investing in a shared infrastructure that delivers water to homes and businesses? This is essentially the system that emerged in telephony in the 1980s, and the changes unleashed in innovation, delivery, prices, and output continue to astound. 

They astound so much, in fact, they apparently must never, ever be applied to other utilities, including water. 

But there is hope. Last week, five individuals — including Michigan’s director of human and health services — were charged with involuntary manslaughter for failing to alert the public about the outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease linked to Flint’s contaminated water. Holding public officials criminally accountable for nefarious outcomes is crucial to stem the growth of government in general. 

Why not? If Volkswagen can be fined billions of dollars for intentional (albeit miniscule) emissions violations, if Wells Fargo can be fined in the hundreds of millions for padding its bottom line with fraudulent accounts, if two prominent Fox News figureheads lose their jobs and are fined millions following sexual harassment allegations, if Mylan should pay $465 million to settle allegations that it misclassified Epipen treatments, if Samsung should pay a steep price for faulty batteries in one of its popular phones (causing them to explode) — all serious events in which not a soul was killed then why can’t public officials in Michigan be held responsible for the effects of a poisoned water supply for which they were responsible?

The fact that officials are not held to similar standards as those in the private sector is why government grows. Perhaps the Michigan arrests will spur others. Lord knows, when it comes to government malfeasance and unaccountability, Flint, Michigan, is a small tip of the iceberg.

via http://ift.tt/2sVz6Mb Tyler Durden

“Never Been Easier” – 2017 Stock Market ‘Drawdowns’ Lowest On Record (For Now)

For dip-buyers in the S&P 500, 2017 has actually been a tough year… because there hasn't been any.

As JPMorgan notes, 2017's 3% intra-year decline is the smallest since 1980 (tieing with 1995 which saw a 34% return)

This 3% drawdown (for now), continues a 6 year streak of drawdowns that are dramatically below the longer-term average of 14.1% drops intra-year.

But what happens now that Central Bank balance sheets are set to stop their expansion?

via http://ift.tt/2syvhgL Tyler Durden

Putin Reveals What He Discussed With Trump In Two-Hour Long First Meeting

Following their first ever, 2+ hour meeting which was originally supposed to last only 30-40 minutes, the question on everyone’s mind was what did the two discuss.

And, speaking at the beginning of his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Putin said that during his first meeting with US President Donald Trump, the two world leaders discussed the situation in Ukraine, Syria, the fight against terrorism and, surprisingly, cybersecurity.

“I had a very lengthy conversation with the President of the United States, there were a lot of issues such as Ukraine, Syria, other problems, some bilateral issues”  according to Interfax.

“We again returned to the issues of fighting terrorism and cybersecurity,” Putin added.

Until now, Putin and Trump had only spoken on the phone. They were not alone: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson were also present at the talks.

* * *

Earlier, during the press photo session, Trump told the media that “President Putin and I have been discussing various things, and I think it’s going very well.”

“We’ve had some very, very good talks, we are going to have a talk now and obviously that will continue,” Trump added, saying there are hopes of “a lot of very positive things happening.”

“It’s an honor to be with you, thank you,” Trump concluded, offering his hand to Putin.

“Spasibo [thank you],” the US leader added in Russian.

Addressing Trump, Putin then said that although the two leaders have “several times talked over the phone, including on some very important bilateral and international issues,” phone talks were “obviously not enough.” Meetings in person are “necessary” if the two countries want to resolve the “most pressing issues,” Putin added.

via http://ift.tt/2tpEafe Tyler Durden

US Oil Rig Count Rises But “Must Drop 150 For Oil Markets To Balance”

After falling for the first time this year last week, Baker Hughes reports US oil rig count rose once again (as perhaps Cindy impacted drilling last week) for the 23rd week in the last 24.

  • *U.S. TOTAL RIG COUNT UP 12 TO 952 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHI US
  • *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT UP 7 TO 763 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHI US
  • *U.S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 5 TO 189 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHI US

 

This week saw a resurgence in US crude production (as Cindy's effects wear off)…This is the highest Lower 48 production since Aug 2015…

And it is that production spike that poured coled water on the short-lived rally after DOE showed inventories dropping. However, as OilPrice.com's Tsvetana Paraskova notes, the rig count needs to drop drastically further if any equilibrium in the global oil market is possible…

Analysts and investors have been growing increasingly concerned that the OPEC-led production cuts would not be enough to bring the oil market back to balance, and now one investment bank, Morgan Stanley, is saying that if the market stands any chance of rebalancing next year, U.S. shale possibly needs to drop around 150 rigs.

“If OPEC doesn’t balance the market, the oil price will have to force it somewhere else, most likely in U.S. shale. For a chance of a balanced market in 2018, the U.S. rig count can no longer grow and possibly needs to contract ~150 rigs. Given current break-evens, this requires WTI between $46-50,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research report on Thursday, as quoted by MarketWatch.

According to Morgan Stanley, despite OPEC’s cuts, global inventory levels are currently around the same high as they were last year.

"To support prices in the mid-$50s, OPEC-12 would probably need to lower production by another 200,000-300,000 barrels a day and extend the output agreement to end-2018. We find this unlikely,” the bank’s analysts said.

 

“The combination of little impact on physical balances, but a strong signal to invest has meant that the OPEC cuts have had a perverse effect: on current trends, the oil market would be oversupplied again in 2018,” Morgan Stanley warned. And they see U.S. rig count in need of dropping between 120 and 180 rigs to keep oil output from flooding the market.

Last week, the number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States fell by a single rig, ending the US shale patch’s impressive run of 23 weeks of steady gains, but oil and gas rigs in the United States are still 509 rigs up from this time last year.

Morgan Stanley not only warned that the glut will be here to stay next year, but it also slashed its oil price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2017 for both WTI and Brent. The analysts cut their forecast for WTI price for the rest of this year to US$48 per barrel from the previous forecast of US$55. Brent forecast was lowered to US$50.50 from US$57.50.

via http://ift.tt/2tpsKrO Tyler Durden

Japanese Equity Market Outflows Spike To 8 Year High

With The Fed is full 'taper' mode and The ECB hinting, the world is left to rely on Kuroda to single-handedly buy-the-dip in stocks and maintain bond yields at the mandated level. With Japanese stocks fading in the last two weeks (as bond yields spike), it appears the ubiquitous 'hand of god' has disappeared

And judging by the biggest Japanese equity fund outflows in 8 years, the fear is spreading…

As Bloomberg notes, it appears a single institutional investor likely triggered the largest outflow from the iShares MSCI Japan exchange-traded fund, ticker EWJ, since the depths of the financial crisis.

The benchmark $16.5 billion ETF, which has notched a 9.2 percent return so far this year, was hit by a $759 million withdrawal Thursday, the biggest one-day outflow among U.S.-listed ETFs, and the most since September 2009.

“The volume data show this was likely one big investor, who is unnerved by Japan’s recent shakiness and wants out before it gets worse,” said Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, referring to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s election defeat Sunday that calls into question the economic reform agenda.

via http://ift.tt/2tpzF4d Tyler Durden

Did Junk Bonds Just Signal the End to This Credit Cycle?

Stocks are now in very serious trouble.

The S&P 500 has fallen to test its “election rally” trendline. If the market breaks down here, there’s essentially one giant “air pocket” down to 2,200 or so.

The bad news is that high yield credit (HYG), which leads the S&P 500, has already broken its respective trendline. This is a serious “risk off” signal.

Indeed, it gets worse. HYG is in fact breaking out of a massive rising wedge pattern that could very well mark the end for the 9 year bull market in risk.

What would this mean for stocks?

The 3rd and biggest Crisis 20 years.

A CRASH is coming.

And smart investors will use it to make literal fortunes.

We offer a FREE investment report outlining when the market will collapse as well as what investments will pay out massive returns to investors when this happens. It's called Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

We made 1,000 copies to the general public.

As I write this, only 35 are left.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

via http://ift.tt/2u0rjSv Phoenix Capital Research

Washington And Berlin On A Collision Course

Authored by Pepe Escobar via Counterpunch.org,

The Russia sanctions bill that passed the US Senate by 98:2 on June 15 is a bombshell; it directly demonizes the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, under the Baltic Sea, which is bound to double Gazprom’s energy capacity to supply gas to Europe.

The 9.5 billion euro pipeline is being financed by five companies; Germany’s Uniper and Wintershall; Austria’s OMV; France’s Engie; and Anglo-Dutch Shell. All these majors operate in Russia, and have, or will establish, pipeline contracts with Gazprom.

In a joint statement, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel and Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern stressed that, “Europe’s energy supply is a matter for Europe, not the United States of America”; “instruments for political sanctions should not be tied to economic interests”; and the whole thing heralds a “new and very negative quality in European-American relations”.

An oil trader in the Gulf bluntly told me, “the new sanctions against Russia basically amount to telling the EU to buy expensive US gas instead of cheap Russian gas. So the Germans and the Austrians basically told the Americans to buzz off.”

A top US intel source, Middle East-based and a dissident to the Beltway consensus, stresses how, “the United States Senate by a nearly unanimous vote have decided to declare war on Russia (sanctions are war) and Germany has threatened retaliation against the United States if it initiates sanctions.

Germany accused the United States of trying to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline of Russia to the EU so that the US can export their liquid natural gas to the EU, making the EU dependent on the United States.”
But then, there’s a possible game-changing aftermath; “That would spell the end of NATO if a trade war between the EU and the United States takes place.”

The usual Brexiteer suspects obviously are falling like a ton of bricks over the “Molotov-Ribbentrop 2 pipeline” – another trademark expression of paranoia by Poland.

They are even demonizing Germany for daring to do business with Russia, “undermining the security and economic interests of Eastern and Central Europe” and – yes, roars of laughter are in order — undermining “American emotional backing for NATO.”

So much pent-up “emotion” even leads to a nasty accusation of betrayal; “We know which side Poland is on. Which side is Germany on?”

What’s really unforgivable though is that Nord Stream 2, in practice, buries for good failed state Ukraine’s $2 billion in revenue from pipeline fees.

Nord Stream 2 is opposed by all the usual suspects; Poland; the Baltic states; Washington; but also the Nordic states. The top official argument is that it “harms EU energy security”. That in itself embeds a massive joke, as the EU has been harming itself in interminable “energy security” discussions in Brussels for over a decade.

Lucrative creative destruction, anyone?

Analyst Peter G. Spengler qualifies the US Senate bill as a “declared, but not yet executed act of warfare, an act of (sanctions) war against Germany and Austria directly, possible recipients within the EU indirectly.”

Spengler draws attention to the reminder of the FRG/USSR Agreement on Economic Cooperation of 1978 with a 25 years duration 1978 Agreement of Economic Cooperation between the then Federal Republic of Germany and the USSR, designed to last for 25 years; “This agreement together with all the foregoing treaties between West Germany and the Soviet Union were the basis on which [Helmut] Kohl could build his ‘Haus Europa’ with the Soviet Union/Russia from the summer of 1989 in Bonn onwards.”
Crucially, this agreement also included a gas transportation triangle between Moscow, Teheran and Bonn, and was “fiercely but completely clandestinely embattled by the Carter administration, among so many silent wars against the Federal Republic of Germany in those years.”

And guess who was trying to sabotage the agreement 24/7; recently deceased Polish “Grand Chessboarder” Zbigniew Brzezinski.

So nothing much changed since the late 1970s; Washington demonizing both Tehran and Moscow. The section of the US Senate bill related to Russia is some sort of after thought to yet another hardcore package against Iran, the Countering Iran’s Destabilizing Activities Act (which includes the Russia sanctions.)

It’s not an accident that the US Senate sanctions bill targets energy; this is a sub-product of a fierce energy war. But what is the US Senate really up to? Call it creative (lucrative) destruction.
The US Senate is convinced that Nord Stream 2 “would compete with US exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe”. Thus the US government “should prioritize the export of United States energy resources in order to create American jobs, help United States allies and partners, and strengthen United States foreign policy”.

Yet this has absolutely nothing to do with helping “allies and partners”; it’s rather a case of US energy majors getting a little help from their friends/puppets in the Senate. It’s in the public domain how US energy majors donated over $50 million in 2015/2016 to get these people elected.

Watch those Hamburg fireworks

Compared to the US Senate, the role of the European Commission (EC) in the saga remained somewhat murky, until it became clear it will interfere via a “mandate”. This “mandate” will have to be approved by a “reinforced qualified majority” vote by member states, a higher than usual threshold of 72 percent of EU states representing 65 per cent of the population.

Spengler observes how, “the commission’s continued attempts to get a legal foot in the contracts between European companies and Gazprom would be much more detrimental and potentially efficient than even a President’s signing of the Senate (and House) sanctions law.”

So where will this all lead? Arguably towards an extremely messy clash “between the European Commission/Court of Justice and German/Austrian (plus Russian) jurisdiction.”

The Senate bill will have to be backed by a veto-proof majority in the House; that vote won’t happen before the G-20 in Hamburg. Then it would become law – assuming President Trump won’t squash it.

The key, “nuclear” issue is a non-mandatory clause for the US Treasury to sanction those five Western firms involved in Nord Stream 2. If the law is approved, the White House better ignore it. Otherwise Germany, Austria and France will definitely interpret it as a declaration of war.

Trump and Chancellor Angela Merkel will definitely be on a collision course at the G-20, with Merkel emphasizing discussions on climate change, refugees and no trade protectionism, much to Trump’s disgust. The Russia sanctions bill just adds to the unholy mess. Expect a lot of fireworks “celebrating” those bilaterals in Hamburg.

 

via http://ift.tt/2tyyNIY Tyler Durden

Silver Tests Overnight Flash-Crash Lows

Spot silver prices have slipped lower since the payrolls data this morning and are now testing (and rebounding) the overnight flash-crash lows as Japan opened…

Spot Silver…

The futures volume is considerably lower in this drop than the $475mm dump last night…

Gold is also falling…

via http://ift.tt/2sOiI5b Tyler Durden