Economic Confidence Tumbles To 2 Year Lows As Democrats Lose Faith

Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy averaged -14 in May according to Gallup, equaling the lowest in two years and considerably lower than the -7 print a year ago…

 

In May, the current conditions score registered -5, one point higher than in April. This was the result of 25% of U.S. adults rating the current economy as “excellent” or “good,” and 30% rating it as “poor.” Meanwhile, the economic outlook score went down one point to -22. This was the result of 37% of U.S. adults saying the economy was “getting better” and 59% saying it was “getting worse.”


 

While Democrats are still the only party group to have net positive views of the economy, the latest score was their lowest since at least Jan 2014.

 

Now that Hillary is ‘the one’, we wonder how long before the Democrat index goes negative?

Source: Gallup

via http://ift.tt/1tn7VL4 Tyler Durden

“It’s Time To Panic” – Albert Edwards Warns Recession Is Imminent

“Everyone has a plan until they are punched in the face.” This famous Mike Tyson quote spells out the outlook for investors in the years ahead according to SocGen's Albert Edwards, who warns that investors will not only be punched in the face, they will also get knocked to the floor and kicked repeatedly in the ribs. In the event it is best to roll up into a ball. This won?t prevent all injury, but it will help avoid the most damaging blows. The same applies to investors in the Ice Age.

On 4 June 2009 Edwards wrote:

“The big news this week is that the Coppock Indicator has turned upwards. This is one of the most reliable technical indicators suggesting we are in a new long-term bull market. The Conference Board leading indicator has also just turned up decisively. Is an investor who remains underweight equities, expecting decisive new lows brave, or plain stupid?”

The answer is that it was I who was incredibly stupid. I?m used to looking stupid most of time as within this secular bear market, cyclical rallies last many years longer than each short-lived cyclical bear phase. But each gut-wrenching downturn takes equity indices to new lower lows. That moment is imminent.

As SocGen's Albert Edwards explains… We remain at the bearish extreme of the market.

It is not a pleasant place. It is cold, dark and damp. People either don?t speak to you or send you abusive e-mails. Members of your own family pretend not to know you. Actually, I made that last bit up. Although when I was going through my hippy phase in the second half of the 1970s (a decade too late), my mother did actually cross the street and walk past pretending she didn?t know me. Maybe that childhood experience of parental rejection made me the thick-skinned bear I am today?

As promised we have updated the Pring Turner chart…

It shows that the three previous US equity valuation bear markets (the top line being the real S&P) take a minimum of four recessions to play themselves out ? we have only suffered two since the peak of the bubble in 2000. The secular bear market only ends when cyclically-adjusted valuation measures reach rock bottom (such as the Shiller PE on the bottom line). Each successive recession (red part of real S&P ? top line) sees huge downturns, usually to new lower lows of both prices and valuations. That is why we reiterated our view early this year that in the coming recession the S&P will bottom at 550, a 75% decline from current levels.

The charts below are my favourite Ice Age charts, which I haven?t focused on for a long time.

The first shows the US equity earnings yield and the 10y bond yield back to 1950 and it demonstrates how successful investing depends on knowing what secular phase the market is in. The long bull market of 1982-2000, when both bond yields and equity yields fell together, was a mirror image of the 1965-1982 period during which the Dow stagnated for 17 years in nominal terms. Between 1965 and 2000, equity and bond yields were positively correlated as bond yields and inflation drove equity yields. The current Ice Age secular phase since 2000 has seen that positive correlation between equity and bond yields break down ? it is a mirror image of the 1950-1965 period when equity prices rose substantially (yields fell) despite rising bond yields.

The above charts are a trip down memory lane for me, and at my age it?s nice to reconnect with familiar old friends. But the key to the Ice Age thesis is to sound CONDITION RED ALERT as each recession approaches, because the equity outcome then always proves much worse than anyone expects due to the additional phase of secular de-rating.

So are we approaching a US recession? In the aftermath of the latest, weaker than expected, nonfarm payroll data, economists are certainly more worried. The excellent folks at Advisor Perspectives highlight The Fed?s Labour Market Conditions Index as suggesting a recession is imminent (the cumulative peak is an average of 9 months ahead of the start of recession and we are now four months beyond a peak).

For investors who think copper still has some predictive power, its recent move is disturbing.

*  *  *

We are coming up to the 20th anniversary of SocGen's Albert Edwards' formulation of the Ice Age thesis.

 

Others have climbed aboard with similar ideas of Secular Stagnation. But the Ice Age was not only about economics and the drift towards deflation; it was also a description of how financial markets would react.

In the Ice Age, government bonds re-rate in absolute and relative terms against equities which de-rate in absolute terms. Equity investors endure a secular valuation bear market lasting many economic cycles, punctuated by cyclical rallies that beguile investors into thinking, like now, that the horrors of the Ice Age are over.

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Elevated freeways are perfect kill zones

“There are going to be situations where people are going to go without assistance. 
That’s just the facts of life.” 
– Los Angeles Police Chief Daryl Gates

I have had several requests from friends to review the self-rescue gear
we carry in our Get Back Home (GBH) bags, probably due to the recent but not unexpected
flooding we have had this spring. readers may be surprised to learn that there is very little practical difference between self rescue from a flooded car and the common mountaineering skill known as rappelling.

I first began carrying self-rescue gear in our vehicles after considering how much of the highways in our major urban areas are elevated for miles and miles on end.  I know what happens to these elevated freeways when they are subjected to an earthquake, or other shock wave, such as from a nuclear device.

But what concerned me just as much is that these elevated choke points are perfect kill zones.  One or two lightly armed bad guys could easily cause a traffic jam and proceed to execute tens or hundreds of people until they either run out of ammunition or are stopped by someone with a firearm that is ready, willing, and able to do so.  However, two well-trained teams of heavily armed and armored “moderate rebels” proceeding to execute hundreds or thousands of people sitting in their cars (surely taking videos of their own violent deaths with their cell phones) might cause some of us, like me, to want to get the fuck off that elevated highway in a hurry.   

I realized that the same gear and skills to execute a self rescue from a flood, or exit an elevated-freeway kill zone, can also be very useful in getting one’s ass from point A to Point B, safely, in a TEOTWAWKI scenario such as an EMP attack.

Back in 2012, I posted a Zero Hedge article that included contents of a GBH pack:

Fear we are returning to a time in history where it is a common occurrence to fight for one’s life?

Purchase the items on the following shopping list to outfit your person with a Get Back Home (GBH) pack (aka Evacuation Pack, aka Bug Out Bag, aka Assault Pack, aka 3 Day Pack, aka Survival Pack).  It includes a First Aid Kit (aka FAK) and a set of clothing so you will not be forced to evacuate the city in your loafers, heels, wool suit, or dress (Read One Second After).  This pack can reside in the trunk of your car if you are a commuter or in the hall closet if you live and work in a city.

In this article, below, I will provide Zero Hedge readers with the updated contents of our GBH packs:

location, item, qty, description, cost   

c=Carry / i= In Pack / o=On Pack      

o,Belt,1,Webbing,$8.00
o,Pants,1,NorthFace Horizon Falls Convertible Nylon Pants,$50.00
o,Shirt,1,Vented Nylon Long Sleeve Shirt,$25.00
o,Shoes,1,Run-A-Moc Dash (Suede),$115.00
o,Socks,1,Wrightsock CoolMesh II,$11.00
o,Undershirt,1,UnderArmor (Summer) / Patagonia (Winter),$20.00
o,Underwear,1,UnderArmor (Summer) / Patagonia (Winter),$20.00

t,Backpack,1,Maxpedition Falcon II w/ 3 liter bladder,$130.00
o,Pack Leash,1,Pre-tied 20′ 550 paracord leashed to pack w/ biner,$10.00
i,Dry Bags,2,Sea to Summit lightweight dry sack (2 liter),Spare ammo, socks, undies, float bag,$24.00
o,Bag cover,1,Mountain Hardware Backpack Cover – non tactical look,$35.00

o,Anorak,1,Rainproof jacket w/ hood in muted color,$100.00
o,Rain pants,1,Rainproof pants in muted color,$100.00
i,Underwear,1,Spare UnderArmor – Black (in dry bag),$20.00
i,Socks,3,Spare socks – Wrightsock CoolMesh II (in dry bag),$33.00
o,Hat,2,Tilley and wool beenie,$50.00
o,Bandana,2,Muted colors,$10.00
o,Gloves,1,Work gloves w/ leather palm,$15.00

i,Datrex water,12,”Datrex water pouches (to fill CamelBak, bottle, and pre-hydrate)”,$6.71
o,Water Bottle/Filter,1,Katadyn water bottle with integrated filter,$33.00
i,Water Purification Tablets,1,Katadyn Micropur tablets,$13.95
i,Electrolytes,6,PowerBar Gel with caffeine ,6.00
i,firestarter,2,Bic/water proof matches,$4.00
i,Toilet Paper,1,Backpaking style-no tube,$2.00

c,Knife,1,Hoffner Folding Knife,$59.00
i,Multi Tool,1,Leatherman Skeletool,$40.00
o,Flashlight,1,Streamlight Polytac w/ extra cr123a batteries,$35.00
i,Shelter,1,Mylar emergency sleeping bag,$8.53
i,Mirror,1,Metal unbreakable survival mirror,$7.00
i,Sewing kit,1,Heavy nylon thread, needles, seem tape, buttons,$4.00
i,Patch kit,1,Bike tube patch kit,$3.00
i,Bike Pump,,All-valve bike pump,$20.00
i,Hack Saw,1,Mini Hack Saw w/ 6″ blades (master key),$9.50

i,Radio/Light/Charger,1,iRonsnow hand-cranked radio,light, phone charger,$19.99
c,Watch,1,Casio Pathfinder solar,$150.00
i,Maps,2,Laminated state and city map(s),$4.00
i,Compass,1,Suunto MC-2 Global,$56.35
o,Marking pen,1,Sharpie,$0.50

c/i,Sidearm,1,FN FiveseveN 5.7 x 28 pistol w/ 5-20 rnd mags (EDC 3, 2 in pack),$1,000.00
o,Holster,1,Kydex FBI cant on paddle,$65.00
o,Mag carrier-pistol,2,Kydex on paddles (2),$30.00
o,Mag carrier-rifle,2,Cloth molle on pack (2),$25.00
i,Rifle,1,PS90 w/ Z-Point, Urban ERT sling, and 3-50 rnd mags,$2,000.00
c/i/o,Ammo,250,FN 5.7 x 28,$125.00
o,Body armor,1,Concealable III-A soft body armor – surplus LE,$200.00
i,Weapon light,1,Streamlight TLR-3 rail mounted weapon light,$90.00
i,Monocular,1,Zeiss MiniQuick 5×10 T,$139.00

i,Safety Glasses -Rx if needed,1,Clear safety glasses (rx?) w/ keeper,$20.00

i,N95 masks,2,3M N95 Mask,$0.50
i,Goggles,1,Clear swim goggles,$16.00
i,Iodine tablets,1,”iOSAT Potassium Iodide Tablets, 130 mg (14 Tablets)”,$9.00
i,Nitrile gloves,3,Latex examination gloves (pair),$0.30

i,Sunscreen/Chafe Balm,1,Dermatone,$3.00
o,Tourniquet ,1,R.A.T.S. Tourniquet,$17.00
i,Coagulent,1,CELOX-A Hemostat syringe,$23.00
i,Chest Seal,1,HALO Chest Seals,$16.77
i,Decompression Needle,2,North American Rescue ARS,$19.98
i,Steri-Strips,4,3M Steri-Strips,$6.00
i,Betadine scrub,1,B-D Easy Scrub Brush,$1.00
i,Betadine swabs,2,Foil packed single betadine swabs,$1.00
i,Gauze roll,2,Israeli battle dressing,$4.00
i,4x4s,4,Sterile 4×4 gauze pads,$0.20
i,Coban,1,”2″” roll (tan)”,$3.50
i,Rx ABX,60,Bactrim DS (1-3x day x 10 days) vs Moxifloxacin (1/day for PCN+SULF allg),$15.00
i,Fever/Pain medicine,10,Excedrin travel packets-Extra Strength,$6.70
i,Mole Skin,1,2 inch roll,$5.00
i,Alcohol prep,5,Alcohol prep pads,$0.50
i,Benzoin,5,Tincture of Benzoin ampulet,$2.50

i,Passport / DL / CHL,1,Laminated copies of ID,  
i,Important numbers,1,Laminated list of emergency contacts,  
i,Cash,3,USD/CAD/MXN,$750.00
i,Coins,10,0.1 ounce barbaric relics,$1,450.00

i,Rope,1,7mm Static Accessory Cord: 25-50 meters,$132.60 Mammut
Accessory Cord – 50m spool

i,Harness,1,Ultralite,$44.96 Black
Diamond Couloir Harness

i,Locking Carabiner,1,Ultralite,$21.95 Wild
Country Ascent Lite Locking Carabiner

i,Belay Device,1,Must have “”high-fricton mode”” for accessory cord use,$16.46 Black
Diamond ATC-XP Belay Device

i,Alpine Aiders,1,Alpine Aiders,$26.36 Black Diamond
Alpine Aider

i,Grappling Hook,1,BD Grappling Hook,$11.96 Black
Diamond Grappling Hook

i,Dynex Runners,2,BD Sewn Dynex (1) 120cm and(1) 240 cm,$22.42 Black
Diamond Dynex Sewn Runners

i,Ascender,1,Wild Country Ropeman-Gold small ropes,$35.96 Wild
Country Ropeman MK2F Ascender-Gold

i,Large Oval Caribeaner,1,Round profile and oval shape for Ropeman,$10.36 Petzl
Owall Carabiner

i,Prusik loop,1,Prusik Cord 6.5mm, 20″, smaller dia than acc cord,$10.95 BlueWater
Dynamic Prusik Cord 6.5mm – Sewn Loop

i,Carabiners,2,Ultralite,$11.12 CAMP USA
Nano 22 Carabiner

i,Pulley,1,Metal wheel for crossing steel-cable,$37.56 Petzl
Partner Compact Pulley

There are several changes to the prior list, but this article will focus on the addition of the last section with the self-rescue gear, all of which fits easily in the middle pocket of the Falcon II, with plenty of room to spare for other items on the list.  I do keep the Alpine Aiders attached to the grappling hook with a runner at the top of the pocket, so that I can very quickly get me and my gear over walls or up in a ceiling that is 8 ft or higher.

I first learned how to safely use much of this self-rescue gear as a young boy learning to rock climb, then later received more advanced instruction.  It is important to note that this article is not an instructional course.  I am not a ropes, rappelling, or self-rescue instructor. SELF-RESCUE IS A VERY DANGEROUS ACTIVITY AND CARRIES THE REAL RISK OF SERIOUS INJURY OR DEATH.  I highly recommend that you take instruction from a certified and reputable instructor.  REI and most university outdoor programs offer inexpensive and fun courses, usually taught by young, fit, and attractive people wearing tight shorts and harnesses, if you are looking for that sort of thing.  Course titles may include the words: rappelling, abseiling, tree climbing (true), mountaineering, or rescue training. 

That being said, the basic skills of rappelling, ascending, belaying, traversing, and hauling are not hard to learn, nor do they require much strength when done correctly.

Rock climbing (using ropes to protect oneself as one climbs on rock) involves exposing oneself to multiple and high falls above the point of protection (think pendulum), and thus requires the use of dynamic ropes that stretch.  My personal belief is that TEOTWAWKI self-rescue (and family rescue) should not expose me or my loved-ones to multiple and high falls above the point of protection, and thus is best accomplished with static rope that has little stretch.  Because TEOTWAWKI or self-rescue is not likely to be a repeated event in my lifetime, and because we must carry our self-rescue gear in our GBH backpacks form many miles, and because when given a choice…

I always choose the lighter weight and/or more expensive option.  Lighter weight is fast.  Lighter weight uses much less energy. 

…I choose to accept the increased risk of using a smaller, lighter, 7mm static accessory cord, instead of a thicker, heavier, safer static assault rope or canyoneering rope. It is important to make sure that all of one’s gear and techniques are safely matched to one’s choice of rope.  As an example, the Ropeman Gold is not certified for use on 7mm accessory cord.  However, after some personal testing and deliberation, I have made the personnel choice to accept the risk.  Your own choices may certainly be different.

Government workers of the Army persuasion love to tie Swiss seats instead of using a harness.  It is a good skill to have, but given the choice, I much prefer a modern alpine harness, as it is faster, more comfortable, and safer, and doesn’t weigh much more that the cord for the Swiss seat.  High_Speed_Low_Drag_Operators like to imagine themselves rappelling off skyscrapers or being extricated by helicopter using their riggers belts instead of a harness. 

The problem is that they have likely never experienced the real physical pain of actually rappelling in a riggers belt or a swami belt as I have.  I much prefer a Black Diamond Couloir harness or similiar.

There are many ways to go up a rope, and probably even a few reasons to actually do so.  Who can forget the scene in For Your Eyes Only when James Bond uses his boot laces to make a couple prusik loops to ascend a rope

Apart from my shoe laces, I do like to have a Ropeman Gold, 1 or 2 sewn prusik loops, and my ATC, not just to ascend, but for hauling and traversing as well.  Petzl Tiblocs are great, but don’t work well for me on the smaller diameter accessory cord.  Other ascenders usually take up too much space and are too heavy for my GBH bag.

Remember this…

These are mostly things one would want to get squared away while one has time for consideration, before one’s life, or another’s life, depends on it.

So, that seems to me like a good start for this equipment list review.  I hope we will have some lively discussions in the comments section.  If you do want to put yourself and your equipment to the test, let me remind readers of the Tiger Valley Bug Out Drill that is coming up again this fall.  It is a great reason to get your mind, body, and equipment in order BEFORE your life depends on it.

T.I.G.E.R. Valley Bug Out Drill

 

 

It’s here again, the 2014 Bug Out Drill, the challenge unlike any other.
You’re driving home from work and an EMP strikes, the Russians have
detonated several nukes over the United States. The pulse has destroyed
all electronics and chaos has ensued. No signal lights, bank alarms,
stores are being robbed for anything of value. You move to your trunk
and get you Bug Out bag and start heading home, the best way you know.
This means you must trek over wooded and public roads, hiding from
possible thugs that might want to strip you of anything of value.
Expect 17 or 18 miles of cross country movement, lots of shooting
situations and test of your thinking ability and preparedness. You must
get home as quickly as possible, good luck.

 

 

http://ift.tt/1mHmQbL

 

Peace and love!

h_h

via http://ift.tt/1XeoJzM hedgeless_horseman

Stocks, Cable Tumble After Shocking Brexit Poll

Following a shocking report from The Indepdent indicating a 55% Brexit to 45% Bremain poll, cable and US equities are tumbling to fresh lows as it appears – as Soros warned – Brexit fears are under-priced…

 

 

As The Independent reports,

The campaign to take Britain out of the EU has opened up a remarkable 10-point lead over the Remain camp, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.

 

The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points).

 

These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned.

And what the banks believe is at stake in a Brexit vote scenario…

  • BBVA: GBP/USD to drop to 1.20; EUR/GBP moves to 0.85-0.90
  • BMO: GBP/USD moves to 1.33 and EUR/GBP moves to 0.83
  • BOFAML: GBP/USD toward mid-1.20 area
  • CITIGROUP: GBP/USD down 5% on the day, as much as 12% over following month
  • CREDIT AGRICOLE: GBP/USD to drop to 1.30 or lower; EUR/GBP to trade close to 0.85 or higher
  • DEUTSCHE BANK: GBP -10% on TWI basis; GBP/USD to 1.15 by year-end; EUR/GBP to 0.90
  • GOLDMAN SACHS: GBP -10% on TWI basis; GBP/USD could move to ~1.15-1.30; EUR/GBP to ~0.90-0.95; EUR/USD to fall ~4%
  • HSBC: GBP/USD to fall ~5-10%
  • INTESA SANPAOLO: GBP/USD to 1.35-1.40; EUR/GBP to 0.80-0.85
  • JPMORGAN: GBP/USD to fall to 1.32; EUR/GBP 0.85
  • MORGAN STANLEY: GBP/USD to 1.30 by yr-end; EUR/USD could fall to 1.00
  • NOMURA: GBP to fall ~10-15% on TWI basis
  • NORDEA: EUR/GBP above 0.85 (+7%); EUR/USD below 1.10
  • RABOBANK: GBP/USD at 1.26 in 1m; EUR/GBP at 0.86 in 1m
  • RBC: GBP/USD to 1.15 by end of June
  • SOCIETE GENERALE: GBP/USD to move through 1.35-1.30
  • UBS: EUR/GBP may go to parity
  • UNICREDIT: More than 10% drop vs USD on multi-week basis
  • WELLS FARGO: GBP trade weighted value may decline as much as 8%-9% in near-term

via http://ift.tt/28qqs98 Tyler Durden

UN Admits Extortion Behind Removal Of Saudi Arabia From Child-Killer Blacklist

Submitted by Claire Bernish via TheAntiMedia.org,

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon admitted Thursday Saudi Arabia had been removed from a blacklist for maiming and killing children as a result of unnamed sources’ threats to defund United Nations programs. In plain language, an unknown entity used extortion to force the U.N. to reverse an important move toward ensuring the safety of children.

According to an as-yet unsubstantiated report from Foreign Policy, that threat came directly from the Saudi government — though immediately after the report blacklisting the Saudi-led coalition went public, the kingdom vociferously denounced its placement, and was removed within 72 hours — perhaps lending an air of credibility to the allegation.

Ban came under sharp criticism for the abrupt backtracking; but on Thursday, his reasoning for the move became all-too apparent.

“The report describes horrors no child should have to face,” Ban told a press conference, as the Intercept reported.

 

"At the same time, I also had to consider the very real prospect that millions of other children would suffer grievously if, as was suggested to me, countries would defund many UN programs. Children already at risk in Palestine, South Sudan, Syria, Yemen and so many other places would fall further into despair.”

As the Intercept pointed out, Saudi Arabia donates hundreds of millions of dollars a year to U.N. food in Syria and Iraq.” According to a report on humanitarian assistance, the kingdom is one of the top ten largest donors in the world — providing $755 million in aid in 2014, alone.

“It is unacceptable for member states to exert undue pressure,” Ban lamented. “Scrutiny is a natural and necessary part of the work of the United Nations,” he continued, calling the dilemma “one of the most painful and difficult decisions I have had to make.”

In a seemingly tacit admission, the Saudi Ambassador to the U.N., Abdullah al-Mouallimi, held a follow-up press conference afterwards, the Intercept reported, stating, “We didn’t use threats, but such a listing will obviously have an impact on our relations with the U.N.”

He added, “It is not in our style, it is not in our genes, it is not in our culture to use threats and intimidation.”

Despite that assertion, the Saudi government has employed exactly that tactic already this yearthreatening to withdraw all investments in the United States should a proposed bill pass allowing families of victims of the September 11, 2001, attacks to pursue litigation against the nation.

No indications for what – if anything – will result from the secretary general’s acknowledgement that extortion played a key factor in the highly contentious removal of the Saudi-led, U.S.-backed coalition from the blacklist.

Considering the enormity of the announcement and the heft of the financial weapon wielded, that question is imperative going forward.

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Does Bilderberg Really Run The World? One Chart To Help You Decide

With the Bilderberg 2016 meeting now humming along at the Taschenbergpalais hotel in Dresden, deep behind closed doors and protected by heavily-armed guards, many have wondered: just how hyperbolic are allegations that the Bilderbergs run the world.

To help readers decide, here is a chart laying out the linkages and various connections – financial, political, statutory and otherwise – between the handful of people who comprise the Bilderberg core and the rest of the world.

via http://ift.tt/1Yi8dyi Tyler Durden

Oil Gives Up Post-Payrolls Gains As Rig Count Rises For 2nd Straight Week

Following last week’sunexpected rise in US oil rigs – and the biggest increase in US Crude production since the first week of January – the lagged price of oil suggested that rig counts would continue to rise this week, and it did – up 3 to 328. Oil prices had dropped from over $51.50 to almost $49 – erasing the post-payrolls gains- ahead of the rig count data and were relatively unimpressed by the print.

 

Production rose last week for the first time in 18 weeks and by the most since Jan 1st:

 

As rig counts increased by the most since December and for the 2nd week in a row… leaving oil unchanged since payrolls…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via http://ift.tt/1VQYXkd Tyler Durden

Gawker Files For Bankruptcy

Moments ago the financially challenged tabloid nemesis of Peter Thiel, Nick Denton’s Gawker Media, filed for bankrutpcy – an outcome predicted by many as inevitable – listing assets between $50 and $100 million, and liabilities between $100 and $500 million.

No matter on which side of the Thiel-Denton debate one sides, we doubt many tears will be shed as yet another chapter in “new media” comes to a close.

The WSJ adds that the company will be put for sale in bankruptcy auction, which will begin with an opening bid of $100 million from the digital media company and publisher Ziff Davis LLC, according to a person familiar with the matter. The sale was triggered after the judge overseeing the invasion-of-privacy case brought by Hulk Hogan—whose real name is Terry Bollea—declined to issue a stay pending Gawker’s appeal. That required the company to put up a $50 million bond.

Why is the company filing now? Simple: to make Hulk Hogan’s aka Terry Bollea’s $130 million claim part of the prepetition, unsecured liabiltiies.

 

“Whatcha gonna do when Chapter 11 runs wild on you”

 

Proceeds from a sale will go into a fund to finance further litigation costs and cover whatever damages may ultimately be leveled following the appeals process, which could take years to resolve. Gawker has said that it expects to ultimately prevail.

Whatever money is left at the end of the legal process will go to Nick Denton, Gawker’s founder who owns most of the company, and other shareholders. Earlier this year, Columbus Nova Technology Partners took an undisclosed minority stake in the media company as it shored up its books for the trial.

Full filing below:

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New Graduates Should Choose Tech Careers Over Wall Street (Video)

By EconMatters


Financial Markets have seen their Zenith, whereas the Technology Sector is just getting started in my opinion. Why do you think the Financial Industry is trying to rebrand themselves as Technology Firms?

Go to work where future investment capital is going to flow, business development in the financial industry is beyond mature, it has already seen its glory days. The decision from a Decision Making Tree Process isn`t even close, sure an individual might love Finance, but from an expected value and game play optimal standpoint, choosing a career in the Financial Sector versus the Technology Sector is just plain stupid!

You literally are the proverbial Pink Salmon swimming upstream to your miserable death as many management jobs in Finance are still yet to be downsized as automation, regulation and new technology makes many existing business units within finance obsolete at best.

Wall Street is going to increasingly be defined as more top down “Financial Winners” whereas the Technology Sector is going to offer more “Broad Based and Diverse Financial Winners” for employees.

In summation you can be quite average in the Tech Sector and have a rewarding career path, however in the financial sector the trend has been on a glide path for the over-achievers and exceptional to experience a rewarding career path, and steepening by the year. This didn`t used to be the case for Wall Street careers.

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

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Why Nothing Progresses (Except Dissatisfaction): Institutionalized Powerlessness

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The institution offers facsimiles of recognition, but the individual remains powerless and interchangeable.

Most people working within dysfunctional institutions do their best to keep the institution operating, and they naturally resent their institution being labeled dysfunctional, as it calls into question the value of their work. Their role in the institution is the wellspring of their identity and self-worth, and attacks on the institution are easily personalized into attacks on their self-worth.

This is understandable, as the need to affirm the value of one’s work is core to being human.

Several factors work against the affirmation of an individual’s value in centralized institutions. While some institutions are better run than others, hierarchical institutions are ontologically in conflict with the human need for affirmation of one’s value, purpose and meaning.

While each individual seeks to be recognized as a valuable member of a productive community, the institution is designed to enforce obedience to the hierarchy and compliance with the many rules governing the institutional machinery.

To soften the enforcement of obedience, institutions offer various blandishments of recognition: employee of the month, etc. Hierarchical organizations that must compete for workers, such as technology firms, will actively court their employees with Friday parties and various bonding events to generate a sense of purpose and community.

But stripped of public-relations cheerleading, these ploys are deeply inauthentic. They aren’t designed to create a real community, but to simply soften the enforcement of obedience with superficial recognition of the human need for recognition and belonging. Their real purpose is to mask the employees’ powerlessness.

Why do individuals accept powerlessness? The institution offers them what is scarce: financial security and a position that offers an identity and sense of belonging.

But there is an intrinsic conflict between the institution’s need for obedience a nd the individual’s need for authentic community, purpose and identity.

Within small work groups, camaraderie between the employees nurtures authentic community. But this is not the result of the institution; rather, the bonding occurs despite the institution.

This conflict is deepened by the dysfunction that arises from the structure of all centralized hierarchies. In effect, institutions bribe individuals with the security of a wage and a position, but the individual can never be fulfilled by a bribe or a position that is intrinsically powerless.

Even those in positions of leadership are powerless to change the dysfunctions that arise from its structure. The ontology of hierarchical institutions is to restrict the power of any individual, as individual initiative poses a threat to the institution’s core dynamic, which is the commodification of all human labor within it.

People must be interchangeable within the institution for the hierarchy and rules to function. Every teacher can be replaced with another teacher, every administrator can be replaced with another administrator, and so on.

This ontological conflict between the individual and the institution is complex. The institution offers various facsimiles of recognition, but the individual remains powerless and interchangeable. The institution claims to be improving, but it remains dysfunctional and incapable of reforming itself.

The impossibility of meeting individuals’ needs for autonomy manifest in a number of ways; here are five examples.

The first is the individual’s powerlessness to change anything of consequence within the institution. Everyone knows it is dysfunctional, but even those in positions of nominal power are unable to effect any real change.

 

The second is the difficulty of feeling positive about one’s role in an institution that has clearly lost its way and squanders talent and capital as its default setting.

 

The third is the internal costs of complying with perverse incentives that strip away integrity, idealism and faith in the value of the institution’s output.

 

The fourth is the way in which rising costs and burdensome rules of compliance narrow the room to maneuver within the institution. There is little room for innovation or meaningful reform because the budget is devoted to maintaining the status quo, and compliance soaks up time, talent and capital.

 

The fifth is keeping up with the ever-shifting sands of political compliance, as metrics of productivity change with each administration. What was adequate before may no longer be good enough.

The institution is designed to enforce compliance of its employees as a means to fulfill its core purpose. But there are few effective mechanisms for transformation within centralized institutions; each additional rule of compliance is added to a pile that is rarely reduced. As the costs of compliance and legacy structures increase, innovation is crowded out.

Even worse, innovation inevitably threatens someone’s share of the budget and power pie, so any innovation immediately arouses powerful enemies within the institution.

As a result, the institution becomes increasingly sclerotic and self-protective, and the narrowing room to maneuver frustrates the most idealistic and talented, who either quit or are forced out as threats.

Those who choose to remain resign themselves to cynical conformity or they simply stop caring. Neither is conducive to valuing one’s work.

In other words, institutions self-select for those most adept at maintaining the illusions of productivity, empowerment, etc., while maintaining the structure that guarantees dysfunction and artifice.

I call this conflict between centralized, hierarchical institutions and human needs the crisis of the individual because the institution is unaffected by its failure to meet the human need for affirmation, autonomy and community; the only crisis that afflicts the institution is the loss of its funding.

The crisis of the individual is not limited to institutions. Indeed, it can even more acute outside institutions. Affirming one’s value and identity are difficult in an institutional setting, but they become nearly impossible for those who have no paid position in the workforce.

Like institutional dysfunction, the crisis of the individual is as unrecognized as the air we breathe. It is assumed to be not just the way the world works, but the only way it could possibly work.

But these pathologies are not gravity; they result from a specific arrangement of markets, central states/banks and the neoliberal imperative that maximizing private gain is the highest good.

This essay was drawn from my new book Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform.
 

via http://ift.tt/1rgKNvY Tyler Durden