Too Far, Too Fast? Strategists Expect European Stocks To Tumble By Year-End

Equity strategists are cooling on the prospects for further gains in European stocks just as investors poured a record amount of money into the region’s equity funds…

After a French election victory for centrist Emmanuel Macron and analysts suggesting that optimism over better profits is largely priced in, forecasters now see fewer triggers for the rally to continue in 2017.

Equity strategists, “having been torched for their prior optimism in the past, might be cautious in continuing to call Europe up after a very good run,” saidMichael Ingram, a market strategist at BGC Partners in London.

 

“It’s difficult to identify any near-term catalysts for continued outperformance as most of the political tripwires appear to have been negotiated, easy monetary policy is priced in and the European earnings season is essentially done.”

As Bloomberg reports, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index of the biggest euro-area stocks will finish the year at 3,498, 3.8 percent lower than Friday’s close, according to the average in asurvey of 15 banks compiled by Bloomberg. For the Stoxx 600, nine banks expect the gauge to end the year 2.4 percent lower than Friday’s level, a mean of their predictions shows.

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Here’s Why You’ll Pay Higher Gas Prices Whatever The Market

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

The average gasoline tax in the U.S. is 49.5 cents per gallon, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute. That’s not too bad as far as averages go, but it has been climbing over the last five years and it will continue rising as states lose hope that the federal government will chip in for infrastructure construction and maintenance, and transportation.

Washington has been wary of raising the federal fuel tax. So wary, in fact, that the last time it adjusted the rate was more than two decades ago. Meanwhile, international oil prices have been jumping up and down, cars have become much more fuel efficient, and inflation has been biting into state income from gas taxes. In addition, there is a whole new challenge in the shape of electric vehicles that in the future will increasingly undermine fuel sales income for states.

Left with no options, 22 states have raised their fuel tax since 2012 and more will likely resort to the unpopular measure in the coming years. Since January 2017, Governing magazine notes, three states have passed laws to increase the gas excise tax: California, Tennessee, and Indiana. In California, the total tax, state plus federal, is now 57.20 cents per gallon. In Tennessee, the figure is 39.80 cents. In Indiana, the overall tax consumers pay on a gallon of gas is 51.24 cents.

According to one research organization, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, the number of states that have already introduced higher gas taxes is unusual, and what’s more, this number will continue to rise, with another seven states likely to pass higher gas tax laws before the end of the year: Alaska, Louisiana, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma, and West Virginia. Why? Because, although taxpayers can hardly be too happy about it, business groups are backing the higher taxes, ITEP analyst Carl Davies.

It’s a simple truth, though not a widely liked one, that states—and national governments—need income from taxes to produce goods and services for the people who pay the taxes. While it’s true that in the last decade there have been good reasons to keep prices at the pump steadily taxed, now that demand for road infrastructure and transport services is growing, states are finding themselves short of the money needed to respond to this demand.

The Great Recession saw prices shoot up to above US$3 per gallon, and by 2014 they’d gone above US$3.50 per gallon. That would have been a very bad time to even consider raising the tax. Yet now prices are at historic lows thanks to shale and to a global glut. In fact, prices are so low that on some part of the States, rivalry between two or more gas stations has led to prices as low as US$0.95 and even US$0.78 per gallon. True, these extremes were touched for a few hours but they are indicative of price developments prompted by global fundamental trends.

So, drivers across the states that have not yet hiked their gas tax can reasonably expect that, in the not too distant future, they will have to pay more for gas, regardless of which way global prices go. That’s the bad news. The good news is that these global prices are unlikely to go much higher than they are now, as long as shale producers continue ramping up their output and lowering production prices. Unless, of course, it turns out that the shale boom is actually a bubble as some observers argue.

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Buying Panic? S&P Tops 2,400 Despite Higher VIX

Nothing says buying panic like a “constitutional crisis” in America, crashing US ‘soft’ economic data, the world’s largest cyberattack ever, a slowing Chinese economy, and a higher VIX…

S&P 500 tops 2400 once again…

 

The S&P has gone nowhere since March 1st…

 

Sometimes you have to laugh.

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New Variant Of ‘Ransomware’ Begins To Spread: “We’ve Never Seen Anything Like This”

Governments and companies around the world began to gain the upper hand against the first wave of the unrivaled global cyberattack this morning.

More than 200,000 computers in at least 150 countries have so far been infected, according to Europol, the European Union’s law enforcement agency. The U.K.’s National Cyber Security Centre said new cases of so-called ransomware are possible “at a significant scale.”

 

"For now, it does not look like the number of infected computers is increasing," said a Europol spokesman. "We will get a decryption tool eventually, but for the moment, it’s still a live threat and we’re still in disaster recovery mode."

The initial attack was stifled when a security researcher disabled a key mechanism used by the worm to spread, but experts warned the hackers were likely to mount a second attack because so many users of personal computers with Microsoft operating systems couldn’t or didn’t download a security patch released in March that Microsoft had labeled “critical.”

“I will confess that I was unaware registering the domain would stop the malware until after I registered it, so initially it was accidental,” wrote the researcher, who uses the Twitter name @MalwareTechBlog.

 

“So long as the domain isn’t revoked, this particular strain will no longer cause harm, but patch your systems ASAP as they will try again.”

But the world is still digging out…

Europol executive director Rob Wainwright told Britain's ITV television on Sunday that the attack had been "unprecedented". "We've never seen anything like this," he said.

 

In China, "hundreds of thousands" of computers were affected, including petrol stations, cash machines and universities, according to Qihoo 360, one of China's largest providers of antivirus software. The malware affected computers at “several” unspecified Chinese government departments, the country’s Cyberspace Administration said on its WeChat blog Monday. Since that initial attack, agencies and companies from the police to banks and communications firms have put preventive measures in place, while Qihoo 360 Technology Co., Tencent Holdings Ltd. and other cybersecurity firms have begun making protection tools available, the internet overseer said.

 

French carmaker Renault said its Douai plant, one of its biggest sites in France employing 5,500 people, would be shut on Monday as systems were upgraded.

 

At Germany’s national Deutsche Bahn railroad, workers were laboring under "high pressure" Monday to repair remaining glitches with train stations’ electronic departure boards, a spokesman said.

 

In Japan, Hitachi Ltd. said that some of its computers had been affected.

 

In South Korea, CJ CGV Co., the country’s largest cinema chain, said advertising servers and displays at film theaters were hit by ransomware. Movie servers weren’t affected and are running as normal, it said in a text message Monday.

 

Indonesia’s government reported two hospitals in Jakarta were affected.

 

About 97 percent of U.K. facilities and doctors disabled by the attack were back to normal operation, Home Secretary Amber Rudd said Saturday after a government meeting. At the height of the attack Friday and early Saturday, 48 organizations in the NHS were affected, and hospitals in London, North West England and Central England urged people with non-emergency conditions to stay away as technicians tried to stop the spread of the malicious software.

As Microsoft's president and chief legal officer, Brad Smith, said in a blog post Sunday:

"An equivalent scenario with conventional weapons would be the US military having some of its Tomahawk missiles stolen," Smith wrote.

 

"The governments of the world should treat this attack as a wake up call."

And waking up they seem to be…(as Axios notes)

President Trump's homeland security adviser, Tom Bossert, said that Friday's global cyberattack is something that "for right now, we've got under control" in the U.S., reports AP:

 

"Bossert tells ABC's 'Good Morning America' that the malware is an "extremely serious threat" that could inspire copycat attacks. But Microsoft's security patch released in March should protect U.S. networks for those who install it."

 

"Micrsoft's top lawyer has criticized U.S. intelligence for 'stockpiling' software code that can aid hackers. Cybersecurity experts say the unknown hackers behind the latest attacks used a vulnerability exposed in U.S. government documents leaked online."

 

"Bossert said 'criminals' are responsible, not the U.S. government. Bossert says the U.S. hasn't ruled out involvement by a foreign government, but that the recent ransom demands suggest a criminal network."

However, new variants of the rapidly replicating malware were discovered Sunday. One did not include the so-called kill switch that allowed researchers to interrupt the malware's spread Friday by diverting it to a dead end on the internet.

As Bloomberg reports that Matt Suiche, founder of United Arab Emirates-based cyber security firm Comae Technologies warns a new version of the ransomware may have also been spreading over the weekend.

About 50% of machines that would have spread the infection by the second variation of the malware have Russian I.P. addresses, according to Suiche.

Over 40,000 machines appear to have been infected by the second variation of the malware already.

Ryan Kalember, senior vice president at Proofpoint Inc., which helped stop its spread, said the version without a kill switch could spread. It was benign because it contained a flaw that prevented it from taking over computers and demanding ransom to unlock files but other more malicious ones will likely pop up.

"We haven't fully dodged this bullet at all until we're patched against the vulnerability itself," Kalember said.

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Macron Appoints Centre-Right Mayor Edouard Philippe As Prime Minister

One day after Emmanuel Macron was inaugurated as France‘s youngest ever president, he announced the appointment of a centre-right Republican Edouard Philippe, the 46-year-old mayor of the port city of Le Havre, as France’s new prime minister tasked with implementing Macron’s economic reforms and to galvanize public support as France’s centrist president seeks to build a majority in parliament for his year-old party.

According to Bloomberg, which cited to French press reports, Philippe is an aficionado of Bruce Springsteen, his favorite actor is Sean Connery, and he’s a fan of the “Godfather” movies. Since 2010, Philippe has been mayor of Le Havre, France’s second-largest port, which was a longtime communist stronghold before drifting to the center-right as its economy diversified. Like Macron, he’s a graduate of France’s elite ENA, the National School of Administration.

Philippe is a Republican party MP close to Alain Juppe, the former prime minister who lost the Republican party’s presidential nomination to François Fillon in primary elections last year. By picking Philippe, Macron, who was a former minister in Socialist Francois Hollande’s government, is looking to broaden his appeal ahead of the legislative elections in June which many have predicted would be an even greater hurdle for the youngest ever French president than defeating Marine Le Pen.

Macron needs a majority or at least enough seats in parliament to govern or form a coalition. Without that, he could find himself a figurehead from the get-go, incapable of putting into action his campaign promises of economic modernization. Having already split the Socialist Party with his run for the presidency, Macron’s act of luring one of the leading young lights of the centrist wing of the Republicans now threatens to splinter that party as well.

Whether Philippe’s government can last beyond a few months depends on whether Macron’s young political movement can win a majority in the June 11 and 18 parliamentary elections or even take enough seats to lead a coalition. If a rival political formation takes command of parliament, it can vote out the government and impose a new one.

As for Philippe, he has alternated between being an elected official, adviser to various ministers, working as a lawyer, and as the head of public affairs for state-controlled energy company Areva.  Despite Fillon’s poor showing, the Republicans are still hoping to win a significant bloc in the National Assembly, the lower house, after five years of unpopular Socialist presidency, the FT adds. They are counting on a network of local elected officials and the political inexperience of Mr Macron’s party, La Republique en Marche.

Philippe’s appointment may scupper those plans by unsettling the more moderate Republicans. Like Mr Macron, he is liberal on social issues and pro-business on the economy.

Philippe was briefly a member of the Socialist party in his twenties. A graduate of ENA, the elite university that grooms high civil servants, he worked as an adviser to Mr Juppe when the mayor of Bordeaux became a minister during Mr Sarkozy’s presidency. He wrote a weekly column in left wing daily newspaper Liberation during the presidential campaign.

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Buckle Up, They Just “Pulled the Pin” on the Market Rig

The market rig of the last two weeks has finally ended.

The Russell 2000 has broken down. This index leads the S&P 500: note how the blue line soared before the black line followed suit back in December 2016. If the Russell 2000 is breaking down now, it’s only a matter of time before the S&P 500 follows suit.

Worse for the economy bulls, the Dow Jones Transportation Index is also breaking down. This is the most economically sensitive index. And it’s telling us that those investors who believe the economy is “roaring” are about to get destroyed.

Buckle up, it’s a long ways down.

We offer a FREE investment report outlining when the bubble will burst as well as what investments will pay out massive returns to investors when this happens. It's called The Biggest Bubble of All Time (and three investment strategies to profit from it).

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As I write this a mere 35 are left.

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Best Regards

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Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

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Globalization & The Rural-Urban Divide

Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The Neoliberal Corporate-State Order had all the power, and rigged the game to its own advantage.

Many pundits have commented on the remarkable asymmetry of counties won by the Democratic Party (blue counties) and in 2016 and those won by Republican Party (red counties): the Democrats won big in heavily urban counties and the Republicans won most rural counties.

This visible division prompted numerous article such as this: Cities vs. Trump: Red state, blue state? The urban-rural divide is more significant. "Like most red-state cities, Idaho’s capital is remarkably short on conservatives. Last November, while Hillary Clinton mustered only 27.5 percent of the statewide vote, she hit north of 75 percent in some of Boise’s urban precincts. Politically, the city might as well be on a different planet from towns that lie a couple of exits away."

The article follows a simple and superficially appealing narrative: the reason for the divide is cultural: cities are liberal, the countryside is conservative.

But there must be more to the divide than values and political culture; difficult social issues like addiction that once were defined as urban problems are now rural problems: American Epidemic: The Nation’s Struggle With Opioid Addiction (34:26 min)

Correspondent Bart D. (Australia) recently submitted an insightful description of the decimation of rural economies. Though he is describing rural Australia, anecdotally I see evidence for the same trends in the U.S., Japan and Europe.

I worry that the collective memory required to nurture self-employment and self-reliance have already been lost to much of the populace.

The thing that disturbs me most about the fate of the rural region I grew up in is the huge loss of economic diversity. A list of businesses/function my childhood town used to have but now does not:

–Bank
–Post office
–Council office
–Roadworks/council depot/workshops
–Mechanics workshop
–2 small convenience stores
–A small ‘all goods’ shop (surviving as a tea/coffee and cake eatery)
–There is a tiny junior school that has been under threat of closure (lack of pupils) for the past few years.

These are the basic building blocks of an economic community. Sporting clubs have perished as have social clubs (and even the tavern is only just staying alive) as the people, and their families, who once worked these family businesses disappear into the state capital with it’s bubble priced housing and much reduced sense of community cohesion. It’s not just my home town either… there are 3 others near by that have gone the same way.

The only economic activity left is big Agri-Biz. The number of family farms has reduced by about half in the last 30 years; so the scale of operation is huge and the debt matches it. Little of the farmers' money goes into the 'local' or even 'regional' economy. It goes to the multinationals: Bank Corp, Chemical Corp, Fertilizer Corp, Fuel Corp, Machine Corp … the economic centres for which are not even in our Nation let alone state or region.

Also worth noting that the cascade of losses was very rapid. Once we lost our council depot, the town basically withered up economically in just a few years.

We, the people, are being steadily herded into mega-cities. On the surface it seems like a voluntary migration to pursue economic opportunity… but reality is it’s forced.

Those of us that want to return to these communities to raise the next generation of kids… can’t. There are no viable economic activities to pursue… even with the alleged benefits of internet based opportunity which should make it possible to do most things from most places.

These towns all have beautiful, huge, old stone houses, with huge gardens at prices that are actually affordable to an ‘average’ wage earner… if they could find a way to make said wage living there. Instead we have to cram ourselves into bubble priced houses made of paper and fibro-cement sheeting, crammed onto tiny blocks, where you can hear your neighbours fart from opposite ends of the buildings.

We fool ourselves into believing this style of living is a choice … that we are 'going where the opportunities are' … but we lie to ourselves. It’s exciting for a while as a teenager, then when proper adult perspective kicks in you find yourself trapped in suburban bleakness and servitude."

We can see the outlines of a large-scale dynamic that has hollowed out the incomes and local economies of rural regions around the world: globalization, i.e. the borderless flow of capital, credit, goods and services, a flow dominated by large corporations that work hand in glove with international institutions and governments.

This article gets close to the reality. (Note that "liberal order" doesn't refer to political liberalism vs. conservatism, it refers to the "neoliberal order" that promotes "free trade", borderless flows of capital, international institutions such as the World Bank, etc.) The Liberal Order Is Rigged: Fix It Now or Watch It Wither: We did not pay enough attention as capitalism hijacked globalization. Economic elites designed international institutions to serve their own interests and to create firmer links between themselves and governments. Ordinary people were left out. The time has come to acknowledge this reality and push for policies that can save the liberal order before it is too late.

The local economies in rural counties are especially vulnerable to "lower prices always" supply chains that bring in agricultural, mining and forestry products from far away at prices below domestic production costs.

When these industries are gutted by globalization's low costs, there isn't much of a service sector left to support employment. Rather, the service jobs in rural areas depend on the ag/ mining/ forestry jobs. When those jobs vanish, the service jobs evaporate as well.

People have to move to find jobs, and that further pressures the remaining businesses.

There is a much deeper pool of capital and service employment in cities, and so it follows that cities are where the jobs are.

Why is this so? Production and production employment are tradable (following Michael Spence's work), meaning they can be traded on the global marketplace as interchangeable goods: a computer chip made in China and one made in Japan are interchangeable (quality may vary of course, but as long as the chips perform the same function, they're interchangeable.)

Service sector employment is largely untradable, as getting a haircut (for example) isn't something you can have done overseas for less money. Healthcare, education, legal services, restaurants, government–all these job-rich sectors are untradable.

The net result is globalization has an outsized impact on rural production employment and very little impact on urban untradable employment.

Although I don't have the statistics on hand, I suspect 90% of urban employment is untradable services rather than tradable production. If employment in government, education, healthcare, legal/professional services, tourism, etc. is abundant, all those untradable jobs support a large secondary service sector of other untradable services: cafes, brewpubs, night clubs, etc.

But as the Foreign Affairs article states, this Neoliberal Order is rigged against small businesses, local production, and localized economies. Globalization sweeps all of these away as "uncompetitive."

But the playing field was never level: the Neoliberal Corporate-State Order had all the power, and rigged the game to its own advantage.

No wonder the rural regions are rebelling–not against the cities, but against the Neoliberal Global Order that has stripped the economic diversity from rural economies.

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‘Soft’ Dats Slumps – Empire Fed Plunges Into Contraction As New Orders Collapse

Having surged to its highest since Oct 2014 early in the year on the back of Trumptopian exuberance, Empire Fed’s manufacturing survey crashed back to -1.0 in May

(4 standard deviations below expectations).

 

This is the worst (and first) conntractionary print since October 2016 as New Orders crash from 7-year highs to 7-month lows.

 

Prices paid and reeceived both fell (deflationary threat from China), inventories shrank (bad for GDP), average workweek and number of employees dropped (not making America great again), and future capex expectations plunged to 7 month lows.

All in all – a perfect reflection of the death of animal spirits and why paying attention to the the spikes in these surveys – while ignoring ‘hard’ data – is a fool’s errand.

 

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Putin Jabs NSA For Letting The Ransomware “Genies Out Of The Bottle”

Following the worldwide “Wanna Cry” cyber attack that was launched last Friday and quickly spread to thousands of computers, Vladimir Putin took a jab at the NSA for authoring tools that “may harm their own authors and creators” should the “genies be let out of the bottle.”  Per The Hill:

“We are fully aware that the genies, in particular, those created by secret services, may harm their own authors and creators, should they be let out of the bottle.”

 

“Microsoft’s management has made it clear that the virus originated from US intelligence services.”

For those who haven’t followed the story closely, the outbreak of the virus, dubbed WannaCry, began last Friday. According to cybersecurity experts, and subsequently confirmed by Microsoft, the WannaCry virus is based on an NSA-developed tool that was leaked to the public by a group called Shadow Brokers. The virus, which is ravaging computer networks worldwide, encrypts user files and demands a ransom in cryptocurrency Bitcoin to release them.

Here is an animated map from the NYT showing how quickly the virus spread:

 

Microsoft, which has criticized the American spy agencies for their alleged role in creating the situation, released a patch for its no longer supported Windows XP operating system to prevent computers still running it from being infected. The tech company patched a vulnerability in its newer supported software last month after the leak was made public, but operating systems that were not updated are still vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Microsoft President and Chief Legal Officer Brad Smith, blasted “the stockpiling of vulnerabilities by governments” which then get leaked into the public domain as equivalent to the “U.S. military having some of its Tomahawk missiles stolen.”

“We have seen vulnerabilities stored by the CIA show up on WikiLeaks, and now this vulnerability stolen from the NSA has affected customers around the world,” Microsoft President and Chief Legal Officer Brad Smith wrote in a blog post this afternoon. “This attack provides yet another example of why the stockpiling of vulnerabilities by governments is such a problem.”

 

“Repeatedly, exploits in the hands of governments have leaked into the public domain and caused widespread damage” Smith wrote, adding that an “an equivalent scenario with conventional weapons would be the U.S. military having some of its Tomahawk missiles stolen. And this most recent attack represents a completely unintended but disconcerting link between the two most serious forms of cybersecurity threats in the world today – nation-state action and organized criminal action.”

And while the U.S. continues to implode over whether Hillary Clinton lost an election over “Russian hacking”, Putin gets to sit back an watch the show as the “U.S. hacking” tools, which are far more detrimental than an email phishing scheme which apparently duped John Podesta, are put on public display for all to see.

Putin

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Key Events In The Coming Quiet Week: US Industrial Production In Focus

It is a relatively quiet week for economic news in the and Eurozone with focus turning to UK data, Japan 1Q GDP, inflation in Canada & Australia’s employment report. Norway GDP should show continued improvement and the Riksbank proposal on a new policy target will also draw interest. In EM there are monetary policy meetings in Chile, Indonesia, Mexico and Poland.

The start to the week is even more quiet today with no significant data to highlight, while in the US the May empire manufacturing reading is due along with the NAHB housing market index for May.

On Tuesday, with little of note in Asia it’ll be straight to Europe where the final April CPI revisions are due in France along with the April CPI/RPI/PPI data docket in the UK. Euro area Q1 GDP and March trade data follows, while the May ZEW survey is also due in Germany. In the US tomorrow we’re due to receive April housing starts, building permits and industrial production data.

We’re kicking off Wednesday in Japan where the March industrial production print is due. In the UK we’ll get March and April employment data, while April CPI for the Euro area is also due.

There is no data of note in the US on Wednesday.

Thursday kicks off in Japan again with the Q1 preliminary GDP report, while in China we’re also due to get April property prices data. In France on Thursday we’ll get Q1 employment data while in the UK we’ll get April retail sales. In the US on Thursday the data includes initial jobless claims, Philly Fed business outlook for May and Conference Board’s leading index for April.

It’s a quiet end to the week on Friday. In Germany we get April PPI while in the afternoon session we get the flash consumer confidence reading for the Euro area in May. There is no data in the US on Friday.

Away from the data the Fed’s Bullard and Mester are scheduled to speak on Thursday, with Bullard also speaking on Friday. ECB President Draghi also speaks on Thursday along with Nowotny and Lautenschlaeger. Praet and Constancio speak on Friday. The NY Fed releases its Q1 US household debt and credit report on Wednesday. UK politicians excluding PM May take part in a televised election debate on Thursday

Visual summary of key events:

And here is Goldman with a focus only on the US, together with key expectations.

The key economic release this week is the industrial production report on Tuesday. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Monday, Month 15

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, May (consensus +7.3, last +5.2)
  • 04:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows, March (last +$19.3bn)
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, May (consensus +68, last +68): Consensus expects the NAHB homebuilders’ index to remain flat in May, after the index pulled back more than expected in the April report.

Tuesday, Month 16

  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, April (GS +5.0%, consensus +3.7%, last -6.8%); Building permits, April (consensus +0.2%, last +4.2%): We expect favorable single-family fundamentals and a post-winter-storm rebound to boost housing construction activity in April. Offsetting this, we expect a modest decline in multifamily starts, reflecting signs of potential oversupply in that segment. Taken together, we expect a 5.0% gain in housing starts, reversing most of the 6.8% drop in March.
  • 09:15 AM Industrial production, April (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%); Manufacturing production, April (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.4%); Capacity utilization, April (GS +76.7%, consensus +76.3%, last +76.1%): We estimate industrial production increased 0.9% in April, reflecting a sharp pickup in auto production and a further rise in mining output, partially offset by a drop in utilities output following unseasonably cold March weather. We estimate manufacturing production rose 0.7%, reflecting the expected improvement in auto output as well as broader cyclical improvement in other manufacturing categories.

Wednesday, Month 17

  • There are no major economic data releases.

Thursday, Month 18

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 13 (GS 240k, consensus 240k, last 236k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 6 (consensus 1,950k, last 1,918k): We estimate initial jobless claims rebounded 4k to 240k in the week ended May 13. Claims in New York state appeared particularly depressed in the prior week, and we expect a rebound in that state. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have trended down further in recent weeks, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue.
  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS +20.0, consensus +18.5, last +22.0): We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to drop 2pt to 20.0 in May. In the April report, the headline index declined by 10.8pt to +22.0 with most key components also dropping. While the level of the index remains somewhat elevated, industrial company results and commentary have been encouraging over the last month, with mounting evidence of accelerating growth in the industrial economy. Accordingly, we expect a small drop to levels still consistent with solid expansion in manufacturing activity.
  • 01:15 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester will give a speech at the Economic Club of Minnesota’s luncheon. Audience and media Q&A is expected.

Friday, Month 19

  • 09:15 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard will give a speech on the U.S. Economy and monetary policy at the Association for Corporate Growth St. Louis Chapter. Audience and media Q&A is expected.

And visually:

Source: BofA, DB, GS, Barclays

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