another site
As expected today’s ECB statements were a snoozer, and likely Mario Draghi’s official statement will be too – “more of the same.” However, the real fun and games will come as he combats questions on 1) the lack of effectiveness of QE so far (just wait, any day now it will work), and 2) helicopter money (“whatever it takes”). He better offer some hope for moar as EUR is surging into the meeting…
We’re gonna need a bigger jawbone…
Live Feed…
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Silver “Has So Much More to Give” – 5 Must See Charts
Silver has so much more to give according to Bloomberg in an interesting article replete with 5 must see silver charts.
From Bloomberg:
Silver’s bull run looks like it has legs.
The metal with the best return this year of any in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is poised for more gains, investors, traders and market data suggest.
“Silver has the best-looking chart among all the commodities,” said Andy Pfaff, who as chief investment officer for commodities at MitonOptimal Group in Cape Town increased his allocation to the metal over the past two weeks. “When silver moves, it really, really moves, and everyone wants to be on the right side of that trade.”
The metal is up more than 11 percent in the last two weeks after underperforming gold in the first quarter on concerns slow Chinese growth would curb demand in the biggest consumer of commodities. While both are precious metals, silver has more uses in manufacturing. Silver traded at $16.909 an ounce on Wednesday.
Following are charts that suggest the possibility of further gains.
The ratio of gold to silver prices fell to the lowest level since October on Wednesday after peaking in February at the highest since 2008. It will likely fall further, according to dealers such as brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin as reported by Bloomberg.
Read full Bloomberg article and see 5 charts here
Gold Prices (LBMA)
21 April: USD 1,257.65, EUR 1,113.21 and GBP 877.01 per ounce
20 April: USD 1,247.75, EUR 1,098.09 and GBP 867.45 per ounce
19 April: USD 1,241.70, EUR 1,095.18 and GBP 867.01 per ounce
18 April: USD 1,237.70, EUR 1,095.02 and GBP 872.45 per ounce
15 April: USD 1,229.75, EUR 1,092.16 and GBP 867.46 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
21 April: USD 17.32, EUR 15.31 and GBP 12.05 per ounce
20 April: USD 16.97, EUR 14.93 and GBP 11.81 per ounce
19 April: USD 16.62, EUR 14.67 and GBP 11.57 per ounce
18 April: USD 16.20, EUR 14.33 and GBP 11.41 per ounce
15 April: USD 16.17, EUR 14.33 and GBP 11.40 per ounce
Gold News and Commentary
Silver ends at highest level since May; gold barely budges (Marketwatch)
Gold steadies as dollar firms; silver hits 11-month high (Reuters)
Silver Climbs to Highest Since May After Entering Bull Market (Bloomberg)
Chinese Gold Mining Giant Targets Overseas Buys as Demand Gains (Bloomberg)
Trader: Gold is about to break out—here’s why (CNBC)
Silver Prices May Be Ready to Shine (US News)
Silver is finally catching up to gold (Business Insider)
Why Are The Chinese Stockpiling Silver? Big Price Move Coming? (Gold Seek)
War on Savings: The Panama Papers, Bail-Ins, and the Push to Go Cashless (Ellen Brown)
Why One Analyst Believes Gold Could Hit $3,000 (Gold Seek)
Read More Here
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Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,
For the past week or so, I’ve been warning readers that the supposedly “liberal” state of New York has some of the most repressive voting laws in the country. Before reading the rest of this post, I suggest refreshing your memory on just how undemocratic New York is by checking out the following:
Published April 13th: Hillary Clinton Will Win New York, Because New York is Running a Banana Republic Primary
Published yesterday: As Expected, New York’s Primary is Already a Pathetic Mess
As such, two things were obvious going into the New York primary: 1) Hillary Clinton would win. 2) There would be an enormous amount of voter suppression and fraud.
Well the results are in, and the state of the state in New York is very, very bad.
The Daily Beast reports:
Alba Guerrero was dumbfounded. She’d arrived at her polling place in Ozone Park, Queens only to be told that she had been registered as a Republican since 2004.
That was news to her. She remembers registering to vote for the first time as a Democrat so she could vote for Barack Obama in the general election in 2008. When she recently moved from Manhattan to Ozone Park, in Queens, she re-registered at the DMV, she says, and even checked online on March 9th to be sure she was registered at her new address.
But when she showed up to vote for Bernie Sanders at PS63 on Tuesday, she says she was told she couldn’t. New York is a closed primary, where only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic Primary—and voters had to be registered by last October. She was told—very politely, she wants to make clear—by poll workers to take it up with a judge. She was given a court order in nearby Forest Hills.
Guerrero drove to the Queens County Board of Elections and pled her case, but Judge Ira Margulis initially turned her away.
“The judge tells me, ‘No, that’s it—2004.’ He shows me, I’m registered as a Republican. He says there’s nothing we can do,” she said.
But on her way out she saw a Board of Elections worker holding something with her name on it. It was her 2004 voter registration, replete, she remembers, with her name, her social security number, her birthday—and someone else’s signature.
“I said, ‘Excuse me, that’s not my signature,’” she said. “It’s not my handwriting. It showed completely different signatures.”
Sure enough, the signatures are strikingly different. Next to a box checked “Republican,” her 2004 signature is written in clear, deliberate, legible cursive and includes her middle name. Her more recent signature is a loopy, illegible scrawl. She insists she’s never changed it in her life, and says she can produce old tax forms to prove it.
So Guerrero went back to to Judge Margulis and showed him the discrepancy.
“He allowed me to change for that day,“ she said.
Mayor Bill de Blasio, who tweeted at 11:50 a.m., “There’s nothing more punk rock than voting. #GetOutAndVote”, had to change his tune by the end of the day. WNYC reported this morning that 126,000 Brooklyn Democrats had been removed from the voting rolls since last fall.
What a fake liberal clown.
“It has been reported to us from voters and voting rights monitors that the voting lists in Brooklyn contain numerous errors, including the purging of entire buildings and blocks of voters from the voting lists,” he said in a statement released after 5 p.m. on Election Day. “I am calling on the Board of Election to reverse that purge and update the lists again using Central, not Brooklyn borough, Board of Election staff.”
A spokesperson for New York Attorney Eric Schneiderman told the New York Daily News that his office received “by far the largest volume of complaints we have received for an election since Attorney General Schneiderman took office in 2011.”
Some polling sites did not open on time, citing too few election workers. Others had faulty voting machines, or were delivered half the number of promised voting machines.
“I spent three hours this morning trying to vote,” he said. “I’m at a loss for words. I don’t understand that in the 21st century you have to stand in front of a judge to get to vote. It was laughable.”
Gershman was peeved by what happened to him, but he wonders what would’ve happened if he didn’t have a car, or the ability to miss a morning of work to fight for his ballot. And he’s also confounded by what happened to Guerrero’s voter registration form, which he shared on YouTube and calls “pretty clear fraud.”
Guerrero calls the whole incident “creepy.” She has “no idea” who might want to forge her signature on a voter registration form.
“It’s just disheartening. We’re supposed to be the number one country in the world, but things like this you’d imagine would happen in a second or third-world country,” she said. “What happened to me, basically, was fraud.”
Welcome to the real America, Alba Guerrero.
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Silver “Has So Much More to Give” – 5 Charts Show
Silver has so much more to give according to Bloomberg in an interesting article replete with 5 must see silver charts.
From Bloomberg:
Silver’s bull run looks like it has legs.
The metal with the best return this year of any in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is poised for more gains, investors, traders and market data suggest.
“Silver has the best-looking chart among all the commodities,” said Andy Pfaff, who as chief investment officer for commodities at MitonOptimal Group in Cape Town increased his allocation to the metal over the past two weeks. “When silver moves, it really, really moves, and everyone wants to be on the right side of that trade.”
The metal is up more than 11 percent in the last two weeks after underperforming gold in the first quarter on concerns slow Chinese growth would curb demand in the biggest consumer of commodities. While both are precious metals, silver has more uses in manufacturing. Silver traded at $16.909 an ounce on Wednesday.
Following are charts that suggest the possibility of further gains.
The ratio of gold to silver prices fell to the lowest level since October on Wednesday after peaking in February at the highest since 2008. It will likely fall further, according to dealers such as brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin as reported by Bloomberg.
Read full Bloomberg article and see 5 charts here
Gold Prices (LBMA)
21 April: USD 1,257.65, EUR 1,113.21 and GBP 877.01 per ounce
20 April: USD 1,247.75, EUR 1,098.09 and GBP 867.45 per ounce
19 April: USD 1,241.70, EUR 1,095.18 and GBP 867.01 per ounce
18 April: USD 1,237.70, EUR 1,095.02 and GBP 872.45 per ounce
15 April: USD 1,229.75, EUR 1,092.16 and GBP 867.46 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
21 April: USD 17.32, EUR 15.31 and GBP 12.05 per ounce
20 April: USD 16.97, EUR 14.93 and GBP 11.81 per ounce
19 April: USD 16.62, EUR 14.67 and GBP 11.57 per ounce
18 April: USD 16.20, EUR 14.33 and GBP 11.41 per ounce
15 April: USD 16.17, EUR 14.33 and GBP 11.40 per ounce
Gold News and Commentary
Silver ends at highest level since May; gold barely budges (Marketwatch)
Gold steadies as dollar firms; silver hits 11-month high (Reuters)
Silver Climbs to Highest Since May After Entering Bull Market (Bloomberg)
Chinese Gold Mining Giant Targets Overseas Buys as Demand Gains (Bloomberg)
Trader: Gold is about to break out—here’s why (CNBC)
Silver Prices May Be Ready to Shine (US News)
Silver is finally catching up to gold (Business Insider)
Why Are The Chinese Stockpiling Silver? Big Price Move Coming? (Gold Seek)
War on Savings: The Panama Papers, Bail-Ins, and the Push to Go Cashless (Ellen Brown)
Why One Analyst Believes Gold Could Hit $3,000 (Gold Seek)
Read More Here
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As was widely expected, moments ago the “sleepy” ECB announced that all its three key rates remain unchanged: “the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.” There was one notably addition: the ECB announced it has “started to expand our monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme to €80 billion” as was also expected considering the tremendous rip in European corporate bonds.
At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.
Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we have started to expand our monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme to €80 billion. The focus is now on the implementation of the additional non-standard measures decided on 10 March 2016. Further information on the implementation aspects of the corporate sector purchase programme will be released after the press conference on the ECB’s website.
The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.
For Draghi’s presser, check back in 45 minutes.
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Overnight Media Digest
WSJ
– Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, after notching a big win in New York, is planning to roll out significant changes in his campaign, including giving a policy speech on foreign affairs, using teleprompters and a speech writer, and doing more outreach to Washington Republican leaders. (http://on.wsj.com/1QoFUpJ)
– U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said he would put abolitionist Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill, bowing to public pressure after his initial proposal to put a woman on the $10 bill appeared to misfire. (http://on.wsj.com/1QoFRtX)
– European Union competition authorities unveiled a second set of charges against Google, this time over its Android operating system, contrasting with U.S. regulators who have so far found that Google’s conduct raises no antitrust concerns. (http://on.wsj.com/1QoFOhE)
– Wal Mart Stores Inc is bringing in the next generation of Walton family members to its board, nominating Steuart Walton, grandson of founder Sam Walton. (http://on.wsj.com/1QoFM9w)
FT
– A Deutsche Bank AG shareholder has requested a special audit of whether members of the bank’s supervisory board or management board breached obligations in dealing with a few of the bank’s legal entanglements. (http://bit.ly/1U6Sj8l)
– GP practices will be given an additional 2.4 billion pounds ($3.44 billion) a year to cope with older population and to decrease pressure on hospitals. Chief Executive of NHS England Simon Stevens is to announce the extra funding on Thursday. (http://bit.ly/1U6SikW)
– Worldpay Plc is launching a pay-as-you-go service for smaller businesses taking card payments, which is a part of the payment group’s plans to expand in the UK. (http://bit.ly/1U6Shxj)
– Conforama, a Steinhoff International Holdings subsidiary, acquired 19.5 percent of Darty Plc and sweetened its offer for the remaining shares to 138 pence per share. (http://bit.ly/1U6ShgT)
NYT
– Google Inc long stressed that Android, its popular mobile software, is open for anyone to use, including its rivals. But the company’s claims are now under threat after Europe’s antitrust authorities on Wednesday charged the company with unfairly using Android to promote its own services – like mobile search – over those of its rivals. (http://nyti.ms/1T0I5Sh)
– In a major victory for the Russian government, a Dutch court on Wednesday overturned an award of more than $50 billion to former shareholders of the defunct oil company Yukos that Moscow was ordered to pay in 2014. (http://nyti.ms/1QoNqRe)
– In the latest scandal to hit the automobile industry, Mitsubishi Motors Corp said on Wednesday that it had cheated on fuel-economy tests for an ultrasmall car it produces in Japan. The company acknowledged that its engineers had intentionally manipulated evaluations. (http://nyti.ms/1SuUccT)
– Credit Suisse Group AG has hired Henrik Aslaksen, a former top banker at Deutsche Bank AG, as the Swiss bank continues to reshape its investment banking business. (http://nyti.ms/1T0Hpw3)
– Barclays Plc announced on Wednesday that a veteran of its Barclaycard business would be the permanent head of its credit card and payment operations. Amer Sajed, who joined Barclays from Citigroup in 2006, becomes chief executive of the Barclaycard business immediately, the British bank said. (http://nyti.ms/20Zjjrr)
Canada
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
** The trickle of complaints about Netflix Inc’s renewed effort to stop Canadians from circumventing its geographic content restrictions has turned into a steady stream of outrage as the Californian company’s technological crackdown begins to bite more users globally. (http://bit.ly/1NCPCVD)
** Multilateral talks are ongoing between the British Columbia and Alberta governments centering on a deal that would see one help facilitate the construction of an oil pipeline to the West Coast in exchange for a long-term contract to buy electricity. (http://bit.ly/1NCQgCx)
** The Canadian government abandoned an appeal of a controversial court ruling that let the Catholic Church out of its responsibility to raise millions of dollars for aboriginal healing programs, court documents show. (http://bit.ly/1NCQrOb)
NATIONAL POST
** Health Canada is studying the possibility of forcing companies to make their cigarettes less addictive, a controversial anti-smoking strategy that no other country has implemented. (http://bit.ly/1NCQFF3)
** Some of the Canadian military’s top equipment programs already underway – including projects to buy maritime helicopters and Arctic patrol vessels – will have their funding delayed as the defense department tries to deal with the Liberal government’s first budget. (http://bit.ly/1NCRQnR)
Britain
The Times
* Millions of patients will be seen by pharmacists, therapists and medical assistants instead of GPs in an effort to save the NHS from collapse. Simon Stevens, head of NHS England, warns that the health service will fail without a 2.4 billion pounds rescue package for the “fraying” GP system. (http://bit.ly/1VGkfRB)
* The owners of offshore companies holding 170 billion pounds in British property are set to be unmasked in a crackdown on money laundering and tax evasion. David Cameron is expected to announce plans to lift the veil on anonymous shell companies that buy huge swathes of British real estate. http://bit.ly/1T0lVQ6)
The Guardian
* Sir Terry Matthews, the first Welsh billionaire, is backing a proposed management buyout of Tata Steel UK, boosting hopes of a rescue deal for the Port Talbot steelworks and thousands of employees. Matthews is helping to put together a consortium of public and private sector figures from south Wales who can support the buyout. (http://bit.ly/1QnpvBV)
* British Gas is to axe almost 700 jobs and close its West Midlands office in Oldbury, just two months after its residential supply arm reported a 31 percent increase in profits to over 570 million pounds. The 684 staff are employed by British Gas services in call centre and back room office work supporting the company’s engineers who attend call-outs and mend boilers. (http://bit.ly/1pgvEJX)
The Telegraph
* Google has been formally charged with monopoly abuse over an alleged effort to crush rivals to its mobile search service and Android smartphone operating system, in a major escalation of its battle with Brussels. (http://bit.ly/1XIkeL4)
* Greece could crash out of the eurozone as early as this summer if Britons vote to leave the European Union in the upcoming referendum, economists have predicted. The uncertainty following a “yes” vote to Britain leaving the EU would put unsustainable pressure on Greece’s cash-strapped economy at a time when it is also struggling to cope with an influx of migrants escaping turmoil in the Middle East and Africa, according to a report from the Economist Intelligence Unit. (http://bit.ly/20YPNC5)
Sky News
* A group of top city executives has slammed boardroom pay practices as “broken” and “not fit for purpose”, demanding an urgent overhaul to restore public confidence in British business. Sky News has learnt that a panel set up to explore ways of simplifying executive remuneration will publish on Thursday a series of proposals aimed at increasing transparency and directors’ accountability. (http://bit.ly/1STYVBJ)
* Japanese carmaker Mitsubishi Motors Corp has admitted manipulating fuel economy tests on some of its own brand and Nissan cars to make the results more favourable. (http://bit.ly/1WGor3i)
The Independent
* Barack Obama has been urged to use his visit to Saudi Arabia to rule out selling controversial cluster bombs to the kingdom amid mounting evidence they have been used against civilians in Yemen. (http://ind.pn/20YR6kF)
* Shareholders in the collapsed Yukos oil company established by jailed Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky have lost a key court battle in their demand for $50 billion compensation from the Russian government. (http://ind.pn/26fP6Z8)
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In a surprise move, earlier today Sweden’s Riksbank announced that it would expand the country’s QE program by another 45 billion kroner – consensus was for no increase – while keeping its rate at the already record negative -0.50%. “With continued expansionary monetary policy abroad, there is a risk that the krona will appreciate earlier and faster than in the forecast,” the Riksbank said.
Even more surprising was the currency reaction: instead of weakening the SEK, the currency strengthened and initially traded as much as 0.8 percent higher against the euro, but gains were pared to 0.3 percent as of 11:26 a.m. in Stockholm. The move was another indication of just how inverted cause and effect relationships have become in a world in which traders try to front and in this case back-run central bank announcements.
The extra purchases will add to an existing 200 billion-krona QE program targeting about one-third of Sweden’s nominal government bonds by the end of June. Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves has resorted to unprecedented stimulus as the bank has failed to reach its 2 percent inflation target for about half a decade. But policy makers are torn over how best to deploy their toolbox as the property market overheats.
This is what the Riksbank said:
The Riksbank’s monetary policy has contributed to stronger economic activity and rising inflation. But although inflation is rising, the upturn is fitful. At the same time, there is still uncertainty over global developments and monetary policy abroad is very expansionary. To safeguard the rising trend in inflation, monetary policy in Sweden needs to continue to be expansionary. The Executive Board has decided to purchase government bonds for a further SEK 45 billion during the second half of 2016. This will reduce the risk of the krona appreciating faster than in the forecast and of a break in the upturn in inflation. The purchases cover both nominal and real government bonds, corresponding to SEK 30 and SEK 15 billion, respectively. The repo rate is at the same time held unchanged at -0.50 per cent. There is still a high level of preparedness to make monetary policy even more expansionary if this is needed to safeguard the inflation target.
Apparently the market did not agree with the Riksbank’s assessment, and as a result of the surprising strengthening in the SEK, The krona remains the strongest performer, besides the yen, of the 10 currencies tracked in Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes over the past year.
As Bloomberg noted, “Sweden’s Riksbank just put its monetary policy cards on the table in the hope that the European Central Bank won’t blow its best intentions to smithereens.
Swedish policy makers delivered a little more stimulus and made a few predictions about the future. But ultimately, all they can do now is hope ECB President Mario Draghi doesn’t upend everything for those outside the euro zone struggling to protect their currencies.
What the Riksbank does next “depends to a large extent on the ECB,” said Knut Hallberg, an analyst at Swedbank. “If they breathe a word of being prepared to do more, then the pressure on the Riksbank will rise again.”
Andreas Wallstroem, an economist at Nordea Bank AB, said his “main scenario is that we will see no additional easing measures from the Riksbank in this cycle.” Nordea forecasts the first rate increase will come in the second quarter of next year. “However, as we don’t see that inflation will rise to the 2 percent target within the forecast horizon, further easing measures cannot be ruled out.”
“The pressure could mount already this afternoon should the krona strengthen on the back of the ECB decision,” he said. The Frankfurt-based bank is due to publish its rate decision later today, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicting no change.
As Bloomberg adds, Sweden is enjoying an economic boom with growth rates in excess of 4 percent. A number of analysts have questioned what impact more easing will have on an economy steaming ahead at such a pace.
The Riksbank is “caught between a domestic economy that is booming while uncertainty in the rest of the world and the financial markets will continue to exert pressure on the Swedish krona and inflation,” said Joergen Kennemar, an economist at Swedbank. “In particular, the more expansive stance of the ECB, but also the Fed, could force the Riksbank to reverse its course of a scale-back monetary policy. Thus, if the ECB and the Fed prevail, the pressure will again arise late this year or early next year.”
Then again, perhaps there is a reason for the stronger SEK response: as Danske Bank notes, perhaps the Riksbank has introduced a mini taper:
— Danske Bank Research (@Danske_Research) April 21, 2016
#FX markets: “Has the #Riksbank introduced ‘mini-tapering’?” QE
program of SEK45bn (less than 50bn). #EURSEK— Danske Bank Research (@Danske_Research) April 21, 2016
Finally, here was Goldman’s take:
The move may be accentuated depending on what the ECB announces in just over half an hour.
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One day after stocks were this close from hitting new all time highs on what have been either ok earnings, if looking at non-GAAP data, or atrocious earnings, based on GAAP, and where any oil headline is now immediately translated as bullish by the oil algos, so far futures are relatively flat, while European stocks were at their moments ago in anticipation of the latest ECB announcement due out in just one hour. However, unlike last month’s “quad-bazooka”, this time the market expects far less from Draghi.
“Having pulled put the monetary bazooka in March, the market is sensibly expecting no further policy measures from the ECB,” said Michael Ingram, a market strategist at BGC Partners in London. “Investors are understandably reticent in making big bets ahead of what is on paper, likely to see policy makers firmly on hold.”
Draghi will come and go, but attention will remain on oil and all other commodities, where the Bloomberg Commodity Index headed for a five-month high, spurred by gains from metals to soy beans, and weighing on government bonds.
Nowhere was the ongoing surge more obvious than in the construction complex, where steel reinforcement bars jumped to a 19-month high in Shanghai, buoyed by an improving Chinese property market, supporting the Australian dollar. As seen on the chart below, both iron ore and steel have gone parabolic this year despite, as reported previously, China’s increase in steel output to record highs. “You’ve got a tight market, you’ve got momentum, and you’ve got this fundamental driver for steel in the government boosting the infrastructure and housing side of things,” Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Ltd. in Melbourne told Bloomberg. “The rebar price is really leading the iron ore price at the moment.”
Following yesterday’s latest surge in oil which saw WTI overtake the “Gartman doomsday” level of $44, it has since leveled off while Brent fluctuated near $46 a barrel after data showed U.S. production slipped and Iraq said talks to freeze output may occur next month.
Commodity gains boosted the outlook for inflation, sending German bund yields to a four-week high. Sweden’s krona rose after the Riksbank expanded bond buying less than some investors expected. Metal increases boosted European miners, while most industries on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined.
“The rally in commodities is making people a bit more positive,” Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London, told Bloomberg. “The base metals are gaining on a view that the industrial cycle is strengthening. There’s broad-based buying in commodities, and that suggests that sentiment is starting to turn. This would have drifted across into mining shares and energy stocks.”
Meanwhile in stocks, Europe’s Stoxx 600 slipped 0.5%, after closing at its highest level since January. Miners in the gauge are heading for six-month high. Carmakers rallied, boosted by a 5.1 percent jump in Volkswagen AG after a person familiar with the matter said it agreed to set aside at least $10 billion to resolve civil claims by the U.S. government and lawsuits by American car owners over diesel vehicles rigged to cheat pollution controls.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 1.2 percent higher. Japan’s Topix index climbed 2 percent to a two-month high, buoyed by prospects the Bank of Japan will boost stimulus at a monetary policy review next week. The authority is likely to increase asset purchases, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts wrote in a report published Wednesday. Mitsubishi Motors Corp. tumbled by the 20 percent daily limit in Tokyo after the automaker said it manipulated fuel-economy tests.
S&P 500 index futures were unchanged, indicating U.S. equities will hold a four-month high as investors assess earnings before making a break for fresh all time highs. General Motors Co., Microsoft Corp. and Visa Inc. are among companies announcing quarterly results Thursday.
Where Markets Stand Now
Global Top News
Looking at regional markets, stocks in Asia continued to trade higher as energy continued to drive sentiment following yesterday’s near 4% advance in oil on speculation of a possible producers meeting in May. This saw the energy sector outperform in the ASX 200 (+1.1%) with several firm earnings reports also underpinning sentiment. Nikkei 225 (+2.7%) led the region amid a weaker JPY to climb back above 17000, while Shanghai Comp (-0.7%) is also positive after a larger liquidity injection by the PBoC, although overheating credit concerns capped gains. JGBs saw mixed trade with 10yr JGBs mildly lower amid strength in Japanese stocks, while yields in the super-long end declined with the 30yr yield at fresh record lows. Furthermore, today’s 20yr auction was better received but failed to provide lasting support.
Top Asia News
Equity specific news has taken focus so far in European hours, with macro news relatively light as participants await the ECB rate decision and press conference later today. In terms of European equities, this morning has been mixed in terms of indices, with Euro Stoxx higher by around 0.25%. Earning season appears in full flow, with Ericsson lower by around 10% after announcing a profit warning pre-market, with the likes of Pernod Ricard also among the worst performers after a pre-market earnings update. Separately, Volkswagen are the best performing stock in Europe today after agreeing a deal with the US regarding the emissions scandal.
Bunds have grinded lower throughout the session so far, with a number of analysts attributing the move below 163.00 to technical selling and positioning ahead of the ECB meeting later today. The commodity complex has seen WTI trade in a relatively tight range this morning in the wake of the significant gains seen so far this week, with the US benchmark remaining above the USD 44/bbl level.
European Top News
In FX, fresh EUR sales seen ahead of the ECB meeting today, where little change is expected to the current measures in place, but all the focus on the following press conference — from which we saw the huge FX moves in March. Moves lacking any momentum though as yet, and through 1.1300, fresh lows are met with snapbacks to highlight indecision. UK retail sales were the key data release, coming in weaker than expected, but were offset by lower public borrowing requirements. GBP was sold into the release aggressively, but after a reluctant dip under 1.4300, we are back in the mid 1.4300’s. Ongoing consolidation in the commodity linked currencies, with USD/CAD finding some support ahead of 1.2600 and now edging back towards 1.2700. WTI
(Jun) is still trading on a $44.0 handle — just — but near term calm is enough ease CAD strength for now. USD/JPY continues to hold off 110.00, but is equally well bid on modest dips, with positive equities and the BoJ meeting next week lending some support
In commodities, WTI may have met a key resistance level of USD 44/bbl (which is also the 50% retracement from the Apr’15 highs to the Feb’16 lows) after yesterday’s strong rally after OPEC announced they are set to call another meeting to revive output freeze/cut talks. Also of note today sees the release of the EIA natural gas with the previous result at -3 this comes after NatGas futures have slightly retraced after declines in recent months . Gold has been moving higher and has now broken a key resistance level of USD 1257.90/oz, also Silver has been making strong gains breaking through the USD 17.50/oz this morning , this comes amid broad-based strength across commodities which also saw copper and iron ore extend on gains, with Dalian iron ore futures hitting limit-up at a 19-month high alongside Shanghai rebar’s 7% advance, following supply cuts by large industry names.
The US calendar picks up notably today. We kick off with the Chicago Fed national activity index, Philly Fed manufacturing survey and the latest initial jobless claims data, before there’s more house price data in the form of the FHFA house price index, before concluding this afternoon with the Conference Board’s leading index (where a +0.4% mom gain is expected). The BoE’s Carney is due to speak again this afternoon, while it’s a bumper day for earnings across the pond. 37 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report including Alphabet, General Motors, Verizon, Microsoft and Schlumberger.
Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk
US Event Calendar
Central Banks
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to ECB meeting day, 6 weeks on from Draghi’s policy bazooka. In the PDF today we’ve updated our performance review chart to track global assets since this point. Of particular interest to us is where European assets are in the mix. When we last ran this nearly two weeks ago returns for European assets had been relatively weak post-ECB with many of the areas of the market Draghi had tried to help having underperformed. The last 14 days have seen a marked turnaround in sentiment however and now all of the European assets we look at are back in positive territory over the relative time frame. In bond markets Bunds have returned just shy of 1% with Spanish bonds now catching up and matching on a total return basis. BTP’s are just in positive territory (+0.3%) but have underperformed with the Italian banking concerns. Performance for equity markets has been strong with the Stoxx 600 now up +4% which is a marked turnaround from -3% of two weeks ago. Regionally it’s the DAX (+7%) which leads the way (and ahead of the S&P 500 which is up +6%), followed closely by the peripheral bourses of Portugal (+6%), Greece (+6%) and Spain (+5%) with the FTSE MIB (+3%) lagging behind. European banks have staged a huge turnaround of late also and are now positing a +2% gain, which is an +11% or so swing from two weeks ago. It won’t come as much surprise to hear that EUR credit has continued to remain well supported with EUR HY (+4%), EUR IG Non-Fin (+2%) and EUR Fin Sub (+2%) all in low single digit return territory and out-performing bunds. That said it’s interesting to see that EUR credit has generally underperformed its US counterparts by a percent or so, reflecting the lower energy exposure over a period of a large rally in Oil prices (WTI +11%).
Perhaps of most interest to us today will be evidence of any logistical progress on the corporate bond purchasing program (CSPP). Since the announcement date details for the program have been thin with the hope that today will bring greater clarity around the potential size, split between primary and secondary markets and the finer details around bond eligibility. It might still be too early to hear much though. A report from Michal Jezek in my team, which we attach the link below to, shows that ECB eligible eurozone bonds initially outperformed post the ECB CSPP announcement and in the two weeks or so after. However since then they have underperformed non-eurozone bonds almost to the same magnitude. The turnaround has coincided with a higher beta global rally over the last two weeks or so, so that’s certainly helped the performance of the generally wider higher beta non-eurozone issues. We also provide a list of the top and bottom 100 bonds by performance since the ECB announcement.
Outside of the ECB today the main topic for markets continues to be Oil which is clearly the dominant driver for price action at the moment. Last night saw WTI close +3.77% at $42.63/bbl and so eclipsing the highest price for the year. That means Oil is now just over +13.5% up from the post-Doha early Monday morning lows now, or nearly $5. It’s worth noting that we roll onto the June contract today which is currently trading around $44/bbl this morning (and unchanged). Yesterday the early concerns from the announcement of the end of the Kuwait oil strike was quickly forgotten about post the latest EIA data which showed inventory levels coming in lower than expected and which appeared to be enough to fuel the rally. Later on we also saw headlines filter through suggesting that OPEC and other crude producers could meet as soon as next month in Russia in a bid to restart production freeze talks according to Iraq’s deputy oil minister.
With little other news flow, the rally in Oil has seen most markets in Asia this morning get off to a solid start. It’s Japan which is currently leading the way with the Nikkei +2.51%, while elsewhere there are decent gains for the Hang Seng (+1.79%), Kospi (+0.63%) and ASX (+0.91%). Bourses in China are back to flat after initially opening in the red while credit markets in Australia and Asia are generally a couple of basis points tighter.
In fact it was a broadly better day for commodities all round yesterday. The rest of the energy complex rallied in vain, while base metals also bounced (Aluminium +2.21%, Copper +0.91%, Nickel +0.59%). Iron ore also rallied another 3% and has quietly surged over 11% this week alone to the highest level since June last year. A big rise in Chinese steel demand has coincided with the rally, while the supply side of the equation has also been given a boost with production reports from the big mining names this week (BHP, Rio Tinto and Vale) all hinting at lower production guidance this year and next.
As a result of gains in the commodity space, along with another decent day for financials, it ended up being another positive day for risk markets generally yesterday. European equity markets rallied back from a weak open, with the Stoxx 600 closing +0.43% for its third consecutive daily gain. A late dip into the close meant gains were more modest in the US (S&P 500 +0.08%) but the Dow and S&P 500 continue to extend the recent highs. US credit markets were the big outperformer. In the CDS space CDX IG closed nearly 3bps tighter and to the strongest level since August last year, while in the cash market we saw US HY energy spreads finished nearly 30bps tighter and are all of a sudden over 60bps tighter in two days. Earnings reports appeared to be less of a factor driving markets yesterday but we’ve got a number of tech heavyweights reporting today as well as the first hint of earnings in the energy sector when Schlumberger report after the close – it’ll be worth keeping an eye on those numbers.
There wasn’t a whole lot of economic data for us to digest yesterday. The only data we did get in the US was in the form of more housing data, although in contrast to some of the softer reports earlier this week, yesterday’s existing home sales print of +5.1% mom was ahead of expectations (+3.9% expected) with the annualized rate ticking up 5.3m from 5.1m in February. Treasury yields moved higher and the benchmark 10y (which rose 6bps) finished at 1.846% and the highest yield since March. Interestingly, we also noted that the Bloomberg US financial conditions index was up nearly 6bps yesterday, indicative of easing of financial conditions, with the current level suggesting that conditions are now easier than when the Fed moved to hike back in December.
The rest of the economic data of interest yesterday was in the UK with the latest employment readings. The unemployment rate was reported as holding steady at 5.1% in February as expected, while the change in employment growth of 20k in the three months to the end of Feb was less than hoped for (60k expected). Of perhaps most importance was the softer than expected earnings data. Average weekly earnings including bonuses printed at +1.8% yoy, well below expectations (+2.3% expected) and down three-tenths from the prior month. That said there was no change in the earnings data stripping out the effect of bonuses.
Taking a look at the day ahead, the highlight this morning datawise will likely be the March retail sales numbers for the UK, while French confidence indicators are also due out. The aforementioned ECB meeting is due at 12.45pm BST with President Draghi due to speak shortly after, while the Riksbank will also hold their own policy rate decision (no move expected). Over in the US the calendar picks up notably today. We’ll kick off with the Chicago Fed national activity index, Philly Fed manufacturing survey and the latest initial jobless claims data, before there’s more house price data in the form of the FHFA house price index, before concluding this afternoon with the Conference Board’s leading index (where a +0.4% mom gain is expected). The BoE’s Carney is due to speak again this afternoon, while it’s a bumper day for earnings across the pond. 37 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report including Alphabet, General Motors, Verizon, Microsoft and Schlumberger.
via http://ift.tt/1TkOsSV Tyler Durden
One commodity trader writes in with some very unique observations. From trader “Peter”
* * *
The insanity has now fully spilled into the commodity markets – a market which I professionally made a transition to after the 2008 crisis from the financial markets, simply because I believed it was a market that would still function according to true fundamentals…
I guess that only lasted so long…
The commodity markets have been prone to excessive speculation for years, but at the end, the thought of specializing in something “tangible” that EVENTUALLY would have to revert back to true supply and demand fundamentals made all the sense in the world. Specially with the true circus that the financial markets have become since 2008…
* * *
From: XXXXXXXXXX
To: “Peter”
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 1:35 PM
Subject: volume totals today
774K of soybeans traded today and that would be a record by nearly 160K contracts as yesterday set the record at 615K.
Over 88K Jly/Nov traded today and 97K May/Jly traded. Unheard of non-roll numbers.
Meal volume was 270K and we have to think that was a record as well but not 100% on that one.
Lots of ideas around to try and explain the move: from commercial short hedgers blowing out, Chinese pricing, product switching from Argentina to the US.
Not really sure if all or any of this is true but it was quite a wild session
* * *
From: “Peter”
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 2:41 PM
To: XXXXXXXXXX
Subject: RE: Some staggering volume totals today
Man… I would be VERY surprised if this was due to any of the reasons people are mentioning…
Chinese pricing – I am very positive it does have something to do with it, but for the overnight session – not the daytime.
Commercial hedgers blowing out – very possibly adding to the mess – but no way commercial volume takes us to these levels of ridiculousness in total volume…
Product switching from ARG – yep, because we REALLY need to ration our 400+ mb bean stocks… LOL
This is way past insane, ridiculous, etc…
The “fundamental” reasons people are trying to ping to this are simply a nice “window dressing”…
There is nothing else that can explain this other than you know what?
Here comes my Very-REAL Conspiracy Theory: the stupid FED and other Central Bankers around the world acting in unison to artificially raise inflation so that they can hopefully get out of the F’ing mess they got themselves into with this low/negative rate BS. Call me crazy, and I am not a “conspiracy theorist” – but what is happening has absolutely no “reasonable” explanation. So I have to think outside the box…
The FED and other Central Banks have already destroyed the equity and other macro-financial markets… it is now turn for the commodities markets…
I am serious … I really am… I wish I was just being sarcastic… but pause for a moment and think about what is written above…
What explains the move in Crude? Ok, I could try and put some sort of “rationality” on the initial move from $26 – $40 (as crazy as it was), but the action in the oil market since Sunday’s “about face” in Doha? No way anything other than pure, simple and outright manipulation can explain these last 3 days of action in the crude oil market… nothing…
How about the fact that the main drag on the inflation figures has been what? What? FOOD & ENERGY…
So is it so crazy to think that Central Bankers all got together in early 2016 and came up with the following equation???
ARTIFICIALLY RAISE COMMODITY VALUATIONS = HIGHER ARTIFICIAL INFLATION = CLAMORING FOR RATES TO BE RAISED = CENTRAL BANKS HAVING A “SUCCESSFUL” END TO THE CLUSTERFCK THEY GOT THEMSELVES AND THE REST OF ALL OF US INTO WITH THEIR “ZIRP” AND “NIRP” EXPERIMENTS…
Who or what has the power to produce such volume in such short amount of time?????? Not the powerful Chinese, not the commercials, not even the “regular” hedge fund crowd… This is much bigger than that Chris… much bigger…
When you pause and think about what I just wrote – it will not sound that crazy after all…
I truly wish I was joking…
I also wish I could let go of my natural makeup of focusing on “fundamentals” and just go long everything… but I don’t believe I can… and I am frankly and idiot for it…
Don’t write this off as some crazy conspiracy… Think about it… it is almost scary how much sense it makes…
At the end of the day… it is what it is…
Peter
via http://ift.tt/1WfdO7j Tyler Durden
Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)
People have rights – at least we used to have them, until the mythological “War on Terror” was rammed down our throats as a pretext for stripping us of many rights. Corporations cannot have rights, which should be evident to all citizens in our pseudo-democracies.
However, thanks to the endemic brainwashing of the corporate media, this important distinction of law/logic is no longer obvious to many. Indeed, in the United States, corporations have been elevated to a legal status at least equal to that of its citizens – if not above the status of the people.
Precipitating this discussion, we offer a particularly odious piece of propaganda from the mainstream media, where a purported law professor attempts to advance the specious argument that corporations (in the United States) have “free speech rights.”
The scope of the First Amendment [free speech] lies at the heart of my thought experiment. We live in an era when criticisms of corporate speech can become overwrought. Many activists deny that corporations have any free speech rights at all.
Not even the four dissenters [judges] in Citizens United v. Federal Elections Commission took that position. They conceded that corporations possess First Amendment rights . They simply argued that the government, with sufficiently strong reason, can limit some avenues for the expression of those rights as long as it leaves other avenues open.
This is wrong, in every respect. It is “bad law” in every respect. It reflects a refusal of the corrupt U.S. judiciary system to acknowledge the limits of our governments’ authority. It is nothing less than a complete betrayal of the oath these judges take to uphold the law.
Here, the perversion of reality descends to the level of cultural insanity. In the United States, a corporation is “a person.” This is an outrageous distortion of law and reality, particularly once we place this legal perversion into its proper context. In the United States, a fetus is not “a person.”
Irrespective of one’s views on the highly emotionally-charged subject of abortion, one fact is clear. If a human fetus is not legally deemed to be “a person,” then obviously an inanimate corporation could never be deemed as such. As a matter of basic biology and elementary logic, the claim of a fetus to the status of “a person” must be above any claims by mere corporations.
Because of our brainwashing, this point still may not be obvious to some readers, thus a further definition of terms is necessary. We will begin with defining the word “right.” Since our context for examining rights is a legal one, our definition must be legally rather than linguistically oriented.
This is an important point, as the word “right” is used both very loosely and colloquially in our societies. Dictionary definitions are of little help here. Consult a half dozen different dictionaries, and one will see the word “right” defined in six different ways.
To define the word in a legal context requires first answering a preliminary question: from where do our rights originate? Primarily, our rights are derived from the Constitutions of our nations. To a lesser extent, they are also derived from the United Nation’s “Universal Declaration of Human Rights.” However, as this document has (at best) only quasi-official status within our various nations, our rights are primarily derived from the former source.
Our Constitutions exist above the level of our governments. We know this to be true, because we require that any amendments to our Constitution only be enacted via some sort of Super Majority. This is to demonstrate to the people that the proposed change(s) reflects the will of the people, and it is only under such circumstances that we allow our governments to modify our Constitution.
Our rights come from our Constitutions, and our Constitutions have a legal status above that of our governments. Thus our rights exist, legally, above the level of our governments. Why is this point of such great importance? Because it sheds light on the true definition of “a right.”
Because our rights exist above the legal level of our governments, our governments do not (and cannot) bestow rights. Rather, our human rights are intrinsic and inalienable. This conclusion simply mirrors the language of the U.N.’s Universal Declaration:
Whereas recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world.
As a proposition of both law and logic, this makes much of our anti-terrorism laws legally null and void, since they seek to infringe upon, if not eliminate, rights which exist above the authority of our governments.
Governments cannot grant rights. Equally, they cannot take them away, except via Constitutional amendment. Here it is very important that we distinguish the word “right” from a somewhat similar word/concept: “privilege.”
Privileges resemble rights except for one crucial distinction of law/logic. Privileges are revocable. Our governments do have the legal authority to grant privileges, and thus to revoke privileges – something for which they lack the legal authority with respect to rights.
This brings us to another extremely important definition: “corporation.” A corporation is an inanimate, paper entity. More specifically, it is a front for wealth. These paper shells have been created in order to facilitate the deployment of wealth, and thus facilitate commerce. Of equal importance, corporations are a creation of government.
Why are these basic traits of corporations of such great legal relevance to this discussion?
1) Corporations have a legal status created by our governments, and thus a legal status equal to our governments, but well below the status of our human rights.
2) In our world of mega-corporations, corporations have become primarily the paper fronts for the ultra-wealthy.
Dealing with the second point first, it should become immediately apparent why – as an issue of justice and equity – a corporation could never have rights. As individuals, the ultra-wealthy already have rights equal to and commensurate with the rights of all other citizens. This is all they could ever be entitled to. If we grant rights to the mega-corporations owned by the ultra-wealthy, we are granting this one class of individuals a second set of rights – in addition to their intrinsic, human rights.
This is obviously unjust and inequitable. When we then examine the first point (above), we see how supposedly granting rights to corporations is clearly illegal.
We have already established that our legal rights exist above the level of our governments. They cannot create or bestow rights, nor can they take them away. Obviously, if they cannot bestow rights to the people, they cannot bestow rights upon inanimate corporations – entities with a legal status equal to that of our governments. They lack the authority.
Similarly, if a government cannot legally bestow rights upon corporations, they cannot elevate corporations to a status equal to that of the people, i.e. by defining a corporation as “a person.” This is simply an indirect means of doing what we have already established is illegal. If we allow our governments to define any entity it chooses as “a person,” we would be giving these governments the back-door power to bestow rights, something which is unequivocally beyond their legal authority.
One does not have to be a judge, or even a law professor in order to understand these elementary points of law, logic, and justice. How could someone who (supposedly) possesses the legal expertise of a law professor have constructed the fallacious and ludicrous argument that “corporations have rights”?
He did so by deliberately refusing to define the terms he was using. It is much easier to lie to people, and to pretend that corporations have rights if you scrupulously avoid any precise definition of what a “right” actually is.
A definition of terms is the foundation of all valid analysis. Refusing to define the terms that one uses in constructing their arguments is the methodology of the propagandist. Most lies and propaganda are couched in semantics, and engaging in semantic deception is impossible if one first precisely (and correctly) defines their terminology.
People have rights. People have a legal status well above that of mere corporations. Corporations can never have rights. Corporations exist at a legal level equal to that of our own governments (another form of paper entity), and well below the level of a person.
A corporation can, at best, have privileges bestowed upon it – privileges which can be taken away by any legislative act. Perhaps the greatest outrage and tragedy of this issue is that it even requires an explanation.
At one time, the citizens of our nations understood that the government serves the people, not the other way around. At one time, the citizens of our nations understood that their own legal status (and the status of their rights) exists above the authority level of our governments.
Instead, we are now mere serfs in the most illegitimate of hierarchies. Corrupt governments regularly pass pseudo-laws, which grossly exceed the level of their legal authority, and are thus null and void. Corrupt judiciaries have abdicated their own legal duty, and now simply rubber-stamp an endless stream of these null-and-void laws.
The people of our nations need to know their rights. But first, they have to understand them.
Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)
via http://ift.tt/1SvmC6o Sprott Money