Silver Surges Most In 6 Months As Hedgers Cover

The last 3 days have seen silver prices surge over 6%, testing back towards the psychologically important $16 level.

 

Having been pressured lower after the ECB bounce, the precious metal jumped perfectly off its critical 200-day moving-average, nearing the highs of the year once again.

 

It appears some of the recent driver is the largest unwind of commercial hedges since November…


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/23pafRD Tyler Durden

Earnings Implosion Looms Amid The Illusion Of “Permanent Liquidity”

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

YELLEN IS YELLIN’ & THE MARKET’S ARE LISTENIN’


If you like volatility, you had to love this past week. After sliding 22 points on Tuesday, the market rebounded sharply on Wednesday, gave up those plus more on Thursday, and as of Friday is struggling to stay positive.

SP500-Chart1-040816

The spike on Wednesday followed the release of the FOMC minutes which confirmed “bad news is still good news” for the markets as global weakness is keeping the Fed from hiking rates. The surge out of the gate on Friday was again “Fed Speak” as Fed President William Dudley continued “dovish” comments suggesting no rush to hiking rates anytime soon. To wit:

Caution is needed because of our limited ability to reduce the policy rate to respond to adverse developments, recognizing that we could also use forward guidance and balance sheet policies to provide additional accommodation if that proved warranted.

Although the downside risks have diminished since earlier in the year, I still judge the balance of risks to my inflation and growth outlooks to be tilted slightly to the downside.

And with those “silky smooth” words, traders rushed to buy stocks as the risk of tighter monetary policy continues to pushed further out into the future. Like the cartoon shows, courtesy of Hedgeye, the only thing that matters to the markets right now is the Fed.

Yellen-Listening

Of course, while the Fed continues to talk about the need to hike rates in the future as inflationary pressures rise due to strong economic growth. A quick look at the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow shows a bit of different story.

“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.1 percent on April 8, down from 0.4 percent on April 5. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from –0.4 percentage points to –0.7 percentage points.”

gdpnow-forecast-evolution

It is worth noting on February 14th, the estimate for Q1 economic growth was ringing in at 2.7%. With earnings deteriorating and economic growth collapsing the ability for the Fed to raise rates remains a proverbial “Unicorn.”

Of course, with consumer spending slowing sharply it is no wonder corporate profits, a direct reflection of real consumption, are getting weaker. The chart below, from BankAmerica, shows the seasonally adjusted retail sales ex-autos measure from the BAC aggregate card data was unchanged SA in March, leaving the 3-month moving average to decline 0.2%. While a part of this weakness owes to a continued decline in gasoline prices. We find that retail sales ex-autos and gasoline was up 0.3% mom SA, which continues to be in a downward trend.

This confirms the downward revision to the Census Bureau data in January which made government data more consistent with the BAC internal data. According to Bank of America:

We therefore also look for only a slight improvement in March Census Bureau sales, in a similar pattern as the BAC internal data.

In other words, Q1 GDP is weak for a very specific reason: consumer spending remains anemic.

Retail-Spending

But wait, low oil and gasoline prices were supposed to provide a boost to consumers wallets? 

That was always a grossly flawed and incorrect economic theory. As I explained in detail in “Falling Energy Costs & The Economic Impact:”

“Simply put, lower oil and gasoline prices may have a bigger detraction on the economy that the ‘savings’ provided to consumers.”


Earnings Season Begins, But May Be Disappointing

As we head into earnings season, estimates have been lowered, beaten down, crushed and lowered some more. So, when you lower the bar far enough, you shouldn’t be surprised to see a large number of companies, after share buybacks, accounting gimmicks, and cost cutting winning the “beat the estimate” game.

You can see the negative revisions in Dr. Ed Yardeni’s chart below.

EPS-Yardeni

But it is actually much worse than that. I keep track of the changes in S&P 500 estimates and reality and update a report at the end of each quarter. (See Latest Here)

The chart below from Goldman Sachs, from November of 2014, expected corporate profits to surge in the coming years with 2015 ending at $122/share. As long as earnings keep accelerating higher, a P/E multiple of 17x earnings can be maintained indefinitely into the future. 

GS-Profits-SP500-Targets-022316

Clearly, one should buy stocks today and hold them long-term given such an incredible undervaluation, right?

The problem is the is the huge disparity between expectations and reality as shown in the chart below which compares economic growth to earnings growth. Wall Street has always extrapolated earnings growth indefinitely into the future without taking into account the effects of the normal economic and business cycles. This was the same in 2000 and 2007. Unfortunately, the economy neither forgets nor forgives.

SP500-Earnings-GDP-Growth-030616

With estimates once again very optimistic, and given a complete disregard to the late stage of the current economic cycle, there is currently not one Wall Street analyst expecting a recession.

Unfortunately, it is only a function of time until the next economic downturn takes hold, particularly given the currently weak global outlook. As shown, earnings tend to cycle regularly between 6% peak to peak and 5% trough to trough growth in earnings. In 2014, expectations exceeded the current 6% peak to peak growth rate. I said then that it was only a question of what will trip up such overly optimistic picture. We now have that answer and real earnings have fallen far short of those original estimates.

Earnings-Reversions-030516

The problem with forward earnings estimates is that they consistently overestimate reality by roughly 33% historically. The chart below shows the consistently sliding revisions of analyst expectations versus the reality of corporate profitability. At the end of 2014, it was estimated that by Q4 of 2015 reported earnings would reach in excess of $131.00. However, Standard & Poors then revised down their estimates to just $104.03 at the end of Q1 in 2015. We are now looking at just $86.53 a share for 2015. What a miss.

SP500-Forward-Estimates-030616

The illusion of“permanent liquidity,” and the belief of sustained economic growth, despite slowing in China, Japan, and the Eurozone, has emboldened analysts to continue push estimates of corporate profit growth higher. Even now, as the earnings recession deepens, hopes of a sharp rebound in profitability remains ebullient despite the lack of any signs of economic re-acceleration.

However, despite the disaster in earnings over the last quarter, future expectations continue to be focused on a sharp recovery through the end of this year. As noted by BCA Research:

“A broad-based EPS contraction has already caused havoc in the overall market in recent months, but a more painful downturn has been averted because nominal GDP growth has managed to stay above long-term Treasury yields. However, leading economic indicators remain bearish, and the slide in the monetary base warns that the path of least resistance for GDP growth is lower. History shows that once GDP growth dips below the level of 10-year Treasury yields, a prolonged slump in stocks typically ensues.

 

To be sure, U.S. profits key off the state of the global economy, not just domestic trends. According to our Global Leading Economic Indicator (GLEI), growth is also too weak outside the U.S. to expect a profit turnaround. The GLEI is correlated with U.S. net earnings revisions, which are currently deeply negative following several consecutive quarters of poor operating profits across the corporate sector.

 

This outlook contrasts starkly with current expectations. The Chart below shows that an aggressive recovery in S&P 500 earnings is expected this year.”

DIN-20160314-135040

Importantly, these expectations are not simply a reflection of hopes for a recovery in resource prices, but are broad-based across sectors. That is wildly optimistic, underscoring that disappointment will remain a key risk.

 

It is too ambitious to expect equity risk premiums to narrow given such a large gap between reality and expectations. Our U.S. equity strategists remain comfortable with a defensive sector portfolio structure, and caution against chasing the recent bounce in the bulk of cyclical sectors.

I could not agree more with BCA’s comments.

Economic growth is a function of consumption. If economic growth is weak, then consumption must therefore also be weak. If consumption is weak, then corporate revenues will also be weak. As shown below, declines in revenue have been a strong precursor to economic recessions. Of course, while accounting gimmicks and share buybacks can buoy profits temporarily, it is not sustainable and the eventual downturn is inevitable.

Earnings-Vs-Sales-040816-2

The point here is that while prices have improved short-term, which have been a function of the “verbal easing” issued by the Fed, the underlying realities of the market are far different. As is always the case, estimates are likely to fall sharply as economic reality continues to take hold.

Why anyone pays attention for forward estimates is beyond me given a 90% miss rate. Remember that the next time someone tells you that “stocks are cheap based on forward estimates.” 

Could prices maintain their current levels long enough for the economic cycle to turn and catch up? Possibly. It has just never occurred before in history….ever.


This Looks Awfully Familiar

While allocations have been very conservative since last May, avoiding the ensuing volatile declines last summer and the start of this year, I noted last week the markets had improved technically in the VERY SHORT-TERM which could allow for an increase in equity exposure.

I have updated the analysis from last week through Friday’s close.

SP500-Chart2-040816

1. The shaded areas represent 2 and 3-standard deviations of price movement from the 125-day moving average. I am using a longer-term moving average here to represent more extreme price extensions of the index. The last 4-times prices were 3-standard deviations below the moving average, the subsequent rallies were very sharp as short positions were forced to cover. Not surprisingly, the recent rally was just as sharp as the last two.

2. The top and bottom of the chart show the overbought/sold conditions of the market. The recent rally has responded as expected from recent oversold conditions. With the oversold condition now exhausted, the potential for further upside has been greatly reduced. I have notated with red arrows that when this overbought condition reverses it has marked the end of the previous rally going back to 2014.

3. The red dashed line shows the current descending trend lines that continue to provide resistance to the advance. While the recent advance is now challenging that downtrend line, the collision of resistance levels may prove a challenge to a further advance from current levels. The arching dashed blue line shows the change of overall advancing to now declining price trends. 

4. The market is testing very important support at 2040. In order for the “bull market” to reassert itself, the current consolidation must continue until the current overbought condition is resolved.

As I stated last week the markets have currently registered a very short-term buy signal. It is not uncommon that such a signal would be triggered given the recent advance.

However, notice in the chart below, that following the August slide, the 50-dma crossed below the 200-dma. The ensuing rally, and subsequent choppy topping action allowed the 50-dma to cross back above the 200-dma giving an “all clear” signal to the “bulls.” That “false flag” was quickly reversed by the subsequent plunge back previous lows.

The current peak in the market is extremely similar to that of last November with the 50-dma turning up and once again approaching the 200-dma. Will this be another “head fake” in the ongoing topping process? Possibly. We will have to wait and see. 

SP500-Chart4-040816

The chart above also shows more clearly the current negative trend in the market. Importantly, note the two green circles at the top and bottom of the chart. Both of these indicators are similarly positioned to the last sharp rally and market peak at the end of 2014. 

 

With volume on rallies declining, the risk of a continued correction into next week is likely. It is critically important the market clings to support at 2020, where the 200-dma currently resides, or a deeper slide will ensue as we head into the seasonal summer weakness.

While I am on the lookout for an opportunity to modestly increase equity exposure in portfolios given better conditions, I will do so with extreme caution and very close “stop loss” levels. Given the extremely weak underlying fundamentals and NO improvement in the intermediate-term technicals of the market, I do fully expect to be “stopped out” of any additional equity exposure I may add.  

“For longer-term investors, and for those close to retirement, I highly caution you against ‘chasing the market’ currently. The risk to downside far exceeds the potential for further returns in the markets currently.”

The markets have a very nasty habit of sucking individuals into the markets when prices become detached from fundamentals. Throughout history, each time such a deviation occurred, investors thought “this time was different.”

It wasn’t. 

“Gravity works in the market as well as science. It takes buying to move the market up, but when buying dries up, stocks will fall of their own weight.” Jesse Livermore


THE MONDAY MORNING CALL

The Monday Morning Call – Analysis For Active Traders


As discussed last week, there is a short-term buy signal currently in place due to the strong rally in March. To wit:

“In the chart below, you will note that the previous rallies which took the markets to very overbought short-term conditions (top part of the chart). However, those rallies did not reverse the sell-signal in the lower part of the chart.Each of these previous rallies subsequently failed taking stocks lower. This is why the allocation model remained exposed to lower levels of equity risk during this entire period.”

SP500-MarketUpdate-040116-4

“Currently, as shown above, the short-term dynamics of the market have improved sufficiently enough to trigger an early “buy” signal. This suggests a moderate increase in equity exposure is warranted given a proper opportunity. However, to ensure that the current advance is not a “head-fake,” as repeated seen previously, the market will need to reduce the current overbought condition without violating near-term support levels OR reversing the current buy signal.”

This past week, the “backing and filling” market action began that necessary consolidation process has stayed above important support levels at the 200-dma. That process is likely not complete as of yet as shown below.

SPX-short-term-signals-040916

All of the very short-term signals are currently suggesting more corrective action is likely. However, as stated above, that corrective action must not violate important longer term support. If such a violation occurs over the next week or so, the opportunity to add “trading positions” to portfolios will be negated. 

Furthermore, the short-term market breadth indicator is also rolling over confirming a short-term corrective process is likely in the works.

SP500-marketbreadth-040816

My friends over at iViewMarkets track the number of stocks on strong buys vs sells. That ratio is now approaching rather extreme levels which also confirms the current short-term overbought market condition.

Stong-Buy-Sell-Ratio-040916

I reiterate from last week:

“While the technical underpinnings of the market have improved short-term, the risk of increasing equity exposure this coming week is not favorable. However, on a pullback to support, currently 2000-2020 on the S&P 500, a tactical increase to equity exposure in the strongest sectors of the market may be viable.”


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1StrndF Tyler Durden

ZIRP, NIRP, QE, Bank Collapse and Helicopters Coming Too Late – The Lehman Effect Hits Europe – Hard!

It’s official, I’m calling a banking crisis in Europe. Things didn’t go well the last time I did this. Of course, many will say, “But the rating agencies have learned their collective lessons. They would most assuredely warn us if the European banks are close to going bust, right?!!!”. Yeah, right! Reference our past research note on so-called trusted parties in private blockchains for banks. Those interested in purchasing the 22 page report on what is likely the first major bank to fall victim to the coming Pan-European Banking Crisis can do so here. All others, feel free to read on…

 

Here are some key points:

  1.  The distress in Europe is being caused by large as well as small banks. Slowdown in global growth, negative interest rates being pursued by central banks that will impact bank’s profits, and deteriorating asset quality are the main reasons.
  2.  Some of the big European banks have fared very badly in recent performance. Credit Suisse, for instance, announced a fourth quarter (2015) loss of $5.8 billion
  3.  Recent failure of two major Russian banks has worsened the outlook
  4.  Banks with large RE exposure and large NPLs are considered to more susceptible than the others
  5.  The presence of too many banks in trouble in Europe is aggravating the problem beyond the control of ECB
  6.  Banking sector is in trouble as global slowdown has affected quality of assets, margins for banks and business growth prospects in quite the negative direction. The global economy, with the EU and China/Japan in particular, is slowing signficantly – and this after years of ZIRP, NIRP, QE and other highly creative bailout measures. Next up, pure helicopter cash and further ineffective acts of desperation to be ignored by the media and investing populace.

The “2015 EU-wide transparency exercise”- a report on 105 banks across 21 countries in the European Union published by The European Banking Authority (EBA) raises concern on the bad debt held by banks. The report mentioned European banks have a mountain of bad debts totaling around €1tn. The bad debt amount to 5.6% of total loans and advances of Europe’s Banks and 10% when lending to other financial institutions are excluded. This stands on a higher side compared to the US banks which have a bad debt ratio of only 1.67% against total loans. What many may miss in these numbers is unlike corporate and retail loans, most lending to other financial institutions is indirectly and in some ways directly backstopped by the ECB through programs such as the LTRO and TLTRO. Any banker who can read this report should not, and likely does not, trust his/her fellow European banker.

Banking is a business that relies heavily on trust, and EU banks don’t trust each other. The system, without the significant and necessarily heavy interference of the ECB is essentially locked up. The EU no longer has a banking ecosystem, but an ECB-led and heavily subsidized financial welfare system. 

 

 Our previous article on this topic showed similarities between EU banks and Bear Stearns in terms of credit quality and the folly of ignoring notional value exposure in potential violent markets. Here I want to emphasize the similarities between EU banks with high NPL growth and the biggest bank failures in global history (both of which were predicted well ahead of time by Veritaseum Founder, Reggie Middleton, via his forensic research team).

    • By year-end 2007 its balance sheet showed $395 billion in assets supported by $11.1 billion in equity – a leverage ratio of around 36 to 1. Notional contracts amounted to around $13.4 trillion in derivative financial instruments of which around 14% were in listed futures and option contracts.
    • Leverage Concerns One measure of a company’s capital adequacy that investors and regulators look to is the relationship of assets to equity, leverage. Lehman computed and reported this measure by dividing assets by stockholders’ equity. In November 2007, Lehman reported a leverage ratio of 30.7x. (Lehman 2007, 29) This ratio had been 23.9x in 2004 (Ibid.) had remained somewhat constant until 2006 when Lehman adopted a more aggressive growth strategy

The bank that we have detailed in our latest research report sports a very similar forensic leverage ratio…

As excerpted from a Swiss National Bank research report:

High leverage as a main cause of financial fragility… The Swiss economy is far from the epicentre of the current financial crisis. Yet, the two big Swiss banks have been hit particularly hard by recent events. This is to a large extent the consequence of their extraordinarily high leverage. For some years now, we have argued that their high leverage makes them particularly vulnerable to extreme financial shocks. Looking at risk-based capital measures, the two large Swiss banks were among the best-capitalised large international banks in the world. Looking at simple leverage, however, these institutions were among the worst-capitalised banks. With the benefit of hindsight, we clearly should have put even greater emphasis on the risks of excessive leverage. Excessive leverage is by no means a problem uniquely associated with the two big Swiss banks. There is increasing international recognition that excessive leverage has been a crucial contributing factor to the current crisis. In April, the Chairman of the Financial Stability Forum (FSF), Governor Mario Draghi, summarised the view of the FSF when he said: “Our conviction is that […] institutions have accumulated a level of leverage that was both misperceived and excessive.” Gerald Corrigan argues that “leverage, in its many forms clearly was a driving force in creating the market conditions that would trigger the crisis, just as the inevitable de-leveraging on the downside of the cycle would severely amplify the magnitude of the crisis.” In a similar vein, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stresses that the dramatic deleveraging of financial institutions is exacerbating the downward spiral so prevalent in the current crisis. Hence, by implication, the high starting levels of leverage are a major source of the severe and ongoing adjustment problems. Finally, the leaders of the G20 declared only last month that “excessive leverage” was a root cause of “vulnerabilities in the system”. Moreover, the problem of excessive leverage is not limited to the current crisis. It has been a pivotal feature of most previous financial crises. John Galbraith, for instance, has carefully documented the role of debt and leverage in crises going back to the 17th century. More recently, the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets concluded that, “The principal policy issue arising out of the events surrounding the near collapse of Long-Term Capital Management is how to constrain excessive leverage.”

The numbers of our research report’s targeted bank and “trusted party” are as follows:

In closing, excessive leverage brings us right back to 2008 again…

  2015
  EUR Million
   
Tier 1 Capital                      5,884
Risk-weighted assets                    44,744
Capital Adequacy Ratio 13.15%
Off balance Sheet Exposure                 117,101
Due from Banks  6,430
Loans to customers 110,671
10% of off balance sheet exposure                    11,710
Ratio 10% of off balance sheet exposure to Tier1 Capital 199.02%
An adverse move of just 10% of off balance sheet exposure can wipe 2x of equity. 4% of total asset move will wipe equity
Leverage Ratio for 2015                    27.51 x
The bank is growing loans, ratio assuredly higher already
For the sake of comparison:  
Bear Stearns’ leverage ratio                    36.00 x
Lehman Brothers’ leverate ratio                    30.70 x

 

Those interested in purchasing the 22 page report on what is likely the first major bank to fall victim to the coming Pan-European Banking Crisis can do so here. These research notes serve two primary purposes: 

  1. To debunk the myth that any bank or financial institution can truly be a “trusted party” in a blockchain solution – private or otherwise.
  2. As a byproduct of 1) above, parties serious about blockchain solutions must serious consider and investigate Veritaseum’s zero trust value trading platform that eliminate the need to trust any party, particularly those “untrustworthy” parties. Feel free to contact me for more information.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1RP86HI Reggie Middleton

Here Is The “Front Page” The Boston Globe Should Have Used

On Sunday, in its best attempt to immitate The Onion, the Boston Globe released an issue whose front page was a satirical look at what life under president Obama one year from now would look like.

* * *

While it remains debatable if this attempt to change the opinions of any of its already left-leaning readers succeeded or was even necessary, some have justifiably wondered whether instead of contemplating a hypotehtical future, it would not have been more prudent to pay closer attention to the just as deplorable present.

Courtesy of ThePeople’sCube, here is the Boston Globe front page that would have been far more appropriate.

Source


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1StroOJ Tyler Durden

Sweden Overwhelmed By ‘Gypsies’ As “Begging Has Become An Occupation”

While Sweden's seemingly self-imposed refugee crisis continues to roil the nation's population, it appears a different and potentially just as problematic social unrest looms. As Gatestone reports, for the last few years, immigration-welcoming Sweden has been overwhelmed with Roma beggars from Romania and Bulgaria who have turned "panhandling into an occupation."

Nobody knows exactly how many of them there are, but The Gatestone Institute's Ingrid Carlqvist reports, Sweden has been overwhelmed with Roma beggars from Romania and Bulgaria. In 2014, the newspaperSydsvenskan reported that an estimated 600 Roma beggars lived in the country; a few months ago, the government-appointed "National Coordinator for Vulnerable EU Citizens," Martin Valfridsson, found that there are now around 4,000.

  • "We do not fool anyone. We just benefit from the opportunity." — Bulgarian beggar in Sweden who said he "owned" five street corners.

  • "If the begging is profitable, they stay miserable…. [Giving money] improves the acute situation. At the same time, it contributes to making the bigger issue permanent — the misery…. It will not help the Roma, but it gives you a chance to feel like a good person. … The basic concept of racism is precisely that we as westerners and Swedes are far superior (smarter) and that the Roma are inferior (dumber). If this… is not racist then I do not know what is. … One could add that the image is inverted among Roma. They consider themselves superior and smart, while the gadjo (non-gypsies) are stupid, naïve and gullible." — Karl-Olov Arnstberg, Swedish ethnologist

  • "It is our very strong recommendation not to give money to beggars. It turns the panhandling into an occupation… To give [money] encourages a life with no future; moving from country to country does not solve their problems." — Florin Ivanovici, director of the Life and Light Foundation, Bucharest, Romania.

You see beggars sitting outside virtually every store, not just in the big cities, but also in small rural villages. In the far north of Sweden, at gas stations in the middle of nowhere, patrons are greeted by beggars saying "Hello, hello!" while holding out their paper cups.

Not long ago, begging was considered eradicated in Sweden. In 1964, the law of 1847 against begging for money was abolished — the welfare state was considered so all-encompassing that there were no longer any poor people; therefore the law was obsolete. No one would ever have to beg anymore. The people who, for some reason, could not work and support themselves were taken care of via various social welfare programs. Swedes who grew up in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s had never seen a street-beggar in Sweden.

Then, suddenly, everything changed. Today, Stockholm, Malmö and Gothenburg are among the cities with the most beggars per-capita in Europe. More and more people feel uneasy about the beggars, who sometimes are even aggressive.

Things started to change in 1995, when a reform of the psychiatric care system led to the closing of psychiatric hospitals and the discharge of patients. People who had been institutionalized for many years were suddenly expected to fend for themselves, with a little help from the government on an outpatient basis. The idea was that it was undignified to keep people locked up in hospitals year after year, but in many instances the alternative turned out to be even worse. Many former psychiatric patients could not manage to cope with daily life outside the hospitals, and ended up as drug-users, homeless and begging on the street.

Ten years later, the real surge of beggars came – Roma people from Romania and Bulgaria flooded into Sweden. Romania and Bulgaria had been granted membership in the European Union, and their citizens could now stay in another EU country for three months. According to the rules, if after three months they have not been able to procure work or begun studying, they are supposed to return home. However, as there are no border controls between Sweden and its immediate neighbors, there is no way of knowing who stays longer than three months.

One of the strongest proponents for granting the Eastern European countries membership in the EU was Sweden's then Prime Minister Göran Persson. When Sweden held the Presidency of the Council of the European Union for the first time (January-June 2001), Mr. Persson lobbied hard for an expansion of the EU. Sweden had three goals: Enlargement, Employment, Environment. These three E's guided the Swedish Presidency.

In 2004, Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Hungary joined the EU. Three years later, so did Bulgaria and Romania.

However, in 2003, it seemed Persson had gotten cold feet, when he realized free movement could also lead to what is referred to as "benefit tourism" — the movement of people from new, poorer, EU member states to existing member states, to benefit from their welfare systems rather than to work. Persson therefore suggested transitional rules, before less affluent countries such as Bulgaria and Romania were allowed to partake of the free movement scheme. In a 2003 interview with Dagens Eko public radio, Persson said: "We want free movement of labor, but not benefit tourism. We must not be naïve there."

Mr. Persson was heavily criticized for this statement, and more or less labeled a racist. In a debate in the Swedish Parliament in early 2004, Agne Hansson of the Center Party (Centerpartiet) said: "Is it not time … to apologize for the rhetoric on benefit tourism and the portrayal of the peoples of the new member states as freeloaders?"

Lars Ohly, then party leader of the Left Party (Vänsterpartiet), said: "We are not going to talk about benefit tourism. We are not going to talk about people in a way that discriminates against them compared to the citizens of the current EU states. That is actually a way of fanning the flames of xenophobia and racism."

A little over a decade later, Göran Persson's prediction has come true. Romanian and Bulgarian beggars are now demanding that their children should be allowed to go to school in Sweden. They also take advantage of Sweden's free healthcare, and some dentists even offer them free dental care. In 2014, an Administrative Court ruled that beggars from Romania are entitled to welfare payments in Sweden.

Still, it is not just the lack of anti-panhandling laws and the abundance of welfare benefits that have made Sweden so popular among Roma beggars — or "vulnerable EU citizens" as they are called in politically-correct Swedish. The Roma soon realized that Swedes feel uneasy when they see poor people, and therefore are very willing to put money in the beggars' cups. A typical Swedish attitude is: "Of course no one would ever degrade themselves willingly by begging from other people, everyone wants to work and support themselves. It is unfair that we have it so good, when they suffer so much."

The problem is that this is simply not true. Begging has for centuries been a completely accepted way of "earning a living" among Roma people, and as the Swedes are so generous, beggars can make much more money in Sweden than working in their home countries.

Swedish ethnologist Karl-Olov Arnstberg has done extensive research into the Roma culture. In a blog post in August 2014, he wrote about how Swedes tend to view the Roma as victims:

"The above 'filter of understanding' is widespread in Sweden, particularly within the power and cultural elites. As an ethnologist and scientist who have studied the Roma, I object. If you ask me, this is a highly ethnocentric view of things, based not just on ignorance, but also on hostility towards knowledge. If I were to use the power and cultural elites' moralizing language — it is also deeply racist. The reason is, that it paints a picture of the Roma as victims. And if there are victims, then there must be perpetrators and the perpetrators are, of course, us.

 

"Maybe not precisely you and I, and not we Swedes, but we are part of a Western civilization that oppresses and discriminates against Roma. Thus, we are served up an image where we (the winners) are far above the Roma down below (the losers). We are better and they are inferior. The basic concept of racism is precisely that we as westerners and Swedes are far superior (smarter) and that the Roma are inferior (dumber). If this train of thought, involving perpetrators and victims, is not racist then I do not know what is. One could add that the image is inverted among Roma. They consider themselves superior and smart, while the gadjo (non-gypsies) are stupid, naïve and gullible."

Arnstberg's analysis is pretty much what the Romanians say, as well. In April 2015, the public television broadcaster Sveriges Television interviewed Florin Ivanovici, director of the relief organization Life and Light Foundation, in the Romanian capital of Bucharest. He said:

"It is our very strong recommendation not to give money to beggars. It turns the panhandling into an occupation; the children at home in Romania are abandoned and often miss school when the parents are away. To give [money] encourages a life with no future; moving from country to country does not solve their problems."

The year before, Ivanovici had visited Stockholm and interviewed his Roma countrymen:

"We interviewed beggars, and almost all of them told us they would rather stay in Romania if they could. Yet many of them claimed that they made about €1,000 (about $1,100) per person a month [from begging in Sweden]. As the average salary in Romania is $450-570 a month, begging in Sweden is more profitable than making a living in Romania."

Many claim that the begging is organized, that gangs recruit beggars in Romania, send them to Sweden, assign them a street corner and then take most of their money. But Ivanovici does not believe this is common: "The Roma live very close together; if someone succeeds in getting €1,000 a month in Stockholm by begging, the news travels fast to their home village. And that prompts more people to go."

Sweden's biggest problem with the begging Roma is where they settle. The Roma park their trailers and put up tents in parks, wooded areas and vacant lots, where they live in utter misery — at least by Swedish standards.

The largest and most talked-about settlement was located in Malmö. In 2013, a group of Roma simply started squatting on a 99,000-square-foot vacant lot in a former industrial area in the center of the city. This was the beginning of a process that would drag on for almost two years, wherein the City of Malmö tried all kinds of measures in order to close down the so-called Sorgenfri Camp.

The lot is owned by a private citizen, who had plans for residential buildings on the property. When the Roma broke into the lot, parked their cars and trailers and built sheds there, the property owner filed a complaint with the police regarding trespassing. In many countries, that would have been the end of the story — the police would simply have removed the squatters, and that would have been that. Not in Sweden.

No matter how illegal a settlement is, in order for people to be evicted, the Enforcement Authority (Kronofogden) needs to know the identity of every person living on the property. As none of the Roma had, or wanted to show, any identification, nothing could be done. To the dismay of many residents of Malmö, the camp grew into a large settlement where more than 200 people lived. There was no running water or sewage system on the property; mountains of garbage and human excrement grew day by day. Finally, these health hazards sealed the camp's fate. Malmö's Environmental Board, in the decision that finally led to the demolition of the camp, wrote in November 2015:

"The Environment Department has already prohibited living on the private lot. The sanitary situation at the location entails serious health hazards for the people living there, and affects the surrounding environment by littering and smoke from open fires, among other things."

At 4 a.m. on November 3, 2015, police entered the camp and, using excavators and boom trucks, tore it down.

By then, many of the Roma had already left, but those who remained marched towards Malmö City Hall to protest the decision. They sat outside for days, camping in front of the building to show their discontent. The Roma protesters were loudly supported by leftist activists, who demanded that the City of Malmö arrange free housing for them. Sanitizing the camp began the day after it was torn down — by municipal staff wearing protective clothing and surgical masks.

"The sanitary conditions have been very poor. It is hard to believe that people actually lived here," Jeanette Silow, the head of Malmö's Department of Environmental Health and Safety, told the daily, Kvällsposten.

Martin Valfridsson, Sweden's "National Coordinator for Vulnerable EU Citizens," presented a report on the Sorgenfri Camp saga, on February 1, 2016. Among Valfridsson's conclusions: Sweden should not assign special locations where the Roma can settle:

"If one makes municipal or private property available, in the end, new problems arise. Society contributes to reinstating the slums we have so diligently worked to root out. If someone chooses to come to Sweden, they must live here in a way that is legal."

Valfridsson also said he did not want to offer schooling for the children of Roma beggars, and urged Swedes not to put money in their cups: "I do not believe that is what helps individuals get out of poverty in the long run. I really do believe that the money is put to better use if you give it to relief organizations in the home countries."

It may sound heartless not to give people seemingly living in downright misery any money, but according to ethnologist Karl-Olov Arnstberg:

"When you leave a contribution in the Roma's paper cups, what you are actually doing is sustaining a situation that we do not find fit for human beings. It bears a strong resemblance to urinating your pants because you are cold. It warms you up a little, but only solves the problem for a moment. Furthermore, if you urinate in your pants often enough, this becomes a 'normal' way of fighting the cold. Yes, I know I am crossing the line with this metaphor, but this is pretty much how it works with the Roma. They will change their economic income pattern only if it becomes absolutely necessary. Plainly put: If the begging is profitable, they stay miserable. Giving them some coins solves the smaller issue — it improves the acute situation. At the same time, it contributes to making the bigger issue permanent — the misery. If you want to perpetuate the Roma's living in misery, you give them nickels and dimes. It will not help the Roma, but it gives you a chance to feel like a good person."

What Valfridsson, the "National Coordinator," actually wants to do about the situation is not quite clear. He mentioned assigning the Stockholm county government the responsibility for gathering regional data on the situation across the country, and setting up an advisory board. Sweden and Romania actually signed a cooperation agreement back in June 2015, stipulating that Sweden will help Romania financially, so the Roma can have a better life there, and thus refrain from traveling to Sweden to beg. A similar agreement was struck with Bulgaria on February 5, 2016.

A few years ago, the Swedish media conveyed the message that the Roma are grossly discriminated against in their home countries, and therefore are forced to come to Sweden and beg. Is it really true that Romania and Bulgaria discriminate against their Roma minorities?

The truth is that in Romania, the Roma have the same right to welfare benefits as all other citizens, but the authorities in this post-communist country hold firmly to the principle that welfare benefits should be a temporary aid, not a lifelong livelihood, and therefore make demands on welfare recipients.

Many also claim that the European Union has made the Roma problem worse. As long as the Iron Curtain divided Europe, neither the Roma nor any other citizens could move to the West. During the communist era, in fact, the Roma made some progress. Their children were forced to go to school by governments, they were provided with modern housing, and required to work. When Eastern Europe rid itself of communism, many countries kept some programs to fight crime and vagrancy among Roma. Families were ordered to send their children to school. Police patrolled Roman areas and clamped down on child marriage, a common occurrence in the Roma culture.

Then came the EU with its mighty representatives, who said: Shame on you; you cannot treat people differently — that is called racism. So Romania had to abandon its programs for the Roma, and since then, child marriage has skyrocketed — from only three married children in 2006 (an all-time low), to over 600 married Roma children in recent years.

The EU also forced Romania to implement a kind of "affirmative action," which gives Roma precedence for jobs, schools, housing and so on. But despite aggressive marketing, the program has not been effective, presumably because of the Roma's reluctance to join in gadjo (non-Roma) activities.

Last year, a Bulgarian news team visited Sweden to film a documentary about the beggars. The footage showed that there are people who actually organize the panhandling; one of them talked openly on camera about being prosecuted for blackmailing a beggar who did not earn him enough money. The man also talked about how he "owned" five street corners in central Gothenburg, and said that the best location was outside Systembolaget (the government-owned liquor store) — where he posted his wife.

Last year, a Bulgarian news team visited Sweden to film a documentary about Roma beggars from Bulgaria and Romania.

The man denied that the beggars themselves worked for him — he claimed they were all part of a Bulgarian team, and split the income between them. His role was just to "protect" them from the Romanian beggars, who, he said, would otherwise "beat up and chase the Bulgarians away." He said that the beggars make about 400-500 kronor ($50-60) a day, and use the money to buy food, beer and cigarettes.

"Is it not fraud," the reporter asked, "to pretend that you are destitute, all the while using the money for beer and cigarettes?"

"No," the man said, "we do not fool anyone. We just benefit from this opportunity."

The charges against him were dropped.


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ECB Scrambles To Calm A Furious Germany: “Helicopter Money Was The Straw That Broke The Camel’s Back”

Over the weekend we reported that in a scathing Spiegel article the German financial media outlet let loose at the ECB with a report according to which Germany is now “taking aim” at the ECB as a result of the imminent launch of Helicopter Money by the Frankfurt-based central bank.

Spiegel even suggested that the German finance ministry would go so far as to sue the ECB to prevent this final monetary paradrop in a desperate attempt to stimulate (hyper)inflation:

Were the ECB, as Draghi has indicated it might, to open the monetary policy gates even wider — with, for example, helicopter money — the German finance minister would view it as a breaking point. Such a policy would see the ECB bypass the banking sector and distribute money directly to companies, consumers or states, all of which would stand in violation of the central bank’s own statutes. Should it come to that, sources in the German Finance Ministry say, Berlin would have to consider taking the ECB to court to clarify the limits of its mandate. In other words: the German government and Draghi’s ECB would be adversaries in a public court case.

 

Such a legal battle between the government and a central bank would be a first in German history. It could lead to a constitutional crisis of unprecedented severity or to currency turbulence — which is why it is extremely improbable that the two sides would allow the conflict to escalate to such a degree.

Just a few hours later Schauble went on the record to deny that the Geran finmin would consider taking legal action if the European Central Bank resorts to “helicopter money” but the damage was already done.

As Reuters follows up today, “almost a month after stoking a divisive debate about how far it should go in pumping money into the flagging euro zone economy, the European Central Bank is trying to soothe relations with Germany after unusually strong criticism from Berlin.

Late last week, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was reported as blaming the ECB’s cheap-money policy in part for the rise of the country’s right-wing anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD).

 

The discussion is likely to continue when ECB President Mario Draghi meets Schaeuble this week in Washington at the International Monetary Fund’s spring gathering of central bankers and ministers from around the world.

 

A storm of protest erupted in thrifty Germany after Draghi last month described the idea of “helicopter money” – sending money directly to citizens – as a “very interesting” – if unexamined – concept.

 

Late last week, top ECB officials, including the ECB’s chief economist and its vice president, backpedalled, saying the idea was not on the table. But the damage had already been done.

Analysts at German banks, those most impacted by Europe’s trillions in negative yieldings loans, were furious. “The ECB’s policy was already unpopular in Germany and the idea of helicopter money was the straw that broke the camel’s back,” said Joerg Kraemer, an economist with Commerzbank in Frankfurt. “People feel that ideas like this are dangerous.”

Others were likewise livid: “We’ve seen most of the impact of QE (Quantitative Easing) last year and there is little more to come,” said Lars Feld, one of the ‘wise men’ that advise the German government on economic policy.

Instead of lower rates, the German government, which is becoming increasingly concerned with the hostility of its savers and insurance companies, is now calling for higher rates: “Higher interest rates would now be good for the profits of banks and insurers and would stop the emergence of property bubbles, such as the one we might see in Germany.”

On Sunday, a number of German politicians criticized the ECB’s stance, with one minister blaming low interest rates for putting a “gaping hole” in pensions, as rumors of possible legal action over helicopter money swirled.

While one can debate how much of Germany’s public stance is posturing, the tide is clearing turning against Draghi in Europe’s most prosperous and powerful nation. And as Reuters adds, this weekend’s scandal marked a new low in the often fraught relations between the euro zone’s biggest country and the central bank’s Italian chief, who has recently bemoaned what he described as the “nein zu allem” (“no to everything”) approach – a swipe at Germany.

It’s not just Germany who is angry though: the discussion about ever wider boundaries of possible ECB action, distracting from the ECB’s 1.7-trillion-euro-plus money printing scheme, also irritated some euro zone central bank governors, a person familiar with the matter said.

The ECB, which for years has struggled to improve its image with a skeptical German public, declined to comment. But many at the ECB resent what they see as unrelenting criticism from German politicians, journalists and economists, who reject the ever more generous measures the ECB is taking to fire up the slow economy.

 

“I think this shooting at the institution, especially in this country, is sometimes difficult to swallow,” Peter Praet, the ECB’s chief economist, told a conference of economists last week in Frankfurt.

 

There seems little prospect, however, of the debate abating ahead of a meeting of the 19 euro zone central bank governors on April 20-21. A spokesman for Schaeuble’s finance ministry described it as a “legitimate discussion”.

 

Others forecast that the idea of sending money directly to Europeans could shadow such gatherings. “It will be hard to get the idea of helicopter money out of people’s heads,” said a euro zone official.

Finally, for all those skeptics who correctly see this as nothing but a made for primetime TV spectacle meant to show how Germany is willing to oppose the former Goldmanite money printer, here is the punchline: “The criticism in Germany is justified but a little dishonest,” said Commerzbank’s Kraemer. “There is no way Schaeuble would be balancing his books were it not for the ECB’s policy.

And this is why, after all the sound and fury dies down, the ECB will proceed with the monetary paradops just as expected. Because, after all, that is what Goldman wants.


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Goldman Slammed With $5.1 Billion Fine For “Serious Misconduct” In Mortgage Selling

Hot on the heels of Wells Fargo's $1.2 billion settlement, Bloomberg reports that Goldman Sachs will pay $5.1 billion to settle a U.S. probe into its handling of mortgage-backed securities involving allegations that loans weren’t properly vetted before being sold to investors as high-quality bonds.

“This resolution holds Goldman Sachs accountable for its serious misconduct in falsely assuring investors that securities it sold were backed by sound mortgages, when it knew that they were full of mortgages that were likely to fail,” said Acting Associate Attorney General Stuart Delery.

As AP reports,

The Justice Department announced a $5 billion settlement with Goldman Sachs over the sale of mortgage-backed securities leading up to the 2008 financial crisis.

 

The deal announced Monday resolves state and federal probes into the sale of shoddy mortgages before the housing bubble and economic meltdown.

 

It requires the bank to pay a $2.4 billion civil penalty and an additional $1.8 billion in relief to underwater homeowners and distressed borrowers, along with $875 million in other claims.

 

The agreement is the latest multi-billion-dollar civil settlement reached with a major bank.

 

Other banks that settled in the last two years include Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

 

Goldman had previously disclosed the settlement in January, but federal officials laid out additional allegations in a statement of facts.

As NY AG Schneiderman notes,

  • Settlement Includes $670 Million For New Yorkers, Including $190 Million In Cash And $480 Million In Consumer Relief Committed To Mortgage Assistance, Principal Forgiveness, And Affordable Housing Programs
  • New York Has Now Received $5.3 Billion In Cash And Consumer Relief From National Mortgage Settlement And Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Working Group Settlements Combined Since 2012
  • Schneiderman: Since 2012, My Number One Priority Has Been Getting New York Families The Resources They Need To Help Rebuild

NEW YORK – Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman today joined members of the state and federal working group he co-chairs to announce a $5 billion settlement with Goldman Sachs over the bank’s deceptive practices leading up to the financial crisis.  The settlement includes $670 million – $480 million worth of creditable consumer relief and $190 million in cash – that will be allocated to New York State. The resolution requires Goldman Sachs to provide significant community-level relief to New Yorkers, including resources that will facilitate a significant expansion of the New York State Mortgage Assistance Program enabling distressed homeowners to restructure their debt, as well as first-lien principal forgiveness, and funds to spur the construction of more affordable housing.  Additional resources will be dedicated to helping communities transform their code enforcement systems, and invest in land banks and land trusts.

The settlement was negotiated through the Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Working Group, a joint state and federal working group formed in 2012 to share resources and continue investigating wrongdoing in the mortgage-backed securities market prior to the financial crisis. 

New York has now received $5.33 billion in cash and consumer relief from the National Mortgage Settlement (NMS) and all five Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Working Group settlements (RMBS). The combined $3.2 billion in cash and consumer relief from RMBS settlements is more than any other state. 

“Since 2012, my number one priority has been getting New Yorkers the resources they need to rebuild,” Attorney General Schneiderman said. “These dollars will immediately go to work funding proven programs and services to help New Yorkers keep their homes and rebuild their communities. We’ve witnessed the incredible impact these programs and services can have in helping communities recover from the financial crisis. This settlement, like those before it, ensures that these critical programs—such as mortgage assistance, principal forgiveness, and code enforcement—will continue to get funded well into the future, and will be paid for by the institutions responsible for the financial crisis.”

The settlement includes an agreed-upon statement of facts that describes how Goldman Sachs made multiple representations to RMBS investors about the quality of the mortgage loans it securitized and sold to investors, its process for screening out questionable loans, and its process for qualifying loan originators.  Contrary to those representations, Goldman Sachs securitized and sold RMBS backed by large numbers of loans from originators whose mortgage loans contained material defects.

In the statement of facts, Goldman Sachs acknowledges that it securitized thousands of Alt-A, and subprime mortgage loans and sold the resulting residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”) to investors for tens of billions of dollars.  During the course of its due diligence process, Goldman Sachs received pertinent information indicating that significant percentages of the loans reviewed did not conform to the representations it made to investors.  Goldman also received and failed to disclose negative information that it obtained regarding the originators’ business practices.  Indeed, Goldman’s due diligence vendors provided Goldman with reports reflecting that the vendors had graded significant numbers and percentages of sampled loans as EV3s, i.e., not in compliance with originator underwriting guidelines.  In certain circumstances, Goldman reevaluated loan grades and directed that such loans be waived into the pools to be purchased or securitized.  

Even when the percentage of problematic loans in pools sampled by it vendors indicated that the unsampled portions of the pools likely contained additional such loans, Goldman typically did not increase the size of the sample or review the unsampled portions of the pools to identify and eliminate any additional such loans.   In many cases, 80 percent or more of the loans in the loan pools Goldman purchased and securitized were not sampled for credit and compliance due diligence.  Nevertheless, Goldman approved various offerings for securitization without requiring further due diligence to determine whether the remaining loans in the deal contained defects.  A Goldman employee overseeing due diligence for a particular loan pool noted that the pool included loans originated with “[e]xtremely aggressive underwriting” and “large program exceptions made without compensating factors.”  Despite this observation, Goldman did not review the remaining portion of the pool, and subsequently securitized thousands of loans from the pool. 

Goldman made statements to investors in offering documents and in certain other marketing materials regarding its process for reviewing and approving originators, yet it failed to disclose  to investors negative information it obtained about mortgage loan originators and its practice of securitizing loans from suspended originators.

Beginning in mid-2006, Goldman recognized that Fremont, a “key originator, was experiencing an increasing level of early payment defaults (“EPDs”) (i.e., loans for which the borrowers had failed to make one or more of their first payments).  Goldman was aware that EPDs were a sign of originators’ bad credit decisions and could be indicators of potential borrower fraud.  However, Goldman did not put Fremont on its “no bid” list and continued to purchase loan pools from Fremont during the period Fremont’s EPD claims remained unpaid.  Moreover, Goldman “[u]ndertook a significant marketing effort” to tell investors about what Goldman called Fremont’s “commitment to loan quality over volume” and “significant enhancements to Fremont underwriting guidelines.”    Likewise, Goldman identified issues with Countrywide’s origination practices.  Goldman’s head of due diligence, when presented with a “very bullish” equity report on Countrywide, another large originator, exclaimed “[i]f they only knew  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .”

Monday’s resolution is the fifth multibillion-dollar settlement reached with U.S. banks resulting from the government’s push to hold Wall Street firms to account for creating and selling subprime mortgage bonds that helped spur the 2008 financial crisis.

As Bloomberg notes, however, other banks, including Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Deutsche Bank AG remain under investigation, people familiar with the matter have said.

 


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Oil Slides After Algeria Oil Minister Admits Russia Refused To Cut Output

First it was the Saudis who said they would not cap oil output unless Iran joins the production freeze, which it won’t. And now, Bloomberg reports citing APS, that Russia was in on the plot to make the Doha meeting a total and complete farce.

  • ALGERIA SAYS DOHA TALKS AIM TO CAP OUTPUT AT JAN. LEVELS: APS
  • ALGERIA’S KHEBRI SAYS SOME OIL PRODUCERS REFUSE OUTPUT CUT: APS
  • ALGERIA OIL MINISTER SAYS RUSSIA REFUSED TO CUT OUTPUT: APS

More details:

Planned April 17 meeting of OPEC, other major producers in Doha, Qatar, aims to reach agreement to freeze oil production at Jan. levels, Algeria’s state-run news agency APS reports, citing Energy Minister Salah Khebri.

 

Meeting “crucial” because if all countries agree to cap production, this will allow oil market to recover gradually

 

“Oil producers don’t want to cut their output. We have already asked for the decrease of production, but some countries have  refused, including non-OPEC members, especially Russia,” Khebri says, according to APS

Which to regular readers should not come as a surprise: recall that as we wrote three weeks ago, What Oil Production Freeze: Russia Just Revealed The Laughable Loophole In The OPEC “Agreement”

Oil algos finally pay attention. And as goes Crude, so goes stocks…


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UK PM David Cameron Explains He Did Not Have Tax Evasion Relations With An Offshore Account – Live Feed

After growing pressure from an increasingly angry populous, Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain speaks to parliament on measures to curb tax evasion after admitting last week that he had profited from an offshore account. Of course, he “did nothing wrong,” but opposition leaders smell the blood in the water so close to the Brexit decision… pushing for an Icelandic end to this controversy.

 


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An Earnings Recession Is Great News For Stocks, No Really: The Media Explains

First, the facts, courtesy of Bloomberg:

 

* * *

This is how Forbes laid out the threat of the Q1 earnings collapse just 4 months ago:

 

Turns out not only was it likely but Q1 earnings are about to plunge the most in 8 years, which means that now that the threat has materialized, it is time for spin. A lot of spin. courtesy of everyone.

First Reuters:

 

Then MarketWatch:

 

Then MarketWatch, again, just in case:

 

And, of course, CNBC:

 

We eagerly look forward to the BTFD “explanations” when the earnings recession becomes an earnings depression.


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