“Hope” Spikes Most Since 2011 As UMich Consumer Confidence Hits 11 Month Highs

Consumer Expectations, according to University of Michigan, soared by the most since Dec 2011 in May’s preliminary data – spiking from 77.6 to 87.5. Despite a modest rise in current confidence, this spike in “hope” was enough to send the headline confidence print to 95.8, 11-month highs and well above expectations of just 89.5. Despite confidence rising, inflation expectations tumbled (1Y from 2.8% to 2.5%).

Hope is not a strategy…

 

Soaring confidence driven by hope…

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This Won’t End Well – Business Inventories Signal Recession Imminent

Autos & parts inventories-to-sales ratios soared to 2.30x from 2.18x – levels that have only been higher during the financial crisis. This, combined with a rise in clothing inventories to sales, held overall business inventories at their highest to sales since the crisis and deep in pre-recessionary territory.

Retail inventories rose 1.0% MoM despite a 0.3% drop in sales (with motor vehicles inventories up 2.3% as sales tumbled 3.2%) leaving the inventories to sales ratio at cycle highs…

 

Simply put, this won’t end well.

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Chinese Commodity Carnage Unwinds Entire Bubble – Steel Futures Crash Most Since 2009

Well that de-escalated quickly…

 

As Reuters reports,

Chinese steel futures were on course for their biggest weekly fall since 2009 on Friday, as a selloff in the country's commodities showed signs of spreading to other global markets for raw materials such as palm oil and base metals.

 

Weakening fundamentals along with strong measures by Chinese exchanges to stamp out speculative activity have helped reverse momentum in China's massive commodity futures markets from bullish to bearish in less than a month.

 

The deepening losses have started to weigh on global markets elsewhere, in a similar manner to the boom and bust cycle in the country's stock markets last year.

This is what government-intervention-driven malinvestment-creating unintended consequences look like…

 

 

 

 

and just consider what signals the rally sent to the world?

 

Rising levels of open interest, or open contracts, in China's steel and iron ore futures, as prices fall deeper suggest investors are looking at more downside risk.

The sentiment is very bearish now, and investors are looking for opportunities to take more short positions," said Wu Wei, an analyst at Yong'an Futures in China's Hangzhou city.

 

The softer outlook for the Chinese economy, rising steel production and waning seasonal demand have fueled the sharp losses in steel-linked futures, said Wu.

 

"We are now kind of at or past the peak in seasonal demand so prices are coming down. And maybe since we overshot on the upside so we can undershoot on the downside," said Ian Roper, commodity strategist at Macquarie.

And with "authoritative persons" now saying no more stimulus, things do not look good for the "china is recovering" narrative…

As we conclude previously, In general, the "anonymous authory"’s main thesis is that China needs to put structural reform on top of investment driven stimulus and control the risk from high leverage.

Say good bye to the aggressive easing in Q1 and China will enter couple quarters’ “reform” period, until the government cannot stand with the pain and has to use “investment driven stimulus” again.

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2008 Bailout Boy Is Back – Kashkari Now Peddling Cheap Debt Toxin From The Fed

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com (h/t David Stockman),

Rubbernecking at the economic train wreck of central planners is not without hazard.  A strained collar and dry eyes, for instance, are common perils.  So, too, is the lasting grimace of disbelief that comes with the rollout of each zany scheme to save us from ourselves.

Etched forehead lines and nighttime bruxism are several of the secondary effects.  Not owning shares of Amazon is another.  Though, over the long term, this will likely be an advantage.

Certainly, gawping at the present execution of monetary and fiscal policy in America is not without some benefit.  A healthy suspicion is garnered of politicians and public officials.  This, at the very least, relieves us from voter’s remorse.  Since we didn’t vote for President Obama we don’t have to live with the soiled conscious that most surely befalls those who made this grave miscalculation.

There’s also the preservation of one’s dignity that comes with the unwillingness to join in on the latest populace fad.  What a crock the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements turned out to be.  Good thing we didn’t make a fool of ourselves diving head long into them.

Naturally, these are just a few of the recognizable remunerations that come with the territory.  There are some other, less obvious ones, too.

For example, one of the unique rewards of being an unremitting gadfly is the curious pleasure that comes when a notable retread bubbles up to the surface at a new post within the ruling class.  There’s a hope and optimism that, perhaps, their prior fall from grace has endowed humility…or, at the very least, some restraint.  Yet this is rarely the case.

Positives for Society

Earlier this week, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari commented that U.S. interest rates are “about right.”  Moreover, Kashkari sees some real positives for society from the Fed’s loose monetary policies.

“To me, just looking at the raw data, it says we should be accommodative, and I think we have this other societal need that we should be accommodative, because if we can keep people from being lost permanently, boy that’s a real positive for society.”

The last time we’d heard from Kashkari was late 2009.  At the time it was he himself who was in danger of being “lost permanently.”  Following his position of federal bailout chief, which primarily consisted of rapidly dispersing Henry Paulson’s $700 billion of TARP funds, he’d suffered a crackup.  In fact, he’d taken to a cabin in the Sierra Nevada Mountains – near Donner Pass – and discovered the meaning of life chopping wood.

After making this graceful exit from public life, what in the world could’ve compelled Kashkari to sign up with the Fed?  We don’t really know for sure.  But based on this week’s comments it appears he thinks he can help people by championing cheap credit.

Regrettably, this goes to show that Kashkari didn’t learn a doggone thing from his time in Washington…scattering tax payer money to the big banks.  If he had, he’d understand that the moral hazard that comes with bailing out bankers perpetuates undue risk and ultimately puts savers and retirees in harm’s way.  He’d also recognize that stretching out the credit market primarily helps investment bankers and corporations; they are the ones who benefit most from borrowing money at an artificial discount.

Even Death Won’t Save Us

But it is Kashkari’s comment that interest rates are “about right” that’s saturated with the most conceit.  Does he know all?  Does he somehow possess the capacity to access and process all the bits of information that millions of buyers and sellers discern subjectively on daily basis?  If one man’s trash is another man’s treasure how can he possibly know what the correct price of anything should be?

Obviously, Kashkari cannot know this.  Neither can Fed Chair Yellen.  Nor the whole cadre of FOMC dot plotters.  Unquestionably, the cost of money is best left to consenting adults to determine on a transaction by transaction basis.

This, no doubt, is the fundamental shortcoming of today’s centrally planned monetary policies.  The consequences, however, are quite staggering.  They’ve pushed public and private debt well past their serviceable limits.  They’ve stretched paper currencies out like Silly Putty and propagated bubbles and busts in real estate, stock markets, emerging markets, mining, oil and gas, and just about every other market there is.

Nonetheless, these officers of the state won’t let it alone.  They may take recluse in the woods from time to time, but they always reappear with more positive offerings for society.  The most successful helpers ascend to the Senate, where they spend the rest of their days running interference as they shuffle money out the back door in overstuffed barrels of pork.

The only thing that stops them is death itself.  But, alas, even death won’t save us.  For there is always a long line of noble fellows, eager to step in and fight the cause.

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Oil “Rebalancing” In Jeopardy After Iran Output Soars To Pre-Sanction Levels, Russia “Pours Cold Water” On OPEC Forecast

Earlier today, the OPEC released its latest monthly forecast which echoed what the IEA said yesterday, as the organization which Roseneft CEO Sechin said has “practically stopped existing“, said shrinking U.S. output and massive cuts to investment in new projects will reduce the global oil glut over the course of this year, potentially pushing world-wide oil production lower than demand in 2017.

In the report, OPEC was eager to call the early demise of its non-OPEC competitors, and predicted that production outside of the (defunct) cartel countries will fall by 740,000 barrels a day from 2015 to 56.4 million barrels a day this year—10,000 barrels a day less than OPEC previously predicted. Most of the decline will stem from cuts that U.S. oil producers are making to cut production that is become unprofitable with the oil-price rout.

OPEC forecast U.S. production this year will fall by 431,000 barrels a day from 2015 to 13.56 million barrels a day. The rest of the predicted non-OPEC decline will come from lower investments and production delays in China, Mexico, the U.K., Kazakhstan and Colombia. Overall, oil companies world-wide will cut their exploration and appraisal investments during 2016, 2017 and 2018 to $40 billion annually, half the average annual spending of 2012 through 2014, the group said.

It said that “outside the U.S., there have been consistent signs of declines in non-OPEC production, which should likely flip the global oil market into a net deficit in 2017.” In other words, OPEC thinks that OPEC’s strategy to cut non-OPEC production is working.  As such, OPEC believes that production by countries outside the cartel will help rebalance a global crude market that is seen prices fall by more than half since 2014, even though OPEC has declined to rein in its own production.

Ironically, as non-OPEC production may (or may not) shrink by 740,000 barrels, Iran alone has already added that amount of production and then some.

As Bloomberg reports, Iran’s crude production has returned to levels last seen before sanctions were imposed over its nuclear program as the nation ramps up output to regain market share, according to the International Energy Agency. Output reached 3.56 million barrels a day in April, the highest since November 2011, and exports soared to 2 million barrels a day, just shy of the level before the trade restrictions. China was the biggest buyer of Iranian crude last month, taking more than 800,000 barrels a day, the IEA said. Indicatively, just a year ago, Iran’s production was 700,000 barrels lower at 2.8 mm b/d.

Meanwhile, the biggest non-OPEC member disagreed with OPEC’s rosy – if only for OPEC countries – assessment, when Russia poured cold water on the notion that recent falls in production in the Americas, Asia and Africa had wiped out a global production and storage overhang.  Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters on Thursday that the global oil surplus stood at 1.5 million bpd and that the market might not balance out until the first half of 2017.

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China Hard Landing Spreads: Hong Kong GDP Tumbles At Fastest Pace Since Financial Crisis

In the latest indication of contracting global growth, overnight Hong Kong reported that its Q1 GDP fell off a cliff 0.4% qoq, widly missing estimates of 0.1% growth as retail sales plummeted and the property market continued its collapse. On a y/y basis, the economy grew only 0.8% when compared to the same period last year, less than half the 1.9% y/y growth reflected in Q4. 

 

Hong Kong’s economy grew only 2.4% in 2015, half the pace of 2011, as a slowdown in mainland China and a weaker yuan curbed Chinese spending, while a volatile stock market also hit domestic consumption.

“At least over the next five to six months, we don’t see any positive growth driver that can help lift GDP growth substantially,” said Raymond Yeung, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong.

“Hong Kong’s economy is facing myriad headwinds, including an increasingly acute residential property price correction and significant linkages with the slowing Chinese economy,” said Andrew Wood, head of Asia country risk at BCI research. He added that “while we do not envisage the economy tipping into full-scale recession in 2016, the risks of such an event are rising.”

We, on the other hand, envisage the Hong Kong economy tipping into a recession, as we have since early 2016.

One ddriver for the weakness is that Hong Kong’s tourist arrivals dropped 20.5% in February, and slid 4.3% from a year earlier to 4.21 million in March. Mainland visitors, which accounted for 72 percent of the total, fell 6.9% to 3.02 million, perhaps the best indication of just how pressured the Chinese consumer truly is.

Kelvin Lau, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong, told Reuters that “given its highly open nature, Hong Kong was not insulated from these external headwinds, which weighed on consumer and investor sentiment,” he said.

We noted the epic retail sales collapsed in March, which according to a MasterCard survey contracted 18.5% on a year over year basis, and marked the thirteenth straight month of declines according to Bloomberg.

Regarding the property market, we’ve covered its spectacular collapse in detail, and as Kyle Bass summarizes in explaining the property market’s free fall: “Hong Kong’s in a worse position than it was in prior to the ’97 crisis today.” Apartment prices are down by 12% from a September high and accelerating lower, while investment banks predict a further 20 percent decline in coming months. Property sales tumbled to a 25-year low in February as prices continued to slide. The number of the city’s homeowners with apartments worth less than their mortgages soared 15 times in the first quarter, according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

While headlines may read that Hong Kong’s economic contraction was “unexpected”, it was certainly anything but. As we’ve said before, given what we’re seeing in Hong Kong, one can only imagine what the true conditions are in mainland China.


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Despite Retailers Slashing Guidance, April Retail Sales Soar Most In 13 Months

Following March's plunge in retail sales (dragging YoY to just +1.6% – recessionary territory) as Auto sales tumbled, April retail sales printed a large 1.3% surge (versus expectations of a 0.8% rise). This is the 3rd biggest MoM rise since 2010, which is odd given the utter collapse in retailers earnings and most crucially outlooks! Soaring gas prices helped but auto sales rebounded as did Amazon non-store retailers.

 

 

YoY bounced to +3.0%, but remains near recessionary territory…

 

The breakdown shows that auto sales and gas sales surged

 

This is now being spiun as the beginning of a new trend. We shall see.

Chart: Bloomberg

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Jon Stewart Just Slammed Hillary Clinton (And The Mainstream Media Ignored It)

Submitted by Claire Bernish via TheAntiMedia.org,

While it’s hardly shocking that mainstream media targeted Jon Stewart’s latest jab – in which he described Donald Trump as a “man-baby” – the mainstream media establishment mouthpiece virtually ignored his lambasting of Hillary Clinton.

“What I think about Hillary Clinton is, you know … I imagine [her] to be a very bright woman … without the courage of her convictions — ‘cause I’m not even sure what they are,” Stewart told David Axelrod for his podcast, The Axe, to which the audience erupted in applause.

Though the slam represented more than corporate media has managed thus far during the former secretary of state’s troubled run for the presidency, Jon Stewart took the description to a hilarious next level. For reference, Magic Johnson once had a talk show that ultimately failed because … well … witness Stewart’s comparison of Johson to Hillary:

Magic Johnson was a charming individual, but he wasn’t a talk show host … so, he would sit and he would go, [Stewart affected a flat tone here] ‘Uh, my first guest tonight … my first guest tonight is [with lots of enthusiasm] CHER, everybody!’ But he never seemed authentic and real to his personality. It seemed like he was wearing an outfit designed by someone else for someone else to be someone else, and that is not to say that [Clinton] is not preferable to Donald Trump — because at this point, I would vote for Mr. T over Donald Trump. But I think she will be in big trouble if she can’t find a way, and maybe I’m wrong. Maybe a real person doesn’t exist underneath there. I don’t know.

Axelrod then asked the former host of the Daily Show about Clinton’s appearance as a guest — and the criticism continued:

What was that like?” Axelrod inquired about the former secretary’s interview.

“Really cool,” Stewart deadpanned. “It’s — look, there are politicians who are either rendering their inauthenticity in real enough time to appear authentic, and then their are politicians who render their inauthenticity through — it’s like, when your computer … if you have a Mac and you want to play a Microsoft game on it …”

AXELROD: Yes, yes.

STEWART: … and there’s that weird lag.

AXELROD: Yes. No, I mean …

STEWART: That’s Hillary Clinton.

AXELROD: … that’s a big problem. There’s like a seven-second delay and all the words come out in a perfectly …

STEWART: Right.

AXELROD: … politically calibrated sentence.

STEWART: Right. Now, what gives me hope in that is that there’s a delay, which means she’s somehow fighting something. I’ve seen politicians who don’t have that delay and render their inauthenticity in real time, and that’s when you go, ‘That’s a sociopath.’

So, there you have it. Jon Stewart described Hillary Clinton as inauthentic and not bold enough to follow through on issues she stridently touts — but stopped just short of calling the presidential hopeful a ‘sociopath.’

For the full podcast, visit this link.

 

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IMF Forecasts 83% Decline of Venezuela’s Bolivar by Year’s End

In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) told us that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate would hit 720 percent by the end of the year. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which was published in April, stuck with the 720 percent inflation forecast. What the IMF failed to do is tell us how they arrived at the forecast. Never mind. The press has repeated the 720 percent inflation forecast ad nauseam.

Since the IMF’s 720 percent forecast has been elevated to the status of a factoid, it is worth a bit of reflection and analysis. We can reverse engineer the IMF’s inflation forecast to determine the bolivar-greenback exchange rate implied by the inflation forecast.

When we conduct that exercise, we calculate that the VEF/USD rate moves from today’s black market (read: free market) rate of 1,110 to 6,699 by year’s end. So, the IMF is forecasting that the bolivar will shed 83 percent of its current value against the greenback by New Year’s Day, 2017. The following chart shows the dramatic plunge anticipated by the IMF.

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Gundlach: “I See The S&P Going To 1600”, Bashes Hillary Clinton

In what is now a weekly tradition for the new bond king, overnight DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach spoke to Reuters’ Jenn Ablan following his periodic investor conference call, to discuss such things as the Fed’s rate hike, on which he remains understandably skeptical and said the Fed will be “challenged” to raise interest rates this year.  Specifically he said that there appears to be “some (hawkish) rebellion showing up at the Fed.” This came following the latest statement by Kansas City Fed President and noted hawk, Esther George, who  said on Thursday that the Fed is keeping interest rates too low and risks encouraging companies to take on excessive amounts of debt.

 

As a reminder, George was the sole dissenter to the April FOMC decision to keep rates at 0.25%, which means other “hawks” have yet to build up the courage to even voice a minority opinion, “hawks” such as Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren who also yesterday said the economy appears to be strengthening after the sluggish first quarter, giving the green light for the central bank to continue its attempt to normalize interest-rate policy. We doubt he will dissent when the Fed again does nothing next month.

Which is why only the opinion of Yellen, who to Gundlach is “the biggest dove” at the Federal Reserve, matters and why Gundlach believes there is a 50% chance of only one rate hike this year.

More importantly, Gundlach told Reuters that the with the S&P500 rangebound around 2,050 for some time, “it’s tough to get much of a rally off of price-to-earnings this high with earnings falling and the Fed itching to tighten with GDP growth already projected to decline,” he said.

In keeping with his recent skepticism, he said that his forecast on the market remains a gloomy one: “I’m sticking with my ‘2 percent upside and 20 downside’ prediction on U.S. stocks…. it’s working, I can see it going to 1,600.”

It is unclear if Gundlach is as, less, or more bearish than fellow billionaire Carl Icahn, whose IEP recently revealed it had a record -149% net short exposure to the market.

 

Gundlach, a prominent critic of NIRP, also said that negative interest rates are backfiring, most notably in Japan, something which even Kuroda has figured out by now.

Ironically, in a letter to Rep. Brad Sherman, Yellen said on Thursday that while she “would not completely rule out the use of negative interest rates in some future very adverse scenario,” the tool would need a lot more study before it could be used in the United States.

If the Fed were to implement negative rates, Gundlach said, “I am not sure what I am going to do… But I don’t think it will happen.”

Considering the accuracy of the Fed’s forecasts in the past decade, NIRP in the US is guaranteed, which is why the 10Y yield continues to drift ever lower even as the Fed’s jawboning for future growth hits a crescendo.

Going back to a topic he first revealed on this website several weeks ago, namely his presidential pick, Gundlach said presumed Republican candidate Donald Trump will win. He said Trump has been underestimated for months, but he is the “better campaigner.”

“People are going to start putting greater focus on Hillary (Clinton). Voters are going to say, ‘No. I don’t want this,'” he told Reuters. “Hillary is going to evolve into an unacceptable choice. If she is such a great candidate, how come (Bernie Sanders) is beating her?”

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