Bloomberg reports Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Britain’s biggest government-owned lender, is on track for its largest pretax loss since 2008 after setting aside 3.1 billion pounds more ($5.1 billion) for legal and compensation claims. We will delve into this report in detail, but first a little background so we’re all viewing 20/20.

I’ve been spending a lot of time rebuilding the banking system as software over a cryptocurrency framework. Basically, I’m building a more efficient, more “Trustworthy” financial system. Many are doubtful of these endeavors. I say, don’t underestimate the effort. For one, a more efficient, more trustworthy system is sorely needed. Here we are, 7 years after the start of the great financial trainwreck that I’m known for predicting, and I’m still at it doing the same thing to the same industry. This is only possible when there’s a structural problem in the industry. A problem that rapid advancements in technology are ripe to solve.

On Thursday, 11 April 2013 I penned, I Illustrate How The Irish Banking Cancer Spreads To The UK Taxpayer And Metastasizes Through US Markets! wherein I clearly illustrated that RBS is materially understating its liabilities AND even went so far as to include links to the SEC and the UK banking regulator so that US/UK taxpayers and investors can notify our erstwhile regulator(s) to the potential of financial shenanigans. The root of the problem is that RBS has materially under-reported its liabilities (in my oh so humble opinion.) Those that stress tested RBS (the same erstwhile professionals that allowed the Irish banks to pass their stress tests 3 months before they started collapsing) apparently overlooked humongous swaths of liabilities. 

The amount of evidence that I produced to back my claims was prodigous…

What happened behind closed doors?

Ulster Bank gave a first floating charge in favor of the Central Bank of Ireland (an arm of the European Central Bank) and the Financial Services Authority of Ireland. U.S. investors would have had to rely on the contents of The Royal Bank of Scotland’s 2008 Annual Accounts which apparently (in my opinion) concealed the existence of the CRO registered charges to the Bank of Ireland.

 >Ulster Bank RBS charge doc 2 Page 1

Now, back to the Bloomberg article…

The provision includes 1.9 billion pounds for lawsuits and fines tied mostly to the sale of $91 billion of mortgage-backed securities from 2005 to 2007, the lender said yesterday. It follows agreements Deutsche Bank AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG (UBSN) struck with U.S. regulators to settle claims they didn’t provide adequate disclosure about mortgage-backed debt sold in the housing bubble that preceded the 2008 financial crisis.

Are they referring to claims similar to the ones I made that RBS  bought Ulster Bank full of unrecognized mortgage crap, levered up off it and hid the debt? I strongly suggest my readers brush up on how The Irish Banking Cancer Spreads to the UK.

More than five years after giving RBS the biggest bank bailout in history, the government still hasn’t been able to cut its 80 percent stake.

… “When the crisis broke, the bank was involved in a number of different businesses in multiple countries that have subsequently faced heavy scrutiny by customers and regulators,” McEwan, 56, said in yesterday’s statement. “The scale of the bad decisions during that period means that some problems are still just emerging.”

… The charges led the bank to cut its forecast for its core Tier 1 capital ratio, a measure of financial strength. RBS expects the ratio will be about 11 percent at the end of 2013, or as much as 8.5 percent under the latest rules set by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. That’s down from the company’s estimate of 11.6 percent and 9.1 percent in November.

“Fronting up to our past mistakes is very expensive, but RBS is a much stronger bank that can deal with these costs on its own while running a good capital position,” McEwan said on the call. “Dealing with these litigation and conduct issues is essential if we are to move the bank forward.”

Well, I still haven’t noticed them come clean on the Ulster Bank charge issue. If they really are going to “Front[ing] up… past mistakes” then they really need to address this, no? If the Ulster Bank charges are included in the Basel capitalization guidelines, then RBS needs a bailout, and needs one Now! It doesn’t end their though. On Monday, 20 May 2013 I queried Who is RBS? Royal BS… or the Royal Bank of Scotland, to wit:

“An independent Scotland would have an exceptionally large banking sector compared to the size of its economy – with banking assets of more than 1250 percent of Scottish [gross domestic product] – making it more vulnerable to financial shocks and the volatility of the sector,” the Treasury report said on Monday.

The report pointed out Scotland’s banking exposure would dwarf that of Iceland and Cyprus, two countries that faced severe banking collapses in recent years. Iceland’s banks, for example, had assets equivalent to 880 per cent of GDP, while Cyprus, which faced a banking crisis in March, had total banking assets of around 700 per cent of GDP.

The report as cited by the article then goes on to make more direct comparisons to Cyprus, not unlike I did two months ago, but with Ireland (see As Forewarned, The Irish Savers Have Just Been “Cyprus’d”, And There’s MUCH MORE “Cyprusing” To Come). 

“At the end of September 2012, the two largest banks – the Cyprus Popular Bank and Bank of Cyprus – had assets in the region of 210 per cent and 175 per cent of Cyprus’s GDP respectively.”

“It is worth noting that, if Scotland became independent, its banking sector would be similarly concentrated (with two large players, Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank of Scotland and a number of smaller firms), and that an independent Scotland’s domestic banking sector would be likely to be significantly larger than that of Cyprus (assuming no change to firms’ domicile arrangements).”

I penned, I Illustrate How The Irish Banking Cancer Spreads To The UK Taxpayer And Metastasizes Through US Markets! wherein I clearly illustrated that RBS is materially understating its liabilities AND even went so far as to include links to the SEC and the UK banking regulator so that US/UK taxpayers and investors can notify our erstwhile regulator(s) to the potential of financial shenanigans. The root of the problem is that RBS has materially under-reported its liabilities (in my oh so humble opinion.) Those that stress tested RBS (the same erstwhile professionals that allowed the Irish banks to pass their stress tests 3 months before they started collapsing) apparently overlooked humongous swaths of liabilities. The charge documents referred to in the aforelinked article are definitively not apparent in the recent bank stress testing’ conducted by the European Banking Authority, at least not in the summary results that the EBA have made available. For those who are still skeptical, I beg thee reference the RBS Stress Test download.

To think, there are actually many who query as to why I seek to make a more efficient financial system…

With the latest advances in technology, I can literally replace large swaths of bank functions with software. Software that doesn’t lie, cheat, steal, or screw you for a bonus! Zero Trust software…

page-0page-1page-2;”>page-3page-4page-5

If the RBS/Ulster Bank mortgage-backed secutities would have been traded through UltraCoin, rehyppthecation, double-spending, over-leverage, and thrice pledged assets would have been a thing of the past. These contracts are overollateralized (200%) and use no leverage, yet still hold the promise of significant return, not to mention a mere fraction of the cost of the big bank stuff. Will the dawn of this technology herald the end of fractional reserve banking as we know it?

Let it be known, Wall Street banks’ profit margin IS my business model!!!

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/MkNxnQ Reggie Middleton

We are sure it’s just a storm in a teacup; just a brief interlude before the IMF’s ever-changing forecast for global trade growth picks right back up again and demand to ship dry goods surges back to the inventory stuffed levels of Q4. But, for now, the Baltic Dry Index (admired when it’s rising, ignored when it drops) has collapsed by over 50% from its December highs and is back to August lows.

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/MkNwAm Tyler Durden

Moments ago UPS did what almost every other company so far in this, and prior, earnings seasons has done: posted unimpressive earnings (EPS of $1.25 meeting expectations), while missing revenues, with Q4 sales of $15.0 billion below expectations of $15.2 billion. We already know the explanation – as the company preannounced, the “only reason” its business slowed down in Q4 was due to a… surge in business surrounding the holidays for which the management was unprepared, because apparently the UPS C-suite was unaware how to read a calendar. And, most expectedly, to offset all the bad news, UPS announced it would continue doing what all companies facing a slowing economy do: not invest in Capex while buying back another $2.7 billion in shares in 2014.

But the point of this post is not to spread UPS earnings, but to highlight the biggest cyclical failure of the Bernanke era – one we first highlighted two years ago – when we observed that in the new normal, companies invest not in CapEx but in dividends and buybacks, seeking to appease short-term activist investors while leaving the long-term future of the company flailing in the wind. So here it is, from the earnings release:

For the year ended Dec. 31, UPS generated $5.3 billion in free cash flow, producing a net income-to-cash conversion ratio of more than 120%. The company paid dividends of $2.3 billion, an increase of nearly 9% per share over the prior year, and repurchased more than 43 million shares for approximately $3.8 billion.

This free cash flow is the result of $7.3 billion in cash from operations, from which $2.1 billion in CapEx was reduced.

In short here is how UPS allocated all of its created capital in 2013:

• $3.8 billion in Buybacks
• $2.3 billion in dividends
• $2.1 billion in CapEx

Here is the advice for the central planners: until the bullets above read CapEx 100% of capital allocation with buybacks and dividends get 0%, the economy will not improve, period.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/MkNwjE Tyler Durden

Moments ago UPS did what almost every other company so far in this, and prior, earnings seasons has done: posted unimpressive earnings (EPS of $1.25 meeting expectations), while missing revenues, with Q4 sales of $15.0 billion below expectations of $15.2 billion. We already know the explanation – as the company preannounced, the “only reason” its business slowed down in Q4 was due to a… surge in business surrounding the holidays for which the management was unprepared, because apparently the UPS C-suite was unaware how to read a calendar. And, most expectedly, to offset all the bad news, UPS announced it would continue doing what all companies facing a slowing economy do: not invest in Capex while buying back another $2.7 billion in shares in 2014.

But the point of this post is not to spread UPS earnings, but to highlight the biggest cyclical failure of the Bernanke era – one we first highlighted two years ago – when we observed that in the new normal, companies invest not in CapEx but in dividends and buybacks, seeking to appease short-term activist investors while leaving the long-term future of the company flailing in the wind. So here it is, from the earnings release:

For the year ended Dec. 31, UPS generated $5.3 billion in free cash flow, producing a net income-to-cash conversion ratio of more than 120%. The company paid dividends of $2.3 billion, an increase of nearly 9% per share over the prior year, and repurchased more than 43 million shares for approximately $3.8 billion.

This free cash flow is the result of $7.3 billion in cash from operations, from which $2.1 billion in CapEx was reduced.

In short here is how UPS allocated all of its created capital in 2013:

• $3.8 billion in Buybacks
• $2.3 billion in dividends
• $2.1 billion in CapEx

Here is the advice for the central planners: until the bullets above read CapEx 100% of capital allocation with buybacks and dividends get 0%, the economy will not improve, period.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/MkNwjE Tyler Durden

• Only time will define Bernanke’s crisis-era legacy at Fed (Reuters)
• Record Cash Leaves Emerging Market ETFs (BBG)
• Investors Look Toward Safer Options as Ground Shifts (WSJ)
• Fed Policy Makers Rally Behind Tapering QE as Yellen Era Begins (BBG)
• Rating agencies criticise China’s bailout of failed $500m trust (FT)
• Russia to await new Ukraine government before fully implementing rescue (Reuters)
• U.S. readies financial sanctions against Ukraine: congressional aides (Reuters)
• Companies resist president’s call for minimum wage rise (FT)
• Secret Swiss Funds at Risk as Italy’s Saccomanni Visits Bern (BBG)
• Top Democrat puts Obama trade deals in doubt (FT)
• Erdogan to Give Rate Increase Time Before Trying Other Plans (BBG)
• Bernanke Memorable Moments From AIG Anger to Dimon Encounter (BBG)
• Capital controls not on agenda in Turkey: senior government official (Reuters) – translation – the opposite
• Wall Street Attracts Chop Shops 20 Years After ‘Wolf’ (BBG)
• Deutsche Bank suspends currency trader (DB)
• Deadly ice storm turns Atlanta into parking lot (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* Just one month into 2014, investors from Illinois to Istanbul are finding the tide going out fast for stocks and other riskier investments.

* U.S. stocks have started the year with a thud. What’s interesting, though, isn’t that stocks are down but that the declines are coming so grudgingly.

* Google’s experiment making Motorola phones has ended after just 22 months, with the company unloading the handset business to China’s Lenovo Group for $2.91 billion but keeping a valuable trove of patents.

* The hackers who stole 40 million credit and debit card numbers from Target Corp appear to have breached the discounter’s systems by using electronic credentials stolen from a vendor.

* Amazon.com plans to offer brick-and-mortar retailers a checkout system that uses Kindle tablets as soon as this summer.

* Blackstone Group’s chairman has made clear to senior executives that 43-year-old real-estate specialist Jonathan Gray is the front-runner should the current president depart within the next few years.

* How do the details of a family tragedy land on a piece of junk mail? Most likely from a customer service representative who feeds data to information brokers electronically compiling and selling information.

* Federal regulators are set to take a step Thursday toward retiring the existing landline telephone system in favor of a new, digital-based network.

* Bill Gross, the biggest and one of the most influential fixed-income managers in the world, is ceding some of his power to six new deputies at Pacific Investment Management Co (Pimco) as part of the biggest change in its leadership in more than five years. The move follows last week’s announcement that Pimco’s high-profile chief executive and co-chief investment officer, Mohamed El-Erian, would leave in mid-March.

* Starbucks Corp said Chief Executive Howard Schultz will expand his role in product innovation and digital retailing as part of a shuffling of senior executives aimed largely at adjusting to technology-driven shifts in its industry.

* Outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will provide testimony after he leaves office in a lawsuit filed against the federal government over the 2008 bailout of American International Group Inc, according to a person involved in the case.

 

FT

The International Energy Agency has warned that escalated gas and electricity prices in Europe would slash its global market share of energy-related exports to two-thirds for at least the next 20 years.

The British Prime Minister may not receive the support of French President Francois Hollande on any renegotiation talks of the EU founding treaty before a referendum on UK’s membership in the European Union.

The helicopter unit of Finmeccanica, AgustaWestland, has won two contracts from Britain’s Ministry of Defence worth a total of 760 million pounds ($1.26 billion) in a move that will protect around 1,000 jobs south of England.

The biggest UK businesses paid more in national insurance than corporation taxes, which fell one-fourth to 6 billion pounds last year.

Deutsche Bank cut pay in its corporate banking and securities division to 5.3 billion euros last year, down 14.4 percent from 2012, the bank’s two chief executives said on Wednesday.

 

NYT

* Though not a total financial loss, the announced sale of the Motorola Mobility unit for $2.91 billion to Lenovo Group Ltd , less than two years after Google paid $12.5 billion for it, is a sign of fits and starts at the company in the mobile age.

* Banks have begun selling bonds backed by foreclosed homes turned into rentals in the United States, bringing calls for Congress to look into the deals.

* In a unanimous decision, the Federal Reserve said it would pull back on its stimulus program by another $10 billion, pointing to an improving economy that had “picked up in recent quarters.”

* The House of Representatives on Wednesday passed a bill authorizing nearly $1 trillion in spending on farm subsidies and nutrition programs, setting the stage for final passage of a new five-year farm bill that has been stalled for more than two years.

* China’s role as the largest buyer of a long list of commodities means that emerging markets are heavily exposed to any economic slowdown, but the most vulnerable producers may be the mines and farms in China itself.

* In the fourth quarter of 2013, 53 percent of Facebook’s advertising revenue came from pitches delivered to iPads, smartphones and other mobile devices, with many of those ads highly targeted by gender, age and other demographics.

* The Washington Post has significantly increased its budget and plans to make dozens of newsroom hires under its new owner, the Amazon founder Jeffrey P. Bezos, the paper’s executive editor, Marty Baron, said in an interview on Wednesday.

* Law enforcement officials testified on Wednesday that virtual currencies like Bitcoin have opened up new avenues for crime that government has not been able to keep up with.

* The European Union on Wednesday revealed a long-awaited proposal to reduce the systemic risk posed by big banks, a measure that would bring the bloc’s regulations more closely into line with those of the United States. But it is unlikely to become law anytime soon.

* Faced with growing criticism and lawsuits, an oil industry task force representing hundreds of companies in North Dakota pledged on Wednesday to make an all-out effort to capture almost all the natural gas that is being flared in the Bakken shale oil field by the end of the decade.

* Attorney General Eric Holder said Wednesday that the Justice Department was committed to finding the hackers behind the holiday season theft of credit card data from millions of Target customers. The same day, Target said that hackers were able to get into the company’s system using a vendor’s credentials.

* After doubling over the last year, Boeing’s stock dropped 5.3 percent on Wednesday when the plane maker projected flattening profits in 2014.

* Making good on a State of the Union address promise, President Obama on Wednesday ordered the creation of new employer-sponsored savings accounts intended to help more people get started saving for retirement.

* Axa Equitable is taking an ax to its name, trimming it to Axa so it will conform in the United States with the France-based company’s brand elsewhere. The new name is on display in a campaign that Axa is ready to introduce to American consumers.

* Billionaire investor Steven Cohen kept one of his closest associates at SAC Capital Advisors in the dark about the hedge fund’s rapid selling of a substantial stock position in two drug companies – Elan and Wyeth, just days before the companies reported disappointing results of a clinical trial for an Alzheimer’s drug.

* Citigroup said internally on Wednesday that it was making an effort to improve the lives of the analysts and associates in its investment bank, the two lowest employee levels in that division. Those junior bankers are now encouraged to stay out of the office from 10 pm on Friday through 10 am on Sunday. Citigroup also said on Wednesday that junior bankers were expected to take all of their annual vacation days.

* The Brazilian bank Itaú Unibanco has acquired a controlling stake in the Chilean bank CorpBanca, a move that follows its growing ambitions to expand in Latin America.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Several prisoners shattered the teeth and broke the leg of Rob Ford’s estranged brother-in-law in a jailhouse beating that was intended to keep him quiet about the Toronto mayor’s abuse of alcohol and illegal drugs, it has been alleged in a lawsuit. (http://ift.tt/1a3xGot)

* On Wednesday night, 19-year-old Justin Bieber turned himself in at a Toronto police station and was charged with assault in connection with an attack on a local limousine driver. (http://ift.tt/1d9ZfHK)

Reports in the business section:

* Hunter Harrison’s first full year in charge of Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd brought a record annual profit, and the aggressive CEO has set a goal of boosting earnings by 30 percent in 2014. (http://ift.tt/1a3xGov)

* The Federal Reserve opted to stick with its plan to slowly wind down its stimulus program, a move that added anxiety to investors already rattled by turmoil in emerging markets. (http://ift.tt/1d9ZfHO)

NATIONAL POST

* Meredith Borowiec, a resident of Calgary who left three of her children in a dumpster, killing two, was sentenced to 18 months in jail on Wednesday. The mother of four left her first born in a dumpster next to her Calgary home. A second baby born a year later was similarly discarded. Neither body was ever found. Her third child was born in October, 2010. Borowiec, again, hid the child in the trash. But this time, the infant was rescued after its cries were overheard. (http://ift.tt/1a3xGVI)

FINANCIAL POST

* Sears Canada is laying off 624 employees, the second time in as many weeks the struggling retailer has announced cost-saving cuts to its workforce. (http://ift.tt/1d9Zi6y)

* After burning through his last set of aggressive objectives about two years ahead of schedule, Hunter Harrison said Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd needs a new five-year plan. The pace of change implemented at the railway is a victory over Harrison’s detractors, who said his plans for CP were unrealistic, and a vindication for Bill Ackman, whose Pershing Square Capital Management waged a messy battle to see Harrison instated as CEO nearly two years ago. (http://ift.tt/1a3xGox)

 

Britain

The Telegraph

RBS FACES 1,000 COMPLAINTS ABOUT ITS ‘MORALLY WRONG’ RESTRUCTURING DIVISION

Lawrence Tomlinson told the Treasury Select Committee that his “dossier” of complaints against RBS’s restructuring division has vastly expanded since he published his report last year. More than 1,000 companies have come forward with allegations of “morally wrong” treatment at the hands of the Royal Bank of Scotland’s restructuring division, MPs have been told.

BANK OF ENGLAND BLOCKS SANTANDER’S CHOICE FOR RISK ROLE

The Bank of England has blocked Santander UK’s plans to hand its incoming deputy chief executive responsibility for risk management. The British arm of the Spanish lender has been forced to rethink its appointment of Nathan Bostock, currently finance director of Royal Bank of Scotland, to the joint role of deputy chief executive and chief risk officer.

The Guardian

VINCE CABLE CONFRONTS LLOYDS OVER STAFF CUTS IN COMMERCIAL BANKING

Vince Cable is demanding an urgent meeting with the boss of Lloyds Banking Group after the bailed-out bank made deep cuts to the number of its small business experts. The business secretary wrote to António Horta-Osório on Wednesday night after Lloyds said half the relationship managers handling small business queries that their roles were being made redundant as part of a long-running strategic review.

UK HOUSE PRICES START YEAR WITH A BANG, FUELLED BY FIRST-TIME BUYERS

The return of first time buyers to Britain’s housing market helped push prices almost 9 percent higher in the year to January, according to the country’s biggest building society Nationwide, adding more than 14,000 pounds to the price of a typical home.

The Times

JUSTIN KING STANDS DOWN AFTER DECADE OF SUCCESS AS SAINSBURY’S CHIEF

Justin King put an end to months of speculation over his future at J Sainsbury and announced his departure, marking the end of a decade that has transformed the fortunes of Britain’s second-biggest grocer.

ANGLO AMERICAN STRENGTHENED BY IRON ORE BOUNCE

A surprise bounce in iron ore production at Anglo American has raised hopes for a turnaround under its new chief executive. The FTSE 100 miner was also buoyed by copper production hitting a quarterly record, which helped to send shares up 77 pence, or 5.7 per cent, to 14.20½ pounds.

Sky News

REGULATOR THREATENS RBS CHIEF’S ROLE AT RIVAL

The appointment of Royal Bank of Scotland’s finance director to a dual role at rival Santander UK was in jeopardy on Wednesday after banking regulators raised concerns about the move. Sky News can reveal that the Prudential Regulation Authority has expressed serious doubts about Nathan Bostock’s appointment to the Spanish-owned bank as deputy chief executive and chief risk officer.

CARNEY WARNS OF RISKS OF SCOTS INDEPENDENCE

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned of “clear risks” associated with the economics of Scottish independence, adding that the country would have to surrender some of its sovereignty if it were to retain the pound.

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Jobless claims for the week of Jan. 25 will be reported at 8:30–consensus 327K
Q4 GDP will be reported at 8:30–consensus 3.0% growth for the quarter
Pending home sales index for December will be reported at 10:00—consensus down 0.5%

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Amdocs (DOX) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer
Autodesk (ADSK) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Canadian Pacific (CP) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen
Cathay General (CATY) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
Citrix (CTXS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Drexel Hamilton
Enduro Royalty Trust (NDRO) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital
Enersis (ENI) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
JetBlue (JBLU) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Modine Manufacturing (MOD) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan
PTC Inc. (PTC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Sequans (SQNS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
ServiceNow (NOW) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Spectra Energy (SE) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
StanCorp Financial (SFG) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill
Union Pacific (UNP) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities
WellPoint (WLP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
WesBanco (WSBC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim

Downgrades

Blackbaud (BLKB) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Citrix (CTXS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham
Citrix (CTXS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Citrix (CTXS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
Citrix (CTXS) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest
Citrix (CTXS) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities
Denbury Resources (DNR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
EMC (EMC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho
El Paso Pipeline (EPB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
McCormick (MKC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
NeuStar (NSR) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette
Praxair (PX) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
SS&C Technologies (SSNC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Synopsys (SNPS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Tractor Supply (TSCO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Tractor Supply (TSCO) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Triumph Group (TGI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee
W. R. Berkley (WRB) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank

Initiations

Energy XXI (EXXI) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
Kosmos (KOS) initiated with a Buy at Goldman
Spansion (CODE) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley
W&T Offshore (WTI) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
inContact (SAAS) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer

HOT STOCKS

Lenovo Group (LNVGY) to acquire Motorola Mobility from Google (GOOG) for $2.91B
Potash (POT) CEO said Q4 was “difficult,” challenging fertilizer market conditions impacted Q4 performance
Starbucks (SBUX) CFO Troy Alstead promoted to COO
Oramed (ORMP) said Phase 2a ORMD-0801 study met all primary, secondary endpoints
Dassault to acquire Accelrys (ACCL) for $12.50 per share in merger valued at $750M
Time Warner Cable (TWC) increased quarterly dividend by 15% to 75c

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Helmerich & Payne (HP), Ball Corp. (BLL), Enterprise Products (EPD), MEDNAX (MD), Time Warner Cable (TWC), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Arkansas Best (ABFS), Cabot (CBT), QLogic (QLGC), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Facebook (FB), Allegiant Travel (ALGT), Hanesbrands (HBI), QIAGEN (QGEN), Silicon Graphics (SGI), Spectrum Brands (SPB), Symantec (SYMC), Qualcomm (QCOM)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
WESCO (WCC), Whirlpool (WHR), Potash (POT), Murphy Oil (MUR), Callaway Golf (ELY), Vertex (VRTX)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Destination Maternity (DEST), Kirby (KEX), Quantum (QTM), Fortune Brands (FBHS), ServiceNow (NOW)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

DOJ says BP (BP) should remain barred from U.S. contracts, Telegraph reports
Microsoft (MSFT) could announce new CEO by end of the week, Re/code reports
For Google (GOOG), keeping patents key to Motorola (LNVGY), Samsung  (SSNLF) deals, Bloomberg reports
EU court adviser: MasterCard (MA) should lose card fees appeal, Bloomberg reports
Deutsche Bank (DB) said to suspend NY EM forex desk head, Reuters reports
UBS (UBS) hired by Bright House as adviser amid TWC (TWC) deal speculation, WSJ reports
Oracle (ORCL) CEO says database not breached, Reuters reports
Amazon (AMZN) planning to offer retailers a Kindle checkout system, WSJ reports
Shell (RDS.A) to suspend drilling in U.S. Arctic, WSJ reports
Stolen vendor credentials led to Target (TGT) hacking, WSJ reports

SYNDICATE

Celladon (CLDN) 5.5M share IPO priced at $8.00
Dicerna (DRNA) 6M share IPO priced at $15.00
Geron (GERN) files to sell common stock
Media General (MEG) files to sell 58.54M shares of voting stock for holders
Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) files to sell $115M of common stock
Southcross Energy Partners (SXE) files to sell 8M common units
TESARO (TSRO) 3.2M share Secondary priced at $31.50

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/Mz19g3 Tyler Durden

Yesterday’s epic failure of central bank intervention when both Turkey and South Africa hiked rates only to see their currency initially bounce then collapse, is long forgotten, and early today, the USDTRY once again traded to the rather unstable level of 2.30 and threatened with yet another rout, before verbal intervention out of Russia managed to soothe nerves on edge around the EM world. What followed out of Turkey, however, was an epic verbal diarrhea from both the government and the central bank, which firmly proves the nation on the Bosphorus truly has no idea what it is doing. Here is the evidence.

First, here is the Finance Minister desperate to repreise Rahm Emanuel.

• SIMSEK SAYS TURKEY ‘WON’T WASTE THIS CRISIS’
• WE’LL TURN THIS CRISIS INTO AN OPPORTUNITY,’ SIMSEK SAYS

Next, some deep thoughts on capital flows

• SIMSEK: TURKEY SAW INFLOWS, NOT OUTFLOWS IN LATEST PERIOD
• SIMSEK: I BELIEVE WE WON’T SEE OUTFLOWS THIS YEAR
• SIMSEK: BUT WE ALSO HAVE TO ATTRACT CAPITAL

Next – a spirited defense of government policies

• SIMSEK SAYS ERDOGAN IS MISUNDERSTOOD ON INTEREST RATES LOBBY
• SIMSEK SAYS TURKEY’S INTEREST LOBBY TALK NOT ANTI-INVESTOR
• SIMSEK SAYS TURKEY GOVT PLANNING MEASURES ON CORRUPTION

A glimpse of Plan B thru Z, promising there will be no capital controls. Translation: by the time all is said and done, there will be capital controls.

• TURKEY WON’T RESTRICT CAPITAL MOVEMENTS, FINANCE MINISTER SAYS
• TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT USE OF FISCAL POLICY FOR SHOCKS: SIMSEK
• TURKEY HAS ROOM ON FISCAL POLICY TO DEAL WITH SHOCKS: SIMSEK
• IMPORTANT WHETHER TURKEY RATE INCREASE TO LAST OR NOT: SIMSEK

Finally, here is the central bank itself confirming nobody in Turkey has any idea what is going on

• TURKEY BANK: TIGHT POLICY SHOULD DETER INFLATION EST WORSENING
• TURKEY CENBANK SAYS INFLATION SEEN REACHING 5% TARGET MID-2015
• TURKEY BANK SAYS CURRENT STANCE ENOUGH TO ANCHOR INFLATION ESTS
• TURKEY BANK SAYS WON’T TOLERATE PRICE STABILITY DETERIORATION
• TURKEY CENBANK: FX MOVES RAISED ABOVE-TARGET INFLATION RISK
• TURKEY FLOATING RATE REGIME NOT BEING DEBATED, SIMSEK SAYS

Source: Bloomberg

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And so following yet another Fed taper, coupled with another disappointing manufacturing data point out of China, emerging markets did their thing first thing this morning and all the most unstable EM currency pairs – the TRY, the RUB, the ZAR and the HUF – all plunged promptly in the process pushing down the USDJPY which as become a natural carry offset to EM troubles, only to rebound promptly. Specifically, USDTRY blew out 400 pips to 2.3010 highs after which it bounced, and has now stabilized around 2.27, well above the Turkish central bank intervention level, USDZAR is back down to 11.2120 after hitting five-year highs of 11.3850, the Ruble also plunged after which it jumped on speculation of Russian central bank intervention, while futures are tracking even the tiniest moves by USDJPY and pushing the Emini which is trading in a liquidity vaccum by a quarter point for ever 2 or pips. And with all news overnight shifting from bad to worse (keep an eye on declining German inflation now) it goes without saying, that EM central banks around the world now are desperately trying to keep their currencies under control: which is why the market’s jitteryness is only set to increase from here on out.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus will be on whether there is any more follow through to what we saw yesterday in EM. That aside we have a number of important data releases today starting with the German inflation and unemployment report for January as well as Spanish Q4 GDP. The ECB will publish its Bank Lending Survey. In the US, the advanced estimate of Q4 GDP will be the main focus where the estimate is for an annual QoQ print of 3.2%. Today is one of the busiest days on the corporate reporting calendar with 10% of the S&P500 provide earnings updates, including Exxon Mobil and Google which are the second and third largest companies by market cap.

Market recap from RanSquawk:

Concerns over EM remained at the forefront this morning, with TRY, ZAR bid vs. USD and EUR/HUF at its 2y high, as market participants digested the release of less than impressive macroeconomic data from China, as well as yesterday’s decision by the FOMC to taper QE by USD 10bln. As a result, firmer USD, together with softer inflation data from German states meant that EUR/USD remained under pressure since the EU open. At the same time, worse than expected money supply and mortgage approvals data from the UK, together with touted month-end buying of EUR/GBP weighed on GBP/USD, which trades in close proximity to the 50DMA line.  The risk averse sentiment, as well as month-end buying supported Bunds, while USTs continue to underperform as market participants adjust their Fed Fund expectations following yesterday FOMC decision. Going forward, focus turn to the advanced GDP report from the US, 5y and 7y auctions by the US Treasury and earnings by Exxon, Google and 3M.

Overnight headline bulletin from Ran abnd Bloomberg:

• Initial weakness in EM currencies was reversed after Russian central bank verbally intervened to support RUB, which filtered through into other EMFX.
• Bunds outperformed USTs throughout the session, supported by soft inflation data from Germany, general risk averse tone amid concerns over EM and also touted month-end buying.
• The Nikkei 225 index fell over 2% as risk averse sentiment following the FOMC supported the bid tone in JGBs, weaker than expected macroeconomic data from China also weighed on sentiment.
• Treasuries decline, paring advance that yesterday drove 10Y yield to lowest close since Nov.; week’s auctions conclude today with $35b 5Y (WI 1.565% vs 1.60% stopout in Dec.) and $29b 7Y (WI 2.19% vs. 2.385% last month).
• A Chinese Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49.5 from 50.5 in Dec., HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said in a statement today, the first contraction in six months and below the median 49.6 estimate in a Bloomberg News survey
• German unemployment fell by 28k to 2.93m, more than forecast;  jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 6.8 percent, unchanged from a revised December figure and matching the lowest rate in at least two decades
• New Zealand’s central bank said it intends to start raising borrowing costs “soon” as the economy strengthens. The currency fell as markets had priced in about a 50% chance of a rate increase today
• Even as he calls income inequality the “defining challenge of our time,” Obama is pursuing new trade agreements that some of his political allies say will only make the problem worse
• Ukraine’s president quashed a demand to unconditionally pardon protesters calling for his resignation, prolonging the country’s political crisis after Russia threatened to withhold aid
• Sovereign yields mostly lower; exceptions include Ireland, Greece, Spain and the U.S.; EU peripheral spreads widen. Asian equity markets slide, European  markets fall, U.S. stock-index futures slightly higher. WTI crude higher, gold and copper lower

Asian Headlines

The Nikkei 225 index fell over 2% as risk averse sentiment following the FOMC supported the bid tone in JGBs, in turn encouraging bull flattening of the JPY swaps curve. Yet another less than impressive macroeconomic data release from China – Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jan) M/M 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 50.5) – further weighed on sentiment.

Analysts at HSBC said that a soft start to china’s manufacturing sectors in 2014 was partly due to weaker new export orders and slower domestic business activities during January. While analysts at Credit Suisse have cut their Chinese Q1 GDP growth target to 7.3% from 7.7%. (RTRS/Credit Suisse)

EU & UK Headlines

Bunds outperformed USTs throughout the session, supported by soft inflation data from Germany, general risk averse tone amid concerns over EM and also touted month-end buying.
German CPI Saxony (Jan) M/M -0.5% (Prev. 0.4%)
German CPI Bavaria (Jan) M/M -0.7% (Prev. 0.5%)
German CPI North Rhine Westphalia (Jan) M/M -0.6% (Prev. 0.5%)
German CPI Baden Wuerttemberg (Jan) M/M -0.6% vs Prev. 0.3%
German Unemployment Change (000’s) (Jan) M/M -28K vs. Exp. -5K (Prev. -15K, Rev. -19k)
German Unemployment Rate (Jan) M/M 6.8% vs Exp. 6.9% (Prev. 6.9%, Rev. 6.8%)
Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jan F) M/M -11.7 vs Exp. -11.7 (Prev. -11.7)
Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (Jan) M/M 0.19 vs Exp. 0.35 (Prev. 0.27, Rev. 0.20)
Italian bond auction results: Sells EUR 7bln vs. Exp. EUR 7bln 2019 and 2024 BTP and Sell EUR 1.46bln vs. Exp EUR 1.5bln in 2018 FRN.
– Sells EUR 4bln 2.5% 2019, b/c 1.49 (prev. 1.28), avg. yield 2.43% (prev. 2.71%)
– Sells EUR 3bln 4.5% 2024, b/c 1.32 (prev. 1.34), avg. yield 3.81% (prev. 4.11%)
– Sells EUR 1.46bln 2018 FRN, b/c 2.84, avg. yield 1.79% (Prev. 2.11%)
UK Mortgage Approvals (Dec) M/M 71.6K vs. Exp. 72.9K (Prev. 70.8K)
UK M4 Money Supply (Dec) M/M -1.4% vs Prev. 0.0% (Rev. 0.1%) – biggest decline for 17 years and second biggest in the last 30 years.
Barclays preliminary pan-Euro agg month-end extensions: +0.13y (12m avg. +0.07y)
Barclays preliminary Sterling month-end extensions:+0.19y (12m avg. +0.06y)

US Headlines

Fed watcher Hilsenrath said the Fed sets the bar for change in taper plan continuing to reduce bond buying by USD 10bln a month. He added that the Fed does not see recent emerging market turmoil as impediment to tapering. (WSJ)

JP Morgan forecast 10yr US yields at 3.6% by the end of 2014, with the S&P 500 climbing to 2,000. (JP Morgan)
Barclays preliminary US Tsys month-end extensions:+0.06y (12m avg. +0.07y)

Equities

Heading into the North American open, stocks in Europe are seen somewhat mixed, with FTSE-MIB and IBEX-35 index outperforming on the back of stocks specific news flow. Overall, risk averse sentiment following yesterday’s FOMC decision and concerns over further capital flight from EM weighed on investor appetite for stocks. Of note, German listed fertilizer manufacturer K+S shares fell 2.7% after Potash Corp, the world’s largest potash producer, gave downbeat guidance for the next quarter.

HSBC shares were temporarily halted, with the spike higher of almost 10% being attributed to a fat finger trade, before resuming trade.

FX

EUR came under broad based selling pressure amid a firmer USD and also softer than expected German states CPI, which raised prospect of further policy easing by the ECB. In turn this resulted in bull flattening of the Euribor curve, with EONIA 1y1y rate also underpressure. Elsewhere, lower than expected M4 money supply, which also marked its the biggest decline for 17 years and second biggest in the last 30 years, together with touted month-end buying of EUR/GBP by EU sovereign name weighed on GBP/USD.

In EM space, EMFX reversed initial weakness after Russian central bank verbally intervened to support RUB. However earlier in the session, EUR/HUF traded at its highest level in over 2y, while USD/TRY traded pre interest rate hike levels. RBNZ kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.50% as expected, however NZD/USD fell as there were outside bets of a rate hike (3/15 analysts) (BBG)

Commodities

ABN AMRO Brent crude forecast raised by 5.3% to USD 100/bbl and Brent-WTI spread forecast to narrow to USD 5/bbl this year. (BBG)

China gold demand seen resilient in 2014 and imports seen above 1,300 tons in 2013, according to CNC’s Na Liu. (BBG)

Japanese copper and brass output will cross 800,000 tonnes in 2014, according to the JCBA. (MetalBulletin)

 

* * *

We conclude as always with Jim Reid’s overnight recap

Emerging market jitters returned in force yesterday, with a $10bn Fed taper and a disappointing Chinese HSBC PMI merely adding to the gloom. Overnight the final Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI for January printed at 49.5, confirming the first sub-50.0 reading in seven months. Recall that the preliminary reading was 49.6 and much of the sequential drop was blamed on a government clampdown on polluting industries during the winter months and an emphasis on anti-corruption efforts in the lead up to the Lunar New Year. Already a couple of banks have downgraded their Q1 Chinese GDP estimates in response to the PMI and it seems that the market sentiment on Chinese growth has yet to find a bottom despite some recent better news on the country’s shadow banking system. The official Chinese PMI reading is due early on Saturday morning (London Time) and the expectation there is for the index to fall to 50.5 from 51.0 in December, which would also be the lowest print in seven months.

Following yesterday’s EM performance, Asian assets are once again being sold off overnight across credit, FX and equities. Losses in equities are being led by the Nikkei (-2.8%) which broke through the 15,000 level. Japanese exporters are underperforming on the back of USDJPY losing another 0.1% overnight following a 0.6% drop on Wednesday. Asian equities touched a session low shortly after the release of the Chinese PMI but the reaction to the data itself was only mildly negative. In credit, the high beta sovereigns including Indonesia have seen their CDS widen by 16bp and Asian IG spreads are about 5-6bp wider on the day. Asian EMFX bellwethers such as the Indonesian rupiah (-0.4%), Korean won (-1%) and Malaysian ringgit (-0.3%) are all struggling against the dollar – though these moves pale in comparison the ones we’ve witnessed in other EM jurisdictions such as in LATAM in recent days. AUDUSD fell about a quarter of a percent post-PMI but has pared back most of those losses. Much of Asia shuts down for the week today for Lunar New Year celebrations and will only begin to gradually from Tuesday next week.

Bernanke’s final FOMC ended on a rather quiet note and there were no real surprises in terms of policy or the Fed’s post-FOMC statement. The reaction to policy statement was fairly subdued with 10yr UST yields ticking down slightly (-7bp on the day at 2.67%) while US credit & equities continued to pull back. In terms of the FOMC itself, DB’s Peter Hooper summed it up succinctly by saying that the FOMC sounded slightly more upbeat about recent economic news, tapered another $10 bn on schedule, left thresholds untouched, and there were no dissents. They acknowledged the stronger pace of growth in H2 last year (specifically in household and business spending), but also observed the mixed picture in labor markets (an allusion to the weak payroll number in December). The FOMC statement did not specifically mention the recent volatility in EM.

The risk reversal that began early in the European session took many by surprise, and investors began questioning whether the hikes from the CBRT and SARB would improve or worsen the growth/inflation dynamic. The ruble (-0.7%), which has now depreciated for 13 straight days, weakened to a five year low thanks in part to Russian Finance Minister Siluanov’s comment that “Russia should not follow the suit of some emerging markets in an attempt to slow rapid depreciation of their currencies”. Following a 6% intraday peak to trough depreciation in the TRY, Turkey’s PM Erdogan said he would give some time for recent rate hikes to succeed before potentially trying alternative measures that he said are ready to be deployed. Erdogan said the government may announce its “Plan B” in a few weeks but didn’t offer much detail on what it entailed. DM credit traded in a massive range yesterday, with the European iTraxx printing as low as 76bp in the morning, and as wide as 85bp in the afternoon for an intraday range of 9bp. The S&P500 (-1.0%) traded down to its 100 day moving average for the fourth time since June 2013.

There was some positive news flow amongst the doom and gloom. A comfortable earnings and revenue beat from Dow Chemical saw the stock rise 3.8% and the chemical sector proved to be one of the only sectors which traded firmer yesterday. The company reported robust demand for its agricultural products and its plastics division appeared to benefit from the abundant supply of gas in North America. The only other sector to trade in positive territory was gold mining (+0.85%), thanks to a 0.84% increase in the gold price as markets sought safe havens. Facebook’s earnings-beat saw the stock trade up almost 12% in extended hours trading. The jump in advertising revenues was quite large (+63%) and the company seemed to convince many that its transition to mobile was progressing well with the majority of advertising revenue in the quarter coming from mobile.

With Bernanke’s final day at the Fed tomorrow, and a number of media outlets publishing a review of Bernanke’s time at the helm, there was an interesting poll published by Gallup that suggested that public opinion was divided on Bernanke’s time as Fed Chairman. The poll, which was conducted on January 25th to 26th, showed that the percentage of respondents approving of Bernanke’s chairmanship was 40%, which is 25 percentage points lower than Alan Greenspan’s approval rating in a similar Gallup poll conducted in Jan2006 in the final days of Greenspan’s tenure. The poll also showed that Bernanke’s disapproval rating of 35% is 14 percentage points higher than that of Greenspan’s 21%. Perhaps it’s unsurprising, but the majority of Republicans respondents disapproved of Bernanke’s Chairmanship (53%) while only 19% of Democrats felt the same way. In terms of income, those with an annual household income of $90,000 or higher showed the greatest approval rating for Bernanke (54%) versus only 34% of households with income less than $24,000.

It’s also worth highlighting that the percentage of respondents with “no opinion” of Bernanke’s tenure was as high as one-in-four (25%) which is 11 percentage points higher than those with no opinion in Greenspan’s poll (14%) – this is despite Bernanke’s Chairmanship spanning the turbulent years of the global financial crisis, the introduction of ZIRP and the subsequent years of QE.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus will be on whether there is any more follow through to what we saw yesterday in EM. That aside we have a number of important data releases today starting with the German inflation and unemployment report for January as well as Spanish Q4 GDP. The ECB will publish its Bank Lending Survey. In the US, the advanced estimate of Q4 GDP will be the main focus where the estimate is for an annual QoQ print of 3.2% (DB is top of the market at 4.0%). Today is one of the busiest days on the corporate reporting calendar with 10% of the S&P500 provide earnings updates, including Exxon Mobil and Google which are the second and third largest companies by market cap.

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The Queen’s finances are at a “historic low” with just £1 million ($1.9 million) left in reserve, British MPs have been told.
Her courtiers have been advised to take money-saving tips from the Treasury.

Read more: http://ift.tt/1b94IyO…

 

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Recovery indeed…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1iNyGQH williambanzai7

Submitted by Zachary Zeck via The Diplomat,

The prominent realist international relations scholar John Mearsheimer says there is a greater possibility of the U.S. and China going to war in the future than there was of a Soviet-NATO general war during the Cold War.

Mearsheimer made the comments at a lunch hosted by the Center for the National Interest in Washington, DC on Monday. The lunch was held to discuss Mearsheimer’s recent article in The National Interest on U.S. foreign policy towards the Middle East. However, much of the conversation during the Q&A session focused on U.S. policy towards Asia amid China’s rise, a topic that Mearsheimer addresses in greater length in the updated edition of his classic treatise, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, which is due out this April.

In contrast to the Middle East, which he characterizes as posing little threat to the United States, Mearsheimer said that the U.S. will face a tremendous challenge in Asia should China continue to rise economically. The University of Chicago professor said that in such a scenario it is inevitable that the U.S. and China will engage in an intense strategic competition, much like the Soviet-American rivalry during the Cold War.

While stressing that he didn’t believe a shooting war between the U.S. and China is inevitable, Mearsheimer said that he believes a U.S.-China Cold War will be much less stable than the previous American-Soviet one. His reasoning was based on geography and its interaction with nuclear weapons.

Specifically, the center of gravity of the U.S.-Soviet competition was the central European landmass. This created a rather stable situation as, according to Mearsheimer, anyone that war gamed a NATO-Warsaw conflict over Central Europe understood that it would quickly turn nuclear. This gave both sides a powerful incentive to avoid a general conflict in Central Europe as a nuclear war would make it very likely that both the U.S. and Soviet Union would be “vaporized.”

The U.S.-China strategic rivalry lacks this singular center of gravity. Instead, Mearsheimer identified four potential hotspots over which he believes the U.S. and China might find themselves at war: the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait and the South and East China Seas. Besides featuring more hotspots than the U.S.-Soviet conflict, Mearsheimer implied that he felt that decision-makers in Beijing and Washington might be more confident that they could engage in a shooting war over one of these areas without it escalating to the nuclear threshold.

For instance, he singled out the Sino-Japanese dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, of which he said there was a very real possibility that Japan and China could find themselves in a shooting war sometime in the next five years. Should a shooting war break out between China and Japan in the East China Sea, Mearsheimer said he believes the U.S. will have two options: first, to act  as an umpire in trying to separate the two sides and return to the status quo ante; second, to enter the conflict on the side of Japan.

Mearsheimer said that he thinks it’s more likely the U.S. would opt for the second option because a failure to do so would weaken U.S. credibility in the eyes of its Asian allies. In particular, he believes that America trying to act as a mediator would badly undermine Japanese and South Korean policymakers’ faith in America’s extended deterrence. Since the U.S. does not want Japan or South Korea to build their own nuclear weapons, Washington would be hesitant to not come out decisively on the side of the Japanese in any war between Tokyo and Beijing.

Mearsheimer did add that the U.S. is in the early stages of dealing with a rising China, and the full threat would not materialize for at least another ten years. He also stressed that his arguments assumed that China will be able to maintain rapid economic growth. Were China’s growth rates to streamline or even turn negative, then the U.S. would remain the preponderant power in the world and actually see its relative power grow through 2050.

In characteristically blunt fashion, Mearsheimer said that he hopes that China’s economy falters or collapses, as this would eliminate a potentially immense security threat for the United States and its allies. Indeed, Mearsheimer said he was flabbergasted by Americans and people in allied states who profess wanting to see China continue to grow economically. He reminded the audience that at the peak of its power the Soviet Union possessed a much smaller GDP than the United States. Given that China has a population size over four times larger than America’s, should it reach a GDP per capita that is comparable to Taiwan or Hong Kong today, it will be a greater potential threat to the United States than anything America has previously dealt with.

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Investors in China have been running scared of a default on a high risk trust product; but, as Bloomberg's Tom Orlik notes, they should embrace it. The implicit guarantee that no investments will go sour is one of the key problems with China’s financial system as Orlik adds it encourages reckless lending often to borrowers whose only merit lies in backing from a deep-pocketed government. Crucially, as JPMorgan warns in a recent note, "avoiding defaults is not the right answer, as it will only delay or even amplify the problem in the future."

A default that encourages lenders to price in risk would be a positive development and the CEG#1 was an ideal product to 'fail' with its 11% yield and clear idiosyncratic company problems. However, regulators won't have to wait long for a second chance as JPM warns "There will be a default in China’s shadow banking industry this year as economic growth momentum slows."

 

Via Bloomberg's Tom Orlik,

Investors Should Embrace Defaults in China’s Fragile Financial System

 

…

 

In the years before the 2008 financial crisis, nominal growth outstripped the lending rate. Outstanding credit relative to GDP was low, keeping a lid on the burden of repayment. Against that backdrop, most borrowers were able to cover their costs and the chances of a default were low.

 

 

The situation today is different. Nominal growth has more than halved to 9 percent in 2013 from close to 23 percent in 2007.

 

Borrowers from trusts and other parts of the shadow financial system face interest rates in excess of 20 percent. An explosion in lending has increased the burden of repayment to more than 30 percent at the end of 2013 from about 19 percent of GDP at the end of 2008.

 

Lower growth, higher borrowing costs and mounting repayment costs mean defaults by borrowers and even bankruptcy at some small lenders are likely. After initial turmoil, that could actually be beneficial.

 

…

And JPMorgan adds:

• China may narrowly escaped the first default in its shadow banking industry
• Absence of default has become a major market distortion
• The challenge is to contain the contagion risk if a default happens

 

…local media reported that the China Credit Trust has reached a last-minute agreement with investors, with all principal and most accrued interest to be repaid. That means China will again narrowly escaped the first default in its shadow banking. However, the worries remain.

 

The absence of default has become a major distortion in China’s shadow banking, and we believe that default will happen in 2014 amid economic slowing. The concern is that, if a default occurs, whether investors will walk away and put the whole shadow banking market into a liquidity-driven credit crisis.

But contagion is possible…

The concern about the contagion risk is not groundless. In the past several years, non-bank financing (or the so-called shadow banking) has grown rapidly.

 

We estimate that the gross amount (i.e. with possible overlapping among sub-components) of non-bank financing in China reached RMB 36 trillion by the end of 2012 (or nearly 70% of GDP), compared to RMB 18.3 trillion in 2010 (or 46% of GDP).

 

Non-bank financing continued to grow fast in 2013. An update of our estimate suggests that nonbank financing has further increased to RMB 46.7 trillion by September 2013 (or 84% of GDP). The increase was most dramatic for trust assets (an increase of RMB 2.66 trillion in the first nine months of 2013), wealth management products (an increase of RMB 2.82 trillion), entrust loans (an increase of RMB 1.8 trillion) and bank-security channel business (i.e. banks use security firms as a channel to extend loans, which more than doubled in the first three quarters in 2013 and reached RMB 2.79 trillion).

 

 

The rapid growth in non-bank financing activities, especially for trust loans, WMPs and banksecurity channel business, has been driven by the perception of implicit guarantee from product issuers and distributors. The absence of default confirmed such perception.

 

…

 

In addition, there is substantial overlap between interbank assets and other components, for instance WMPs investing on interbank assets or claims on trust assets being traded in interbank markets. Nonetheless, banks are closely connected to shadow banking activities, hence possible turbulence in shadow banking will also affect the banking system.

We believe that default will happen in 2014 as the growth momentum slows down, and it will help restore market discipline and mitigate the moral hazard problem in the long run. However, the challenge is how to contain the near-term negative impact, as there could be three possible outcomes (in the order of increasing severity) if a default occurs.

The first possibility is that it is perceived as an idiosyncratic event, i.e. no spillover at all. This is the least likely outcome.

 

The second possibility is that the contagion risk is contained within a manageable level, i.e. only to similar products or sectors. For instance, if "Credit equals Gold No 1" defaults, investors will move away from collectively trust products that are only sold to wealthy individuals (but not affecting WMPs that are sold to retails investors); investors will worry about the credit quality of similar loans (non-SOE borrowers in mining industry), but not spillover to other products (e.g. local government debt, real estate companies and SOEs); investors question about the safety of trust companies but not banks. We can call it "limited spillover".

 

The third possibility is a “systemic spillover”. In a mild scenario, it will affect the vulnerable components such as trust loans (48% of trust AUM), WMP investment on non-standard credit products (estimated to be 35-50% of total WMPs) and bank-security channel business. In a worse scenario, it will affect the whole trust industry, WMPs and channel business (with a total gross size of RMB 23 trillion). Rollover of trust products (we estimate 30-35% trust products will mature in 2014) and WMP (64% WMPs has maturity less than 3 months) becomes extremely difficult. The liquidity stress could evolve into a full-blown credit crisis.

What can the government do? In our view, avoiding defaults is not the right answer, as it will only delay or even amplify the problem in the future. Meantime, there are measures the government can take to contain the contagion risk.

First, let defaults happen but establish a transparent legal process (rather than under-table arrangements) to resolve the dispute between different parties.

 

Second, regulators should tighten supervisory and regulatory framework to contain regulatory arbitrage activities, and clarify the responsibilities in various shadow banking products. The uncertainty in regulatory and legal responsibility behind each product is an important caveat in the market, and could amplify the contagion risk.

 

Third, impose hard budget constraints on local governments and SOEs, so as to avoid crowding out of credit to other business borrowers and establish risk-based pricing practices.

 

Finally, avoid defaults that could be easily linked to systemic concerns, such as the default of banks (rather than non-bank financial institutions as the perception of government protection on banks is stronger) or local government financial vehicles or SOEs. Similarly, the default of a WMP could have a bigger impact than a trust product, as the latter does not have maturity mismatch problem and are sold to wealthy individuals rather than retail investors. In that sense, China may miss an "ideal” first default if “Credit Equals Gold No 1” gets bailed out.

Investors in China have been running scared of a default on a high risk trust product; but, as Bloomberg's Tom Orlik notes, they should embrace it.

And they are going to get a chance again soon as there are considerably more of these maturing in the next quarter…

 

Perhaps that is why 3mo SHIBOR has been rising 9 days in a row…

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