Category: zerohedge

With unemployment stuck at record highs and loan delinquencies surging (as we discussed here, here and here), it is hardly surprising that El Economista reports that more than two-thirds of Spaniards do not believe the “recovery” promised by Prime Minister Rajoy has been created. While Cramer ignorantly confidently espoused this morning that Spain is recovering (and with Spanish stocks and bonds back near pre-crisis levels), a massive 75% of the Spanish people believe their personal situation will be the same or worse in 2014.

 

 

Via El Economista (Google Translate),

The Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, and closed over the 2013 promising that the new year would be the “economic recovery”…. More than two thirds of the Spanish population momentum promised by the leader of the executive is not created.

 

This emerges from a survey released Wednesday by the newspaper El Mundo… a mere 17% trust the recovery next year and 8% estimated that recovery has actually happened in the latter part of 2013.

 

Curious that, in this study by Sigma Dos, to the Popular Party voters distrust the information provided by the Government. 47% of respondents who said they voted in the party believe that the dominant trend for next year is pessimistic and start putting the recovery in 2015.

 

For other years, the hunch of Spanish has gotten worse. If a year ago 30% of Spaniards saw in 2014 the year of recovery, now that number is down to 17% already cited.

 

With regard to the personal situation of respondents, only 20% believe their life from the economic point of view better. 75% believe it will do the same or worse.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/I7edYieJNms/story01.htm Tyler Durden

With unemployment stuck at record highs and loan delinquencies surging (as we discussed here, here and here), it is hardly surprising that El Economista reports that more than two-thirds of Spaniards do not believe the “recovery” promised by Prime Minister Rajoy has been created. While Cramer ignorantly confidently espoused this morning that Spain is recovering (and with Spanish stocks and bonds back near pre-crisis levels), a massive 75% of the Spanish people believe their personal situation will be the same or worse in 2014.

 

 

Via El Economista (Google Translate),

The Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, and closed over the 2013 promising that the new year would be the “economic recovery”…. More than two thirds of the Spanish population momentum promised by the leader of the executive is not created.

 

This emerges from a survey released Wednesday by the newspaper El Mundo… a mere 17% trust the recovery next year and 8% estimated that recovery has actually happened in the latter part of 2013.

 

Curious that, in this study by Sigma Dos, to the Popular Party voters distrust the information provided by the Government. 47% of respondents who said they voted in the party believe that the dominant trend for next year is pessimistic and start putting the recovery in 2015.

 

For other years, the hunch of Spanish has gotten worse. If a year ago 30% of Spaniards saw in 2014 the year of recovery, now that number is down to 17% already cited.

 

With regard to the personal situation of respondents, only 20% believe their life from the economic point of view better. 75% believe it will do the same or worse.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/I7edYieJNms/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Moments ago, GM, now fully non-government backstopped (and perhaps because of), reported adjusted US vehicle sales of 230,157, a decline of 6.3% from the 245,733 cars delivered a year earlier, on expectations of a 1.5% increase in sales. As Kurt McNeil, VP of US sales, announced ““December started a little slow but sales were stronger later in the month, especially in the week between Christmas and New Year’s. We didn’t make any big changes to our ‘go-to-market’ strategy during the month, which is to offer competitive incentives and market aggressively, and we are carrying good momentum heading into January.” GM also was quick to put blame on wintry weather in December – fear not though, they won’t be the last. It was unclear just how substantial GM’s incentives were in a month in which below margin inventory liquidation was the name of the game for all retailers: we expect to learn soon.

Still, despite the weak December, GM did report a 7.3% increase in total 2013 sales, which rose from 2.6 million to 2.786 million sales, although judging by the weak end of year performance, many prospective buyers may have tapped out their government-funded car loans, which as we reported a month ago, represented together with student loans some 99% of all loan issuance in the past year!

The full breakdown of GM’s December car sales can be seen below: of note – the surge in Corvette sales, which GM said had its best December sales since 2006. Perhaps less exciting was the 9.2% Y/Y drop in Volt sales. Are Americans losing their fascination with electric cars?

But perhaps the most interest datapoint in today’s release, and one which may explain why GM’s sales missed, was that the car’s near record channel stuffing, which as we reported last month had soared in the past three months at a record pace, and was just shy of its all time high, saw a modest decline from 780K to 748K. Still, the latter number was still the highest ever December GM dealer inventory for the month of December in the restructured company’s history. It would appears even dealers can’t take any more, which also means to expect significant weaknesses in the various January manufacturing diffusion indexes and hard data points.

Source: GM

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HksKF1MHO9w/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Moments ago, GM, now fully non-government backstopped (and perhaps because of), reported adjusted US vehicle sales of 230,157, a decline of 6.3% from the 245,733 cars delivered a year earlier, on expectations of a 1.5% increase in sales. As Kurt McNeil, VP of US sales, announced ““December started a little slow but sales were stronger later in the month, especially in the week between Christmas and New Year’s. We didn’t make any big changes to our ‘go-to-market’ strategy during the month, which is to offer competitive incentives and market aggressively, and we are carrying good momentum heading into January.” GM also was quick to put blame on wintry weather in December – fear not though, they won’t be the last. It was unclear just how substantial GM’s incentives were in a month in which below margin inventory liquidation was the name of the game for all retailers: we expect to learn soon.

Still, despite the weak December, GM did report a 7.3% increase in total 2013 sales, which rose from 2.6 million to 2.786 million sales, although judging by the weak end of year performance, many prospective buyers may have tapped out their government-funded car loans, which as we reported a month ago, represented together with student loans some 99% of all loan issuance in the past year!

The full breakdown of GM’s December car sales can be seen below: of note – the surge in Corvette sales, which GM said had its best December sales since 2006. Perhaps less exciting was the 9.2% Y/Y drop in Volt sales. Are Americans losing their fascination with electric cars?

But perhaps the most interest datapoint in today’s release, and one which may explain why GM’s sales missed, was that the car’s near record channel stuffing, which as we reported last month had soared in the past three months at a record pace, and was just shy of its all time high, saw a modest decline from 780K to 748K. Still, the latter number was still the highest ever December GM dealer inventory for the month of December in the restructured company’s history. It would appears even dealers can’t take any more, which also means to expect significant weaknesses in the various January manufacturing diffusion indexes and hard data points.

Source: GM

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HksKF1MHO9w/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Having just completed his 75% millionaires tax and seen at the center of a what is likely to be a confiscatory “wealth tax” across Europe, Volkskrant shows that it is not just French President Hollande’s people that see him as the least popular ever, but the world’s leaders also…as no one will shake his hand…

 

h/t: WaPo

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/JcM60w8RLXM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

One of our favorite themes in the past year has been watching Mario “Whatever it takes” Draghi reel powerless before the relentless contraction in Eurozone credit. Most recently, in November we reported that “when the ECB announced a “surprising” rate cut, 67 out of 70 economists who never saw it coming, were shocked. We were not. As we observed ten days prior, Europe had just seen the latest month of record low private sector loan growth in history. Or rather contraction. Back than we said that “one of our favorite series of posts describing the “Walking Dead” monetary zombie-infested continent that is Europe is the one showing the abysmal state Europe’s credit creation machinery, operated by none other than the Bank of Italy’s, Goldman’s ECB’s Mario Draghi, finds itself in.”

We concluded: “we now fully expect a very unclear Draghi, plagued by monetary zombie dreams, to do everything in his power, even though as SocGen notes, he really has no power in this case, to show he has not lost control and start with a rate cut in the November ECB meeting (eventually proceeding to a full-blown QE) in order to boost loan creation.” Less than two weeks later he did just that. The problem, as the ECB reported today, is that not only did M3 decline once more, to 1.4% or the slowest pace in over 2 years and well below the ECB’s 4.5% reference growth value, but more importantly lending to companies and households shrank 2.1% in October – the biggest drop on record! Draghi’s monetary zombies are winning.”

* * *

Fast forward to today, when the ECB just announced the latest set of undead monetary statistics for November. To nobody’s surprise, even though M3 posted the tiniest of possible annual increases, rising from 1.4% to 1.5% (3% below the ECB’s 4.5% reference value which it considers consistent with its price stability mandate), loan creation to the private sector declined once again, this time dumping to -2.3% from a revised -2.2%. As the WSJ reports what we have said for the past year, “The deepening decline increases pressure on the central bank to embark on further measures to stimulate lending, analysts said.”

By the numbers: in November lending to households declined by 3 billion euros ($4.1 billion) reversing the €3 billion increase in October, while lending to firms fell by €13 billion, following a €15 billion drop in the previous month. Loans to firms were down by 3.9% on the year.

And visually:

What does it mean for the future of ECB actions? The ECB, citing the chief economist at IHS Global Insight in London said that “he expects the ECB to stand pat at its next meeting on Jan. 9, he thinks it will take more action early in 2014, “most likely” as another longer-term loan. It is “highly possible” that a future loan would be “tailored specifically toward bank lending.”

Or, looking at the way the EUR is dumping this morning, the ECB may once again shock everyone and do much more than this action, which is already conventionally accepted, and not only take rates even lower but potentially engage in the first case of full blown QE. After all, following three failed SMP sterilizations, it is not as if even the ECB is pretending to be “sterilizing” its previous episode of QE.

Goldman’s assessment:

While activity data in the Euro area have stabilised, we expect bank lending to the corporate sector to remain weak, reflecting a weak recovery, heightened credit risk aversion on the part of peripheral banks and continued balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors. The ECB’s Asset Quality Review (AQR), based on banks’ balance sheet as of end-December, might have contributed to weak bank lending in recent months.

That…or the cold winter weather of course. Cause there is always something to explain away central planning failure.

Finally those looking for the culprits for Europe’s lending freeze, look no further than Italy…

… and, of course, a “recovering” Spain:

Source: ECB

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-_rtA-C7RxE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

One of our favorite themes in the past year has been watching Mario “Whatever it takes” Draghi reel powerless before the relentless contraction in Eurozone credit. Most recently, in November we reported that “when the ECB announced a “surprising” rate cut, 67 out of 70 economists who never saw it coming, were shocked. We were not. As we observed ten days prior, Europe had just seen the latest month of record low private sector loan growth in history. Or rather contraction. Back than we said that “one of our favorite series of posts describing the “Walking Dead” monetary zombie-infested continent that is Europe is the one showing the abysmal state Europe’s credit creation machinery, operated by none other than the Bank of Italy’s, Goldman’s ECB’s Mario Draghi, finds itself in.”

We concluded: “we now fully expect a very unclear Draghi, plagued by monetary zombie dreams, to do everything in his power, even though as SocGen notes, he really has no power in this case, to show he has not lost control and start with a rate cut in the November ECB meeting (eventually proceeding to a full-blown QE) in order to boost loan creation.” Less than two weeks later he did just that. The problem, as the ECB reported today, is that not only did M3 decline once more, to 1.4% or the slowest pace in over 2 years and well below the ECB’s 4.5% reference growth value, but more importantly lending to companies and households shrank 2.1% in October – the biggest drop on record! Draghi’s monetary zombies are winning.”

* * *

Fast forward to today, when the ECB just announced the latest set of undead monetary statistics for November. To nobody’s surprise, even though M3 posted the tiniest of possible annual increases, rising from 1.4% to 1.5% (3% below the ECB’s 4.5% reference value which it considers consistent with its price stability mandate), loan creation to the private sector declined once again, this time dumping to -2.3% from a revised -2.2%. As the WSJ reports what we have said for the past year, “The deepening decline increases pressure on the central bank to embark on further measures to stimulate lending, analysts said.”

By the numbers: in November lending to households declined by 3 billion euros ($4.1 billion) reversing the €3 billion increase in October, while lending to firms fell by €13 billion, following a €15 billion drop in the previous month. Loans to firms were down by 3.9% on the year.

And visually:

What does it mean for the future of ECB actions? The ECB, citing the chief economist at IHS Global Insight in London said that “he expects the ECB to stand pat at its next meeting on Jan. 9, he thinks it will take more action early in 2014, “most likely” as another longer-term loan. It is “highly possible” that a future loan would be “tailored specifically toward bank lending.”

Or, looking at the way the EUR is dumping this morning, the ECB may once again shock everyone and do much more than this action, which is already conventionally accepted, and not only take rates even lower but potentially engage in the first case of full blown QE. After all, following three failed SMP sterilizations, it is not as if even the ECB is pretending to be “sterilizing” its previous episode of QE.

Goldman’s assessment:

While activity data in the Euro area have stabilised, we expect bank lending to the corporate sector to remain weak, reflecting a weak recovery, heightened credit risk aversion on the part of peripheral banks and continued balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors. The ECB’s Asset Quality Review (AQR), based on banks’ balance sheet as of end-December, might have contributed to weak bank lending in recent months.

That…or the cold winter weather of course. Cause there is always something to explain away central planning failure.

Finally those looking for the culprits for Europe’s lending freeze, look no further than Italy…

… and, of course, a “recovering” Spain:

Source: ECB

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-_rtA-C7RxE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

As we warned was likely to happen back in February of 2013 (given the typical trajectory of earnings expectations through a year), JP Morgan has confirmed that the S&P 500 is now more expensive on a forward P/E basis than it was at its peak in October 2007. So, despite the self-referential bias of each and every talking head asset-gatherer on mainstream media's denial, stocks do not offer value here… no matter how many TINAs or BTFATHs you hear…

 

At 15.4x NTM earnings, the S&P 500 is now 0.2x turns more expensive than at its peak in October 2007

 

Furthermore, on a Price-to-Book, Price-to-Cash-Flow, and Price-to-Sales basis, the S&P 500 is also well above its average valuation levels…

 

Still think we can grow into more multiple expansion… then you better hope for an unprecedented rise in confidence…

 

So, are stocks cheap?

Source: JPMorgan

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/JXBGv_TH_ho/story01.htm Tyler Durden

With Bitcoin having almost completed another double off the Dec 17 lows…

 

 

…it is hardly surprising that the fast-money volatility-chasing world of 2-and-20-ers is reaching out for a Bitcoin Execution Trader.

 

(h/t @Besvinick)

 

The San Francisco hedge fund is hiring a “Junior” position, which suggests they already have a “senior” trader who has got tired of trading the digital currency 24 hours a day and is looking to offload the 24x7x365 duties to a lower-level employee with “strong analytic skills” and who is “willing to work odd hours including weekends and late nights/early mornings.”

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8UEhqwSmygg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

It’s that cold. BBC reports that Firemen tackling a blaze in Minneapolis, where temperatures have been below -20C, saw the spray from their hoses turn to ice as it hit the building. Watch it below.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-5AlgmRVx5Q/story01.htm Tyler Durden