Resolution #1: Let’s Call Things What They Really Are In 2014

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The Status Quo system is failing. Its collapse will be messy. Starting to call things what they really are is a necessary first step to working with this reality.

Longtime correspondent Harun I. has offered a refreshing resolution for 2014: let's start calling things what they actually are, rather than continue using officially sanctioned half-truths and misdirections. Language defines the context, meaning and agenda–in other words, everything. If we continue using Orwellian language, we get an Orwellian world of officially sanctioned deceptions passing as reality.

Here are Harun's suggestions should we accept the value of Calling Things What They Really Are. This may well be one of the most insightful explanations of our financial system you will ever read:

 


"Let’s start off the new year by resolving to call things exactly what they are with words a 5th grader would understand.
Bank Deposit: An unsecured personal loan. The bank can do whatever it wishes with the money. The money may not be returned (ironically, people pay for this “service”).

Fractional Reserve Banking (Lending): Leverage. A bank has only a fraction of what it owes to its depositors. In a 10% fractional reserve system, the bank is only required to have ten cents of every dollar in its vaults.

The IMF is suggesting a 10% default by European banks. In a 10% reserve system, this is a reversal. Effectively, one person is going to get their money back and nine others are not. This may reset the banking system but the economic consequences due to the loss of purchasing power at such a scale will be significant.

Bank Bailout: The bank has lost its depositors money and thence government forces the public to borrow money they have a) already earned, b) from the very banks that supposedly have no money, and c) do so at interest (which must be borrowed). Effectively it is a failure and therefore a default.

Bank Bail-in: Every dollar placed at a bank is a dollar it owes to someone (liability). When the bank has lost all or a portion of its depositors' money, it cannot return what it owes. Rather than forcing the people that are owed money by the bank to borrow money to put back in their accounts, the bank merely points out that it doesn’t have the money. This is a default.

Default = Default.

Money: Has no other purpose than to allow people to trade things they have worked to make or services they have performed. Holding on to it may allow one to trade for more or less of a particular good or service in the future. Money is a promise but not a guarantee that it will be exchangeable for something in the future. It is credit and debt.

Without a tangible good or service to trade money is worthless. If I have made a fine overcoat and you, with your skills in carpentry, have made an exquisite chair, we can trade these things directly. In this case money is worthless. It does not work the other way around. Goods and services do not become worthless in the absence of money. My coat will still have value even if I choose to wear it to keep warm. Your chair will have value even if you just choose to sit in it.

This is a critical distinction — and it has been completely lost on just about everyone. We have become completely divorced from the goods and services we make and provide and the money we use to trade these goods and services. At the core of this divorce is Fractional or zero Reserve Banking.

Let’s propose that you and I traded our goods and we deposited our goods in a bank. The bank immediately pledges my chair and your coat to ten other people. Some time later I engage in a redecoration of my home and want my chair. Winter comes and you want your coat. Immediately there is a problem. The bank owes our goods to ten other people. The only way for them to resolve this situation is to either get everyone to accept a fraction of the coat and chair, which of course isn’t very practical, reduce their liability by giving one person the chair and one person the coat and the other ten people get nothing (bail in), or get you and I to bail them out by producing eleven more chairs and coats (10 plus interest).

You see, if in the definitions of bailout and bail in we simply substitute the word money with the words goods and services, the situation loses its ambiguity. When we understand internally what money represents, then we understand what the term Bank backstops really mean. A bank can only be backstopped, bailed out or bailed in, by labor because that is the only thing that "money" represents.

If we understand the definition of money then when we discuss the Federal Reserve's leverage, e.g. 72 to 1, we immediately understand that for each unit of labor performed 72 are owed. If for each hour of labor 72 is owed, how is this ever make that up? The clever person would pipe up and say, I’ll just work for 72 hours straight. But for each of those 72 hours he has worked he now owes 72. When we understand this, we understand that it is an event horizon.

We then understand that every bit of QE (quantitative easing) is a pledge of labor someone must perform at some point in time and that the rate of performance required is impossible.

If we now understand money and leverage and are to propose debt forgiveness then we must embrace rather than bemoan austerity because austerity is the necessary result of 10 other people not getting a chair to sit in or a warm coat for the winter.

With these concepts firmly in tow we begin to see that all of this hand wringing over paying off the $17 trillion in debt is, at best, a fools errand. Yes, in public politicians try to sooth us by appearing concerned. But behind closed doors, the Fed, Treasury, the Congress and the Executive, are all trying to figure out how we are going to borrow more so that over the next doubling period (about 10 years) debt will expand to a necessary $34 trillion.

Some additional clarification may be needed to explain leverage and work. At 72 to 1 the other option is to create 72 units in the time it takes to make one. In other words, if it took you and I one month to create our goods, we must create 72 coats and chairs in that one month. Broken down into hours, if we worked at full capacity 8 hours per day to create one coat and chair, we must do enough work in that 8 hours to create 72 coats and chairs.

Ultimately, work is nothing more than an exchange of energy, and the equation for any exchange of energy is quantifiable and finite (the equation must always balance). If we measured labor output in calories instead of money, the deception disappears. People may not be willing to expend 10 calories for 1. We would also understand that 1 calorie cannot create 10.

These concepts (thermodynamics) are esoteric to the point a 5th grader would have trouble understanding. But what is easily understandable is that if we all did the same work everyday but got less food because of an increase of incoming workers, yes, we would all have food – and we would all soon become malnourished or starved.

How would people react if the Fed said that for every loaf of bread it takes out of the system 72 loafs of bread will disappear?

We must also understand that a lever transmits torque, it does not create more torque.

It is at this point of awareness that it becomes clear that to balance the equation, it is unavoidable that people are not going to get most or all of what they have been promised (austerity). It is at this point that the sober realization arises that we have to dramatically change our expectation of the future.

Credit: Allows trade of something for a promise. Regardless of whatever expectation that may exist, something has been traded or given for no service performed or product yet created. Simply, something has been traded for nothing.

Federal Reserve System: A group of secretly privately owned banks (which, logically were among those who lost all of their depositors money and most certainly compose the primary dealers), that control the global money supply by making more or less credit/money available. It is also supposed to regulate banks within its system.

Even if this system functioned as designed rather than what it has morphed into, it still reads: a subsidiary formed but not funded by member banks and sanctioned by government to lend money to corporations and member banks (to themselves) against strong collateral (which no other bank would touch). Meaning the assets they own are good, but nobody wants them (i.e. the assets are worthless). In essence, this gets those great and wonderful assets off corporation’s and member bank’s books at full value.

Today this subsidiary of the member banks (the banks that own the Fed), loans money to its parent banks to buy all sorts of debt (mostly government debt), then goes about removing that debt (asset) from its parent bank's balance sheet by buying it from them at full price, regardless of what it would have fetched in the market place.

At the most cursory glance, one begins to see how this farcically incestuous relationship would open the door to cronyism, political capture, monetary dominance, and serious abuses of public trust. Whether there is an awakening on the part of of the public is irrelevant. This system is failing. Its collapse will be messy.

There is no need to fret over debt or the monetary system, or the Feds economic and monetary “models”. There is no need to grouse about their manipulations. These things are destined to fail and are already doing so. What we will do in the aftermath of their complete failure, however, is probably of utmost importance."
 


Thank you, Harun, for an excellent start in Calling Things What They Really Are. Off the top of my head, here are two more:

Capitalism: in the U.S. and global economy, this is a cover-word for crony/State capitalism, in which the Central State (rather than the marketplace) chooses the winners and losers.

Growth: Heavily manipulated statistics that reflect the increasing dominance of crony/State capitalism, passed off as "growth" in the real, lived-in economy. Those crony cartels that are receiving the Federal Reserve's "free money" from quantitative easing (QE) are "growing," and everything that isn't receiving the Fed's "free money" is stagnating.

I am sure you can add your own list of "calling things what they really are."


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1iY1DXz Tyler Durden

Resolution #1: Let's Call Things What They Really Are In 2014

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The Status Quo system is failing. Its collapse will be messy. Starting to call things what they really are is a necessary first step to working with this reality.

Longtime correspondent Harun I. has offered a refreshing resolution for 2014: let's start calling things what they actually are, rather than continue using officially sanctioned half-truths and misdirections. Language defines the context, meaning and agenda–in other words, everything. If we continue using Orwellian language, we get an Orwellian world of officially sanctioned deceptions passing as reality.

Here are Harun's suggestions should we accept the value of Calling Things What They Really Are. This may well be one of the most insightful explanations of our financial system you will ever read:

 


"Let’s start off the new year by resolving to call things exactly what they are with words a 5th grader would understand.
Bank Deposit: An unsecured personal loan. The bank can do whatever it wishes with the money. The money may not be returned (ironically, people pay for this “service”).

Fractional Reserve Banking (Lending): Leverage. A bank has only a fraction of what it owes to its depositors. In a 10% fractional reserve system, the bank is only required to have ten cents of every dollar in its vaults.

The IMF is suggesting a 10% default by European banks. In a 10% reserve system, this is a reversal. Effectively, one person is going to get their money back and nine others are not. This may reset the banking system but the economic consequences due to the loss of purchasing power at such a scale will be significant.

Bank Bailout: The bank has lost its depositors money and thence government forces the public to borrow money they have a) already earned, b) from the very banks that supposedly have no money, and c) do so at interest (which must be borrowed). Effectively it is a failure and therefore a default.

Bank Bail-in: Every dollar placed at a bank is a dollar it owes to someone (liability). When the bank has lost all or a portion of its depositors' money, it cannot return what it owes. Rather than forcing the people that are owed money by the bank to borrow money to put back in their accounts, the bank merely points out that it doesn’t have the money. This is a default.

Default = Default.

Money: Has no other purpose than to allow people to trade things they have worked to make or services they have performed. Holding on to it may allow one to trade for more or less of a particular good or service in the future. Money is a promise but not a guarantee that it will be exchangeable for something in the future. It is credit and debt.

Without a tangible good or service to trade money is worthless. If I have made a fine overcoat and you, with your skills in carpentry, have made an exquisite chair, we can trade these things directly. In this case money is worthless. It does not work the other way around. Goods and services do not become worthless in the absence of money. My coat will still have value even if I choose to wear it to keep warm. Your chair will have value even if you just choose to sit in it.

This is a critical distinction — and it has been completely lost on just about everyone. We have become completely divorced from the goods and services we make and provide and the money we use to trade these goods and services. At the core of this divorce is Fractional or zero Reserve Banking.

Let’s propose that you and I traded our goods and we deposited our goods in a bank. The bank immediately pledges my chair and your coat to ten other people. Some time later I engage in a redecoration of my home and want my chair. Winter comes and you want your coat. Immediately there is a problem. The bank owes our goods to ten other people. The only way for them to resolve this situation is to either get everyone to accept a fraction of the coat and chair, which of course isn’t very practical, reduce their liability by giving one person the chair and one person the coat and the other ten people get nothing (bail in), or get you and I to bail them out by producing eleven more chairs and coats (10 plus interest).

You see, if in the definitions of bailout and bail in we simply substitute the word money with the words goods and services, the situation loses its ambiguity. When we understand internally what money represents, then we understand what the term Bank backstops really mean. A bank can only be backstopped, bailed out or bailed in, by labor because that is the only thing that "money" represents.

If we understand the definition of money then when we discuss the Federal Reserve's leverage, e.g. 72 to 1, we immediately understand that for each unit of labor performed 72 are owed. If for each hour of labor 72 is owed, how is this ever make that up? The clever person would pipe up and say, I’ll just work for 72 hours straight. But for each of those 72 hours he has worked he now owes 72. When we understand this, we understand that it is an event horizon.

We then understand that every bit of QE (quantitative easing) is a pledge of labor someone must perform at some point in time and that the rate of performance required is impossible.

If we now understand money and leverage and are to propose debt forgiveness then we must embrace rather than bemoan austerity because austerity is the necessary result of 10 other people not getting a chair to sit in or a warm coat for the winter.

With these concepts firmly in tow we begin to see that all of this hand wringing over paying off the $17 trillion in debt is, at best, a fools errand. Yes, in public politicians try to sooth us by appearing concerned. But behind closed doors, the Fed, Treasury, the Congress and the Executive, are all trying to figure out how we are going to borrow more so that over the next doubling period (about 10 years) debt will expand to a necessary $34 trillion.

Some additional clarification may be needed to explain leverage and work. At 72 to 1 the other option is to create 72 units in the time it takes to make one. In other words, if it took you and I one month to create our goods, we must create 72 coats and chairs in that one month. Broken dow
n into hours, if we worked at full capacity 8 hours per day to create one coat and chair, we must do enough work in that 8 hours to create 72 coats and chairs.

Ultimately, work is nothing more than an exchange of energy, and the equation for any exchange of energy is quantifiable and finite (the equation must always balance). If we measured labor output in calories instead of money, the deception disappears. People may not be willing to expend 10 calories for 1. We would also understand that 1 calorie cannot create 10.

These concepts (thermodynamics) are esoteric to the point a 5th grader would have trouble understanding. But what is easily understandable is that if we all did the same work everyday but got less food because of an increase of incoming workers, yes, we would all have food – and we would all soon become malnourished or starved.

How would people react if the Fed said that for every loaf of bread it takes out of the system 72 loafs of bread will disappear?

We must also understand that a lever transmits torque, it does not create more torque.

It is at this point of awareness that it becomes clear that to balance the equation, it is unavoidable that people are not going to get most or all of what they have been promised (austerity). It is at this point that the sober realization arises that we have to dramatically change our expectation of the future.

Credit: Allows trade of something for a promise. Regardless of whatever expectation that may exist, something has been traded or given for no service performed or product yet created. Simply, something has been traded for nothing.

Federal Reserve System: A group of secretly privately owned banks (which, logically were among those who lost all of their depositors money and most certainly compose the primary dealers), that control the global money supply by making more or less credit/money available. It is also supposed to regulate banks within its system.

Even if this system functioned as designed rather than what it has morphed into, it still reads: a subsidiary formed but not funded by member banks and sanctioned by government to lend money to corporations and member banks (to themselves) against strong collateral (which no other bank would touch). Meaning the assets they own are good, but nobody wants them (i.e. the assets are worthless). In essence, this gets those great and wonderful assets off corporation’s and member bank’s books at full value.

Today this subsidiary of the member banks (the banks that own the Fed), loans money to its parent banks to buy all sorts of debt (mostly government debt), then goes about removing that debt (asset) from its parent bank's balance sheet by buying it from them at full price, regardless of what it would have fetched in the market place.

At the most cursory glance, one begins to see how this farcically incestuous relationship would open the door to cronyism, political capture, monetary dominance, and serious abuses of public trust. Whether there is an awakening on the part of of the public is irrelevant. This system is failing. Its collapse will be messy.

There is no need to fret over debt or the monetary system, or the Feds economic and monetary “models”. There is no need to grouse about their manipulations. These things are destined to fail and are already doing so. What we will do in the aftermath of their complete failure, however, is probably of utmost importance."
 


Thank you, Harun, for an excellent start in Calling Things What They Really Are. Off the top of my head, here are two more:

Capitalism: in the U.S. and global economy, this is a cover-word for crony/State capitalism, in which the Central State (rather than the marketplace) chooses the winners and losers.

Growth: Heavily manipulated statistics that reflect the increasing dominance of crony/State capitalism, passed off as "growth" in the real, lived-in economy. Those crony cartels that are receiving the Federal Reserve's "free money" from quantitative easing (QE) are "growing," and everything that isn't receiving the Fed's "free money" is stagnating.

I am sure you can add your own list of "calling things what they really are."


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1iY1DXz Tyler Durden

Wednesday Humor: Iran Has “Incontrovertible Proof” That US Is Run By Aliens

While some will not be surprised, Al Arabiya reports that Iran’s FARS News Agency claimed in a recent report that:

“The United States’ domestic and international policy has been driven by an ‘alien/extraterrestrial intelligence agenda’ since 1945.”

The “incontrovertible proof” supporting the revelations was (apparently) found in a Federal Security Service (FSB) report, carried out by American computer specialist Edward Snowden – and is confirmed (somewhat amazingly) by former Canadian Defense Minister Paul Hellyer in the following interview.

 

 

Very impressive to see Sophie (the interviewer) keep a straight face – whether you believe the man or not…

 

 

As a gentle reminder, this chap was in charge of Canadian military in the 60s!

 

Via Al Arabiya:

 

Snowden reportedly contacted the Guardian’s columnist Glenn Greenwald telling him, according to Fars, that there “were actually two governments in the United States, the one that was elected, and the other, secret regime, governing in the dark.”

 

The agency added that Snowden’s revelations were confirmed as “accurate” by former Canadian Defense Minister Paul Hellyer, during an appearance he made on Russia Today’s program SophieCo.

 

Hellyer said: “This information is top secret in a way that the governments aren’t talking about it, but if you listen to whistleblowers and the people are had worked in the industry and who know what is going on, there is just a lot of information out there and it doesn’t take very long to get your hands on it.

 

He said 80 percent of UFO reports analyzed by the Canadian defense ministry during his time in office were not real, but “there were 15 or 20 percent for which there was no explanation and there genuinely unidentified flying objects.”


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/K46KJv Tyler Durden

Wednesday Humor: Iran Has "Incontrovertible Proof" That US Is Run By Aliens

While some will not be surprised, Al Arabiya reports that Iran’s FARS News Agency claimed in a recent report that:

“The United States’ domestic and international policy has been driven by an ‘alien/extraterrestrial intelligence agenda’ since 1945.”

The “incontrovertible proof” supporting the revelations was (apparently) found in a Federal Security Service (FSB) report, carried out by American computer specialist Edward Snowden – and is confirmed (somewhat amazingly) by former Canadian Defense Minister Paul Hellyer in the following interview.

 

 

Very impressive to see Sophie (the interviewer) keep a straight face – whether you believe the man or not…

 

 

As a gentle reminder, this chap was in charge of Canadian military in the 60s!

 

Via Al Arabiya:

 

Snowden reportedly contacted the Guardian’s columnist Glenn Greenwald telling him, according to Fars, that there “were actually two governments in the United States, the one that was elected, and the other, secret regime, governing in the dark.”

 

The agency added that Snowden’s revelations were confirmed as “accurate” by former Canadian Defense Minister Paul Hellyer, during an appearance he made on Russia Today’s program SophieCo.

 

Hellyer said: “This information is top secret in a way that the governments aren’t talking about it, but if you listen to whistleblowers and the people are had worked in the industry and who know what is going on, there is just a lot of information out there and it doesn’t take very long to get your hands on it.

 

He said 80 percent of UFO reports analyzed by the Canadian defense ministry during his time in office were not real, but “there were 15 or 20 percent for which there was no explanation and there genuinely unidentified flying objects.”


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/K46KJv Tyler Durden

Beijing Shuts Down As Pollution Over Past 12 Hours Literally “Off The Chart”

For the past 12 hours, the so-called PM2.5 level (or China's new pollution threshold) has been above the "serious" level. Bear in mind this is the newly adjusted-upwards threshold that already far exceeds the WHO's health-threatening levels.

  • *BEIJING WARNS RESIDENTS TO AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SMOG
  • *BEIJING MONITORING CENTER REPORTS `SERIOUS' AIR POLLUTION TODAY

Levels are officially "beyond index" today (with a peak at 613 so far compred to 500 "hazardous") and the streets are empty!

Via Bloomberg:

City’s air quality index reading near Tiananmen Square, putting it in category defined as “serious” pollution.

 

City warns residents to avoid outdoor activities

 

Reading of PM2.5 pollution near Tiananmen Square was 583 micrograms per cubic meter as of 6 a.m., with average reading in past 24 hours at 338, according to city’s air-monitoring website

 

NOTE: World Health Organization recommends 24-hour PM2.5 exposure of no more than 25

 

Via @PeterSchloss

 

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/cvNkarePHvU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Beijing Shuts Down As Pollution Over Past 12 Hours Literally "Off The Chart"

For the past 12 hours, the so-called PM2.5 level (or China's new pollution threshold) has been above the "serious" level. Bear in mind this is the newly adjusted-upwards threshold that already far exceeds the WHO's health-threatening levels.

  • *BEIJING WARNS RESIDENTS TO AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SMOG
  • *BEIJING MONITORING CENTER REPORTS `SERIOUS' AIR POLLUTION TODAY

Levels are officially "beyond index" today (with a peak at 613 so far compred to 500 "hazardous") and the streets are empty!

Via Bloomberg:

City’s air quality index reading near Tiananmen Square, putting it in category defined as “serious” pollution.

 

City warns residents to avoid outdoor activities

 

Reading of PM2.5 pollution near Tiananmen Square was 583 micrograms per cubic meter as of 6 a.m., with average reading in past 24 hours at 338, according to city’s air-monitoring website

 

NOTE: World Health Organization recommends 24-hour PM2.5 exposure of no more than 25

 

Via @PeterSchloss

 

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/cvNkarePHvU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Summary Of Senate’s Report On Benghazi Embassy Attack

Earlier today, following significant delays, the Senate released its bipartisan report on the deadly Benghazi US embassy attack from September 11, 2012, which faulted both the State Department and the intelligence community for not preventing attacks on two outposts in Benghazi, Libya, that killed four Americans, including a U.S. ambassador. For those who are short on time and would rather get the cliff notes on the 85 page report (link here), the following summary from AP should suffice.

  • Ambassador Chris Stevens, who was among those killed that night, had twice in the weeks before the attacks declined the U.S. military’s offer of a team of special operations forces that had been available to bolster security and provide other help. The State Department had decided not to request an extension of the team’s presence, about a month before the attacks, because officials thought the job could be done by local or department security.
  • The report recommends that only in rare cases should a diplomatic facility continue to operate if it falls short of the State Department’s security standards — and in such cases the facility should have the personnel, weapons and fire safety equipment needed to address the threat. The State Department should be ready to evacuate or close diplomatic missions facing the highest threat, the report says.
  • The report recommends that the intelligence community expand its work to analyze social media used by extremists, noting that little of that was done before the attacks and it’s possible there were hints in web postings of trouble ahead.
  • Operations in Benghazi continued with little change even though the mission crossed some “tripwires” that should have led to reduction in personnel or the suspension of operations. Some nations closed their diplomatic facilities because of worsening security conditions in the summer of 2012. But others stayed, contrary to reports the U.S. was the last country represented there.
  • An unarmed U.S. military drone was not delayed when responding to the attack, and it provided important information during the attacks.
  • Based on limited intelligence, analysts inaccurately referred to the presence of a protest at the mission before the attack, and they didn’t corroborate the information. The intelligence community took too long to correct the erroneous reports, causing confusion and leading government officials to make incorrect public statements.
  • The U.S. government must not rely on local security in areas where its facilities are under high threat or where the host nation is not capable of providing adequate security. The report said the committee supports the State Department’s initiative to work with the Pentagon to expand the Marine Security Guard Program to increase protection at high-risk facilities beyond just the protection of classified information.

Finally for those curious how the original explanation of the Benghazi attack is discussed, namely that it was in retaliation to an inflamatory video clip, here is what the report has to say:

… the report does not go far enough to address the Administration’s failure to correctly label the incident as a deliberate and organized terrorist attack in the days following the attack. As our “Flashing Red” report found, there was never any doubt among key officials, including officials in the IC and the Department of State, that the attack in Benghazi was an act of terrorism. Yet, high-ranking Administration officials, including the President himself, repeatedly cast doubt on the nature of the attack, at times attributing it to the reaction to an anti-Islamic video and to a spontaneous demonstration that escalated into violence.

 

Despite the fact that the September J 1, 2012 attacks in Benghazi were recognized as terrorist attacks by the Intelligence Community and personnel at the Department of State from the beginning, Administration officials were inconsistent and at times misleading in their public statements and failed for days to make  cleat to the American people that the deaths in Benghazi were the result of a terrorist attack. It took eight days before the Administration communicated clearly and unequivocally to the American people and to Congress regarding this fact through testimony by NCTC Director Matthew Olsen before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on September 19,2012.

 

Even after the Administration finally published the complete time line of the changes made to the talking points, it is baffling how a fundamental, unclassified fact that was known to the IC from the beginning was only communicated clearly to the American people by the Administration after the issue had already been sufficiently muddled to result in confusion.

 

While I support the SSCI report and appreciate its thorough analysis of much of what went wrong, I believe that more emphasis should have been placed on the three issues I have discussed: (1) the Administration’s initial misleading of the American people about the terrorist nature of the attack, (2) the failure of the Administration to hold anyone at the State Department, particularly Under Secretary Kennedy, fully accountable for the security lapses, and (3) the unfulfilled promises of President Obama that he would bring the terrorists to justice.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1cqP6Gr Tyler Durden

Summary Of Senate's Report On Benghazi Embassy Attack

Earlier today, following significant delays, the Senate released its bipartisan report on the deadly Benghazi US embassy attack from September 11, 2012, which faulted both the State Department and the intelligence community for not preventing attacks on two outposts in Benghazi, Libya, that killed four Americans, including a U.S. ambassador. For those who are short on time and would rather get the cliff notes on the 85 page report (link here), the following summary from AP should suffice.

  • Ambassador Chris Stevens, who was among those killed that night, had twice in the weeks before the attacks declined the U.S. military’s offer of a team of special operations forces that had been available to bolster security and provide other help. The State Department had decided not to request an extension of the team’s presence, about a month before the attacks, because officials thought the job could be done by local or department security.
  • The report recommends that only in rare cases should a diplomatic facility continue to operate if it falls short of the State Department’s security standards — and in such cases the facility should have the personnel, weapons and fire safety equipment needed to address the threat. The State Department should be ready to evacuate or close diplomatic missions facing the highest threat, the report says.
  • The report recommends that the intelligence community expand its work to analyze social media used by extremists, noting that little of that was done before the attacks and it’s possible there were hints in web postings of trouble ahead.
  • Operations in Benghazi continued with little change even though the mission crossed some “tripwires” that should have led to reduction in personnel or the suspension of operations. Some nations closed their diplomatic facilities because of worsening security conditions in the summer of 2012. But others stayed, contrary to reports the U.S. was the last country represented there.
  • An unarmed U.S. military drone was not delayed when responding to the attack, and it provided important information during the attacks.
  • Based on limited intelligence, analysts inaccurately referred to the presence of a protest at the mission before the attack, and they didn’t corroborate the information. The intelligence community took too long to correct the erroneous reports, causing confusion and leading government officials to make incorrect public statements.
  • The U.S. government must not rely on local security in areas where its facilities are under high threat or where the host nation is not capable of providing adequate security. The report said the committee supports the State Department’s initiative to work with the Pentagon to expand the Marine Security Guard Program to increase protection at high-risk facilities beyond just the protection of classified information.

Finally for those curious how the original explanation of the Benghazi attack is discussed, namely that it was in retaliation to an inflamatory video clip, here is what the report has to say:

… the report does not go far enough to address the Administration’s failure to correctly label the incident as a deliberate and organized terrorist attack in the days following the attack. As our “Flashing Red” report found, there was never any doubt among key officials, including officials in the IC and the Department of State, that the attack in Benghazi was an act of terrorism. Yet, high-ranking Administration officials, including the President himself, repeatedly cast doubt on the nature of the attack, at times attributing it to the reaction to an anti-Islamic video and to a spontaneous demonstration that escalated into violence.

 

Despite the fact that the September J 1, 2012 attacks in Benghazi were recognized as terrorist attacks by the Intelligence Community and personnel at the Department of State from the beginning, Administration officials were inconsistent and at times misleading in their public statements and failed for days to make  cleat to the American people that the deaths in Benghazi were the result of a terrorist attack. It took eight days before the Administration communicated clearly and unequivocally to the American people and to Congress regarding this fact through testimony by NCTC Director Matthew Olsen before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on September 19,2012.

 

Even after the Administration finally published the complete time line of the changes made to the talking points, it is baffling how a fundamental, unclassified fact that was known to the IC from the beginning was only communicated clearly to the American people by the Administration after the issue had already been sufficiently muddled to result in confusion.

 

While I support the SSCI report and appreciate its thorough analysis of much of what went wrong, I believe that more emphasis should have been placed on the three issues I have discussed: (1) the Administration’s initial misleading of the American people about the terrorist nature of the attack, (2) the failure of the Administration to hold anyone at the State Department, particularly Under Secretary Kennedy, fully accountable for the security lapses, and (3) the unfulfilled promises of President Obama that he would bring the terrorists to justice.


    



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The Last 2 Times This Happened, The US Was Already In Recession

While the market seems to have rapidly given up worrying about the piss-poor jobs data from last week, the fact of the matter is the longer-term trend of ’employment’ in America is anything but questionable. As we pointed out, and was so broadly understood, the number of people in the labor force in American is fading fast. In fact, as the chart below shows, the last 2 times the civilian labor force fell on an annual basis like this, the US economy was already in recession

 

 

 

(H/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)


    



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Brazil Raises Benchmark Interest Rate By 50 bps To 10.50%, More Than Expected

The rest of the world may be stuck importing Japan’s deflation (and Europe may be even contemplating launching a Fed type QE as BNP suggested first some time ago), but one country is doing all in its power, and more, to slow down hot money and the resulting inflation – Brazil. Moments ago the Central Bank of Brazil raised the Benchmark Selic interest rate by 50 bps points more than the 25 bps expected, to 10.50%.

From the press release:

Brasília – Continuing the adjustment of the basic interest rate process, initiated in April 2013 meeting, the Committee decided unanimously, at this time, to raise the Selic rate by 0.50 percentage points to 10.50%, with no bias.

While this decision will catch most forecasters by surprise, and will hardly please Bovespa investors, this is what Goldman had to say about the decision earlier today:

Recent Dovish Remarks Suggest a +25bp Selic Hike Today but Sticky Inflation Increases Probability of a Deeper and Longer Hiking Cycle

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC; Copom) meeting will take place later today. Given the dovish central bank undertones contained in both the minutes of the Nov 27 Copom meeting and the subsequent Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR), we expect the Copom to moderate the magnitude of rate hikes to +25bp (following five consecutive 50bp hikes). However, given the pressure on the BRL, the December IPCA inflation surprise (which frustrated the central bank’s public commitment to deliver inflation in 2013 below the 5.84% level of 2012), and the stickiness of headline, core and inflation expectations, we assess at least a 40% probability of another +50bp hike tonight. Furthermore, we do not rule out that, consistent with the recent more dovish remarks, the Copom does indeed moderate the pace of hikes to just 25bp but hints (likely indirectly) that the tightening cycle will continue at least until the February 26 meeting.

The outlook for inflation remains challenging. Inflation dynamics seem to have deteriorated towards the end of 2013. Altogether, very little progress, if any, was recorded during 2013 to re-anchor inflation to the admittedly generous but still elusive 4.50% inflation target. Overall, headline IPCA inflation ended 2013 at a high 5.9% (5.91% for two-decimal precision), exceeding the already high 5.84% 2012 print, despite having benefitted from: (1) the mean-reversion throughout 2013 of the large 2012 food supply shock; and (2) a very significant positive administered-price supply shock (see below for a more detailed discussion). In all, ultimately the monetary authority was not able to deliver even on the admittedly undemanding commitment to have headline inflation ending 2013 below the 2012 level.

In short, inflation remained high and generalized over the past year. Furthermore, key inflation measures ended 2013 at a higher level than in 2012. For instance, the average of the three main core inflation measures—smoothed trimmed means, double weight, and ex-food and regulated prices—accelerated to 6.1% yoy at year-end 2013 from 5.8% in 2012. In addition, services inflation remained high: 8.7% (unchanged from 2012; a reflection of, among other factors, inertia and unanchored inflation expectations). Furthermore, tradable inflation accelerated to 6.0% in 2013 (from 4.5% yoy a year ago, driven in part by a weaker BRL) and non-tradable inflation ended 2013 at a high 8.45% yoy; down from 9%-plus at mid-year but higher than the 8.38% print at year-end 2012. Finally, year-end 2014 inflation expectations have deteriorated steadily since March 2013 and are significantly misaligned from the target.

Not only did headline/core inflation end the year at unacceptably high above-target levels, but there is now also a high level of repressed inflation in the system (via regulated prices/tariffs) that will render the task of disinflating the economy harder in the years ahead. For instance, inflation among the items whose prices are freely determined/set by the market (prices determined by supply and demand in the market; 75% weight in the IPCA) ended 2013 at a high 7.3% yoy (up from 6.5% in 2012), while inflation in prices that are regulated by the government (25% weight in the IPCA) ended the year at a low and unsustainable 1.5% yoy (down from 3.7% in 2012 and the lowest level since at least 2004). That is, had regulated price inflation ended 2013 at the same already relatively low 2012 level, headline inflation would have ended 2013 at or above 6.5% upper limit of the IT band.

In our assessment, the wide 578bp gap between inflation in freely determined and administered/regulated prices will have to normalize in 2014-15 to avoid further micro and macro distortions in the economy (e.g., misallocation of resources and weakening balance sheets of the companies operating in regulated sectors). Overall, we believe the government strategy of fighting inflation by managing regulated prices and the exchange rate rather than by addressing its underlying root causes has proven ineffective and no substitute for conventional demand management policies (fiscal and monetary). In fact, this strategy may have contributed to delaying a timely and decisive monetary policy response to the rising inflationary pressures. This contributed to the significant generalization of inflationary pressures and strengthening of inertial forces, which will ultimately increase the output cost (sacrifice ratio) and length of time required to disinflate the economy.

The estimated density function of freely determined prices has moved to the right compared with a year ago. The center of the headline IPCA inflation distribution does not appear to have shifted much from a year ago, but by year-end 2013 the density function (1) developed a fatter right-tail (i.e., skewed to higher inflation outcomes); and (2) seems to have turned bi-modal, possibly a reflection of the widening gap between freely determined and administered prices. Replicating the same exercise with just the subset of freely determined prices shows a clearer rightward shift of the inflation density function from year-end 2012 to year-end 2013 with the distribution now centered outside the 6.50% upper limit of the inflation target band. Furthermore, the bi-modal characteristic of the headline IPCA density function disappears when we exclude regulated prices.


    



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