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US Navy Frigate Runs Aground Amid Sochi-Overwatch In Black Sea

We noted that two US Navy ships – the guided-missile frigate USS Taylor and an amphibious command ship the USS Mount Whitney – entered the Black Sea on Feb 4th on what the Navy said was a routine deployment (following terrorist threats surrounding the Olympic Games in Sochi).

8 days later, the Navy reports, the USS Taylor is under inspection for damage (and rumored to be inoperable) after running aground as it was preparing to moor in Samsun, Turkey.

Via Stars and Stripes,

The guided-missile frigate USS Taylor, one of two ships on deployment in the Black Sea, is being inspected for damage after running aground last week as it was preparing to moor in Samsun, Turkey, a spokesman for the U.S. 6th Fleet said Tuesday.

The Taylor was able to moor without further incident, and there were no injuries, said 6th Fleet spokesman Lt. Shawn Eklund.

The incident, which occurred on Feb. 12, is under further investigation, Eklund said.

…

The Pentagon announced their planned deployment in January, after terrorist groups threatened to disrupt the Olympic Games in Sochi, the resort town on Russia’s Black Sea coast.

Let’s just hope there’s no problems in Sochi now? And how does a US Navy frigate run aground while preparing to moor in a friendly environment?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/N6Y0n5 Tyler Durden

Spanish Bad Loans Hit Record; Surge Most In A Year

With Spanish sovereign bond yields hitting record lows – marginally above those of the US – one might be surprised to learn that unemployment is at record highs, suicide rates are at record highs, youth joblessness is at record highs, and now, to top it all off, Spanish bad loans are at record highs once again (at 13.6% of all loans). Of course, not deterred by the uncomfortable reality, Economy Minister Guindos is out in full propaganda mode:

*GUINDOS SAYS BAD LOANS RATIO SEEN MODERATING IN NEXT QTRS

However, given the 17.7% rise in the last 12 months – the most in a year – we are struggling to see signs of the turning point he is so confident of.

The data – Guidos argues – reflects “recognition of reality” in what seems like an admission that all the spin and hoopla about marginal improvements til now have been based on entirely unreal data…

Did Spanish banks kitchen sink it? We highly doubt it as unemployment levels strongly suggest the worst is yet to come.

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/N6Y06L Tyler Durden

Sell-Side Penguin Of The Day Award Goes To…

… Morgan Stanley’s “research analyst” David Risinger, who today, February 18, 2014, a day after the WSJ broke the news yesterday around 10:30 pm that Forest Labs would be acquired by Actavis for $25 billion, decided to upgrade FRX from Equal-Weight to Overweight, and boosted his price target from “NA” to $86 or about where the stock was trading first thing this morning after the WSJ news. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is undisputed sell-side research value added.

And… Penguins.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nL3lfm Tyler Durden

The Idiocy Of “Blaming It On The Weather” Exposed

This morning's catastrophic drop in the National Association of ~~Hope~~ Home Builders sentiment index has rapidly been spun as due to the weather… of course, makes perfect sense, right? What would happen if these drops were actually real fundamentals? If the status quo, the "common knowledge" was shown to be full of shit (once again). Well, riddle us this Batman… if weather was to blame, then why did the "West" region plunge the most? In fact, why did The West plunge the most on record? Too much sunny dry weather not good for sales? In fact, even the entirely indpendent provider of real estate research Trulia said that weather is not to blame…

The West dropped the most on record – we assume that warm, dry weather is detrimental to home-buying in some way?

And kindly explain how the weather was the driver when The West dropped the most of all the regions… (West -14, NorthEast -8, MidWest -9, South -7)

And here's what Trulia told everyone…

Winter Weather is a Wobble, not a Hobble

Here’s what the weather wobble means for interpreting the forthcoming January construction and sales data. Because the weather had a slight negative impact on housing activity, flat month-over-month numbers for construction or sales would mean that other market forces were strong enough to offset the negative effect of bad weather. But if housing activity fell month-over-month in January by more than the predicted weather effect, don’t pin the entire drop on the cold.

That means if existing home sales fall by 5% month-over-month in January, for example, then only a bit of decline (1.1%) should be blamed on weather. The regional patterns in housing activity will also help reveal whether weather mattered. The impact of January’s weather on starts should be most negative in the Northeast and Midwest, so if starts decline most in the South and West, then weather’s not the culprit. Finally, housing activity tends to bounce partway back the month after bad weather (unless that next month is unusually bad, too). Rain and cold don’t last forever, and neither do their effects on housing.

Therefore, bad winter weather will only delay some construction and sales activity, rather than make it disappear. Severe winter weather may cause housing activity to wobble, but cold, rain, and snow won’t hobble the housing recovery.

But sure, as opposed to face up to reality, keep blaming the weather…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/N6PzIx Tyler Durden

The Idiocy Of "Blaming It On The Weather" Exposed

The West dropped the most on record – we assume that warm, dry weather is detrimental to home-buying in some way?

And kindly explain how the weather was the driver when The West dropped the most of all the regions… (West -14, NorthEast -8, MidWest -9, South -7)

And here's what Trulia told everyone…

Winter Weather is a Wobble, not a Hobble

Here’s what the weather wobble means for interpreting the forthcoming January construction and sales data. Because the weather had a slight negative impact on housing activity, flat month-over-month numbers for construction or sales would mean that other market forces were strong enough to offset the negative effect of bad weather. But if housing activity fell month-over-month in January by more than the predicted weather effect, don’t pin the entire drop on the cold.

That means if existing home sales fall by 5% month-over-month in January, for example, then only a bit of decline (1.1%) should be blamed on weather. The regional patterns in housing activity will also help reveal whether weather mattered. The impact of January’s weather on starts should be most negative in the Northeast and Midwest, so if starts decline most in the South and West, then weather’s not the culprit. Finally, housing activity tends to bounce partway back the month after bad weather (unless that next month is unusually bad, too). Rain and cold don’t last forever, and neither do their effects on housing.

Therefore, bad winter weather will only delay some construction and sales activity, rather than make it disappear. Severe winter weather may cause housing activity to wobble, but cold, rain, and snow won’t hobble the housing recovery.

But sure, as opposed to face up to reality, keep blaming the weather…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/N6PzIx Tyler Durden

Student Loans Hit Record $1.08 Trillion; Delinquent Student Debt Rises To All Time High

While the bulk of the quantity data contained in the Fed’s quarterly Household Debt and Credit Report is known in advance courtesy of the Fed’s monthly tracking of household revolving and non-revolving debt, the quality components always provide a welcome insight into the state of the US household. It is there that we find that the most disturbing trend in recent years: the encumbering of students with record amounts of loans continues. In fact, as of December 31, the total amount of non-dischargeable (for now) student loans hit a new all time high of $1.08 trillion an increase of $53 billion in the quarter. By comparison, total credit card debt as of the same period was “only” $683 billion. At this rate, total student loans will be double the size of all credit card debt within 2-3 years.

What’s worse, while the 90+ day student debt delinquency rate did post a tiny decline from 11.8% to 11.5% in Q4, on a total notional basis due to the increase in outstanding balances, as of this moment the amount of heavily delinquent student loans has just hit a fresh record high of $124.3 billion, up from $121.5 billion in the prior quarter.

So: when does the Fed finally admit i) there is a student loan problem and ii) the only way to solve said problem is to promptly monetize it?

Finally, putting new “debt” creation in perspective, in 2013 just student and car loans alone represented 108% (that’s right, more than all) of total household debt created.

Source

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1kSxoov Tyler Durden

Global Gold Coin And Bar Demand Surged 28% To Record 1,654 Tonnes In 2013

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,314.00, EUR 957.59 and GBP 787.44 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,326.00, EUR 967.60 and GBP 791.97 per ounce.

LBMA closing fix yesterday was USD 1,327.50, EUR 968.55 and GBP 794.15 per ounce.
The U.S. markets were closed for the President’s Day holiday yesterday.

Gold drifted lower today as traders took profits from recent gains, but gold held not far off 3 and a 1/2 month highs due to a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over U.S. and global economic growth.

Webinar: Gerald Celente On Strategies For Protecting Your Wealth In 2014 And Beyond
Join Gerald Celente on this broadcast this Thursday as he examines the opportunities in 2014 and in the coming uncertain years.

Gold in U.S. Dollars, 5 Years – (Bloomberg)

Bullion is up 10% this year as investors and store of value buyers see the 28% fall in 2013 as a buying opportunity. The volatility and weakness in equities globally due to emerging market turmoil and economic concerns is leading to safe haven demand.

Silver also fell but wasn’t too far from a 3-1/2 month high of $21.96 hit on Monday. Spot silver prices rose for a 12th day yesterday, the longest rally since at least 1968, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The World Gold Council’s global supply and demand figures have been released. They confirm what was already known – huge physical demand for coins and bars globally was counter acted by significant liquidations by COMEX speculators and weak hand ETF investors.

Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 makes interesting reading nevertheless. The World Gold Council said full-year 2013 gold demand was 3,756 tonnes, valued at $170 billion and down from 4,415 tonnes in the previous year due to ETF liquidations.

The data confirms that 2013 saw record demand for coins and bars globally but especially in China, Japan and much of Asia.

Annual global investment in bars and coins reached 1,654 tonnes, up from 1,289 tonnes in 2012, a rise of 28%, and the highest figure since the World Gold Council’s data series began in 1992. For the full year, Chinese and Indian investment in gold bars and coins was up 38% and 16%, respectively.

Although much smaller markets in terms of volume, in the U.S. bar and coin demand was up 26% to 68 tonnes, and in Turkey it was up 113% to 102 tonnes.

China became the world’s largest store of wealth buyer of gold in 2013. They are not consumers as only a tiny fraction of gold is ever consumed. Chinese people bought a record 1,066 metric tons of gold last year, as sudden price falls led to a 32% jump in bars, coins and jewelry buying.

China’s increased purchases helped limit the decline in gold prices as western speculators and investors sold 869.1 tons through exchange-traded products backed by bullion.

Chinese gold demand surged past Indian demand making China the world’s number one buyer of gold. However, India’s gold demand remained buoyant in 2013 and rose by 13% to 945 tonnes compared to 2012. The Indian demand number does not capture the full level of demand as the governments punitive import taxes led to a huge jump in black market activity and the smuggling of gold in huge quantities into India.

Gold demand in Japan jumped threefold in 2013 as people in Japan sought refuge from Prime Minister ShinzoAbe’s campaign to stoke inflation and weaken the yen. Demand for jewelry, bars and coins increased to 21.3 metric tons last year from 6.6 tons in 2012. Demand for jewelry rose 5.4% to 17.6 tons and Japan became a net buyer of bars and coins for the first time since 2005 with 3.7 tons of purchases. There is scope for a massive increase in Japanese investment, pension and store of wealth demand in the coming years.

Central banks added 61 tons to gold reserves in the fourth quarter, the least since the end of 2010, and full-year purchases declined 32% to 368.6 tons, according to the council. Nations added to holdings for 12 consecutive quarters and will continue purchasing amounts in the hundreds of tons which should support gold.

It is important to note that full-year 2013 total global gold demand of 3,756 tonnes is worth just $170 billion which is what the Federal Reserve prints in less than three months. It is much less than what the Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ and PBOC and other central banks are printing every month.

Global gold coin and bar demand at 1,654 tonnes per annum is worth just $75 billion which is not far off what the Federal Reserve is printing each month now. This shows how while demand has increased in recent years, the demand is very sustainable and there remains room for a significant jump in demand in the coming years.

Webinar: Gerald Celente On Strategies For Protecting Your Wealth In 2014 And Beyond
Join Gerald Celente on this broadcast this Thursday as he examines the opportunities in 2014 and in the coming uncertain years.

Gerald Celente needs little introduction: Founder of The Trends Research Institute in 1980, Gerald Celente is a pioneer trend strategist. He is author of the national bestseller Trends 2000 and Trend Tracking (Warner Books) and publisher of the internationally circulated Trends Journal newsletter.

This webinar is scheduled for this Thursday, Feb 20, 2014 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM GMTand will be moderated by Mark O’Byrne, Head of Research at GoldCore.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1jOqkZE GoldCore

UK Inflation Slumps Below BoE Target (But Price Pressures Are Building)

Despite all the hoop-la of the UK economic recovery – and Mark Carney’s credibility-sapping dynamic forward guidance “we’ll know it when we see it” perspective – billions in QE has failed to spark enough ‘inflation’ to break the Bank of England’s oh so critical 2% inflation target. For the first time since November 2009, UK CPI fell below the 2% ‘threshold’ in January (must be the weather) as Japan’s deflation exporting (what goes up there must go down everywhere else) spreads from the US to the UK. Of course, the silver lining for equity markets is that this provides Carney just the right ammo to keep rates lower for longer at their record lows; but price pressures are building…

Of course this hasn’t stopped QE from driving UK house prices and the equity market to record highs as ‘asset’ inflation is all that really matters…

As Stefan Karlsson notes – it’s definitely not great news…

For the first time since 2009, when oil prices had collapsed and the VAT had been temporarily reduced, British inflation fell below 2%, to 1.9% to be more precise. Note however that this is still more than a percentage point higher than in the euro area, despite the fact that the pound is up about 6% against the euro (and up about 6% against the U.S. dollar) during the latest year.

When price inflation continues to exceed that in your major trading partners despite a rising currency, this suggests that domestic price pressures are very strong.

In Britain’s case it doesn’t reflect rising wages however, but falling productivity.

But hey – why not bid the FTSE up 1% anyway and outperform all European stocks.

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1h22ODN Tyler Durden

Venezuelan Authorities Detain Anti-Government Protest Leader – Live Feed

As was expected, President Maduro's forces have detained Leopoldo Lopez – the leader of the anti-government protesters. Having earlier stated, "I present myself here, willing for my arrest to wake up Venezuelans," it appears Venezuelan authorities have stepped in…

*VENEZUELA'S LOPEZ SAYS HE HAS NOTHING TO BE AFRAID ABOUT
*VENEZUELA'S LOPEZ DETAINED BY NATIONAL GUARD IN CHACAITO

Despite the ongoing proclamations of "absolute calm" the streets (below) appear anything but with hundreds of thousands on the streets… and protesters are blocking the National Guard van that holds Lopez.

Lopez added…

“In Venezuela, there is no justice. This fight is for the students, for those jailed, for the people suffering scarcity, for those without a job, for the youth without a future.”

Live Feed

The van holding Lopez is being held back by protesters…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nKEUic Tyler Durden

Ukraine’s Military Releases The Armored Vehicles And Fighter Jets

Days after Kazakhstan broke out is tanks post-devaluation, the promise to "Restore order by all means envisaged" is under way in Ukraine as military vehicles are being mobilized into the city center (and fighter jets are being reported overhead). As Martin Armstrong so eloquently noted recently, "the Western powers represented by the EU and the US have nothing to stand on to protect Ukraine and can only offer lip-service at best. So once again, it appears that Ukraine is doomed and the best one can hope for there, is that Russia will allow the West to leave. The countdown goes forward and the political and economic crisis is indicative of what we see with the first shot across the bow in the rising trend of the Cycle of War." The US has 'demanded' an end to the violence…

Via Voice Of Russia,