Category: zerohedge

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/kvDIFdodHr0/story01.htm williambanzai7

Yesterday, when the Treasury released its TIC data early by mistake, the update that China’s holdings rose to a record $1.317 trillion caused a stir. This was confusing, since while China, which as we reported yesterday, now has a record $3.8 trillion in reserves having grown by $500 billion in 2013, has barely invested in US paper, and in fact going back to 2010, its holdings were a solid $1.2 trillion. In other words, its Treasury holdings have increased by a modest $100 billion in three years. Hardly anything to write home about. And certainly nothing to write home about when one considers the soaring Treasury held by the largest holder of US paper… everyone knows who that is. For those few who don’t, and for everyone else too, here is the most recent breakdown of the top holders of US paper.

And now a question: with the Fed already “tapering” its purchases of Treasurys, and thus no longer the failsafe backstop bidder of first, last or any resort, how much interest in “money good” paper will everyone else have?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/NhojXyToTuQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

On the surface, the January Philly Fed was a beat, printing at 9.4 on expectations of a 8.7 number and up from a downward revised 6.4. However, the internals were hardly as pretty with the most notable, New Orders, plunging from 12.9 to 5.1, the lowest print since May 2013, and also the biggest three month drop since August 2011. Additionally, while unfilled orders posted a modest increase from -6.6 to -1.0, Inventories were crushed sliding from 16.0 to -19.6, on what one can assume were wholesale liquidations, and judging by the retailers abysmal numbers, at hardly profitable levels. Furthermore, the optimism of the diffusion index respondents seems to be waning as the 6 Months forecast slide from 44.8 to 34.4 after hitting a recent near all time high of just shy of 60. Also bad news for margins, as Prices Paid increased by 2.3 points to 18.7, while Prices Received decline from 10.8 to 5.1 – a delta, in the wrong direction, of 13.6. The only good news in the report was the increase in number of employees from 4.4 to 10.0, however offset by the average employee workweek which dropped from 4.8 to -5.3. So more workers, doing less: so much for wage inflation pressures.

The data charted:

 

Just the New Orders data:

 

And the full component breakdown:

From the report’s analysis of current conditions:

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a revised reading of 6.4 in December to 9.4 this month (see Chart). The index has now been positive for eight consecutive months. The current shipments and new orders indexes remained positive but moved in opposite directions compared with December. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, decreased from a revised reading of 12.9 to 5.1 this month. Shipments continued to expand, and its index edged slightly higher to a reading of 12.1. Labor market indicators showed some improvement this month. The current employment index increased 6 points from its revised reading in December. Twenty?three percent of the firms reported increases in employment in January, which is slightly higher than the 18 percent that reported increased employment last month. Firms reported reduced work hours, with the average workweek index falling from 4.8 to ?5.3. Cost pressures were slightly more widespread this month among reporting firms: The prices paid index increased 2 points, to 18.7. But with respect to firms’ own manufactured goods, price increases were less widespread this month: The prices received index decreased 6 points, to 5.1.

As for the 6 month outlook:

The survey’s future indicators have recently shown moderating optimism about growth in manufacturing. This month, the future general activity index fell 10 points, from a revised reading of 44.8 in December to 34.4 this month (see Chart). Still, nearly 48 percent of the firms expect increases in activity over the next six months; 13 percent of the firms indicated that they expect decreases. The indexes for future new orders and shipments also remained at relatively high levels but fell 7 points and 9 points, respectively. The future employment index was virtually unchanged at 17.5, with nearly 25 percent of the firms expecting to increase employment over the next six months.

And with GM’s year end, near-record channel stuffing now long gone, it is all downhill from here.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1eUV59s Tyler Durden

NAHB’s confidence indicator dropped modestly, missing expectations (for the 4th time in the last 5 months) by the most since October as prospective buyer traffic tumbled. While the “hope” of realtors remains notably disconnected from the reality of sales (for the 3rd time in 20 years, the 4-month slide in prospective buyer traffic is the largest since Spetember 2010 and has dropped to its weakest since May 2013.

4th miss in last 5 months…

 

Hope remains but is stalling…

 

Buyer Traffic is tumbling

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1arZ4aH Tyler Durden

Despite Lagarde’s call for more manipulation and money-printing from the world’s central banks yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is not amused with his Japanese ‘colleagues’. Speaking in Washington, Lew had plenty to say on Europe (not out of the woods), China (need to open markets more), and the IMF (US commitment remains solid – oh, apart from the funding part); but it was his entirely ironic comments aimed at Abe and Kuroda that were risible:

• *LEW SAYS JAPAN NEEDS TO `GET THEIR DOMESTIC ECONOMY GROWING’
• *LEW SAYS JAPAN CAN’T RELY ON FX RATE FOR ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE

Pot calling kettle black? Or a person who lives in a currency-war “glass-house” throwing stones? Pick your tortured analogy but the US hypocrisy continues.

 

He had plenty to say…

G-20…

• *LEW SAYS U.S. COMMITMENT TO IMF REMAINS SOLID
• *LEW SAYS A G-20 FOCUS OF HIS WILL BE INTL FINANCIAL STANDARDS

Japan…

• *LEW SAYS JAPAN CAN’T RELY ON FX RATE FOR ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE
• *LEW SAYS JAPAN NEEDS TO `GET THEIR DOMESTIC ECONOMY GROWING’

China…

• *LEW SAYS CHINA IS CONCERNED WITH PACE OF ECONOMIC CHANGE
• *LEW SAYS CHINA’S GOAL SHOULD BE TO OPEN MARKETS
• *LEW SAYS FX AND OTHER REFORMS ARE GOOD FOR CHINA’S ECONOMY
• *LEW SAYS CHINA IS INTENT ON PATH OF ECONOMIC REFORM

Europe…

• *LEW SAYS SOME EUROPEAN NATIONS NEED TO DO MORE TO BOOST DEMAND
• *LEW SAYS EUROPE NEEDS TO GET GROWTH TO HIGHER LEVEL
• *LEW SAYS EUROPE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS

US…

• *LEW SAYS LATE-FEB. IS TIME TO FOCUS ON RATHER THAN EARLY MARCH
• *LEW SAYS WAITING UNTIL LAST MINUTE ON DEBT CAUSES DAMAGE
• *LEW SAYS CONGRESS SHOULDN’T PLAY GAMES WITH GOVT PAYMENTS
• *LEW SAYS CONGRESS IS GOING TO HAVE TO ACT ON DEBT CEILING
• *LEW SAYS 2014 STARTS WITH CONFIDENCE ECONOMY TO DO BETTER

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1dTFVza Tyler Durden

Despite Lagarde’s call for more manipulation and money-printing from the world’s central banks yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is not amused with his Japanese ‘colleagues’. Speaking in Washington, Lew had plenty to say on Europe (not out of the woods), China (need to open markets more), and the IMF (US commitment remains solid – oh, apart from the funding part); but it was his entirely ironic comments aimed at Abe and Kuroda that were risible:

• *LEW SAYS JAPAN NEEDS TO `GET THEIR DOMESTIC ECONOMY GROWING’
• *LEW SAYS JAPAN CAN’T RELY ON FX RATE FOR ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE

Pot calling kettle black? Or a person who lives in a currency-war “glass-house” throwing stones? Pick your tortured analogy but the US hypocrisy continues.

 

He had plenty to say…

G-20…

• *LEW SAYS U.S. COMMITMENT TO IMF REMAINS SOLID
• *LEW SAYS A G-20 FOCUS OF HIS WILL BE INTL FINANCIAL STANDARDS

Japan…

• *LEW SAYS JAPAN CAN’T RELY ON FX RATE FOR ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE
• *LEW SAYS JAPAN NEEDS TO `GET THEIR DOMESTIC ECONOMY GROWING’

China…

• *LEW SAYS CHINA IS CONCERNED WITH PACE OF ECONOMIC CHANGE
• *LEW SAYS CHINA’S GOAL SHOULD BE TO OPEN MARKETS
• *LEW SAYS FX AND OTHER REFORMS ARE GOOD FOR CHINA’S ECONOMY
• *LEW SAYS CHINA IS INTENT ON PATH OF ECONOMIC REFORM

Europe…

• *LEW SAYS SOME EUROPEAN NATIONS NEED TO DO MORE TO BOOST DEMAND
• *LEW SAYS EUROPE NEEDS TO GET GROWTH TO HIGHER LEVEL
• *LEW SAYS EUROPE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS

US…

• *LEW SAYS LATE-FEB. IS TIME TO FOCUS ON RATHER THAN EARLY MARCH
• *LEW SAYS WAITING UNTIL LAST MINUTE ON DEBT CAUSES DAMAGE
• *LEW SAYS CONGRESS SHOULDN’T PLAY GAMES WITH GOVT PAYMENTS
• *LEW SAYS CONGRESS IS GOING TO HAVE TO ACT ON DEBT CEILING
• *LEW SAYS 2014 STARTS WITH CONFIDENCE ECONOMY TO DO BETTER

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1dTFVza Tyler Durden

It would appear that the meteoric 300% rise of Best Buy’s shares last year was promoted to the general investing public as the renaissance of the on-the-verge-of-bankruptcy warehouse store and sure enough, the world and his mom piled in to chase the momo higher and higher… until today. With a 30% tumble this morning, those momo-chasing moms and pops may be less enamored to buy-the-dip but there was one ‘smart-money’ insider who was selling as fast as retail was buying. Co-Founder Richard Schulze (who indicated in August he would be selling to ‘diversify’ his holdings) piled out of the stock through most of the fourth quarter (at a level well above this morning’s opening print).

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mb31bH Tyler Durden

It would appear that the meteoric 300% rise of Best Buy’s shares last year was promoted to the general investing public as the renaissance of the on-the-verge-of-bankruptcy warehouse store and sure enough, the world and his mom piled in to chase the momo higher and higher… until today. With a 30% tumble this morning, those momo-chasing moms and pops may be less enamored to buy-the-dip but there was one ‘smart-money’ insider who was selling as fast as retail was buying. Co-Founder Richard Schulze (who indicated in August he would be selling to ‘diversify’ his holdings) piled out of the stock through most of the fourth quarter (at a level well above this morning’s opening print).

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mb31bH Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

If we don't understand the problem or the dynamics that are generating the problem, it is impossible to reach a solution or practical plan of action.

When it comes time to assess our grasp of the dynamics of this unprecedented era, how do you reckon historians will grade our collective political "leadership," intelligentsia, central state, corporate leadership and the "common man/woman" citizen? Did we rise to the occasion or did we falter, not in acting to counter the dissolution of the Status Quo, but in simply making a concerted effort to understand the tangled web of lies, corruption, perverse incentives, unintended consequences, simplistic (and utterly misguided) ideologies, not to mention the real-world limits of a supposedly limitless world, that have become the key dynamics of this era?

I suspect future historians (presuming the funding of such scholarly assessments survives) will grade all categories either F or D-. The reasons are not difficult to discern, and it behooves us to understand why we are collectively so ill-prepared to understand our era, much less fix what's broken before the whole over-ripe mess collapses in a heap.

1. Intellectual laziness. Very few people are willing to work hard enough to figure things out on their own. It's so much easier to join Paul Krugman dancing around the fire of the Keynesian Cargo Cult, chanting "aggregate demand! Humba-Humba!" while waving dead chickens than ditch reductionist, naive ideologies and actually work through an independent analysis.

2. Independent thinking is an excellent way to get fired, demoted or sent to Siberia. Though America claims to value independent thinking, this is just another pernicious lie: what America values is the ability to mask failing conventional ideas and systems with a thin gloss of "fresh thinking."
In other words, what the American state and corporatocracy value is the appearance of independent thinking, not the real thing. Since the real thing will get you fired, everyone who works for government or Corporate America masters the fine arts of producing simulacra, legerdemain and illusion. This only further obscures the real dynamics, making legitimate analysis that much more difficult.

3. Relatively few have any incentive to question authority, the state or the corporatocracy. Humans excel at figuring out which side of the bread is buttered, and who's lathering on the butter: self-interest is the ultimate human survival trait (we cooperate because it serves our self-interest to do so).

While we cannot hold the pursuit of self-interest against any individual–after all, who among us truly acts selflessly when push comes to shove?–we can monitor the monumentally negative consequences of self-interest and complicity on the systems and Commons we share.

When roughly half of all households are drawing direct cash/benefits from the central state, how many of those people are interested in doing anything that might put their place at the feeding trough at risk? Sure, people will grouse about this or that (usually related to the conviction that they deserve more or have been cheated out of "their fair share"), but as long as the government payments, direct deposits and benefits keep coming, what possible motivation is there for the recipients to devote energy to investigating the potential collapse of the gravy train?

Corporate America is no different. The store may be devoid of customers, but the employees will strive to look busy to keep the paychecks coming until the inevitable lay-off/implosion occurs. How many Corporate America employees will critique their way out of a paycheck? In an environment this difficult for job-seekers, you'd be nuts to bother figuring out why your division is failing, knowing as you do that the truth will result in the "termination with extreme prejudice" of the naive fools who presented the truth as if it would be welcome
.
Does anyone seriously imagine that any employee of a bloated bureaucracy will ever voluntarily challenge the squandering of revenues when that might cost them their own paycheck, bonus, contract for their brother-in-law, etc.? A few protected people (professors with tenure, for example) can be "brave," but their "bravery" is cheap: their protestations cannot trigger termination with extreme prejudice, so the gesture of resistance is just that, a gesture.

4. Those relative few who might have a real motivation to undertake independent analysis have little time to pursue this noble project. They are working absurd hours and enduring absurd commutes. Between getting the bundles of diapers into the elevator and planning what to cook for dinner, there is precious little time or energy left for figuring out the mess we're in. Just getting to a second or third job can suck up a significant amount of time, money amd energy.

And so the busy employee/sole-proprietor/contract worker listens to NPR or some talk radio program for a few minutes, reinforcing their ideology of choice, and turns on the "news" (laughably bad propaganda churned up with "if it bleeds, it leads") as background noise and spends whatever personal time they have on Roku, Netflix, Facebook, Twitter, email, etc. seeking distraction or solace from the daily workload.

In a strange irony, there are plenty of citizens who have plenty of time (recall that Americans manage to watch 6-8 hours of TV a day), but their marginalized status and dependence on the state drains them of motivation to do anything but seek amusement and distraction.

If we don't understand the problem or the dynamics that are generating the problem, it is impossible to reach a solution or practical plan of action. In other words, the four points above doom us just as surely as the dynamics of insolvency, corruption, debt servitude, Tyranny of the Majority, etc. etc. etc.

Choose your metaphor of choice, but rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic has a nice ironic texture in an election year, when the "news" will be focusing on rearranging the political deck chairs on the first class deck–at least when there's no celebrity ruckus or "if it bleeds, it leads" to crowd out what passes for "hard news" in a regime dedicated to the distractions of bread and circuses.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hutIoS Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

If we don't understand the problem or the dynamics that are generating the problem, it is impossible to reach a solution or practical plan of action.

When it comes time to assess our grasp of the dynamics of this unprecedented era, how do you reckon historians will grade our collective political "leadership," intelligentsia, central state, corporate leadership and the "common man/woman" citizen? Did we rise to the occasion or did we falter, not in acting to counter the dissolution of the Status Quo, but in simply making a concerted effort to understand the tangled web of lies, corruption, perverse incentives, unintended consequences, simplistic (and utterly misguided) ideologies, not to mention the real-world limits of a supposedly limitless world, that have become the key dynamics of this era?

I suspect future historians (presuming the funding of such scholarly assessments survives) will grade all categories either F or D-. The reasons are not difficult to discern, and it behooves us to understand why we are collectively so ill-prepared to understand our era, much less fix what's broken before the whole over-ripe mess collapses in a heap.

1. Intellectual laziness. Very few people are willing to work hard enough to figure things out on their own. It's so much easier to join Paul Krugman dancing around the fire of the Keynesian Cargo Cult, chanting "aggregate demand! Humba-Humba!" while waving dead chickens than ditch reductionist, naive ideologies and actually work through an independent analysis.

2. Independent thinking is an excellent way to get fired, demoted or sent to Siberia. Though America claims to value independent thinking, this is just another pernicious lie: what America values is the ability to mask failing conventional ideas and systems with a thin gloss of "fresh thinking."
In other words, what the American state and corporatocracy value is the appearance of independent thinking, not the real thing. Since the real thing will get you fired, everyone who works for government or Corporate America masters the fine arts of producing simulacra, legerdemain and illusion. This only further obscures the real dynamics, making legitimate analysis that much more difficult.

3. Relatively few have any incentive to question authority, the state or the corporatocracy. Humans excel at figuring out which side of the bread is buttered, and who's lathering on the butter: self-interest is the ultimate human survival trait (we cooperate because it serves our self-interest to do so).

While we cannot hold the pursuit of self-interest against any individual–after all, who among us truly acts selflessly when push comes to shove?–we can monitor the monumentally negative consequences of self-interest and complicity on the systems and Commons we share.

When roughly half of all households are drawing direct cash/benefits from the central state, how many of those people are interested in doing anything that might put their place at the feeding trough at risk? Sure, people will grouse about this or that (usually related to the conviction that they deserve more or have been cheated out of "their fair share"), but as long as the government payments, direct deposits and benefits keep coming, what possible motivation is there for the recipients to devote energy to investigating the potential collapse of the gravy train?

Corporate America is no different. The store may be devoid of customers, but the employees will strive to look busy to keep the paychecks coming until the inevitable lay-off/implosion occurs. How many Corporate America employees will critique their way out of a paycheck? In an environment this difficult for job-seekers, you'd be nuts to bother figuring out why your division is failing, knowing as you do that the truth will result in the "termination with extreme prejudice" of the naive fools who presented the truth as if it would be welcome
.
Does anyone seriously imagine that any employee of a bloated bureaucracy will ever voluntarily challenge the squandering of revenues when that might cost them their own paycheck, bonus, contract for their brother-in-law, etc.? A few protected people (professors with tenure, for example) can be "brave," but their "bravery" is cheap: their protestations cannot trigger termination with extreme prejudice, so the gesture of resistance is just that, a gesture.

4. Those relative few who might have a real motivation to undertake independent analysis have little time to pursue this noble project. They are working absurd hours and enduring absurd commutes. Between getting the bundles of diapers into the elevator and planning what to cook for dinner, there is precious little time or energy left for figuring out the mess we're in. Just getting to a second or third job can suck up a significant amount of time, money amd energy.

And so the busy employee/sole-proprietor/contract worker listens to NPR or some talk radio program for a few minutes, reinforcing their ideology of choice, and turns on the "news" (laughably bad propaganda churned up with "if it bleeds, it leads") as background noise and spends whatever personal time they have on Roku, Netflix, Facebook, Twitter, email, etc. seeking distraction or solace from the daily workload.

In a strange irony, there are plenty of citizens who have plenty of time (recall that Americans manage to watch 6-8 hours of TV a day), but their marginalized status and dependence on the state drains them of motivation to do anything but seek amusement and distraction.

If we don't understand the problem or the dynamics that are generating the problem, it is impossible to reach a solution or practical plan of action. In other words, the four points above doom us just as surely as the dynamics of insolvency, corruption, debt servitude, Tyranny of the Majority, etc. etc. etc.

Choose your metaphor of choice, but rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic has a nice ironic texture in an election year, when the "news" will be focusing on rearranging the political deck chairs on the first class deck–at least when there's no celebrity ruckus or "if it bleeds, it leads" to crowd out what passes for "hard news" in a regime dedicated to the distractions of bread and circuses.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hutIoS Tyler Durden