WTF Chart Of The Day: The “It’s Not Working” Edition

Despite Janet Yellen’s commitment to continue supporting the economic recovery the transmission system of government interventions is clearly broken. As STA Wealth Management’s Lance Roberts shows in the simple chart below, it has taken $35.17 of government intervention to generate $1 of economic growth over the past 5 years. More importantly, the rate of diminishing returns is increasing. In other words, it is taking consistently more dollars of intervention to create an incremental increase in economic growth.

 

 

In the meantime, as shown below, the continued liquidity programs from the Federal Reserve continue to boost asset markets towards more exuberant levels.

 

However, despite signs of a potential market “bubble” Janet Yellen clearly sees no such thing…


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/pmUU01Tr3gM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Fact Or Fiction: The President's 11-Point Plan To "Fix" Obamacare

Responding to his administration’s ongoing struggles with the launch of Obamacare, President Barack Obama announced a proposal today that would enable insurance companies to grant one-year extensions to the health plans of Americans who would otherwise face cancellation. Here are some of Obama’s other plans to fix the troubled rollout of his signature health care law:

1. Replacing glitchy healthcare.gov website with a convenient in-person enrollment kiosk located in Washington, D.C.

 

2. Enrollees allowed to keep preexisting medical conditions

 

3. Customers will no longer be automatically opted in to the weekly newsletter “Talkin’ Premiums” when they purchase insurance on the exchange

 

4. Allowing enrollees choice of whether to stay with their current doctor or go with well-regarded Minneapolis-area general practitioner Dr. Joel Glochowsky

 

5. Losing the semicolon in Chapter V, section 5, clause B

 

6. As a preventive measure, each American receives free raw steak to reduce swelling on shiners

 

7. Meeting insurance companies halfway by letting them cancel health care plans for only the sickest patients

 

8. Obama agrees to preface all future health care updates with statement, “This thing is a hell of a mess”

 

9. Eliminates requirement for every enrollee to contract terminal disease

 

10. Offering easy-to-follow instructions on how to snap your own neck in the event that you are diagnosed with cancer and lost your insurance

 

11. Changing website background to blue

 

Source: The Onion


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/7qm7wrj_wSc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Fact Or Fiction: The President’s 11-Point Plan To “Fix” Obamacare

Responding to his administration’s ongoing struggles with the launch of Obamacare, President Barack Obama announced a proposal today that would enable insurance companies to grant one-year extensions to the health plans of Americans who would otherwise face cancellation. Here are some of Obama’s other plans to fix the troubled rollout of his signature health care law:

1. Replacing glitchy healthcare.gov website with a convenient in-person enrollment kiosk located in Washington, D.C.

 

2. Enrollees allowed to keep preexisting medical conditions

 

3. Customers will no longer be automatically opted in to the weekly newsletter “Talkin’ Premiums” when they purchase insurance on the exchange

 

4. Allowing enrollees choice of whether to stay with their current doctor or go with well-regarded Minneapolis-area general practitioner Dr. Joel Glochowsky

 

5. Losing the semicolon in Chapter V, section 5, clause B

 

6. As a preventive measure, each American receives free raw steak to reduce swelling on shiners

 

7. Meeting insurance companies halfway by letting them cancel health care plans for only the sickest patients

 

8. Obama agrees to preface all future health care updates with statement, “This thing is a hell of a mess”

 

9. Eliminates requirement for every enrollee to contract terminal disease

 

10. Offering easy-to-follow instructions on how to snap your own neck in the event that you are diagnosed with cancer and lost your insurance

 

11. Changing website background to blue

 

Source: The Onion


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/7qm7wrj_wSc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

CIA Database Tracks All US Money Transfers

While hardly as dramatic as ongoing revelations of Big NSA Brother probing every aspect of Americans’ lives, overnight the WSJ reported that in addition to the complete loss of privacy – which should now be taken for granted – the CIA has been added to the list of entities that scrutinize every online interaction, and is “building a vast database of international money transfers, including Western Union, that includes millions of Americans’ financial and personal data, officials familiar with the program say.” The program will be (and is) carried out under the same provision of the Patriot Act that enables the National Security Agency to collect nearly all American phone records. In other words, instead of being upfront that all the CIA, and administration, care about is tracking large flows of money that may have “evaded” taxation, and is traditionally used by expats to send modest amounts of money back to their host countries, what the CIA is instead focusing on is whether mom and pop are using Western Union to deposit $500 in Al-Qaeda’s account in Afghanistan.

The WSJ explains as much:

The data is obtained from companies in bulk, then placed in a dedicated database. Then, court-ordered rules are applied to “minimize,” or mask, the information about people in the U.S. unless that information is deemed to be of foreign-intelligence interest, a former U.S. official said.

 

A limited number of analysts are allowed to search the database with queries that meet court-approved standards. This is similar to the way NSA handles its phone-data program.

 

 

The CIA, as a foreign-intelligence agency, is barred from targeting Americans in its intelligence collection. But it can conduct domestic operations for foreign intelligence purposes. The CIA program is meant to fill what U.S. officials see as an important gap in their ability to track terrorist financing world-wide, current and former U.S. officials said.

 

The program serves as the latest example of blurred lines between foreign and domestic intelligence as technology globalizes many activities carried out by citizens and terrorists alike. The CIA program also demonstrates how other U.S. spy agencies, aside from the NSA, are using the same legal authority to collect data such as details of financial transactions.

Ah yes, “limited number.” And since every single American is a potential sponsor of terrorism, it is only logical that this latest dragnet covers absolutely every single US citizen. And in the outlier case that the CIA also taps, investigates, records, and just happens to forward to the IRS, every single money transfer originating or terminating in the US, oh well.

The data collected by the CIA doesn’t include any transactions that are solely domestic, and the majority of records collected are solely foreign, but they include those to and from the U.S., as well. In some cases, it does include data beyond basic financial records, such as U.S. Social Security numbers, which can be used to tie the financial activity to a specific person. That has raised concerns among some lawmakers who learned about the program this summer, according to officials briefed on the matter.

What is peculiar is that unlike wire transfers which are virtually unlimited in size, and scrutinized by all relevant, and irrelevant, authorities money transfers are for the most part tiny and anything that is of a more sizable amount, over $3000, is already subject to the microscope treatment:

Money transfer forms differ depending on location and type. But they ask for the names, addresses and telephone numbers of senders and receivers. Depending on the transfer, senders and receivers also may be asked to provide the date and place of their birth. In most locations in the U.S., people sending $1,000 or more must provide an ID such as a driver’s license. People sending $3,000 or more must provide additional ID, such as a Social Security number or passport.

However, it appears the small transfer limit did not trouble Al-Qaeda:

The money-transfer program appears to have been inspired by details of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist plot, in which the al Qaeda hijackers were able to move about $300,000 to U.S.-based bank accounts without arousing suspicion. In part, it was because the transactions were comparably small and fit the pattern of the remittances used by immigrants or foreign visitors to send money home.

 

Some of the transfers were between bank accounts, but some moved through person-to-person transfers. In 2000, Sept. 11 plot facilitator Ramzi Binalshibh made a series of transfers, totaling more than $10,000, from Germany to the U.S., where they were collected by hijacker Marwan al-Shehhi. Two transfers were through MoneyGram and two through Western Union.

And while hardly as dramatic in the grand scheme of things, the WSJ report shows just how much, or little, personal privacy hinges on one simple word:

That program was institutionalized by 2006 and continues under a controversial authority tucked into a part of the Patriot Act known as Section 215. That law permits the government to obtain “tangible things,” including records, as long as the government shows it is reasonable to believe they are “relevant” to a terrorism investigation.

 

Under that provision, the U.S. government secretly interpreted the term “relevant” to permit collection of records on millions of people not necessarily under suspicion. That secret interpretation, used to justify the legality of the phone-records program, was brought to light in the wake of the revelations by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden.

 

The interpretation also was used by CIA as the legal underpinning of its bulk financial-records effort under the money-transfer program, officials said.

One doesn’t need to clarify that just like with the NSA, the CIA is logging, recording and analyzing every single money transfer of even the most nominal amount. Which, quite simply, continues to build an architecture for the full tracing of all electronic monetary transactions in the US. Because once every flow of funds is logged at even the most micro level, the US will be able to not only regulate and supervise, but to implement any type of capital and fund flow controls it desires. Which it will in due course.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/QjCmB2dRDKE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Twitter Options Open Over 25% More "Expensive" Than Facebook

Twitter’s stock price is not happy. The unleashing of Twitter options this morning appears to have created a need to sell the underlying (after yesterday’s exuberant pre-options jump). Over 1 million lots (100 million shares) have changed hands already in Twitter across all maturites but perhaps most notable is the demand. At-the-money implied volatility (an apples-to-apples way of comparing options ‘costs’) is around 50% for a December maturity which compares to 40% for Facebook options of the same maturity. It seems more than a few of the IPO owners are looking to hedge (as puts are notably more “expensive” than calls).

 

  • FB Dec Calls 39.75%, Puts 39.92%
  • TWTR Dec Calls 49.02%, Puts 50.76%

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/c64-824zWjg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Twitter Options Open Over 25% More “Expensive” Than Facebook

Twitter’s stock price is not happy. The unleashing of Twitter options this morning appears to have created a need to sell the underlying (after yesterday’s exuberant pre-options jump). Over 1 million lots (100 million shares) have changed hands already in Twitter across all maturites but perhaps most notable is the demand. At-the-money implied volatility (an apples-to-apples way of comparing options ‘costs’) is around 50% for a December maturity which compares to 40% for Facebook options of the same maturity. It seems more than a few of the IPO owners are looking to hedge (as puts are notably more “expensive” than calls).

 

  • FB Dec Calls 39.75%, Puts 39.92%
  • TWTR Dec Calls 49.02%, Puts 50.76%

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/c64-824zWjg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Madrid Buried In Trash As Garbagemen Strike Continues For 10th Day

The trouble with proclaiming ‘victory’ over the crisis in Spain (read the whole of Europe) and the ECB enabling governments profligacy with the ghost of OMT future is that it merely emboldens. As Al Jazeera reports, Madrid’s garbage collectors have been on strike since November 5 to protest layoffs and pay cuts. With garbage piling up on the streets of Madrid, the mayor issued private trash-collecting companies an ultimatum on Wednesday: end the street cleaners’ strike or lose their contracts. More than 30,000 residents have signed a petition to the defense minister asking for the streets to be cleaned. The following images show the chaos…

 

Madrid bins overflowing in the streets…

 

 

Translation: Worker for the Madrid garbage collectors yesterday in Madrid protesting against layoffs.

 

Some expressed their frustration with the strike:
Translation: The Madrid Cleaning Strike shouldn’t be called a strike; it’s vandalism and crime. This is how you lose the argument.

Translation: This Madrid Cleaning Strike is lamentable and like the Third World.

 

Seems to us that this might be a great opportunity to put some of the record high unemployed youth back to work… (though one wonders just how big the disincentive to work is in Spain…)


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/eYWyrG450c4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

And Another Miss: Industrial Production Contracts 0.1% On Expectations Of A Rise

First it was the Empire Mfg Index. Now it is the turn of Industrial Production which as the Fed just reported declined by -0.1% in October, a drop from the upward revised 0.7% increase in September driven by a -1.6% collapse in mining and a -1.1% drop in Utilities, while pure manufacturing rose a modest 0.3% in October, just above the 0.1% from September. And confirming the increasing slack, Capacity Utilization dipped once again, from the 78.3 in September, to 78.1 once again driven by a notable drop in Mining Capacity down from 90.5 to 88.7.

The lack of a pick up in the economy is shown below:

From the report:

The production of consumer goods decreased 0.1 percent in October after having increased 0.8 percent in September; in October, the index stood 2.5 percent above its level of a year earlier. The output of durable consumer goods fell 0.2 percent: Gains for home electronics; appliances, furniture, and carpeting; and miscellaneous goods were outweighed by a decrease in the index for automotive products, which nevertheless stood more than 11 percent above its year-earlier level. The index for consumer nondurables was unchanged, as a small increase in the output of non-energy nondurables offset a small decline in the output of consumer energy products. Among non-energy nondurables, gains for foods and tobacco, for clothing, and for paper products were partially offset by a loss for chemical products.

 

The output of business equipment rose 0.2 percent in October after an average monthly gain of 0.3 percent during the third quarter. The index for transit equipment declined 0.1 percent, the index for information processing equipment rose 0.2 percent, and the index for industrial and other equipment increased 0.3 percent. Over the past 12 months, the production of business equipment has advanced 5.1 percent, with similarly sized gains in each of its three major components.

 

The output of defense and space equipment rose 0.5 percent in October following gains of 0.8 percent in September and 2.1 percent in August. The index for October was 3.3 percent above its year-earlier level.

 

Among nonindustrial supplies, construction supplies recorded its fifth consecutive monthly increase; the index moved up 0.3 percent in October and was 6.6 percent above its level of a year earlier. The output of business supplies moved up 0.2 percent in October; despite having gained 3.0 percent over the past 12 months, the index was still about 8 percent below its pre-recession peak.

 

In October, the production of materials to be processed further in the industrial sector decreased 0.4 percent, a decline that was driven by a drop of 1.5 percent in the production of energy materials. The output of durable materials rose 0.3 percent, as increased production of equipment parts and other durable materials more than offset a decline in the output of consumer parts. The production of nondurable materials moved up 0.4 percent; textile, paper, and chemical materials each registered gains of 0.5 percent or more, while the index for other nondurable materials was little changed.

In short: the news today so far has been bad enough to validate the “BTFATH mentality” which means Kevin Henry’s 1800 price target on the S&P remains unchanged.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/an7oFiKqCCQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Goldman Previews Japan's QE Moar: "BOJ Could Purchases Outright Equities"

Two days ago, when we posted “”Frustrated” Liquidity Addicts Demand Moar From BOJ As Nikkei Rally Stalls“, we suggested that more QE from the Bank of Japan is just around the corner (and likely to take place as early as April) as the only real “driver” behind Abenomics, the surge in the stock market had stalled for nearly 6 months. 48 hours later, and 700 points in the Nikkei higher, the realization that indeed more QE is coming has swept through the market like wildfire. So what will the Bank of Japan’s expansion of quantitative easing look like, when supposedly only $75 billion per month amounting to a whopping 70% of all new issuance, is not enough? According to Goldman “the BoJ could take the lead in this reallocation process by notably increasing its purchases of risky assets, such as ETFs and RIETS, or even outright equities – say purchasing a wide range of Japanese equities by index weight.” It may get even better: “the BoJ is likely to consider more unorthodox policy to push up inflation expectations” – like paradropping NGDP, better known as paradropping yen (a move Yellen herself is now contemplating as we previewed back in September).

The full Goldman note:

The first arrow –namely, bold monetary easing to dispel deflation – is likely to be loosed again in the April-June quarter 2014 (most likely April-end) for several reasons. First, to offset some of the negative impacts of the consumption tax hike to be implemented April 2014. Second, by next spring, inflationary pressures are likely to dissipate (due to base effects and more subdued commodity prices). Therefore, the BoJ is likely to feel compelled to act in order to reach the 2% inflation target that was adopted in January 2013. Judging by the survey of long-term inflation expectations for Japan as published by Consensus Economics, there is broad scepticism that the BoJ will hit its inflation target in 2015 as intended. Indeed, the survey does not envisage inflation anywhere near 2% even by 2023. Consequently, further easing is also likely to be required to lift inflation expectations and reinforce the BoJ’s commitment to reaching the target.

 

In our discussions with clients, many also expect the BoJ to ease next April, but there seems to be little agreement on what policies the BoJ will implement. The BoJ could buy more and longer dated JGBs, but given that the Bank already buys 70% of all new issuance, increasing such purchases may be met with scepticism and a concern that the BoJ is monetising government debt. However, such a move may stimulate quicker portfolio allocation into risky assets, which is only happening very slowly, as reported in the BoJ’s Financial System Report.

 

Alternatively, the BoJ could take the lead in this reallocation process by notably increasing its purchases of risky assets, such as ETFs and RIETS, or even outright equities – say purchasing a wide range of Japanese equities by index weight. We are also watching to see if the BoJ is likely to consider more unorthodox policy to push up inflation expectations. More conventionally, the Bank may confirm that QQE is to be open-ended.

And where the Japanese unprecedented monetary policy experiment boldly goes, the Fed is sure to follow.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/yjBiuHMMnS8/story01.htm Tyler Durden