Ron Paul: Trump Is Right, What Are We Doing In Syria?

Ron Paul: Trump Is Right, What Are We Doing In Syria?

Authored by Ron Paul via The Mises Institute,

My first reaction to news earlier this month that the Syrian government had been overthrown was, how much did we have to do with it; how involved was the CIA; and how much is it going to cost.

As with Saddam and Gaddafi before him, we know that Assad was no libertarian hero. But unleashing an army dedicated to establishing an Islamic state in once-secular Syria hardly seems like a good idea to me.

As with President George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” moment after Saddam’s overthrow, getting rid of Assad will prove to be the easy part. Rebuilding Syrian society after the destruction of the country will cost billions and will likely be about as successful as our “liberation” of Libya, which is still a failed, terrorist-dominated state more than a decade later.

In 2017 the Los Angeles Times published an article that, sadly, speaks volumes about the insanity of our interventionist foreign policy. “In Syria, militants armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA,” read the headline. How does it make any sense that the Pentagon is fighting a proxy war with the CIA on Syrian soil? What’s worse is that the American people are forced to pay for this Pentagon versus CIA war and then forced to pay again to rebuild the country after all the destruction.

The Syrian people will feel the cost in more than just dollars.

How involved is the US government in the overthrow of the Syrian government?

For the past ten years the US has controlled the areas of Syria oil and wheat production, stealing resources that we have no legal claim on. The combination of resource theft and extreme sanctions hollowed out Syrian society over the past ten years, so when the terrorists sprang forth from Idlib a few weeks ago there was little resistance.

Now instead of the relatively benign yet authoritarian rule of Assad, we have rule by the direct inheritors of the people who attacked us on 9/11. I am shocked that the mainstream media and many if not most politicians are cheering this. Ironically, some of the biggest cheerleaders for the al-Qaeda takeover of Syria are the same Members of Congress who finished their daily speeches on the House Floor with “we will never forget 9/11.” I guess they finally forgot?

The implosion of Syria, like the US-engineered implosion of Libya and Iraq, has not led to democracy, peace, and the protection of civil liberties. In each case it has produced the exact opposite. Millions dead, millions more living in misery with many seeking revenge against those who destroyed their families, their lifestyle, and their countries.

Are we safer having created millions of new enemies?

President-elect Donald Trump made a statement last week about Syria, saying that this is not our fight and we should have nothing to do with it. His sentiment is the correct one, though we have unfortunately to this point had far too much to do with it. Let us hope that as president, Donald Trump will follow through with this sentiment and extract the US – the overt and covert presence – from not only Syria but the entire Middle East. This is not our fight and every single thing we have done there for the past 75 or so years has only made things worse. Time for an America first foreign policy!

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2024 – 15:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/gAtEVC6 Tyler Durden

Billionaire DOGE Insider Teases Musk’s ‘Really Bold’ Plans To Drain Swamp: ‘A Lot of Stuff Ready For Day One’

Billionaire DOGE Insider Teases Musk’s ‘Really Bold’ Plans To Drain Swamp: ‘A Lot of Stuff Ready For Day One’

Billionaire entrepreneur and investor Joe Lonsdale expressed strong optimism for the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative during his appearance on the Shawn Ryan Show. The Palantir co-founder highlighted the “very bold” reforms being planned by co-heads Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, revealing that the DOGE team is already hard at work on strategic priorities. With over 100 people on board, the team is preparing to enact immediate changes, including staff removals and regulatory rollbacks.

SHAWN RYAN: We’re both pretty fired up about the [Trump administration]. Who are you most excited about? Do you have anybody in particular?

JOE LONSDALE: I’m most excited about Elon, Vivek and the DOGE effort because this is something I’ve wanted to see for forever. I’m probably like one of the only guys in tech that’s done a lot in policy on the right, on the small government side for the last 10-20 years, and it’s like the world just shifted this way—like the vibe shift is exactly in line with stuff I’ve been thinking and talking about for a decade. I’m so excited about this.

SHAWN RYAN: How fast do you think they’re going to start cleaning this stuff up?

JOE LONSDALE: They’re already doing it, man. They can’t really officially do it yet, but they’re already making all the plans. There’s people working hard there. There’s guys picking me, ‘Joe, we need another engineer for this,’ ‘We’re trying to map this out,’ ‘We need more lawyers for this. They’re going right now as hard as they can and getting ready. It’s going to be really bold.

I think the way Elon works in general is just like, “What can we do right now, and then what can we do next? Let’s just focus on what we can do right now.” So they have what’s called their ‘Day One priorities,’ and they’re just focusing and sprinting on everything they could do day one. I think they’re going to have a lot of stuff ready for day one.

They’re bringing in at least well over 100 people for the DOGE effort, and they’re going to put a few of them directly into each agency. A lot of the transition team itself is hiring people to put into these jobs. There’s these policy placements that are all working with DOGE and being liaisons with DOGE. They’re going to come out of the gate with a bunch of general things—removing certain people, removing certain regulations. I can’t go into the details exactly of what they’re going to be doing, but it’s going to be really aggressive right from the start.”

Meanwhile, Lonsdale stressed the need to rebuild America’s manufacturing base.

“I’m concerned in general that we don’t have an advanced manufacturing base that’s nearly as big as it needs to be. I think from a geopolitical perspective it’s extremely dangerous and if we want to be ready—so in World War II it wasn’t that we had like a bunch of big defense contractors that we had a bunch of big industrial manufacturers and powers that were able to be shifted to do things for the war.”

“If we’ve basically gotten rid of a lot of that base and we need it back if we want to defend ourselves. So I think Trump is very good on this; he shifted it back. I think even his first term actually kind of turned the whole conversation in our country where a lot of people on both sides now agree we need to fix this. But this is where the tariffs against China, if they’re done correctly, are not totally insane at all. It makes a lot of sense to me,” he continued.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2024 – 15:05

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San Francisco Hires Obese ‘Body Positivity’ Activist To Work For Health Department

San Francisco Hires Obese ‘Body Positivity’ Activist To Work For Health Department

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

The San Francisco Department of Public Health has hired a self-described “unapologetically fat” body positivity activist to consult on “weight stigma and weight neutrality.”

No, this isn’t a Babylon Bee story.

“I’m unbelievably proud to serve the city I’ve called home for almost 20 years in this way!” Virgie Tovar posted on Instagram.

“This consultancy is an absolute dream come true, and it’s my biggest hope and belief that weight neutrality will be the future of public health.”

‘Weight neutrality’ is the absurd notion that a person’s overall health is more important than their weight, despite the fact that being overweight is directly connected to a myriad of health problems.

Tovar, who is very clearly obese, describes herself on social media as an “unapologetically fat fat-positive feminist who fights against the weight-loss industry” and recently wrote an article for Forbes about “how to host a size-inclusive Thanksgiving.”

Tovar also runs DEI corporate training days based around combating ‘weight-based discrimination in the workplace’ and has previously advocated “radical body positivity for girls of colour.”

Another ‘weight bias training course’ she held for government workers was designed to decrease “stigma around food and bodies” in the workplace and instructed employees not to talk about exercise while at work.

She also previously criticized health professionals for pressuring her to lose weight.

The Telegraph approached the San Francisco Department of Public Health for comment on whether Tovar’s position is salaried or funded by taxpayer money, but so far has received no response.

“San Francisco is thought to be among the first city health departments in America to hire a weight stigma tsar,” reports the newspaper.

As we highlight in the video below, numerous prominent ‘body positivity’ activists who were severely overweight or obese died from, you guessed it, illnesses related to being overweight.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2024 – 14:45

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A Tsunami Of Executive Orders

A Tsunami Of Executive Orders

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

An important feature of Trump’s second term will be his actions on the first day. Trump will sign a flurry of executive orders (EOs) on the day he is sworn in (January 20, 2025) and the following day. The exact number is not known but it will easily be 50 orders or more.

The official number of each Executive Order is also not known in advance because they will have to be processed under the Administrative Procedures Act and published in the Federal Register. The Office of the Federal Register is the agency that assigns numbers to each Executive Order. This is done sequentially. But they will be effective immediately.

Trump’s executive orders have already been drafted for the most part. Some are still undergoing legal review, some are being tweaked from a policy perspective, and some are being debated internally as to whether they should even go forward. Some EOs may be pulled from the pile if counsel decides that legislation is required to achieve the intended purpose.

Each EO is presented to the president in a separate blue leather binder with the Seal of the President of the United States stamped in gold on the cover. Joe Biden signed about 50 EOs on the day he was sworn in (January 20, 2021), mostly reversing Trump’s policies. Here’s how that looked at his desk in the Oval Office:

You may notice that Biden has a rack of pens in front of him. Each EO is signed with a different pen and then the pens are handed out to supporters of the President as gifts. Now you can visualize Trump (without the mask) sitting at the same desk in the Oval Office with perhaps an even taller pile of binders signing away on EOs to reinstate Trump policies, establish new policies and abolish as many of Biden’s policies as possible. The best quick guide to Trump’s first 100 days is to consider the EOs he will sign on day one of his second term.

Here’s a summary broken out by policy area:

Immigration

  • Restore the “remain in Mexico” program so immigrants will have to wait in Mexico while any U.S. asylum applications are pending.

  • Build the wall.

  • End the policy of making children of illegal immigrants automatic U.S. citizens if born in America. End so-called “birthright citizenship.”

  • Mass deportation of illegal immigrants starting with terrorists, and criminals.

Energy & Climate Change

  • Open Federal lands to oil and natural gas exploration. Same for offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, offshore Atlantic and Pacific coasts and Alaska.

  • Roll back emissions standards on internal combustion engines (ICE) on U.S. automobiles.

  • Roll back tougher rules on emissions from U.S. power plants.

  • End incentives on electric vehicle (EV) production.

  • Halt windmill projects.

  • Withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement.

  • End the transition of military vehicles to “clean or alternative” energy.

Military and Defense

  • Demand the resignation of all Generals who were involved in the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

  • Demand the resignation of all Generals who supported Mark Milley’s DEI and woke policies.

  • End transgender surgery and treatments and paid abortions for military service members.

  • Reinstate rank and seniority for military members forced out because they refused COVID shots.

Social Policy and Wokeness

  • Ban biological men from women’s sports to preserve Title IX.

  • Abolish “diversity, equity and inclusion” (DEI) initiatives and offices.

  • Fire special counsels investigating Trump and end all federal prosecutions of Trump and close associates.

  • Pardon J6 defendants awaiting trial and those already convicted if they did not engage in violence on January 6, 2021.

  • Launch investigations of progressive DAs around the country for violating the civil rights of Americans.

Of course, this is just the tip of the iceberg. Trump can be expected to sign many more EOs and launch numerous legislative initiatives over the subsequent days and weeks.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2024 – 14:05

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McDonald’s French Fry Supplier Warns Demand Sputtering, Sends Shares Crashing 

McDonald’s French Fry Supplier Warns Demand Sputtering, Sends Shares Crashing 

A major McDonald’s french fry supplier missed its second-quarter earnings and slashed full-year guidance for the second consecutive time this year as demand for frozen potato products sputtered, sending shares in premarket crashing lower. 

For the quarter that ended Nov. 24, Lamb Weston posted adjusted earnings of 66 cents a share, which missed analyst estimates of $1.02 a share, according to Bloomberg. 

Challenging macroeconomic conditions in the quarter were blamed on higher-than-expected manufacturing costs and sliding fry demand.  

Here’s a snapshot of 2Q earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Adjusted EPS 66c, estimate $1.02

Adjusted Ebitda $281.9 million, estimate $330.2 million

  • North America adjusted Ebitda $266.7 million, estimate $295.2 million

Net sales $1.60 billion, estimate $1.67 billion

  • North America net sales $1.07 billion, estimate $1.1 billion
  • International net sales $528.8 million, estimate $568.5 million

Volume -6%, estimate -2.76%

  • North America volume -5%
  • International volume -6%
  • Price/mix -2%, estimate -0.91%
  • North America price/mix -3%

Our financial results in the second quarter were below our expectations,” Tom Werner, President and CEO, wrote in a statement, adding, “Higher-than-expected manufacturing costs and softer volumes accounted for the shortfall, while price/mix and operating expenses were broadly in line with our targets for the quarter.”

The dismal quarterly results led the the company to cut its full-year guidance for the second straight quarter:

  • Sees adjusted EPS $3.05 to $3.20, saw $4.15 to $4.35, estimate $4.23 (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Sees adjusted Ebitda $1.17 billion to $1.21 billion, saw low end of $1.38 billion to $1.48 billion, estimate $1.36 billion
  • Sees net sales $6.35 billion to $6.45 billion, saw $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion, estimate $6.65 billion

Werner’s outlook for next year is complicated, and implies that cash-strapped fast-food customers are merely downsizing their meals in the era of elevated inflation

“In terms of the broader operating environment, we expect challenging conditions to persist through the remainder of fiscal 2025 and into fiscal 2026, driven primarily by an accelerating rate of capacity additions and continued near-term softening of global frozen potato demand below historical rates, particularly outside North America, until demand trends improve and capacity expansion normalizes. As a result, we are reducing our fiscal 2025 financial targets.” 

In a separate news release, the French fry maker announced that CEO Werner would be replaced by Michael Smith, the company’s chief operating officer. 

The Wall Street Journal revealed in mid-October that activist investor Jana Partners built a 5% stake in the company and would push for a sale. 

To combat a major slowdown in sales, McDonald’s revamped its meal deal targeting working-class and middle-class customers who could no longer afford soaring Big Mac prices due to the inflation storm sparked by failed ‘Bidenomics.’ The meal deal ignited a value menu war with other major quick-service restaurants. Now, the burger chain is planning a complete overhaul of its value menu in early 2025.

Trouble for the Golden Arches resulted in a crash share price for Lamb Weston, -17% in premarket trading in New York.

Meanwhile, MCD resistance building at $300. 

Great news for Jana Partners—this plunge in prices gives their traders an opportunity to purchase more stock at lower prices.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2024 – 09:15

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Global Conditions Portend A Catch-Down In America

Global Conditions Portend A Catch-Down In America

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

For $20,000, you can buy a global airline pass to see the world. Or, for the low price of free, you can take a quick trip with us worldwide. Unfortunately, our global trip is not as exciting as an around-the-world pass. Still, it may enlighten you about some economic struggles abroad. Moreover, why, in time, they may be problematic for the US.

China, Britain, Europe, and other countries and regions are experiencing sluggish economic growth and, in some cases, contraction. At the same time, the US continues its strong post-pandemic growth pace. Has the US economy diverged from the global economy, or are a lot of economic canaries in coalmines keeling over and warning the US is soon to catch down?

Globalization

Before summarizing economic conditions in a few major economies, it’s worth appreciating that globalization has tightly bonded the economic activity of the US and developed nation’s economies.

The graph below, courtesy of the IMF, shows that the amount of international trade as a percentage of global GDP is at the highest level since at least 1870. We venture to say it’s the highest ever. The recent upward trend starting in 1944 is the result of the dollar becoming the world’s reserve currency.

Based on data from the World Bank, the following graph shows powerful statistical economic relationships between the US and other nations and economic regions. The number beside each country in the X-axis is their global GDP rank.

Other than Japan, the correlation between the real GDP of the US and that of every nation and region shown has increased over the last ten years compared to the prior twelve-year period. Equally important, the relationship between the US economy and the European Union, OECD nations, and the rest of the world is incredibly high. Those three aggregates exclude the US in their computations.

The graph below further highlights the strong relationships that globalization has brought upon US economic activity.

Regression Analysis Confirms Economic Globalization

Lastly, we created a multiple regression model to predict US real GDP based on the real GDP of the ten nations we highlighted in the prior graphs. Our model has an R-square of .886, denoting a significant statistical relationship.

The graph below compares the US real GDP versus the model’s output. The difference between the US GDP and the model averages slightly less than half a percent annually and doesn’t vary beyond +/- 1%.

The US economy is tied at the hip to the global economy and economies of leading developed economies. Very short-term divergences occur, but barring a change to the world trade order or another round of massive US stimulus, it’s improbable that recent divergences will last.

Note: The data for the following graphs is through 2023; thus, it does not include 2024. Our discussion of economic divergence between the US and other nations primarily pertains to more recent data.

Britain

Britain’s real GDP, as shown below, courtesy of the BBC, has contracted for two months in a row. Furthermore, it has shown no growth since June.

Personal consumption is a contributor to weak UK growth. Per Bloomberg:

A big drag on the economy was consumer-facing services, where output tumbled 0.6%, including a 2% decline in pubs and restaurants. It suggests that households tightened their belts, possibly fearing a squeeze from the budget. 

Consumer sentiment in Britain is poor. Its citizens are worried about above-average inflation and high interest rates. More recently, consumers appear to be pulling back due to increased proposed fiscal spending that will be funded with higher taxes and borrowing.

As with most nations, the fear of US tariffs weighs on UK consumer and business sentiment.

Lastly, it is worth noting that Britain’s real GDP growth in 2023 was a mere 0.10%. The nation has barely grown in two years!

Europe

The European Union faces challenges similar to those faced by Britain. Europe’s economic powerhouse, Germany, saw its real GDP decline last year, and contraction will likely continue this year.

One large differentiator between paltry European growth and growth in the US is in the fiscal response to the pandemic. The US flooded its economy with stimulus during and well after the initial sting of the pandemic. Consumers were provided with funds and many other financial benefits, and the CHIPS Act fed infrastructure and manufacturing projects, further bolstering growth. While the European Union and its nations also stimulated economic activity, the amounts were much less. Per the Atlantic:

The UK and Germany spent more than $500 billion. France spent $235 billion, Italy $216 billion. But the United States was in a league of its own, spending an astonishing $5 trillion on pandemic relief. That’s more, even in today’s dollars, than America spent on the New Deal and World War II combined—and, crucially, it’s more than double what most European countries spent on pandemic relief relative to the sizes of their respective economies.

Further, consider that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact it has on energy prices is also to blame for sluggish growth along with a host of other political and social factors.

China

Before the financial crisis, China had grown its economy by 10-15% yearly. While remarkable, it was unsustainable. Since then, growth has slowed substantially, albeit it’s still high compared to most developed nations. From 2020 to 2023, its real GDP growth was a relatively low 4.1%. It is expected to remain below 5% for the remainder of this year and next year.

The nation is dealing with a credit hangover following decades of significant economic growth driven partly by massive infrastructure investment. Vacant cities and properties across China are leading to a decline in real estate activity, which once accounted for a significant portion of GDP. Construction and related industries have been negatively impacted, as has consumer sentiment.

Simultaneously, the country has a shrinking workforce and an aging population. Moreover, it faces weaker global export demand amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly with the US. Trade restrictions and the post-pandemic redirection of global supply chains away from Chinese manufacturing have negatively impacted key industrial sectors. Lastly, business confidence is eroding due to recent government policies, including regulatory crackdowns on tech firms and mixed signals on private-sector stimulus.

High levels of corporate debt and local government borrowing have further limited fiscal flexibility, making the government’s recent spate of stimulus packages much less effective than prior stimulus. China’s bond investors are taking notice. As shown below, its ten-year sovereign bond yield is now below 2%, the lowest in history.

China, once the world’s marginal driver of economic growth, is exporting their economic slowdown across the globe.

Canada

We shared the following paragraph and graph from our recent Commentary on Canada:

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark rate by 50bps. They have now cut by 150 bps in 2024, compared to what will likely be 100 bps for the Fed after next week’s meeting. Unlike the Fed, Canada’s central bank is fighting off a recession. Canadian real GDP for the last four quarters has been below 1%. Its unemployment rate troughed in January 2022 at a fifty-year low of 4.9%. However, since then, it has risen steadily to 6.8%. The Canadian dollar has been trading at its lowest levels compared to the US dollar since 2016 (excluding the pandemic).

We should pay attention because the US economy and Canada are extremely closely linked despite being different. The biggest differentiator is that Canada’s economy relies much more heavily on commodities and manufacturing, while the US is more service-sector-oriented. Despite the differences, there has been a historically tight economic relationship between Canada and the US, as shown below.

High interest rates and sluggish oil prices weigh on Canada’s economic growth. Unlike China, they are experiencing population growth. However, its growth masks economic weakness. Per The Fraser Institute:

Canada’s recent growth record has received so much attention because it is, quite simply, abysmal. One recent analysis noted that due to weak total growth accompanied by a surging population, Canada has actually been in a “per capita” recession for some time. Per-person GDP has declined by 3.4 percent in inflation-adjusted terms between the second quarter of 2022 and the final quarter of 2023.

Summary

We could summarize economic conditions in other developed countries, and in almost all cases, we would provide you with themes similar to those we share above. The takeaway is not necessarily the particulars of each country and region but the recent rare economic growth divergence between the US and the world.

The enormous pandemic and post-pandemic stimulus by the US government is a key factor explaining the difference. The US provided more stimulus on a GDP basis than all major developed economies. The stimulus was in the form of emergency payments, which had limited duration benefits. However, it also came in longer-lasting forms like the CHIPS Act and loan forgiveness programs, which continues to bolster growth.

Indeed, significant federal deficit spending has helped offset much higher interest rates and stubborn inflation. Consumer confidence remains weary, but consumers continue to spend as the labor markets are relatively healthy. While all may seem well, we are growing concerned that headwinds to growth, including the global economy and high interest rates, will weigh on the US economy.  

As we wrote earlier, “Very short-term divergences occur, but barring a change to the world trade order or another round of massive US stimulus, it’s improbable that recent divergences will last.”

It’s more likely the US economy will catch down to the global economy!

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2024 – 08:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/lGbyUoP Tyler Durden

Pound Slides After “Dovish Hold” By Bank of England

Pound Slides After “Dovish Hold” By Bank of England

One day after the Fed’s furiously hawkish pivot, which prompted many to ask why cut rates if Powell will just complain about the risk of rising inflation (thanks to his bizarro jumbo rate cut just three months ago which it is now clear was entirely meant to usher in president Kamala), moments ago the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, as expected, but with more policymakers voting for a cut than had been expected, one which sent the pound lower as this was seen as a dovish hold as three members wanted a cut, while the market expected an 8-1 split.

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision, which was in line with economists’ forecasts, came a day after the latest data showed that UK inflation rose to 2.6% last month from 2.3% in October.

The BoE cut rates by a quarter point at its previous meeting in November, but signalled at the time that another cut was unlikely until 2025. It has cut rates twice in 2024.

The majority of rate-setters said the recent increase in wage and price growth had “added to the risk of inflation persistence”. But three out of the nine MPC members, deputy governor Dave Ramsden, Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra , voted for a quarter-point reduction because of sluggish demand and a weaker labor market. For the market, which was expecting just 1 dissenter, this was seen as a rather dovish twist.

The BOE said that a “gradual approach” on rate cuts remains right and they can’t commit to when or by how much rates will be cut in 2025. It said the labor market is coming back into balance. However, the bulk of the committee continued to worry that inflationary pressures were resolving only slowly and in fact headline inflation is expected to rise slightly. The overall guidance remained that policy needed to stay restrictive for sufficiently long to bring inflation back to target.

“The magnitude and direction of any such impacts would depend on a range of factors that were at present unknown, including the total package of economic policies to be delivered in the United States, their timing and any subsequent policy responses from other countries” the bank noted.

They said that risks around trade policy uncertainty have “increased materially” given the proposals from the incoming Trump administration on tariffs.

The minutes to the BOE December meeting showed that staff now expect zero growth in the final quarter of this year, weaker than forecast in November, reaffirming the dovish stance.

“Most indicators of UK near-term activity have declined,” the bank said on Friday.

It added that risks to global growth and inflation from geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty had “increased materially” — an apparent reference to US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to increase tariffs on imports to the US.

The BoE also continues to be skeptical about official wage data – on which markets placed huge emphasis earlier in the week. It said while earnings data did pick up in October, the official number “has tended to be more volatile than other wage indicators”. In fact, it said the information from its regional agents suggested 2025 settlements are likely to be in the 3-4% range (vs. ONS data at north of 5% in October).

In terms of forward guidance the MPC stuck to its previous message of gradual approach to easing. In terms of changes in assessment from the last meeting, the Committee noted that while inflation outcomes have been slightly higher than expected, it now judges that the labour market is “broadly in balance”. On the activity side, the MPC now expects 0% q/q GDP growth in Q4, below the November MPR projections

To re-iterate our call assumes that following a pause today, the Bank will cut again (-25bp) in February. Overall, we expect the Bank to cut with quarterly frequency in H1-25 before accelerating to cutting at every meeting in H2-25 brining Bank Rate to 3.25% by end-25.

The pound dipped to $1.259 after the BoE’s decision, though it was still up 0.2% on the day.

The yield on rate-sensitive two-year government bonds fell slightly to 4.46 per cent, flat on the day, with analysts citing the unexpectedly high number of dissents within the MPC.

Traders also have been reining in expectations of cuts next year. Immediately before Thursday’s MPC meeting, investors were betting on two quarter-point cuts next year. In October they had expected four.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2024 – 07:43

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Houthis Claim Hypersonic Missile Strike On Israel, Prompting IDF Airstrikes On Yemen

Houthis Claim Hypersonic Missile Strike On Israel, Prompting IDF Airstrikes On Yemen

Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed on X that Iran-backed Yemeni Armed Forces launched two hypersonic ballistic missiles targeting military sites in the Jaffa region near Tel Aviv. Israel reported intercepting the missile strike, which was followed hours later by Israeli fighter jets pounding key infrastructure in Yemen. 

“Statement of the Yemeni Armed Forces regarding the implementation of a qualitative military operation targeting two qualitative and sensitive military targets of the Israeli enemy in the occupied Jaffa region with two hypersonic ballistic missiles of the Palestine 2 type,” Saree wrote on X (translated via Google). 

Israel’s military announced the interception of a missile launched from Yemen: “Rocket and missile sirens were sounded following the possibility of falling debris from the interception,” adding that a missile had been intercepted before entering Israeli airspace. 

“I urge the leaders of the Houthi organization to see, to understand and to remember: whoever raises a hand against the state of Israel, his hand will be cut off,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said, referring to the retaliatory strikes. 

AP News reported that Israeli retaliatory airstrikes were in “two waves of strikes in a preplanned operation that began early Thursday and involved 14 fighter jets.”

“The military said the first wave of strikes targeted Houthi infrastructure at the ports of Hodeida, Salif and the Ras Isa oil terminal on the Red Sea,” AP noted, adding, “Then, in a second wave of strikes, the military said its fighter jets targeted Houthi energy infrastructure in Sanaa.”

US forces were active in the skies of Yemen to start the week, launching a series of strikes on the Houthi rebels, according to US Central Command. 

Thursday’s exchange of strikes between the Iranian-backed Houthis and Israel implies that Tehran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” remains active in the region, with the potential to escalate further. The rebels maintain a firm hold on the critical maritime chokepoint in the southern Red Sea.

In the short term, the threats to the homeland are rising, as described by Dr. Mahmut Cengiz, an Associate Professor and Research Faculty with Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University: 

“Radicalized Hamas members may increasingly look to Al-Qaeda as a more viable destination for their operations, given Al-Qaeda’s growing capabilities and its strategic ties to Iran. This shift could significantly strengthen Al-Qaeda’s position in the region, making it an even more formidable threat to Western and Israeli interests in the future.” 

Given the turmoil in the Middle East and the Biden-Harris administration’s disastrous handling of the region, the risk of a domestic attack is undoubtedly rising. Open borders have allowed an invasion of illegal aliens, some of whom may be pre-trained terrorists. Voters gave Trump a clear mandate: restore national security.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2024 – 07:20

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Disney Cuts Transgender Storyline From New Pixar Children’s Series

Disney Cuts Transgender Storyline From New Pixar Children’s Series

We’ve come a long way from 2016, the unofficial launch of the woke invasion into every facet of American pop-culture and entertainment.  Eight years ago progressives denied that such a conspiracy existed and attacked anyone pointing out the contrary.  Then they admitted that the woke conspiracy existed but argued that anyone against it was a bigot and a fascist.  Today, the agenda is so thoroughly exposed and opposed by the majority of the public that, finally, corporations are starting to reverse course and return to some semblance of normalcy.

Disney has been one of the worst culprits behind the far-left takeover of media and it’s unclear how much they will actually change in order to win back their audience (if such a thing is possible).  There are signs, however, that the “House of Mouse” is finally realizing that Get Woke, Go Broke cannot be defeated.

Disney embedded a transgender child storyline in their new Pixar produced series “Win Or Lose” – An animated show about a co-ed middle school softball team.  However, a spokesperson for Disney confirmed that the story arc was eliminated and provided the following statement to The Hollywood Reporter:

“When it comes to animated content for a younger audience, we recognize that many parents would prefer to discuss certain subjects with their children on their own terms and timeline.”

This is quite a change from Disney’s position a few years ago when creators joked about implanting as much queer propaganda as they could get away with.  Disney’s war on parental rights in Florida is now regarded as the moment the company nearly self-destructed.  

The introduction of trans ideology and gender fluid theory into children’s entertainment has been a red line for American parents and the attempted woke grooming of children in public schools is often cited as one of the primary reasons for Donald Trump’s election win.  

Gender fluidity has no basis in scientific reality.  Most of the supposed studies supporting the trend are funded by the very same pharmaceutical companies that make money selling puberty blockers.  There is no such thing as a transgender child – Only children manipulated by their parents and teachers into believing they are something they’re not.

Chanel Stewart, the voice actor whose character’s story arc has been changed in ‘Win or Lose’ claims to be a transgender woman. “From the moment I got the script, I was excited to share my journey to help empower other trans youth. I knew this would be a very important conversation. Trans stories matter, and they deserve to be heard.”

In content for kids, trans stories really don’t need or deserve to be heard.  The attempt to normalize what amounts to a political movement to sexually confuse and sterilize children will likely be regarded in the future as one of the darkest chapters in human history.    

Films and streaming media projects often take years to fund, produce and distribute.  It should be noted that while there have been multiple woke projects released in 2024 (almost all of them complete failures), most of this content got the green light back in 2020-2021 while the culture war was still at its peak.  Today it’s unlikely that new woke content will continue to get funding and many DEI departments within these companies are being shut down, but it may take another few years before we see the results.  For now, this is a good start.   

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2024 – 06:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/eAqzB5D Tyler Durden

Where Syria’s Six Million Refugees Live

Where Syria’s Six Million Refugees Live

The lightning offensive by various Syrian rebel groups that led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on Sunday, December 8, 2024, has sparked a wave of hope among Syrians who have sought refuge outside their borders since the start of the civil war in 2011.

In Turkey, a country currently hosting more than three million Syrian refugees according to data from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there were scenes of joy after the end of five decades of a bloody dictatorship established by Hafez al-Assad and perpetuated by his son Bashar. In the past few days, hundreds of Syrian refugees have already made their way to the Turkish border crossings of Cilvegozu and Oncupinar, as well as to the Masnaa border crossing between Lebanon and Syria.

However, as Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, while the fall of the Assad dictatorship has restored a little hope to the Syrian people, the living conditions of refugees in neighboring countries also contribute to this wave of returns. This is the case in Lebanon, which hosts over 770,000 Syrians registered with the UNHCR, the vast majority of whom are living in extremely difficult conditions, worsened by an enduring economic crisis.

Infographic: Where Syria's Six Million Refugees Live | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

But this long-awaited return to the country and the political transition underway are fraught with difficulties. Syria now finds itself in the grip of new power dynamics, with various factions currently controlling different regions of the country. Added to this is the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the new ruling order led by Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, founder and leader of the al-Nusra Front, which became the Levant Liberation Organization (Hayat Tahri al-Sham, HTC) in 2017, a group belonging to the Salafist jihadist movement.

“A peaceful transition is essential to enable refugees to return home safely,” said Rula Amin, spokeswoman at UNHCR’s Regional Office for the Middle East, “respect for human rights and the safety of all people, regardless of their ethnicity or religion, are essential.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/19/2024 – 05:45

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