iftttwall

A major McDonald’s french fry supplier missed its second-quarter earnings and slashed full-year guidance for the second consecutive time this year as demand for frozen potato products sputtered, sending shares in premarket crashing lower. 

For the quarter that ended Nov. 24, Lamb Weston posted adjusted earnings of 66 cents a share, which missed analyst estimates of $1.02 a share, according to Bloomberg. 

Challenging macroeconomic conditions in the quarter were blamed on higher-than-expected manufacturing costs and sliding fry demand.  

Here’s a snapshot of 2Q earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Adjusted EPS 66c, estimate $1.02

Adjusted Ebitda $281.9 million, estimate $330.2 million

• North America adjusted Ebitda $266.7 million, estimate $295.2 million

Net sales $1.60 billion, estimate $1.67 billion

• North America net sales $1.07 billion, estimate $1.1 billion
• International net sales $528.8 million, estimate $568.5 million

Volume -6%, estimate -2.76%

• North America volume -5%
• International volume -6%
• Price/mix -2%, estimate -0.91%
• North America price/mix -3%

“Our financial results in the second quarter were below our expectations,” Tom Werner, President and CEO, wrote in a statement, adding, “Higher-than-expected manufacturing costs and softer volumes accounted for the shortfall, while price/mix and operating expenses were broadly in line with our targets for the quarter.”

The dismal quarterly results led the the company to cut its full-year guidance for the second straight quarter:

• Sees adjusted EPS $3.05 to $3.20, saw $4.15 to $4.35, estimate $4.23 (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Sees adjusted Ebitda $1.17 billion to $1.21 billion, saw low end of $1.38 billion to $1.48 billion, estimate $1.36 billion
• Sees net sales $6.35 billion to $6.45 billion, saw $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion, estimate $6.65 billion

Werner’s outlook for next year is complicated, and implies that cash-strapped fast-food customers are merely downsizing their meals in the era of elevated inflation: 

“In terms of the broader operating environment, we expect challenging conditions to persist through the remainder of fiscal 2025 and into fiscal 2026, driven primarily by an accelerating rate of capacity additions and continued near-term softening of global frozen potato demand below historical rates, particularly outside North America, until demand trends improve and capacity expansion normalizes. As a result, we are reducing our fiscal 2025 financial targets.” 

In a separate news release, the French fry maker announced that CEO Werner would be replaced by Michael Smith, the company’s chief operating officer. 

The Wall Street Journal revealed in mid-October that activist investor Jana Partners built a 5% stake in the company and would push for a sale. 

To combat a major slowdown in sales, McDonald’s revamped its meal deal targeting working-class and middle-class customers who could no longer afford soaring Big Mac prices due to the inflation storm sparked by failed ‘Bidenomics.’ The meal deal ignited a value menu war with other major quick-service restaurants. Now, the burger chain is planning a complete overhaul of its value menu in early 2025.

Trouble for the Golden Arches resulted in a crash share price for Lamb Weston, -17% in premarket trading in New York.

Meanwhile, MCD resistance building at $300. 

Great news for Jana Partners—this plunge in prices gives their traders an opportunity to purchase more stock at lower prices.

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

For $20,000, you can buy a global airline pass to see the world. Or, for the low price of free, you can take a quick trip with us worldwide. Unfortunately, our global trip is not as exciting as an around-the-world pass. Still, it may enlighten you about some economic struggles abroad. Moreover, why, in time, they may be problematic for the US.

China, Britain, Europe, and other countries and regions are experiencing sluggish economic growth and, in some cases, contraction. At the same time, the US continues its strong post-pandemic growth pace. Has the US economy diverged from the global economy, or are a lot of economic canaries in coalmines keeling over and warning the US is soon to catch down?

Globalization

Before summarizing economic conditions in a few major economies, it’s worth appreciating that globalization has tightly bonded the economic activity of the US and developed nation’s economies.

The graph below, courtesy of the IMF, shows that the amount of international trade as a percentage of global GDP is at the highest level since at least 1870. We venture to say it’s the highest ever. The recent upward trend starting in 1944 is the result of the dollar becoming the world’s reserve currency.

Based on data from the World Bank, the following graph shows powerful statistical economic relationships between the US and other nations and economic regions. The number beside each country in the X-axis is their global GDP rank.

Other than Japan, the correlation between the real GDP of the US and that of every nation and region shown has increased over the last ten years compared to the prior twelve-year period. Equally important, the relationship between the US economy and the European Union, OECD nations, and the rest of the world is incredibly high. Those three aggregates exclude the US in their computations.

The graph below further highlights the strong relationships that globalization has brought upon US economic activity.

Regression Analysis Confirms Economic Globalization

Lastly, we created a multiple regression model to predict US real GDP based on the real GDP of the ten nations we highlighted in the prior graphs. Our model has an R-square of .886, denoting a significant statistical relationship.

The graph below compares the US real GDP versus the model’s output. The difference between the US GDP and the model averages slightly less than half a percent annually and doesn’t vary beyond +/- 1%.

The US economy is tied at the hip to the global economy and economies of leading developed economies. Very short-term divergences occur, but barring a change to the world trade order or another round of massive US stimulus, it’s improbable that recent divergences will last.

Note: The data for the following graphs is through 2023; thus, it does not include 2024. Our discussion of economic divergence between the US and other nations primarily pertains to more recent data.

Britain

Britain’s real GDP, as shown below, courtesy of the BBC, has contracted for two months in a row. Furthermore, it has shown no growth since June.

Personal consumption is a contributor to weak UK growth. Per Bloomberg:

A big drag on the economy was consumer-facing services, where output tumbled 0.6%, including a 2% decline in pubs and restaurants. It suggests that households tightened their belts, possibly fearing a squeeze from the budget. 

Consumer sentiment in Britain is poor. Its citizens are worried about above-average inflation and high interest rates. More recently, consumers appear to be pulling back due to increased proposed fiscal spending that will be funded with higher taxes and borrowing.

As with most nations, the fear of US tariffs weighs on UK consumer and business sentiment.

Lastly, it is worth noting that Britain’s real GDP growth in 2023 was a mere 0.10%. The nation has barely grown in two years!

Europe

The European Union faces challenges similar to those faced by Britain. Europe’s economic powerhouse, Germany, saw its real GDP decline last year, and contraction will likely continue this year.

One large differentiator between paltry European growth and growth in the US is in the fiscal response to the pandemic. The US flooded its economy with stimulus during and well after the initial sting of the pandemic. Consumers were provided with funds and many other financial benefits, and the CHIPS Act fed infrastructure and manufacturing projects, further bolstering growth. While the European Union and its nations also stimulated economic activity, the amounts were much less. Per the Atlantic:

The UK and Germany spent more than $500 billion. France spent $235 billion, Italy $216 billion. But the United States was in a league of its own, spending an astonishing $5 trillion on pandemic relief. That’s more, even in today’s dollars, than America spent on the New Deal and World War II combined—and, crucially, it’s more than double what most European countries spent on pandemic relief relative to the sizes of their respective economies.

Further, consider that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact it has on energy prices is also to blame for sluggish growth along with a host of other political and social factors.

China

Before the financial crisis, China had grown its economy by 10-15% yearly. While remarkable, it was unsustainable. Since then, growth has slowed substantially, albeit it’s still high compared to most developed nations. From 2020 to 2023, its real GDP growth was a relatively low 4.1%. It is expected to remain below 5% for the remainder of this year and next year.

The nation is dealing with a credit hangover following decades of significant economic growth driven partly by massive infrastructure investment. Vacant cities and properties across China are leading to a decline in real estate activity, which once accounted for a significant portion of GDP. Construction and related industries have been negatively impacted, as has consumer sentiment.

Simultaneously, the country has a shrinking workforce and an aging population. Moreover, it faces weaker global export demand amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly with the US. Trade restrictions and the post-pandemic redirection of global supply chains away from Chinese manufacturing have negatively impacted key industrial sectors. Lastly, business confidence is eroding due to recent government policies, including regulatory crackdowns on tech firms and mixed signals on private-sector stimulus.

High levels of corporate debt and local government borrowing have further limited fiscal flexibility, making the government’s recent spate of stimulus packages much less effective than prior stimulus. China’s bond investors are taking notice. As shown below, its ten-year sovereign bond yield is now below 2%, the lowest in history.

China, once the world’s marginal driver of economic growth, is exporting their economic slowdown across the globe.

Canada

We shared the following paragraph and graph from our recent Commentary on Canada:

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark rate by 50bps. They have now cut by 150 bps in 2024, compared to what will likely be 100 bps for the Fed after next week’s meeting. Unlike the Fed, Canada’s central bank is fighting off a recession. Canadian real GDP for the last four quarters has been below 1%. Its unemployment rate troughed in January 2022 at a fifty-year low of 4.9%. However, since then, it has risen steadily to 6.8%. The Canadian dollar has been trading at its lowest levels compared to the US dollar since 2016 (excluding the pandemic).

We should pay attention because the US economy and Canada are extremely closely linked despite being different. The biggest differentiator is that Canada’s economy relies much more heavily on commodities and manufacturing, while the US is more service-sector-oriented. Despite the differences, there has been a historically tight economic relationship between Canada and the US, as shown below.

High interest rates and sluggish oil prices weigh on Canada’s economic growth. Unlike China, they are experiencing population growth. However, its growth masks economic weakness. Per The Fraser Institute:

Canada’s recent growth record has received so much attention because it is, quite simply, abysmal. One recent analysis noted that due to weak total growth accompanied by a surging population, Canada has actually been in a “per capita” recession for some time. Per-person GDP has declined by 3.4 percent in inflation-adjusted terms between the second quarter of 2022 and the final quarter of 2023.

Summary

We could summarize economic conditions in other developed countries, and in almost all cases, we would provide you with themes similar to those we share above. The takeaway is not necessarily the particulars of each country and region but the recent rare economic growth divergence between the US and the world.

The enormous pandemic and post-pandemic stimulus by the US government is a key factor explaining the difference. The US provided more stimulus on a GDP basis than all major developed economies. The stimulus was in the form of emergency payments, which had limited duration benefits. However, it also came in longer-lasting forms like the CHIPS Act and loan forgiveness programs, which continues to bolster growth.

Indeed, significant federal deficit spending has helped offset much higher interest rates and stubborn inflation. Consumer confidence remains weary, but consumers continue to spend as the labor markets are relatively healthy. While all may seem well, we are growing concerned that headwinds to growth, including the global economy and high interest rates, will weigh on the US economy.  

As we wrote earlier, “Very short-term divergences occur, but barring a change to the world trade order or another round of massive US stimulus, it’s improbable that recent divergences will last.”

It’s more likely the US economy will catch down to the global economy!

One day after the Fed’s furiously hawkish pivot, which prompted many to ask why cut rates if Powell will just complain about the risk of rising inflation (thanks to his bizarro jumbo rate cut just three months ago which it is now clear was entirely meant to usher in president Kamala), moments ago the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, as expected, but with more policymakers voting for a cut than had been expected, one which sent the pound lower as this was seen as a dovish hold as three members wanted a cut, while the market expected an 8-1 split.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 6-3 to maintain #BankRate at 4.75%. Find out more: https://t.co/FWuXvEhN0R pic.twitter.com/9724Z6Edhd

— Bank of England (@bankofengland) December 19, 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision, which was in line with economists’ forecasts, came a day after the latest data showed that UK inflation rose to 2.6% last month from 2.3% in October.

The BoE cut rates by a quarter point at its previous meeting in November, but signalled at the time that another cut was unlikely until 2025. It has cut rates twice in 2024.

The majority of rate-setters said the recent increase in wage and price growth had “added to the risk of inflation persistence”. But three out of the nine MPC members, deputy governor Dave Ramsden, Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra , voted for a quarter-point reduction because of sluggish demand and a weaker labor market. For the market, which was expecting just 1 dissenter, this was seen as a rather dovish twist.

The BOE said that a “gradual approach” on rate cuts remains right and they can’t commit to when or by how much rates will be cut in 2025. It said the labor market is coming back into balance. However, the bulk of the committee continued to worry that inflationary pressures were resolving only slowly and in fact headline inflation is expected to rise slightly. The overall guidance remained that policy needed to stay restrictive for sufficiently long to bring inflation back to target.

“The magnitude and direction of any such impacts would depend on a range of factors that were at present unknown, including the total package of economic policies to be delivered in the United States, their timing and any subsequent policy responses from other countries” the bank noted.

They said that risks around trade policy uncertainty have “increased materially” given the proposals from the incoming Trump administration on tariffs.

The minutes to the BOE December meeting showed that staff now expect zero growth in the final quarter of this year, weaker than forecast in November, reaffirming the dovish stance.

“Most indicators of UK near-term activity have declined,” the bank said on Friday.

It added that risks to global growth and inflation from geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty had “increased materially” — an apparent reference to US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to increase tariffs on imports to the US.

The BoE also continues to be skeptical about official wage data – on which markets placed huge emphasis earlier in the week. It said while earnings data did pick up in October, the official number “has tended to be more volatile than other wage indicators”. In fact, it said the information from its regional agents suggested 2025 settlements are likely to be in the 3-4% range (vs. ONS data at north of 5% in October).

In terms of forward guidance the MPC stuck to its previous message of gradual approach to easing. In terms of changes in assessment from the last meeting, the Committee noted that while inflation outcomes have been slightly higher than expected, it now judges that the labour market is “broadly in balance”. On the activity side, the MPC now expects 0% q/q GDP growth in Q4, below the November MPR projections

To re-iterate our call assumes that following a pause today, the Bank will cut again (-25bp) in February. Overall, we expect the Bank to cut with quarterly frequency in H1-25 before accelerating to cutting at every meeting in H2-25 brining Bank Rate to 3.25% by end-25.

The pound dipped to $1.259 after the BoE’s decision, though it was still up 0.2% on the day.

The yield on rate-sensitive two-year government bonds fell slightly to 4.46 per cent, flat on the day, with analysts citing the unexpectedly high number of dissents within the MPC.

Traders also have been reining in expectations of cuts next year. Immediately before Thursday’s MPC meeting, investors were betting on two quarter-point cuts next year. In October they had expected four.

Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed on X that Iran-backed Yemeni Armed Forces launched two hypersonic ballistic missiles targeting military sites in the Jaffa region near Tel Aviv. Israel reported intercepting the missile strike, which was followed hours later by Israeli fighter jets pounding key infrastructure in Yemen. 

“Statement of the Yemeni Armed Forces regarding the implementation of a qualitative military operation targeting two qualitative and sensitive military targets of the Israeli enemy in the occupied Jaffa region with two hypersonic ballistic missiles of the Palestine 2 type,” Saree wrote on X (translated via Google). 

بيان القوات المسلحة اليمنية بشأن تنفيذ عملية عسكرية نوعية استهدفت هدفين عسكريين نوعيين وحساسين للعدو الإسرائيلي في منطقة يافا المحتلة وذلك بصاروخين بالستيين فرط صوتيين نوع فلسطين2.
pic.twitter.com/N5wdOE5El7

— العميد يحيى سريع (@army21ye) December 19, 2024

Israel’s military announced the interception of a missile launched from Yemen: “Rocket and missile sirens were sounded following the possibility of falling debris from the interception,” adding that a missile had been intercepted before entering Israeli airspace. 

“I urge the leaders of the Houthi organization to see, to understand and to remember: whoever raises a hand against the state of Israel, his hand will be cut off,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said, referring to the retaliatory strikes. 

AP News reported that Israeli retaliatory airstrikes were in “two waves of strikes in a preplanned operation that began early Thursday and involved 14 fighter jets.”

“The military said the first wave of strikes targeted Houthi infrastructure at the ports of Hodeida, Salif and the Ras Isa oil terminal on the Red Sea,” AP noted, adding, “Then, in a second wave of strikes, the military said its fighter jets targeted Houthi energy infrastructure in Sanaa.”

US forces were active in the skies of Yemen to start the week, launching a series of strikes on the Houthi rebels, according to US Central Command. 

Thursday’s exchange of strikes between the Iranian-backed Houthis and Israel implies that Tehran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” remains active in the region, with the potential to escalate further. The rebels maintain a firm hold on the critical maritime chokepoint in the southern Red Sea.

In the short term, the threats to the homeland are rising, as described by Dr. Mahmut Cengiz, an Associate Professor and Research Faculty with Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University: 

“Radicalized Hamas members may increasingly look to Al-Qaeda as a more viable destination for their operations, given Al-Qaeda’s growing capabilities and its strategic ties to Iran. This shift could significantly strengthen Al-Qaeda’s position in the region, making it an even more formidable threat to Western and Israeli interests in the future.” 

Given the turmoil in the Middle East and the Biden-Harris administration’s disastrous handling of the region, the risk of a domestic attack is undoubtedly rising. Open borders have allowed an invasion of illegal aliens, some of whom may be pre-trained terrorists. Voters gave Trump a clear mandate: restore national security.

We’ve come a long way from 2016, the unofficial launch of the woke invasion into every facet of American pop-culture and entertainment.  Eight years ago progressives denied that such a conspiracy existed and attacked anyone pointing out the contrary.  Then they admitted that the woke conspiracy existed but argued that anyone against it was a bigot and a fascist.  Today, the agenda is so thoroughly exposed and opposed by the majority of the public that, finally, corporations are starting to reverse course and return to some semblance of normalcy.

Disney has been one of the worst culprits behind the far-left takeover of media and it’s unclear how much they will actually change in order to win back their audience (if such a thing is possible).  There are signs, however, that the “House of Mouse” is finally realizing that Get Woke, Go Broke cannot be defeated.

Disney embedded a transgender child storyline in their new Pixar produced series “Win Or Lose” – An animated show about a co-ed middle school softball team.  However, a spokesperson for Disney confirmed that the story arc was eliminated and provided the following statement to The Hollywood Reporter:

“When it comes to animated content for a younger audience, we recognize that many parents would prefer to discuss certain subjects with their children on their own terms and timeline.”

This is quite a change from Disney’s position a few years ago when creators joked about implanting as much queer propaganda as they could get away with.  Disney’s war on parental rights in Florida is now regarded as the moment the company nearly self-destructed.  

The introduction of trans ideology and gender fluid theory into children’s entertainment has been a red line for American parents and the attempted woke grooming of children in public schools is often cited as one of the primary reasons for Donald Trump’s election win.  

Gender fluidity has no basis in scientific reality.  Most of the supposed studies supporting the trend are funded by the very same pharmaceutical companies that make money selling puberty blockers.  There is no such thing as a transgender child – Only children manipulated by their parents and teachers into believing they are something they’re not.

Chanel Stewart, the voice actor whose character’s story arc has been changed in ‘Win or Lose’ claims to be a transgender woman. “From the moment I got the script, I was excited to share my journey to help empower other trans youth. I knew this would be a very important conversation. Trans stories matter, and they deserve to be heard.”

In content for kids, trans stories really don’t need or deserve to be heard.  The attempt to normalize what amounts to a political movement to sexually confuse and sterilize children will likely be regarded in the future as one of the darkest chapters in human history.    

Films and streaming media projects often take years to fund, produce and distribute.  It should be noted that while there have been multiple woke projects released in 2024 (almost all of them complete failures), most of this content got the green light back in 2020-2021 while the culture war was still at its peak.  Today it’s unlikely that new woke content will continue to get funding and many DEI departments within these companies are being shut down, but it may take another few years before we see the results.  For now, this is a good start.   

The lightning offensive by various Syrian rebel groups that led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on Sunday, December 8, 2024, has sparked a wave of hope among Syrians who have sought refuge outside their borders since the start of the civil war in 2011.

In Turkey, a country currently hosting more than three million Syrian refugees according to data from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there were scenes of joy after the end of five decades of a bloody dictatorship established by Hafez al-Assad and perpetuated by his son Bashar. In the past few days, hundreds of Syrian refugees have already made their way to the Turkish border crossings of Cilvegozu and Oncupinar, as well as to the Masnaa border crossing between Lebanon and Syria.

However, as Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, while the fall of the Assad dictatorship has restored a little hope to the Syrian people, the living conditions of refugees in neighboring countries also contribute to this wave of returns. This is the case in Lebanon, which hosts over 770,000 Syrians registered with the UNHCR, the vast majority of whom are living in extremely difficult conditions, worsened by an enduring economic crisis.

You will find more infographics at Statista

But this long-awaited return to the country and the political transition underway are fraught with difficulties. Syria now finds itself in the grip of new power dynamics, with various factions currently controlling different regions of the country. Added to this is the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the new ruling order led by Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, founder and leader of the al-Nusra Front, which became the Levant Liberation Organization (Hayat Tahri al-Sham, HTC) in 2017, a group belonging to the Salafist jihadist movement.

“A peaceful transition is essential to enable refugees to return home safely,” said Rula Amin, spokeswoman at UNHCR’s Regional Office for the Middle East, “respect for human rights and the safety of all people, regardless of their ethnicity or religion, are essential.”

Via The Mind Unleashed,

Imagine if humanity’s future were slipping through our fingers—literally. For decades, the world has been fixated on the threats we can see: climate change, pandemics, economic upheaval. Yet, quietly, an invisible crisis has been brewing inside our bodies. Sperm counts in men have plummeted by nearly 50% worldwide in just a few decades. This isn’t science fiction; it’s happening right now.

The implications are staggering. Fertility rates are dropping, and with them, questions about the long-term health of the human race loom larger than ever. Dr. Hagai Levine, a leading researcher on the subject, called it a “canary in a coal mine” moment, warning, “We have a serious problem on our hands that could threaten the survival of humanity.”

But why is this happening? And what can we do about it? To understand the gravity of this issue, we need to look at the numbers, the causes, and most importantly, the solutions. This isn’t just a men’s health crisis – it’s a call for global action.

How Big Is the Problem? The Numbers Don’t Lie

The numbers are as stark as they are shocking. According to a comprehensive 2022 meta-analysis led by Dr. Hagai Levine and published in the journal Human Reproduction Update, sperm counts among men worldwide have declined by an alarming 51.6% between 1973 and 2018. This means that within just a few decades, average sperm counts have dropped from 101 million per milliliter to 49 million per milliliter—a figure perilously close to the threshold of infertility.

What’s even more concerning is the pace at which this decline is accelerating. Between 1973 and 2000, sperm counts were dropping by approximately 1.1% per year. However, since 2000, that rate has more than doubled, with an annual decline of 2.6%. As Dr. Levine explains, “This is a major public health crisis that demands urgent global action.”

A Worldwide Phenomenon

What makes this trend particularly alarming is its global scale. Initially, research focused primarily on men from Western countries like the United States and Europe, but recent studies have confirmed that this decline is not confined to one region. Men from South America, Asia, and Africa are also experiencing significant reductions in sperm count.

While the numbers vary slightly between regions, the downward trend remains consistent, signaling a universal issue rather than an isolated anomaly. This global reach underscores the urgency of understanding what is driving the decline and what can be done to address it.

Beyond the Numbers

The implications of this decline extend far beyond fertility concerns. Sperm count has long been considered a biomarker for overall male health. A lower count can often signal underlying health problems, including hormonal imbalances, chronic diseases, and even an increased risk of mortality. In other words, the sperm crisis isn’t just about reproduction—it’s a reflection of men’s declining health worldwide.

But why is this happening? What factors are conspiring to drive this unprecedented drop in sperm counts across the globe? To understand the full scope of this crisis, we need to look deeper into the environmental, lifestyle, and societal factors at play.

Unpacking the Causes: What’s Really Going On?

The dramatic decline in sperm counts isn’t just a biological curiosity—it’s a symptom of deeper systemic issues tied to our environment, lifestyle, and modern habits. While researchers are still piecing together the full puzzle, several key factors have emerged as likely culprits behind this global crisis. One of the most pressing concerns is the increasing presence of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in our everyday lives. Found in plastics, pesticides, and even personal care products, EDCs interfere with the body’s hormonal balance.

Substances like bisphenol A (BPA) and phthalates mimic or block hormones, particularly testosterone, which is critical for sperm production. Dr. Shanna Swan, a prominent epidemiologist, highlights this issue in her work, stating that exposure to these chemicals during fetal development can have lasting effects on male fertility. Lifestyle factors also play a significant role. Rising levels of obesity, poor diets, and sedentary habits have created a perfect storm for declining reproductive health. High-fat, processed foods, coupled with low physical activity, can lead to metabolic issues that negatively impact sperm quality.

Stress and poor sleep habits further exacerbate the problem, contributing to hormonal imbalances that disrupt sperm production. Environmental pollution adds another layer of complexity. Airborne toxins, heavy metals, and microplastics are increasingly linked to reproductive health issues. Studies have shown that men living in heavily polluted areas often have significantly lower sperm counts compared to those in cleaner environments. This suggests that environmental degradation is not only a global problem but also a deeply personal one affecting human health.

While these factors highlight individual vulnerabilities, the broader societal implications cannot be ignored. Modern conveniences and industrial advancements have come at a cost, introducing chemicals and pollutants into every facet of daily life. The result? A steady decline in male reproductive health that mirrors humanity’s larger environmental struggles. The causes may be varied, but they point to one undeniable truth: this crisis is largely man-made. Understanding the underlying factors is the first step toward addressing them—but solutions will require sweeping changes in how we interact with our bodies and our environment.

Why Should You Care? The Bigger Picture

The steep decline in sperm count goes far beyond fertility issues—it reflects a deeper crisis in public health and societal stability. Studies have shown that low sperm counts often correlate with other health problems, including reduced testosterone levels, obesity, and an increased risk of chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. These associations suggest that declining sperm health is not just an isolated problem but part of a broader pattern of declining male health.

On a societal level, the implications are equally concerning. Falling fertility rates are already straining economies in countries like Japan and South Korea, where aging populations outnumber younger generations. If sperm counts continue to decline at their current pace, more nations may face similar demographic challenges, leading to labor shortages, reduced economic growth, and increasing pressure on healthcare systems.

This isn’t just a men’s health crisis—it’s a global health concern that touches everyone. Addressing the root causes is essential, not just for preserving fertility but for safeguarding the health and well-being of future generations. The decline in sperm count is a wake-up call that demands immediate attention, both on an individual and systemic level.

What Can Be Done? Practical Steps and Solutions

The alarming decline in sperm count may seem overwhelming, but there are actionable steps individuals and societies can take to address the issue. While reversing decades of environmental and lifestyle changes will take time, small shifts can make a significant difference.

On a personal level, lifestyle improvements are key. A balanced diet rich in antioxidants, healthy fats, and essential nutrients can promote sperm health. Foods like nuts, seeds, fish, and vegetables have been shown to support reproductive health. Regular exercise, managing stress, and avoiding smoking or excessive alcohol consumption are also critical in maintaining hormonal balance and sperm quality.

Reducing exposure to harmful chemicals is another essential step. Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs), found in plastics, pesticides, and even cosmetics, are major contributors to declining fertility. Simple changes, such as using glass containers instead of plastic, eating organic produce, and choosing natural personal care products, can help minimize exposure.

At a societal level, stricter regulation of harmful substances is crucial. Governments and industries need to prioritize reducing the use of chemicals like BPA and phthalates, which disrupt hormonal health. Public health campaigns that raise awareness about the impact of pollution and unhealthy lifestyles on fertility are also essential for driving collective action.

Turning Awareness Into Action

The decline in sperm count is a complex and urgent challenge, but it’s also an opportunity to make meaningful changes. This issue is not just about reproductive health; it reflects the broader impact of modern lifestyles and environmental choices on human well-being. By addressing the root causes—chemical exposure, poor lifestyle habits, and environmental degradation—we can pave the way for a healthier future.

Experts like Dr. Shanna Swan and Dr. Hagai Levine emphasize the need for global action, not just on a personal level but through systemic change. Governments must regulate harmful substances more strictly, industries need to adopt safer practices, and individuals can play their part by making healthier lifestyle choices.

The path forward requires awareness, collaboration, and decisive action. The crisis of declining sperm counts is a warning, but it’s also a chance to rewrite our future. Humanity has faced monumental challenges before, and with the right steps, this too can be addressed. The time to act is now—for the health of individuals, families, and the generations to come.

The state of illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing has worsened globally since 2021, according to the 2023 IUU Fishing Risk Index. In 2023, the global IUU score was 2.28 out of 5 (where 5=worst and 0=best), up from 2.24 in 2021. While only a small change, this highlights how there has been no notable progress in overall global IUU fishing risk in recent years.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, China was the worst performing country of 2023 with a high 3.69 out of 5. While China also held this unenviable position in 2021 and 2019, the country has improved slightly since the last report, when it scored 3.86 (2021).

You will find more infographics at Statista

Between 2021 and 2023, 54 countries improved their scores (i.e. had a lower risk), with the most improved nations including Argentina, Seychelles and Trinidad and Tobago, while five countries retained the same score and 93 countries saw their scores decline.

The countries with the greatest declines in their overall ranking were Peru, Sri Lanka and Papua New Guinea.

In 2023, China, Russia, Taiwan, South Korea, Ukraine and Yemen remained on the list of the 10 worst-performing countries, while India, Iran, Indonesia and Comoros joined the roundup.

The index analyzes 152 countries with a maritime coastline based on 40 indicators falling under categories such as coastal responsibilities (economic zones), flag responsibilities (managing fleets) and port responsibilities (checking catch).

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The collapse of Germany shocks many. But I have been discussing why this was inevitable for over a decade…

Germany Is Unraveling Just When Europe Needs It Most

Bloomberg reports Germany Is Unraveling Just When Europe Needs It Most

Germany is reaching a point of no return. Business leaders know it, the people in the country feel it, but politicians haven’t come up with answers.

That has set Europe’s largest economy on a path of decline that threatens to become irreversible.

Following five years of stagnation, Germany’s economy is now 5% smaller than it would have been if the pre-pandemic growth trend had been maintained.

More worryingly, Bloomberg Economics estimates that the bulk of the shortfall will be tough to recover, due to structural blows such as the loss of cheap Russian energy and Volkswagen AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG struggling to keep pace with China’s auto firms. The decline in national competitiveness means every household is worse off by about €2,500 ($2,600) a year.

To revive competitiveness, Germany ultimately needs to spend more. Just to catch up with other advanced economies, the country will have to increase annual investment on infrastructure and other public goods by about a third to €160 billion, according to Bloomberg Economics. That’s a rise equivalent to more than 1% of GDP.

The private sector has also held back. Expenditures on machinery are more than 9% below pre-pandemic levels. A recent survey among family-owned companies showed nearly half aren’t even planning to replace what breaks, blaming bureaucracy and unpredictable policies. That’s effectively a no-confidence vote in an economy fighting to retain its status as third-largest in the world.

Collapse of the German Government

Yesterday, I noted The German Government Collapses, Early Elections Are Coming up

Chancellor Olaf Scholz [SPD party] lost a confidence vote on Monday leaving a deeply fragmented Germany in his wake.

The only thing an election will do is shift the power from one very unstable coalition to another very unstable coalition.

I ran the coalition math. It’s pathetic.

The current Traffic Light coalition is SPD, FDP, and the Greens. FDP might not get 5 percent of the vote to stay in parliament.

All of the parties rule out an alliance with AfD (reportedly Far Right) and BSW (reportedly Far Left). Combined, that is 22-25 percent of the total.

AfD and BSW have three things in common. They are both anti-immigration, anti-NATO, and anti-Green.

A failure of the last “Grand Coalition” SPD + Union (CDU/CSU) led to the failed traffic light coalition.

Another Grand Coalition cannot possibly solve anything.

Conflicting Agendas

The Wall Street Journal has these humorous insights on the German Government Collapse.

Opinion polls show the center-right Christian Democratic Union, led by veteran conservative politician and businessman Friedrich Merz, as the likely winner of the ballot on Feb. 23. Yet the party is unlikely to command a big enough majority to govern alone or with the FDP, the other center-right party in Parliament, and will likely need to form an alliance with one or several center-left parties, forcing it to dilute its pro-business and law-and-order agenda.

“Mr. Chancellor…you had your chance. You didn’t use that chance,” Merz said in Monday’s parliamentary debate. “And it applies today, as it does on Feb. 23, 2025: You, Mr. Scholz, don’t deserve the trust!”

Merz and Scholz have different solutions in mind. The current chancellor has called for bailouts and subsidies to save jobs and prop up struggling carmakers, while Merz has floated a menu of supply-side measures such as lower taxes, less bureaucracy and steps that would make it cheaper for businesses to reach Berlin’s climate goals.

How is that Grand coalition supposed to make sense?

Without AfD there is no coalition math that makes any sense. But SPD and CDU/CSU have ruled out working with AfD.

The entire structure is nonsensical because neither Merz nor Scholz make much sense.

Merz is still wedded to nonsensical climate goals while Scholz wants to prop up struggling automakers. Sheeeh.

Shocked? I’m Not

This is all so predictable. The only thing debatably shocking is how it too so long.

Flashback April 11, 2013: Eurozone Math; One Size Fits Germany; Door Number Two

Eurozone Math

• Germany was the primary beneficiary of the ECB’s “one size fits Germany” interest rate policy.
• It is mathematically impossible for every country to be an exporter like Germany
• It is mathematically impossible for one interest rate to work when there is a multitude of fiscal policies
• It is mathematically impossible for the euro to survive without a transfer mechanism of some sort from Germany to peripheral Europe, and Germany will not allow any transfer mechanisms
• It is mathematically impossible within the realm of the euro for Spain to be more like Germany, unless Germany is less like Germany
• Germany has ruled out everything that could possibly make the eurozone work.

Euro Architects and Politicians to Blame

I do not blame Germany. I blame all the architects of the euro. I also blame all the politicians making matters worse by trying to force their will on the markets. In that sense, I do blame Merkel, but I also blame Hollande, Sarkozy, Trichet, Draghi, and everyone else involved in this mess, past or present.

One Size Fits Germany (Until it Doesn’t)

The math of the matter is Germany benefited from the Euro and from the ECB’s “one size fits Germany” interest rate policy more than any other country.

As a direct result of the unstable eurozone treaty, sovereign interest rate imbalances, Target II imbalance, and trade imbalances are out of control. Germany and the other European creditor countries are owed money that cannot be paid back.

More Like Germany

For years Germany insisted the rest of Europe should be more like Germany.

Germany skimped on infrastructure. It has pathetic internet compared to the rest of Europe.

Germany did protect old aging industries, especially diesel engines which I discussed many times.

It’s now payback time.

April 28, 2018: Bosch Announces Better Diesel Engine: Sorry Germany, Diesel is Dead

Eurointelligence: This story reminds us of the German company that developed the last generation of analogue telephone exchanges in the 1990s, hoping to fight off the relentless advance of the digital technology. It was mature and stable. And probably with some technical advantages over the then still-not-fully-developed digital technologies. But it came too late.

Eurointelligence: We find it hard to believe that this technology can be introduced early enough and in sufficient quantities to prevent diesel bans in German and other European cities. And the latter is the reason for the acute sales crisis of diesel cars, which has turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy. At a time when the US and China are developing electrical smart cars, the fate of the ultimate diesel engine looks to be the same as that of the world’s best analogue telephone exchange.

May 9, 2018: More Diesel Cheating: Germany Concocts New Ways, Audi Caught, Halts Production

Confirming a report in news weekly Der Spiegel, Germany’s transport ministry told AFP it was investigating the use of a new “illegal defeat device” in some 60,000 Audi cars, half of which are driving on German roads.

September 4, 2024: Volkswagen’s Choice: Fire Union Workers and Cut Costs, or Go Bankrupt

The unions and government leaders are howling but what must be done will be done.

Now chancellor Sholz has called for bailouts and subsidies to save jobs and prop up struggling carmakers. What a hoot.

But the German auto industry is dead. It lags the US and China on EVs, on batteries, on energy, and on basic infrastructure.

For decades Germany subsidized doomed technologies like diesel and analog phones.

The ECB’s interest rate policy “One Size Fits Germany” led to a housing bubble crisis in Spain and a near blowup of Greece.

Now Greek bonds trade at lower yields than French bonds.

Inevitable De-Industrialization of Europe

On October 12, 2018 I discussed the Inevitable De-Industrialization of Europe

Merkel has lost control. She is no longer able to protect German industry.

The European Parliament just voted to cut CO2 emissions by 40%. The European ministers voted for a 35% reduction. The latter is binding.

On June 25, 2019 I commented Rise of the Greens = Deindustrialization of Germany

Germany’s Green party killed nuclear power. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, once a strong supporter of nuclear energy, reversed course in a nod to the Greens. It did her party, nor Germany, any good.

Diesel is dead, and rightfully so, but Germany is not prepared for it. The Greens are also after coal, GMOs, and in general big business.

Deindustrialization of Germany

The Greens are going to force the deindustrialization of Germany.

• They do not want coal
• They do not want nuclear
• They do not want diesel
• The do not want Round-Up
• They do not want GMOs
• They do not want Google, Amazon, or any other large organizations
• They do want low-skill immigration

Merkel Bashes Trump

Here’s a pretty amusing flashback from May 28, 2017: Merkel Bashes Trump, Wants Europe to Control Its Own Destiny: EU Hypocrites

If the EU was really serious about “leading the way” I suggest the EU should not be big hypocrites.

I propose a good start would be to stop tariffs on solar panels, ban diesel autos, and reverse Merkel’s ban on nuclear power, and embrace rather than banning Uber.

If Europe wants to save the world, let them.

The EU Will Lag on AI for the Same Reason it Lost on Phones and EVs

Returning to more recent history, please consider my February 4, 2023 post The EU Will Lag on AI for the Same Reason it Lost on Phones and EVs

EU vs US Explained

Microsoft alone will spend over three times what Germany as a country will spend. Factor in Google, Amazon, and the US defense industry. 

The EU likes to protect existing businesses. Germany cheated to protect legacy diesel engines for years.

On mundane matters like agriculture, France protects the small farm. 

The EU now has lawsuits against Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. The US leads because the EU would bust up any company before it got big enough to lead on anything. 

It’s the same story on artificial intelligence where Greens are hell bent on protecting rather than investing. 

And heaven forbid any European company get big enough to achieve anything. The EU would bust them all up in the name of competition. 

Four Fundamental Sets of Issues

1. The Euro itself

2. The EU

3. German Fiscal Policies

4. Governmental Structures

1: The Euro is fatally flawed. One interest rate for Greece, Germany, Spain, 20 nations in all, does not work. Productivity in Greece is not the same as Germany. Pensions and work rules are vastly different. There is no single eurobond like there are US Treasuries. Instead, Germany has bonds, Greece has bonds, France has bonds. The ECB rules out default. But if that was the case, there should be no differences in bond yields. Target2 Imbalances put a spotlight on the issue. That link is from 2012. I have been discussing these issue and how it relates to Germany for at least that long. To make any treaty changes all 20 nations have to agree.

2: The EU is structured such that it takes unanimous agreement to change anything not specifically allowed by treaty. A simple trade treaty with Canada took decades because one country held things up. France won’t budge on agricultural policy and a number of states including Germany won’t budge on eurobonds or fiscal debt brakes. The EU nannycrats do have energy policy authority and have made a total mess of things. The EU overregulates everything. And despite lagging the world on AI, it seems hell bent on regulating it to death. Google, Microsoft, Nvdia, Apple, and Tesla could not exist in the EU, because in the name of competition, the EU would have busted them apart before they amounted to anything.

3: Germany’s export model has crashed. It is no longer the leader in anything. German infrastructure is pathetic. Germany exported cars to China. Well guess what. China does not want those cars and the US doesn’t either. German leaders still want to protect its auto industry. Merkel destroyed Germany’s nuclear industry despite the fact that Germany is one of the safest places for nuclear plants based on fault data.

4: Review the German coalition math and conflicting goals I mentioned above. No math makes any sense. I have been writing about the failure of the Grand Coalition for a long time. That morphed into unsustainable Traffic Light Coalition that just collapsed. And now the only chance to get 50 percent is another Grand Coalition. And every country is saddled with Eurozone treaty rules as well as EU treaty rules.

5. The German constitution prohibits the types of changes needed to fix some of the problems. I discuss this in an addendum.

It’s Hopeless

The lead Bloomberg article in this post said “Europe’s largest economy on a path of decline that threatens to become irreversible.“

Threat? There is no threat. The entire Eurozone has been in an irreversible decline from the beginning because the structure of the Eurozone and EU are both fatally flawed.

Factor in country-specific issues and broken governments and it’s amazing that it took this long for as many issues to finally surface as they have in the past two years.

Even now, few have thought about the four fundamental issues that I just mentioned. And the treaties make things impossible to fix because every nation has to agree to rule changes.

The only unresolved issue is how much longer this foolish EU structure can last. I don’t know, and no one else does either, but perhaps Trump II brings it all to a head.

Addendum

I left off a 5th German issue, it’s constitutional court. The German constitution, in addition to the the Maastricht Treaty, mandates debt brakes, no debt comingling, etc.

There cannot be a eurobond until that is fixed (not that a eurobond makes any sense in the first place given the fragmented policies and work rules of various nations).

Instead, Germany is saddled with a broken target2 system in which all sovereign debt allegedly the same by treaty, but in practice isn’t, as noted by various sovereign bond yields. Implied odds of default are very different from what’s guaranteed by treaty.

Germany would like to fix EU agricultural issues but cannot because of a French veto. Every year for decades, world trade negotiations blow up because of France.

Germany (at least some political parties) would like to fix energy policy but cannot because of EU-wide rules set by the European Parliament and lack of internal agreement how.

Arguably energy is the most easiest problem to fix among those I discussed because it does not take 100 percent agreement to do so. However, addressing energy would take the European parliament and an internal German commitment to fix. Alternatively, Germany can tell the EP and European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyden (from Germany) to go to hell.

In the US, with its two-party political system, things can get only so crazy before someone comes along to fix at least some things. Trump will not be the savior his fans think, but he will fix some things.

Meanwhile, the US still has the largest, most free capital markets in the world. Europe has an unworkable, tangled mess of target2 and individual state bonds.

The center parties like SPD and CDU/CSU in Germany, and Macron’s party in France have imploded. Both governments are unworkable.

Euro apologists blame AfD, BSW, Le Pen in France, Vitor Orban in Hungary, and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands for being problems and causing unworkable governments.

In reality, all of these parties are a result, not a cause, of a fundamentally broken EU.

The only unresolved issue is how much longer this foolish EU structure can last before it implodes in a major treaty failure or currency crisis.

I don’t know, and no one else does either, but perhaps Trump II brings it all to a head.

One of the most revealing narratives that surfaced during the 2024 US election campaign was the argument from establishment journalists that the Constitution and the voting system might be allowing “too much freedom” for the general public.  How can this be true?  Progressive activists claim that voter choice can be manipulated by abuses of free speech (disinformation) and that without controls on that speech the Constitution essentially has a built in self destruct mechanism.

Outlets like the New York Times made these arguments specifically in reference to the presidential bid of Donald Trump.  Trump, leftists assert, represents the rise of “far-right fascism” in America and the normal rules of the democratic process no longer apply.  They argue that he must be stopped at all costs.  

One could dismiss all this rhetoric as the coping and seething of sore losers, but it goes well beyond that.  

The self destructing democracy theory would be interesting, except that it’s driven completely by the arrogance, elitism and biases of political leftists hellbent on keeping power for themselves.  When a group of people believes that they represent the totality of the “greater good” and that their ideas should never be questioned or challenged because to do so is akin to heresy, that’s what we call zealotry.  This is exactly what progressives have become – So much so that across the western world they have deemed themselves righteous enough to delay or sabotage the election process.

We covered this problem in detail in our recent article Democracy Is Dead: A Coup Against Right Wing Movements Is Underway In Europe, focusing primarily on the exploitation of fearmongering over Russia in order the overturn the recent Romanian election in which a “right wing” candidate won the first round.  The rise of populist and conservative movements has triggered a progressive and globalist scramble to shut down or silence opposition parties and prevent them from winning elections fair and square. 

This trend has extended into the UK, with the British Labour Party making a move to delay local elections for up to a year using a bizarre loophole.  The ploy comes at a time when the public approval ratings for Prime Minister Kier Starmer and the Labour Party are at record lows.

Through a process of “reorganization” of local councils into larger regional bodies, Labour says annual elections (held in May) could be delayed up to a year in order to give local governments time to handle mergers.  The timing could not be more suspect; Labour candidates are considered unelectable in most quarters of England and the leftists are certain to lose significant power.  

 

According to recent surveys only 26% of Britons think Starmer is doing a good job.  Over 53% are disappointed with the Labour Party and the rest are unsure.  The reasons for the unpopularity are obvious – Starmer has gone full authoritarian with the utter destruction of British free speech.  Native English people are not allowed to criticize third world immigration programs or political officials and such comments online are likely to inspire a visit from police.  Protests against open immigration have been essentially banned, with many fearing arrest simply for participating.  

The problem for the political left is that they have spent the better part of the past four years pontificating about how they are the “guardians” of democracy while the right wing is a threat to free elections.  They can’t be authoritarian and also allow normal elections to continue.  The public will simply vote them out of office at the first opportunity.    

These kinds of polling numbers signal the death knell of a political party and the leftists know it.  Nigel Farage’s Reform Party which launched in 2018 is on the rise, meaning progressive and globalist programs to forcefully introduce thousands of third world migrants into every rural and semi-rural county could be disrupted.  Furthermore, Reform leaders could also disrupt Starmer’s programs of censorship and intimidation, which is the only tool the Labour has left to stay in control.    

Leftists suggest that the common voter cannot be trusted to elect officials with their best interests in mind; they have to be forced to vote the right way (for leftist candidates).  The next stage is, of course, to delay or end elections altogether when the majority of the public is at odds with the ruling party’s agenda.