Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Consolidating Near All-Time High Ahead of Aug 1 Fork

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly/Daily

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) slid yesterday on more profittaking, and now sits just above where it had broken above the daily chart’s downchannel resistance. On the weekly chart, with last week’s massive rally, the BTC/USD appears potentially to be in the late stages of a bullish flag pattern. With the August 1st fork looming, and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD tiring, BTC/USD can be expected to continue consolidating today ahead of this key date. Although the negative weekly MACD crossover has proved a false signal for now, longer term bulls will want to see the weekly MACD cross back positively. Odds are quite good that a sustainable longer term BTC/USD bottom was found last week, especially with ETH/USD having rebounded off the key 61.8% Fib retrace of its rally since the beginning of the year.

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Weekly Technical Analysis

 

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Daily Technical Analysis

 

 

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Weekly/Daily

Ethereum (ETH/USD) slid yesterday on more profittaking, and now sits near where it had broken above the daily chart’s downchannel resistance. Although still vulnerable in the next several weeks to more downside as the weekly MACD remains in the early stages of a negative crossover, odds are quite good though that downside ahead of the Aug 1 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fork will be limited to the 61.8% Fib retrace of the rally from the beginning of the year, or to the low 2 weeks ago. The strong BTC/USD rally last week will continue providing some psychological support to ETH/USD, and key for ETH/USD bulls will be whether BTC/USD can break above what appears to be bull flag resistance (on its weekly chart).

ETHUSD (Ethereum) Weekly Technical Analysis

 

ETHUSD (Ethereum) Daily Technical Analysis

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Paul Craig Roberts On “The Conspiracy To Remove Trump From The Presidency”

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

US intelligence services, the Democratic Party, some Republicans including members of President Trump’s own government, and the presstitute US media are conspiring against American democracy and the President of the United States.

We know this from a public letter to Trump published today, July 24, 2017, on consortiumnews.com by Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity.

MEMORANDUM FOR: The President

 

FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

 

SUBJECT: Was the “Russian Hack” an Inside Job?

Executive Summary

Forensic studies of “Russian hacking” into Democratic National Committee computers last year reveal that on July 5, 2016, data was leaked (not hacked) by a person with physical access to DNC computers, and then doctored to incriminate Russia.

 

After examining metadata from the “Guccifer 2.0” July 5, 2016 intrusion into the DNC server, independent cyber investigators have concluded that an insider copied DNC data onto an external storage device, and that “telltale signs” implicating Russia were then inserted.

 

Key among the findings of the independent forensic investigations is the conclusion that the DNC data was copied onto a storage device at a speed that far exceeds an Internet capability for a remote hack. Of equal importance, the forensics show that the copying and doctoring were performed on the East coast of the U.S. Thus far, mainstream media have ignored the findings of these independent studies [see here and here].

 

Independent analyst Skip Folden, a retired IBM Program Manager for Information Technology US, who examined the recent forensic findings, is a co-author of this Memorandum. He has drafted a more detailed technical report titled “Cyber-Forensic Investigation of ‘Russian Hack’ and Missing Intelligence Community Disclaimers,” and sent it to the offices of the Special Counsel and the Attorney General. VIPS member William Binney, a former Technical Director at the National Security Agency, and other senior NSA “alumni” in VIPS attest to the professionalism of the independent forensic findings.

 

The recent forensic studies fill in a critical gap. Why the FBI neglected to perform any independent forensics on the original “Guccifer 2.0” material remains a mystery – as does the lack of any sign that the “hand-picked analysts” from the FBI, CIA, and NSA, who wrote the “Intelligence Community Assessment” dated January 6, 2017, gave any attention to forensics.

 

NOTE: There has been so much conflation of charges about hacking that we wish to make very clear the primary focus of this Memorandum. We focus specifically on the July 5, 2016 alleged Guccifer 2.0 “hack” of the DNC server. In earlier VIPS memoranda we addressed the lack of any evidence connecting the Guccifer 2.0 alleged hacks and WikiLeaks, and we asked President Obama specifically to disclose any evidence that WikiLeaks received DNC data from the Russians [see here and here].

 

Addressing this point at his last press conference (January 18), he described “the conclusions of the intelligence community” as “not conclusive,” even though the Intelligence Community Assessment of January 6 expressed “high confidence” that Russian intelligence “relayed material it acquired from the DNC … to WikiLeaks.”

 

Obama’s admission came as no surprise to us. It has long been clear to us that the reason the U.S. government lacks conclusive evidence of a transfer of a “Russian hack” to WikiLeaks is because there was no such transfer. Based mostly on the cumulatively unique technical experience of our ex-NSA colleagues, we have been saying for almost a year that the DNC data reached WikiLeaks via a copy/leak by a DNC insider (but almost certainly not the same person who copied DNC data on July 5, 2016).

 

From the information available, we conclude that the same inside-DNC, copy/leak process was used at two different times, by two different entities, for two distinctly different purposes:

-(1) an inside leak to WikiLeaks before Julian Assange announced on June 12, 2016, that he had DNC documents and planned to publish them (which he did on July 22) – the presumed objective being to expose strong DNC bias toward the Clinton candidacy; and

-(2) a separate leak on July 5, 2016, to pre-emptively taint anything WikiLeaks might later publish by “showing” it came from a “Russian hack.”

*  *  *

Unlike the CIA, NSA, and FBI, the veteran intelligence professionals performed forensic investigations. They found conclusive evidence that the alleged “Guccifer 2.0” July 5, 2016 intrusion into the DNC server [these are the emails that show the DNC working for Hillary against Sanders] was not hacked but leaked.

The leaked documents were copied onto an external storage device and doctored with a cut-and-paste job to implicate Russia as having hacked the documents.

In other words, the alleged hack was instead a copy from the inside that was subsequently doctored to reflect Russian origin.

The veteran intelligence professionals surmise that this was done in order to focus attention away from the embarrassing content of the emails, placing attention instead on “Russian interference in the US presidential election.”

As I see it, the success of this false and orchestrated story of Russian hacking, for which not a scrap of evidence exists, revealed to the military/security complex the opportunity to remove Trump and thus protect the oversized budget and power of the military/security complex that is threatened by Trump’s intention to normalize relations with Russia.

It revealed to the Hillary forces the opportunity to vindicate themselves with the argument that Russia stole the election for Trump.

It revealed to Israel the opportunity to put an end to Trump’s withdrawal of US interference in the Middle East, thus enabling Israel to continue to use the US military to clear away obstacles to Israeli expansion.

It provided the presstitutes, who hate Trump and “the deplorables” who elected him, with a headline story for months and months to be followed in their expectations with the story of Trump’s removal from the presidency.

The retired intelligence professionals are too circumspect to tell President Trump outright that a conspiracy is underway to remove him from office whether by impeachment or assassination by a right-wing “lone nut” enraged at the traitorous president, but this does seem to be the message between the lines. As I have provided the link to the letter, you can read it and come to your own conclusion.

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Singapore Startup Launches Cryptocurrency Debit Card

A Singapore startup called TenX has designed a Visa card capable of debiting users’ cryptocurrency wallets, allowing them to pay for goods at brick-and-motor merchants with bitcoin, Ethereum and a handful of other digital currencies, according to Bloomberg.

The question now is: Will anybody use it?

TenX’s business model is straightforward: It allows its users to pay for goods in a given fiat currency, then “instantly converts” cryptocurrency from their wallet into the amount needed to cover the transaction.

To be sure, this isn’t the first digital-currency debt card: Two other startups, CryptoPay and Xapo, are selling similar products that focus exclusively on bitcoin. Being limited to bitcoin is obviously problematic for traders who don’t want to miss out on a single tick of the broad-based crypto rally, which Goldman believes will carry BTC to the moon (or at least to $3,600) by year’s end. But TenX’s promise of “instantaneous conversion” is already tempting users. The company says it’s processing 100,000 transactions a month, which is significant, considering bitcoin and Ethereum combined have a market capitalization of about $60 billion. The owners of most of this wealth treat it like an investment, not a system for payments – and it’s that attitude that TenX will likely find to be the biggest obstacle in its quest to 100x its current volume to $100 million a month.

Another flaw: Transactions are capped at $2,000 a year though users can apply for a higher limit if they undergo identify verification, something that crypto enthusiasts might balk at. And with bitcoin’s future far from assured, picking the right mix of cryptocurrencies presents another business risk.

“TenX’s bid to make digital currencies easier to spend comes amid massive volatility and infighting within the cryptocurrency community. Bitcoin, the most popular, slumped after reaching a record in June amid concerns about a split in two, only to recover as fears faded. The company has built an app that serves as a digital wallet connected to the Visa card so that when it’s swiped at a cafe or restaurant, the merchant is paid in local currency and the users’ crypto account is debited.”

Despite its purported ease of use, even company officials admit that the network undergirding its system is complex – perhaps unnecessarily so. But on top of the 2% transaction fee it collects from merchants, customers only pay a 15 to 20 basis point conversion fee levied by the exchange.  

“’You’re mixing two worlds that are night and day,” co-founder Julian Hosp said in an interview. ‘When the user spends the cryptocurrency, we have to instantly switch these currencies to fiat and pay to Visa straight away. It’s a lot of pathways.’

 

Hosp said transactions are processed immediately and it doesn’t impose any charges on top of the conversion fee that is set by cryptocurrency exchanges, which typically is 0.15 to 0.2 percent. The card now supports eight digital currencies, including the lesser-known dash and augur, and aims to offer about 11 of them by the end of the year.”

TenX, like all companies working on payments solutions involving cryptocurrency, also risks being pushed out of the market by a larger rival with deeper pockets and more entrenched connections in the payments space.

“'TenX has an advantage in moving early, but the startup can expect competition in the future from major financial institutions and venture capitalists with deeper pockets and direct access to clients and databases,' said Mati Greenspan, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based analyst at social trading platform eToro.

 

‘It’s an incredible concept,’ said Greenspan. ‘At the end of the day, it’s going to depend a lot on customer relations. Are they meeting the customers’ expectations? Can somebody else do it better?’”

Last month, the firm raised $80 million worth of Ethereum through an initial coin offering. It plans to spend half of that money to expand, and the other half to launch its own digital-currency exchange. Before that, it raised $120,000 from angel investors and $1 million Fenbushi Capital, which lists Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin as a general partner.

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Bogus Fed Research Claim: “Gold Standard Didn’t Really Tame Inflation”

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The Wall Street Journal reports Gold Standard Didn’t Really Tame Inflation, New Research Says.

The research was by St. Louis Fed economist Fernando Martin. Curiously, his study precisely shows that the gold standard did indeed tame inflation.

Let’s investigate Martin’s bogus claim and his peculiar logic in making it.

In his email to the WSJ, Martin stated: “Most of the price increase in the period starting with World War II is due to two specific episodes.”

WWII was the first episode and the “1970s inflation episode was unambiguously the result of Fed policy blunders.” Supposedly, “the lessons learned from the experience helped central bankers start a multi-decadelong effort to lower inflation to historically low levels.”

I cannot tell if the second set of quotes is the WSJ view or Martin’s.

Martin’s Peculiar Logic

Here is Martin’s peculiar logic in explaining why the gold standard does not work: “You can still have high inflation with a metallic standard” because history shows governments regularly go off such regimes.

Got that? The gold standard won’t tame inflation because … the government won’t stick with it!

This is what constitutes critical research and absurd posting of said research by the Wall Street Journal.

CPI Since US Founding

Policy Error by the Fed

The article cited a “policy error” by the Fed as the cause of the stagflation period.

Actually, the policy error was Nixon closing the gold window on August 15, 1971, ending convertibility of gold for dollars. Our balance of trade soon went haywire, as did the explosion of credit and debt.

Balance of Trade

Total Credit

Median Home Prices

The preceding three slides from my June 24, Venture Alliance group presentation.

Not Properly Counting Inflation

The Fed does not count asset bubbles including housing in its absurd measure of inflation.

Moreover, Martin conveniently overlooks the Great Recession and all of the damage it did while the Fed was allegedly providing “stable inflation”.

Economic Challenge to Keynesians

Of all the widely believed but patently false economic beliefs is the absurd notion that falling consumer prices are bad for the economy and something must be done about them.

I have commented on this many times and have been vindicated not only by sound economic theory but also by actual historical examples.

  1. My article Deflation Bonanza! (And the Fool’s Mission to Stop It) has a good synopsis.
  2. My Challenge to Keynesians “Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit” has gone unanswered.

There is no answer because history and logic both show that concerns over consumer price deflation are seriously misplaced.

BIS Deflation Study

The BIS did a historical study and found routine deflation was not any problem at all.

Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated the study.

It’s asset bubble deflation that is damaging. When asset bubbles burst, debt deflation results.

Central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to defeat routine consumer price deflation is what fuels the destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse.

For a discussion of the BIS study, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Meanwhile, economically illiterate writers bemoan deflation, as do most economists and central banks. The final irony in this ridiculous mix is central bank policies stimulate massive wealth inequality fueled by soaring stock prices.

Deflation on Deck?

Is deflation on deck? Yes, asset deflation, a very destructive kind of deflation. When it happens, please thank the Fed for low inflation and volatility suppression.

Full Presentation

Click here to view my entire Venture Alliance Presentation, 38 slides in all.

Also, please consider Secular Disinflationary Trend Hits New Highs: Deflation on Deck? What’s That Mean for Gold?

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Bill Gross: A Recession Would “Probably Do The Economy Some Good”

Janus Portfolio Manager and purported “bond king” Bill Gross appeared on “Bloomberg Markets” to discuss his latest investor letter, in which he criticized loose-money policies of the world’s central banks, comparing them to gluttons who’ve feasted on bonds.

The unprecedented stimulus measures adopted by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and others have created distortions in markets, rendering widely followed historical models like the Philips Curve and Taylor rule useless, Gross said.

Because of the central banks’ bond-buying binge, which created $5 trillion of negative yielding sovereign debt, Gross said the yield curve my not need to flatten as much – i.e. short-term rates may not need to rise as aggressively – to trigger a slowdown in growth or even a recession.

“I still think interest rates should be raised to a more normal level in order to favor business models that are currently being hurt like pension funds and insurance companies and so on,” Gross said.

Counterintuitively, a slowdown might have more long-term benefits for the US economy than maintaining the status quo, according to Gross, who cited Joseph Schumpeter's theory about "creative destruction."

“I simply warned that based upon our historical knowledge of yield curve flattening between 3-month Treasuries and 10 year Treasuries we may not have to flatten as much as historically in order to produce a growth slowdown or a recession. I actually think that a slowdown or a recession would probably do the economy some good. You clear out some of the dead wood and you prevent forest fires. It’s the same with concepts such as Schumpeter’s creative destruction, or Minsky's conclusions from five or ten years ago,”

Hyman Minsky, an economist who spent his entire life in obscurity, but whose research found renewed relevance after the financial crisis, has been dead since 1996. But his "Minsky moment" theory – a study of how excessive debt levels can trigger an abrupt crash in asset valuations – has found renewed relevance.

As Gross explained in his letter, in an economy with record levels of corporate and consumer debt, the cost of short term financing shouldn’t need to rise to the level of a 10-year Treasury note to trigger a recession. Indeed, “proportionality” would suggest that short-term interest rates only need to increase modestly to trigger a marked slowdown in growth.

"Most destructive leverage – as witnessed with the pre-Lehman subprime mortgages – occurs at the short end of the yield curve as the cost of monthly interest payments increase significantly to debt holders. While governments and the U.S. Treasury can afford the additional expense, levered corporations and individuals in many cases cannot…But since the Great Recession, more highly levered corporations, and in many cases, indebted individuals with floating rate student loans now exceeding $1 trillion, cannot cover the increased expense, resulting in reduced investment, consumption and ultimate default. Commonsensically, a more highly levered economy is more growth sensitive to using short term interest rates and a flat yield curve, which historically has coincided with the onset of a recession."

In his letter, Gross argued that the Fed should proceed with caution. This fall, not only will investors be grappling with rising rates and the beginning of the Fed’s balance-sheet unwind, but a looming battle over raising the debt ceiling is already promising to inject more volatility into markets.

In a sign of investor dread surrounding the looming debt-ceiling battle, Treasuries expected to mature in mid-October have risen markedly in recent weeks, causing the 3mo-6mo curve to invert. The CBO has said the Treasury will run out of cash around then. Another sign that investors are worried about the short-term outlook for credit was Monday’s 3-month bill auction, which surprised the market with the highest yield since 2008.

Investors will hear more from the Fed tomorrow after the close of its two-day July policy meeting. Since there’s no press conference scheduled, investors will be on the lookout for clues surrounding the balance sheet.
 

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Pat Buchanan Asks “Are America’s Wars ‘Just And Moral’?”

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

“One knowledgeable official estimates that the CIA-backed fighters may have killed or wounded 100,000 Syrian soldiers and their allies,” writes columnist David Ignatius.

Given that Syria’s prewar population was not 10 percent of ours, this is the equivalent of a million dead and wounded Americans. What justifies America’s participation in this slaughter?

Columnist Eric Margolis summarizes the successes of the six-year civil war to overthrow President Bashar Assad.

“The result of the western-engendered carnage in Syria was horrendous: at least 475,000 dead, 5 million Syrian refugees driven into exile in neighboring states (Turkey alone hosts three million), and another 6 million internally displaced. … 11 million Syrians … driven from their homes into wretched living conditions and near famine.

 

“Two of Syria’s greatest and oldest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, have been pounded into ruins. Jihadist massacres and Russian and American air strikes have ravaged once beautiful, relatively prosperous Syria. Its ancient Christian peoples are fleeing for their lives before US and Saudi takfiri religious fanatics.”

Realizing the futility of U.S. policy, President Trump is cutting aid to the rebels. And the War Party is beside itself. Says The Wall Street Journal:

“The only way to reach an acceptable diplomatic solution is if Iran and Russia feel they are paying too high a price for their Syria sojourn. This means more support for Mr. Assad’s enemies, not cutting them off without notice. And it means building up a Middle East coalition willing to fight Islamic State and resist Iran. The U.S. should also consider enforcing ‘safe zones’ in Syria for anti-Assad forces.”

Yet, fighting ISIS and al-Qaida in Syria, while bleeding the Assad-Iran-Russia-Hezbollah victors, is a formula for endless war and unending terrors visited upon the Syrian people.

What injury did the Assad regime, in power for half a century and having never attacked us, inflict to justify what we have helped to do to that country?

Is this war moral by our own standards?

We overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003 and Moammar Gadhafi in 2012. Yet, the fighting, killing and dying in both countries have not ceased. Estimates of the Iraq civilian and military dead run into the hundreds of thousands.

Still, the worst humanitarian disaster may be unfolding in Yemen.

After the Houthis overthrew the Saudi-backed regime and took over the country, the Saudis in 2015 persuaded the United States to support its air strikes, invasion and blockade.

By January 2016, the U.N. estimated a Yemeni civilian death toll of 10,000, with 40,000 wounded. However, the blockade of Yemen, which imports 90 percent of its food, has caused a crisis of malnutrition and impending famine that threatens millions of the poorest people in the Arab world with starvation.

No matter how objectionable we found these dictators, what vital interests of ours were so imperiled by the continued rule of Saddam, Assad, Gadhafi and the Houthis that they would justify what we have done to the peoples of those countries?

“They make a desert and call it peace,” Calgacus said of the Romans he fought in the first century. Will that be our epitaph?

Among the principles for a just war, it must be waged as a last resort, to address a wrong suffered, and by a legitimate authority. Deaths of civilians are justified only if they are unavoidable victims of a deliberate attack on a military target.

The wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen were never authorized by Congress. The civilian dead, wounded and uprooted in Syria, and the malnourished millions in Yemen, represent a moral cost that seems far beyond any proportional moral gain from those conflicts.

In which of the countries we have attacked or invaded in this century — Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen — are the people better off than they were before we came?

And we wonder why they hate us.

“Those to whom evil is done/Do evil in return,” wrote W. H. Auden in “September 1, 1939.” As the peoples of Syria and the other broken and bleeding countries of the Middle East flee to Europe and America, will not some come with revenge on their minds and hatred in their hearts?

Meanwhile, as the Americans bomb across the Middle East, China rises. She began the century with a GDP smaller than Italy’s and now has an economy that rivals our own.

She has become the world’s first manufacturing power, laid claim to the islands of the East and South China seas, and told America to keep her warships out of the Taiwan Strait.

Xi Jinping has launched a “One Belt, One Road” policy to finance trade ports and depots alongside the military and naval bases being established in Central and South Asia.

Meanwhile, the Americans, $20 trillion in debt, running $800 billion trade deficits, unable to fix their health care system, reform their tax code, or fund an infrastructure program, prepare to fight new Middle East war.

Whom the Gods would destroy…

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Wall Street Agrees On When The Bull Market Will Finally End

US stock indexes remain at record highs, and volatility near its lows, despite signs that their recordsetting run is losing steam as it becomes increasingly dependent on a narrow band of stocks. Indeed, signs that the rally is running on fumes have convinced portfolio managers and Wall Street strategists that the second-longest bull market of all time will be over in less than 18 months, while a similarly longstanding rally in bonds is also nearly ready to roll over, according to a Bloomberg survey of fund managers and strategists.

“The poll of 30 finance professionals on four continents showed a lack of consensus on the asset judged as most vulnerable now, with answers ranging from European high yield to local-currency emerging-market debt – though they were mostly in the bond world. Among 25 responding to a question on the next U.S. recession, the median answer was the first half of 2019.”

Of the 21 participants who responded to Bloomberg's question of when they see a slide of more than 20 percent for the S&P 500 Index, the median response was the fourth quarter of 2018. Two forecast that the bear market would begin during the final three months of this year. Of the 21 respondents who forecast a bear market for credit, defined as a 1 percentage point jump in the premiums of US investment-grade corporate bond yields over comparable government-debt yields, the median pick was the third quarter of 2018.

According to Bloomberg, many of these strategists and portfolio managers see central bank policy as the lynchpin of their thesis, believing that years of easy-money policies have artificially inflated stock and bond valuations. By the beginning of 2019, US interest rates will have risen another 1.5 to 2 percentage points, and the central bank will have unwound at least part of the $4.5 trillion in Treasuries and MBS that the Fed purchased during the recession. Of course, this is hardly a coincidence, as Remi Olu-Pitan, who manages a multi-asset fund at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in London, explains.

Furthermore, it’s widely expected that the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will all have begun tapering asset purchases, raising interest rates – or possibly both. The Bank of Canada has already shocked market strategists by raising its benchmark rate for the first time in seve years, which it did earlier this month.

“Consequences could be very painful,” Olu-Pitan said. “We have had a liquidity-fueled bull market. If that is taken away, there is a pressure point,” she said.

Indeed, in a version of a chart that we’ve presented many times, there’s a tight correlation between equity gains and global central-bank stimulus.

None of the poll’s respondents expect a 2007-2009 style meltdown. But as is depicted by Bloomberg in the chart below, the 2002 bear market in US stocks wiped out more than $7 trillion of value.

To be sure, some Wall Street strategists believe a downturn in stock and bond markets could begin as soon as the third or fourth quarter of 2017.

According to Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, risks for equities are set to multiply in the third and fourth quarters. Hartnett said in a note published earlier this month that "the most dangerous moment for markets will be when rising rates combine in three or four months’ time with an inflection point in corporate profits. In anticipation of this, we would use the next couple of months to buy volatility, and within fixed income slowly reduce exposure to IG, HY, and EM bonds."

Atul Lele, chief investment officer at Nassau, Bahamas-based Deltec International Group, was the only respondent to the poll who ranked an economic collapse in China as his primary concern, followed by excessive Fed tightening.

All eyes are on the Fed this week as it prepares to deliver its July policy update on Wednesday. Investors will be looking for clues about when the great balance-sheet unwind will begin, after New York Fed Governor William Dudley, along with a few other officials, said that process would begin later this year.
 

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The “Who’s Who” Of Today’s Modern Jihadi Terrorist Groups

Via BattleSwarmBlog.com,

According to this Intel Center list, there are currently 43 worldwide terrorist groups which have pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and the Islamic State. I started wondering how many of those were active, how many weren’t covered by that list, and what was the most recent documented activity of each. Hence this list.

I started with the Intel Center list, found the most recent activity (if any) for the group listed, added a few groups I knew they were missing, and alphabetized the whole thing (it was originally group by country). I don’t speak Arabic, so this list is not alphabetized the way an Arab scholar might alphabetize it. I’ve given alternate names and spellings where known, but this information is almost certainly not complete. I’ve tried to distinguish between similarly named groups, but it’s still entirely possibly I’ve gotten something wrong. Terrorist groups form, splinter and die-off all the time.

File all this under “first cut,” “incomplete” and “work in progress.”

  • Abu Sayyaf Group [Philippines]: Attempts to arrest Abu Sayyaf head Isnilon Hapilon are what evidently set off the fighting in Marawi City.
  • al-Ansar Battalion [Algeria]: Defectors from al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), supposedly less than 10 fighters, and I see no evidence of recent activity. Not to be confused with other jihadist al-Ansar Battalions, such as those in the Syrian Free Army or the Ma’arakat al-Ansar Battalion in the Sulu archipelago of the Philippines.
  • al-Ghurabaa [Algeria]: No recent news. Not to be confused with the UK radical islamic group of the same name.
  • al-Huda Battalion in Maghreb of Islam [Algeria]: May have been absorbed into Soldiers of the Caliphate in Algeria (see below).
  • al-Shabaab Jubba Region Cell Bashir Abu Numan [Somalia]: Bashir Abu Numan was a commander for al Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab commander who defected to the Islamic State with some 20 fighters late in 2015, and who was later killed by al-Shabaab’s Amniyat death squads. Possibly moribund.
  • al-I’tisam of the Koran and Sunnah [Sudan]: Apparently no activity since January 2016, when some of its supporters were released from prison.
  • al-Tawheed Brigade in Khorasan [Afghanistan]: Not seeing any under that name, but there’s lots of news about “Islamic State in Khorasan,” namely fierce fighting against U.S. troops over the last four months, with their leader being killed in an air strike.
  • Ansar al-Islam [Iraq]: Appears to have merged with the Islamic State proper. Not to be confused with other groups named Ansar al-Islam, including a Bangladeshi group of that name affiliated with al Qaeda.
  • Ansar al-Khilafah [Philippines]: There are reports that some 40 Ansar al-Khilafah fighters joined Maute for the assault on Marawi City.
  • Ansar al-Tawhid in India [India]: Beyond issuing a call to kill non-Muslims in 2014, it does not seem to be very active.
  • Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) [Phillippines]: BIFF is another group that seems to be participating in the fighting on Mindanao, and members were covered in a recent Filipino Department of National Defense arrest orders.
  • Bangsmoro Justice Movement (BJM) [Phillippines]: BJM is a breakaway splinter from BIFF, and does not seem to have any notable activity since pledging allegiance to the Islamic State.
  • Boko Haram (AKA the Islamic State in West Africa, AKA Group of the People of Sunnah for Preaching and Jihad) [Nigeria]: Still very active, and participated in a running gun battle with police in Kano Sunday. Estimates of Boko Haram’s size range from 4,000 to 20,000 fighters.
  • Central Sector of Kabardino-Balakria of the Caucasus Emirate [Russia]: Can’t find any recent information. Presumably defectors from the crumbling Caucasus Emirate.
  • Djamaat Houmat ad-Da’wa as-Salafiya (DHDS) [Algeria]: Another Algerian terrorist group that does not seem to have done much of anything.
  • Faction of Katibat al-Imam Bukhari [Syria]: All the reports I can fund on Katibat al-Imam Bukhari seem to refer to them as an Uzbek Islamist group, some of which seem to be fighting in Syria under Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, AKA the Al-Nusra Front, which split off from the Islamic State, was at one time affiliated with al Qaeda, and now is theoretically independent of both.
  • Heroes of Islam Brigade in Khorasan [Afghanistan]: See al-Tawheed Brigade in Khorasan.
  • Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) [Pakistan/Uzbekistan]: Actively fighting U.S. troops in Afghanistan.
  • Islamic State in Afghanistan: Not in the Intel Center list. Actively fighting against both U.S. troops and the Taliban. Reported to have ties to the Pakistani ISI, which wouldn’t surprise me at all.
  • Islamic State Libya (Darnah) [Libya]: Egyptian warplanes hit them in May in response for their involvement in killing Egyptian Copts.
  • Islamic Youth Shura Council [Libya]: Evidently still active in 2017. “Established an Islamic court and police authority in Benghazi. The group is notorious for decapitating swaths of residents from both Derna and Benghazi.”
  • Jaish al-Sahabah in the Levant [Syria]: No recent news, possibly absorbed into the Islamic State or other factions in the Syrian civil war.
  • Jamaat Ansar Bait al-Maqdis (AKA Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, AKA Wilayat Sinai, AKA Ansar Jerusalem, AKA Ansar Jerusalem, AKA Supporters of the Holy Place) [Egypt]: Turned into the Sinai Province of the Islamic State. One of its members was killed by Egyptian security forces last week.
  • Jemaah Islamiyah [Philippines/Indonesia]: Very active in various bombing campaigns in Indonesia, but have evidently been relatively quiet since 2015.
  • Jemaah Anshorut (or Jamaah Ansharut) Tauhid (JAT) [Indonesia]: Evidently the successor to several other jihadist groups in Indonesia, Stratfor describes it as “sputtering,” and the pledge of allegiance to al-Baghdadi caused several members to split into still another terrorist group.
  • Jund al-Khilafah in Egypt [Egypt]: No recent news, probably merged into the Sinai Province of the Islamic State. See Jamaat Ansar Bait al-Maqdis.
  • Jund al-Khilafah in Tunisia [Tunisia]: They recently killed the brother of a shepherd they had also killed in 2015. But the group is also said to be gathering strength in the mountains.
  • Jundullah [Pakistan]: Jundullah carried out several attacks in Pakistan between 2012 and 2015, and is thought to be a member of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan umbrella jihadi group, not all of which have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. There’s a seperate Jundallah in Iran that has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda.
  • Khalid ibn al-Walid Army [Syria]. Not on Intel Center list. Syrian jihad group that merged with Martyrs of al-Yarmouk Brigade, also pledged loyalty to the Islamic State and reportedly controls territory in southern Syria along the Golan Heights.
  • Leaders of the Mujahid in Khorasan (ten former TTP commanders) [Pakistan]: Not finding any recent information on this splinter group.
  • Lions of Libya [Libya]: No news since they reportedly pledged their allegiance in 2014.
  • Liwa Ahrar al-Sunna in Baalbek [Lebanon]: Claimed credit for a car bomb attacked that killed a Hezbollah leader in 2014. (Remember, as a Shi’a militia/terrorist group, members of Hezbollah are automatically on the Islamic State’s “kill on sight” list.)
  • Martyrs of al-Yarmouk Brigade [Syria]: Evidently merged with other groups into the Khalid ibn al-Walid Army, which has also pledged loyalty to the Islamic State and reportedly controls territory in southern Syria.
  • Maute (AKA Islamic State in Lanao) [Philippines]: Not in the Intel Center list. The primary group responsible for the fighting in Marawi City. Reportedly led by brothers Omarkhayam and Abdullah Maute.
  • Mujahideen Indonesia Timor (MIT) (AKA East Indonesia Mujahideen EIM) [Indonesia]: Do not seem to have been active after their leader, Abu Wardah Santoso, was killed in 2016.
  • Mujahideen of Tunisia of Kairouan [Tunisia]: Not seeing any notable news since 2015, when they carried out a deadly beach attack.
  • Mujahideen of Yemen [Yemen]: Possibly absorbed into the Islamic State in Yemen (AKA Wilayat Sana) proper.
  • Mujahideen Shura Council in the Environs of Jerusalem (MSCJ) [Egypt/Gaza]: Intel Center says Egypt, other sources say they’re active only in Gaza. Since Hamas has not pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, they seem to have been pretty thoroughly suppressed there.
  • The Nokhchico Wilayat of the Caucasus Emirate [Russia]: Can’t find any recent information. Presumably defectors from the crumbling Caucasus Emirate.
  • Okba Ibn Nafaa Battalion [Tunisia]: Two members were killed in a raid by Tunisian forces, but they were described as “an al-Qaeda-linked group.”
  • Shura Council of Shabab al-Islam Darnah [Libya]: No news since significant defeats in 2014.
  • The Soldiers of the Caliphate in Algeria (AKA Jund al-Khilafah fi Ard al-Jazair, AKA Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Algeria Province) [Algeria]: It’s possible that the June 6 Paris hammer attacker may have been a member. If not, they seem to have been largely ineffective. “For the past two years, the Algerian military has stopped 44 members of a local armed group called ‘Soldiers of the Caliphate’ that swore allegiance to the leader of Daesh, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.”
  • Supporters for the Islamic State in Yemen [Yemen]: Like Mujahideen of Yemen, not a lot of news.
  • Supporters of the Islamic State in the Land of the Two Holy Mosques [Saudi Arabia]: Nothing since they shot a Danish national back in 2014.
  • Tehreek-e-Khilafat [Pakistan]: Though it has roots in a movement advocating resistance to British rule during World War I, evidently Tehreek-e-Khilafat has been amalgamated into Wilayat Khorasan, the South and Central Asian “chapter” of the Islamic State, along with “Khilafat Afghan (former Afghan Taliban), the Tehreek-e-Khilafat Pakistan (former TTP), Tehreek-e-Khilafat Khorasan (former TTP), the Omar Ghazi group, the Muslimdost group, the Azizullah Haqqani group (former Afghan Taliban), the Shamali Khilafat, the Jaish-ul-Islam, the Harakat Khilafat Baluch, the Mullah Bakhtwar group (former TTP), the Jaish-ul-Islam and the China-oriented Gansu Hui group created by WK members themselves.” Together they are thought to number some 1,000-3,000 fighters.

 

via http://ift.tt/2tXnysr Tyler Durden

Business Customers Are Tired Of Being Bilked Of Billions; Demand Rate Increases On Their Bank Deposits

As we’re all well aware by now, once Trump was elected on November 8th the Fed suddenly decided it was no longer necessary to prop up asset prices in the United States with artificially low interest rates.  As such, they’ve embarked on their first rate-hiking spree since the last one ended just over a decade ago. 

 

Meanwhile, in light of the fact that the Fed has raised rates by 75bps over the past 6 months, we recently wondered aloud just how long the big banks could continue to stiff Americans out of interest payments on their deposits.  As the Wall Street Journal points out today, despite three Fed rate hikes over the past several months, the average rate paid on deposits at the 16 largest banks in the U.S. has risen a paltry 10 bps.

Meanwhile, with nearly $12 trillion held in deposit accounts at U.S. commercial banks, each 25bps of foregone interest is costing depositors about $30 billion a year, all of which is flowing straight to the bottom line of the large banks.

 

In the end, we concluded that the banks would continue to suppress deposit rates for as long as their customers continued to ignore the fact that they were getting shafted but that, over the long haul, math and greed would prevail and depositors would demand higher rates.

Alas, it seems as though the “long haul” that we predicted has arrived well ahead of schedule…at least for business customers anyway.  As the Wall Street Journal points out today, corporate customers are starting to demand higher rates on deposits and, for the most part, the large banks are acquiescing.

Consumers are giving banks a pass when it comes to shopping for higher interest rates on deposit accounts. Businesses, on the other hand, are becoming more demanding.

 

With short-term interest rates on the rise, corporate depositors are seeking bigger payouts for their deposits, and big banks have started capitulating.

 

The reason: Small rate increases are often worth just pennies to many consumers, but they can translate into meaningful dollars on large corporate deposits of millions or even billions of dollars.

 

And companies have greater leverage with banks since in many cases they also bring in lucrative investment banking and trading business.

 

“The jig is up,” said James Gilligan, assistant treasurer at Kansas City, Mo.-based power company Great Plains Energy Inc. He said many companies, including his, have negotiated better deposit pricing with banks where they also borrow. Treasurers who have the flexibility to move their money are also seeking out higher rates.

Of course, the reality is that banking institutions offer fairly commoditized products with minimal differentiation and barriers to switching, aside from the pure hassle, are not that extensive.  So while banking executives may tout their position of power in negotiating to keep deposit rates lower for longer, in the end they’ll be forced to take whatever rate the market demands…

“The way we approach pricing these days is, we defend our turf,” says Tayfun Tuzun, chief financial officer at Fifth Third Bancorp , the Cincinnati-based bank. Mr. Tuzun said U.S. banks are also being pressured by competition from overseas banks that want to build their deposits. Some are willing to pay 1.25% or 1.3%, he said, while a typical corporate deposit rate for a large account in the U.S. currently is about 0.9% to 1%.

 

More corporate customers say that day is now passing. “A year ago, it was not worth the time it takes to make a phone call” and push for a higher rate, said Jeff Glenzer, vice president at the Association for Financial Professionals, an industry group for corporate treasurers. “The higher the rate becomes, the more attractive it is to worry about where the money sits.”

 

Most banks are already awash in more deposits than they need, causing some analysts to predict they’ll be stingy on corporate deposit rates, especially with loan growth softening in recent months.

 

“We’ll use pricing to start relationships,” said Darren King, CFO of M&T Bank Corp. , based in Buffalo, N.Y. “But over time, relationships need to work for both us and the customer.”

And, then again, maybe Yellen will completely cave on rate hikes if equity markets ever decide to decline for more than 30 minutes at a time and this whole discussion will be moot.

via http://ift.tt/2tIpBVP Tyler Durden

“Psycho”

Gold remains inside its 5 year wedge with no clear trend yet revealed.

But there are a number of near-term potential catalysts such as the German Elections, Debt Ceiling Debate & Commitment of Traders positioning  which may help give some clarity.

In the meantime, "People are literally losing their minds.”

So says Santiago Capital's Brent Johnson in this clip regarding gold, global markets and cognitive dissonance.

 Whether it's those on the Left that cannot handle Trump in the White House, or those on the Right who can’t understand how CNN is still in business.  Whether it's the gold bugs who can’t understand why gold is not over $10k/ounce, or the equity bears who think equities are overvalued by at least 50%.   They cannot reconcile the fact that their minds are saying one thing while simultaneously trying to comprehend the information being broadcast on their T.V.s and computer monitors.

Tracing the source of this cognitive dissonance back to the real “Seven Psychopaths” (voting members of the FOMC), Johnson asks you to just listen (and keep an open mind) to see whether you are guilty of psychotic thinking as well.

While referencing characters from real life and the movies,  Johnson wonders whether the bears are overly focused on the equity market (symptom) rather than where the real psychos are focused, which is the bond market (problem). 

And also wonders, based on studies showing that “The feeling of knowing” is based on an involuntary brain mechanism much like lover or anger, is it reason or biology that is determining our opinions on the markets?

Johnson believes the danger that most people don’t see is in interest rates.  And whether due to a currency crisis, sovereign debt crisis, or the simple forgiveness of G20 sovereign debt,  rates may very well rise further and faster than most currently see possible. 

In the end, fundamentals always win.  But in the short term, markets are Psycho.

 

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