iftttwall

WTI crude remains stuck ominously below $46 despite a full court press jawboning, headline-pumping effort this morning. As oil leaders meet in St.Petersburg, Saudis promised to cut exports further, Nigeria suggested it would limit output (at dramatically higher-than-current production), Russia offered hope that Q3 had “big potential”, and OPEC suiggested tighter compliance monitoring (as cheating has picked up in recent months).. but oil just won’t budge.

As Bloomberg reports, OPEC and partners meet in St. Petersburg where the Saudi energy minister says he expects deep cut in nation’s August exports.

OPEC/non-OPEC meeting:

• Saudi Arabia’s Al-Falih says inventory draw-down to accelerate, demand picking up; Saudis to cap exports at 6.6m b/d in August, y/y decline of 1m b/d
• Joint ministerial committee said to discuss monitoring oil exports along with production figures; Al-Falih says exports have become key metric for financial markets
• OPEC may need to discuss in November extending cuts: U.A.E.
• Nigeria to limit output to 1.8m b/d if it can reach that level: Oman
• Russia’s Novak sees ‘‘big potential’’ for oil markets in 3Q; not opposedto monitoring exports

And this is the result… a quick spike above $46… then fall back.

It is clear that OPEC/NOPEC has lost the market’s self-referential confirmation circle (‘we buy when you speak’). Simply put, US shale’s short-term response cycle to any increase in oil prices means any actions taken by the Saudis to juice the energy market are quickly stifled by resurgent US production.

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“Apprehension” – that’s how Citi describes trader sentiment as a new week begins, in which the bank points to various event risks over the coming five days. The one markets are focusing on over say, the FOMC on Wednesday, is the political noise coming from Washington. The investigation into Russia’s alleged meddling in the 2016 election is back in focus as President Trumps’ son-in-law testifies, along with Trump Jr and Paul Manafort later in the week. As such, risk sentiment seems apprehensive ahead of the inevitable headlines

Indeed, near term White House risk is substantial and is as follows: Jared Kushner appearing before Senate intelligence committee on Monday; the Senate healthcare vote is expected Tuesday; Donald Trump Jr. and former Trump campaign Chairman Paul Manafort are expected to appear on Wednesday before Senate committees investigating Russian meddling.

On the economic front, next week attention will be on the US FOMC rate decision, Q2 GDP data, consumer confidence, housing and durable goods orders. We also get GDP, composite PMI and CPI inflation releases across the Euro Area. GDP data in the UK. In Emerging Markets, there are monetary policy meetings in Colombia, Brazil, Turkey and Russia.

It is also the busiest week for Q2 earnings with dozens of marquee names reporting.

As Jim Reid summarizes, the highlight this week are today’s flash PMI numbers and the FOMC meeting this Wednesday, although the latter will likely be a relatively mundane affair with the action perhaps being saved for a September balance sheet announcement. One also has to keep an eye on all things Washington related following Friday’s announcement of Press Secretary Sean Spicer’s resignation. Mr Trump now has new people at the helm of both his legal and communications teams after resignations towards the end of last week. Late on Friday Congressional negotiators agreed to advance a bill punishing Russia for its involvement in the 2016 election and also restricting Presidential powers to remove sanctions on Russia. It will now go to a vote and if it passes Trump could be in a difficult situation as he has publicly stated he wants improved relations with Russia but clearly if Congress has voted for the bill he’d be seen as siding with Putin if he didn’t respond positively when it reached his desk. These matters are obviously important for many reasons not least as Trump does need Congress on his side if he has hopes of rescuing his legislative agenda. Elsewhere, today sees senior White House advisor Jared Kushner interviewed by the Senate Intelligence committee, with Donald Trump Jnr. and ex-Trump campaign Chairman Paul Manafort before Senate committees on Wednesday

US takes center-stage with GDP and Fed FOMC

Economists expect the BEA’s annual revision of national accounts, including GDP, to be a non-event, leaving focus on the advance 2Q GDP estimate and the Fed. BofA expected 2Q GDP growth to accelerate to 2.1% q/q saar on the back of a rebound in consumption. Looking ahead to 2H, the bank anticipates further modest acceleration to 2.3% as residential investment and inventory build recover.

The FOMC is unlikely to significantly change their message at the upcoming meeting. With no Summary of Economic Projections or Press Conference, focus will be on the statement, where we expect the FOMC to tweak the language to emphasize the recent inflation weakness and to double down on balance sheet normalization.

Also watch for Eurozone inflation releases

On Friday, Spain, France and Germany release their preliminary estimates for July inflation: we are expecting prints of -0.4%, -1.5% and 0.1% m/m respectively. After June’s upside surprise, our forecast for EZ inflation remains unchanged at 1.5% in 2017 and 1.0% in 2018, with a slow grinding uptrend for core. In our view, most of the surprise on headline and core inflation was driven by temporary one-offs that should go away as soon as in July, potentially complicating the ECB’s task ahead. We retain our call for a very slow pace of tapering from January 2018 onward.

Here is DB’s breakdown of the week’s main highlights:

• Monday starts with the July manufacturing, services and composite flash PMIs for Germany, Eurozone and the US. Existing home sales data in the US will also be released.
• Tuesday, Germany will have the IFO July index for business climate and expectations, while France will report confidence indicators for July. In the US on Tuesday data includes consumer confidence, FHFA house price index, S&P/Case-Shiller house price index and Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
• Turning to Wednesday, in the UK Q2 GDP is due, while the focus in the US will be the July FOMC rate decision. New home sales data will also be due.
• For Thursday, the morning session looks quiet with only Euro area M3 money supply data due. Across the pond the US will update its durable and capital goods orders for June as well as the initial jobless claims, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index.
• Finally, on Friday, the early data is out of Japan where June CPI data is due, while in Europe we have Germany and France providing an update on CPI. Euro area confidence indicators are also due. It’s a bumper end to the week in the US with the advance Q2 GDP report, core PCE and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

Onto other events. On Monday, the UK begins preliminary post-Brexit trade talks with the US, ECB’s Frank Smet’s will speak at Munich and OPEC and non-OPEC meet in Russia to discuss progress with production cuts. On Tuesday, the US secretary of Commerce will address the economic club of Washington. Onto Wednesday the Fed of Minneapolis President will be the first speaker post the FOMC decision. Finally, notable US companies due to report include: Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, AT&T, Twitter, Facebook, McDonalds, GM, Caterpillar, Ford, Boeing, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Exxon, Merck and AbbVie.

Finally, here is Goldman’s preview of the week’s key events alongside consnesus estimates and commentary

The key economic releases this week are the Q2 GDP advance estimate and the Q2 employment cost index on Friday. The statement following the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, July 24

• 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, July preliminary (consensus 52.2, last 52.0)
• 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, July preliminary (consensus 54.0, last 54.2)
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, June (GS -1.5%, consensus -0.9%, last +1.1%): We look for a 1.5% decline in June existing home sales, following a 1.1% increase in the prior month. Regional housing data released so far suggest a modest slowdown in closed homes sales. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.

• Tuesday, July 25
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, May (consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.5% (mom sa) in May on top of a 0.7% gain in April. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose 6.8% in April.
• 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to increase 0.2% in May, following a 0.3% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which rose 5.7% in April.
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, July (GS 115.0, consensus 116.0, last 118.9): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index declined 3.9pt to 115.0 in July following a moderate increase in the month prior. The index remains close to post-crisis highs. Our forecast mostly reflects softer consumer surveys this month.
• 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, July (consensus +7, last +7)

Wednesday, July 26

• 10:00 AM New home sales, June (GS +1.5%, consensus +0.8%, last +2.9%): We estimate new home sales rose 1.5% in June, following a 2.9% increase in the prior month. Single-family building permits rebounded in June, and May new home sales looked abnormally low in the Midwest region, where we anticipate sequential improvement in Wednesday’s report.
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, July 25-26 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we do not expect any policy changes next week and expect only limited changes to the post-meeting statement. The statement is likely to upgrade the description of job growth, but might also recognize that inflation has declined further. We also think it is more likely than not that the FOMC will include a nod toward an announcement of balance sheet normalization plans in September.

Thursday, July 27

• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, June preliminary (GS +5.3%, consensus +3.5%, last -0.8%):  Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%);Core capital goods orders, June preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods shipments, June preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%): We expect durable goods orders rebounded 5.3% in the June report, driven by a sharp increase in commercial aircraft orders. Orders commentary from industrial companies remains encouraging, and we estimate durable goods orders ex-transportation rose by a solid 0.5%. We also estimate firmer core capital goods orders (+0.5%). However, manufacturing production growth was relatively modest in June, with a 0.1% gain in ex-auto manufacturing and a 0.2% increase in the capex-sensitive business equipment category. Accordingly, we look of a somewhat softer increase in core capital goods shipments (+0.3%).
• 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report; Advance goods trade balance, June preliminary (GS -$65.5bn, consensus -$65.0bn, last -$66.3bn): We estimate the goods trade deficit narrowed $0.8bn to $65.5bn in June. Regional port statistics suggest that inbound container volumes pulled back in the month, suggestive of an improvement in the trade deficit.
• 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, June preliminary (consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 22 (GS 250k, consensus 240k, last 233k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 15 (consensus 1,959k, last 1,977k): We estimate initial jobless claims rebounded 17k to 250k in the week ended July 15 following a sharp decline in the prior week. Initial claims can be particularly volatile around this time of year due to summer auto plant shutdowns, and we note the possibility that some of these factory closures shifted one week later (relative to previous years). Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend higher recently following a sharp decline in the first four months of the year.
• 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, July (consensus +12, last +11).

Friday, July 28

• 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 advance (GS +1.9%, consensus +2.5%, last +1.4%); Personal consumption, Q2 (GS +3.0%, consensus +2.8%, last +1.1%): We estimate a +1.9% increase in the first vintage of Q2 GDP (qoq saar), reflecting solid growth in personal consumption (+3.0%) and business fixed investment (+3.3%), but a drag from inventories (-0.4pp). Accordingly, our growth estimate for the domestic final sales component is firmer at +2.3%. We also expect a 4.0% decline in residential investment following a double-digit increase in Q1.
• 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q2 (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.8%): Following a cycle-high increase in Q1 (+0.8%, qoq sa), we estimate that growth in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) decelerated to 0.6% in Q2, with the year-over-year pace remaining stable at +2.4%. While we continue to expect firming wage growth in an economy at full employment, we expect mean-reversion to weigh on the pace of growth in incentive-paid industries this quarter, particularly sales and related occupations. Minimum wage increases also likely boosted ECI wage growth in the first quarter, most notably in the leisure and hospitality industry. Finally, wage growth data has been somewhat disappointing in the second quarter, and our wage tracker—which distills signals from several wage measures—fell to 2.3% year-on-year in Q2 from 2.6% in Q1 and a recent peak of 2.8% in mid-2016.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, July final (GS 93.2, consensus 93.1, last 93.1): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up 0.1pt to 93.2 in the July final estimate. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations rose one-tenth to 2.6% in the preliminary reading – the top of its 12-month range – despite recent declines in gasoline prices that often appear to weigh on survey responses in this component.
• 01:20 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated Q&A at an event hosted by the St. Paul Chamber of Commerce in Oakdale, Minnesota. Audience Q&A is expected.

Source: BofA, DB, Goldman

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Commercial Property Market Is Inflated and May Burst Again

by David McWilliams

Dublin property investors had better hope that Brexit happens soon.

They should also hope that it’s not just a ‘hard’ Brexit, but a granite Brexit — a Brexit that’s as hard as possible. They should be betting on the buffoonery of Boris Johnson, down on both knees praying for a massive barney between Davis and Barnier.

A granite Brexit might prompt the migration of hundreds of corporate refugees from isolated London to the freewheeling safe haven of Dublin. If Brexit doesn’t drive a massive uptake in demand for prime property, we are in for a massive wobble in our inflated commercial property market.

Before we remind ourselves how this property story goes, let’s have a look at the facts: the glossy brochures are back, stockbrokers are packaging all sorts of property-related products to “investors”, the price of ad space in the property porn sections of the press is surging and of course the skyline is full of cranes and Armagh flags.

CBRE – a property-flogging outfit – tells us there are currently 31 office schemes under construction in Dublin, which is more than 380,000sqm in the pipeline. They tell us that more than 30% of this stock is already let. It also gushes that 44% of the office stock due for completion before the end of this year has already been pre-let. Meanwhile, agents tell us that prime office rents in the Dublin market stand at approximately €673 sqm.

It looks like things couldn’t be healthier.

Office take-up in Dublin surged 101,000sqm in the past three months, bringing total take-up in the first half of this year to more than 150,000 sqm. That’s a lot of space. 81 individual large office lettings were signed in Dublin since March (45 to Irish companies; 18 to US firms and 11 to the Brits). This is more than double the figure for the period from January to March.

The market is tight, hence all the building. The vacancy rate in the city centre is only 4.5% and yields for investors are stable at 4.6%. This is only because rents have been surging to keep up with the soaring prices.

Before we get carried away, remember rents are a cost and Ireland is competing with other European countries, so let’s compare our prices, not with some of Europe’s poorest countries, but why not with its richest, Germany? This will give a bit of perspective.

Comparing our prices with similar rents in Germany, we see that Dublin is already massively more expensive. Prime rents in Frankfurt are €474 sqm per annum. Remember Dublin is charging €673 sqm. The difference — €199 per annum — means that Dublin is 42% more expensive than Germany’s most expensive city. Once you start comparing other German cities, the extent of Ireland’s commercial property rip-off becomes more evident. Take Munich, capital city of Germany’s richest province Bavaria. Prime rents in Munich are €420 sqm per annum. In Hamburg, Germany’s sophisticated northern powerhouse, prime rents are €312 sqm per annum, while in Dusseldorf, the cross-road of Europe, prime real estate will set you back €318 sqm per annum – less than half of what it costs you in Dublin.

In all German markets, vacancy rates are higher so that means there’s much more choice.

When the price of something as basic as office space is profoundly more expensive in a country that has a much lower economic footprint, much smaller population and less rich capital base, you should worry.

The rebound in the Dublin commercial property market has been significant… (see chart above)

…

Meanwhile the foreign investors have got out with their profit and the Irish are left thinking they can get rich by selling Ireland to each other.

Wait, haven’t we seen this before? Maybe Brexit will ensure a happy ending this time?

Dublin’s Commercial Market Praying for a Granite-Brexit – Read in full here

 

News and Commentary

Gold hits 4-week high on weaker equities, U.S. dollar (Reuters.com)

IMF cuts U.S. growth forecast for 2017, 2018 (MarketWatch.com)

Stocks to Edge Lower Before Earnings Flurry, Fed (Bloomberg.com)

Stocks brace for volatility in earnings deluge; Fed meeting looms (MarketWtch.com)

Charges dropped after ‘London Whale’ accused Jamie Dimon of making him a fall guy (MarketWatch.com)

“Mother of All Bubbles” Keeps Gold in Focus (AdvisorPerspectives.com)

Can You Guess the World’s Largest Gold Jewelry Market? (Fool.com)

The Student Loan Bubble and Economic Collapse (AntoniusAquinas.com)

Former ‘Plunge Protection Team’ Member Warns “Blockchain Is Freaking Governments Out” (ZeroHedge.com)

Deeply flawed Western economic models undermining worst global recovery in history (CNBC.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

24 Jul: USD 1,255.85, GBP 962.99 & EUR 1,077.64 per ounce
21 Jul: USD 1,247.25, GBP 958.89 & EUR 1,071.39 per ounce
20 Jul: USD 1,236.55, GBP 953.63 & EUR 1,075.06 per ounce
19 Jul: USD 1,239.85, GBP 950.84 & EUR 1,074.83 per ounce
18 Jul: USD 1,237.10, GBP 949.47 & EUR 1,071.82 per ounce
17 Jul: USD 1,229.85, GBP 940.71 & EUR 1,074.03 per ounce
14 Jul: USD 1,218.95, GBP 940.54 & EUR 1,067.92 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

24 Jul: USD 16.50, GBP 12.66 & EUR 14.17 per ounce
21 Jul: USD 16.43, GBP 12.63 & EUR 14.11 per ounce
20 Jul: USD 16.18, GBP 12.50 & EUR 14.07 per ounce
19 Jul: USD 16.23, GBP 12.44 & EUR 14.08 per ounce
18 Jul: USD 16.17, GBP 12.41 & EUR 13.99 per ounce
17 Jul: USD 16.07, GBP 12.30 & EUR 14.02 per ounce
14 Jul: USD 15.71, GBP 12.11 & EUR 13.76 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing
– Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Gold and Silver For Long Term
– “Time To Position In Gold Is Right Now” says Jim Rickards
– Bloomberg Silver Price Survey – Median 12 Month Forecast Of $20
– “Bigger Systemic Risk” Now Than 2008 – Bank of England
– “Financial Crisis” Coming By End Of 2018 – Prepare Urgently
– Video – “Gold Should Probably Be $5000” – CME Chairman
– India Gold Imports Surge To 5 Year High – 220 Tons In May Alone
– “Silver’s Plunge Is Nearing Completion”
– China, Russia Alliance Deepens Against American Overstretch
– Silver Prices Bounce Higher After Futures Manipulated 7% Lower In Minute
– Precious Metals Are “Best Defence” Against Bail-ins In Economic Crisis
– Buy Gold Near $1,200 “As Insurance” – UBS Wealth

via http://ift.tt/2uPsqUN GoldCore

• Kushner, Russian Ambassador Had Undisclosed Contact (WSJ)
• Democrats take aim at big companies in economic blueprint (Reuters)
• Trump open to signing Russia sanctions legislation (Reuters)
• Schumer Predicts Trump Firing Mueller Would Be GOP Tipping Point (BBG)
• Senate GOP Unsure of What Health-Care Measure They Will Vote On (WSJ)
• Japan PM Abe denies favors for friend amid falling support (Reuters)
• Britain’s Economy Is Almost Flatlining (BBG)
• Wall Street Outlasts Congress on Banker Pay, But Still Loses (WSJ)
• An Obscure Nafta Chapter Could Be Canada’s Deal-Breaker Again (BBG)
• Investors Lose $22 Billion as Sweden’s Benchmark Stocks Founder (BBG)
• German private sector growth slows more than expected in July-PMI (Reuters)
• Oil rises after Saudi vows to cap crude exports next month (Reuters)
• Saudi calls OPEC members to stick to limits, sees oil demand up (Reuters)
• Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Exports (WSJ)
• IMF Sees U.S. Fading as Global Growth Engine (BBG)
• Singapore Startup Takes Bitcoin Into Real World With Visa (BBG)
• ‘They All Deserve to Die’: Caracas Militants Vow to Take Up Arms (BBG)
• South China Sea: Vietnam halts drilling after ‘China threats’ (BBC)
• Traders Fear Hard Landing in Emerging Markets (BBG)
• This Hedge Fund Is Betting $280 Million on a 34-Year-Old Guy (BBG)
• UK government to discuss Brexit implementation period later this year (Reuters)
• Welcome to Xi’s Net: Where Politics, Porn and Pooh Are Forbidden (BBG)
• WebMD Agrees to Be Bought by Buyout Firm KKR for $2.8 Billion (BBG)
• EPA chief spent almost half of spring in home state of Oklahoma (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– U.S. Senate Republicans are expected to vote as early as Tuesday to begin debate on their sweeping health-care legislation—but they don’t know yet what measure they will be voting on. on.wsj.com/2uO1tku

– Private equity firm KKR & Co is nearing a deal to buy WebMD Health Corp, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2gVzY2G

– Singapore-based ride-hailing firm GrabTaxi Holdings Pte expects to raise $2.5 billion a round of startup fundraising as it seeks to battle Uber Technologies Inc across the populous region, the company said. Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp and Chinese ride-hailing company Didi Chuxing Technology Co will lead the current round of investment, pouring up to $2 billion into Grab. on.wsj.com/2gVTiwT

– The White House indicated U.S. President Donald Trump was likely to support legislation that would punish Russia for interfering in the 2016 election, after months of questioning assertions about Moscow’s involvement. on.wsj.com/2gVSgRr

– German luxury car maker BMW AG denied it had cooperated with rivals to manipulate diesel engines for reducing nitrogen-oxide emissions, after the European Commission confirmed that Volkswagen AG asked the region’s antitrust watchdogs to scrutinize decades of possible coordination efforts by the country’s main auto manufacturers. on.wsj.com/2gVoTyK

– Private attorney Mike Moore is encouraging U.S. states to sue pharmaceutical companies, alleging they helped spark an addiction crisis by misrepresenting the benefits and addiction risks of opioid painkillers. Moore pressed Mississippi and Ohio to sue drugmakers and is helping them with the suits they have since filed. on.wsj.com/2gVDiLm

 

FT

Flavio Cattaneo, chief executive of Telecom Italia SpA , is thought to be seeking an exit payout of about 30 million euros amid reports of a clash with majority shareholder Vivendi SA, as he becomes the second head to leave the company in less than two years.

British advisory boutique DuCanon has arranged its first deal by helping to seal the 600 million pound buyout of an exhibitions organiser Clarion Events by Blackstone Group Lp .

Acacia Mining Plc, which is in the midst of a multibillion-dollar dispute with the Tanzanian government over tax and royalties, is facing renewed pressure to address long-running alleged human rights violations at one of its mines in the east African country.

A new EU competition investigation into Germany’s top carmakers threatens the credibility of the entire industry, a German minister has warned, after Brussels confirmed it was probing suspected collusion on technology.

 

NYT

– Chinese regulators have become increasingly concerned that some of the biggest Chinese conglomerates have borrowed so much that they could pose risks to the financial system. Banking officials are ramping up scrutiny of companies’ balance sheets. nyti.ms/2tSzoDX

– BMW AG, responding to claims that it formed a cartel with Daimler AG and Volkswagen AG to hold down the prices of crucial technology, denied that the German carmakers had agreed among themselves to install emissions equipment that was inadequate to do the job. nyti.ms/2vPFvue

– Time Warner Inc CEO Jeffrey Bewkes is expected to resign if regulators approve AT&T Inc’s $85.4 billion bid and the Time Warner name is likely to be eliminated, as AT&T subsume the company’s assets, including HBO, Turner cable network brands and Warner Bros film and television studios. nyti.ms/2tsVQUN

– The White House indicated that President Donald Trump would accept new legislation curtailing his authority to lift sanctions on Russia on his own, after a broad revolt by lawmakers of both parties about his approach to Moscow. nyti.ms/2gVSxUg

 

Canada

The Globe and Mail

** Ontario will dispatch up to 20 additional mental-health workers to a remote First Nations community where at least four youths took their own lives this month as government and Indigenous leaders meet Monday to discuss a health-care overhaul on Northern Ontario reserves. tgam.ca/2usbTng

** New privacy regulations such as General Data Protection Regulation coming into force in Europe next year are calling into question whether Canada’s approach to privacy is keeping up with its global peers. Chantal Bernier, former interim privacy commissioner of Canada said, “we cannot take for granted that Canada would be recognized as adequate under the GDPR, because it is very different from our current legislation, and very different from the previous European legislation under which we were deemed adequate.” tgam.ca/2urAzfF

** Ontario is preparing to hand over control of its gambling operations in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to a private operator as the government seeks to drive a gambling boom in the province. Within a few weeks, the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp will select a business to run its casino and thousands of slot machines in the GTA for the next two decades. tgam.ca/2urDfKc

National Post

** Visitors to Canada are still getting scammed by fake websites as they apply for mandatory electronic travel authorization, with officials receiving hundreds of complaints in the past year. The number is now up to almost 950, and immigration officials tell this week there has been “no change” in the status of the problem. bit.ly/2urQOJJ

 

Britain

The Times

Bakkavor, one of the biggest suppliers of ready meals to Marks & Spencer and Waitrose, is exploring plans for a stock market float that could value it at up to 1.5 billion pounds. bit.ly/2gVBiTo

The top management at Paysafe Group Plc are in line for a 70 million pound shares-based windfall if the payment processor becomes the latest technology company to be sold to foreign bidders. bit.ly/2gUFpyX

The Guardian

Asda, the British supermarket arm of Wal-Mart Stores Inc , is considering a move for the discount chain B&M European Value Retail SA, in what would be the latest attempt by a major supermarket to diversify in the face of growing competition from cheaper rivals. bit.ly/2gVzpFZ

Liam Fox has conceded Britain is likely to seek a transitional deal until 2022 after leaving the European Union, but said the arrangements should not “drag on” until after the next general election. bit.ly/2gVpRLm

The Telegraph

Under-pressure mining group Acacia Mining Plc is facing a lawsuit in the UK from relatives of people who died at one of its mine sites. bit.ly/2gUFTFh

The BBC is planning to take men off radio and television programmes and replace them with women in an attempt to close the gender pay gap. bit.ly/2gVvwAQ

Sky News

The boss of the UK pensions lifeboat, Alan Rubenstein, is to step down early next year after a near-nine-year tenure. bit.ly/2gVa7rG

Blackstone Group LP has acquired Clarion Events from rival Providence Equity Partners for a deal valued at just under 600 million pounds. bit.ly/2gVpxMw

The Independent

At least 15 Conservative MPs have reportedly agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Theresa May. ind.pn/2gV31mW

 

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The knives are out early this morning among the brokers, where UBS – hardly the embodiment of ibanking and sales and trading health these days – just downgraded Goldman Sachs to Neutral, cutting its price target from $250 to $235, on the recent disappointing results from the company’s FICC group. UBS said it believes the market is pricing in an “inflection” in Goldman’s trading revenue despite the recent weakness suggesting a recovery is needed to justify 2018 consensus estimates. The bank concedes that “recent weak results could rebound but believe a recovery in trading revenues would need to be substantial as we estimate a roughly 25% rebound in FICC revenues is implied in 2018 consensus estimates.”

It adds that “while trading could rebound, that has not happened over the past year for GS absent a surprise event such as Brexit or the Trump election and we have difficulty relying on such an event in order to justify a bullish thesis.”

As a result, UBS has “limited confidence” in a FICC rebound at Goldman and sees better opportunities for investors elsewhere, such as Morgan Stanley (and why note even UBS shares).

From UBS:

Shares seem to reflect a rebound in revs but we have limited confidence in that

 

We are downgrading GS shares to neutral as the market seems to be pricing an inflection in their FICC revenues despite the recent weakness, suggesting a recovery is needed to justify 2018 consensus. We believe there are better opportunities for investors (such as buy-rated MS). Importantly, adjusting for unusual items (ie low taxes, excess I&L, etc) 1H17 earnings missed consensus forecasts as of mid-Feb 2017 (before revisions began) by 19.2%, yet the stock is down by 12.1% and consensus 2018 estimates are only down 7.2%, suggesting to us that the street is largely willing to embed a recovery in GS, trading results.

 

We recognize recent weak results could rebound but believe a recovery in trading revenues would need to be substantial as we estimate a roughly 25% rebound in FICC revenues is implied in 2018 consensus estimates. While trading could rebound, that has not happened over the past year for GS absent a surprise event such as Brexit or the Trump election and we have difficulty relying on such an event in order to justify a bullish thesis.

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Submitted by Rajan Dhall from fxdaily.co.uk

FX Week Ahead – The greenback crashes again! Could Fed chair revive the USD at Wednesday’s FOMC.

Last week I asked whether it was ‘end of days’ for the USD, based largely on the fading set of US economic data, which in fairness, happens in times of a ‘gradual’ recovery, going through the familiar series of peaks and troughs.  Some may have an issue with the term ‘recovery’ in the face of unprecedented cheap money which central banks are only now are planning to rein in, but we can apply to this to a number of major economies, so for the purposes of determining exchange rate (fair value) levels, we will even out the playing field a little.

Looking at some of the price action, we have broken out of some key levels and areas, so in this respect, ‘end of days’ means an end to the uptrend which has seen the EUR rate pushing back through 1.1500, while the commodity currencies also look to have set a longer term low in place. What is doesn’t mean – necessarily – is that the USD is going to implode, though the past week has seemed that way!  Matters relating to a certain president D Trump have clearly accentuated the weakness – and we won’t go into this – much said already – and this looks to have been the dominant factor.  Next week however, this may, or may not be highlighted by how the market takes to the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, which will see Fed Funds unchanged, but keen focus on the statement (only, no press conference) which accompanies this.  Indeed, some are ruling out another rate move from the Fed this year, but there are plenty of twists and turns ahead, as well as a ‘normalisation process’ which has been ‘designed’ to curb market excesses of the past, though has had minimal impact on the equity market.  The Fed chair has consistently highlighted valuation levels in stocks, so only a major drop off in the data, is expected to dissuade the Fed from their gradual rate path adjustments, though the familiar dissenters have been unnerved by some of the readings, not least of all inflation and sluggish wage pick up. 

No major data releases until Friday however, when when get the preliminary GDP stats for Q2.  Growth rate expectations have been fluctuating in the mid 2.0%’s where consensus is still for a 2.4% print.  Manufacturing and services PMIs are out on Monday as well as existing homes sales, while durable goods orders fall due on Thursday. 

Back to currencies, and against the tide of USD sales, USD/JPY losses have been relatively tame.   Wall Street has been making fresh record highs, so hampering JPY upside here is the ongoing divestment out of Japan despite the green shoots of recovery in the domestic economy.  This prompts many to look for higher levels in the cross JPY rates, and we will not preclude the spot rate yet, with yield differentials where they are and unlikely to tighten up as the BoJ maintain yield control measures.  Inflation targets are still a way off and the central bank has extended the period in which they expect them to be acheived. 

Given the turmoil at the White House alone, days of old would have seen USD/JPY crushed, so we have to acknowledge the resilience we are seeing at moment.  That said, it can only be tested so far.  A move through 111.00 is little to get excited about, but sub 110.00 could see some of the heavy JPY shorts – CFTC reporting another increase last week – turn tail.

Out of Japan next week, the inflation data on Friday wil again confirm the mountain to climb before we reach 2.0%, but the impressive unemployment rate of 3.1% expected to remain pretty much unchanged (worth a mention!). 

USDJPY Daily

As mentioned above, EUR/USD has powered higher in the midst of USD weakness, with the market carried away by the prospects of APP tapering this year.  President Draghi and most of the ECB (at the meeting last week), have done their utmost to rein in this latest round of exuberant positioning, which has pushed EUR/USD through 1.1600 and close to 1.1700 as of late trade Friday.  Too far, too fast?  Well naturally the ECB think so, but given some of the upside projections for 1.2000 by end the year – even 1.2500! – the rate of gains (vs time) look unsustainable at the very least.  Yields have fared more favourably however, with core EU rates pulling back (German 10yr back to 50bps vs near 65bps in the previous week), but this is largely a function of the broader bid in global fixed income.

EUR strength will at some point impact on exports, whilst also dampening inflation to a modest degree, but until the data really starts to reflect this, any pullbacks in the EUR will be corrective, so on the downside, the low 1.1500’s will likely prove the first point of support based on the congestion seen here on the way up.  EUR/CHF has also pushed into the mid 1.1000’s to eye a move on 1.1100, but we are struggling here a little.  Above the figure lie the highs seen in early summer last year, but gains have been tempered by the USD aspect which has seen the CHF spot rate dip under 0.9500. 

Amid the mix of PMI data over the week, we have some harmonised inflation numbers of note, while in Germany, the IFO survey on Tuesday is standout release. 

EURUSD Daily

The data highlight of the week in the UK is the Q2 GDP number on Wednesday, but despite retail sales holding up (according to last Thursday’s data), growth figures are expected to ease off from 2.0% in Q1 to 1.7% on a yearly basis. Rate hike expectations have eased off a little in the wake of the softer inflation read last week, but with less slack in wage growth than expected, steady growth could maintain the balance of MPC hawks sticking to their calls for a 25bp hike. 

This has given Cable the support to maintain the upside pressure on 1.3000.  Above here, the move through 1.3100 has been short lived on each occasion with key levels at 1.3145 and 1.3185-90 intact.  The strong bid in EUR/GBP has also played its part, but 0.9000 is a strong level, which if breached won’t necessarily lead to any runaway moves to the upside.  The perception of a soft Brexit may be misplaced at the present time, especially with last week’s talks highlighting the discord on EU citizens in the UK and the exit bill, but Theresa May’s weakened hand (whether you believe this or not) has worked in favour of the Pound, so the market is looking at ‘fair value’ again. 

GBPUSD Daily

The CAD has also ‘finally’ realised ‘fairer’ value levels, and as I stated last week, the recognition (and by this I meant the BoC response and rate hike – apologies for not being more explicit) of the improving growth and labour stats has sent the spot rate down to a little shy of 1.2500.  It is hard to see us avoiding a push below here next week, but in the short space of time, we have come a very long way and a correction here is long overdue.  On Friday we saw the market reacting to the stronger retail sales figures for May, but given the BoC’s assertions that the policy change was effected based on the data from May, this is priced in. There was scant regard for inflation slipping to 1.0%, but we expect this will impact at some stage.  House prices have also come off significantly in the last few months, and this will also test gov Poloz’s view that the economy can handle the latest tightening.  How far we correct depends on the USD again, but a pronounced move will come up against the strongest resistance in the 1.2950-1.3000 area. 

On the downside, 1.2000-1.2200 is a key target zone, 1.1800 or so beyond that, and these are not outside the realms of reality into the latter part of the year if economic expansion continues and Oil prices can stabilise (a big if).  The economy has adjusted to the lower price environment, but we expect a WTI move back towards $40.0 will prove unsettling again (to put it mildly).  GDP numbers for May are due at the end of the week, and are expected to show a modest 0.2% rise on the month.

USDCAD Weekly

It has been a good week for the AUD, where a key breakout vs the USD through 0.7835-50 is one such level which may have highlighted a major top in the greenback – pre 0.6800 in early 2016.  For all the worries over commodity prices as well as housing concerns back home, AUD has pushed higher against a number of its counterparts, but the spot rate clearly hit a wall ahead of 0.8000, so some form of pullback here may see the above (breakout) level tested the other way.  With inflation the bane of all major economies, the Q2 reading on Tuesday could see one or other of these limits tested, but we have already seen its limits reached against its NZD counterpart, which has retraced sharply after testing up to 1.0850.  Back in the mid 1.0600’s, 1.0500 is the first support point from here, and we are still undecided as to whether the key 1.0370-50 base tested a few weeks back is a major platform.

AUDUSD Daily

via http://ift.tt/2tTbjNj Tyler Durden

Ahead of his closed-door meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee at 10am, Jared Kushner released an 11-page statement which confirmed four contacts with Russians during his father-in-law’s presidential campaign or after the election, but described the encounters as unmemorable and denied colluding with the Russian government to help Donald Trump win the election.

The Senate Intelligence Committee is investigating Russian meddling in the 2016 campaign, including whether Trump’s campaign colluded with a Russian government effort to tip the election toward Trump.

The key statement: "I did not collude, nor know of anyone else in the campaign who colluded, with any foreign government. I had no improper contacts. I have not relied on Russian funds to finance my business activities in the private sector. I have tried to be fully transparent with regard to the filing of my SF-86 [security clearance] form, above and beyond what is required."

In the most consequential meeting, Kushner said he agreed to meet with a Russian banker, Sergey Gorkov, on Dec. 13 at the request of the Russian ambassador to the U.S., Sergey Kislyak

Kushner’s interview with committee staff is voluntary, will take place out of the public eye and will not be under oath. It nevertheless may serve as a building block for the ongoing Russia investigations by Special Counsel Bob Mueller as well as House and Senate committees. The stakes for the congressional interviews are high for Kushner because Kushner is of acute interest to special counsel Bob Mueller, and prosecutors can be expected to pick apart today's statement.

Kushner amended his security clearance disclosures to account for previously unreported meetings with foreign contacts, and his brother-in-law, Donald Trump Jr., disclosed this month that in June 2016 Kushner sat in on a meeting with a Russian lawyer and a Russian lobbyist that Trump Jr. believed would deliver potentially damaging information about Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to Bloomberg.

Suspicions about Kushner’s contacts with Russians have been intensifying since late May, when the Washington Post first reported that Kushner was a “person of interest” in the multiple investigations into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to sway the election in its favor. Among other misdeeds, Kushner has been accused in the media of trying to set up a backchannel to Moscow during the campaign. However, he denies this allegation, saying that he merely asked Kislyak if lines of communication existed for Moscow's generals to brief former National Security Adviser Mike Flynn on events in Syria. He was told there were none.

“I did not suggest a ‘secret back channel’. I did not suggest an ongoing secret form of communication for then or for when the administration took office. I did not raise the possibility of using the embassy or any other Russian facility for any purpose other than this one possible conversation in the transition period,” he testified, according to the Financial Times.

Rebutting one of the more persistent allegations against him – namely that he left a handful of meetings with foreign officials off his security clearance application – Kushner said that, due to a clerical error, all of his meetings with foreign parties were ommitted, according to Reuters.

Kushner has said he didn’t read to the bottom of an email forwarded to him by his brother-in-law about the Russia meeting that described potentially receiving damaging information about Clinton. He has said he left the meeting after only a couple of minutes, even texting an assistant asking them to call him and give him an excuse to leave.

"[I]n looking for a polite way to leave and get back to my work," he says in the statement, "I actually emailed an assistant from the meeting after I had been there for ten or so minutes and wrote 'Can u pls call me on my cell? Need excuse to get out of meeting.' I had not met the attorney before the meeting nor spoken with her since. I thought nothing more of this short meeting until it came to my attention recently."

Another highlight: "With respect to my contacts with Russia or Russian representatives during the campaign, there were hardly any. … [T]he day after the election, I could not even remember the name of the Russian Ambassador. … I sent an email asking [Dmitri Simes of the Center for the National Interest, which hosted a Trump foreign policy speech], 'What is the name of the Russian ambassador?'"

Meanwhile, Kushner last week filed an amended financial disclosure that included 77 items worth at least $10 million that were described as “inadvertently omitted” from a March filing. The updated filing includes details about the Kushner family’s real estate holdings. The disclosure has been revised 39 times since its initial filing on March 9.

Other notable excerpts from today's statement, via Axios:

• "When it became apparent that my father-in-law was going to be the Republican nominee for President, as normally happens, a number of officials from foreign countries attempted to reach out to the campaign. My father-in-law asked me to be a point of contact with these foreign countries. … [O]ver the course of the campaign, I had incoming contacts with people from approximately 15 countries."
• "I called on a variety of people with deep experience, such as Dr. Henry Kissinger, for advice on policy for the candidate, which countries/representatives with which the campaign should engage, and what messaging would resonate."
• "The first [campaign contact] that I can recall was at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C. in April 2016. … [T]he host of the event, Dimitri Simes, … introduced me to several guests, among them four ambassadors, including Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. With all the ambassadors, including Mr. Kislyak, we shook hands, exchanged brief pleasantries."
• "Reuters news service has reported that I had two calls with Ambassador Kislyak at some time between April and November of 2016. While I participated in thousands of calls during this period, I do not recall any such calls with the Russian Ambassador. We have reviewed the phone records available to us and have not been able to identify any calls to any number we know to be associated with Ambassador Kislyak and I am highly skeptical these calls took place."
• "I had no ongoing relationship with the Ambassador before the election, and had limited knowledge about him."
• "The only other Russian contact during the campaign is one I did not recall at all until I was reviewing documents and emails in response to congressional requests for information."
• That was the Trump Tower meeting, and he said the invitation from Donald Trump Jr. "was on top of a long [email] back and forth that I did not read at the time. … Documents confirm my memory that this was calendared as 'Meeting: Don Jr.| Jared Kushner.' No one else was mentioned."
• "There was one more possible contact that I will note. On October 30, 2016, I received a random email from the screenname 'Guccifer400.' This email, which I interpreted as a hoax, was an extortion attempt and threatened to reveal candidate Trump's tax returns and demanded that we send him 52 bitcoins in exchange for not publishing that information. I brought the email to the attention of a U.S. Secret Service agent on the plane we were all travelling on and asked what he thought. He advised me to ignore it and not to reply — which is what I did. The sender never contacted me again."
• "On November 16, 2016, my assistant received a request for a meeting from the Russian Ambassador. … The [Dec. 1] meeting occurred in Trump Tower, where we had our transition office, and lasted twenty [to] thirty minutes. Lt. General Michael Flynn (Ret.), who became the President's National Security Advisor, also attended.
• "I believed developing a thoughtful approach on Syria was a very high priority given the ongoing humanitarian crisis, and I asked if they had an existing communications channel at his embassy we could use where they would be comfortable transmitting the information they wanted to relay to General Flynn. The Ambassador said that would not be possible and so we all agreed that we would receive this information after the Inauguration. Nothing else occurred. I did not suggest a 'secret back channel.'"
• "My assistant reported that the Ambassador had requested that I meet with a person named Sergey Gorkov who he said was a banker and someone with a direct line to the Russian President who could give insight into how Putin was viewing the new administration and best ways to work together. I agreed to meet Mr. Gorkov because the Ambassador has been so insistent, said he had a direct relationship with the President, and because Mr. Gorkov was only in New York for a couple days."
• "The [Dec. 13] meeting with Mr. Gorkov lasted twenty to twenty-five minutes. … At no time was there any discussion about my companies, business transactions, real estate projects, loans, banking arrangements or any private business of any kind."
• "There has been a good deal of misinformation reported about my SF-86 [security clearance] form. As my attorneys and I have previously explained, my SF-86 application was prematurely submitted due to a miscommunication and initially did not list any contacts (not just with Russians) with foreign government officials."
• "[P]eople at my New York office were helping me find the information, organize it, review it and put it into the electronic form. They sent an email to my assistant in Washington, communicating that the changes to one particular section were complete; my assistant interpreted that message as meaning that the entire form was completed.
• "At that point, the form was a rough draft and still had many omissions including not listing any foreign government contacts and even omitted the address of my father-in-law (which was obviously well known). Because of this miscommunication, my assistant submitted the draft on January 18, 2017."
• "The very next day, January 19, 2017, we submitted supplemental information to the transition, which confirmed receipt and said they would immediately transmit it to the FBI."

His full prepared testimony is below (link):

 

via http://ift.tt/2uoWu8F Tyler Durden

In a mixed session, which has seen Asian stocks ex-Japan broadly higher, the European Stoxx 600 index dropped as much as 0.6% after data Markit PMI data signalled euro-area economy grew in July at its slowest pace in six months while carmakers extended declines on continued concern about antitrust collusion in the industry.  Germany’s DAX Index was hardest-hit euro-area benchmark, down as much as 0.8%. Autos continued to be the worst-performing sector on the Stoxx Europe 600 after EU and German regulators said they are studying possible collusion among German automakers. Der Spiegel magazine reported on Friday that BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen may have cooperated for decades on technology. 

Concerns have risen that with the Euro trading near its strongest level in 2 years and appreciating 11% against the USD YTD, it may weigh on exporters’ earnings; 1.20 on the EURUSD is being seen a key barrier beyond which European earnings will suffer.  As a result, the euro headed for its first decline in three days as data showed the region’s economy cooling at the start of a week packed with earnings results and a Federal Reserve rate decision. Stocks were dragged down for a second day by carmakers amid a collusion probe.

The common currency halted the advance that saw it hit a two-year high after a composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell in July to a six-month low. Automakers extended a slump as European Union and German authorities said they are studying possible collusion among German producers. Crude fluctuated as an OPEC committee gathers to discuss the progress of supply cuts. Bonds were mixed.

Europe’s PMI was closely scrutinized after both German and Eurozone manufacturing missed expectations:

• Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index at 55.8 (56.3 in June), below the 56.2 expected and 6-month low.
• Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index at 55.4 (55.4 in June), below the 55.6 expected. Growth unchanged.
• Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 56.9 (58.7 in June). 6-month low.
• Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI(3) at 56.8 (57.4 in June). 3-month low.

Meanwhile, in a week heavy on political and monetary events, with several key Trump-related hearings later in the week, as well as the Fed’s July decision on deck, earnings from industry bellwethers from Amazon.com Inc. to GlaxoSmithKline Plc are set to provide the latest tests for a bull market that’s propelled the value of global equities to $78 trillion. According to Bloomberg, euro-area manufacturing figures indicate that gross domestic product is expanding at a 0.6 percent quarterly pace, compared with 0.7 percent in the second three months of the year, adding further doubts about the sustainability of the stock rally at a time when the strong euro is weighing on exporters.

In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged higher after rallying over the past two weeks to the highest level in more than 10 years. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.5 percent, after dropping as much as 1 percent earlier in the day. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.6 percent.  The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.4 percent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was 0.5 percent higher. India’s Sensex climbed 0.6 percent to a record. The Australian dollar rose 0.6 percent, trading above 79 U.S. cents ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe on Wednesday.

The Dollar slumped to a five-week low against the yen on concern a widening probe into possible ties between Russia and U.S. President Donald Trump’s election campaign may derail his growth agenda. Lower U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices spur leveraged selling in the greenback ahead of Jared Kushner’s closed-door meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee on Monday, according to an Asia-based foreign-exchange trader quoted by Bloomberg. As noted over the weekend, hedge funds and other large speculators were the most bearish on the dollar in more than four years as the Federal Reserve meets this week

As noted earlier, the Polish zloty jumped the most against the euro since May after Poland’s President Andrzey Duda said he’d veto part of an overhaul of the judiciary that’s brought tens of thousands of protesters into the streets across the eastern European nation

In rates, the German government bond yields edged lower after euro zone PMI data also came in below forecasts. The 10-year yield – the benchmark for euro zone borrowing costs – fell to 0.49 percent, down 0.4 basis points and its lowest in more than a week. Yields fell on Friday as the strong euro led investors to question the timing of when the ECB would begin to withdraw its stimulus.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

• European equities trade lower amid disappointing PMI readings and downside in auto names
• Quiet start to the week for FX markets with participants eyeing this week’s FOMC meeting
• Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone and US PMIs, US Existing Home Sales

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,466.50
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 379.14
• MXAP up 0.03% to 159.58
• MXAPJ up 0.3% to 526.46
• Nikkei down 0.6% to 19,975.67
• Topix down 0.5% to 1,621.57
• Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 26,846.83
• Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,250.60
• Sensex up 0.7% to 32,251.51
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 5,688.07
• Kospi up 0.06% to 2,451.53
• German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 0.497%
• Euro down 0.2% to 1.1644 per US$
• Brent Futures up 0.3% to $48.19/bbl
• Italian 10Y yield fell 4.1 bps to 1.78%
• Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.457%
• Brent Futures up 0.3% to $48.19/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,256.03
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 93.93

Top Overnight News

• The Fed will unveil the timing of its balance sheet unwind in September and wait until December to raise interest rates again, according to a Bloomberg survey of 41 economists
• U.K. Trade Secretary Liam Fox will meet his U.S. counterpart in Washington on Monday as Britain seeks a trans-Atlantic trade deal as soon as possible after leaving the EU
• The world is leaning less on its biggest economy to sustain the global recovery, according to the International Monetary Fund. Beneath the global growth figures, the drivers of the recovery are shifting, with the world relying less than expected on the U.S. and U.K. and more on China, Japan, the euro zone and Canada, according to the Washington- based fund
• The Polish zloty jumped the most against the euro since May after Poland’s President Andrzey Duda said he’d veto part of an overhaul of the judiciary that’s brought tens of thousands of protesters into the streets across the eastern European nation
• U.K.’s Fox in U.S. to Argue for Quick Post- Brexit Trade Deal
• White House Team Differs on Trump Support for Russia Sanctions
• Euro Area Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Six Months
• OPEC Signals No Big Changes to Supply Deal at Meeting in Russia
• Fed Seen Making September Balance-Sheet Announcement: Survey
• America First No More as IMF Sees U.S. Fading as Growth Engine
• BMW Denies Diesel Cheating as EU, Germany Probe Auto Cartel
• Asda Is Said to Hold No Takeover Interest for B&M: Telegraph
• J&J Picks HIV Vaccine Candidate for Further Testing This Year
• Glaxo’s ViiV, J&J HIV Injection Shown as Effective as Oral Dose
• Blackstone Buys Clarion Events; No Terms
• Ireland to Hire Custodian to Manage Cash From Apple Tax Case
• Monsanto Cites Illegal Off-Label Products in Dicamba Findings
• Diebold Nixdorf Dragged Down by Peer’s Disappointing 3Q Forecast
• HCA in Pact to Buy Hospital From Community Health; No Terms
• Polish President Duda to Veto Part of Judiciary Legislation
• Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Agree to Settle Yen-Libor Lawsuits

Asian stocks traded mixed after quiet weekend news flow and with participants awaiting the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday. ASX 200 (-0.7%) traded negative as energy and financial sectors weighed on the index, whilst Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) also suffered in the red amid a strong JPY. Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) and Hang Seng (+0.4%) were higher following the PBoes firm liquidity injection of CNY 350b1n, in addition to some Hong Kong banks reducing deposit rates to less than 4% after declines in the CNH HIBOR. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with brief pressure seen after the BoJ Rinban announcement, in which it reduced buying of 5yr-10yr JGBs to JPY 470bn from JPY 500bn. PBoC injected CNY 200b1n via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 150bln in 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.7410, Prev. 6.7415.

Top Asian News

• China Banks That Funded HNA’s Growth Are Said to Halt New Loans
• Mystery Bond Trader Nets $10 Million on Treasury Strangle Gamble
• Singapore Startup Takes Bitcoin Into Real World With Visa
• India Starts Antidumping Investigation on Imported Solar Cells
• No Relief for Lanka Rupee Sliding at Fastest Pace Since 2006
• Exporters Lead Japanese Stock Decline as Yen Holds Gains

Broadly a negative start for European equities with weakness stemming from Automakers and Airliners. Germany automakers, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen softer this morning following reports that the European Union confirmed a probe into alleged price-fixing, while airliners have been dragged lower by Ryanair following the release of their financial results. Elsewhere, lower crude prices, coupled with weaker than expected Eurozone PMI readings has also added to the risk off tone. Credit markets have been supported by safe-haven flow, while peripheral bonds are slightly tighter to bunds this morning. Spanish debt supported from Fitch revising its outlook on Spain to positive, while month-end extensions are aiding OATs, Bonos and BTPs.

Top European News

• Saudi Energy Minister: Build-Up in Global Inventories Reversing
• Polish Zloty Jumps Most Since May as President Scraps Court Bill
• Telecom Italia Shares Rise as Board Meets to Approve CEO Exit
• Czech Top Judges Say Polish Judicial Reforms Undermine Democracy
• IMF Cuts U.K. Forecast After Disappointing First- Quarter Growth

In currenices, it has been a very quiet start to the week with the greenback a fraction firmer, however the bias remains to the downside amid the ongoing US political uncertainty. DXY saw a break below 94.00, hitting a low of 93.82 in Asia, slight attention will be placed on the FOMC decision, as participants look for clarity on the timeline of balance sheet normalisation. Antipodeans (AUD, NZD) were the notable mover overnight with much of the price action seen through the cross as AUD/NZD moved within a whisker of 1.07. RBA speak last week failed to temper the AUD rise with the currency consolidating above 0.7950 and hovering around 2Y highs. Focus will be on RBA. Governor Lowe on Wednesday who may also look to curb the recent surge. EUR sagging this morning having touched lasts week post ECB peak at 1.1684, while softer PMI releases from France and Germany have also added to the EUR easing. EUR slightly south of 1.1650 with bids noted just ahead of Friday’s low at 1.1619.

In commodities, crude prices were softer this morning with both WTI and Brent down initially, amid the OPEC/Non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting the Saudi Energy Minister has stated that there has been no discussion over deeper cuts, however there has been talks over Nigeria and Libya production caps, given their recent increase in output. Gold rangebound after prices briefly touched a 4-week high on the back of a politically. Subsequently the energy complex rebounded however, after the Saudi energy minister made some solemn promises, in which he saw Saudis capping exports at 6.6mmb/d, saying that Nigeria would cut if it reaches output of 1.8mmb/d, and sees a deep cut in Saudi August production.

Looking at today’s busy session, we get the July manufacturing, services and composite flash PMIs for Germany, Eurozone (both of which declined and missed expectations) and the US later this morning. Existing home sales data in the US will also be released.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.2, prior 52; Services PMI, est. 54, prior 54.2; Composite PMI, prior 53
• 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.57m, prior 5.62m; Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -0.89%, prior 1.1%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a long hot first half to the summer, Saturday was cold in Surrey with torrential downpours that lasted most of the day. Probably the one person in the UK doing cartwheels of celebration at this turn in the weather was my wife who has just about had it with being doubly pregnant in summer. The cartwheels are figurative of course as she is struggling with everything physical at the moment. Help is at hand though and today marks the start of what I’ve resigned myself to be the start of a 25 year (minimum) financial noose around my neck. We have hired a nanny who starts today. Just as her job is done, three sets of school fees will then filter through, followed by University fees, help with deposits on their first homes and then finally their weddings where at that point I’ll pass them on to be someone else’s financial responsibility. If I succeed I’ll tell you about it in the EMR sometime in 2042 via telepathic hologram or whatever medium this gets published via at that point. I’ll be interested to hear from the elder readers at what age their offspring became financially independent!

Moving on and forgetting the fact that I’ve now committed to a path with no return, the highlight this week are today’s flash PMI numbers and the FOMC meeting this Wednesday, although the latter will likely be a relatively mundane affair with the action perhaps being saved for a September balance sheet announcement. Nevertheless we’ll preview our expectations just before the week ahead at the end. One also has to keep an eye on all things Washington related following Friday’s announcement of Press Secretary Sean Spicer’s resignation. Mr Trump now has new people at the helm of both his legal and communications teams after resignations towards the end of last week. Late on Friday Congressional negotiators agreed to advance a bill punishing Russia for its involvement in the 2016 election and also restricting Presidential powers to remove sanctions on Russia. It will now go to a vote and if it passes Mr Trump could be in a difficult situation as he has publicly stated he wants improved relations with Russia but clearly if Congress has voted for the bill he’d be seen as siding with Mr Putin if he didn’t respond positively when it reached his desk. These matters are obviously important for many reasons not least as Mr Trump does need Congress on his side if he has hopes of rescuing his legislative agenda.

Elsewhere, today sees senior White House advisor Jared Kushner interviewed by the Senate Intelligence committee, with Donald Trump Jnr. and ex-Trump campaign Chairman Paul Manafort before Senate committees on Wednesday. As the week starts in Asia, the Nikkei (-0.9%) and the Kospi (-0.1%) have softened, but the Hang Seng is up 0.4% to be at the highest level since July 2015. The three key Chinese bourses ranged from -0.1% to +0.2%. Overnight the IMF have released their latest vow on the global economy and their chief economist is increasingly confident that “the recovery in global growth is on a firmer footing….there is now no question mark over the world economy’s gain in momentum,”. Headline global growth of 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018 is the same as April, but the projections now capture downward revision to US and UK, offset with improvements in China, Europe and Japan. Compositionally, US has been cut by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, to 2.1% growth in both 17 and 18. UK has been cut to 1.7% (-0.3%) for 17, while Europe is expected to grow by 1.9% in 17 and 1.7% in 18.

Despite a general lack of data on Friday, Global markets saw a broader risk off move. US and European equities were down with the DAX, STOXX 600 and S&P 500 falling -1.66%, -1.32% and -0.04% respectively. In Europe we saw losses across all sectors with Automobiles (-2.7%) being the worst hit while banks were also down -1.1%. In fact the DAX is now at 3 month lows, probably not helped by the 2-year high in the Euro. Indeed the dollar index fell by -0.5% on Friday to end the week down -1.4%, while the Euro continued to strengthen as it gained +0.3% on Friday (vs the Dollar) to end the week up +1.7% as a whole (+2.5% vs  Sterling). The S&P 500 did rally into the close after hitting its lows (around -0.4% for the day) around the time Europe went home. Energy (-0.88%) was the big laggard in the US after Oil fell -2.45% partly on news that OPEC supply this month is expected to be at its highest levels since December. This more than offset earlier week gains closing -1.7% on the week. Tech stocks were just in the red and ended a 10-day positive run. Precious metals also benefited from the risk off moves with Gold and Silver both ticking up by just over +0.5% respectively.

Credit Markets somewhat mirrored the risk off moves in equities. In Europe iTraxx Main was about -1bp tighter on the day but Crossover widened around +1bps. Risk off moves were more visible in the US where CDX IG was flat on the day but CDX HY widened by +3bps. Staying with credit, this morning we have published a Credit Bite where we highlight the resilience of the EUR HY market to the moves in government bond yields following Draghi’s Sintra speech. We do note however that there has been some weakness in the technicals that are worth keeping an eye on. If you haven’t received the report please contact Nick Burns.

Talking of yields, bonds continued their recovery on Friday as we saw yields on  US Treasuries (2Y -1bp; 10Y -2bps) and German Bunds (2Y: unch; 10Y -2bps) fall across most maturity points. Yields on Gilts (10Y -3bps), OATs (10Y -2bps) and BTPs (10Y -4bps) also dropped on the day. After a week where the ECB and Draghi were seen as relatively dovish on the pace of tightening (if not deviating from the message that tightening was coming), Bunds fell 9bps but Italian and Spanish bonds fell 22bps and 20bps respectively.

Taking a look back at Friday’s calendar, it was an uneventful end to the week in terms of macro data. In Europe the only data of note was UK public sector net borrowing data for June where the deficit overshot expectations at 6.3bn (vs. 4.2bn expected; 6.0bn previous). Across the pond there was no data of note in the US, but Canada saw June inflation come in just marginally below expectations (+1.0% YoY vs. +1.1% expected; +1.3% previous).

Before we detail the full week ahead, let’s preview the FOMC this Wednesday. Our US economics team published a note on Friday updating their view on the Fed and detailing their expectations for the July FOMC statement. They note that the Fed is unlikely to take any action in a policy firming direction at the meeting this week, partly because inflation has continued to surprise to the downside as of late. They do expect the FOMC statement to particularly focus on how the Fed will handle the dichotomy between a resumption of moderate growth and continuing improvement in the labor market on one hand and ongoing softness in inflation on the other. Given this dichotomy they modestly update their Fed view – they see the Fed pausing in Q1 2018 after another hike in December and then resuming at a pace of one hike per quarter thereafter, thus moving their Fed call in line with the median FOMC expectation of three rate hikes during 2018. On the topic of the timing of the initial taper of balance sheet reinvestment the team  believes that a July announcement and August tapering (while possible in principle) has a low probability given a) the recent softness in inflation; b) because Yellen did not take the opportunity at her Congressional testimony to more strongly signal a July announcement; and c) because market expectations are generally centred on a September announcement and October commencement. They note that these relatively strongly held market expectations should also allow the Committee to get by without giving any more specific guidance on timing even within this week’s statement.

To the rest of the week ahead now. Monday starts with the July manufacturing, services and composite flash PMIs for Germany, Eurozone and the US. Existing home sales data in the US will also be released. Onto Tuesday, Germany will have the IFO July index for business climate and expectations, while France will report confidence indicators for July. In the US on Tuesday data includes consumer confidence, FHFA house price index, S&P/Case-Shiller house price index and Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Turning to Wednesday, in the UK Q2 GDP is due, while the focus in the US will be the July FOMC rate decision. New home sales data will also be due. For Thursday, the morning session looks quiet with only Euro area M3 money supply data due. Across the pond the US will update its durable and capital goods orders for June as well as the initial jobless claims, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index. Finally, on Friday, the early data is out of Japan where June CPI data is due, while in Europe we have Germany and France providing an update on CPI. Euro area confidence indicators are also due. It’s a bumper end to the week in the US with the advance Q2 GDP report, core PCE and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

Onto other events. On Monday, the UK begins preliminary post-Brexit trade talks with the US, ECB’s Frank Smet’s will speak at Munich and OPEC and non- OPEC meet in Russia to discuss progress with production cuts. On Tuesday, the US secretary of Commerce will address the economic club of Washington. Onto Wednesday the Fed of Minneapolis President will be the first speaker post the FOMC decision. Finally, notable US companies due to report include: Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, AT&T, Twitter, Facebook, McDonalds, GM, Caterpillar, Ford, Boeing, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Exxon, Merck and AbbVie. Closer to home, we also have CS, BNP Paribas and UBS due to report.

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Polish President Andrzej Duda unexpectedly said on Monday that he would veto two of three bills reforming the country’s judiciary system, easing Brussels’ fears that the ruling Law and Justice party will undermine the division of powers. In a news conference on Monday morning, Duda said that he would veto two of three contentious bills, one that would have forced all members of the Supreme Court to step down, except for those kept on by the president; and a second that would have given parliament control over the National Judicial Council, the body that appoints judges, the FT reports.

“I have decided that I will send back to Sejm (lower house of parliament), which means I will veto the bill, on the Supreme Court, as well as the one about the National Council of the Judiciary,” Duda said after days of mass street protests adding “I regret that I, as president of the Republic of Poland, wasn’t consulted over this initiative before it reached the Sejm [the lower house of parliament]. I couldn’t carry out consultations [on this matter] and nor could the other interested entities.”

Duda’s veto puts him at odds with the de facto leader of the country, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who is the leader of PiS but has no formal government post, Reuters notes. Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party claims that the changes are necessary to overhaul an inefficient system that has not been purged since the collapse of communism almost three decades ago.

However, in recent days the legislation has faced mounting international criticism, and sparked days of protests, with tens of thousands of Poles taking to the streets to rally against the changes which they fear would undermine the independence of the judiciary. The US State Department on Friday urged Poland to “ensure that any judicial reform does not violate Poland’s constitution or international legal obligations and respects the principles of judicial independence and separation of powers”.

Duda’s decision was greeted by the opposition: “What we had was not a reform, but appropriation of the courts. I congratulate all Poles, this is a great success, really,” Katarzyna Lubnauer, head of the parliamentary caucus of the opposition party Nowoczesna.

Meanwhile the Polish zloty, which tumbled under pressure as the battle over the judicial reforms has unfolded, jumped on the news, trading up 0.9 per cent at PLN4.24 against the euro.

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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

On June 14, Reuters reported Munich, Home to BMW, Considers Diesel Ban to Tackle Pollution.

Today, with strong overtones of regulators hopping in bed with industries they are supposed to regulate, EU’s Car Regulator Warns Against Diesel Ban in Cities.

Munich, home to carmaker BMW, has become the latest German city to consider banning some diesel vehicles amid “shocking” nitrogen oxide emissions in the Bavarian capital.

 

“As much as I would welcome avoiding such bans, I think it is just as unlikely that we can continue to do without bans in the future,” Munich mayor Dieter Reiter was quoted as saying by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper on Wednesday.

 

Asked about the latest nitrogen oxide readings, which the paper said violated European air quality standards well beyond busy trunk roads, the mayor said: “The results are shocking, nobody expected this.”

 

The scandal over rigged diesel emission tests at Volkswagen has already thrown the future of diesel engines into doubt, and has highlighted carmakers’ struggle to comply with ever stricter rules on the nitrogen oxides emissions.

Regulators in Bed With Industry?

Flash forward to today.

Banning diesel cars in European cities could hamper automakers’ ability to invest in zero-emission vehicles, the European Union’s commissioner for industry has warned the bloc’s transport ministers.

 

In a letter seen by Reuters, Commissioner Elzbieta Bienkowska said there would be no benefit in a collapse of the market for diesel cars and that the short-term focus should be on forcing carmakers to bring dangerous nitrogen oxide emissions into line with EU regulations.

 

In the letter, Bienkowska told ministers she was concerned that the latest emissions violations at Audi and Porsche were discovered by prosecutors and not Germany’s vehicle and transport authorities.

 

Bienkowska’s letter also called for all cars with excessively high levels of nitrogen oxide emissions to be taken of European roads, but said carmakers should act on a voluntary basis.

 

Experts who have seen the letter to ministers say the commissioner appeared to be bowing to carmakers’ demands.

 

“Her letter contained some important statements that we believe show the industry’s lobbyists have scored a big win,” Bernstein analyst Max Warburton said in a report.

Diesel Job Math

The Center for Economic Studies (CESifo) produced a report on the German diesel industry for its stated client, the German Association of the Automotive Industry.

Let’s dive into the report on the Consequences of a Potential Ban on New Cars and Light Trucks with Combustion Engines.

Based on the structure of production in 2015, at least 457,000 employees are involved in producing types of products which would be directly affected by the ban (e.g., diesel engines). This is equivalent to 7.5% of overall manufacturing employment in Germany. The largest share of these employees (426,000) works in the automotive industry itself. If one includes product groups that would be indirectly affected (e.g., transmission systems, which are more complex in vehicles with combustion engines), the number of potentially affected jobs rises by 163,000 or an additional 3% of overall manufacturing employment. These jobs are mainly clustered in the metal industry: 102,000 employees in metal processing produce parts destined for vehicles with combustion engines. Taking the direct and indirect channel together, a total of at least 620,000 employees would be affected by the ban, which represents over 10% of total German manufacturing employment.

 

Among the 457,000 directly affected jobs, 31,000 jobs in small and medium-sized enterprises would be highly at risk. These firms can be expected to face larger difficulties than large companies in developing new alternative fields of business against the background of a major shift in propulsion technology. This share is substantially larger among indirectly affected jobs: Here 101,000 out of 163,000 jobs are situated in small and medium-sized enterprises and highly concentrated among automotive suppliers in the metal industry.

 

If value-added is considered instead of employment, these effects become even more pronounced. This is due to the exceptionally high average labour productivity in the automotive industry. If direct and indirect effects are combined, around 13% of German overall manufacturing value added would be affected by the ban. Based on the 2015 figures, this would represent a volume of 48 billion euros. In interpreting these figures, one has to bear in mind that not the entire workforce and value-added “at risk” would necessarily vanish. Some parts, for example, are also used in heavier trucks and buses, which would probably not be subject to the ban. In addition, new jobs in the areas of alternative propulsion technologies in Germany would help to limit employment reduction, at least in the aggregate.

Germany’s Over-Dependence On Diesel Technology

Eurointelligence discussed diesel in a recent article.

As we have noted time and again it is very hard for people to separate their expectations of the future from their fundamental beliefs. One of the unshakable beliefs in Germany is the virtue of the diesel car. It gives the German motor industry a competitive advantage that cannot be reversed.

Except, of course, through new technologies and shifting social trends.

 

We noted this tendency to wishful thinking again when we read a story in FAZ this week on the future of the diesel car in Germany, and the importance of the technology for the German economy. One of the statistics quoted is that one tenth of the jobs in German industry directly depends on the production of car engines. And so, the car-obsessed media reporters and German economists have a tendency to downplay technological, social, and political trends by insisting that diesel still has a future.

 

The Ifo institute has done the math on the impact of a diesel bans on the industry. It shows that 620,000 jobs in Germany directly and indirectly depend on the production of fuel engines for cars – about 1.5 percentage point of the labour force. This is about 10% of all jobs in German industry. These numbers would include suppliers, but presumably, do not take account of any multiplier effects one would observe if those jobs were to disappear.

 

The Ifo Institute made another important observation, according to FAZ. If fuel-driven engines were made illegal from 2030, Germany could reduce its carbon dioxide emission by one-third. But the study does not advocate such a strategy. Indeed the headline says that banning combustion engines is the wrong path to take. The Ifo institute favors free-market solutions to the problem. Ifo chief Clemens Fuest, who presented the study, argued that it would be a mistake to over regulate the industry because this would waste resources, which in turn would be bad for the goal of climate protection.

 

We also note confirmation bias among diesel advocates in that they only ever focus on carbon dioxide emissions, rather than the high levels of nitrogen oxides and other substances that are believed to be responsible for tens of thousands of death each year in Europe. This is the main reason why cities are now considering diesel bans.

 

The study also tried to correct the impression that German car makers are inactive when it comes to alternative technologies. According to the Ifo study, Germany registers around one-third of all global patents in the area of alternative engines – hybrid and electrical. We do not doubt that the German car giants are actively researching alternatives. But the point is that the competitive advantage of German motor manufacturing is predominantly based on its fuel-based engine technologies – an advantage that is bound to decline over time. They are not ahead of the game in the fields of hybrid and electric engines. There is an illusion in Germany that appears to equate the number of registered patents with future commercial success.

 

In the meantime, expect to see an increase in costs to maintain the diesel technology, and a fall in revenues. Diesel registrations in Germany are falling at a dramatic pace. And car companies are now paying for expensive recall operations, like Mercedes did this week, to upgrade existing cars with the latest software to optimize engines to reduce fuel emissions.

Protecting the Cheaters

My take is the focus on carbon dioxide is wrong. A focus on carcinogens and other pollutants would make more sense.

We can debate at length what pollution standards should be. What’s not debatable is German auto corporations lied and cheated their way to good results and now they are caught with their pants down, at least twice.

Either way, diesel is on the way out. And with that pending change, Germany’s vaunted lead in auto technology has turned into ashes.

Meanwhile, EU regulators are prepared to look the other way in an attempt to give German manufacturers time to catch up.

One can argue that letting the cheaters off the hook makes economic sense, but let’s be honest about what’s happening.

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