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In a desperate attempt to keep AAPL above $100 again, US equity markets are deja-vu-ing yesterday afternoon’s sudden (and newsless) vertical ramp to run stops this morning. As Rule 575 hits, it appears the new algo plan is just run stops wherever they may hide, because nothing says buying-panic (and selling VIX panic) like the uncertainty of a Fed meeting, Scottish vote, and Alibaba disruptions…

Ramp!

 

Driven by VIX selling (to some extent)

 

Playing catch up to AUDJPY…

 

as “most shorted” stocks are squeezed once again…

 

It appears the goal was to run to Friday’s closing VWAP…

 

Sending the S&P to run the stops from yesterday’s highs…

 

AAPL $100 saved…

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/XvAbe3 Tyler Durden

What a difference two weeks makes: On September 3, US “manufacturing” according to Bloomberg, grew at the fastest pace in three years…

 

Fast forward to yesterday,when somehow – in the face of allegedly soaring “manufacturing” – Industrial output dropped.

 

It is almost as if in the New Normal i) industrial output is no longer considered manufacturing and ii) when respondents are asked to share their outlook on the economy they have a, seasonally-adjusted of course, bullish bias.

Who would have thunk it?

But hey, as long as those PMIs and other now laughable surveys keep soaring, who cares about the actual “data.” All that matters is how people feel, and as such the time has clearly come to emotionally-adjust GDP as well.

h/t @GreekFire23

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/XvA95K Tyler Durden

As the Scotish independence vote draws near and remains too close to call, some analysts are suggesting Plan B for Scotland may be to choose to opportunistically default. This has done nothing to calm concerns of the aftermath of a “yes” vote – despite US asset managers proclaiming it irrelevant. Nowhere is that more clear than, as The Independent reports, Britain’s banks have been quietly moving millions of banknotes north of the border to cope with any surge in demand by Scots to withdraw cash in the event of a Yes vote in Thursday’s independence referendum, it has emerged. Bankers stressed there has been no sign yet of any increase in the amount of withdrawals from deposit accounts or ATMs, but the moves have been taking place over the past week or so in order to make sure ATMs do not run out on Friday in the event of a panic reaction to a “yes” vote.

As The Independent reports,

Britain’s banks have been quietly moving millions of banknotes north of the border to cope with any surge in demand by Scots to withdraw cash in the event of a Yes vote in Thursday’s independence referendum, it has emerged.

 

Sources told The Independent the moves have been taking place over the past week or so in order to make sure ATMs do not run out on Friday in the event of a panic reaction to a “yes” vote. There have been some suggestions that people will want to move their money to English banks in the event of an independence vote.

 

Bankers stressed there has been no sign yet of any increase in the amount of withdrawals from deposit accounts or ATMs, stressing that there was no need because the Bank of England has pledged to stand behind all accounts for at least 18 months in the event of a “yes” vote.

 

However, concerns about how safe is their cash still linger.

 

…

 

Sources at major banks said they had been issuing clear instructions to their Scottish branches to reassure customers there was no reason to panic.

 

One said: “We have seen a big rise in customers coming in and asking us what would happen, but there is no sign of any significant flow of deposits from north to south.”

…

 

Figures from the Bank of England show the number of notes in circulation has been creeping up steadily over the last year. This month there are 62.3 billion notes in the country, compared with 59.8 billion a year ago.

 

A source at one bank said: “This forms part of our contingency planning. We are, of course, monitoring the situation very closely from hour to hour.”

*  *  *

As Bloomberg reports, Salmond May Favor Opportunistic Default

Adopting sterling informally while reneging on debt might be Scottish govt’s plan B, Angus Armstrong, director of macroeconomics at Niesr, says in statement, citing comments from Scottish First Minister Salmond.

 

If Scotland refused to accept fair share of existing U.K. debt, it might be interpreted as a default, even if technically it wouldn’t be failure to pay

 

If Scotland were to not pay its share of debt, junk status is probable; it’s unlikely to be excluded from markets for the avg time of ~10 years, but there’s “no free lunch” from opportunistic default

 

Biggest hurdle for any Scottish bid for EU entry would be obtaining Germany’s “yes”

 

If Scotland sets precedent for EU membership after secession, despite debt repudiation, Germany would be exposed to other post-secession insolvencies

 

If Scottish govt chose to combine “sterlingisation” with reneging on fair share of existing U.K. debt, it would boost fragility of exchange-rate arrangement; Niesr economists expect currency arrangement would fail and Scotland forced to introduce its own new currency within 1 year.

*  *  *

Yet, American investors should not worry for some talking-head yesterday on CNBC proclaimed Scotland irrelevant (maybe he should tell the $30 billion in outflows that)…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/XbTA31 Tyler Durden

As the Scotish independence vote draws near and remains too close to call, some analysts are suggesting Plan B for Scotland may be to choose to opportunistically default. This has done nothing to calm concerns of the aftermath of a “yes” vote – despite US asset managers proclaiming it irrelevant. Nowhere is that more clear than, as The Independent reports, Britain’s banks have been quietly moving millions of banknotes north of the border to cope with any surge in demand by Scots to withdraw cash in the event of a Yes vote in Thursday’s independence referendum, it has emerged. Bankers stressed there has been no sign yet of any increase in the amount of withdrawals from deposit accounts or ATMs, but the moves have been taking place over the past week or so in order to make sure ATMs do not run out on Friday in the event of a panic reaction to a “yes” vote.

As The Independent reports,

Britain’s banks have been quietly moving millions of banknotes north of the border to cope with any surge in demand by Scots to withdraw cash in the event of a Yes vote in Thursday’s independence referendum, it has emerged.

 

Sources told The Independent the moves have been taking place over the past week or so in order to make sure ATMs do not run out on Friday in the event of a panic reaction to a “yes” vote. There have been some suggestions that people will want to move their money to English banks in the event of an independence vote.

 

Bankers stressed there has been no sign yet of any increase in the amount of withdrawals from deposit accounts or ATMs, stressing that there was no need because the Bank of England has pledged to stand behind all accounts for at least 18 months in the event of a “yes” vote.

 

However, concerns about how safe is their cash still linger.

 

…

 

Sources at major banks said they had been issuing clear instructions to their Scottish branches to reassure customers there was no reason to panic.

 

One said: “We have seen a big rise in customers coming in and asking us what would happen, but there is no sign of any significant flow of deposits from north to south.”

…

 

Figures from the Bank of England show the number of notes in circulation has been creeping up steadily over the last year. This month there are 62.3 billion notes in the country, compared with 59.8 billion a year ago.

 

A source at one bank said: “This forms part of our contingency planning. We are, of course, monitoring the situation very closely from hour to hour.”

*  *  *

As Bloomberg reports, Salmond May Favor Opportunistic Default

Adopting sterling informally while reneging on debt might be Scottish govt’s plan B, Angus Armstrong, director of macroeconomics at Niesr, says in statement, citing comments from Scottish First Minister Salmond.

 

If Scotland refused to accept fair share of existing U.K. debt, it might be interpreted as a default, even if technically it wouldn’t be failure to pay

 

If Scotland were to not pay its share of debt, junk status is probable; it’s unlikely to be excluded from markets for the avg time of ~10 years, but there’s “no free lunch” from opportunistic default

 

Biggest hurdle for any Scottish bid for EU entry would be obtaining Germany’s “yes”

 

If Scotland sets precedent for EU membership after secession, despite debt repudiation, Germany would be exposed to other post-secession insolvencies

 

If Scottish govt chose to combine “sterlingisation” with reneging on fair share of existing U.K. debt, it would boost fragility of exchange-rate arrangement; Niesr economists expect currency arrangement would fail and Scotland forced to introduce its own new currency within 1 year.

*  *  *

Yet, American investors should not worry for some talking-head yesterday on CNBC proclaimed Scotland irrelevant (maybe he should tell the $30 billion in outflows that)…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/XbTA31 Tyler Durden

PPI Final Demand was unchanged in August (+0.0% against expectations of +0.0%) making it lowest monthly gain since December 2013 (after revisions moved May’s data). Across the board producer prices rose (or didn’t) as expected with Final Demand YoY +1.8%. Energy prices fell 1.5% MoM and was the biggest driver of PPI’s relative weakness but notably prices for finished goods fell 0.3% – the biggest drop since August 2013.

PPI Final Demand MoM lowest in a year

 

Another way of seeing the drop in wholesale prices:

Most of the August decrease can be traced to the index for finished consumer energy goods, which fell 1.4%.

Within finished goods, falling prices for gasoline, residential natural gas, eggs for fresh use, home heating oil, pork, and fresh vegetables (except potatoes) outweighed rising prices for pharmaceutical preparations, potatoes, and processed fruits and vegetables.

And from the report:

Final demand services: The final demand services index climbed 0.3 percent in August after inching up 0.1 percent in July. Eighty percent of the August advance can be traced to a 0.3-percent rise in prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing. The index for final demand transportation and warehousing services also increased 0.3 percent. Margins for final demand trade services were unchanged. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)

Product detail: Accounting for over 20 percent of the August advance in the index for final demand services, prices for loan services (partial) increased 1.7 percent. The indexes for traveler accommodation services; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; hospital outpatient care; securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice; and airline passenger services also moved higher. In contrast, prices for services related to securities brokerage and dealing fell 4.5 percent in August. The indexes for food and alcohol retailing and for truck transportation of freight also decreased. (See table 4.)

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved down 0.3 percent in August, the largest decrease since a 0.7-percent drop in April 2013. Over 80 percent of the August decline is attributable to prices for final demand energy, which fell 1.5 percent. The index for final demand foods decreased 0.5 percent. Prices for final demand goods less foods and energy were unchanged.

Product detail: Over a quarter of the decline in prices for final demand goods can be attributed to the gasoline index, which fell 1.4 percent. Prices for utility natural gas, chicken eggs, diesel fuel, electric power, and raw cotton also moved lower. Conversely, the index for potatoes surged 28.0 percent. Prices for pharmaceutical preparations and jet fuel also advanced.

Special grouping, Final demand less foods, energy, and trade: The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.2 percent in August, the third consecutive 0.2-percent increase. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 1.8 percent. (The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services represents about two-thirds of final demand.)

Special grouping, Finished goods: Prices for finished goods fell 0.3 percent in August, the largest decrease since a 0.6-percent decline in April 2013. (The finished goods index represents about twothirds of final demand goods, through the exclusion of the weight for government purchases and exports. The finished goods index represents about one-quarter of overall final demand.) Most of the August decrease can be traced to the index for finished consumer energy goods, which fell 1.4 percent. Prices for finished consumer foods moved down 0.3 percent. In contrast, the index for finished goods less foods and energy edged up 0.1 percent. Within finished goods, falling prices for gasoline, residential natural gas, eggs for fresh use, home heating oil, pork, and fresh vegetables (except potatoes) outweighed rising prices for pharmaceutical preparations, potatoes, and processed fruits and vegetables

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1t5NxKg Tyler Durden

On the heels of yesterday’s almost unbelievable forecasts of the exponential rise in Ebola case counts – and warnings of a 20% chance of Ebola reaching the USA by year-end, WHO officials have confirmed that their previous forecasts of 20,000 cases “does not seem like a lot today.” This has, according to Reuters, the United States announced on Tuesday that it would send 3,000 troops to help tackle the Ebola outbreak as part of a ramped-up response including a major deployment in Liberia, the country where the epidemic is spiralling fastest out of control. Perhaps even more worrisome – for those who explained how ‘contained’ Ebola was – is the CDC’s release of an Ebola checklist warning American healthcare workers “now is the time to prepare.”

WHO warns the scale of the epidemic is unprecedented…

The unprecedented Ebola outbreak in West Africa requires a $1 billion response to keep its spread within the “tens of thousands” of cases, United Nations officials said on Tuesday.

 

The virus has killed 2,461 people, half of the 4,985 infected by the virus, and the toll has doubled in the last month, World Health Organization Assistant Director General Bruce Aylward said.

 

“Quite frankly, ladies and gentlemen, this health crisis we’re facing is unparalleled in modern times,” Aylward told a news conference in Geneva. “We don’t know where the numbers are going on this.”

 

He said the WHO’s previous forecast that the number of cases could reach 20,000 no longer seemed a lot, but the number could be kept within the tens of thousands with “a much faster reponse”.

As Reuters reports, Obama will unveil plans to send 3,000 troops to Africa today,

The president will visit the U.S. Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta on Tuesday to show his commitment. The stepped-up effort he will announce is to include 3,000 military forces and a joint forces command center in Monrovia, capital of Liberia, to coordinate efforts with the U.S. government and other international partners.

 

The U.S. response to the crisis, to be formally unveiled later by President Barack Obama, includes plans to build 17 treatment centers, train thousands of healthcare workers and establish a military control center for coordination, U.S. officials told reporters.

 

…

 

Liberia, a nation founded by descendants of freed American slaves, appealed for U.S. help last week.

 

“Highly infectious people are forced to return home, only to infect others and continue the spread of this deadly virus. All for a lack of international response,” she said.

 

…

 

The plan will “ensure that the entire international response effort is more effective and helps to … turn the tide in this crisis,” a senior administration official told reporters on Monday, ahead of the president’s trip.

 

“The significant expansion that the president will detail … really represents … areas where the U.S. military will bring unique capabilities that we believe will improve the effectiveness of the entire global response,” he said.

 

…

 

Obama’s administration has requested an additional $88 million from Congress to fight Ebola, including $58 million to speed production of the ZMapp experimental antiviral drug and two Ebola vaccine candidates.

 

Officials said the Department of Defense had requested to reallocate $500 million in funds from fiscal 2014 to help cover the costs of the humanitarian mission.

And then The Washingotn Examiner reports,

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warning hospitals and doctors that “now is the time to prepare,” has issued a six-page Ebola “checklist” to help healthcare workers quickly determine if patients are infected.

 

 

“Every hospital should ensure that it can detect a patient with Ebola, protect healthcare workers so they can safely care for the patient, and respond in a coordinated fashion,” warns the CDC.

 

“While we are not aware of any domestic Ebola Virus Disease cases (other than two American citizens who were medically evacuated to the United States), now is the time to prepare, as it is possible that individuals with EVD in West Africa may travel to the United States, exhibit signs and symptoms of EVD, and present to facilities,” it adds.

*  *  *
Contained?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1uDazIV Tyler Durden

On the heels of yesterday’s almost unbelievable forecasts of the exponential rise in Ebola case counts – and warnings of a 20% chance of Ebola reaching the USA by year-end, WHO officials have confirmed that their previous forecasts of 20,000 cases “does not seem like a lot today.” This has, according to Reuters, the United States announced on Tuesday that it would send 3,000 troops to help tackle the Ebola outbreak as part of a ramped-up response including a major deployment in Liberia, the country where the epidemic is spiralling fastest out of control. Perhaps even more worrisome – for those who explained how ‘contained’ Ebola was – is the CDC’s release of an Ebola checklist warning American healthcare workers “now is the time to prepare.”

WHO warns the scale of the epidemic is unprecedented…

The unprecedented Ebola outbreak in West Africa requires a $1 billion response to keep its spread within the “tens of thousands” of cases, United Nations officials said on Tuesday.

 

The virus has killed 2,461 people, half of the 4,985 infected by the virus, and the toll has doubled in the last month, World Health Organization Assistant Director General Bruce Aylward said.

 

“Quite frankly, ladies and gentlemen, this health crisis we’re facing is unparalleled in modern times,” Aylward told a news conference in Geneva. “We don’t know where the numbers are going on this.”

 

He said the WHO’s previous forecast that the number of cases could reach 20,000 no longer seemed a lot, but the number could be kept within the tens of thousands with “a much faster reponse”.

As Reuters reports, Obama will unveil plans to send 3,000 troops to Africa today,

The president will visit the U.S. Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta on Tuesday to show his commitment. The stepped-up effort he will announce is to include 3,000 military forces and a joint forces command center in Monrovia, capital of Liberia, to coordinate efforts with the U.S. government and other international partners.

 

The U.S. response to the crisis, to be formally unveiled later by President Barack Obama, includes plans to build 17 treatment centers, train thousands of healthcare workers and establish a military control center for coordination, U.S. officials told reporters.

 

…

 

Liberia, a nation founded by descendants of freed American slaves, appealed for U.S. help last week.

 

“Highly infectious people are forced to return home, only to infect others and continue the spread of this deadly virus. All for a lack of international response,” she said.

 

…

 

The plan will “ensure that the entire international response effort is more effective and helps to … turn the tide in this crisis,” a senior administration official told reporters on Monday, ahead of the president’s trip.

 

“The significant expansion that the president will detail … really represents … areas where the U.S. military will bring unique capabilities that we believe will improve the effectiveness of the entire global response,” he said.

 

…

 

Obama’s administration has requested an additional $88 million from Congress to fight Ebola, including $58 million to speed production of the ZMapp experimental antiviral drug and two Ebola vaccine candidates.

 

Officials said the Department of Defense had requested to reallocate $500 million in funds from fiscal 2014 to help cover the costs of the humanitarian mission.

And then The Washingotn Examiner reports,

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warning hospitals and doctors that “now is the time to prepare,” has issued a six-page Ebola “checklist” to help healthcare workers quickly determine if patients are infected.

 

 

“Every hospital should ensure that it can detect a patient with Ebola, protect healthcare workers so they can safely care for the patient, and respond in a coordinated fashion,” warns the CDC.

 

“While we are not aware of any domestic Ebola Virus Disease cases (other than two American citizens who were medically evacuated to the United States), now is the time to prepare, as it is possible that individuals with EVD in West Africa may travel to the United States, exhibit signs and symptoms of EVD, and present to facilities,” it adds.

*  *  *
Contained?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1uDazIV Tyler Durden

Russia could care less whether Ukraine signs meaningless accession agreements with Europe (as it just did) because at the end of the day, Ukraine needs Russia’s gas (if only for the next 4-6 years until Hunter Biden develops Ukraine’s shale deposits and the Qatar gas pipeline finally crosses Syria). Russia, however, is very angry when NATO gets ever closer to its borders, which it just did when earlier today, more than 1,000 troops from 15 NATO and non-NATO countries, including the US of course, are taking part in a military exercise in Ukraine.

The good news: The “Rapid Trident” exercise is happening near Lviv on the Polish-Ukrainian border, around 1,000 miles from the conflict in east Ukraine.

The bad news: 1,000 miles will hardly be considered enough by the Kremlin which will see this latest incursion by NATO ever closer to its border as another direct threat and a hint of what will happen if Ukraine is allowed to progress on its path of demanding entry into the military alliance.

From EuroNews:

Ukrainian army colonel, Oleksandr Syvak, said: “This year’s military exercise will concentrate on the particular aspects of the undeclared or “hybrid” war, which is happening in the east of Ukraine. This will be be taken into consideration during the military drill. The Ukrainian militaries will also share their experiences gained during the anti-terrorist operation”

 

Moscow has previously condemned what it calls NATO’s expansion in eastern Europe close to Russia’s borders.

 

In August, Ukraine’s prime minister said he would ask parliament to put the country on a path towards NATO membership.

 

At the weekend, the Ukrainian Defence Minister admitted NATO countries had begun arming his nation in the fight against the rebels – something NATO members had previously denied.

Euronews correspondent Mykhaylo Dubyak in Ukraine says: “In the Rapid Trident exercises, NATO and Ukrainian troops will train in how to react to an ambush and convoy operations, amongst other things. It will raise the combat capability of the Ukrainian army and may be used in operations in Donbas.”

Well, at least nobody is even hiding any more that NATO is both implicitly and explicitly involved in the Ukraine war, which has now surpassed simple proxy status and is in effect one between Russia and the West, quite directly.

And now we await as the Kremlin reveals yet another, massive “surprise” military drill just off the Ukraine border to make it quite clear how all this will end unless the warmongering puppetmasters operating behind the scenes are put in their place.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1qU7u5T Tyler Durden