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Saint Nicholas was a real, historical person.

But he didn’t live in some snowy Northern place like the North Pole or Scandinavia. And he probably wasn’t fair-skinned with ruddy cheeks.

He lived in the town of Myra – on the Southern Coast of Turkey – in the fourth century (it was then part of Greece). So he likely had an olive-colored, Mediterranean complexion:

Russian icon depicting St Nicholas with scenes from his life. Late 1400s or early 1500s. National Museum, Stockholm

And he didn’t ride a magic sleigh driven by flying reindeer, have a workshop full of elves, squeeze through chimneys with belly-defying dimensions, or maintain a naughty-or-nice list rivaling the NSA.

The real St. Nick came from a wealthy family, and his parents died in an epidemic when he was young.  Nick used his large inheritance to help the poor.

For example, poor young girls were likely to be sold into slavery because they didn’t have a dowry with which to attract a husband.  So on 3 occasions, Nicholas threw a bag of gold into a poor girl’s house through an open window … enough to provide a dowry so the girl could get married.

The bags of gold are said to have landed in stockings or shoes left in front of the fire to dry.  This led to the custom of kids hanging stockings or putting out shoes, hoping for gifts from Saint Nick.

Wikipedia notes:

He had a reputation for secret gift-giving … and thus became the model for Santa Claus, whose modern name comes from the Dutch Sinterklaas, itself from a series of elisions and corruptions of the transliteration of “Saint Nikolaos”.

My wife and I visited Nick’s church in Myra (now called Demre) on the beautiful Antalya coast of Turkey, where he served as Bishop for many years.

In addition to the bags of gold mentioned above, Wikipedia notes another basis for the Christmas stocking tradition: St. Nick put coins in the shoes of those who left them out for him.

 

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As MacLean’s Jason Kirby points out, the Bank has taken to YouTube to warn Canadians about the dangers of too much debt and unrealistic house price expectations. He wonders, however, whether anyone will listen as one after another real estate bubble form in Canada, a nation whose household debt ratio has never been higher.

As BMO pointed out, when the latest household debt ratio data was released, the upward trend in household debt goes back for the 26 years for which it has records and is showing no signs of slowing down.

“While it looks as though the Vancouver housing market is cooling after the foreign buyers’ tax was implemented, the Toronto market remains very strong, and others are showing signs of improving as well,” said BMO senior economist Benjamin Reitzes.

Meanwhile, none other than Canada’s central bank has ramped up its warnings about heavily indebted households and the unreasonable expectations driving the housing market, yet all indications are that Canadians have stuffed cotton in their ears.

In Toronto, for instance, house prices are up nearly 15 per cent since the summer when Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz warned that price gains in the city were “difficult to match up with any definition of fundamentals that you could point to.” In the more than 15 years that the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index has tracked property prices in the city, there’s never been a six-month period when prices rose that fast. Meanwhile, the latest figures released by Statistics Canada showed the household debt-to-income ratio broke yet another record in the third quarter.

Now Canada’s central bank is trying a different platform to get its message across: YouTube.

In a video posted Monday on YouTube, in conjunction with the release of the Bank’s semi-annual financial system review last Thursday, Bank of Canada senior policy adviser Joshua Slive sketches out how Canada’s dangerous brew of debt and inflated house prices could combine to devastate the economy.

Here’s the scenario that worries the Bank.

1. As the Bank has pointed out already, households are highly indebted and house prices are rising at an unsustainable rate, though as Slive observes, people can often cope with these vulnerabilities for an extended period.

2. That is, until an economic shock triggers a negative chain of events. For instance, a severe recession would lead to “a sharp increase” in unemployment.

3. A lot of households, especially those carrying the heaviest debt loads, would have trouble meeting their debt payments. As a result, some households would start to default on their loans, and in turn, banks and trust companies would foreclose and try to sell those houses.

4. At the same time, with the economy slowing, new buyers would delay house purchases until the economy improved. Given the challenges already facing the economy, this could “cause a large drop in house prices.”

5. If house prices fell, it would push down household wealth, which has received a huge boost from the housing boom, and that could curtail consumer spending, which itself has become a primary driver of growth. The added stress on the financial sector would also weigh on the economy as lenders cut back on making new loans. Slive doesn’t use the term, but what he’s talking about is a credit crunch.

There is good news, Slive says. Stress tests show Canada’s big banks will be just fine even with a large drop in house prices (stress tests also showed that both Belgian Dexia and Spanish Bankia were perfectly solvent just months prior to their respectively failrues). It’s also important to note that the Bank, in its financial system review, said there is a “low probability” of a sharp correction in house prices. But there’s no getting around the immense damage such a scenario would have on the economy.

The video is a break from regular fare on the Bank of Canada’s YouTube channel, which is largely made up of speeches by top Bank officials. And even if Slive’s delivery is trademark central-banker dry, the message is stark, and shows the Bank is desperate for Canadians to heed its warnings on debt and rising house prices.

If there’s one quibble to be made, it’s with the initial domino that the Bank sees setting everything in motion—a severe recession leading to job losses. Since the U.S. housing bubble popped and that country went into its long, dark funk, a chicken-versus-egg debate has raged over whether the housing collapse triggered the U.S. recession, or whether something else, like soaring oil prices, brought on the recession and turned the housing slowdown into a total collapse. What’s beyond debate is that America’s housing market reached its frothiest in mid-2006, and then began its decline, one-and-a-half years before the recession began.

Whatever the case, the Bank’s video should be another wake-up call for Canadians, but “not that anyone’s listening” as Jason Kirby laments.

Here’s the video in full.

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Did you ever wonder about the astonishing numbers behind Santa Claus and the great work he does every Christmas? If Santa Claus really exists, he certainly has his work cut out.

If the generous man from the North Pole had a present for every child in the world, his sleigh would weigh a whopping 1.52 million tonnes! Stopping off and having a snack at every house on the planet would satisfy his daily food requirements for 42,000 years!

With Christmas upon us, enjoy the unusual infographic below from Statista looking at the facts behind the real Santa Claus.

You will find more statistics at Statista

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I’d like to be able to say France withdrawing from the EU is a potential downside catalyst for stocks. However, these days nothing matters. Stocks would go up if nuclear war was initiated wordwide. There’s literally nothing that can stop stocks from heading higher.
 
But in the event you’re still nostalgic about news, France’s Le Pen wants stronger ties with Moscow, out of the EU and NATO — in an effort to make France great again.
 
She said NATO exists only ‘to serve Washington’s objectives’ and that “it was established when there was a risk from the Warsaw Pact and the expansionism of the communist Soviet Union.’ She furthered, ‘the Soviet Union no longer exists, and neither does the Warsaw Pact. Washington maintains the NATO presence to serve its objectives in Europe.’
 
On the topic of the EU, Le Pen wants out, saying “the people must have the opportunity to vote for the liberation from slavery and blackmail imposed by technocrats in Brussels to return sovereignty to the country.”
 
Moreover, she also suggested Portugal, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Greece and Cyprus should leave too — leaving a very cucked Germany by themselves holding their small balls.
 
As for the topic of refugees and immigration, she wants to send them, the fuck, back.
 

“I am against the policy which would promote the entry of immigrants into Europe, which cannot accept them … this tsunami of migrants should be limited. Europe does not have the power to ensure they all find work and opportunities to enrich themselves. Immigrants are illegal since once they set foot on European soil … they have violated the law. They must be sent back to their homeland. “

 
If she wins, the EU is over.

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

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While both global monetary and fiscal policies struggle to keep aggregate demand if not rising, then at least constant, demographics continues to wreak havoc on the best laid plans of central planners around the rapidly aging world. Just last week we reported that in 2016, the US population grew at the slowest pace since the Great Depression, largely driven by the collapse in household formation as the number of Millennials living at home with their parents has hit a 75 year high.

However, while the US is finally starting to feel the social, political and economic hit from an aging population, nowhere is the demographic impact more visible than in what is the epicenter of the developed world’s demographic problems: Japan. It is here that according to the latest government data, the number of births in Japan is likely to fall below a million this year for the first time since data became available in 1899, reflecting a fast-ageing society and the high cost of child care.

The number of births is estimated at 981,000 this year, down from slightly more than a million last year, data from the ministry showed. Births hit a record high of 2.696 million in 1949.

Japan will also post a natural population decline this year as deaths outpace births, its 10th consecutive drop, as seen by the light blue line in the chart above.

A shrinking population of women in their 20s and 30s is a key factor in the falling number, a ministry official said. Japan’s fertility rate was 1.45 in 2015, up 0.03 points from a year earlier, helped by an economic recovery, and is recovering from the record low of 1.26 hit in 2005. However, it is still far from the government’s goal of 1.80.

On Thursday, Japan’s cabinet approved a record $830 billion spending budget for fiscal 2017, which includes child-rearing support: at this rate, the local population may not need the free money in the not too distant future. The only hope, as in the case of many European nations, is that a surge in immigration will offset the natural decline of the domestic population whose average age has never been higher.

Meanwhile, after peaking at the start of the decade, Japan’s total population of 126.92 million is back to the where it was at the start of the century and declining fast.

* * *

Courtesy of Mizuho, here are some further observations on Japan’s demographic plight, and an amusing tangent where according to the Tokyo-based bank, Japan is now also fabricating demographic data to obfuscate the full severity of the demographic situation:

Summary and macroeconomic implications:

The total population of Japan was 126.92m in December 2016 (down 160,000 or 0.13% YoY). With statistical disconnects set to continue, it appears likely that users of population data for 2010–2015 will be kept in the statistical shade (there appears to be little will to conduct statistical revisions by bureau authorities). An increase in the foreign population has been especially conspicuous in areas such as Tokyo, with such increases partially offsetting natural declines. It will be interesting to see the degree to which trends in the foreign population are reflected in new population projection released after the end of January 2017. We have already noted that the Nikkei newspaper ran an article on its front page titled “Japanese births set to drop below 1m in 2016” on 22 December, and while this is an issue we have previously discussed in our reports, we will be focusing on reactions and measures undertaken by the authorities and politicians.

Disconnect in population statistics continues: population data for 2010–2015 to be kept in the statistical shade?

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ population estimates, the total population of Japan as of December 2016 was 126.92m (down 0.13%, or 160,000, YoY; see Figures 1 and 2).

Japan’s population statistics have reflected figures from the 2015 national census survey fully since October 2015, but estimates were based on figures from the 2010 national census survey in September 2015 and months prior, with this statistical disconnect to be allowed to stand without any retroactive revisions taking place. In essence, this means that the population is not falling by as much as expected and that previous population statistics can be assumed to be mistaken. According to Statistics Bureau authorities, there will be no retroactive revision of statistics and the statistical disconnect will live on in population statistics between October 2010 and September 2015.

This is a regrettable outcome both for users of the statistical data sets and policymakers involved in demographic planning. With the complementary correction value directly applicable only to the total population, we note that attribute-level data for this period have been rendered unsuitable for time series analyses. The total population on a seasonally adjusted basis (using the complementary correction value) declined 28,000 MoM in December (see Figure 5).

People aged 65 and over accounted for 27.32% of the total population in December, up 0.58ppt YoY, while the ratio of people aged 15–64 came to 60.27% (down 0.46ppt) and the ratio of people aged 0–14 came to 12.41% (down 0.11ppt)

We note that the net number of marriages (number of marriages – number of divorces) between August 2015 and July 2016 came to 413,000 (up 5,000), and while a decline in the number of divorces was the main factor here, we nevertheless note signs of a bottoming out in this data point. We will be following this as a leading indicator for the number of births moving forward.

We also note that the Tokyo Metropolitan Government released new population projection on 29 November. Tokyo’s population for 2015 was projected at 13.35m based on March 2013 population projection (according to National Institute of Population and Social Security Research), but in the event ended 150,000 above this at 13.49m. The updated stats also suggest a population of 13.98m in 2025, 800,000 above the previous projection (13.18m) (see Figure 11).

This research institute will be releasing new population projection from January 2017, but it will also be interesting to see how the “population pessimists” react thereafter. One of the main points of focus will be whether materials are updated using population data altered to reflect new estimates and statistical anomalies or whether there is a naïve ongoing use of old estimates. The upside being seen in Tokyo’s population stats has come about mainly as a result of prolonged lifespans and increases in the foreign population (which is growing at an annual rate of above 30,000) (see Figure 12).

There have been substantial net increases in the number of Chinese, Southeast Asians (especially Vietnamese), and South Asians (especially Nepalese) settling in Tokyo (see Figure 13).

* * *

Which is good news for the millions of Middle-eastern and north-African refugees who have suddenly found themselves “undesirable” in Europe: well, if Germany won’t have them, then surely Japan’s PM Abe will welcome them with open arms.

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During this season of joy and celebration, it appears not everyone is full of Christmas spirit. Last minute holiday shoppers have been filmed brawling with each other in New Jersey, Alabama, and Georgia shopping malls ahead of the holidays.

As The Daily Mail captures on video, a fight broke out at Jersey City’s Newport Center Mall on Friday night when two people started punching each other in the middle of a huge crowd. As onlookers gathered around while several people hit each other, a separate fight broke out off to the side. Multiple security guards tried to intervene and were punched in the process.  Video shot by a witness captured the ordeal, which happened right near where a line of children were waiting to meet the mall’s Santa.

Other fights broke out in Alabama and Georgia on Saturday as shoppers tried to finish up their Christmas shopping.

In the Alabama incident, a fight erupted between two women but was soon broken up by multiple officers at the scene.

Also on Christmas Eve, a man was taken to the hospital after he was stabbed while trying to break up a fight between two teenagers at the Alderwood Mall in Lynnwood. And so, what until recently was purely a “Thanksgiving” tradition, mall brawls across America are also redefenining the first word in Merry Christmas.

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By EconMatters

We discuss the Mexican Peso against the US Dollar in this video, looking at the history, fundamentals and technicals of the Mexican economy and its currency. Amazing the effects of a US Election cycle would have on Mexico and its economic prospects in 2016 and beyond.

 

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Data released by China’s NBS early last week confirmed that the latest Chinese housing bubble continued to deflate with 70-city housing price data confirming that home price inflation slowed in most cities in November, except in a few lower tier cities where home price inflation re-accelerated. The average, seasonally adjusted property price change was in November +0.7% from October, and up +12.9% yoy. This compares to October’s +1.2% mom increase and +12.7% yoy.

Average housing price growth continued to moderate in tier-1/2/3 cities.

While in year-over-year terms, housing price inflation continued to increase in most cities.

As Goldman pointed out, house price inflation decelerated in tier 1/2/3 cities: In tier-1 cities, November price growth was 0.5% month-over-month after seasonal adjustment, down from the 1.0% month-over-month growth in October. In tier-2/3 cities, housing price growth was 0.8%/0.7% month-over-month in November, vs. 1.4%/1.2% in October. In tier-4 cities however, housing price growth re-accelerated to 0.6% mom, from 0.3% mom in October (admittedly, however, only a few cities are included in our definition of tier-4 cities).  Soufun 100 city property price data released earlier this month also showed a similar trend – average housing price growth in the 100 cities moderated to 1.1% month-over-month in November, from 1.7% in October. On year-over-year basis, average price growth went up to 18.7% yoy from 18.2% yoy in October.

As a reminder, China had implemented a variety of measures in October and November, aiming at halting the latest dramatic spike in Chinese home prices, over concerns housing was becoming unaffordable for most local residents.  Following the tightening measures in a number of major cities in early October, property transactions and prices data showed signs of cooling down, especially in top tier cities.

According to NBS’s separate survey on 15 major tier-1/2 cities, compared with the first half of November, 9 cities saw housing prices falling in the second half of November, 2 cities saw flat housing price and the rest 4 cities saw a positive but slower housing price growth. Nationwide real estate FAI growth also decelerated in November. In last week’s Central Economic Work Conference, the tone on property market has turned less hawkish compared with earlier in the year, which may reflect the fact that policy makers are starting to be concerned about the downside risks associated with a property market slowdown.

Indeed, in the latest indication that China is waking up to the post-housing bubble realities, on Friday President Xi Jinping appeared to admit that China’s economic growth will slow below the government’s 6.5% target. Despite the promise of creating a “modestly prosperous society,” Xi warned that China doesn’t need to meet the objective if “doing so creates too much risk”, a warning that comes a little late for a country with 300% in debt/GDP…

… and where trillions in freshly created credit was spewed into zombified firms this year, mostly courtesy of the unregulated shadow banking system.

* * *

However, for now the top priority is further deflating the housing market, which will lead to a disinflationary shockwave around the globe, and will come at a time when the annual “blame it on the cold winter” effect is set to reappear for the 3rd consecutive year.

Case in point, as Reuters reports citing a Xinhua Sunday report, Beijing, one of China’s hottest residential real estate markets, will step up property controls to keep home prices stable next year.

That, in itself is not surprising; what is, however, is the admission from China’s Politburo media mouthpiece, which admitted that “due to speculators” – remember, it is never the central bank’s fault for injecting $35 trillion in financial system assets-  prices in the capital are already too high, and rising social tensions pose enormous challenges to Beijing’s stability, Xinhua reported, citing the Beijing Municipal Committee.

Here is the actual wording from Xinhua:

Beijing will increase controls on the property market to maintain stable home prices in 2017, said a statement issued after a plenary session of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China on Saturday.

 

Housing prices in the capital are already too high, said the statement, and ensuing increased social tension brings enormous challenges to sustainable development, harmony and stability in the city. 

 

The city will act against speculation and increase land available for building. On Sept. 30, Beijing announced higher downpayments on property purchases and more than a dozen cities have followed suit and tightened purchase restrictions. At the Central Economic Work Conference this month, policymakers highlighted the need to deal with asset bubbles next year.

With statements like this one, consider China’s housing bubble popped; furthermore, one can see why social tensions may be rising in Beijing: average new home prices in Beijing rose 26.4% in November from a year earlier, and that’s even after slowing for the second month following cooling measures taken by the government. On Sept. 30, Beijing announced a requirement for higher downpayments on property purchases. So far, the aggressively implemented cooling measures have failed to make a substantial dent in the capital’s home prices.

As noted previously, China will impose strict limits on credit flowing into speculative buying in the property market in 2017, top officials said at an annual economic conference earlier this month.

The threat, of course, is that China overdoes the “cooling” and what until a few months ago was a relentless housing bubble, it turns into an even sharper, and far more powerful bust.

It is this concern which prompted the Central Bank on Saturday to warn in the Financial News, a newspaper owned by the PBOC, that China needs to keep financial market liquidity stable and regulate its “money gates” to prevent asset bubbles, but it also needs to ensure a lack of liquidity doesn’t cause financial stress. This is a tension we touched upon last week when we documented the soaring bond yields on one hand, the result of modestly tighter financial conditions, and the ongoing surge in capital outflows and the plunge in the Yuan, both tied to the excess liquidity – and thus easy conditions – in the market; or as we framed it, a veritable Catch 22 for the financial system.

As Reuters adds, Chinese policymakers face a dilemma as they need to tighten credit to contain debt and speculative investment without triggering a wave of defaults that could destabilize the financial system. The country’s leaders have called for a “prudent and neutral” monetary policy in 2017 and for prevention of financial risk, while keeping the economy on a path of stable and healthy growth, according to statements following a key economic meeting this month.

Monetary policy needs to support economic growth and ensure enough liquidity in the interbank market, but also needs to target price stability and pay attention to asset bubbles, Financial News said in the commentary on Saturday. Policies should also be more targeted, the commentary said.

“Maintain macroeconomic stabilization policies, strengthen fine-tuning (of policies), but do not implement big stimulus,” the commentary said, but “explore more targeted ways to solve structural problems.”

The People’s Bank of China has not cut interest rates in 14 months, and as the economy has proved relatively resilient, the central bank has been guiding money market rates steadily higher in an effort to root out speculators.

In short: China is now at the point where any notable deviations from the status quo could lead to either a bursting of the housing bubble, or another surge in prices; to a paralysis in interbank lending and a wave of corporate defaults or another surge in capital outflows and new record lows in the Yuan. The response: it hopes, just like US markets hope that Trump policies will end up being benficial, that things will turn out ok. In the meantime, however, even China now admits that it is running out of time as “rising social tensions pose enormous challenges to Beijing’s stability.”

Our advice for 2017 to anyone curious where the next crisis will start – look no further than China, which is now not only trapped but any sudden, material change in the status quo can blow the entire house of cards down, with social upheavals just a few steps behind.

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Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

OK, this is actually pretty obvious – but it is worth pointing out that the “archipelago” of islands across the vast expanse of the United States that carried the vote for Hillary Clinton during the election – also happens to be a ring of the liberal cities that:

a) have exploded with crime, riots and unrest

 

b) have provided sanctuary for millions of illegal immigrants that have destabilized the country

 

c) are going bankrupt and will be unable to fulfill pension obligations, or pay their share of social security, welfare, etc.

 

d) have been foremost in advocating gun control, and ensuring that only criminals and police have guns, while 2nd Amendment arm-bearing citizen have flocked to the rural areas where their rights are not generally restricted

 

e) will be the first places to be become unstable during any major crisis – as soon as grocery store shelves go empty. Martial law will be the only way to maintain stability, and that will come at a further price to liberty.

 

f) will be the first place to line up for FEMA camps and beg for food, shelter and rations, again, at a further price to liberty

Of course, there are many more items that could be added to the list, but it gets tedious, and I think everyone gets the point.

Liberal havens have become largely clueless about the real world about them, and have turned a blind eye to the destabilizing forces that are compounding upon them.

IF/WHEN the SHTF, these will be the absolute last places you’d want to be caught dead.

IF you were clueless enough to believe Hillary’s lies and endorse the collapsing establishment line, then there’s a very good chance that you’ll have no idea what to do when the system breaks down. You will either help fuel or be caught up in chaos, violence and desperation – don’t let that be you.

As All News Pipeline reported:

Getting as far away from the large population hubs in America as possible should be looked at as ‘survival rule #1’ as ‘population density’ is one of the most important survival criteria. And with America’s large cities overwhelmingly voting for Hillary Clinton and ‘snowflake’ after ‘cupcake’ having nervous breakdowns recently, finding a place out in the mountains or the country should be a priority for anyone still stuck in the cities or large suburbs. Should chaos strike, would you rather ‘already be where you’re going’ or stuck with 100,000 or more ‘cupcakes’ trying to ‘get away’ from the madness?

And as SHTF noted last week:

Places like Baltimore, Detroit, Washington D.C., New York, Philadelphia and other cities across the map are still deeply divided often police and race issues. Many have seen serious riots, looting and unrest. These social wedge issues are still being pushed from moneyed political interests, while political divide after the direction of the country has become sharp.

 

Dallas, Texas just suspended pension payments for some of its civil servants, a sign that financial insolvency could create an epidemic during the next crisis. Several states, like California, have over promised benefits to state employees in the pension programs, without ever planning to pay for them. If people lose it, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and the whole of the surrounding areas could simply erupt. Similar problems have left Detroit, Michigan and Puerto Rico, the commonwealth island, extremely vulnerable to bankruptcy and economic apocalypse that could contaminate the nation and global within hours.

 

If a natural disaster, such as a hurricane, hits the East or Gulf Coast, tens of millions of people could be caught up in traffic, locked in cities without food, and desperate to cling to order and survive. Likewise, if a major earthquake hit the West Coast, millions could be displaced and left without many options. That’s when things turn ugly.

When these cities break down, you’re going to want to be far away from them, and far from the path of millions exiting them and looking for food, resources… and anything they can take.

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays… and stay out of harm’s way, whether it be in these disaster zone cities, or any other known risk potential.

Stay prepped, and stay focused on what may prove to be a difficult time ahead.

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‘Surprises’ for everyone…

 

Source: MichaelPRamirez.com

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