The ban on cash is coming. Soon.

This is starting to become very concerning.

The momentum to “ban cash”, and in particular high denomination notes like the 500 euro and $100 bills, is seriously picking up steam.

On Monday the European Central Bank President emphatically disclosed that he is strongly considering phasing out the 500 euro note.

Yesterday, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers published an op-ed in the Washington Post about getting rid of the $100 bill.

Prominent economists and banks have joined the refrain and called for an end to cash in recent months.

The reasoning is almost always the same: cash is something that only criminals, terrorists, and tax cheats use.

In his op-ed, Summers refers to a new Harvard research paper entitled: “Making it Harder for the Bad Guys: The Case for Eliminating High Denomination Notes”.

That title pretty much sums up the conventional thinking. And the paper goes on to propose abolishing, among others, 500 euro and $100 bills.

The authors claim that “without being able to use high denomination notes, those engaged in illicit activities – the ‘bad guys’ of our title – would face higher costs and greater risks of detection. Eliminating high denomination notes would disrupt their ‘business models’.”

Personally I find this comical.

I can just imagine a bunch of bureaucrats and policy wonks sitting in a room pretending to know anything about criminal activity.

It’s total nonsense. As long as there has been human civilization there has been crime. Crime pre-dates cash. And it will exist long after they attempt to ban it.

Perhaps even more hilarious is that many of these bankrupt governments have become so desperate for economic growth that they now count illegal drug activity and prostitution in their GDP calculations, both of which are typically transacted in cash.

So, ironically, by banning cash these governments will end up reducing their own GDP figures.

What’s really behind this? Why is there such a big movement to ban something that is used for felonious purposes by just a fraction of a percent of the population?

Cash, it turns out, is the Achilles’ Heel of the financial system.

Central banks around the world have kept interest rates at near-zero levels for nearly eight years now.

And despite having created massive bubbles and enabled extraordinary amounts of debt, their policies aren’t working.

Especially in Europe, the hope of stoking economic growth (and even the sickening goal of inflation) has failed.

So naturally, since what they’ve been trying hasn’t worked, their response is to continue trying the same thing… and more of it.

Interest rates across the European continent are now negative.

Japanese interest rates are now negative.

And even in the United States, the Federal Reserve has acknowledged that negative interest rates are being considered.

They have no other choice; raising rates will bankrupt the governments they support and derail any fledgling economic growth.

Look at how low interest rates are in the US– and yet 4th quarter GDP practically ground to a halt. They simply cannot afford to raise rates.

As global economic weakness continues to play out, central banks will have no other option but to take interest rates even further into negative territory.

That said, negative interest rates will be the destruction of the financial system.

Because sooner or later, if banks have to pay negative wholesale interest rates to each other and to the central bank, then eventually they’ll have to pass those negative rates on to their customers.

Many banks have already started doing this, especially on larger depositors.

We’ve seen this in Europe where some banks charge their customers negative interest to save money, and in some extraordinary circumstances, pay other customers to borrow money.

It’s total madness.

There’s a certain point, however, when interest rates become so negative that no rational person would hold money in the banking system.

Eventually people will realize that they’re better off withdrawing their money and holding physical cash.

Sure, cash doesn’t pay any interest. But it doesn’t cost any either.

If you have a $200,000 in your savings account at negative 1%, you’d have to pay the bank $2,000 each year.

Clearly it would make more sense to buy a safe and hold most of that money in cash.

Problem is, the banks don’t have the money.

For starters, there’s literally not enough cash in the entire financial system to pay out more than a fraction of all bank deposits.

More importantly, banks (especially in the US and Europe) are extremely illiquid.

They invest the vast majority of your deposit in illiquid loans or securities of dubious long-term value, whatever the latest stupid investment fad happens to be.

And many banks have been engaging in a substantial balance sheet shift, rotating bonds from what’s called “Available for Sale” to “Hold to Maturity”.

This is an accounting trick used to hide losses in their bond portfolios. But it also means they have less liquidity available to support bank customer withdrawal requests.

The natural side effect of negative interest rates is pushing people to hold money outside of the banking system.

Yet it’s clear that a surge of withdrawal requests would bring down that system.

Banks don’t want that to happen. Governments don’t want that to happen.

But since central banks have no other choice than to continue imposing negative interest rates, the only logical option is to ban cash and force consumers to hold their money within the banking system.

Make no mistake, this is absolutely a form of capital controls. And it’s coming soon to a banking system near you.

PS. Clearly a trend with this much momentum requires some deliberate and measured action if you don’t want your savings trapped.

We’ll discuss this in our upcoming webinar.

I hate to belabor the point, but it should be obvious that these things are happening, quickly, and I can promise that you’ll get a ton of great information and solutions with the small investment of your time.

Sign up here to attend for free.

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Housing Starts, Permits Drop For Second Month As Homebuilding Activity Remains Far Below Prior Peak

Today’s batch of housing data, namely the January update of housing starts and permits, which as a reminder has a quite substantial “confidence interval” of between 10.5% and 28.3%, was largely uneventful.

Total housing starts of 1099K was the second consecutive drop from last month’s downward revised 1,143K, and a miss to the 1,173K expected. This was due to a drop in both 1-unit structures, which declined from 761K to 731K in all regions led by the Midwest, as well as a decline in multi-family, or rental, units which dropped from 363K to 354K. Can’t blame the weather this time.

 

The silver lining to the Starts miss was the small Permits print, which at 1,202K beat expectations of 1,200K, but like with starts was the second consecutive drop from the substantially downward revised January number of 1.204MM (down from 1.232MM) and November’s 1.282MM. And while rental unit permits rose by a modest 1.1% to 442K, the single-family permits declined by 1.6% to 720K, below the

 

What goes without saying is that both starts and permits remain well below their 2007 highs, and what is more troubling is that as the Y/Y change chart shown below demonstrates, the growth rate is rapidly approaching the X-axis if not sliding below it.


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Core Inflation Spikes Most In 15 Months

Producer Prices (ex food and energy) jumped 0.4% MoM – the biggest rise since Oct 2014 (and dramatically hotter than the 0.1% rise expected). Rubbing salt into Fed mandate wounds still further is last month’s print was also revised higher and YoY (+0.6%) is the highest since Sep 2015. Across the range of PPI data, all items came hotter than expected in January (despite a 5% drop in Energy) with Food rising most.

Inflation hotting up…

 

So, inflation is starting to hot up and the jobs data is ‘awesome’ – what is The “data dependent” Fed to do next?


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Tim Cook Refuses To Comply With “Chilling” Government Demand To “Build A Backdoor” Into iPhone

Following the December 2 horrific mass shooting in San Benardino, Judge Sheri Pym of U.S. District Court in Los Angeles said on Tuesday that Apple must provide “reasonable technical assistance” to investigators seeking to unlock data on – in other words hack – an iPhone 5C that had been owned by Syed Rizwan Farook, one of the San Bernardino shooters.

Tim Cook has refused to comply.

The Apple CEO said his company opposed the demand from the judge to help the FBI break into the iPhone. Cook said that the demand threatened the security of Apple’s customers and had “implications far beyond the legal case at hand.”

It gets worse: in a letter to Apple’s customers, Cook said the FBI had asked the company to build “a backdoor to the iPhone”, and while this may not have been an issue in the pre-Snowden days, has become a very sensitive topic for a nation that realizes its government is intent on tracking its every move.

The government is asking Apple to hack our own users and undermine decades of security advancements that protect our customers — including tens of millions of American citizens — from sophisticated hackers and cybercriminals,” he said. 

“We can find no precedent for an American company being forced to expose its customers to a greater risk of attack.”

Cook’s summary:

The implications of the government’s demands are chilling. If the government can use the All Writs Act to make it easier to unlock your iPhone, it would have the power to reach into anyone’s device to capture their data. The government could extend this breach of privacy and demand that Apple build surveillance software to intercept your messages, access your health records or financial data, track your location, or even access your phone’s microphone or camera without your knowledge.”

While we applaud Cook’s rebelliousness, we wonder just how much of it is merely theater. After all as Snowden previously revealed, the NSA already has full access to all the iPhone data it needs. Recall from “NSA Mocks Apple’s “Zombie” Customers; Asks “Your Target Is Using A BlackBerry? Now What?” where we noted something quite amusing:

the NSA itself mocks Orwell, using a reference from the iconic Apple “1984” advertisement

 

… As it says the man who has become “Big Brother” is none other than AAPL’s deceased visionary leader Steve Jobs…

… And is so very grateful for Apple’s paying client “Zombies” who make its job so much easier

 

 

Lucky for Tim Cook, the American collective may have “secure” phones, but its memory lasts 15 minutes tops.

Here is the full Tim Cook note:

A Message to Our Customers

The United States government has demanded that Apple take an unprecedented step which threatens the security of our customers. We oppose this order, which has implications far beyond the legal case at hand.

This moment calls for public discussion, and we want our customers and people around the country to understand what is at stake.
The Need for Encryption

Smartphones, led by iPhone, have become an essential part of our lives. People use them to store an incredible amount of personal information, from our private conversations to our photos, our music, our notes, our calendars and contacts, our financial information and health data, even where we have been and where we are going.

All that information needs to be protected from hackers and criminals who want to access it, steal it, and use it without our knowledge or permission. Customers expect Apple and other technology companies to do everything in our power to protect their personal information, and at Apple we are deeply committed to safeguarding their data.

Compromising the security of our personal information can ultimately put our personal safety at risk. That is why encryption has become so important to all of us.

For many years, we have used encryption to protect our customers’ personal data because we believe it’s the only way to keep their information safe. We have even put that data out of our own reach, because we believe the contents of your iPhone are none of our business.

The San Bernardino Case

We were shocked and outraged by the deadly act of terrorism in San Bernardino last December. We mourn the loss of life and want justice for all those whose lives were affected. The FBI asked us for help in the days following the attack, and we have worked hard to support the government’s efforts to solve this horrible crime. We have no sympathy for terrorists.

When the FBI has requested data that’s in our possession, we have provided it. Apple complies with valid subpoenas and search warrants, as we have in the San Bernardino case. We have also made Apple engineers available to advise the FBI, and we’ve offered our best ideas on a number of investigative options at their disposal.

We have great respect for the professionals at the FBI, and we believe their intentions are good. Up to this point, we have done everything that is both within our power and within the law to help them. But now the U.S. government has asked us for something we simply do not have, and something we consider too dangerous to create. They have asked us to build a backdoor to the iPhone.

Specifically, the FBI wants us to make a new version of the iPhone operating system, circumventing several important security features, and install it on an iPhone recovered during the investigation. In the wrong hands, this software — which does not exist today — would have the potential to unlock any iPhone in someone’s physical possession.

The FBI may use different words to describe this tool, but make no mistake: Building a version of iOS that bypasses security in this way would undeniably create a backdoor. And while the government may argue that its use would be limited to this case, there is no way to guarantee such control.

The Threat to Data Security

Some would argue that building a backdoor for just one iPhone is a simple, clean-cut solution. But it ignores both the basics of digital security and the significance of what the government is demanding in this case.

In today’s digital world, the “key” to an encrypted system is a piece of information that unlocks the data, and it is only as secure as the protections around it. Once the information is known, or a way to bypass the code is revealed, the encryption can be defeated by anyone with that knowledge.

The government suggests this tool could only be used once, on one phone. But that’s simply not true. Once created, the technique could be used over and over again, on any number of devices. In the physical world, it would be the equivalent of a master key, capable of opening hundreds of millions of locks — from restaurants and banks to stores and homes. No reasonable person would find that acceptable.

The government is asking Apple to hack our own users and undermine decades of security advancements that protect our customers — including tens of millions of American citizens — from sophisticated hackers and cybercriminals. The same engineers who built strong encryption into the iPhone to protect our users would, ironically, be ordered to weaken those protections and make our users less safe.

We can find no precedent for an American company being forced to expose its customers to a greater risk of attack. For years, cryptologists and national security experts have been warning against weakening encryption. Doing so would hurt only the well-meaning and law-abiding citizens who rely on companies like Apple to protect their data. Criminals and bad actors will still encrypt, using tools that are readily available to them.
A Dangerous Precedent

Rather than asking for legislative action through Congress, the FBI is proposing an unprecedented use of the All Writs Act of 1789 to justify an expansion of its authority.

The government would have us remove security features and add new capabilities to the operating system, allowing a passcode to be input electronically. This would make it easier to unlock an iPhone by “brute force,” trying thousands or millions of combinations with the speed of a modern computer.

The implications of the government’s demands are chilling. If the government can use the All Writs Act to make it easier to unlock your iPhone, it would have the power to reach into anyone’s device to capture their data. The government could extend this breach of privacy and demand that Apple build surveillance software to intercept your messages, access your health records or financial data, track your location, or even access your phone’s microphone or camera without your knowledge.

Opposing this order is not something we take lightly. We feel we must speak up in the face of what we see as an overreach by the U.S. government.

We are challenging the FBI’s demands with the deepest respect for American democracy and a love of our country. We believe it would be in the best interest of everyone to step back and consider the implications.

While we believe the FBI’s intentions are good, it would be wrong for the government to force us to build a backdoor into our products. And ultimately, we fear that this demand would undermine the very freedoms and liberty our government is meant to protect.

Tim Cook


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Stocks Have Taken Out Critical Support… Prepare Now!

One of the most critical lines to watch is the 12-month moving average for stocks.

 

Historically this line has served well as a proxy for determining if stocks were in a bull or bear market. When stocks rallied above this line, they were in a bull market. When they fell below this line, they were in a bear market.

 

 

As you can see, this line was a great metric for targeting when to enter or exit the markets.

 

The significance of this line was somewhat obscured by Fed policy post-2009. Put simply, anytime stocks broke below the critical 12-month moving average, the Fed unveiled a new monetary program to reignite the bull market.

 

 

However, starting in 2011, the Fed got its wish (a long-term bull market) by convincing enough investors that whenever stocks collapsed into dangerous territory, the Fed would stop in. From that point onward, stocks stayed above the 12-month moving average.

 

Until today.

 

The China Yuan devaluation in August 2015 triggered a sharp sell-off for stocks that took us below the 12-month moving average. The bulls tried desperately to reclaim this line in October-December but have failed.

 

 

On top of this, the Fed is now tightening rates. And with a US Presidential election only nine months away, the Fed’s hands are tied regarding another QE program (the fact the Fed’s policies have increased wealth inequality has become a campaign issue).

 

Which means… stocks have very likely just entered a bear market. Few investors have caught on to this yet, but when they do, there will be a selling panic, possibly even a CRASH.

 

Smart investors are preparing now.

We just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

 

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

 

We are giving away just 1,000 copies for FREE to the public.

 

To pick up yours, swing by:

http://ift.tt/1HW1LSz

 

Best Regards

 

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research


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Downturn Now Hitting The Refining Sector

Submitted by Michael McDonald of OilPrice

Downturn Now Hitting The Refining Sector

As all energy investors know, it has been a terrible year for oil and natural gas companies. Many stocks are down half or more from their 52-week highs. Yet amidst the carnage, one energy group has held up very well – refiners.


Companies like Valero (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX) have traded flat or even moved higher over the last year. This reality has largely been driven by the glut of crude bringing down input prices for these firms while continued stable demand for gasoline and diesel has led to better crack spreads. The crack spread refers to the profit per barrel of oil that refiners earn from turning oil into finished products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

While 2015 was a strong year for downstream operators, refiners could soon follow oil companies’ downward trajectory. Crack spreads are increasingly coming under pressure as the laws of supply and demand come into balance. Highly profitable crack spreads are drawing more refining capacity online and leading to more supply for many derivative oil products. Established refiners are struggling to combat already high inventories of gasoline and other products by cutting production at key plants, but that effort is unlikely to help sustain cracking margins over the short term. Energy analysts are forecasting that cracking spreads will fall substantially and margins in certain areas of the country such as the Midwest are already under severe pressure or are even negative thanks to limited storage capacity for final delivery products.

The situation is little better overseas. Asian fuel producers are facing increasing competition from China, which is exporting a surging level of refined crude products. Chinese net product exports are forecast to rise by 31 percent this year over and above robust export increases last year. Diesel exports rose 75 percent from China last year much to the chagrin of Indian and South Korean refiners.

Just like in the U.S., margins for cracking have fallen hard as new supply has rushed to take advantage of lucrative opportunities in the field. Singapore Dubai cracking margins are running around $1.90 per barrel so far for 2016 versus $3.96 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2015.

China is hurting refiners and the global petroleum market in two ways then. First, the sudden shift in Chinese economic models has curtailed domestic oil demand, leading to falling oil prices and falling domestic demand for industrial oil derivatives. Second, to help Chinese refineries cope with the new harsh market conditions, China has started allowing many independent Chinese refineries to ship their output abroad. Diesel margins are particularly at risk as the product has seen a significant slowing of domestic Chinese demand and thus a very rapid build in export volumes.

With diesel exports authorized up to 1.8 million barrels per day for China, versus 900,000 barrels per day last year, there is little doubt that Asian diesel prices will fall dramatically. This may cause a chain reaction that slowly spreads west perhaps ultimately hampering margins in Europe as well.

Investors cannot do anything to stop this negative chain of events and there is little sign of the situation improving in the near term. While crude has managed to rebound off of its recent lows, that reality is cold comfort for most investors and only serves to hide the fact that oil prices are likely at least $20 per barrel below where most producers need them to be. If cracking margins ultimately plumb the same relative depths of profitability (or lack thereof), then 2016 could prove to be a harsh year indeed for refiners.


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Bombardier Thanks Canada For $1 Billion Bailout By Firing 7,000 People

Back in October, Quebec put taxpayers on the hook for a $1 billion bailout of planemaker Bombardier, which was having one hell of a hard time creating a buzz around its CSeries commercial jet program.

Bombardier has been around for nearly 8 decades and employees more than 40,000 people in the province. The company’s role in the provincial economy is “incalculable,” Quebec’s Economy Minister Jacques Daoust said last year. “How can I let them go?” he asked.

For its money, Quebec would get a 49.5% stake in a new business that will own the assets and liabilities of the CSeries commercial jet program, which isn’t exactly going well. In exchange, the company promised to manufacture the aircraft in the province for at least 20 years. “How confident is Quebec that this will fan out for the economy and taxpayers? That’s what we don’t know,” Paul Boothe, a former senior Canadian official who was the federal government’s lead negotiator with the domestic units of GM during bailout talks in 2009 said at the time.

Well, now we do know. On Wednesday, Bombardier announced it’s cutting 7,000 jobs as part of a “global workforce optimization.

“Impacted positions are mostly based in Canada and Europe,” the company said this morning, after reporting results that missed estimates on both the top and bottom line. Here’s the breakdown:

So obviously that sounds bad, but don’t worry because the job losses will be “partially offset” by hiring in “certain growth areas.” Like the CSeries program. Which is “growing” so fast that the company had to take a $1 billion bailout from the provincial government to shore it up.

“Production rates for some models have been modified,” Bombardier goes on to say, in an attempt to explain the layoffs, “due to macroeconomic conditions.” For those who don’t read a lot of quarterly reports, that’s a polite way of saying this: “demand is really, really soft.”

The company says the CSeries program has “generated new jobs at the Bombardier facility in Mirabel, Québec,” although the number of new jobs isn’t specified nor does the company indicate what the net job creation (or, more likely, “job destruction”) will be in Canada after the “optimization” is implemented. 

As for the company’s 2016 outlook, revenue guidance looks well short of estimates at $16.5-17.5 billion (consensus was $18.2 billion), while FCF usage is generally in line at between $1 billion to $1.3 billion, although if it comes in at the high end, that will be close to the highest analyst estimate. The company burned $1.82 billion in 2015. Here’s the full guidance breakdown:

On the bright side, Bombardier and Air Canada announced today that they’ve signed a Letter of Intent for the sale and purchase of 45 CS300 aircraft with options for an additional 30 CS300 aircraft, including conversion rights to the CS100 aircraft. 

Oh, and the company is going to try a reverse split to make it seem like its shares aren’t worthless.

So there you go Canada, Bombardier thanks you for the $1 billion you gave it. Any time you want to fork over some more money in exchange for thousands of layoffs, make sure to let the company know. They’ll be happy to oblige.


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Frontrunning: February 17

  • Futures rise as oil gains hold steady (Reuters)
  • China promises economic stability as G20, parliament loom (Reuters)
  • Obama scolds Senate Republicans for Supreme Court threat (Reuters)
  • China Deploys Missiles on Disputed South China Sea Island (WSJ)
  • China Ramps Up Rhetoric, Plans New Steps to Juice Up Economy (BBG)
  • China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line (WSJ)
  • Banks are still the weak links in the economic chain (FT)
  • The Great Iron-Ore Flood Claims Anglo as Biggest Victim (BBG)
  • Apple CEO opposes court order to help FBI unlock iPhone (Reuters)
  • Ferrari Jumps After Soros Emerges Among Top 10 Shareholders (BBG)
  • Wall Street Girds for Commercial-Property Debt It Must Invest In (BBG)
  • The eurozone can’t survive another banking crisis (MW)
  • Glencore Wins Vote of Confidence After Signing Refinancing (BBG)
  • Japan Shelves Plan to Let Pension Fund Directly Invest in Stocks (WSJ)
  • Japan automaker unions’ underwhelming pay demands challenge Abenomics (Reuters)
  • Negative rate not having intended effect (Nikkei)
  • Minimum Wage Hikes Aren’t All Bad News for Wal-Mart (BBG)
  • Lost in translation: Wal-Mart stumbles hard in Brazil (Reuters)
  • Slowing Trade Flows Jolt Asia’s Exporting Nations (WSJ)
  • Greenlight Capital Exited Micron Stake in Fourth Quarter (WSJ)
  • Can a Reality TV Show Help Cut America’s Power Bill? (BBG)
  • Big Media’s Fortunes Wane as Cable Operators Prosper (WSJ)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– President Barack Obama said he seeks an ‘indisputably’ qualified successor to Justice Antonin Scalia, while administration officials indicated he wants a Supreme Court nominee who can attract some Republican support. (http://on.wsj.com/1QkclMs)

– Valuations of companies such as Viacom and Walt Disney are under pressure, as cable operators including Comcast and Cablevision hold steady amid cord-cutting fears. (http://on.wsj.com/1Qkcrng)

– Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would cap production if major producers followed suit, but oil prices fell as Iran balked and investors looked for more concrete action to reduce a global glut. (http://on.wsj.com/1QkcteW)

– The Dodd-Frank Act didn’t go far enough; more needs to be done to end the risks posed by banks that have grown too big to fail, Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari said. (http://on.wsj.com/1QkctLQ)

– China has positioned surface-to-air missiles on a disputed island in the South China Sea in one of the most aggressive military steps so far by Beijing in a burgeoning standoff with Washington. (http://on.wsj.com/1ontAQd)

 

FT

Anglo American said on Tuesday it plans to sell its iron ore, coal and nickel units as part of a sweeping strategic overhaul to cope with a commodities rout that has triggered a fight for survival even among heavyweight miners.

Daimler AG Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche’s contract was extended by three years on Tuesday, setting the stage for a younger generation of automotive managers to succeed him.

British lender Metro Bank Plc <IPO-METRO.L> is cutting the price of its initial public offering by about 17 percent, following the recent sell-off across the banking sector, investors in the UK bank were told on Tuesday night.

 

NYT

– Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar agreed to hold production steady, a move intended to bolster energy prices. But they will proceed only if others join. The plan indicates how deeply prices have fallen, as Russia and Saudi Arabia have previously resisted tempering production.(nyti.ms/20YpYWK)

– A newly declassified report by the National Security Agency’s inspector general suggests that the government is receiving far less data from Americans’ international Internet communications than privacy advocates have long suspected. (nyti.ms/1KoNy7r)

– European Union authorities on Tuesday stepped up efforts to reduce reliance on Russian natural gas as the two sides face off over a litany of geopolitical disputes, from the conflict in Ukraine to the civil war in Syria. (nyti.ms/1onlw1Z)

– Teams of government lawyers, the FBI and Homeland Security are trying to recover assets the United States says were stolen by foreign officials. (nyti.ms/1mGwAWG)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Investment by automakers in Canada doubled last year from 2014 levels, but the country failed to win any of the three new assembly plants that were announced for North America. (bit.ly/1R7Fbwn)

** Finance Minister Bill Morneau says balancing the books is now a long-term goal, providing further evidence that the Liberal government is backing away from its pledge to erase the deficit before the next election. (bit.ly/1Q0Y3OR)

** The British Columbia government used its balanced budget on Tuesday as leverage to wrestle with the country’s hottest real estate market, introducing tax incentives designed to spur housing construction. (bit.ly/1SRIETq)

NATIONAL POST

** After a bizarre appointment snafu that blew up a normally secretive process, Ontario finally has a permanent ombudsman in Paul Dube, who will formally assume the role on April 1. (bit.ly/1PEXdFW)

** Hundreds of maple syrup producers braved snow and freezing rain in Quebec City on Tuesday to march on the National Assembly in protest against a new government report that they say, if implemented, will ruin their industry. (bit.ly/1Q10PDx)

 

Britain

The Times

– Vodafone Group Plc’s decision to go double Dutch by combining its mobile network in the Netherlands with Liberty Global’s cable network Ziggo has prompted fevered speculation that it could be a forerunner for a full merger. (http://thetim.es/2496kpP)

– Politicians outraged by Mike Ashley’s refusal to appear before parliament may get the chance to grill the founder of Sports Direct International Plc over the running of his sports fashion company. The entrepreneur is reported to have offered to meet MPs and answer any questions about working conditions at the retailer’s headquarters and giant warehouse facility. (http://thetim.es/2498Ooe)

The Guardian

– The price of an average home in Britain rose 18,000 pounds ($25,729.20) last year, according to government figures that also revealed sharp regional differences in the housing market. The 6.7 percent pace of growth was slower than the 9 percent rise recorded in 2014, but far exceeded increases in wages or general inflation. (http://bit.ly/2496EVO)

The Telegraph

– UK inflation crept up by 0.3 percent in the year to January, from 0.2 percent in December, rising for a third month in a row. But economists said cuts to energy bills and the recent oil price rout were likely to keep inflation “close to zero” in the coming months. (http://bit.ly/2496RIt)

– India has warned Vodafone Group Plc it may seize the telecoms giant’s assets in the country if it does not pay a disputed 142 billion rupees ($2.07 billion) tax bill. Vodafone received a letter from the deputy commissioner of income tax in India earlier this month that warned of potential action in the event of non-payment. (http://bit.ly/2496Zrm)

Sky News

– Documents sent to shareholders disclose that the value of B-shares allocated to roughly 70 current and former Metro Bank executives will convert into ordinary shares worth just over 18 million pounds after market turmoil forced bosses to slash the price of the lender’s forthcoming listing. (http://bit.ly/2497aDg)

– French energy giant EDF will extend the life of four of its eight UK nuclear power plants – safeguarding 3,000 jobs in the process. Heysham 1 and Hartlepool will continue to generate power for an additional five years – up until 2024, while Heysham 2 and Torness will see their life extended by seven years to 2030. (http://bit.ly/2497hhX)

The Independent

– Ikea has been accused of avoiding up to 1 billion euros ($1.11 billion) in corporate taxes between 2009 and 2014, according to a report by Green Party ministers in the European Parliament. (http://ind.pn/2497wcN)


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What Hedge Funds Bought And Sold In Q4: The Full 13-F Summary

Yesterday was the last day for hedge funds to submit their Q4 13-F filings, and the biggest reactions this morning can be found in the stock of Kinder Morgan which rises 9% pre-mkt after Berkshire reported a new stake. Autodesk also gained 2% post-mkt yday after Lone Pine took a new position. Several funds boosted or reported new stakes in JD.com while Jana Partners reported a new stake in Valeant. Both Icahn and Einhorn trimmed their AAPL holdings.

Below is a summary courtesy of Bloomberg of 4Q equity holdings from Dec. 31 13-F filings by the most prominent hedge funds, with some of the new, added, cut and exited positions for each; some stakes may have previously been reported in separate filings.

ADAGE CAPITAL

  • Reports new stakes in SYF, IR, MMM, KLAC, FE
  • Boosts DOW, MSFT, HON, CVX, DAL
  • Cuts GE, PEP, UTX, MPWR, AXP
  • No longer shows D, RCII, ABY, RLGY, UGI

APPALOOSA MANAGEMENT

  • Reports new stakes ETP, KMI, ABY, PFE
  • Boosts GOOG, ALL, LUV, DAL, WHR
  • Cuts NXPI, GT, EXP, AAPL, EMN
  • No longer shows JBLU, TEX, USG, KBR, AXLL

BAUPOST GROUP

  • Reports new stakes in EMC
  • Boosts AR, PYPL, RUN, KLXI, BITI
  • Cuts FTR, KOS, NG
  • No longer shows AA, PXD, EBAY, AER, LOCK

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY

  • Reports new stakes in KMI
  • Boosts WFC, DE, AXTA
  • Cuts T, WBC
  • No longer shows CBI

BLUEMOUNTAIN

  • Reports new stakes in SLH, WTW, CLACU, CDE, TROX
  • Boosts NWSA, TERP, MGLN
  • Cuts VRX, TWC, TSO, EURN, CLNY
  • No longer shows BIIB, PXD, AXP, AYA

BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES

  • Reports new stakes in HFC, AKAM, INTU, BRK/B, ADBE
  • Boosts VMW, M, MAR, BCE, ADI
  • Cuts SYMC, KO, RL, EMN, CTL
  • No longer shows GOOGL, MON, AMAT, WFM, FDX

COATUE MANAGEMENT

  • Reports new stakes in VRX, GPRO, FIT, ETE, WMB
  • Boosts GOOG, MSFT, ATVI, JD, NFLX, EQIX, W
  • Cuts AVGO, EXPE, AKAM, AGN, HAIN, DDD, SSYS
  • No longer shows KHC, WBA, Z, ADSK, VIPS

CORVEX MANAGEMENT

  • Reports new stakes in GOOG, BAC, COMM, CMA, P
  • Boosts PFE, SIG, YUM
  • Cuts BEAV, AGN, TWX, PAH, FNF
  • No longer shows AET, TAP, APC, BUD, PRGO

DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE

  • Reports new stakes in RTN, NOC, GOOGL, PSTG, SYF
  • Boosts AMZN
  • Cuts FB, HDB, MSFT, CTRP
  • No longer shows WFC, WDAY, JD, ILMN, UA

ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT

  • Reports new stakes in CAB, CNP, XLE, RRTS
  • Boosts AGN, EMC, CTXS, VMW, PLCM
  • Cuts PRGO, FCB, CCL, FBIO
  • No longer shows CMCSA, FOX, APC, JNPR, SQM

EMINENCE CAPITAL

  • Reports new stakes in HOT, LQ, CAA, CCE, BERY
  • Boosts ADSK, GMCR, YHOO, YUM
  • Cuts PRT, GNC, FOSL, G, LNKD
  • No longer shows KORS, AIG, CTRP, CSOD, MCD

ETON PARK CAPITAL

  • Reports new stakes in EMC, AGN, TWC, GMCR, ADSK
  • Boosts CRTO
  • Cuts PRGO, ODP, ADBE, AER, CI
  • No longer shows WMB, BEAV, GOOG, SNN

FAIRHOLME CAPITAL

  • Boosts LE, DNOW, MRC, SRG
  • Cuts BAC, CNQ, LUK, IBM, AIG
  • No longer shows C, NOV

GATES FOUNDATION

•    Cuts BRK/B
•    No longer shows BP

GLENVIEW CAPITAL MGMT

•    Reports new stakes in CSC, TWC
•    Boosts HCA, CI, HUM, FMC, MON
•    Cuts CDNS, PVH, CYH, TMO, WRK
•    No longer shows ENDP, AGN, TER, DG, A

GREENLIGHT CAPITAL

•    Reports new stakes in M, AGR, MYL, AGN, DSW
•    Boosts TWX, KORS, IAC, AER, FOXA
•    Cuts AAPL, CBI, ON, ACM, SEMI
•    No longer shows MU, BK, SC, AMAT, KS

HIGHFIELDS CAPITAL MGMT

•    Reports new stakes in YHOO, AGN, KSU, BK, DIA
•    Boosts DD, MCD, ABBV, HOT, TRIP
•    Cuts BEN, CBS, IRM, MHFI
•    No longer shows APD, IBM, LLY, PG, QCOM

ICAHN ASSOCIATES

•    Boosts HTZ, LNG, FCX
•    Cuts AAPL, TGNA, GCI

ICONIQ CAPITAL

•    Reports new stakes in VXUS, QQQ, CVX
•    Boosts GLD, IWB, JD, VTI, XLE
•    Cuts IAU, PARR, VNQ, LLNW, TSLA
•    No longer shows XES, XOP, GDX, BP, RDS/A

JANA PARTNERS

•    Reports new stakes in PFE, AIG, VRX, CSRA
•    Boosts MSFT
•    Cuts QCOM, BAX, AGN, CSC, TWX
•    No longer shows HTZ, BKD, MAT, ZTS
•    NOTE: Jan. 27, Jana Is Short Royal Mail, Dixons Carphone, InterContinental

LAKEWOOD CAPITAL

•    Reports new stakes in QRVO, AMLP
•    Boosts AGN, CFG, WRK, HCA, TWC
•    Cuts CDW, JBLU, IM, SPR
•    No longer shows BABA, BLL, AAL
•    NOTE: Feb. 8, Bozza’s Lakewood Capital Shorting Adeptus, Dycom, Dean: ValueWalk

LANSDOWNE PARTNERS

•    Reports new stakes in RACE, CLVS, LIVN, SYF, MTCH
•    Boosts GOOGL, AAPL, V, AMZN, JPM
•    Cuts GS, WFC, DIS, NKE, FIT
•    No longer shows XLE, KW, IAC, SEMI

LONE PINE CAPITAL

•    Reports new stakes in NOC, ADSK, LULU, GOOGL, GOOG
•    Boosts DLTR, AMZN, MSFT, V, STZ
•    Cuts VRX, CHTR, JD, PCLN, MA
•    No longer shows AGN, DVA, SCHW, SBAC, MBLY

MARCATO CAPITAL

•    Reports new stakes in M, TPHS, HZN, BLDR
•    Boosts CBPX, VRTS
•    Cuts GT, BID, MDCA
•    No longer shows NCR, MIC, LEA, SGMS, JMG

MAVERICK CAPITAL

•    Reports new stakes in NWL, CHTR, UNH, HDS, KHC
•    Boosts ARRS, PFE, ADBE, WCN, YELP, PACB, KSU, SABR
•    Cuts AER, GOOG, BUD, PCLN, ARMK
•    No longer shows VRX, MTG, TMH, TWX, SYMC

MELVIN CAPITAL

•    Reports new stakes in DLTR, SIG, NKE, BABA, LVS
•    Boosts JD, DPZ, FB, ADBE, CTRP
•    Cuts AMZN, KR, LULU, EXPE, SWK
•    No longer shows EL, CASY, VFC, YUM, TJX

MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT

•    Reports new stakes in SYF, ITC, AGR, PEP, GMCR
•    Boosts MRK, KEY, AAPL, NEE, PNW
•    Cuts DOW, CMCSA, AMZN, SLB, AEE
•    No longer shows ILMN, WFC, RDC, APA, SKX

MOORE CAPITAL

•    Reports new stakes in CTRP, XOP, MSFT, RH, ICE
•    Boosts BAC, C, BABA, AMZN, FB
•    Cuts JPM, MGM, NRF, NSAM, TCO
•    No longer shows FXI, EAGLU, PACEU, GRSHU, BLVDU

OMEGA ADVISORS

•    Reports new stakes in FDC, EEM, MSFT, SYF, AET
•    Boosts AIG, NAVI, WBA, ASPS, LORL
•    Cuts PFE, TWX, TRGP, MSI, GPOR
•    No longer shows PCLN, VRX, SUNE, CI, LYB
•    NOTE: Nov. 16, Omega Sold Entire Valeant Stake, Reuters Says

PASSPORT CAPITAL

•    Reports new stakes in GE, SYT, MCD, LLY, RTN
•    Boosts MSFT, NKE, BMY, SBUX
•    Cuts DLTR, SRE, DAL, PFE
•    No longer shows SCTY, VIPS, NRG, RICE

PAULSON & CO.

•    Reports new stakes in LRCX, AKRX, PFE, BIIB, ABBV
•    Boosts MYL, TEVA, MNK, LIVN, VRX
•    Cuts GLD, TWC, HOT, AGN, TMUS
•    No longer shows HCA, CAM, MGM, WWAV

PERRY CORP.

•    Reports new stakes in HCA, SE, CPGX
•    Boosts TWX, AER, UAM
•    Cuts AIG, WMB, CYH, ETE, BLL
•    No longer shows ZTS, PRGO, CBS, INVA, DPM

POINT72 ASSET

•    Reports new stakes in AAP, GLW, CSRA, AMAT, PBF
•    Boosts NKE, SIG, MCD, DLTR, WHR
•    Cuts AMZN, LULU, MSFT, SBUX, PXD
•    No longer shows CMCSA, TMUS, JWN, FTR, XLU

POINTSTATE CAPITAL

•    Reports new stakes in AGN, HUM, HYG, JD, DOW
•    Boosts TEVA, TWC, CLVS, LNG, CFG
•    Cuts GOOGL, AYA, PXD, LYB, MDCO
•    No longer shows TCO, VRTX, TLRD, WBA, AET

SACHEM HEAD

•    Reports new stakes in ADSK, MYL
•    Boosts AGN, AKRX, TWC, FIS
•    Cuts CDK, PTC, ZTS
•    No longer shows APD, FOXA

SANDELL ASSET

•    Reports new stakes in ARG, YOKU, FCE/A, ABG, CIT
•    Boosts CVC, TVPT
•    Cuts BOBE, VSLR, SLH, VIAV, ALLY
•    No longer shows BKD, QCOM, WIN, DK, SUNE

SOROS FUND MGMT

•    Reports new stakes in SYF, HYG, CPGX, MPC, GOOGL
•    Boosts LVLT, EQT, LYB, MCD, DAL
•    Cuts YPF, AGN, FB, CIT, TWC
•    No longer shows VIPS, NEE, SLB, NRG, LUV

STARBOARD VALUE

•    Reports new stakes in NYRT, CI, LNCE
•    Boosts BAX, MEG, M
•    Cuts ODP, WRK, CW, ACM
•    No longer shows GIS, LXU, TSRA, AGN, MSGN

TEMASEK

•    Reports new stakes in SYF, JD, TOUR, MON, REGN
•    Boosts GILD, BMRN
•    Cuts Q, BABA
•    No longer shows HXL

TIGER GLOBAL

•    Reports new stakes in AAPL, PCLN, QSR, SQ
•    Boosts VIPS, JD, CHTR, TWC, SPLK
•    Cuts ATHM, ETSY, VDSI, BABA, MA
•    No longer shows KATE, EROS, IBM, HDP

THIRD POINT

•    Reports new stakes in CB, MS, AXTA
•    Boosts DOW, SJM, TWC
•    Cuts YUM, KHC, EBAY, CWEI, STZ
•    No longer shows TMUS, NXPI, IAC, XON

TRIAN FUND

•    Boosts MDLZ, PNR
•    Cuts DD, GE
•    No longer shows IR, CC

TUDOR INVESTMENT

•    Reports new stakes in CSRA, HPY, LH, KING, EEM
•    Boosts ULTI, ADP, CSC, EFX, IYR
•    Cuts NCR, WDAY, FB, SPLK, PCLN
•    No longer shows MRKT, SINA, GE, PG, ADS

VALUEACT

•    Cuts HAL
•    No longer shows AXP

VIKING GLOBAL
•    Reports new stakes in PCLN, CMG, ENDP, PFE, BIIB
•    Boosts TEVA, NFLX, PXD, QUNR, AVGO
•    Cuts WBA, MA, LYB, KSU, AET
•    No longer shows SEE, MHK, HLT, HOT, ILMN

WILLIAM STIRITZ

•    Cuts HLF


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S&P Futures Rise Above 1900, Europe Jumps After Gloomy Asian Session

It has been a morning session of two halves.

In Asia, the mood was somber, and stocks fell with the Shanghai Composite (+1.1%) outperforming on another late session binge-fest by the National Team, and the Nikkei 225 (-1.4%), Hang Seng -1%, Kospi -0.2%, ASX -0.6%, Sensex -0.4% and the South Korean Won all down following news of the biggest Chinese Yuan devaluation in five weeks.

 

The European session, on the other hand was a different matter and after the USDJPY slid as low as 113.35 at the European open, it then proceeded to soar 100 pips and push European stocks (Stoxx 600 +1.7%) and US equity futures up with it, with the ES trading above 1900 as of this posting, adding to the best 2-day rally in the S&P in five months.

Shares in Europe also rose as companies including Credit Agricole SA and Schneider Electric SE reported better-than-estimated results. 

Among the key corporate news, Glencore Plc pushed a gauge of commodity stocks higher, advancing 8.6 percent after the Swiss trader said it won new loan commitments from banks to replace an existing $8.45 billion revolving credit facility. Its bonds also gained. Total SA dropped 1.7 percent after a shareholder sold a stake at a discount. ABN Amro Group NV bucked the banking industry trend, sliding 2.2 percent after its quarterly profit missed analysts’ projections as regulatory costs rose.

Some observations were optimistic, such as this one by Justin Urquhart Stewart, co-founder of Seven Investment Management in London: “I’d love to think this is the start of a lasting rebound but it’s too early to tell. Any gains have been pretty fragile and short-lived lately, even though earnings haven’t been all that bad and economic figures have been quite supportive.”

Others less so, such as this UBS technical analyst note: “We see Europe starting our suggested multi-week corrective/volatile rebound into later 1Q/early 2Q before resuming its underlying bear trend into deeper summer on the back of the recent break down in small and mid-caps. After the undershooting in banks, we expect a bounce in the Euro Stoxx 50 to remain capped at 3050 to best case 3200. On the sector front, a bounce should be led by autos, chemicals, industry, energy and miners, whereas a rebound in financials should sooner or later lose momentum.”

But ultimately it all remains about oil, which after sliding to $29 yesterday after the disappointing summit between Russia and Saudi Arabia, has rebounded on hope that today’s follow up meeting between Iran, Iraq and Venezuela may provide something actionable. It won’t, as the following tweet from a WSJ correspondent indicates, and instead the stage for the fingerpoint is now set.

 

Focusing on regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks shrugged off Wall St. gains to trade negative with energy losses weighing bourses. Nikkei 225 (-1.4%) underperformed on JPY strength, while the biggest decline in machine orders in over a year also added to the gloom. ASX 200 (-0.6%) saw energy names heavily pressured after crude retreated back below the USD 30/bbl level, while Woodside Petroleum shares also dragged the sector lower following a 99% decline in profits. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp (+1.1%) fluctuated between gains and losses after an early upbeat tone following reports of increased funds for infrastructure spending and officials also discussing a reduction in bad loan provision ratios, was counter-balanced by a somewhat reserved PBoC liquidity operation. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw spillover selling from T-Notes where large corporate issuances and firm US stock momentum weighed on US paper while the BoJ’s presence in the market today was for a relatively modest amount. Japanese PM Abe adviser Honda says the BoJ may increase stimulus at the March meeting and that the tax hike should be delayed until 2019.

In Europe, European equities started the session off on the front-foot with a slew of earnings reports and a paring of yesterday’s losses enough to out-muscle underperformance in energy names amid the latest OPEC/Non-OPEC¬related headlines. Furthermore, financials have also been dealt a helping hand by stellar earnings from Credit Agricole (+11.1%) and elsewhere to the downside, utilities are seen softer in the wake of RWE suspending their dividend for ordinary shares. From a fixed income perspective, Bunds trade modestly higher with no real sustained direction as participants awaited supply from both the UK and Germany for much of the morning, which was technically uncovered when auctioned. Portugal spent the European morning wider to the German benchmark as has often been the case over the past few week. Elsewhere in the periphery, concerns continue to linger for Spain as to whether or not the nation would be able to obtain a definitive outcome if they were to hold a fresh round of elections.

In FX, much of the focus has been on GBP this morning, with the backdrop of the EU renegotiations added to by the UK employment report. The jobless rate was unchanged at 5.1% which caused and immediate hit on the Pound, led by Cable. Earlier in the day, we saw losses through 1.4250 limited to 1.4242, held up by some strong bids at these levels, which then formed the basis of a sharp turnaround as the rest of the numbers proved very healthy. Claims fell by a much larger than expected 14.8k and once digested, saw Cable taking out 1.4300 and pushing the GBP to session highs against the rest of its major counterparts. Elsewhere, early stock market jitters saw USD/JPY dipping below 113.50, but as sentiment eased, we saw a slow grind back to 114.00 and above, but the Asia highs ahead of 114.40 cap for now. Oil prices moving higher despite ongoing wrangling over the production freeze (Iran), and this has given CAD some relief to send the spot rate back towards 1.3800.

In commodities, energy markets traded relatively unchanged through most of the session as participants await further headlines regarding any success/breakdown in negotiations regarding a co-orindated production freeze. However, in the lead up to the beginning of the 1030GMT meeting between Qatar, Venezuela, Iraq and Iran WTI and Brent futures both saw a bid, with the former heading higher, towards the USD 30/bbl level, although with no fundamental catalyst immediately behind the move. In terms of metals markets, Gold traded higher overnight amid weakness in Asia-Pac stocks and a pull-back in the USD, however, prices have since retreated from their best levels alongside the upside seen in European equities.

* * *

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSqawk and Bloomberg

  • FX markets have seen USD/JPY and GBP/USD retrace earlier losses with both heading into US crossover seeing a bid, as participants shrug off mixed UK employment release and sentiment strengthens through the European morning
  • While Asian equities failed to benefit from the positive Wall St close, European equities have traded higher this morning, benefitting from stock specific news as well as an uptick in sentiment
  • Today’s highlight is the release of the FOMC Minutes, while participants will also be looking out for US housing starts, building permits, industrial production and API Crude Oil Inventories
  • Treasury yields little changed as European equities and oil rally during overnight trading; Fed minutes to Jan. 26-27 meeting to be released at 2pm ET.
  • The yuan posted the biggest two-day decline in more than a month as the central bank’s fixing for the currency tracked an overnight advance in the dollar and official media voiced concern that capital outflows will increase
  • China’s unprecedented jump in new loans at the start of 2016 is fueling concern that excessive credit growth is piling up risks in the nation’s financial system. The increase could pressure the country’s credit rating, S&P said Tuesday
  • China is stepping up support for the economy by ramping up spending and considering new measures to boost bank lending. The nation’s chief planning agency is making more money available to local governments
  • The BOJ should act preemptively to change the deflationary mindset in Japan and this action could come as soon as March, said Etsuro Honda, an adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
  • Wall Street firms are readying themselves for a provision of the 2010 Dodd-Frank law that takes effect in December that forces banks to keep a stake in the commercial-property loans they package into securities and sell off to investors
  • Syria’s five-year war has turned into a tangled web of proxy conflicts between global and regional powers, with a growing risk that some of them could clash directly. Right now the most dangerous flashpoint is between Russia and NATO member Turkey
  • Apple rejected a court order to help the Justice Department unlock an iPhone used by one of the shooters in a terrorist attack in California, accusing the U.S. government of “overreach” that will set a dangerous precedent
  • $23.425b IG corporates priced yesterday (YTD volume $206b) and $350m priced yesterday (YTD volume $9.625b)
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields little changed; European stocks higher, Asian markets drop; U.S. equity-index futures higher. Crude oil, copper and gold rally

US Event Calendar

  • 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 12 (prior 9.3%)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Jan., est 1.173m (prior 1.149m)
    • Housing Starts m/m Jan., est. 2.0% (prior -2.5%)
    • Building Permits, Jan., est. 1.2m (prior 1.232m, revised 1.204m)
    • Building Permits m/m, Jan., est. -0.3% (prior -3.9%, revised 6.1%)
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand m/m, Jan., est. -0.2% (prior -0.2%)
    • PPI Ex Food and Energy m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.1%, revised 0.2%)
    • PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
    • PPI Final Demand y/y, Jan., est. -0.6% (prior -1%)
    • PPI Ex Food and Energy y/y, Jan., est. 0.4% (prior 0.3%)
    • PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade y/y, Jan. (prior 0.3%)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production m/m, Jan., est. 0.4% (prior -0.4%)
    • Capacity Utilization, Jan., est. 76.7% (prior 76.5%)
    • Manufacturing (SIC) Production, Jan., est. 0.2% (prior -0.1%)
  • TBA: Consumer Price Index benchmark revisions
  • TBA: Mortgage Delinquencies, 4Q (prior 4.99%)
  • Mortgage Foreclosures, 4Q (prior 1.88%)

Central Banks

  • 2:00pm: FOMC Minutes, Jan. 26-27
  • 7:30pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in St. Louis

 

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

While the rally in Europe succumbed to a bit of fatigue yesterday with the Stoxx 600 closing with -0.43% after a day of whippy price action, the US reopened after Monday’s holiday with a fairly positive tone to build on the momentum generated from the end of last week, culminating with the S&P 500 closing with a +1.65% gain. Much of the focus however was on oil markets and specifically the meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The initial headlines appeared positive and saw WTI spike as high as $31.50/bbl before disappointment set in that actually there was little fundamental change from the meeting and instead realization set in that talks had moved from cuts to a freeze in production. WTI closed -1.36% on the day at $29.04/bbl.

In terms of the details, it emerged that Saudi Arabia and Russia, along with Venezuela and Qatar had agreed to freeze current production at January levels. As our Commodity strategy colleagues highlighted yesterday in their note, the Russia Oil Ministry stated that this freeze would only take effect if other producers participate, without specifying how many or which countries would be required to join the agreement. While a credible agreement to hold production flat by all OPEC members at the January level would be quite meaningful in tightening forward expectations of market balance, a lot of this would hinge on the need for the inclusion of Iran and Iraq. Talks are expected to continue in Tehran today but expectation levels are low given that Iran has publicly stated that it will restore production to pre-sanctions levels regardless of price.

A silver lining is that the talks are overall a positive step forward for sentiment in advance of the scheduled June OPEC meeting. Clearly though there is the need for negotiations to progress to achieve any sort of coordinated agreement in production cuts between OPEC and non-OPEC members however.

Glancing at our screens this morning it appears that weakness in energy names following the news yesterday is to blame for a broadly weaker start in Asia this morning. Bourses in Japan in particular have seen the greatest losses with the Nikkei currently -1.88%. Elsewhere the Hang Seng (-0.50%), Kospi (-0.27%) and ASX (-0.57%) are also in the red as we go to print, while Chinese bourses (Shanghai Comp +0.31%) have just nudged back into positive territory. Oil markets are actually about half a percent firmer while US equity index futures are unchanged.

Away from the focus on Oil yesterday there was also some data and Fedspeak for us to digest. With regards to the former first of all there was a notable downturn in this month’s German ZEW survey. The current situations index plunged 7.4pts to a below-market 52.3 (vs. 55.0 expected) which is the lowest in 12 months and clearly a reflection of the European banks, global growth and China woes which have played their part this year. The expectations survey fared little better, tumbling 9.2pts to 1.0 (vs. 0 expected). In the UK meanwhile the January CPI print was lower than expected at -0.8% mom (vs. -0.7% expected). That said the YoY rate did nudge up one-tenth to +0.3% with the core sitting at +1.2%. In the US we saw the February Empire manufacturing survey continue to remain weak this month at -16.6 (vs. -10.0) despite improving nearly 3pts from January. Meanwhile the NAHB housing market index declined 3pts to 58 which came as a slight surprise with consensus expectations having been at 60, although it still remains close to its cyclical high.

In terms of the Fedspeak, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (non-voter) provided a fairly cautious overview of the US economy. Harker opined that ‘it might prove prudent to wait until the inflation data are stronger before we undertake a second rate hike’ and that ‘I am approaching near-term policy a bit more cautiously than I did a few months ago’. Harker did highlight that his overall view of the US economy is upbeat, but that risks to his outlook are very much tilted to the downside. New Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also made some interesting comments yesterday. The former US Treasury official was fairly up front with his views on US Banks, saying that ‘the biggest banks are still too big to fail and continue to pose a significant risk to our economy’. He remarked that ‘now is the right time for Congress to consider going further than Dodd-Frank with bold, transformational solutions to solve this problem once and for all’.

Recapping the rest of the price action yesterday, Gold extended its move lower for a third day, finishing -0.73% at $1200. US Treasury yields were a smidgen higher with the benchmark 10y in particular up 2.4bps to 1.773%. European credit indices and financials in particular were a touch wider, while US indices finished 1bp tighter although the real news was in the primary market with the new issue market in the US reopening with a bang. Indeed over $23bn of deals were said to have been raised yesterday in the second busiest day of the year, led by a bumper nine-part $12bn deal for Apple while IBM and Toyota Motor Corp were also out with sizeable deals of their own. Despite the volatility in credit markets of late, clearly demand hasn’t waned too much with the order book for Apple in particular said to have reached $28bn.

Taking a look at today’s calendar now, the only data of note in the European session this morning will again come from the UK where we get the latest employment report where focus will be on the December unemployment and weekly earnings prints in particular. This afternoon in the US we’ll see the January housing starts and building permits data. Last month’s PPI print will also be worth keeping an eye on before we get the January IP report where expectations are currently running for +0.4% mom. Capacity utilization and manufacturing production data is also due before we get the January FOMC minutes this evening (7pm GMT) although as we’ve since heard from Fed Chair Yellen at her semi-annual testimony so the minutes will now look a little outdated. There’s no Fedspeak due today while earnings wise we’ve got 13 S&P 500 companies set to report.


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