Mapping Out Housing Markets With Largest Federal Worker Exposure

Mapping Out Housing Markets With Largest Federal Worker Exposure

It’s beginning to look a lot like 2008—at least for home builders,” Nick Gerli, CEO and founder of real estate analytics firm Reventure Consulting, wrote on X earlier this week, referring to the buildup in new housing inventory. Gerli’s comment came just a day before housing data on Tuesday showed that new home supply had surged to an 18-year high.

Meanwhile…

Shifting the focus to Mid-Atlantic housing markets with the highest exposure to federal workers, Gerli identified the top metro areas with a federal worker concentration three to five times higher than average. 

Topping the list is Lexington, Maryland, where 12.5% of all workers—roughly 13,200—are employed in federal government jobs. It’s followed by Washington, D.C., with 266,400 federal jobs, accounting for about 9.4% of all employment, and Baltimore, Maryland, with 77,500 federal jobs, or roughly 5.5% of the workforce.

Gerli asked, “Will government layoffs negatively impact home prices in these markets?” 

The average metro area has about 1.4% of the workforce in Federal Jobs. So these markets are significantly higher. Lots of military towns. And of course D.C./Virginia/Maryland,” the founder and also analyst of Reventure said. 

Doge-fueled layoffs will have the most impact across the Mid-Atlantic region—particularly in Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Maryland. There are estimates that DOGE has terminated 200,000 federal workers over the last two months, with cuts being announced weekly. 

Trimming the bloated federal government of waste and fraud will come at a cost, and that’s likely an economic downturn for the D.C. swamp

The latest data from Bright MLS, a multiple listing service for the Atlantic area, reported weekly data through March 23, showing that active listings are piling up. 

Active listings in D.C. are surging, well above trends seen in the last several years for this time of year, as the spring selling season is underway. 

Cracks in the housing market—particularly in new housing supply—warrant close monitoring. Equally important is keeping an eye on housing markets with high exposure to federal workers being cut by DOGE. The pain train is coming for the swamp.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/27/2025 – 07:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Jzy8QVK Tyler Durden

Goldman Weighs In On Accelerated Copper Import Tariff Timeline 

Goldman Weighs In On Accelerated Copper Import Tariff Timeline 

President Trump’s national security probe under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, launched in February to review raw copper, refined copper, copper concentrates, copper alloys, scrap copper, and other copper derivatives imported into the U.S, directed the Commerce Department to deliver tariff recommendations to the White House within 270 days. That review process has likely been accelerated, as a new report suggests U.S. copper imports could be enacted in the near-term. 

Sources told Bloomberg that the Trump administration is moving quickly with its review of copper import tariffs and will likely act well before the 270-day deadline, which was expected between September and November. The new timeline has now shifted to mid-May.

Commenting on the shortened timeline, Goldman’s Eoin Dinsmore, Aurelia Waltham, and others provided clients with a critical Q&A addressing physical market flows and pricing across various exchanges:

What is the impact on physical market flows?

Greater certainty on copper tariffs means COMEX is likely to trade at a higher premium to LME, but there is less time to ship metal to the U.S. Assuming tariffs are implemented in May, we think shipments to the U.S. will likely be fast tracked, with net imports in April potentially jumping 200kt[1] above the standard 60-70kt/month, albeit with upside risk. However, with the possibility of earlier tariff implementation, we now expect U.S. stocks to decline by 30-40kt/month from mid-to-late Q2 onwards. Thus, we avoid a stock glut in the U.S. in Q3 2025, when we expect global copper market tightness to be most pronounced.

What is the impact on the LME price?

We see stranded stocks at the low-end of our range – a 200kt increase in U.S. stocks, and a possible 60kt loss of refined production from lower U.S. exports of copper concentrates and scrap. But by Q3, when we forecast the bulk of the 2025 annual global deficit will occur, U.S. stocks should have started to normalize. Thus, the expected H2 crunch should be less pronounced, which reduces upside risk to our LME price forecast. We hold to our 3/6/12 Month LME price forecasts of $9,600/t, $10,000/t and $10,700/t, and flag near-term downside risk from the trade policy update on April 2nd.

Will COMEX now price the full 25% tariff over the LME?

Factoring in uncertainty on the tariff level and high U.S. inventories, we think an implied tariff of 20% should be the cap in the near-term. This has also been a level regularly cited as a good exit point in numerous client meetings.

Will Sep-Dec 2025 spreads tighten?

We close the trade recommendation to go long Sep-Dec 2025 timespreads. Despite Q3 2025 being the key point for global copper market tightness, the spread will no longer need to rise to a level to halt exports to the U.S. Based on our Q3 ex-US reported inventories forecast, the likely backwardation would be only $0-60/t, close to current levels.

The analysts see global copper markets shifting into a deficit in 2Q25.

U.S. copper inventories should begin declining after tariffs are enacted.

Analysts expect the COMEX and LME spread to be capped soon. 

The Bloomberg report sent copper prices on Comex up 3% to a record $5.37 per pound. Meanwhile, the benchmark price on the London Metal Exchange fell 2% to $9,893 per ton, widening the gap between the two contracts to about $1,700 per ton

“The news today is this story of Copper tariffs coming sooner than possibly expected… LME/CMX arb at $1750-1800 in July (+$300 to start today) or 18% Tarrff expected,” Goldman analyst James McGeoch told clients earlier. 

McGeoch offered some thoughts about today’s news and copper trading:

  • The durability of this move is significantly greater than 2024. Balances are tight, there is a fundamental driver and a technical ampifier (that technical is also fundamental in that the U.S. is short metal, fundamentally they want to change that).

  • As price traded back to $10k last night, the CMX premium now well above 15%, as it trades through record highs to 529 (+1.5%), traders (with vested interests) talk about price to $12k

  • Remember that whilst metal is being stacked in the U.S., we had last week the China SRB suggest it was also looking to build stocks of critical minerals: cobalt, copper, nickel, and lithium  link. So Apparent demand (at either end, U.S. and China) is amplifying the effect of real demand (electrification, Chinese fiscal put, German infra plan), and tightening the balances further

  • Trading observation in discussion Monday – Positioning has not baked the above in. Regional contract differentiation leaves those with the global view on sideline (also too much idiosyncratic risk they lack edge to play). Point is the big rally lacks a big uptick in spec interest/positioning. The copper fwds have a lot to go, the incentives not in the curve and physical premiums doubled last week (first sign they are being impacted). The work now is dissecting physical location premiums and how the moves in inventory can impact near term demand. As we rally to $10k we may see some producing selling and as such spreads can remain bid.

  • CTA’s are as long as I can recall, the GS model suggests close to $18bn (historical max 19.6bn). This is where all the length is. CFTC weekly data showed a fairly meh inc for managed money accts (CME +9 to 22k lots, LME +2 to 63k)

And we ask: What happens to global copper production with prices at record highs?

Now that tariffs are likely to be imposed sooner, importers will have significantly less time to rush copper shipments into the U.S.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/27/2025 – 06:55

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WTF Headline Of The Day: Convicted Pakistani Pedo Avoids Deportation From UK Because He’s An Alcoholic

WTF Headline Of The Day: Convicted Pakistani Pedo Avoids Deportation From UK Because He’s An Alcoholic

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A convicted pedophile has escaped deportation from the UK to his native country of Pakistan after a judge ruled that he would face “inhuman or degrading treatment” there for being an alcoholic.

Yes, really.

The man was released from prison after serving sentences for sex offences, but was subsequently charged again after assaulting a teenage girl.

The Home Office issued a deportation order, however, the guy successfully appealed it using the European Convention on Human Rights whilst serving another one year sentence in prison.

His legal representatives argued that without proper treatment for his addiction in Pakistan, his “uncontrollable” alcoholism could worsen and potentially lead to “further suffering.”

Respondents on X expressed disbelief at the UK justice system, with many pointing out that there are people currently serving longer prison sentences for spicy tweets.

This case follows similar incidents, including one just last month where another Pakistani pedo was permitted to remain in the UK with a judge ruling that deportation would be “unduly harsh” owing to the fact that his family in Pakistan took a “dim view” of his crimes.

Conservative MP Sir Alec Shelbrooke urged that “The Government needs to stop dangerous criminals being allowed to stay in this country.”

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/27/2025 – 06:30

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Wall Street Bonus Pool Hits Record On Capital Market Rebound

Wall Street Bonus Pool Hits Record On Capital Market Rebound

Average Wall Street bonuses have hit a new record high as capital markets—frozen over the past several years—began thawing in 2024, with further improvement expected this year.

A new report released by the office of New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli shows that Wall Street’s bonus season, which runs through March, hit a record $47.5 billion—up 34% from previous year—with the average bonus payout soaring to a fresh record high of $244,700, a 31.5% jump from the previous year. 

“The record-high bonus pool reflects Wall Street’s very strong performance in 2024,” DiNapoli wrote in a report. 

The big bonus payouts follow capital market improvements last year. 

Dealogic data shows that companies going public raised $39.32 billion in 2024, more than in 2022 and 2023, but below the Covid mania peak in 2021. This year, capital markets are expected to receive further tailwinds from President Trump’s relaxed regulations and potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. 

“Deregulation will make it easier for earlier-stage companies to gain traction and grow in their specific business markets,” Ross Carmel, a partner at IPO-focused law firm Sichenzia Ross Ference Carmel, told Investopedia at the start of the year.

Carmel said, “If they trade well post-IPO, I expect other mature companies will follow suit and go public in 2025.” 

Returning to the comptroller’s report, he explained: “This financial-market strength is good news for New York’s economy and our fiscal position, which relies on the tax revenue it generates.” 

“However, increasing uncertainty in the economy amid significant federal policy changes may dampen the outlook for parts of the securities industry in 2025,” he warned.

DiNapoli pointed out that Wall Street accounts for 19% of taxes collected by NY State and 7% by NYC. These bonuses are expected to generate $600 in revenue for the state and $275 million for the city. 

DiNapoli added that Wall Street securities employment topped 201,500 workers last year, the highest annual level in three decades, exceeding the previous peak in the Dot Com mania. NYC’s share of securities industry jobs nationally has slid to 18% from 33% in 1990 as Wall Street firms moved to Florida, Texas, and other Red States to escape violent crime and taxes in NYC. 

Earlier this month, NYSE Group President Lynn Martin told Bloomberg at the Invest conference in New York that first-time share sales could hit $50 billion: “We’re still gearing up for an active second quarter from an IPO perspective which, depending on how those deals go, we think will inform the way the rest of the year will progress.” 

Here’s the IPO pipeline… 

The only way capital market improvement can be derailed and bonuses stagnate is if market volatility remains elevated and interest rates rise. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/27/2025 – 05:45

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US Intel Report Blasts Jolani’s Forces For ‘Violence, Instability’ In Syria

US Intel Report Blasts Jolani’s Forces For ‘Violence, Instability’ In Syria

Via The Cradle

The US Department of National Intelligence acknowledged in its Annual Threat Assessment of 2025 that Syrian government forces were responsible for the massacres committed against minorities on Syria’s coast earlier this month

“The fall of president Bashar al-Assad’s regime at the hands of opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – a group formerly associated with Al-Qaeda – has created conditions for extended instability in Syria and could contribute to a resurgence of ISIS and other Islamist terror groups,” the report noted, adding that “HTS-led interim government forces, along with elements of Hurras al-Din and other jihadist groups, engaged in violence and extrajudicial killings in northwestern Syria in early March 2025 primarily targeting religious minorities that resulted in the death of more than 1,000 people, including Alawite and Christian civilians.”

The report went on to say that “some remaining jihadist groups refuse to merge into the HTS Ministry of Defense, and ISIS has already signaled opposition to HTS’s call for democracy and is plotting attacks to undermine its governance.”

It also highlights that Syrian transitional president Ahmad al-Sharaa, who headed HTS and its precursor group the Nusra Front, “claims to be willing to work with Syria’s array of ethno-sectarian groups to develop an inclusive governance model.” Yet, these groups are skeptical of his intentions, therefore “protracted negotiations could devolve into violence.”

The massacres took place in early March in Syria’s coastal cities and surrounding towns and villages after an armed uprising launched by militants affiliated with Syria’s former army. 

During a widescale security operation to quell the uprising, the Syrian Military Operations Department – consisting of numerous extremist factions who have been incorporated into the country’s new army – carried out a massive campaign of executions.

Militants went door to door killing civilians, including women and children. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), at least 1,500 people were killed, most of them Alawites. 

Syrian authorities pledged to open an investigation into the massacres. Extrajudicial killings carried out by government forces have continued, however. 

SOHR reported last week that 72 people were killed in a period of 24 hours by “armed groups affiliated with the General Security and Syrian military factions” in several areas of Syria. Three European envoys warned Syrian authorities during a meeting in Damascus earlier this month that international support for the country would depend on the government “cracking down” on extremist elements, according to Reuters.  

The abuses that have taken place in recent days are truly intolerable, and those responsible must be identified and condemned. There is no blank check for the new authorities,” a French Foreign Ministry spokesman told the outlet when asked about the message delivered by the European envoys in Damascus. 

“We asked for accountability. The punishment should go on those who committed the massacres. The security forces need to be cleaned up,” one of the envoys was cited as saying. 

Syria’s security and military forces are dominated by members of HTS (formerly Al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria) and fighters from what was known as the Syrian National Army (SNA) – a Turkish proxy formed in 2017.

The SNA groups, which were incorporated into the Syrian army and security apparatus, are known to have scores of ex-ISIS fighters and commanders within their ranks. 

After the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government last year, the US swiftly removed a $10 million bounty on Sharaa, who was previously a member of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), the group which turned into ISIS. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/27/2025 – 05:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/0RcUorj Tyler Durden

Crypto Fund Manager: This Is The ‘Single Largest Arbitrage In Human History’

Crypto Fund Manager: This Is The ‘Single Largest Arbitrage In Human History’

Investors from both traditional finance and the crypto world are increasingly aligning on the view that stablecoins represent one of the most significant business opportunities in a generation.

Such is the belief of Kyle Samani, Managing Partner of Multicoin Capital, who recently said that stablecoins—a form of crypto pegged to fiat like the U.S. dollar—will likely turn out to be “the single largest arbitrage in human history.”

“There’s 8 billion people on the planet. If you could go to each of those eight billion people and ask them, you can denominate your wealth in any asset—gold, Apple stock, S&P 500, euros, yen, whatever you want—my suspicion is if you went and asked everyone in the world and they could answer the question without fear of political persecution, I suspect five to seven billion of them would say U.S. dollars,” Samani said during a recent panel discussion at Digital Asset Summit 2025 in New York City.

It’s like probably like the single largest like arbitrage ever in human history is to just get those people what they want,” the crypto investor and venture capital added. ”If you think that’s what they want, then give it to them. And crypto rails are going to be the mechanism by which you do so, and so I think there’s a massive opportunity to get stablecoins in the hands of billions of people.” 

Stablecoins are experiencing rapid growth due to their unique ability to combine the stability of traditional fiat currencies with the efficiency and accessibility of blockchain technology. Unlike volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, stablecoins are pegged to assets such as the U.S. dollar, offering a reliable store of value that appeals to both retail and institutional investors.

Their use cases are vast and expanding: they enable fast, low-cost cross-border payments, bypassing the inefficiencies of traditional banking systems; they serve as a bridge between fiat and crypto markets, facilitating seamless trading on exchanges; and they power decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, where users can lend, borrow, or earn interest without intermediaries. Additionally, stablecoins are increasingly adopted in real-world applications, such as remittances, micropayments, and even as a hedge against inflation in countries with unstable currencies, driving their meteoric rise as a cornerstone of the evolving financial landscape.

The growth in stablecoins use of has been explosive in recent years.

Onchain data highlight a remarkable rise in Ethereum’s stablecoin supply, peaking at a record-breaking $132.4 billion. Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) lead the pack, forming the lion’s share of the stablecoin volume on this blockchain.

As of March 24, 2025, USDT on Ethereum surpassed $75 billion, with USDC trailing at just above $39 billion. Additional stablecoins like USDe, USDS, DAI, FDUSD, and PYUSD contributed $5.39 billion, $4.49 billion, $2.95 billion, $2.07 billion, and $714.23 million, respectively, to the total stablecoin pool on Ethereum.

This figure accounts for over half of the broader stablecoin market cap, which has soared to roughly $230 billion by March 2025.

In another feat for the stablecoin space, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino recently revealed the company purchased more U.S. treasuries than Canada, retaining $33.1 billion in U.S. government debt.

Last week, the Senate Banking Committee approved the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act of 2025, also known as the “GENIUS Act,” with a bipartisan vote of 18-6, advancing it out of committee. President Donald Trump has voiced his intent to sign payment stablecoin legislation into law this year. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/27/2025 – 04:15

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TotalEnergies CEO Not Ruling Out Return Of Nord Stream Gas Pipelines

TotalEnergies CEO Not Ruling Out Return Of Nord Stream Gas Pipelines

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

The mothballed Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia to Germany may return to service at some point as Europe’s industry would need some Russian gas to stay competitive, TotalEnergies’ chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said on Wednesday.

“I would not be surprised if two out of the four (came) back to stream, not four out of the four,” Patrick Pouyanne said at an industry event in Germany’s capital city, Berlin, as carried by Reuters.

“There is no way to be competitive against Russian gas with LNG coming from wherever it is,” the executive added.

Gas leaks in Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea were discovered at the end of September 2022.

Nord Stream 2 was never put into operation after Germany axed the certification process following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia, for its part, shut down Nord Stream 1 indefinitely in early September of 2022, claiming an inability to repair gas turbines because of the Western sanctions.

But speculation has intensified in recent weeks that a revival of the pipelines could be a part of a deal for the end of the war in Ukraine.

Earlier this month, Germany’s outgoing economy and energy minister Robert Habeck said that ideas to resurrect the Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia to Germany are the “wrong direction of discussion”.

“The Ukrainians are still under the aggression of Russia. So I think talking about the potential of Nord Stream 2 or Nord Stream 1, if it’s going to be repaired, is completely the wrong direction of discussion,” Habeck said.

In response to reports about a resurrection of the pipelines, Germany’s Economy Ministry early this month said that it is neither willing nor planning to discuss a restart to the pipeline.

Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, for his part, said, “The right place for Nord Stream 2 is at the bottom of the sea, in pieces, not on the EU’s energy market.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/27/2025 – 03:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/gIebQJj Tyler Durden

Five Things To Know As BYD’s 5-Minute EV Chargers Juice Up Next Week

Five Things To Know As BYD’s 5-Minute EV Chargers Juice Up Next Week

Less than two weeks after China’s BYD unveiled game-changing EV charging technology capable of delivering 1,000 kW fast charges and adding 250 miles of range in just five minutes, BloombergNEF analysts published a note Wednesday titled “Five Things to Know About BYD’s Five-Minute Charging.”

BloombergNEF EV analyst Ash Wang told clients that BYD’s 1,000 kW chargers are “as fast as filling a tank with gasoline at the pump, and could be a game changer for electric vehicle adoption.” 

Wang outlined five of the most critical things to know about the fast-charging advancement:

1. BYD blew competition out of the water with 1,000 kilowatts charging

BYD’s newest Han L and Tang L electric vehicles will be capable of adding 250 miles of range in just five minutes. That’s twice as fast as the best fast-charging vehicles in the market today, such as the Xiaomi SU7 Max, which can do 220 km in five minutes, and the Lucid Air which can do 187 km in the same time (Figure 1).

The vehicles will be available from Spring 2025, starting at around 270,000 yuan ($37,320) and will have peak charging power of 1,000 kilowatts. This is four times more than that of Tesla’s Model Y and even twice that of the Tesla Cybertruck that announced peak charger power of 500 kW.

Charging power (kilowatts or kW) is determined by voltage and current. Having high voltage architecture — BYD has a 1,000-volt platform — enables faster charging.

At this price, these vehicles pose a big threat to other automakers. It may take some time for the vehicles to arrive in Europe and North America, though, giving those regions some breathing space.

The advancement could undermine the case for next generation solid-state batteries. Toyota’s plans to bring that technology in mass production by 2025 now look slightly irrelevant. Honda and Nissan have also been working on solid-state batteries. The case for battery swapping may also stand diluted. While NIO’s latest system changes a battery slightly faster — in three minutes — it requires extra capital for the spare batteries in the swapping systems.

2. How does it work and is it real?

BYD’s new vehicles will be built on its new Super e-Platform 3.0, which has a 1,000-volt architecture. The high voltage, BYD’s proprietary “Flash Charging Battery” are key enablers of five-minute charging.

For context, most EVs use a 400-volt architecture. At higher voltages the required current for fast- charging is reduced. This is advantageous as the current is a driver of heat. There are a spate of models that have high voltages though, and BloombergNEF expects it will become popular across price points.

For example, Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 came to market with an 800-volt architecture in 2021, Xpeng’s 800-volt G6 came to market in 2023, and the new BMW Neue Klasse vehicles due in late 2025 will also have voltages of 800V. BYD’s ability to deliver faster charging than the competition and price below $40,000 could be pivotal (Figure 2, Figure 3).

BYD’s 1,000V architecture still manages currents of 1,000 amps, which is enabled through a mix of innovations in the battery pack, electrical system, and thermal management. All are aided by the company’s vertical integration strategy.

The battery technology is interesting because it is an evolution of the currently used lithium-iron- phosphate (LFP) chemistry. It is one of the cheapest cathode chemistries on the market, and it is the same chemistry CATL’s fastest charging Shenxing battery uses. It can charge 400km in 10 minutes rather than 5 minutes. The exact upgrades that will be made to BYD’s battery and its anode are currently unclear.

BYD has also upgraded the thermal management system around the battery cells and motors. In- house developed silicon carbide (SiC) chips, with ratings of up to 1,500 volts, supersede the performance of traditional silicon chips.

Will the vehicle actually charge at 1,000kW?

The video released on launch suggests it is possible. It would be a risk for BYD to announce they were going to be able to do it on vehicles coming out in two months, only for it not to materialize. Secondly, it’s important to understand that this performance is only under specific conditions.

The vehicle is only likely to achieve 1,000kW charging for a short period of time at low states of battery charge, so when drivers turn up with 40% charge they may not achieve these rates. Further, to achieve 1,000kW charging, it seems the vehicles need to use “dual-gun” charging, which is two 500 kW connectors used simultaneously. BYD has previously demonstrated the dual-gun charging on a Denza model (Figure 4).

3. Risks

Managing the heat and stress generated at such high currents is complex and could increase the risk of failure and warranty costs.

This has already been an issue in the EV industry. In February 2025, Samsung SDI recalled up to 180,196 high voltage battery packs, and in 2021, LG and GM agreed on a $1.9 billion deal to recoup recall costs due to battery issues on the Bolt.

Additionally, delivering 1,000 kW could decrease efficiency and therefore make charging more expensive.

4. BYD to expand charging infrastructure

BYD plans to install 4,000 “megawatt flash charging” stations in China. The company already operates 11,000 charge points in a joint venture with Shell, so BYD has some experience in the market. Tesla, by comparison, had over 12,000 Supercharger stalls across 2,000 stations in China by January 2025.

The impact of BYD’s rollout in a country the size of China may be limited, as there are already 3.6 million public chargers in the country, of which BloombergNEF estimates about 1.2 million are between 100kW and 400kW. I

t remains unclear who will own and operate BYD’s charging network, and whether it will open access to other brands. BYD will need other operators in the market, such as TGood and Starcharge, to take up the technology for it to be widely available.

BYD stations will also incorporate a battery pack of 250kWh to alleviate pressure on local grids. Incorporation of storage has long been touted with chargers but has so far been limited. This could be the catalyst for wider adoption. The rollout of megawatt-class chargers could face limitations outside China due to grid constraints.

5. Charging speed isn’t the only battle

Automakers are competing on other technologies like advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). Brands are attempting to stand out with more sophisticated products than their rivals.

BYD plans to incorporate its ADAS, called “God’s Eye” into its budget models. BYD’s Seagull hatchback is equipped with God’s Eye, and its starting price is under $10,000. In comparison, Tesla charges $8,000 for its full self-driving (FSD) software package, which is at the same autonomy level as BYD’s God’s Eye self-driving system (Figure 5).

The rollout of BYD’s 1,000 kW ultra-fast chargers could begin as soon as April—less than one week away—according to a report by CNEVPost. BYD’s general brand and public relations manager confirmed that 4,000 of these chargers would be installed in the coming months. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/27/2025 – 02:45

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Greenland’s Decades-Long Importance To The US

Greenland’s Decades-Long Importance To The US

Authored by Mark Hendrickson via The Epoch Times,

During my lifetime, dating back to the middle of the 20th century, Greenland was off the radar screen of most Americans. 

If Americans knew anything at all about Greenland, it was that it was the answer to the trivia question, “What is the world’s largest island?”

In the last several decades, the climate-alarmist crowd repeatedly issued dire warnings that global sea levels would increase dangerously due to Greenland’s glaciers and vast ice cover melting. 

Alas for the alarmists, Greenland’s famous Petermann Glacier has been adding ice for the past dozen years, growing nearly 10 miles in length from 2012 to 2024. Indeed, for the past dozen years, ice loss in Greenland has shrunk overall by two-thirds, amounting to five-thousandths of 1 percent of the total ice cover—not nearly enough to alter the long-term trend of global sea levels rising at a rate of 1.2 inches per decade.

In 2025, however, Greenland is suddenly big news. President Donald Trump, citing Greenland’s strategic location as vital to U.S. and international security along with the island’s largely untapped mineral wealth, has talked openly about the United States annexing the island, even suggesting the possibility of using force.

While we may shudder at Trump’s indelicate suggestion of a forcible takeover of a self-governing Danish protectorate with a population of only 57,000 people, he is completely correct that Greenland is strategically important, and has been for a long time. I learned this back in the mid-1950s.

Here I need to veer into a largely forgotten chapter in the history of the Cold War. In the 1950s, with the development of nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the United States sought to devise ways to defend against that Soviet threat. Defense tactics ranged from elementary schools conducting drills that had us kids fold ourselves into pathetic little balls of flesh hiding underneath our classroom desks to the construction of the Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line—a string of dozens of radar installations at the northern extreme of the North American continent and stretching eastward into Greenland.

While it might have been counterintuitive to those of us looking at flat maps of the world and thinking that the Soviets would fire their ICBMs at us across the Atlantic, the geographic reality of our globe is that the shortest distance from Russian nuclear launchpads to targets in the United States was and is over the polar region and the Arctic Ocean. The DEW Line radars were meant to give us sufficient time to launch a counter-attack and (hopefully) to intercept at least some of the incoming missiles.

I had an inside glimpse at the DEW Line. “Pop,” the uncle who provided a home for my widowed mother and me, had superb engineering and construction skills. He worked for Michigan Bell, which was part of the Bell System that was the major contractor working with the Department of Defense to build the DEW Line.

Long story short about Pop: Despite having served his country with three years of submarine duty in the U.S. Navy in the mid-1920s, staying in the reserves from then until World War II, and serving five years on active duty in that war (four of them on the aircraft carrier Essex in the Pacific) Pop, now in his 50s, was not done serving his country in extreme conditions. He volunteered (which really ticked off my aunt!) to serve in the Arctic, and was appointed assistant superintendent in charge of construction. His immediate superior took care of the book work back home, while Pop lived in the Arctic for two years (1955–1957) and personally oversaw the building of every one of those radar installations.

Working on the DEW Line wasn’t for the faint-hearted. Pop often worked two 10-hour shifts on the same calendar day. There were bucket baths in 30-degree below-zero temperatures. There were the long hours of darkness in the wintertime. On more than one occasion, crews shoveled snow for a week to prepare a makeshift runway for incoming aircraft bringing needed equipment and supplies, only to have a windstorm arise on the day of the expected delivery and undo the whole week of work, thereby aborting the hoped-for delivery. I still have a whole cannister of photographic slides showing over a dozen airplanes that were severely damaged while landing on the uneven ice, some of which Pop was a passenger in and others planes that he was waiting for. I recall hearing of one fatality—a man who fell into a crevasse. Building the DEW Line was anything but a cushy assignment, with the major benefit being that workers there could double their normal pay back in the States.

As mentioned above, Greenland, like Alaska and Canada, was a site of DEW Line installations. In fact, one of the gifts Pop brought back from the Arctic was a pennant for “Narsarsuak Air Base” in Greenland. I’m sure I was the only kid in my school who had ever even heard of Narsarsuak (spelled “Narsarsuaq” today). Trivia: The runway at Narsarsuaq slopes upward to the east, so that instead of aircraft taking off in the face of the incoming wind, they all take off going downhill toward the west.

The DEW Line closed in 1993. Satellites can detect missile launches much earlier than ground-based radars with sight lines limited by the Earth’s curvature. But Greenland remains strategically important. It presents a ripe field for Russian and Chinese mischief. And with the economic potential of Greenland’s mineral deposits, it is understandable that Trump wants to bring Greenland closer into the U.S. orbit. I just hope his forthright remarks don’t scuttle a good deal with the Greenlanders.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/27/2025 – 02:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/0qtABED Tyler Durden

Japanese Carmakers Face Catastrophic Profit Hit From Trump’s Auto Tariffs

Japanese Carmakers Face Catastrophic Profit Hit From Trump’s Auto Tariffs

As the fallout from Trump’s tariff plans comes into relief, a harsh truth is emerging for the automotive industry: there are lots of losers and not many winners. But foreign automakers, those without US facilities, will be hit especially hard. 

As Bloomberg notes, from South Korea’s Hyundai to Germany’s Volkswagen, and to a lesser extent America’s own General Motors, many of the world’s most prominent carmakers will soon face higher costs from Trump’s new levies on auto imports and key components. That’s because about 46% of all new cars sold in the US are imported.

“There are very few winners,” Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for AutoForecast Solutions, said in a phone interview. “Consumers will be losers because they will have reduced choice and higher prices.”

One notable winner in the tariff chaos is Elon Musk. His Tesla, which has large factories in California and Texas, churns out all the electric vehicles it sells in the US, although as Elon noted late on Wednesday, the company will also not remain unscathed.

Ford could also face a less-severe impact than some rivals, with about 80% of the cars it sells in the US being built domestically.

Others will be less lucky: starting April 2, the new 25% tariffs will apply to all imported passenger vehicles and light trucks, as well as key parts like engines, transmissions. 

Not surprisingly, the tariffs give automakers that heavily source parts in the US an edge, and Trump also allowed an exemption: the new levies will only apply to the non-US share of vehicles and parts imported under a free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. That may soften the blow for vehicles whose supply lines zig-zag across the continent. 

Tariffs on parts from Canada and Mexico that comply with the trade deal also won’t take effect until the US sets up a process to collect those levies. The US neighbors could use that window to try to stave off full implementation, even if it’s a long shot.

And while NAFTA, pardon USMCA, nations will do everything in their power to be loopholed out, foreign brands heavily reliant on imported vehicles are fresh out of luck. South Korea’s auto giant Hyundai risks being among the hardest hit: although the carmaker and its affiliate Kia have plants in Alabama and Georgia, and just yesterday announced a $21 billion US expansion plan, it imported more than a million vehicles to the US last year, accounting for more than half of its sales in the country, according to figures from Global Data. 

Hyundai “remains committed to the long-term growth of the US automotive industry through localized production and innovation,” the company said in a statement, noting it employs 570,000 people in the US. Unfortunately, according to Trump, it should employ many more, and if the company – which imports almost 60% of the cars it sells in the US – wishes to avoid tariffs, it will have to not only hire more American workers, but build many more US plants. Oh, and this is just the beginning: once the reciprocal tariffs kick in next week, South Korean exporters will find themselves in a world of pain.

What about Japan? Let’s take a closer look at the country which historically has been the biggest global auto maker, and which produces 1.3 million (and another 0.4 million tolled in Mexico) of the 16 million annual car sales (Toyota 0.6mn, Subaru 0.3mn, Nissan 0.2mn, Mazda 0.2mn, MMC 0.1mn, Honda 0.01mn). For Japan, autos account for >30% of Japan’s exports to the US, which imports about 46% of all autos sold each year.

Based on an average sales price of US$45,000, the value of imports would exceed US$330 billion, and US import tariffs could have a major impact on sales prices and auto demand. All else equal, they would raise about $100 billion in annual tax revenues. But all else will certainly not be equal, especially once exporting nations slide into recession, and their export industries are crippled.

In an analysis published three weeks ago (report available to pro subs), Goldman looked at one scenario where Japanese cars are hit with 25% tariffs, along with imports from Mexico and Canada. The results were dire. According to Goldman analyst Kota Yuzawa, the potential impact on Japanese auto companies’ operating profit – assuming a tariff of 25% on Japan in line with that imposed on imports from Canada and Mexico – is shown below. In this scenario Goldman assumes that sales volumes decline as a result of price hikes made by each company in order to offset the negative impact of tariffs (volume decline of 8-26% based on a 25% price hike for Canada/Mexico/Japan-made vehicles). In that scenario the profit hit will be anywhere between 6% for Toyota to 59% for Mazda.

In terms of exposure, Yuzawa calculates that production volume in US is largest for Subaru (39%), Honda (27%), Toyota (13%), Nissan (13%), Mazda (7%).

In another, far more draconian scenario, Japanese automakers are unable or simply refuse to hike prices to offset volume declines. The consequences are catastrophic and result in the following hit to operating profits: Toyota -¥570 bn, Honda -¥350 bn, Nissan -¥130 bn, and Mazda -¥60 bn. The implied impact on Goldman’s FY3/26 operating profit forecasts would be as follows: Toyota -11%, Honda -23%, Nissan -66%, and Mazda -34%, with Nissan and Mazda seeing relatively large impacts given their larger export mix from Canada/Mexico.

That’s just the start: in addition to the direct potential impact on finished vehicle exports described above, parts makers also have supply chains spanning multiple countries. Indeed, Toyota-affiliated companies that announced 3Q (October-December) results on January 31 referred to tariff risks. Denso’s sales from Mexico/Canada operations to the US total about ¥220 bn, while Aisin’s are about ¥60 bn. If a 25% tariff were also imposed on parts, Goldman warns forecasts potential profit declines of ¥55 bn/¥15 bn at Denso/Aisin. Toyota Boshoku did not disclose figures but noted a large potential impact, as much of its seat sewing is conducted in Mexico. Parts makers are working to pass on higher costs to automakers. Denso’s management expressed hope that tariff impact would be mitigated to some extent by the possibility of US corporate tax cuts and a weaker Mexican peso.

Ultimately, Goldman’s Yuzawa expects price increases to spread across the US auto industry, and after several years of pain, tariffed exports will find some parity with domestic producers: “Automobiles are essential goods, however, and in the longer term we expect demand for them to recover and the negative impact of tariffs on volume to gradually diminish as production of US-made models and procurement of US-made parts increases. In addition, the used car market is also robust. Higher new car prices are likely to lead to higher used car prices, which could also boost vehicle purchasing power through higher residual values. Our economists estimate price elasticity of demand at 1.2-1.5 in the short term and 0.2 in the medium term, and we use the midpoint of 1.35 in our scenario analysis in this report.”

The problem is what happens until the equilibrium point is reached over several years, and how painful will the looming Japanese recession be, because make no mistake: Japan is now almost certainly facing a recession: Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute (NRI), expects an 25% increase in U.S. auto tariffs to push down Japan’s GDP by at least 0.2%. 

“The Trump tariff has the potential to immediately push Japan’s economy into deterioration,” he said.

But what is worst of all for Japan is that the so-called virtuous wage-price cycle in which the perenially deflating nation managed to find itself, is now also doomed. That’s because the auto industry has been the driver of recent wage hikes according to Reuters, as automakers distribute the huge profits they reaped overseas to their employees. Starting April 2, kiss those profits goodbye… and if Japanese automakers want to avoid plummeting stock prices, or worse, bankruptcy, what they will immediately do is announce that any future wage increases have been put on hold and, just as likely, are about to hit reverse.

Not surprisingly, Japan’s government has expressed serious concern over the potential fallout from newly announced US tariffs, warning of risks to both bilateral economic ties and global trade stability.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Thursday that Tokyo is closely monitoring the situation following Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs. Speaking at a press briefing, Hayashi cautioned that the broad-based nature of the U.S. trade measures could have far-reaching consequences.

“We believe that the current measures and other broad-based trade restrictions by the U.S. government could have a significant impact on the economic relationship between Japan and the U.S., as well as on the global economy and the multilateral trading system,” he said.

If only there was anything Japan could do to retaliate.

As forexlive notes, one thing Hayashi didn’t mention was that the new tariffs are likely to trim back the prospect of a May rate hike from the Bank of Japan, echoing what we said, namely that “these new tariffs will hit Japan’s auto industry hard, and thus economic data.”

More in the full Goldman note “Scenario analysis on US tariffs on Mexico/Canada for Japanese automakers” available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/27/2025 – 00:12

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/atC6gRG Tyler Durden