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Ahead of Tuesday’s pivotal election in Wisconsin—which will determine whether conservatives or liberals control the state’s Supreme Court—Elon Musk’s America PAC hosted a town hall to rally support for conservative candidate Brad Schimel. The event covered several topics, including an update on DOGE-related efforts in the corrupt DC Swamp.

Forty-two minutes into the online town hall—streamed on X and other social media platforms—Musk welcomed Antonio Gracias, founder and CEO of the Chicago-based growth equity firm Valor Equity Partners. Gracias has been leading DOGE efforts to uncover fraud and waste in Social Security. 

Musk told the audience with Gracias on stage that DOGE found “20 million dead people marked as alive… Social Security database, this is too crazy, and then you’ll notice there’s a strange trend here.”

At that moment, Musk and Gracias turned their backs to the audience to explain a graph projected on the wall titled “New Non-Citizen Social Security Numbers Issued. “

Gracias told the audience, “We started at the top of the system—mapping the whole system of Social Security to understand where all the fraud was—and there were a lot of great people there who showed us, um, really a lot of waste, and so that came with a big list of stuff. But this is what jumped out at us. When we saw these numbers … we were like, what is this? In 2021, you see 270,000 people go all the way to 2.1 million in 2024. These are non-citizens that are getting Social Security numbers.” 

Musk said this chart “was mind-blowing …” 

Gracias followed that up with: “This literally blew us away. Like we went there to find fraud, and we found this by accident – and this isn’t political, by the way – my parents are immigrants – uh yeah, this country has been great to us. My brothers and sister were all born in Spain. I’m pro legal immigration. This is not political. This is about America and the future of America, and there are a lot of good people in the system who pointed us in this direction. I want to honor them right now who work in the government today, who took risks to show us these numbers and tell us what’s going on. I want to stop for a minute. I want to honor those people today – very good people. I have been from DC to Social Security offices and to the border to track this down, and very good people have helped us along the way. I want to thank them.”

He explained, “This number – what is when you come in the country if you’re an illegal, uh there’s a couple ways come in – you can go through a Port of Entry and you can tell them you’re afraid and you’ll get an asylum case and you’ll get an interview then you get in – that’s one way to do it. Another way to do it is to go to the border – literally, this happened. I talked to the border patrol myself.  Elon was there too. I went to Laredo, and you walked up to a border portal officer and told them you wanted to come. They have a couple of choices. They could charge you with a misdemeanor or a felony under 1325 or they can make an administrative offense like a parking ticket basically, they were told to do that make an administrative offense under the last Administration and then you go walk across the border they uh do what’s called a release from your own recognizance and they give you an NTA (notice to appear) which to appear at a judge the weight times on judges are like average six years -look at Grok-you’ll see it on immigration judges – there’s only 700 of them this is 5.5 million people.” 

“Next, once you’re in the country and you got asylum through one of these pathways we mapped the whole thing out – you can apply for a work document – you file a 765 – it’s the work form – you get this form called the 766 – that’s the authorization – and then Social Security Administration automatically sends you in the mail your social security number – no interview no ID,” Gracias explained further. 

Musk chimed in: “Just reiterating, sometimes people think that Biden was asleep at the switch. But this was a massive large-scale program to import as many illegals as possible ultimately to change the entire voting map of the United States and disenfranchise the American people and make it a permanent deep blue one-party state, from which there would be no escape.” 

Gracias emphasized that “defaults in the system from Social Security to all of the benefit programs have been set to Max inclusion – max pay – for these people and Minimum Collection – that’s what’s happening. We found that 1.3 million of them are already on Medicaid. And the 5 million of them on benefit programs.” 

“What was really disturbing us was why. We’re asking ourselves why, and so we actually just took a sample and looked at voter registration records and we found people here registered to vote in this population – yes – and we found some by sampling some that did vote. And we have referred them to prosecution at the homeland security investigation,” Gracias said, adding, “Truly disturbing thing to me and the darkest thing about this to me uh the voter fraud is terrible but the human tragedy this created is extraordinary. Americans need to know – that’s why I’m here – that human traffickers made 13 to 15 billion dollar off of this – that’s the money that’s going around the world moving people around the world to our borders because of these incentives.” 

Elon Musk exposes massive social security fraud with non citizens receiving a social security number

Why would anyone be against eliminating fraud like this in government? pic.twitter.com/dSwUTbcbQg

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 31, 2025

Last month, Musk summed up why the Democratic Party and corrupt NGOs, along with far-left globalist billionaires, facilitated the illegal alien invasion:

“The REAL reason so many Democrats are upset about entitlements (social security, medical, etc) fraud investigations is that they are using your taxpayer money as handouts to attract and retain ILLEGAL immigrants. Their future voters.” 

The REAL reason so many Democrats are upset about entitlements (social security, medical, etc) fraud investigations is that they are using your taxpayer money as handouts to attract and retain ILLEGAL immigrants. Their future voters.

That’s what it’s all about.

Truth.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 17, 2025

At the same time, the Democratic Party and their globalist billionaire allies prioritized their desire for more power over the nation, which triggered alarming national security and biosecurity threats.

In response to the Democratic Party’s illegal alien invasion scheme, shadowy Marxist NGOs aligned with the woke party have launched firebombing attacks against Elon Musk’s Tesla showrooms, charging stations, and vehicles across the country—all in retaliation for DOGE exposing this massive fraud.

Via Real InvestmentAdvice.com,

It wasn’t that long ago that used car prices were soaring as the production of new cars was crimped due to Covid-related supply line shortages. 

Since then, used car prices have stabilized as the supply lines have healed. 

However, like many goods, prices haven’t retreated to pre-pandemic levels. 

As we wrote in yesterday’s Commentary, the new 25% tariff on cars assembled outside the US could raise new car prices. 

JP Morgan thinks the impact could be 10% or more if the tariffs are fully passed on to consumers. 

Thus, those consumers unable or unwilling to pay a higher price may resort to purchasing a used car. 

Economists call this the substitution effect.

The market seems to think the tariffs will benefit used car suppliers. Per Bloomberg:

As of midday Thursday, shares of used-vehicle dealers CarMax Inc. and Carvana Co. were each modestly higher, while rental-car company Hertz Global Holdings Inc. soared as much as 27% to its best intraday gain in more than three years. GM, Ford, and Stellantis all fell.

While the supply lines are back to normal, the used car market is still short on supply. 

If demand for lower-end new models declines, as many of them are made outside of the US, used cars will likely be more in demand. 

Thus, their prices are likely to rise. 

Given the on-again, off-again nature of tariff announcements and actions, the net impact on new and used auto prices is unclear at this time.

Aston Martin shares in London soared as much as 13% after the British sports car maker announced it would raise at least £125 million ($162 million) through a share sale to Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll’s investment vehicle and by selling a minority stake in its Formula One racing team.

Bloomberg reported that Stroll’s Yew Tree Consortium plans to increase its stake in the struggling British luxury sports car maker to 33% from about 27.7%. The deal will provide Aston Martin with about £52.5 million. The new shares were priced at 70 pence apiece to Friday’s closing price. 

Aston Martin CEO Adrian Hallmark released a statement stating, “This renewed support from Lawrence and his Yew Tree Consortium partners underlines their immense confidence in our team and the future of the Company.” 

“By strengthening the balance sheet, this investment provides additional headroom to support our future product innovation and business transformation activities, which combined, will accelerate our progress into being a sustainably profitable company,” Hallmark added.

Aston Martin also plans to sell a minority stake in the Formula One team that bears its name and raise an additional £74 million. The buyer was not disclosed. Stroll controls the racing team independently. 

The latest financial outlook from the sports car maker signaled lower volume guidance for 2025, citing trade wars and tariffs. The company now expects “modest growth,” down from its previous target of mid-single-digit percentage growth. CEO Adrian Hallmark had already lowered the profit target for 2025 and slashed 170 jobs—about 5% of the workforce. 

Under British takeover rules, Stroll’s Yew Tree Consortium would be required to bid for all of Aston Martin. However, AFP News noted, “Yew is asking for this to be waived.” 

“Exemptions have been granted in the past, yet it feels like a takeover would be a better outcome as it would mean the car company would be free to pursue a turnaround strategy out of the public spotlight,” AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould wrote in a note. 

Aston Martin has turned to investors multiple times, but with repeated profit warnings, a struggling race team, and now the impact of trade wars, the company has yet to initiate a meaningful turnaround strategy.

Another day, another set of mixed messaging from macro (soft survey) data…

On the bright side, MNI’s Chicago Manufacturing PMI surged higher this morning as March data printed 47.6 (above expectations but still in contraction <50) - the highest since December 2023.

On the not so bright side, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing PMI survey tumbled to -16.3 (well below expectations) – the lowest since July 2024.

It gets better though…

While Chicago’s data shows Prices Paid slowing, New Orders falling, and Inventories falling.

Dallas’ data showed Prices Paid higher, New Orders higher, and Inventories rising…

The Dallas Fed outlook also tumbled as the comments from respondents was almost entirely focused on tariff fears…

• The tariff discussion is driving significant uncertainty and a negative outlook. Project costs are increasing immediately, with significant rises in equipment and piping costs.

• Tariffs and the economy may be a drag on business.

• Tariffs are a constant and increasing source of uncertainty. We do not know what prices we will have to pay for components, and we do not know how customers will respond to increases strictly related to tariffs. Also, it is unknown how the market will change in response to the tariffs and higher costs. We know we will lose opportunities to build products used for other countries because we already have, but will tariffs bring new opportunities from foreign companies wanting to build in the U.S.? That remains to be seen, but the known risk currently seems to outweigh the unknown opportunity.

• Trump, tariffs, massive uncertainty—how can you do business planning with all of this uncertainty and the daily changes in direction made by the Trump administration?

• The cyclical recovery looks like it is continuing. There is lots of noise and uncertainty with tariffs and rumors of trade restrictions.

• Our biggest concern is import taxes and the increase in price that it causes.

• We seem to be in a holding pattern. There’s much uncertainty in our customer base. Tariffs will drive/have driven pricing up for raw materials at a rate far exceeding the true tariff implementation rate. There’s optimism, but there’s also an abundance of trepidation. Ultimately, we sense the underlying economy is stronger than the general public sentiment, so that should bode well for the last half of the year.

• Tariffs! We need to make decisions, but the ball is constantly moving. This is truly ridiculous. I have been in business for 50 years as of next year, and never have I seen such uncertainty in the market. It is very difficult to plan and make decisions.

• The craziness over tariffs is very painful as I’m confident this is a reason for a general malaise we are sensing in our customers. If not for some specific work we do this time of year, we would be stupid slow and in stark contrast to where we were 12 months ago. I’m very worried about what the next six to 12 months will look like, especially if these goofy tariffs become a reality.

• Uncertainty due to tariffs is the wild card. Imports from Mexico and Canada are vital to the business and the industry. U.S. suppliers cannot supply quantities required. The tariffs are definitely inflationary.

• The tariffs will loom large on our market demand. The commercial vehicle industry is still in a freight recession, which drives our overall demand.

We leave you with this final comment…

Despite all of the doomsaying in the press, we are not seeing any drop in orders. 

We have invested heavily in equipment and production capacity in the last 12 months and are seeing the benefits from that now. 

While a short recession is a possibility due to the reductions in government spending, we view this as a net positive for the economy and our business in the medium term.

Finally, we can focus on business rather than policy. It is great to get back to work.

So, who do we believe – Chicagoans or Texans?

By Bas van Geffen, CFA, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

The United States’ ‘Liberation Day’ is just around the corner, but President Trump’s trade advisers are still rushing to finalize the set of reciprocal tariffs that the US president is so keen to announce. Last week, Trump seemed to suggest that his reciprocal tariffs could be lower and less extensive than he had flagged before. However, perhaps that was everyone misinterpreting the president’s words.

Over the weekend, Trump has reportedly complained to his staff that the tariffs should be higher and more extensive. Yesterday, Trump more or less confirmed this to the press, stating that his tariff announcement will include all countries, and not just the 10 or 15 with the biggest trade surplus versus the US. And so, a 20% universal tariff might be back on the table as one of the options.

And if anyone still thought that the inflationary effects might rein Trump in, think again. Referring to the recent introduction of tariffs on cars and car parts, the president explicitly stated that “he couldn’t care less” if this causes car prices to go up – refuting earlier reports that Trump had convened carmakers to warn them against raising prices. In fact, he’d welcome it if this means that people will start buying more American-made cars again. So, as the Trump administration prepares to “liberate” the country, traders are looking to liberate themselves from their equity holdings. The Nikkei 225 started the trading week with a 4% loss, and European equity markets open lower as well.

Trump intends to liberate the US, but his belligerence is also waking other leaders from their slumber. ECB President Lagarde said this morning that tariffs are a chance for Europe to show its own independence. That may require a vastly different Europe though. Guy Verhofstadt, former prime minister of Belgium and Member of the European Parliament, summarized it as follows: “To do this, 27 Commissioners, 27 Armies, 27 vetos, no single capital market, 3 Presidents, no single person to call in Europe… doesn’t make sense anymore! Europe must be reimagined.”

He may have a point, but that is probably still a step too far for many Europeans. Although the European Commission senses the urgency of a joint approach in areas like defense, the execution is so far being left to the national governments. Even issues like joint EU borrowing are still a no-go for several member states. And that could be detrimental to the plans.

Germany has been remarkably quick to embrace the need for higher defense spending. But that may thwart efforts elsewhere in Europe. The expected German issuance has not just pushed Bund yields higher; it has also increased the funding costs for other European nations. Countries with a high debt ratio, like Portugal, were already reluctant to spend more, because higher deficits may put their finances on an unsustainable path again. Higher interest rates only increase these concerns.

And EU countermeasures to Trump’s Liberation Day may further complicate the continent’s efforts. Brussels has all the tools to respond to US tariffs. And the tone of EU trade officials has hardened. However, if the European Union ‘demonstrates its independence’ by retaliating against any US tariffs, rising costs will only make it more difficult to achieve actual independence from the US. If Europe still gets that time in such a situation: Trump has demonstrated he is willing to use political and military means if the economic ones don’t work. Is Europe willing to risk losing the US security umbrella before it can rebuild its own?

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said on March 29 that he had no intention to fire anyone in his Cabinet after a journalist was accidentally added to a Signal group chat discussing his administration’s plans for an airstrike against the Houthis in Yemen.

“I don’t fire people because of fake news and because of witch hunts,” Trump told NBC News in a phone interview on March 29.

On March 13, national security adviser Michael Waltz inadvertently added The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, to a Signal group text, called “Houthi PC small group,” of administration officials discussing the airstrike. Signal is an encrypted messaging service.

The veteran national security and foreign affairs journalist said he was at first skeptical of the authenticity of the group, discussing with colleagues whether the texts were “part of a disinformation campaign, initiated by either a foreign intelligence service, or, more likely, a media-gadfly organization” that sought to embarrass journalists.

After the leak, the National Security Council released a statement confirming the chat’s authenticity.

“At this time, the message thread that was reported appears to be authentic, and we are reviewing how an inadvertent number was added to the chain,” the statement read.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed details in the chat of how the strike would commence. The Atlantic eventually published an article about the group chat.

On March 29, Trump said he still has confidence in both Waltz and Hegseth.

“I think it’s just a witch hunt, and the fake news, like you, talk about it all the time, but it’s just a witch hunt, and it shouldn’t be talked [about],” he added. “We had a tremendously successful strike. We struck very hard and very lethal. And nobody wants to talk about that. All they want to talk about is nonsense. It’s fake news.”

During a March 26 press briefing, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterated that Trump stands by his national security officials.

“What I can say definitively is what I just spoke to the president about, and he continues to have confidence in his national security team,” she said.

In his March 29 phone interview, Trump said that he has “no idea what Signal is” and doesn’t “care what Signal is.”

The Epoch Times has requested a full transcript of the call from NBC.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Vaccine stocks tumbled in the early U.S. cash session after Peter Marks—a top FDA regulator and pro-vaxxer—abruptly resigned on Friday.

Wall Street analysts view Marks’ departure as a bearish signal for vaccine stocks, such as Moderna, Novavax, BioNTech, and others, which already face mounting headwinds, including a wave of layoffs expected at the Department of Health and Human Services.

Moderna puked at the open, down 12% in early trading, while the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF sank 2%. Other makers of vaccine stocks plunged, including Novavax -10% and BioNTech -5.8%.

Moderna shares are also down 95% from peak Covid highs.

Bloomberg provided color on Marks’ role and how his departure is bearish for the industry: 

As the leader of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, Marks was a key figure in the quick approvals of Covid vaccines during the pandemic. Along with shots, he was responsible for the agency’s evaluation of cutting-edge treatments such as cell and gene therapies.

In his resignation letter, Marks cited friction with the views of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime vaccine critic.

“I was willing to work to address the Secretary’s concerns regarding vaccine safety and transparency,” he said. “However it has become clear that truth and transparency are not desired by the Secretary, but rather he wishes subservient confirmation of his misinformation and lies.”

Analysts—including BMO Capital Markets’ Evan David Seigerman—view the departure as a “significant negative” for the biotech and biopharma sectors.

“It’s no secret that Biotech has been under immense pressure recently given broader macro issues, this unfortunate update does nothing to reassure investors or provide relief,” Seigerman told clients, adding that gene and cell therapy companies are under pressure given Marks’ relationship with many of them. 

Here’s further analyst insight into the change of guard at the FDA in the era of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running the Department of Health and Human Services (courtesy of Bloomberg):

William Blair, Matt Larew

• Expects in the space could weaken further given that Marks “was a cheerleader for innovation in biotech and strong supporter of new modalities”

• Says Marks’s departure and the recently announced HHS cuts stack on top of “an unsettlingly large pile of news flow in the space year-to-date that creates uncertainty for funding, regulatory and approval processes, and supply chains”

• Adds that the steady stream of negative news flow “has simply been too much for stocks in the space to overcome

RBC Capital Markets, Brian Abrahams

• Says the news is not good for the biotech industry even beyond vaccines, as Marks had been a key advocate for more flexible, efficient approval processes for drugs particularly those for orphan diseases such as gene therapies

• “We expect some weakness for biotech as uncertainty continues to be perpetuated”

Truist, Joon Lee

• Says news of the resignation could put some pressure on companies whose drugs are currently, or planned to be, under review by the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research

Last week, Bloomberg reported that leaked documents reveal the Trump administration plans to slash $28 billion in global health initiatives—including funding cuts to Bill Gates’ vaccine alliance, Gavi.

WINNING. President Trump has cancelled $1 BILLION to Bill Gates ‘GAVI Vaccine Alliance’…

“Bill Gates controls the WHO which mandates ‘vaccines’ for the entire World…” -HHS RFK Jr.pic.twitter.com/9Y4BCx1qhM

— Liz Churchill (@liz_churchill10) March 30, 2025

Meanwhile…

• USAID Panic Mode: Bill Gates Goes On MSM, Bashes Musk’s DOGE, Fear-Mongers About Next Pandemic

• Climate Group Controlled By Bill Gates Hit By Layoffs

. . . 

Welcome to the last day of March ahead of the hotly anticipated “Liberation Day” on Wednesday. US and European markets are sharply lower and Asian equity markets are also sinking as the fear of what it may contain continues to build (the Nikkei tumbled into a correction overnight). As Goldman trader John Flood writes, “brace yourself for a crazy week ahead. S&P 500’s implied move through Friday” (4/4) is 260bps (he will take the over).  

On the economic data front we get China’s NBS PMIs on Monday morning, US Manufacturing ISM (Tuesday morning; the Street is modeling 49.8, down from 50.3 in Feb), Services ISM (Thursday morning; the Street is modeling 53.1, down from 53.5 in Feb), and Jobs (Friday morning; the Street is modeling 135K, down from 151K in Feb, and according to Michael Hartnett this number is more important than Trump’s tariff announcement). Also need to keep an eye on the first major political contests since Trump’s reelection taking place on Tuesday 4/1 (the judicial election in Wisconsin and the special House races in Florida).

According to Flood, the Grand Daddy of this week’s events is the tariffs announcement on April 2: he notes that Goldman economists believe that “risks lean towards a negative surprise on announcement day for 2 main reasons: First, administration officials have said that the soon-to-be announced tariff rates are intended as the basis for negotiation, which incentivizes the proposal of higher rates at the outset. Second, their recent survey showed that market participants anticipate the reciprocal tariff rate to be 9% on average, while GS economists believe the initial proposal could be closer to double that expectation.”

Moving back to this week, outside of “liberation day” and 25% tariffs on imported autos commencing on Thursday, it’s also a big week for macro with all roads leading to Friday’s payrolls and a speech by Powell. Before that, the main highlights are: today’s German CPI; tomorrow’s US manufacturing ISM, US auto sales, US JOLTS, China’s manufacturing PMI, Japan’s Tankan, Eurozone CPI, the RBA rate decision, and a speech from Lagarde; Wednesday’s ADP report; Thursday’s US ISM services, China’s services PMI, Eurozone PPI, and the ECB account of the March meeting; all before the big end to the week on Friday.

In terms of what to expect from “Liberation Day” on Wednesday, the bid-offer is huge. As DB’s economists laid out last week reciprocal tariffs could add roughly 4 (best case) to 14ppts (worst case) to the overall US tariff rate relative to its 2024 level of 2.5%. The hit to 2025 real US GDP growth could be as little as -25bps to as high as -120bps. For core PCE inflation, reciprocal tariffs could add anywhere from a couple of basis points to potentially 1.2ppts. Importantly, these impacts are additional to the risks to growth and inflation from previously announced tariff actions.

DB’s economists calculate that the trade actions taken to date (if they remain in place through year end) imply an overall US tariff rate of roughly 10.5%, which is the highest since WWII. The Trump Administration’s auto tariffs could push the US tariff rate as high as another couple of percentage points higher depending on the implementation details. So the starting point before “liberation day” is 10.5-12.5%. As such by the end of this week we could be looking at a aggregate US tariff rate of (very roughly) between 15 and 25%.

Over the weekend, Trump told NBC that he “couldn’t care less” if automakers had to raise prices in the US as it would force Americans to buy US made cars. The 25% tariffs are due to come into force on Thursday. So its becoming ever clearer that this administration is serious about bringing massive change to economic policy. If and where their pain threshold is in terms of markets and the economy is the next most important question. The rhetoric from the administration at the moment seems to suggest its high but there is an extraordinary amount of uncertainty at the moment.

The pain isn’t showing up in the hard data at the moment and in terms of US payrolls on Friday there’s only likely to be a small impact, DB forecasts +150k for both headline and private against +151k and +140k respectively last time. Incorporated in that is a roughly 20k drag from federal layoffs which have been complicated by court actions against them. DB expect the unemployment rate to just round up to 4.2% from 4.1% last time. Before that it will be interesting to see if the US manufacturing ISM (Tuesday) and services (Thursday) show any sentiment hit.

As an aside, several weeks ago, DB’s Jim Reid referred to a “rather insightful” podcast featuring US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the “All-In” podcast (link here). He outlined his ideologies and, in my view, committed the administration to potentially transformative policies. Shortly thereafter, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appeared on the same podcast (link here) and presented perhaps an even more radical perspective on the potential policy direction.

As Reid notes today, “these are valuable podcasts to listen to and have helped convince me that this administration is serious about radical change.” We will have more to say about this shortly.

Back to this week’s events, tomorrow sees two special congressional elections in Florida to fill the seats of Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz in the US House of Representatives. These are Republican strongholds but some polling has suggested it could be close. The Republicans will still control the House regardless but only have the narrowest of majorities so these are important elections in terms of breathing space for their agenda.

In geopolitics, the focus will be on a meeting of NATO foreign ministers on April 3-4. Its the first time they’ve met since Trump’s inauguration. So they’ll have plenty to discuss

Staying on this theme, over the weekend, Trump suggested he was angry at Putin over his recent comments that Zelenskiy should be replaced as a price for peace negotiations. Mr Trump used slightly stronger language according to NBC. Trump said that if Russia was to blame for there being no peace deal he’s prepared to put secondary sanctions on Russian oil.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 31

• Data: US March MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, China March official PMIs, UK March Lloyds Business Barometer, February net consumer credit, M4, Japan February industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, Germany March CPI, February retail sales, import price index, Italy March CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Panetta and Villeroy speak

Tuesday April 1

• Data: US March ISM index, Dallas Fed services activity, total vehicle sales, February JOLTS report, construction spending, China March Caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan Q1 Tankan survey, February jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, Italy March manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, February unemployment rate, Eurozone March CPI, February unemployment rate, Canada March manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks, ECB’s Lagarde and Lane speak, BoE’s Greene speaks, RBA decision
• Other: US House special elections in Florida

Wednesday April 2

• Data: US March ADP report, February factory orders, Japan March monetary base, France February budget balance
• Central banks: Fed’s Kugler speaks, ECB’s Schnabel and Escriva speak

Thursday April 3

• Data: US March ISM services, February trade balance, initial jobless claims, UK March official reserves changes, China March Caixin services PMI, Italy March services PMI, Eurozone February PPI, Canada February international merchandise trade, Switzerland March CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Jefferson and Cook speak, ECB’s account of the March meeting, BoE’s March DMP survey
• Other: Nato foreign ministers meeting, through April 4

Friday April 4

• Data: US March jobs report, UK March new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan February household spending, Germany March construction PMI, February factory orders, France February industrial production, Italy February retail sales, Canada March jobs report, Sweden March CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Powell and Barr speak

* * *

Finally, looking at just US macro, the key economic data releases this week are the ISM report on Tuesday and the employment situation report on Friday. President Trump is expected to announce new tariff policies on Wednesday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including speeches by Vice Chair Jefferson on Thursday and by Chair Powell on Friday.

 
Monday, March 31

• 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, March (consensus 45.0, last 45.5)
• 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus -5.0, last -8.3)

Tuesday, April 1

• 09:00 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will discuss monetary policy and the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations. On March 28th, President Barking noted that the rapid policy changes implemented and proposed by the Trump administration have created “a sense of instability” in the business community that could “quiet demand.” Barkin characterized the current stance of monetary policy as “moderately restrictive,” which he said was a “good place to be.” He also said that he was “open to the notion” that tariffs would provide a one-time boost to the price level rather than a persistent boost to the inflation rate but noted that he did not “start with [that] assumption,” in part because inflation expectations “have been loosened—not de-anchored, loosened—for both price setters and price receivers” after the recent inflationary episode.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March final (consensus 49.8, last 49.8)
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.2%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, February (GS 7,500k, consensus 7,680k, last 7,740k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 7.5mn in February based on the signal from online job postings.
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, March (GS 49.5, consensus 49.5, last 50.3): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index declined by 0.8pt to 49.5 in March, reflecting softer manufacturing surveys so far for March (GS manufacturing survey tracker: -0.6pt to 51.7) but a tailwind from residual seasonality.
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, March (GS 16.4mn, consensus 16.0mn, last 16.0mn)

Wednesday, April 2

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, March (GS +110k, consensus +120k, last +77k)
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.7%); Factory orders ex-transportation, February (consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%); Durable goods orders, February final (consensus +0.9%, last +0.9%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February final (consensus +0.7%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods orders, February final (last -0.3%); Core capital goods shipments, February final (last +0.9%)
• 04:30 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a speech on inflation expectations and monetary policy at the Griswold Center for Economic Policy’s 2025 Public Talk. Text and Q&A are expected. On March 25th, Governor Kugler said that the FOMC was “well positioned” and could “react to new developments by holding at the current rate for some time as we closely monitor incoming data and the cumulative effects of new policies.” Kugler highlighted that goods inflation had “turned positive in recent months,” which she said was “unhelpful because goods inflation has often kept a lid on total inflation and also affects inflation expectations.”

Thursday, April 3

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$126.0bn, consensus -$123.4bn, last -$131.4bn)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 29 (GS 230k, consensus 225k, last 224k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 22 (consensus 1,867k, last 1,856k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, March final (consensus 54.1, last 54.3)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, March (GS 52.5, consensus 53.0, last 53.5): We estimate that the ISM services index declined to 52.5 in March, reflecting sequential softening in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (-0.5pt to 52.6 in March) and a headwind from residual seasonality.
• 12:30 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and central bank communication at a conference hosted by the Atlanta Fed. Text and Q&A are expected. On February 19th, Vice Chair Jefferson said that “monetary policy remains restrictive,” but that “with a strong economy and a solid labor market, we can take our time to assess the incoming data to make any further adjustments to our policy rate.”
• 02:30 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the University of Pittsburgh. Text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, April 4

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, March (GS +150k, consensus +138k, last +151k); Private payroll employment, March (GS +160k, consensus +130k, last +140k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, March (GS 4.1%, consensus 4.1%, last 4.1%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 150k in March. On the positive side, big data indicators pointed to a solid pace of job creation. The return of striking workers will be a 15k net boost, according to the strike report, and we expect a rebound in hiring among weather-sensitive industries following the particularly cold weather in January and February. On the negative side, we expect a moderate hit—we assume 25k—from the combined reduction in force actions of the federal government and a more moderate, but still positive, pace of state and local hiring (+15k). We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% on a rounded basis and that the participation rate was unchanged at 62.4%. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting positive calendar effects.
• 11:25 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing’s Annual Conference. Text and Q&A are expected. We saw Chair Powell’s comments at the press conference after the March FOMC meeting as somewhat dovish. Powell downplayed the sharp increase in Michigan inflation expectations, noted that other measures have been more stable, and said that the baseline is that tariffs will only delay further progress on inflation until 2026. He also reiterated that the FOMC was well positioned to wait for further clarity and not in a hurry to cut again.
• 12:00 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will deliver a speech on artificial intelligence and banking. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 12:45 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will take part in an event on payment systems at a conference hosted by the New York Fed. Q&A is expected. Governor Waller dissented from the FOMC’s decision to slow the pace of balance sheet runoff at its March meeting. In a statement explaining his dissent, Waller said he thought that reserves were not yet “closer to an ample level of reserves” that he saw as an appropriate place to slow or stop balance sheet runoff. Waller also said that the FOMC had a “variety of tools” to address “unanticipated disturbances to reserve demand” should they emerge. On March 6th, Waller argued that the FOMC’s ability to lower the fed funds rate this year would “depend on our ability to tease out the effects of tariffs” on inflation. He also noted that “the uncertainty around tariffs has caused a lot of caution from the private sector and households.”

Source: DB, Goldman

Via The Cradle

Syria’s self-declared interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa announced the formation of the country’s new transitional government late on Saturday. “The formation of a new government today is a declaration of our joint will to build a new state,” Sharaa said during a speech marking the formation. 

Several of his top officials have retained their posts, including Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra. Anas Hassan Khattab, who served as intelligence director after the fall of the former government of Bashar al-Assad, was appointed as Minister of Interior. 

All three were members of Sharaa’s extremist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) organization, the former branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria (when it was known as the Nusra Front), which has been officially dissolved, but retains the bulk of its fighting formation as part of the country’s new army and security apparatus. 

The formation comes as Sharaa has been under increasing western pressure lately to establish an inclusive administration, weeks after his government forces killed over 1,500 Alawite civilians in a series of bloody sectarian massacres in early March. 

Hind Qabawat, a Christian and a former member of the Riyadh-based Syrian Negotiation Commission, was appointed Minister of Social Affairs and Labor. She is the only woman in the newly appointed transitional government. 

An Alawite, Yarub Badr, was named as Transport Minister. Member of the Druze community, Amgad Badr, was appointed as Minister of Agriculture.

Mohammad Bashir, who was prime minister in the caretaker government following the fall of Assad’s government on December 8, 2024, has been made Energy Minister. There is currently no prime minister, as the temporary constitution signed by Sharaa recently states that a secretary-general will lead the government. 

Raed Saleh, leader of the White Helmets group, which now operates as the official Syrian Civil Defense, was appointed Minister of Emergency Situations and Disasters. The White Helmets worked closely with Al-Qaeda throughout the Syrian war and participated in its executions. 

Saleh previously praised US airstrikes on Syria during US President Donald Trump’s first term. Mazhar al-Wais, another former HTS and Nusra Front member, was appointed Justice Minister, replacing the controversial Shadi Mohammad al-Waisi, who was seen in videos from 2015 directing the execution of women.

Syrian Kurd Mohammad Terko was made Minister of Education. No representatives of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) or the affiliated Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) were appointed to the government.

Sharaa signed a temporary constitution on 13 March after receiving it from a committee of legal experts that drafted it. The president had previously claimed that drafting a constitution and holding elections in Syria would take several years.

Correction: Al Qaeda started the “White Helmets are Alqaeda” frenzy.

Here’s Abu Jaber, a top Al-Qaeda leader in Syria (now known as “HTS”), praising the White Helmets as “hidden soldiers.” https://t.co/jIE2wF6HqQ pic.twitter.com/RupNQ3qnIV

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) December 5, 2024

Days before the temporary constitution was signed, government forces massacred well over 1,500 Alawite civilians during a violent security operation to quell an armed uprising on the Syrian coast carried out by elements of Syria’s former military. 

With Hooters on the verge of bankruptcy, the legendary restaurant where you can eat mediocre food and check out tits (and pay in cash so your wife doesn’t find out) is getting rid of Bikini Nights and skimpy outfits, and hopes that an improvement in the food will stave off doom.

Neil Kiefer, CEO of parent company HMC Hospitality Group, told Bloomberg he’s calling the ‘family friendly’ changes “re-Hooterization.”

“You go to some parts of the country and people say, ‘Oh, I could never go to Hooters, my wife would kill me,” said Kiefer. “That’s depressing to us. We want to change that.”

According to the report, Hooters also plans to use fresher ingredients in the kitchen and provide faster service.

The move comes after the chain has closed several locations across the country – with 40 shuttered last year, and the remaining 300 on the line. At its peak in 2008, there were 400 locations.

In 2021, the chain unveiled a new uniform featuring “wedgie” micro shorts – which resembled bikini bottoms, and which some waitresses called “porn.”

According to industry analyst Aaron Allen, “For a business to be successful and sustainable, it helps to appeal to more than just men.”

* * *

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The turnaround plan would likely see HMC and other Hooters franchisees take over most of the US locations that are currently owned and run by Hooters of America, which would likely see the closure of some locations, according to people familiar with the discussions. HOA is currently owned by Nord Bay Capital and TriArtisan Capital Advisors, LLC.

The end result is that HMC, should the plan go through, would help oversee the overall brand and advise franchisees on how to operate. The fix, according to Kiefer, boils down to three principles: good food, good service and regular reinvestment in the stores’ operations, something he says has been lacking at the eateries owned by HOA.

“There’s a noticeable difference,” Kiefer said. “The food’s different, the service is different — I hope to correct it all.”

In 2022, HOA’s owners, among other things, added $50 million in subordinated debt, after issuing approximately $300 million in asset-backed bonds in 2014, which were packaged as ‘whole-business securitizations,’ pledging most of its assets, including franchise fees, as collateral. The current bankruptcy under consideration would see certain holders of its securitized debt team up with HMC to facilitate a change of control, according to the report. In this scenario, the debt holders would likely agree to restructure or roll their debt into securities with a longer maturity and the same or similar collateral pools.

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