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Parsing through a Goldman note on the online dating sector, particularly focusing on Match Group (MTCH), Bumble (BMBL), and Grindr (GRND), the industry remains on a healthy upward growth trajectory. However, mature online dating markets are slowing, while emerging regions (Asia ex-China) drive new user adoption. While Hinge outperforms Tinder, Bumble is restructuring its growth strategy, and Grindr continues penetrating the LGBTQ+ community.

Goldman analysts Eric Sheridan and Julia Fein-Ashley provided clients with the key takeaways of what’s currently happening across the online dating industry:

1. We continue to forecast the directly addressable online dating user TAM to grow at a 4% CAGR from 2024-2029;

2. Expect Asia ex-China to contribute to a large portion of new dating users and slower growth from more mature markets (i.e. UCAN [United States and Canada]/Europe growing at a 1% CAGR from 2024-2029); &

3. Forecast Hinge to increase penetration in the addressable user market, driven partially by continued focus on the international opportunity (and scaling in new international regions/markets).

Sheridan leveraged third-party data and industry sources that found the latest trends: 

1. Industry: UCAN user preferences continue to shift towards intentional dating and community/friendship oriented apps (a theme of industry narrowing at the application layer);

2. GRND: the LGBTQ+ userbase size at Tinder/Hinge remains less scaled than Grindr &

3. BMBL: commentary around Bumble’s decision to discontinue/sunset the Fruitz app.

Instead of analyzing the entire note, we highlight two interesting trends.

The first is Bumble for Friends. This app helps users build platonic relationships rather than romantic connections and has seen rapid growth over the last 18 months. 

More from the analysts:

Bumble for Friends (BFF) has continued to scale over the past 18 months, both in MAUs (now in double digits as a % of Bumble App MAUs in UCAN) and engagement (Exhibit 10). We view this as an area of increasing focus at Bumble, with mgmt. noting their increased focus on the friendship/community opportunity and shift in focus away from other apps (i.e. discontinuing Fruitz and Official apps

While BFF tends to have less of an impact on the number of total paying users, we view the app as providing a low-pressure alternative to dating apps and an additional acquisition channel specifically targeting younger (Gen Z) users.

The second is this…

“This, paired with LGBTQ+ identification being more common among American women (Exhibit 12) highlights that addressable user penetration rates at Grindr are likely higher than Tinder/Hinge (even when factoring in differences among addressable LGBTQ+ population),” the analysts noted. 

1 in 5 Gen Z & millennial women! 

It’s not a surprise after 15 years of woke propaganda jammed down the throats of all generations. 

When you peel back the rainbow shell of the woke and well-funded Pride Month conglomerate, you find something deeply insidious. Their profits come at a steep cost: the well-being of vulnerable children.

These corporations aren’t allies, they’re opportunists. They’ve discovered… pic.twitter.com/Lnl3Y2Euot

— Gays Against Groomers (@againstgrmrs) June 29, 2024

To sum up, younger generations increasingly rely on friendship apps rather than engaging in real-world exchanges at bars, restaurants, churches, and other public areas, making eye contact, and simply saying “hello”—a tradition that has existed for thousands of years. Additionally, 15 years of woke has led to 1 in 5 women identifying as LGBTQ+ (maybe we’re missing a few letters and numbers).

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A far-left French MEP has called on the United States to return the Statue of Liberty, claiming the nation clearly doesn’t appreciate the monument or what it stands for.

French MEP Raphaël Glucksmann made the provocative remark on Sunday while addressing approximately 1,500 activists at his Place Publique party congress.

Glucksmann criticized certain American political decisions, claiming that the U.S. had forsaken the values of liberty that the statue represents.

“Give us back the Statue of Liberty,” Glucksmann declared, targeting “Americans who have chosen to switch to the side of tyrants.” 

He particularly condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for what he claimed was the dismissal of researchers in their pursuit of scientific freedom, suggesting that if the U.S. no longer values liberty, the statue would be more fitting in France.

“You have been given it as a gift, but apparently you despise it. So she will be very comfortable here at home,” Glucksmann said of the famous landmark.

His remarks were met with cheers from his supporters.

The Statue of Liberty, designed by French sculptor Auguste Bartholdi with engineering contributions from Gustave Eiffel, was gifted by the French people to the United States to commemorate their alliance during the American Revolutionary War. Unveiled on Oct. 28, 1886, the statue has since stood as a symbol of American democracy and freedom on Liberty Island in New York Harbor.

A vocal supporter of Ukraine, Glucksmann also criticized Trump’s disengagement from the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. He expressed concerns over the global rise of far-right movements, which he linked to Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen. In response, he called for “democratic resistance” to counter what he termed the “Trump and Musk fan club” in France.

Glucksmann further extended an invitation to American researchers who feel restricted by their country’s policies, stating:

“If you want to fire your best researchers, if you want to dismiss those who, through their freedom, innovation, and sense of inquiry, have made your country the world’s leading power, then we will welcome them.”

His party has distributed a flyer urging the creation of a political force to uphold the French values of “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity” by launching “training programs” to counter right-wing ideologies.

Read more here…

*  *  *

White House Spokesperson Caroline Leavitt made her feelings clear…  “It’s only because of the United States of America that the French are not speaking German right now. They should be very grateful…”

White House Press Secretary Leavitt:

It’s only because of the United States of America that the French are not speaking German right now.

They should be very grateful. pic.twitter.com/w0tcpQ2XEz

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 17, 2025

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Trump wants the Fed to cut interest rates to weaken the dollar and boost exports. But that’s not what helped him get elected.

US Dollar Index courtesy of Stockcharts.Com, annotations by Mish

Conflicting Dollar Goals

It’s impossible to get what you want when you have conflicting goals.

Inflation was a key reason Trump won the election. In isolation, a weak dollar would help exports, but at the expense of rising inflation.

Tariffs are a tax on consumers and will slow the economy. Trump wants a strong economy.

Also, countries retaliate against tariffs which does not help exports. Nor does rising anti-US sentiment, especially in Canada.

Conflicting Interest Rate Policy

Trump wants the Fed to cut interest rates. That would weaken the dollar, but tend to cause yields on the long end of the interest rate curve to rise.

Mortgage rates would rise. Housing is already in the gutter. Factor in tariffs on lumber, and steel framing.

Slow Economy or a Strong Economy

The Census Department reports two new records trade deficits in January.

Balance of trade data from the Census department, chart by Mish.

A slowing economy would reduce imports, but Trump does not want a recession. And improvements in trade balances during recession are fleeting anyway.

What About BRICS and the Reserve Currency?

On February 13, Reuters reported Trump warns BRICS Nations Could Face 100% Tariffs.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that BRICS nations could face 100% tariffs from the United States “if they want to play games with the dollar.”

“If any trading gets through, it’ll be 100% tariff, at least,” he said in response to a question about the BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India and China – setting up their own currency.

Ridiculous for Four Reasons

1. Reserve currency status strengthens the currency of the reserve nation, but Trump wants a weak currency.

2. No nation other than the US really wants to have reserve currency status because it is both an advantage and a curse, and no one wants the curse.

3. No nation is in position to challenge the US dollar because no nation other than the US qualifies for reserve currency.

4. Trump fails to understand that trade is between individual, not nations.

The Reserve Currency Curse

Points one and two are related. A Q& A will explain.

Q: Why do foreign central banks hold US dollar reserves?
A: The US runs a trade deficit. The foreign exporters receive US dollars, but those exporters need local dollars for purchases. In China, the Chinese exporters trade the dollars for yuan, and the central banks accumulate dollars as a result.

For all its moaning, China does not really want to have reserve currency status because it would mean the end of its export mercantilism. Germany is in the same position.

What Would it Take for a BRIC-Based Currency to Succeed?

Regarding point three above, please consider What Would it Take for a BRIC-Based Currency to Succeed?

Lost in the hype over nations clamoring to join the BRICS block is a question I have not seen anyone address.

What Would it Take for the “Brick” to Succeed?

1. The Brick would need to float freely. The yuan doesn’t.
2. The Brick have to be a genuine reserve currency to achieve widespread use.
3. A functioning Brick-based bond market. This requirement is also for widespread use.
4. A significant desire by individuals to trade in Bricks and accept Bricks rather than local currencies or the dollar.
5. Willingness of China to stop export mercantilism.
6. No capital controls.

Note that the Euro fails because there is no central asset, no Eurobonds. There are German bonds, Italian bonds, French bonds. etc, all with different interest rates and liquidity.

Trade is Between Individuals, Not Nations

Fundamentally, trade is not between nations.

Aggregate reporting of trade deficits such as the persistent US deficit with China, makes it appear otherwise. But the deficit is really a result of a sum of individual transactions.

For example, you or I go to a store and buy a tool at Home Depot. More likely than not, it’s made in China. A Toyota may be assembled in the US or Mexico with parts from Japan, China, or Mexico.

Taking a step back, the intermediate buyer, say Home Depot, makes big orders with various Chinese manufacturers.

The same applies to a Brazilian Store Owner (BSO) dealing with China.

To place its order with a Chinese merchant, the BSO would need to convert Brazilian currency to Bricks, place an order with a Chinese Manufacture willing to accept Bricks, then the Bank of China would swap Yuan for the Bricks and then what?

What precisely does the Bank of China do with all the Bricks it is accumulating given that Bricks are a trading currency, not a reserve currency?

Are there any Brick bonds? No, because the Brick only a trading currency.

There is no Brick-based bond market and thus no way to collect interest holding Bricks. There is an increasing lack of trust in dollars, but no reason to have any faith at all in the Brick.

Also see BRICS+ Is Forecast to Dominate the World’s GDP, But What Does That Mean?

Here’s a major irony. If and when the “Brick” succeeded as a reserve currency, US deficits would shrink. But there is no chance of that for reasons stated.

Trump and Secretary of Treasury Bessent Discuss the “Detox Recession”

On March 10, I noted Trump and Secretary of Treasury Bessent Discuss the “Detox Recession”

Don’t worry, it’s just a little more pain and inflation disturbance before tariff greatness begins.

Economy Could Be ‘Starting to Roll a Little Bit’

On Squawk Box, Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Economy Could Be ‘Starting to Roll a Little Bit’

And Trump Declines to Rule Out Recession.

Lutnick vs Trump

“There’s going to be no recession in America,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Meet the Press on NBC News.

Somehow Trump and Bessent did not get the message from Lutnick.

Hoot of the Day: House Republicans Suddenly Like Clean Energy Tax Breaks

On March 14, I commented Hoot of the Day: House Republicans Suddenly Like Clean Energy Tax Breaks

21 House Republicans now like Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act incentives.

One way to get a weaker dollar is for the US to run huge budget deficits and for the Fed to not follow through with interest rate hikes.

But that conflicts with Trump’s promise to balance the budget. And balancing the budget would strengthen the dollar.

Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget

On March 12, I commented Lutnick Says Tariffs Can Eliminate the IRS and Balance the Budget

Lutnick: “We’re going to make the External Revenue Service replace the Internal Revenue Service.”

I ran the math on that ludicrous idea. Team Trump only needs to bring in $7 trillion in tariffs on $3.3 trillion in total imports.

Then we need to faithfully collect 200 percent tariffs on everything with of no trade frictions, no retaliations, and full compliance.

See above link for detailed analysis.

Trumperland Miracles

Trump simultaneously promotes a strong and weak dollar, and proposes we collect huge tariffs while reducing imports.

We will allegedly balance the budget by running huge deficits while having a Detox recession and not having recession.

In Trumperland, contradictions have no meaning, so this is entirely possible.

Iran has responded to weekend warnings and threats issued by US President Donald Trump, who ordered two waves of weekend airstrikes against its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis (Ansarallah).

The commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, vowed Sunday that Iran would respond “decisively” to any threat or act of aggression from the United States. “Iran will never be the initiator of war, but in the event of a threat, the response will be firm, decisive, and conclusive,” Salami was quoted in Iran’s PressTV as saying.

Washington has for years assumed that every action from the Houthis has Iran’s hidden hand behind it. But the IRGC’s Salami rejected that notion, saying that the Ansarallah movement acts independently.

“The president of the United States has once again attributed the operations carried out by Yemen’s Ansar Allah to Iran and has warned the Iranian people to stop their support for the resistance group,” he said of Trump’s recent words. “Iran openly and clearly accepts responsibility for any actions it takes, when and where they occur,” he said.

“We are not a nation that operates under the cloak of secrecy; rather, we are a legitimate and globally recognized entity,” the IRGC general added. “When we undertake any military action or lend our support, we will declare it openly and unequivocally.”

The United States’ Saturday strike on Yemen not only resulted in possibly dozens of civilian deaths, but a reported over 100 injured, as President Trump vowed to “use overwhelming lethal force” while warning Iran to “immediately” cut its support.

“Your time is up, and your attacks must stop, starting today. If they don’t, hell will rain down upon you like nothing you have ever seen before,” the president had said on Truth Social.

“No terrorist force will stop American commercial and naval vessels from freely sailing the Waterways of the World.” That’s when he had put Iran on notice, saying it will be held “fully accountable” for any aggression of its proxy in Yemen.

On Sunday, the Houthis declared said they launched 18 missiles and a drone at the “aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman and its accompanying warships” in the Red Sea. They followed by saying a second salvo was launched, but the Pentagon said nothing came close to hitting US warships, and any threat was intercepted.

The Islamic Republic has long been suspected of being the supplier of sophisticated ballistic missiles and drones with long ranges to the Houthis. This especially ramped up in the wake of the 2015 war involving the Saudi-UAE-US coalition bombing campaign over Yemen, which lasted half-a-decade or more. Some of these Iran-made ballistic missiles and drones have hit Saudi oil facilities in past years.

Regarding US activity in Yemen: I recently said to watch for a new military engagement to compensate for the pull back in Ukraine. The Military Industrial Complex demands about $50 billion a year from our government, above and beyond what’s necessary to defend our own country. https://t.co/uoMjYIi2Xg

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) March 16, 2025

Below is some fresh commentary from AntiWar.com’s Dave DeCamp…

I get why people who don’t know much about the situation in Yemen might think it’s a good idea to bomb the Houthis to secure shipping lanes. Here are a few reasons why it’s a bad idea:

• The Houthis (Ansar Allah) are incredibly resilient and have survived much worse than just a bombing campaign (US-backed Saudi/UAE war from 2015-2022)
• Previous airstrikes against them only escalated their attacks and led to a bigger disruption of shipping
• The Houthis aren’t pirates; they’re enforcing a blockade in response to Israel’s blockade on Gaza – After the Gaza ceasefire deal was reached, the Houthis stopped their attacks
• The Houthis haven’t actually restarted attacks; they only announced they would be re-inforcing the blockade on Israeli shipping in response to Israel violating the ceasefire deal

DeCamp concludes with, “The US could have kept the situation in the Red Sea calm by forcing Israel to fully implement the Gaza ceasefire deal. This could have been done by leveraging military aid, but instead Trump chose to pour gasoline on the situation.”

Despite all the leftist and mainstream media wailing and gnashing of teeth about the new administration, fresh polling from two major mainstream news outlets paints a truly bleak picture for Democrats and a relatively rosy one for President Trump. 

In the most striking read on the pulse of America, the Democratic Party’s favorability rating has collapsed by a whopping 20 percentage points in just four years, and now stands at just 29%, according to CNN. That’s the lowest in the history of CNN’s poll, which goes back to 1992.  NBC News had a similar reading: 27% positive against 55% negative. “In more than 30 years of this poll, we’ve never seen either party hit a number this low, in terms of negatives,” said NBC’s Steve Kornacki.    

While it’s different in degree, the dissatisfaction extends to Democrats themselves. Only 63% of Democrats and Dem-leaning independents view their own party favorably, and 52% say leaders are taking the party in the wrong direction. That compares to 79% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who give a thumbs-up to the GOP. 

The sense that the Democratic Party is adrift is further reinforced by Democrats’ lack of any consensus whatsoever about who “best reflects the core values” of the party. More than 30% drew a complete blank, while the top three people named by respondents were Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10%), failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris (9%) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (8%). 

Like I said, the Democrats have a problem.
—
New NBC News poll: Democratic Party hits record polling low

Just 7% of registered voters have a “very” positive of the Democrat Party, 27% say they have “positive” views of the party

Trump has 47% job approval rating, up 7 points… https://t.co/wCHStJ69iS pic.twitter.com/idYm0iA27U

— Prodigal (@ProdigalThe3rd) March 16, 2025

Readings for Republicans are much better. With the GOP now in control of the White House, Senate and House of Represntatives, NBC News found 44% of registered voters think America is heading in the right direction — the highest it’s been since early 2004.  

As Democrats hit a record-low in approval rating, Trump his tied his career-high approval rating, with 47% of registered voters content with his performance. That still leaves him with a net-negative, as 51% disapprove. That’s lower than any of his four predecessors at this point in their terms, but higher than the 40% approval rating Trump posted in 2017. Then, only 50% of Republicans viewed Trump “very positively.” That number has soared to 74% in this month’s NBC poll. 

Americans are coming around to Trump’s approach to handling border security and immigration, with 55% approving and 43% disapproving. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has a net-positive approval rating, with 46% saying it’s a “good idea” compared to 40% who say it’s a “bad idea.” There’s a major split about the future of DOGE: 33% say there’s “much more to be done” while 33% say it’s “reckless and should stop now.” Elon Musk has a 51% negative-feelings rate, compared to 39% who feel positive about him.  

In a major departure from all of his previous readings, Trump is in the red on his handling of the economy (54% disapprove, 44% approve) and the cost of living (55% disapprove, 42% approve). An overwhelming 82% of voters say the state of the economy is fair or poor, with just 18% calling it excellent. Trump is likewise underwater on foreign policy and the Russia/Ukraine war.  

Affirm Holdings shares tumbled in New York after CNBC reported that Swedish fintech rival Klarna will now be Walmart’s sole provider of “buy now, pay later” loans in the United States. That’s a negative for Affirm, which announced a BNPL partnership with Walmart in 2019. 

Klarna wrote in a press release earlier that “it will be partnering with OnePay, a leading consumer finance app, to exclusively offer installment loans for purchases at Walmart in the United States.” 

Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski called the deal a “game changer,” adding that it gives its AI-powered payments and commerce network platform massive access to millions of customers and a new avenue of expansion nationwide. 

Klarna’s exclusive BNPL partnership with Walmart comes just days after the company filed an initial public offering prospectus and will test the IPO market that has been ice-cold for the last few years.

Bloomberg provided more color about Klarna’s financials:

The Stockholm-founded digital payments company’s revenue climbed 24% last year. Klarna had net income of $21 million on revenue of $2.81 billion for 2024, according to its filing Friday with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The company has amassed 85 million customers around the world and 600,000 retail partners.

The deal is a big blow to Affirm. Traders dumped company shares, down 12% in New York in the first 15 minutes of trading, pushing shares into a bear market (-26% YTD).

Klarna will provide BNPL loans to Walmart customers at a time when Goldman Sachs has declared the big-box retailer the winner of the value wars among retailers.

It’s not like it ever gets quiet any more, but this week will be especially busy week for central bank watchers with decisions due from the Fed, the BoJ (both Wednesday) and the BoE (Thursday), amongst others. Economic data highlights include retail sales in the US (today, which came in mixed), various US housing data, labor market stats in the UK (tomorrow) and inflation in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). 

After we had the white smoke of a deal on Friday, the spotlight will be on the vote around the huge proposed fiscal expansion in Germany. The Bundestag and the Bundesrat are expected to hold votes tomorrow and Friday, respectively, before the new Bundestag sits from March 25. We’ll preview these below. Note that overnight Trump has said he’ll speak to Putin tomorrow so that’s another thing to watch

The full day by day week ahead is at the end as usual but let’s preview a few of the key events. 

First, the Fed is widely expected to stay on hold on Wednesday. In their preview, DB economists still expect limited guidance about the policy path ahead given all the extreme uncertainty. The statement is likely to announce a pause in QT beginning in April, and forward guidance indicating that QT is expected to resume once the debt ceiling is resolved and the liability composition of the balance sheet normalizes. There are risks that a slowing is announced rather than a pause. The economists also expect the SEP to maintain two rate cut dots this year but with an upward drift in individual dots that could push the median dot to one cut as a risk. The economic projections will likely show higher inflation, somewhat weaker growth, and an unchanged forecast for the unemployment rate this year. Last week’s inflation data looked softer on the surface but still point towards another strong core PCE print. Today’s retail sales are the last piece of data influencing the Fed, although printing inconclusive (miss on headline, big beat on control group), they won’t be a huge help to markets.

According to Goldman, rates will not be the focus during the FOMC meeting as consensus/market pricing are firmly on no rate change with Fed indicating no hurry to cut until policy changes under the new administration become less volatile and uncertain and the outlook becomes clearer. Goldman economists believe that the Fed leadership would prefer for the median 2025 dot to continue to show two cuts this year to avoid adding to recent market turbulence but also see 2026 and 2027 median dots to remain unchanged, implying a path of 3.875% / 3.375% / 3.125% over 2025 / 2026 / 2027, though with higher means each year than last time. Finally, Goldman expects the FOMC’s median economic projections to show a 0.3% upward revision to 2025 core PCE inflation to 2.8% and a 0.3% downgrade to 2025 GDP growth to 1.8%, mainly reflecting the tariff news.

In terms of Germany, this week will be a landmark one with votes on the deal in the Bundestag tomorrow and the Bundesrat on Friday. With the deal agreed on Friday the bulk of the execution risk has been averted. Assuming it goes through, which must be now over 95% probability-wise according to DB’s Jim Reid, this could lead to a fiscal stimulus of 3-4% of GDP by 2027 at the latest. So as DB says, don’t underestimate how huge this package is. That said there are still risks both in terms of the vote and the constitutional court ruling around whether not enough time was provided to scrutinize the deal. However the legislation is covered by less than 20 pages of text, so the legal risk here is low. Reid notes that in his view markets have fully caught up to how much of a game changer this will be for Germany over the next few years. Longer-term, Germany should use this period to embark on significant structural reform. Hopefully the comfort of higher growth towards the latter part of this decade won’t reduce the likelihood of this.

Back to central banks, the BoJ is expected to keep rates steady and the current monetary policy framework maintained on Wednesday. For the BoE, our UK economist expects the BoE to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.5%.

In geopolitics, the Trump/Putin call on Tuesday could be a prelude to a ceasefire accord.

In micro, the NVDA GTC event will be a focus this week with the Jensen’s Keynote late on Tuesday. Also have earnings from FDX, NKE and MU on Thursday.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 17

• Data: US February retail sales, March Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, January business inventories, China February home prices, industrial production, property investment, retail sales, Canada February existing home sales, housing starts, January international securities transactions

Tuesday March 18

• Data: US February industrial production, capacity utilisation, building permits, housing starts, import and export price index, March New York Fed services business activity, Japan January core machine orders, Tertiary industry index, February trade balance, Germany March Zew survey, Italy January trade balance, Eurozone March Zew survey, January trade balance, Canada February CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Rehn and Escriva speak
• Earnings: Xiaomi, XPeng
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Wednesday March 19

• Data: US January total net TIC flows, Japan January capacity utilisation, Eurozone Q4 labour costs, New Zealand Q4 GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoJ’s decision, ECB’s Villeroy, Centeno, Guindos and Elderson speak
• Earnings: Vonovia, Tencent, Ping An Insurance, General Mills

Thursday March 20

• Data: US Q4 current account balance, March Philadelphia Fed business outlook, February leading index, existing home sales, initial jobless claims, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, UK January average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, February jobless claims change, Japan February national CPI, Germany February PPI, Eurozone January construction output, Canada February industrial product price index, raw materials price index, Australia February labour force survey
• Central banks: BoE’s decision, Riskbank decision, SNB decision, ECB published economic bulletin, Lagarde, Lane and Villeroy speak
• Earnings: Nike, FedEx, Micron, Lennar, RWE, Accenture, PDD Holdings
• Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS (reopening, $18bn)
• Other: European Council meeting, through March 21

Friday March 21

• Data: UK March GfK consumer confidence, February public finances, France March manufacturing confidence, February retail sales, Italy January current account balance, ECB January current account, Eurozone March consumer confidence, Canada January retail sales
• Central banks: Fed’s Williams speaks, ECB’s Escriva speaks
• Earnings : Meituan, Carnival, Nio

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report on Monday and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. The March FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech on Friday.

Monday, March 17

• 08:30 AM Retail sales, February (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.9%); Retail sales ex-auto, February (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.4%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.5%); Core retail sales, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.8%): We estimate core retail sales expanded 0.5% in February (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting continued growth in measures of card spending and payback for a particularly weak January reading but a slight drag from colder-than-usual weather. We estimate a 0.7% increase in headline retail sales, reflecting higher auto sales and gasoline prices.
• 08:30 AM Empire manufacturing index, March (consensus -2.0, last +5.7)
• 10:00 AM Business inventories, January (consensus +0.3%, last -0.2%)
• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, March (consensus 42, last 42)

Tuesday, March 18

• 8:30 AM Housing starts, February (GS +2.0%, consensus +1.1%, last -9.8%); Building permits, February (consensus -1.6%, last -0.6%)
• 08:30 AM Import price index, February (consensus -0.1%, last +0.3%)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, February (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.5%); Manufacturing production, February (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); Capacity utilization, February (GS 77.8%, consensus 77.8%, last 77.8%):  We estimate industrial production increased +0.2%, reflecting a rebound in auto manufacturing and another month of strong utilities production due to increased demand for heating as a result of colder-than-usual temperatures. We estimate capacity utilization remained at 77.8%.

Wednesday, March 19

• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, March 18 – March 19 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to reiterate that it is not in a hurry to deliver further interest rate cuts and intends to remain on the sidelines until policy changes under the new administration become less volatile and uncertain and the outlook becomes clearer. While we expect FOMC participants to rethink their projections now that the first tariffs have taken effect and further tariff increases look likely, we suspect that the Fed leadership would nevertheless prefer for the median 2025 dot to continue to show two cuts this year to avoid adding to recent market turbulence. We also expect the 2026 and 2027 median dots to remain unchanged, implying a path of 3.875% / 3.375% / 3.125% over 2025 / 2026 / 2027, though with higher means each year than last time. The longer-run or neutral rate projection might continue to creep higher from 3% to 3.125%. We expect the FOMC’s median economic projections to show a 0.3pp upward revision to 2025 core PCE inflation to 2.8% and a 0.3pp downgrade to 2025 GDP growth to 1.8%, mainly reflecting the tariff news.

Thursday, March 20

• 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q4 (consensus -$330.0bn, last -$310.9bn); 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 15 (GS 215k, consensus 224k, last 220k):  Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 8 (consensus 1,888k, last 1,870k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, March (GS flat, consensus 8.0, last 18.1)
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, February (GS +2.0%, consensus -3.4%, last -3.9%) 

Friday, March 21

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 09:05 AM New York Fed President John Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver a keynote address at a conference in Nassau, Bahamas. Text and Q&A are expected. On March 4th, President Williams said he thought “the current stance of policy is good” and that he did not “see any need to change it right away.” Williams also noted that he “factor[s] in some effects of tariffs now on inflation because I think we will see some of those effects later this year,” and that he will “be watching carefully … [how] this is affecting consumer confidence, business confidence, the uncertainty around this and the effects on economic activity, employment, and things like that.”

Source: DB, Goldman

At a moment British prime minister Kier Starmer is busy trying to form a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine, and to enforce any future peace agreement “on the land, at sea, and in the sky” – Russia is asserting its clear rejection of any plan which sends Western troops to Ukrainian soil under the guise of ‘peacekeeping forces’. France’s Macron has also been firmly behind Starmer’s efforts.

Former Russian president and current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has warned that any deployment of “peacekeepers” from NATO member states would trigger all-out war, and that Moscow will respond as such.

In a post on X on Sunday, Medvedev, charged that Starmer and Macron are “playing dumb” in seeking to advance their plans. “Time and again they are told that peacekeepers must be from non-NATO states. No, we will send tens of thousands – just lay it out – you want to give military aid to the neo-Nazis in Kiev,” Medvedev wrote.

“That means war with NATO. Consult with Trump, scumbags,” he concluded.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also in prior statements presented the same position, saying Western boots on the ground as ‘peacekeepers’ would be tantamount to the “direct, official, undisguised involvement of NATO countries in the war against Russia.”

Medvedev’s words stating that the European allies must consult with Trump is in acknowledgement of the reality that any Western peacekeeping force would realistically have to have the backing of the United States. Some European leaders appear to be willing to test going it alone, however.

For example, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told DR radio on Monday that “if it comes to the point where a European presence is needed for a ceasefire or peace agreement to be reached, then Denmark is in principle prepared for that.”

Interesting post from Medvedev, which may be hinting at peacekeepers (non-NATO) in the future?
“Time and again they are told that peacekeepers must be from non-NATO states.” pic.twitter.com/2D9H7vIb4I

— Alex Christoforou (@AXChristoforou) March 16, 2025

The UK’s Starmer had said over the weekend, “We will accelerate our military support [to Ukraine], tighten our sanctions on Russia’s revenues, and continue to explore all lawful routes to ensure that Russia pays for the damage it has done to Ukraine.”

Clearly all of this is hawkish Britain trying to fill the prior role of Washington under the Biden administration, now that Trump is stepping back support and strongly leaning on Zelensky to quickly achieve peace with Russia.

By Benjamin Picton, Senior strategist at Rabobank

Let Them Eat Flatscreens

Speaking to NBC’s ‘Meet the Press’ on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that US stocks experiencing a correction is “healthy”. Naturally, this statement caused some alarm for many Wall Street types who had been counting on Bessent to be the second Trump administration’s ‘voice of reason’ on economic policy, tempering some of the President’s more hawkish instincts on trade and throwing fresh liquidity bones to financial markets whenever they showed signs of wobbling.

Markets might have been hoping that the first Trump administration’s fixation on the stock market as a barometer of administrative success would carry over into a second term, but it now  appears that that is not the case. Trump himself has suggested in euphemistic fashion that the economy will be in for a “little bit of an adjustment” in the months ahead, and Bessent says that the economy needs to “detox” itself from government spending. Unfortunately, detox programs are usually characterised by nasty withdrawal symptoms for the patient (See “Is Trump Trying To Push The US Into A Recession?”).

As we warned in late November, the view that Bessent would be a source of internal dissent for the Trump economic agenda always carried a whiff of wishful thinking. Bessent’s CV (heavy on economic history and big picture thinking) and his statement that he wanted to be involved in the “grand global economic reordering” were clear signs that he did not intend to be a do-nothing  pick for Treasury Secretary. Indeed, despite (or perhaps because of?) his background as a macro hedge fund manager he appears to be much more interested in strategic questions of ‘who makes what? where? and for what purpose?’ than the day-to-day movements of market indices. 

Bessent last week articulated the ideological underpinnings of the Trump economic agenda as clearly as anyone when he said that “access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American Dream.” This is a landmark statement, because access to cheap consumption goods has been the essence of the American dream since the 1950s at least and America’s role as consumer of last resort for foreign surplus has been one of the enduring linchpins of the post-WWII economic system. The rise of China – a nation that does not share American values – and the structural imbalances created by suspected state-subsidized overproduction means that this model is now past its use-by date. Thus, a new model is being adopted to safeguard US pre-eminence in world affairs.

Bessent: “The American dream is not “let them eat flat screens.” That if American families aren’t able to afford a home, don’t believe that their children will do better than they are, the American dream is not contingent on cheap baubles from China, that it is more than that.… https://t.co/YmzIV71th9

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 16, 2025

Markets seemingly interpreted this “grand economic reordering” not as an abandonment of the post WWII model (which no longer serves the interests of the United States), but a doubling-down on the policies of the post-2008 malaise where US institutions magicked up new liquidity to bid up asset prices and make rich people richer. The hope was that the ensuing wealth effect would spur consumption spending and that prosperity would resume while addressing structural imbalances could be addressed piecemeal or put off for another day. This is no longer the game being played. As Bessent said in a recent interview with CNBC: “the bottom 50 percent of working Americans have gotten killed. We are trying to address that.”

In a nutshell, what is now happening is that the United States is aiming to confront and contain the rise of an ideological challenger – China – by mirroring its trade practises back to it. Bessent says that trade has been free, but it has not been fair. He says that reciprocal tariffs will force US trading partners to give the USA the same access to their markets that they have to the US market, and that he expects the 20% tariffs on China exports to be “eaten” by Chinese firms as they seek to offload their enormous exportable surplus into the world’s largest consumer market.

In short, ‘Make America Great Again’ means putting the focus squarely on production while consumption is emphasized only to the extent that the reduced importance of the globalized and financialized sectors of the economy is seen as a way to rebuild the American blue-collar middle class (J.D. Vance’s people) and close the consumption gap between the rich and the poor. Comparative advantage and economic efficiency are being de-emphasised. Security of supply chains is being re-emphasized. None of this is to be found in any orthodox economic textbook because it is not productivity-enhancing or GDP optimal under spurious assumptions of free markets where nobody cheats.

As has long been the case with China, the United States now wants to sell to you, but they do not want to buy from you unless they have no domestic alternative. Consequently, the MAGA program is effectively promising to make America stronger and to make Americans better off in the long run by delivering them real reductions in living standards via higher prices for consumer goods in the here and now. Bessent says that consumers will be insulated by a strong Dollar and a willingness from Chinese firms to simply carry the cost, but what if they aren’t? If Kennedy’s America was willing to “pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship… to assure the survival and success of liberty”, so is Trump’s. 

In an ironic twist, reports emerged from the Xinhua news agency over the weekend that the Chinese government is set to announce fresh economic measures that may shift the Chinese economy to be more consumption based as it seeks to respond to US tariff pressure on the trade channel by boosting demand growth through other channels. So, while the American Dream may no longer consist of access to cheap consumption goods, suddenly it seems that the Chinese Dream might.

New measures are set to include efforts to stabilise equity and real estate markets (figures for January released today show further sharp falls in Chinese real estate prices), pro-natalist policies to increase China’s birth rate, subsidies for childcare, more generous pensions and healthcare support, and efforts to boost local tourism. The calculus seems to be that the construction of a more generous welfare state in China will lead to a lower household savings rate (what does that mean for interest rates?) and a rebalancing of economic activity towards consumption, just as it did in the West.

Further details of the plan are set to be released today, but China faces strong economic headwinds. 

• First, China has set itself a CPI target of 2% in 2025, but has been struggling against deflation for months and prices actually fell by 0.7% in the year to February. Deflation increases the real value of debt over time, which is a problem given the heavy debt loads of Chinese local governments. To combat disinflation and spur consumption activity China plans to run its largest fiscal deficit since 1994 this year (4% of GDP) and the PBOC will set ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy, its most accommodative monetary stance in 14 years.
• The second headwind to a more consumption-oriented Chinese economy is ideological. Xi Xinping is reportedly not a great believer in consumption-driven economics because he views it as decadent and Western. Marxist economics favours real production.

This sets up an interesting dynamic where the leaders of China and the United States now agree that the importance of real production is the central thrust of Keynes’ dictum that “whatever we can do, we can afford.” By contrast, European policy makers are now slaying fiscal sacred cows by relaxing borrowing rules to fund rearmament, but all the Euros in the world will do little good (and might do some inflationary harm) if European industry lacks the capacity to actually produce the defence materiel that it is attempting to finance. This is now the central challenge for Europe.

None other than the far-right, nazi-saluting, goose-stepping advocates for freedom and secure borders – the AfD party – are the last thing standing between Germany’s so-called’ coalition of the status quo voting tomorrow for a massive debt package to fund its warmongering (and save the economy).

With one day left, the Alternative for Germany party has challenged the vote at the constitutional court, arguing the Bundestag had not given time for outside experts to scrutinize plans that lifted the euro and shares last week.

As Reuters reports, Independent lawmaker Joana Cotar also said she had filed a complaint in order to thwart Tuesday’s vote in parliament, while three lawmakers from the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) also plan petitions.

“The federal government has so far been unable to answer very simple and fundamental questions on this,” FDP finance expert Florian Toncar told dpa.

The parliamentary budget committee approved the plans on Sunday. 

The measures have already survived earlier legal challenges last week from the AfD and the Left party., but  this time yields are sliding a little – perhaps signaling there’s a chance AfD succeeds…

Merz cannot afford many defectors on Tuesday as his conservatives, SPD and Greens are set to clear the two thirds majority needed to pass constitutional amendments with just 30 votes to spare.

The urgency comes from a blend of taking advantage of a crisis of commitment from Trump to save Europeans at any cost and the ongoing collapse of the German economy…

“The German economy is stuck,” said Timo Wollmershaeuser, head of Ifo’s economic forecasts. 

“Despite a resurgence in purchasing power, consumer sentiment remains subdued, and companies are also reluctant to invest.”

The OECD cut its 2025 German growth forecast to 0.4% from 0.7% while the economy ministry in its monthly report flagged high levels of domestic and foreign policy uncertainty.

The ministry did, however, talk up the prospect of a “stabilising effect” if Merz’s plans succeeded.

“Stabilizing” is one word for hyperinflationary debt hell we guess…