Ole Doc Copper hasn’t done too well over the past 6-years, as it has created a series lower highs since 2011. Over the past 18-months, Doc has been attempting to create a series of higher lows in the chart below.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Copper appears to be creating these short-term higher lows inside of rising channel (1) and (2). Rising support channel (2) is being tested and short-term falling resistance is in play at (3), creating a short-term pennant pattern.
Below looks at Copper over the pat 30-years-
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Copper has spent the majority of the past 30-years, inside of rising channel (1), where support was hit 18-months ago and the series of higher lows got started. It has spent 100% of the past 6-years inside of falling channel (2).
For the past 6-years, Doc Copper has let down the bulls, as it has peaked at falling resistance, as resistance is resistance until broken. To send a positive message to the bulls, it needs to breakout of falling resistance at (3). If it does breakout, I will look to be a buyer. This is where Copper has peaked year after year, will it be different this time?
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In his opening statement this morning, fired FBI Director James Comey skipped the pleasantries and got straight to the point when he accused the Trump administration of defaming him and telling “lies, plain and simple.”
“And although the law required no reason at all to fire and FBI Director, the administration then chose to defame me, and more importantly the FBI, by saying that the organization was in disarray, that it was poorly run.”
“Those were lies, plain and simple.”
NBCNews: Comey on Trump’s explanation for firing: ‘Those were lies plain and simple’ https://t.co/ygud5JQ3yN
One day after the White House said it was “vindicated” by James Comey’s prepared remarks, saying that “the president is pleased that Mr. Comey has finally publicly confirmed his private reports that the President was not under investigation in any Russia probe”, moments ago AP reported that President Trump will dispute key parts of Comey’s testimony, s according to a person close to the president’s legal team.
According to AP, Trump will dispute Comey’s claim that he asked him for loyalty. Trump also disputes Comey’s account of a conversation about the investigation into former National Security Adviser Mike Flynn.
We are confident that this is just the beginning as moments ago while Comey admitted that Trump did not ask him to stop the Russia election probe, he did accuse the Trump administration of defaming him and the FBI and telling “lies.”
“The administration chose to defame me and more importantly, the FBI by saying that the organization was in disarray, that it was poorly run,” Comey said during the hearing.
Keep an eye on Trump’s twitter account as we doubt the president will be able to take 4 hours of this without unloading on his favorite social platform.
Even as the world’s attention turns to the Comey testimony for the next few hours, the Qatar diplomatic crisis (where CNN’s “report” of Russian hacking now appears long forgotten) continues, and moments ago a barrage of headlines from Qatar suggests that the small nation, which may or may not be preparing for military action, is happy to welcome the Turkish troops that will be arriving soon as reported yesterday, with its foreign minister stating that “we are not ready to surrender and will never compromise the independence of our foreign policy.” Also, and perhaps even more critically, Qatar – whose foreign minister is set to fly to Moscow on Saturday – also announced that Iran is ready to help with food and that three of Iran’s ports will be designated for use for Qatar.
From the wires:
QATAR FM SAYS IRAN SAID THEY ARE READY TO HELP QATAR WITH FOOD & 3 OF THEIR PORTS WILL BE DESIGNATED FOR QATAR: RTRS.
QATAR FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS WE ARE NOT READY TO SURRENDER AND WILL NEVER COMPROMISE THE INDEPENDENCE OF OUR FOREIGN POLICY: RTRS.
QATAR FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS TURKISH TROOPS COMING TO QATAR IS FOR THE SAKE OF THE SECURITY OF THE ENTIRE REGION: RTRS.
QATAR FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS WE RESPECT THE LNG AGREEMENTS WE HAVE SIGNED WITH THE UAE
QATAR FOREIGN MINISTER AL THANI: WE DON’T KNOW HOW THE RECONCILIATION WILL TAKE PLACE: BBG
There was a hint that Qatar can crippled its neighbor’s energy infrastructure:
QATAR FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS 40 PERCENT OF UAE POWER DEPENDS ON THE NATURAL GAS OF QATAR
As to the “ultimatum” issued by Saudi Arabia, and the demand list submitted by the Saudi coalition nations reported yesterday by the WSJ, Qatar appears to not have seen it yet.
QATAR FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS THERE ARE NO CLEAR DEMANDS YET, WE ARE WAITING FOR THAT
Meanwhile, Reuters on Thursday reconfirmed that Trump offered on Wednesday to help resolve a worsening diplomatic crisis between Qatar and other Arab powers as the United Arab Emirates invoked the possibility of an economic embargo on Doha over its alleged support of terrorism.
In his second intervention in the row in as many days, Trump urged action against terrorism in a call with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, a White House statement said.
“The President offered to help the parties resolve their differences, including through a meeting at the White House if necessary,” it said.
Trump, in a later call with Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahayan, called for unity among Gulf Arabs “but never at the expense of eliminating funding for radical extremism or defeating terrorism,” the White House said.
At the same time, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash told Reuters there would be more economic curbs on Qatar if necessary and said Doha needed to make ironclad commitments to change what critics say is a policy on funding Islamist militants. He later told France 24 television that any further steps could take the form of “a sort of embargo on Qatar”.
Gargash also told Reuters in an interview it would be very complex to disentangle the “very diverse” business ties between Qatar and its neighbors but suggested this might be necessary.
“You cannot rule out further measures. We hope that cooler heads will prevail, that wiser heads will prevail and we will not get to that.”
“Tensions are still high and mediation efforts by fellow Gulf Cooperation Council state Kuwait have yet to lead to a concrete solution, so investors will likely remain on edge,” said one Dubai-based trader.
We too hope that “cooler heads will prevail” and that the Qatar crisis does have a peaceful resolution, because the alternative – another Gulf military conflict – would make the daily news cycle, already overflowing with breaking news on an hourly basis, will become simply unbearable.
As the British head to the polls, London’s Trafalgar Square has been evacuated by armed police today as claims emerged that a ‘suspicious item’ had been found.
As The Mail reports, the popular tourist destination in Central London was cordoned off while the nearby Charing Cross Tube station was also closed.
A Metropolitan Police spokesman said: ‘Specialist officers are in attendance and cordons are in place. As a precaution Charing Cross train station has been closed.’
With leg 1 of "Terrible Thursday" out of the way (ECB stabilitee), and leg 2 (Comey testimony) just beginning, former FX trader and fund manager Richard Breslow expects the day to be a damp squib as the world has become completely conditioned to ignore any reality, buy-the-fucking-dip, and stick to the pre-determined narrative because, as he warns "no one is willing (or able) to change their minds on anything."
Via Bloomberg,
So, the eagerly anticipated Thursday has arrived. Waiting for bombshells, enlightenment or is it closure? Barring some black swan moment, you’re likely to be rewarded with none of the above. And it’s not that meaningful twists and turns can’t happen. Not even that consequential consequences won’t emerge. The problem is ours. No matter what we see and learn, no one is willing, nor is any longer able, to change their minds on anything.
As an investing community we pride ourselves on employing steely rationality. Constantly updating our Bayesian priors and developing revised and better informed forecasts. Ready to react on a moment’s notice has been replaced with “that’s my story and I’m sticking with it.”
Of course the build-up to today was all wrong. ECB President Draghiwas given two choices: keeping the status quo and promising more if needed, or confessing the German delegation has been right all along, the southern countries need to shape up and negative rates are a menace. That doesn’t leave him a lot of wiggle room.
[He came out] somewhere in the sensible middle, [and we're] right back where we were before and the debates about monetary policy, growth, inflation, structural reforms will proceed as if never interrupted. Watch EUR/USD at 1.12 and 1.13 to define the day.
James Comey’s testimony has been portrayed as the making or breaking of the current presidency. Total vindication or that Perry Mason moment when he tearfully breaks down under questioning, repudiates his opening statement and confesses all. No one listening in today is going to budge one inch in their appraisal of our state of affairs.
This is such a serious moment that a swath of Washington DC bars and restaurants are having early morning “Happy Hours” to watch the goings on. “More powdered sugar for my French toast, please, to counter my horror and dismay.” It’s what the word “unseemly” was invented for. But I guess it’s not any worse than oiling one of your guns to calm your nerves during the questioning. Still, to see how the day went, watch 10-year yields and USD/JPY.
And in the U.K., it’s hard to believe that any of the seminal issues facing the country will be resolved from the outcome. Will we wake tomorrow and say, now we know how the EU negotiations will go, declare income disparity on its way out, buy property in Birkenhead before it becomes the next Mayfair or witness Nicola Sturgeon asking for forgiveness? Same debates to continue. Keep it simple, any pound move outside of 1.2850 and 1.3050 against the dollar will tell the story.
Just as an experiment, after it’s all over try to come up with something new you learned. It’ll be a start. And then get keyed up for Friday’s wholesale inventories number.
Just minutes ahead of James Comey's testimony that many hope will lead to Trump impeachment, it appears someone decided it was an opportune time to dump $4 billion notional gold futures, seemingly confident this will not be a "constitutional crisis."
Over 30,000 contracts suddenly flushed ahead of Comey…
This move takes Gold back to the top of Payrolls day levels and still well above $1262 (50DMA) support levels.
While Trump may have flip-flopped on Qatar, no longer lashing out at the Gulf nation and instead offering to mediate a resolution of the crisis, the president’s attitude toward “the world’s top sponsor of terrorism” Saudi Arabia Iran remains, as evidenced by the purposefully undiplomatic statement issued on Wednesday in response to the deadly terrorist attack which took place earlier in the day in Tehran. Trump said he prayed for the victims of Wednesday’s attacks that were claimed by Islamic State, but added that “states that sponsor terrorism risk falling victim to the evil they promote.
Statement by the President on the Terrorist Attacks in Iran
We grieve and pray for the innocent victims of the terrorist attacks in Iran, and for the Iranian people, who are going through such challenging times. We underscore that states that sponsor terrorism risk falling victim to the evil they promote.
As one can imagine, Iran was not amused, and as Reuters reports this morning, the country’s foreign minister rejected Donald Trump’s condolences for deadly attacks in Tehran, calling the U.S. president’s words “repugnant.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
On his Twitter account, Mohammad Javad Zarif wrote: “Repugnant White House statement …. Iranian people reject such U.S. claims of friendship.”
Repugnant WH statement & Senate sanctions as Iranians counter terror backed by US clients.Iranian people reject such US claims of friendship
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard blamed the attack on Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. ally and the largest US weapons’ client. Saudi Arabia has denied any involvement and the Islamic State had claimed responsibility for the attacks.
At 10AM EST former FBI Director James Comey will make his first public appearance, since being fired by President Trump, as he provides testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee.
As we covered in detail last night, Comey provided the best ‘preview’ of today’s hearing when his opening statement was released yesterday afternoon. Undoubtedly, the focus of today’s hearing will come down to Comey’s testimony that Trump asked him to “let it go” in regards to the FBI’s Flynn investigation and repeatedly asked for Comey’s “loyalty.” Here are the key sections (as we noted here):
A few moments later, the President said, “I need loyalty, I expect loyalty.” I didn’t move, speak, or change my facial expression in any way during the awkward silence that followed. We simply looked at each other in silence. The conversation then moved on, but he returned to the subject near the end of our dinner.
The President then returned to the topic of Mike Flynn, saying, “He is a good guy and has been through a lot.” He repeated that Flynn hadn’t done anything wrong on his calls with the Russians, but had misled the Vice President. He then said, “I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy. I hope you can let this go.” I replied only that “he is a good guy.” (In fact, I had a positive experience dealing with Mike Flynn when he was a colleague as Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency at the beginning of my term at FBI.) I did not say I would “let this go.”
Of course, while Democrat Senators will inevitably try to force Comey to admit, at least in his opinion, that Trump “obstructed justice”, Charles Krauthammer did a masterful job of explaining exactly why that will never happen…primarily because it would mean that Comey himself would be guilty of a federal crime and subject to prison time.
Speaking with Fox’s Brett Baier, Krauthammer pointed out that Comey is masterful at protecting his own ass and would never slip up to the point of alleging outright obstruction because he would be “indicting himself for not resigning, for not making a statement, for not bringing it out in the open.”
“Here there is one question — did the president obstruct justice? That’s what everybody is waiting for. I don’t think there’s anything of great interest other than that.
And his answer I think is going to be obvious. He will navigate to a point where he says, ‘Well, there might’ve been some pressure but it’s not obstruction.’ Why? Because if it were obstruction, then he is indicting himself. For not resigning, for not making a statement, for not bringing it out in the open.
So he can’t say it’s obstruction which is what everybody who wants to see Trump destroyed is waiting to hear. So what we will hear is something navigating in between and saying ‘Well, it wasn’t really pressure, he was speaking on behalf of an associate, a friend. It could be interpreted in various ways.’ That’s what I think is going to happen and that’s why I think it’s going to be a bust.”
Forward to the 3:10 mark for the relevant Krauthammer commentary:
Of course, all eyes will also be watching how Trump decides to respond to Comey’s testimony. A couple of days ago, Robert Costa reported that the President planned to “live tweet” during the event:
I’m told by two WH sources that Pres. Trump does not plan to put down Twitter on Thursday. May live tweet if he feels the need to respond.
But, we suspect his legal team took some issue with that approach as it’s now being reported the Trump will watch the hearing from a White House dining room and will be surrounded by lawyers and advisors.
JUST IN: Senior WH aide tells @PeterAlexander Trump will monitor #Comey in a WH dining room with his legal team & some of closest advisers.
Finally, the last thing to watch is how the media responds. For days now CNN has been hyping today’s testimony as the greatest television event since the “Dallas” finale in 1991 and has even referred to it repeatedly as “Washington’s Super Bowl.”
Moreover, they have been repeatedly updating their audience, for several days we might add, on the 700 different ways they’ll be able to tune into the live hearing scheduled for later this week.
Beginning at 9:45 a.m. ET, live coverage of the testimony will be on CNN and streaming on CNN.com, the CNN app on phone and tablet, and on mobile devices. You can also watch it on your Apple TV, Roku, and Amazon Fire TV with the CNNgo app, CNN’s Facebook Page and via Apple News.
To say that CNN is excited for today’s hearing would be a bit of an understatement. Given that fact, we suspect that no matter what Comey says today the mainstream media has already decided the narrative they will push after today’s hearing has concluded…after all, they couldn’t possibly let their audience down if the most hyped event in CNN’s history turns out to be a “nothing burger.” Of course, one has to look no further than last night’s CNN coverage for evidence of how the post-Comey shows will spin the event…as most of the world, including equity markets, figured that Comey’s opening statement was a positive for Trump’s administration, CNN spent the night with guests talking about when impeachment proceedings should be started and why Trump was so concerned about Russian hookers.