Tag: finance

Earlier today the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released the first projected county-by-county map of Obamacare coverage for the 2018 plan year which depicts at least 47 counties, with 35,000 active Obamacare exchange participants, that will have no health insurance options next year.  Meanwhile, another 2.4 million people are expected to have only 1 option for coverage. Per CMS:

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is releasing a county-level map of 2018 projected Health Insurance Exchanges participation based on the known issuer participation public announcements through June 9, 2017. This map shows that insurance options on the Exchanges continue to disappear. Plan options are down from last year and, in some areas, Americans will have no coverage options on the Exchanges, based on the current data.

 

The CMS map displays point in time data and is expected to fluctuate as issuers continue to make announcements on exiting or entering specific states and counties. It currently shows that nationwide 47 counties are projected to have no insurers, meaning that Americans in these counties could be without coverage on the Exchanges for 2018. It’s also projected that as many as 1,200 counties – nearly 40% of counties nationwide – could have only one issuer in 2018. Currently, for 2018 at least 35,000 active Exchange participants live in the counties projected to be without coverage in 2018, and roughly 2.4 million Exchange participants are projected to have one issuer.  It’s expected that the number of consumers with no coverage choices will rise.

 

Of course, insurers are still in the process of determining which markets they’ll serve in 2018 so the map above could theoretically get much worse.  As our readers are acutely aware, the overwhelming trend has been toward more withdrawals rather than less.  Here are just a couple of our recent notes on the topic.

• Obamacare Implosion: Last Major Healthcare Provider Pulls Out Of Iowa Leaving No Options In 2018
• Aetna Abandons Obamacare Totally: See You In September?
• Largest U.S. Health Insurer Is Done With Obamacare: UnitedHealth To Exit Most State Exchanges

As CMS Administrator Seema Verma points out, CMS and insurance commissioners around the country are working to slow the collapse of Obamacare but unilateral actions are by no means a “long-term solution” for a system which has clearly failed.

“This is yet another failing report card for the Exchanges. The American people have fewer insurance choices and in some counties no choice at all. CMS is working with state departments of insurance and issuers to find ways to provide relief and help restore access to healthcare plans, but our actions are by no means a long-term solution to the problems we’re seeing with the Insurance Exchanges,” said CMS Administrator Seema Verma.

Meanwhile, as Credit Suisse analyst Scott Fidel points out today, Obamacare attrition levels continue to deteriorate year after year…which is probably not terribly surprising given the exponential premium increases.

Paid exchange members are down ~15% from 2017 OEP sign-ups: This afternoon the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released the February Effectuated Enrollment Snapshot. Effectuated enrollment (after premiums paid and any attrition) ended February at 10.3 million, or -15.4% below the 2017 Open Enrollment Period’s (OEP) ending number of plan selections of 12.2 mln. These attrition levels are slightly worse than the effectuated enrollment levels one-month following the 2016 and 2015 OEPs, which were down -12.6% (or -14.6% using revised 2016 data per below) and -12.8% respectively.

 

CMS provides updated & complete 2016 effectuated enrollment: In addition to the February 2017 data, CMS also provided updated and complete 2016 effectuated enrollment data. Recall, the prior administration stopped provided the quarterly effectuated enrollment updates after March 2016. As a result, we estimate that effectuated enrollment ended December 2016 at 9.1 mln, or -28.1% below the 2016 OEP ending plan selections of 12.7 mln. This attrition was worse than the 2015 effectuated enrollment at year-end which was 8.8 mln at December 2015, or -24.9% below the 2015 OEP plan selections of 11.7 mln.

Of course we suspect this stark reminder of the ‘health’ of the exchanges will have a minimal impact on Democrats who will continue to hail the ‘great accomplishments’ of Obamacare while the system literally, and quite tangibly, collapses in epic fashion all around them.  The ability to blindly and shamelessly support a partisan cause irrestpective of overwhelming facts proving the ineffectiveness of that cause is truly a talent reserved only for politicians.

via http://ift.tt/2sxslUE Tyler Durden

In the first episode of Stone’s hugely anticipated Showtime series, which aired Monday night, Russian President Vladimir Putin pulled no punches claiming US is to blame for the rise of Al-Qaeda and its late mastermind Osama bin Laden, which it empowered to fight Soviet troops in Afghanistan, adding that there is proof the CIA supported terrorists in Russia’s Chechnya.

“Al-Qaeda is not the result of our activities. This is the result of activities of our US friends. This all started in the times of the Soviet war in Afghanistan, when the US security services supported different movements of Islamic fundamentalism in their struggle against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan,” Putin told Stone, adding that the “US side has nurtured both Al-Qaeda and [Osama] bin Laden.”

 

“It always happens like this. Our US partners should have been aware of it. It is their fault,” Putin said.

Putin also had plenty to say about his rise to power and his relationship with "our American friends…" (as Axios reports)

His rise

On his career choice: "By job distribution I was obliged to go" into the KGB, "but I wanted to go there."

 

On his rise to power: Declined P.M. role when Yeltsin first offered it. "I told him that it was a great responsibility and that meant I would have to change my life, and I wasn't sure I wanted to do that." When he accepted, first thought was, "where to hide my children."

Life and death

On bad days: "I'm not a woman so I don't have bad days…. I'm not trying insult anyone, that's just the nature of things…. There are certain natural cycles, which men probably have as well, just less manifested…but you should never lose control."

 

On sleep: Putin says he always slept 6-7 hours a night, even in times of crisis, and doesn't have nightmares.

 

On death: "One day this will happen to each and every one of us. The question is, what we will have accomplished by then in this transient world, and whether we'll have enjoyed our life."

His interactions with the U.S.

On calling Bush after 9/11: "I certainly understood that heads of state need moral support at such times."

 

On anti-Russia rhetoric in U.S. presidential campaigns: After the election they tell Russia "don't pay too much attention to that," just posturing.

Russia before Putin

On Mikhail Gorbachev: He "didn't understand what changes were necessary and how to achieve them."

 

On Boris Yeltsin: "Just like any of us he had his problems, but he also had his strengths," including the ability to accept responsibility.

 

On the end of World War II: The Soviets gave the U.S. the excuse to create NATO and start the Cold War by acting "primitively."

 

On the collapse of the Soviet Union: "25 million Russians found themselves abroad in one night, and that was one of the greatest catastrophes of the 20th century."

Finally, the Russian president argued that the US has “got a false sense that it is able to do everything without any consequences,” in particular after the Soviet Union’s collapse.

“In such a situation, a man or a country begins to make mistakes… The state begins to function ineffectively. One mistake follows another. That is the trap in which, as I believe, the United States got caught into,” Putin reflected.

 

"I believe that if you think you are the only world power, trying to impose on the whole nation the idea of their exclusiveness, this creates an imperialistic mentality in society, which in turn requires an adequate foreign policy expected by society. And the country's leaders are forced to follow this logic. And in practice this might go contrary to the interest of the Americans…. It demonstrates it's impossible to control everything."

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Authored by Gregory Brew via OilPrice.com,

After a banner year for solar power installation in the United States, reports on the progress of solar power in the first quarter of 2017 have industry advocates hopeful that renewable energy will continue to grow throughout the year, despite competition from fossil fuels, U.S. government support for traditional energy sources and resistance towards cheap imported solar panels by domestic manufacturers.

The first months of 2017 saw 2 gigawatts of photovoltaic panels added, continuing a six-quarter streak and a huge boost in solar installations that came at the end of 2016, when more than 6 GWs were installed. The growth in Q1 of 2017 marks a slight decrease of 2 percent from the level last year, but it’s still indicative of an overall growth trend, as total additions have increased year on year since 2012, according to the Solar Market Insight Report.

Out of the 2 GWs added, about a quarter came in the form of rooftop panels added in the households segment, while utilities added the bulk of new production. The non-residential solar market has increased 29 percent year-on-year.

The growth comes as costs continue to fall. The report from the Solar Energy Industries Association indicated that for the first time, utility-scale costs for power fell below $1/Watt. Solar power accounted for 30 percent of total electricity capacity added in Q1, while natural gas came in at 41 percent and wind power 27 percent.

Solar now accounts for about 2 percent of total electricity generation in the U.S., behind wind power at 6 percent and natural gas at 34 percent.

Most of the projects currently adding new solar capacity were planned some years ago, and there is some speculation that continued growth in solar power will slow due to policies undertaken by the Trump Administration, a strong advocate for conventional oil and gas. Yet the SEIA estimates that 12.6 GWs of solar power will be added in 2017, a slight decrease from 2016 but a strong indicator of growth nonetheless.

While there is wariness on the part of the industry towards the attitude of the Trump Administration, including its decision to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement, the mood continues to be cautiously optimistic, according to a report from the Washington Post.

A potential challenge could come in the form of federal action against important solar panels.

Suniva, an Atlanta-based solar power manufacturer, has argued that imported panels at rock-bottom prices has cut into its bottom line and forced it to lay off hundreds of workers. In late May the U.S. government agreed to hear Suniva’s claims and is now mulling the possibility of a tariff on imported solar panels and modules.

Suniva filed for bankruptcy in April, and shortly thereafter applied for relief against imported competition. Such applications, filed under Section 201 of the 1974 Trade Act, are quite rare, yet the federal government has already indicated its willingness to hear the case. Should the International Trade Commission rule in favor of Suniva, prices on solar panels would return to 2012 levels, rendering many planned projects uneconomic and potentially dooming the growth of solar power in the United States.

The SEIA has come out against the case. The ITC has determined that Suniva’s grievances are representative of the entire solar industry, but SEIA has argued that this is not the case and that a ruling in Suniva’s favor would be disastrous for solar power.

A second manufacturer, SolarWorld, has joined Suniva in requesting a federal investigation of solar panel imports. Meanwhile, SQN Capital Management, Suniva’s chief creditor, has hinted that a buy-out of the company’s assets by Chinese solar panel manufacturers would settle the issue, allowing the company to rehire its former employees and remain in business.

The U.S. has alerted the World Trade Organization that it is considering tariffs against imported solar panels, with a ruling from the ITC likely to come by November 2017.

Such an act would be chiefly aimed at China, which leads the world in solar panel production and exports, and it would be an aggressive move from a federal government which has thus far utilized both protectionist rhetoric and attitudes decidedly hostile towards renewable energy.

It will take some months before the Suniva dispute has any impact. In the meantime, solar power will continue to grow in the United States, driven by low cost, high demand and rising interest in renewable energy.

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In his last interview as part of the Barron’s Roundtable, from which he is retiring at the end of the year after three decades of participation, Felix Zulauf, owner of Zug-based Zulauf Asset Management had some parting words of caution.

First, in his discussion of stocks, Zulauf said “markets exhibit the signs we usually see going into a peak. My trend and momentum indicators are still bullish, but excesses are building up as stocks and sectors move too far above their moving averages. Investor-sentiment readings are getting excessive. July or August could bring an important peak in stocks.”

Comparing to previous episodes of market exuberance, Zulauf said that “today seems like late 1999. We haven’t seen the peak yet. Much depends, as noted, on whether China continues its current policies. Either way, there is a window of vulnerability in the markets. I’m not talking about a 5% setback. It could be 20% from August to November.”

As a reminder, this is what late 1999 looked like, and how it is oddly similar to the S&P tech sector currently.

What could catalyze such a drop: “The popularity of passive investing could enhance the selloff. Once the quant models and algorithms change, models that have said buy, buy, buy for years suddenly say sell, sell, sell. This has nothing to do with the economy or fundamentals.”

Discussing how policy could affect markets, Zulauf believes that it will be up Trump to pass his much delayed fiscal program to push markets higher from here: “If the Trump administration doesn’t launch a stimulus program by early 2018, the Republicans could have big problems in the midterm elections. That’s why I think they’ll come up with a program. If so, it would probably drive the 10-year Treasury’s yield up to 3%, and the market would shift toward more cyclical and value stocks.”

Finally, here is his outlook on the near term:

I don’t. Investors should tighten risk-management strategies to their portfolios. I expect the FANG stocks and the Nasdaq to have a big selloff. They could easily fall 30% or 40%. But I don’t want to end my Roundtable career on a bearish note.  Once the bear market is over and the recession or economic crisis passes, stocks will go up again.

Of course they will, but what size will the Fed’s balance sheet be then?

* * *

Full interview excerpt, via Barrons.

Barron’s: You were presciently bullish about this year’s first half, Felix. What will the second half bring?

Zulauf: Although I am often labeled a bear, I predicted that the market would climb 10% into mid-year, and that is looking about right. Markets were helped by the political backdrop. The French elections went well, in that Marine Le Pen, who advocated France’s exit from the euro, was defeated. The next test in Europe will be Italy, which could hold a general election as soon as September. Italy is unlike the other countries in the euro zone; polls indicate that about half of the voters want to keep the euro. Only one political party is in favor of keeping the common currency. The others are against the euro.

How does the rest of the world look to you?

The world economy is growing at a slow pace. There is hoopla about accelerating growth here and there, but I don’t believe it. Europe had a growth spurt in the second half of last year, and everyone thought it would lead to much higher growth. I don’t see it. When you examine the figures closely, you see that momentum has already peaked.

The European economy will grow by 1% to 2%, and 2% is probably the trend in the U.S.

China is delivering 6.5% economic growth like clockwork, although China is slowing, and that is the key to what will happen in the second half and beyond. A few months ago, China appointed a new head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission to reform the financial sector. Reform means that China will have to squeeze out excessive leverage and systemic risks, and it can’t do that without doing some damage.

What sort of damage do you fear?

Right now, China has a mini credit crunch. It is the only country in the world with an inverted yield curve, and not because the central bank has tightened rates. It is because the system has tightened due to reforms. The shadow banking system has been squeezed, and the banking system is short of deposits, so there is a funding problem. The question is whether current policies will continue or ease ahead of the November meeting of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party.

If the policies continue, there will be a bigger credit squeeze and a continued slowdown in economic activity. If China’s economy slows, markets could have a big downside surprise in the second half. The vibrations would be felt worldwide, because China has been the growth engine of the world economy for the past eight years.

Technically, markets exhibit the signs we usually see going into a peak. My trend and momentum indicators are still bullish, but excesses are building up as stocks and sectors move too far above their moving averages. Investor-sentiment readings are getting excessive. July or August could bring an important peak in stocks.

Are you referring to U.S. stocks or stocks globally?

It could be worldwide, because all markets are extended. In the medium term, there could be a tremendous internal rotation, particularly in the U.S. The Trump reflation trade died earlier this year. Oversold sectors, such as financials, could bounce up. The FANG stocks and other e-commerce stocks that have led the bull market since 2009 are extended. They could have a correction. But after that correction, they could go even higher.

Markets are driven by global monetary excesses and algorithms. There has been a dramatic move into passive investing—buying indexes and sector ETFs and things like that. Passive investing is basically a bull-market strategy. The bigger the index weightings in those sorts of stocks, the more money flows into them. It is a self-fulfilling mechanism.

Today seems like late 1999. We haven’t seen the peak yet. Much depends, as noted, on whether China continues its current policies. Either way, there is a window of vulnerability in the markets. I’m not talking about a 5% setback. It could be 20% from August to November.

The popularity of passive investing could enhance the selloff. Once the quant models and algorithms change, models that have said buy, buy, buy for years suddenly say sell, sell, sell. This has nothing to do with the economy or fundamentals.

How should an investor behave in this environment?

If the Trump administration doesn’t launch a stimulus program by early 2018, the Republicans could have big problems in the midterm elections. That’s why I think they’ll come up with a program. If so, it would probably drive the 10-year Treasury’s yield up to 3%, and the market would shift toward more cyclical and value stocks.

Do you have any specific investment picks for the second half?

I don’t. Investors should tighten risk-management strategies to their portfolios. I expect the FANG stocks and the Nasdaq to have a big selloff. They could easily fall 30% or 40%. But I don’t want to end my Roundtable career on a bearish note. [Zulauf announced at the January Roundtable that he is “retiring” from the panel after this year.] Once the bear market is over and the recession or economic crisis passes, stocks will go up again.

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Confirming earlier concerns over performance, Citigroup CFO John Gerspach warned investors at a Morgan Stanley Conference this morning that Citi’s second quarter trading revenues would be down 12-13%.

 

Of course, none of that has anything to do with the stock price’s performance…

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The reassuring opening gap in Nasdaq stocks (especially FANG) has been decimated as selling pressure struck right as the tech index recovered its flash-crash loss…

Just as we warned, the machines ran out of squeeze ammo at the flash-crash ledge…

 

And the tech sector has given up its gains…

 

As FANGs turn red…

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As noted earlier, on Monday evening Christopher Ruddy, chief executive of the conservative news site and TV network Newsmax, caused a media uproar when he said during an interview on “PBS NewsHour” that Trump is thinking about firing special counsel Robert Mueller, the special counsel investigating Russian election interference.

As NBC noted last night, it is open to question how reliable Ruddy’s comments are. “He is often described as a close friend of Trump’s, and reporters spotted him leaving the White House on Monday. But a source familiar with the visit told NBC News that any meeting Ruddy was to have had with the president was postponed. Still, his remarks prompted this reply on Twitter from Rep. Adam Schiff of California, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, who said the committee would simply reappoint Mueller and then advised the president: “Don’t waste our time.”

So following up on that particular thread, moments ago Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, speaking at a Senate Appropriations Justice, Science and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on Tuesday said he has not seen “good cause” to fire Robert Mueller.

Rosenstein clarified that he has the authority to hire and fire Mueller, and not Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

“Have you seen good cause for firing Mueller?” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) asked Rosenstein.

“I have not,” he replied.

Senator Susan Collins pressed him on reports that the administration is considering firing Mueller, asking whether he would fire Mueller if President Trump ordered him to do so.

“I am not going to follow any orders unless I believe those are lawful and appropriate,” he said, explaining that under federal regulations, Mueller can only be fired for good cause and that reason would have to be put in writing. The deputy AG also said that Mueller may be fired “only for good cause and I am required to put that cause in writing.”

Dep. AG Rosenstein tells Senate committee he has not seen any evidence of good cause to fire special counsel Mueller https://t.co/QquKgp1w2B http://pic.twitter.com/oaGGxfk0xS

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) June 13, 2017

Meanwhile, aside from launching several angry tweets targeting “fake news” this morning without much context, Trump has yet to make a statement either way on his view toward Mueller.

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The S&P 500 has done well this year, up almost 8% as we approach the half way point of the year. Mid, Small and Micro caps can’t say the same performance wise, as each is lagging large caps so far this year. See chart below.

 

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Could small caps be in a position that they might be able to play a game of catch up with large caps or actually out perform? Below looks at patterns of Small and Mid Caps.

 

LICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Mid-Caps (MDY) and Small Caps (Russell 2000) at testing resistance of what looks to be bullish ascending triangles. This pattern two-thirds of the time results in higher prices. If they both would happen to breakout at (1), each could be attractive to buyers, which could push it higher.

With both of these lagging the broad market year to date, what each do at (1), could impact large caps. Humbly feel what these do at the top of this pattern, will become very important price action for them and large caps.

 

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM

Blog:  http://ift.tt/2nMNRyT

 

Questions: Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com or call us toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Last week Attorney General Jeff Sessions surprised everyone when he volunteered to offer his testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee on alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election.  As Sessions prepares to take the stand at 2:30PM EST, here are some of the things to watch for in his testimony:

1. Did the mysterious 3rd meeting with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak happen at the Mayflower Hotel?

After his public testimony last week, Comey allegedly said during a closed-door meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee, which promptly leaked to the media of course, that Sessions may have had an undisclosed third meeting with the Russian ambassador at the Mayflower Hotel after a Trump speech.  If the third meeting took place, it would contradict Sessions’s previous assertion that he only met twice with the Russian official during the presidential campaign — once at the Republican National Convention and a second time in his Senate office in September 2016.

According to The Hill, both the Justice Department and Sessions himself have denied that a 3rd, undisclosed meeting ever occurred.

The Justice Department has denied that the two talked, saying the “the then-senator did not have any private or side conversations with any Russian officials at the Mayflower Hotel.”

 

“I do not recall any discussions with the Russian ambassador, or any other representative of the Russian government, regarding the political campaign on these occasions or any other occasions,” Sessions wrote in a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

2. When/Why did Sessions make the decision to recuse himself?

Jeff Sessions has said that he began consulting with career department officials shortly after he was confirmed as Attorney General about stepping back from the Russian investigation, and that his decision was based solely on his status as a Trump campaign supporter. 

That said, former FBI Director Comey raised some suspicions last week when he testified that he expected Sessions to recuse himself earlier than he ultimately did.  Those suggestions have since resulted in wild media speculation over whether Comey was in possession of undisclosed information that would link Sessions directly to the Russian interference investigation.  Per The Hill:

Comey told lawmakers that the FBI had expected Sessions to step back from the investigation even before his recusal on March 2. He said the FBI knew of facts that would make it “problematic” for Sessions to oversee the probe.

 

“It’s pretty clear that Comey wanted to signal in his testimony information about Sessions that was pretty concerning,” said a GOP strategist.

 

It’s unclear what information Comey was referring to.

Of course, as we reported last week, Sessions’ decision to recuse himself came as a surprise to Trump and has caused a rift in their relationship which has apparently grown so strained that the AG offered to resign his post (see “AG Jeff Sessions Offered Resignation Amid Trump Tensions – Report“).

 

3. How involved was Sessions in the decision to fire James Comey?

The exact timing of when the decision was made to fire James Comey continues to be a bit of a mystery given that Trump’s story on the topic ‘evolved’ in the days following.  As such, senators will undoubtedly look for more information on what role both Sessions and deputy AG Rod Rosenstein played in that process.

4. Did Comey raise concerns with Sessions about meeting alone with Trump?

After his now infamous solo meeting with Trump in the oval office on February 14th, Comey testified last week that he subsequently went to Jeff Sessions to raise concerns about meeting with the President alone. 

“It can’t happen that you get kicked out of the room and the president talks to me,” Comey says he told Sessions, adding that the attorney general “didn’t say anything.”

That said, Sessions has refuted Comey’s version that meeting saying that he was not silent, but rather told Comey “the FBI and the Department of Justice needed to be careful about following appropriate policies.”

5. Will Republican senators stand by Sessions?

To state the obvious, Sessions was not the first pick for AG of pretty much any Democrat in the Senate and he was confirmed solely because he enjoyed fairly ubiqutous Republican support.  That said, the question today is whether he still enjoys that support.

6. Will John McCain be coherent today?

Last week, John McCain was bashed on social meeting after asking a completely illogical, and often incoherent, series of questions of Comey.  The blowback was so severe that McCain was forced to reply or take risk that his mental competence to serve might be called into question.  McCain subsequently blamed his awkward performance on staying up too late to watch the Arizona Diamondbacks game…lets hope McCain got some sleep last night.

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Rex Tillerson announced on Tuesday that North Korea has released Otto Warmbier, an American who was serving a 15 year jail sentence somewhere in the bowels of the hermit kingdom. The announcement came just hours after Dennis Rodman arrived in North Korea for an unexpected trip, as reported last night. Warmbier, a University of Virginia student from Cincinnati, was sentenced in March after a televised tearful public confession to trying to steal a propaganda banner.

First photo: Dennis Rodman arrives in North Korea for the 5th time. He wouldn't tell me if he's spoken to Trump or anyone from the US gov't. http://pic.twitter.com/aeEvEhkNwD

— Will Ripley (@willripleyCNN) June 13, 2017

“At the direction of the President, the Department of State has secured the release of Otto Warmbier from North Korea,” Tillerson said in a statement. “Mr. Warmbier is en route to the U.S. where he will be reunited with his family.”

What he really meant is that Dennis Rodman's unique style of "diplomacy" appears to have achieved what neither Tillerson himself, nor the previous administration had been capable of.

Tillerson's statement gave no other details and made no mention of Rodman’s visit. But it noted that the State Department is continuing “to have discussions” with North Korea about the release of other American citizens who are jailed there. The statement said the department would have no further comment on Warmbier, citing privacy concerns.

While Rodman had said he did not plan to raise the fate of the Americans while he was in North Korea, the timing is oddly coincidental and is likely a gesture of good will by Kim toward one of his favorite basketball players.

Previously, the U.S. government had condemned Warmbier's sentence and accused North Korea of using such American detainees as political pawns. The court held that Warmbier had committed a crime “pursuant to the U.S. government’s hostile policy toward (the North), in a bid to impair the unity of its people after entering it as a tourist.”

North Korea regularly accuses Washington and Seoul of sending spies to overthrow its government to enable the U.S.-backed South Korean government to take control of the Korean Peninsula.

 

In a tearful statement made before his trial, Warmbier told a gathering of reporters in Pyongyang he was offered a used car worth $10,000 if he could get a propaganda banner and was also told that if he was detained and didn’t return, $200,000 would be paid to his mother in the form of a charitable donation.

To be sure, this is not the first release obtained from the Kim regime: in November 2014, U.S. spy chief James Clapper went to Pyongyang to bring home Matthew Miller, who had ripped up his visa when entering the country and was serving a six-year sentence on an espionage charge, and Korean-American missionary Kenneth Bae, who had been sentenced to 15 years for alleged anti-government activities. Jeffrey Fowle, another U.S. tourist from Ohio detained for six months at about the same time as Miller, was released just before that and sent home on a U.S. government plane. Fowle left a Bible in a local club hoping a North Korean would find it, which is considered a criminal offense in North Korea.

But in this case, all prop go to Rodman, who as we concluded last night, "if he manages to persuade Kim to end his nuclear program – something no other US politicians has achieved – it will mark quite a dramatic departure in style and substance to US foreign policy." He still has a few days left on his trip….

Some photos of Rodman, provided by his North Korean trip sponsor, PotCoin http://pic.twitter.com/fS1E7U85Lq

— Hunter Schwarz (@hunterschwarz) June 13, 2017

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